Lecture 5

ON
MATH-208
(Probability and Statistics)

BY
Kiran Kumar Shrestha
Department of Mathematics
School of Science
Kathmandu University

TO
CIVE
Year-II, Semester-II

Topics Covered

 Probability- Introduction
 Some terms
 Mutually exclusive events
 Addition law of probability
 Independent events

Date: Monday, Sep. 23, 2024

Chapter – II Probability

Some Terms Used in Probability

Random Experiment
Random experiments are those type of experiments the outcome of which cannot be predicted in advance.
For example-

 Tossing of a coin
 Throwing of dice
 Result in an exam
 Disintegration of radioactive nuclei
 Collision between gas molecules
 Occurrence of accidents
 Infection due to a disease

Sample Space
The collection of all possible outcomes of a random experiment expressed in the form of a set is called
sample space. It is denoted as Ω.
For example-
Sample space of tossing of a coin is Ω = {𝐻, 𝑇}
Sample space of tossing of two coins - Ω = {(𝐻, 𝐻), (𝐻, 𝑇), (𝑇, 𝐻), (𝑇, 𝑇)}
Sample space of tossing of three coins - Ω = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}
Sample space of throwing of a dice - Ω = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Sample space of throwing of two die -
Ω = { (1,1), (1,2) … … … … … … (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2) … … … … … . (2,6),
……………..
(6,1), (6, 2), … … … … … … (6,6)}

Trial
Carrying a random experiment for a time is called a trial.

Events
An event associated with a random experiment can be defined as the subset of sample space, the elements
of which are observed as outcome in a particular trial of the random experiment. It is denoted by capital
letters.
To each event we can associate a measure called probability which describes how likely is it to occur.
There are different forms of events, such as, simple event, compound event, equally likely event, mutually
exclusive event, independent event, dependent event, etc.

Probability

Let A be an event defined in sample space Ω of a random experiment, then probability of event A is
denoted as P(A) and is defined as
𝑛(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑛(Ω)

Notes:
#.1 It lies between 0 and 1, i.e., 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1.
#.2 𝑃(Ω) = 1.
#.3 𝑃(𝜙) = 0, 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝜙 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡.
#.4 The probability associated with a single event is called simple probability.
#.5 Let P(A) denote probability of occurrence of an event A, then probability of its non-occurrence is
denoted by 𝑃(𝐴̅) 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝐴𝐶 ) and

𝑃(𝐴̅) = 𝑃(𝐴𝐶 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)

#.6 The probability associated with two or more events is called compound probability. If there is more
than one event to be considered then we can perform following operations on them- union, intersection,
difference, symmetric difference.
#.7 Let A and B be any two events defined on same sample space, then
#.a the probability of occurrence of both events A and B is denoted as

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
#.b the probability of occurrence of either event or event B or both (i.e., at least one of the two
events) is denoted as
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
#.c the probability of occurrence of A only without B is denoted as

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅) 𝑜𝑟, 𝑃(𝐴 − 𝐵)

#.d the probability of occurrence of B only without A is denoted as

𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵) 𝑜𝑟, 𝑃(𝐵 − 𝐴)

 #.e the probability of occurrence of neither A nor B is denoted as

𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅) 𝑜𝑟, 𝑃(𝐴

̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
∪ 𝐵) 𝑜𝑟, 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
#.f the probability of occurrence of exactly one of the two events A and B is denoted as

𝑃((𝐴 − 𝐵) ∪ (𝐵 − 𝐴)) 𝑜𝑟, 𝑃((𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅) ∪ (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵)) 𝑜𝑟, 𝐴Δ𝐵

