Republic‘of the Philippines Bontoc, Mountain Province PROJECT MANAGEMENT Module 4 of 7 ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT Aiza Grace B. Caligtan Course Facilitator Numbers: 09661734360/0946623749 1 enger: IceZha Grace Bandoc Caligian Conta Jaccy B. Luzada Engineering Department First Semester, S. ¥, 2021-2022INTRODUCTION Managing projects is one of the very important aspects of engineering practice. It is not just a requirement of the course but also in the field. The principles are also applicable in our daily activities. With this, I want to remind you again to take this lesson seriously. ‘As you journey through the moduie, I encourage you to answer the pretest portion first before proceeding to the next part. Take the lessons one at a time. Each lesson is a requisite for the next lesson. This module covers 3 lessons. 1. Project Scheduling, 2. Deterministic Time estimates 3. Probabilistic ‘Time estimates - ‘This module is intended for 4 weeks of the course. Read and understand the topics carefully and do the activities in the comfort of your homes but remember to finish the said activities within the span of 4 weeks. For clarifications, you may contact your teacher through the email address, or messenger account indicated on the cover page of this module. LEARNING OUTCOMES At the end of the module, you should be able to: 1. correctly draw a PERT/CPM network model; 2. determine the right critical path; 3. construct Gantt chart from the given activities of a project; and 4. analyze and determine the critical path using network analysis and linear programming, PRE-TEST Alternate Response Test. Read and understand the statements carefully. On the space In project managem _event. aetna eee 4. Gantt chart is used in project scheduling. ‘5. PERT is an abbreviation of Project Evaluation Review Technique E 16. Critical path is the longest path. It determines expected project duration. |7. Critical activities are on the critical path. - [BIF time estimates can be made with a high degree of confidence that actual times are fairly certain, we say the estimates are deterministic. | Ive [9. Most likely time means the most probable amount of time required 10.By using PERT or CPM, managers are able to obtain a graphical display ] of project activities. }LESSON 1: Project Scheduling Objectives: ‘At the end of the lesson, you should be able to: 1. construct Gantt charts correctly; and 2. draw network diagrams properly. LET’S ENGAGE A Project, as we have discussed previously can be simple or complicated depending on its nature and purpose. Just like our daily undertakings, sometimes we get too busy with so many schedules to beat. As students, there are times when school requirements were given at the same time and you find it hard beating the deadline. Did you have such experiences of difficulty in managing you time? How did you able to manage it? This lesson talks about project scheduling but the concepts you will learn may also be applicable in your personal life As you start your journey into this module, again I want to remind you to take the lessons one at a time. Familiarize yourselves with the different terms and labels so that you will save time from going over it again when you are already in the next lessons. Project planning is very crucial part in project management. As we have discussed earlier, it is important to balance the project management constraints to be able to attain a quality project. In project planning, one thing to consider is the project scheduling. What is the use of project scheduling? From the word “scheduling”, we are to assign each activity the enough time/ duration. However, we should also consider the sequence of each activity. If you are to ques, are there any activities that can start concurrently? What are the activities needed to be done first before the next activity can proceed? Since time is one of the constraints of project management, scheduling must be done properly so as not to delay the completion of the project (as we have said in our previous discussion that a change in one of the constraints will affect the others, overall affecting the project quality). Remember the three constraints of the project: Time, Cost, and Scope. How then are we going to schedule projects? LET’S TALK ABOUT IT Project Scheduling Project scheduling can be done through network techniques which includes the PERT and the CPM. What are these?A convenient analytical and visual technique of PERT and CPM prove extremely valuable in assisting the managers in managing the projects. PERT stands for Project Evaluation and Review Technique developed during 1950's. The technique was developed and used in conjunction with the planning and designing of the Polaris missile project CPM stands for Critical Path Method which was developed by Dupont Company and applied first to the construction projects in the chemical industry, (Catal Path Met al by FE pen PERT Graphically displays project activities. It estimates how long the project will take. CPM Indicates most critical activities. It shows where delays will not affect project Since these two use same calculations and almost similar, these two were later combined, thus, PERT-CPM, Using these techniques, a network is being drawn or developed projecting the schedules of the different activities in a project ‘Though both PERT and CPM techniques have similarity in terms of concepts, the basic difference is, PERT is used for analysis of Project scheduling problems. CPM has single estimate and PERT has three time estimates for activities and uses probability theory to find the chance of reaching the scheduled time. What is a network? Network is a graphical portrayal of activities and event. It shows dependency relationships between tasks/ activities in a project. It clearly shows tasks that must precede (precedence) or follow (succeeding) other tasks in a logical manner. It is a clear representation of plan ~ a powerful tool for planning and controlling project Why it is called Network? This is because, the precedence or interdependencies of the activities resembles a network. Here is an example of a simple network: survey.questionaire How is this being done? Actually, there are simpler network than this especially if cach of the activities directly precede only one activity. There could also be a more complex one especially for big projects. But before that, let's first talk about how this network is being done. The Network Diagram Before we construct a network diagram these terms are very important for you to remember. Components of PERT/CPM Network 1. Aetivity- any portions of projects (tasks) which required by the project, uses up resources and consumes time - may involve labor, paper work, contractual negotiations, machinery operations and others. It is represented by arrow in the network, 2. Event- the beginning or ending points of one or more activities, instantaneous point in time, and is also called nodes. Network (precedence) diagram — diagram of project activities that shows sequential relationships by the use of arrows and nodes. It is the combination of all project activities and the events. SUCCESSOR ~~. PRECEEDING ~\ Dummy Activity - an imaginary activity which does not consume any resource and time. These are simply used to represent a connection between events in order to maintain a logic in the network. It is represented by a dotted line.Path ~ the sequence of activities that leads from the starting node to the finishing node. Critical path ~ the longest path; determines expected project duration, Critical activities — activities on the critical path Slack - is the allowable slippage for path; the difference the length of path and the length of critical path. Aside from these terms, it also important for you to understand the emphasis of logic in Network Construction: . + Construction of network should be based on logical or technical dependencies among activities be started, the activity ‘prepare Example, before activity ‘approve drawing’ drawing’ must be completed + Common error- building network on the basis of time logic (a feeling for proper sequence) Example: Procue Deactivate Remove od ina Procure pipe oe mes edad ¢ i 0 0 6 Deactivate Remove olf Insta nes vise new sine pee pel e This simply mean that you cannot draw the network without knowing the activities and their interdependencies. For example, you cannot have the approval of the drawing/plan/layout before you prepare it, or before you draw it. It is not logical. ‘Thus, we have the rules in the construction of the network diagram. 1. Each activity is represented by one and only one arrow in the network, No single activity can be represented twice in the network. 2. No two activities can be identified by the same head and tail events. This means that any two activity can have the same tail event but each must have different end event 3. The event numbered 1 is the start event and the event with highest number is the end event. Before an activity can be undertaken, alll activities preceding, it must be completed. That is, the activities must follow a logical sequence (or interrelationship) between activities4. In assigning numbers or events, there should not be any duplication of event numbers in the network. 5. Dummy activities must be used only if it is necessary to reduce the complexity of the network, * 6. A network should have only one start event and one end event, ‘The following are also the errors to be avoided in constructing a network: 1. This means that two activities starting from a tail event must not have a same end event. To ensure this, it is absolutely necessary to introduce a dummy activity, 2. In a network, there should be only one start event and one ending event. & bemer ee 3. Looping error should not be formed in a network, as it represents performance of activities in a cyclic manner.4. The direction of arrows should flow from left to right avoiding mixing of direction. Below are some conventions of network diagram: a. Activity B can be performed only after completing activity A and activity C can be performed only after completing activity B. A B c b, Activities B and C can start simultaneously only after completing A. ©. Activities A and B must be completed before start of activity C. = A a A d. Activity C must start only after completing activities A and B. But activity D can start Ne after completion of Activity B. a 7 EXAMPLES: Example 1- A simple network Consider the fist of tour activities for making, simple proxtuct mediate decensors Activity Description tn 1 Componeat b seine product Ma Immediate predecessors tor a particular activity are the activities that, when completed, enable the start of the activity in question.From this example, : © Work can start on activities A and B anytime, since neither of these activities depends upon the completion of prior activities. + Activity C cannot be started until activity B has been completed © Activity D cannot be started until both activities A and C have been completed. «The graphical representation is referred to as the PERT/CPM network Network of Four Activities Ares indicate project activities Nodes