Calculation of probabilities of simple events

#.I In tossing of two coins-
Let A be event of getting same face on both coins, then
𝑛(𝐴) 2 1
𝐴 = {(𝐻, 𝐻), (𝑇, 𝑇)} 𝑛(𝐴) = 2, 𝑃(𝐴) = = =
𝑛(Ω) 4 2
#.B Let B be event of getting at least one head, then
𝑛(𝐵) 3
𝐵 = {(𝐻, 𝐻), (𝐻, 𝑇), (𝑇, 𝐻)}, 𝑛(𝐵) = 3, 𝑃(𝐵) = =
𝑛(Ω) 4
#.II In tossing of three coins
#.A Let A be event of getting head and tail alternately, then
𝑛(𝐴) 2 1
𝐴 = {𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇} 𝑆𝑜 𝑛(𝐴) = 2, 𝑃(𝐴) = = =
𝑛(Ω) 8 4
#.B Let B be event of getting more number of heads than tail, then
𝑛(𝐵) 3
𝐵 = {𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻}𝑆𝑜 𝑛(𝐵) = 3, 𝑃(𝐵) = =
𝑛(Ω) 8
#.C Let C be event of getting at the most one head, then
𝑛(𝐶) 4 1
𝐶 = { 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}𝑆𝑜 𝑛(𝐶) = 4, 𝑃(𝐶) = = =
𝑛(Ω) 8 2
#.III In throwing of a dice
#.A Let A be event of getting odd values, then
𝑛(𝐴) 3 1
𝐴 = {1,3,5} 𝑛(𝐴) = 3 𝑆𝑜, 𝑃(𝐴) = = =
𝑛(Ω) 6 2
#B. Let B be event of getting value divisible by 3
𝑛(𝐵) 2 1
𝐵 = {3,6} 𝑆𝑜 𝑛(𝐵) = 2 𝑃(𝐵) = = =
𝑛(Ω) 6 3
#.III In throwing of two die
#.A Let A be event of getting sum of 10 then
 𝑛(𝐴) 3 1
𝐴 = {(4,6), (5,5), (6,4)}, 𝑆𝑜, 𝑛(𝐴) = 3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴) = = =
𝑛(Ω) 36 12
#.B Let B be event of getting value in first dice greater than that in second.

𝐵 = {(2,1), (3,1), (3,2), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5)}
So,
𝑛(𝐵) 15 5
𝑃(𝐵) = = =
𝑛(Ω) 36 12

Mutually Exclusive Events

Defn- Two events are said to be mutually exclusive events if occurrence of one implies the non-
occurrence of another event.
Example-

 'pass' and 'fail' are two mutually exclusive events in result related experiment
 'male' and 'female' genders are mutually exclusive events
 In tossing of a coin 'head' and 'tail' are mutually exclusive events

Notes:
#.1 In Venn diagram mutually exclusive events are represented as ......

#.2 If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝜙) = 0
and
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
Proof:
𝑛(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) 𝑛(𝐴) + 𝑛(𝐵) 𝑛(𝐴) 𝑛(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = = = + = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑛(Ω) 𝑛(Ω) 𝑛(Ω) 𝑛(Ω)
#.3 Since events A and 𝐴̅ are mutually exclusive and their union is the sample space, i.e.,

𝐴 ∪ 𝐴̅ = Ω
So,

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐴̅) = 𝑃(Ω)

Or,

𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1
(due to mutually exclusiveness)
So,

𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)
#.4 Since events A-B and 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 are mutually exclusive and their union is event A, i.e.,
(𝐴 − 𝐵) ∪ (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝐴

So,

𝑃((𝐴 − 𝐵) ∪ (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)) = 𝑃(𝐴)

Or,

𝑃(𝐴 − 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)

(due to mutually exclusiveness)
So,

𝑃(𝐴 − 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Similarly,

𝑃(𝐵 − 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Addition Law of Probability

Statement- Let A and B be any two events defined on the same sample space, then addition law
probability states that
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
Proof:
It is seen from diagram that events A-B and B are mutually exclusive and their union is event 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵, i.e.,
(𝐴 − 𝐵) ∪ 𝐵 = 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵
So,

𝑃((𝐴 − 𝐵) ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)

Or,
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 − 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐵)
Or,
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐵)
Hence,

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Note: For three events A, B and C

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)

Independent Events
Defn-
Two events A and B are said to be independent events if the probability of occurrence of one is not
affected by occurrence of non-occurrence of another event.
Note: If A and B are independent events then
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
(Proof - Later)
Solved Problems:

#. (I)
The probability that a boy will get scholarship is 0.75 and that a girl will get independent of boy is
0.72. What is the probability that at least one of them will get scholarship?
Solution-
Let B be event of getting scholarship by a boy and G be event that girl will get scholarship.
Given 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.75 𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑃(𝐺) = 0.72
Now,
𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑟𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝) = 𝑃(𝐵 ∪ 𝐺)

= 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐺) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐺)

= 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐺) − 𝑃(𝐵). 𝑃(𝐺)
(due to independence)
= 0.75 + 0.72 − 0.75 × 0.72 = 0.93

#.(II)

Solution-
Let A1 be event of getting white ball from Urn1
Let A2 be event of getting white ball from Urn2
Here,
𝑛(𝐴1 ) 6 3
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = = =
𝑛(Ω) 16 8
𝑛(𝐴2 ) 8 2
𝑃(𝐴2 ) = = =
𝑛(Ω) 20 5
Now,

𝑃(𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ). 𝑃(𝐴2 )

(due to independence)
 3 2 3
= × =
8 5 20

#. (III)

Solution-
(a) Let A be event of getting all red balls, then
7
𝑛(𝐴) 𝐶4 7
𝑃(𝐴) = = 12 𝐶
=
𝑛(Ω) 4 99
(b) Let B be event of getting 2 red and 2 white balls, then

7 5
𝑛(𝐵) 𝐶2 × 𝐶2 14
𝑃(𝐵) = = 12 𝐶
=
𝑛(Ω) 4 33

#. (IV)
A committee is 5 is to selected from a group of 8 boys and 7 girls. Find probability that in the
committee there will (a) 3 boys and 2 girls (b) no girl (c) at least one girl.
Solution-
(a) Let A be event of selecting 3 boys and 2 girls, then
8 7
𝑛(𝐴) 𝐶3 × 𝐶2 56 × 21 56
𝑃(𝐴) = = 15 𝐶
= =
𝑛(Ω) 5 3003 143
#.(b) Let B be selecting no girl, then
8 7
𝑛(𝐵) 𝐶5 × 𝐶0 56 × 1 8
𝑃(𝐵) = = 15 𝐶
= =
𝑛(Ω) 5 3003 429
(c) Let C be event of selecting at least one girl, then
Method I

𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙) = 𝑃((1 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙) ∪ (2 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠) ∪ (3 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠) ∪ (4 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠) ∪ (5 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠))

= 𝑃(1 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙) + 𝑃(2 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠) + 𝑃(3 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠) + 𝑃(4 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠) + 𝑃(5 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠)
 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7
𝐶4 × 𝐶1 𝐶3 × 𝐶2 𝐶2 × 𝐶3 𝐶1 × 𝐶4 𝐶0 × 𝐶5
= 15 𝐶
+ 15 𝐶
+ 15 𝐶
+ 15 𝐶
+ 15 𝐶
5 5 5 5 5

421
=
429
Method II-
8
𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙) = 1 − (𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 ′𝑏 ′ 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑣𝑒)
429
429 − 8 421
= =
429 429

#. (V)

A media salesperson is selected randomly. Find probability that he/she makes annual sales
commission (a) between Rs. 5000 and Rs. 10000 (b) (b) less than Rs. 15,000 (c) more than Rs. 20,000
(d) between Rs. 15,000 and Rs. 25,000
Ans. (
(a)
𝒏(𝑨) 𝟐𝟓 𝟏
𝑷(𝑨) = = =
𝒏(𝛀) 𝟑𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟐
(b)
𝟏𝟓 + 𝟐𝟓 + 𝟑𝟓 𝟕𝟓 𝟏
𝑷(𝑩) = = =
𝟑𝟎𝟎 𝟑𝟎𝟎 𝟒
(c)
𝟕𝟎 + 𝟑𝟎 𝟏
𝑷(𝑪) = =
𝟑𝟎𝟎 𝟑
(d)
𝟏𝟐𝟓 + 𝟕𝟎 𝟏𝟗𝟓
𝑷(𝑫) = =
𝟑𝟎𝟎 𝟑𝟎𝟎
Note:
For frequency distribution,

𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑓
𝑃(𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 ) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑁

(Note: This ratio is also called relative frequency.)