correspond to the beginning and ending of activities Example 2 Develop the network for a project with following activities and immediate predecesso Activity Immediate predecessor A B - « B db AO BE € 1 C G DEF Try to do for the first five (A,B,C,D,E) activitiesNetwork of first five activities ; EE ox — SN We need to introduce a dummy activity We need to introduce a dummy activity to indicate that activity may start if and only if A and C are completed (A, C are predecessors of D). Network of Seven Activities @—_+—_@ > _@« B dummy, E = cGy *Note how the network correctly identifies D, F, and F as the immediate predecessors tor activity G *Dummy activities is used to identity precedence relationships correctly and_ to eliminate possible confusion of two or more activities having the same starting and ending nodes *Dumnyy activities have no resources (time, labor, machinery, etc) purpose is to PRESERVE LOGIC of the networkEXAMPLES OF THE USE OF DUMMY ACTIVITY CU | | | S\N, | | | | J Drpiairce rare Activity c not WRONG ! required for e . | x2 ee | paeiens ewer ) A ( | O==0F=="0 | 2-0 4 | ' Paw ee OF =="-O=="0 as WRONG - RIGHT ¥ WRONG!!! RIGHT!!! d a d 1 Ve CQ 1 NL 1 S b : e b : LO 20O--OF | i I \ sgt £@) a precedes d. aand b precede e, band ¢ precede f (a does not precede f)| Locate new | facilities Interview staff | Hire and train staff Select and order | furniture | | Remodel and install phones Move in/startup The Gantt chart is a popular visual tool for planning and scheduling simple projects. [tenables a manager to initially schedule project activities and then ta monitor progress over time by comparing planned progress to actual progress. Figure above illustrates a Gantt chart for a bank’s plan to establish a new direct marketing department. To prepare the chart, the vice president in charge of the project had to first identify the major activities that would be required. Next, time estimates for each activity were made, and the sequence of activities was determined. Once completed, the chart indicated which activities were to occur, their planned duration, and when they were to occur. Then, as the project progressed, the manager was able to see which activities were on schedule and which were behind schedule. However, Gantt charts fail to reveal certain relationships among activities that can be crucial to effective project management. For instance, if one of the early activities in a project suffers a delay, it would be important for the manager to be able to easily determine which later activities would result in a delay. Conversely, some activities may safely be delayed without affecting the overall project schedule. The Gantt chart does not directly reveal this. On more complex projects, it is often used in conjunction with a network diagram, defined in the previous discussion in this module.IT’S YOUR TURN Before you proceed with more details about network techniques, kindly do the activity below. Use a separate sheet for your answers. [ACTIVITY 4.1 | INSTRUCTION: Do the following in the comfort of your homes but follow the time scheduled for the submission of the said activity. 1, Identify a simple project you wish to do or one simple project you have conducted. Identify the steps(activities) how you will make/made it. | Indicate predecessors of each activity (if there’s any). Construct a Gantt | Chart. | 2. Construct the network diagram of the identified activities. Activity Immediate Completion predecessors Time (week) A = B = 6 c A 4 D A 3 p A 1 F E 4 G DE 4 | H BC 12 1 GH 2 | Total ...... 51 | This information indicates that the total time required to complete activities is 51 weeks. However, we can see from the network that several of the activities can be conducted simultaneously (A and B, for example). eeLESSON 2: Deterministic Time Estimates Objective: At the end of the lesson, you should be able to: 1. perform analysis of the networks with deterministic times. LET’S ENGAGE Now let us include time estimates in the analysis. It is getting more challenging ut | hope you will find it enjoyable, LET’S TALK ABOUT IT ‘The main determinant of the way PERT and CPM networks are analyzed and interpreted is whether activity time estimates are probabilistic or deterministic. If time estimates can be made with a high degree of confidence that actual times are fairly certain, we say the estimates are deterministic. If actual times are subject to variation, we say the estimates are probabilistic. Probabilistic time estimates must include an indication of the extent of probable variation. ‘This section describes analysis of networks with deterministic time estimates. One of the best ways to gain an understanding of the nature of network analysis is to consider a simple example. Example 1 Given the additional information on the bank network determine a, The length of each path. b. ‘The critical path c. The expected length of the project d. The amount of slack time for each path. a. As shown in the following table, the path lengths are 18 weeks, 20 weeks, and 14 weeks. : b. Path 1-2-5-6 is the longest path (20 weeks), so it is the critical path.c. The expected length of the project is equal to the length of the critical path (i. 20 weeks) d. We find the slack for each path by subtracting its length from the length of the critical path, as shown in the last column of the table. (Note: It is sometimes desirable to know the slack time associated with activities. The next section describes a method for obtaining those slack times.) Critical Path \ | Path Length | IN (weeks) . [1-2-3-4-5-6 \ 18 2 Computing Algorithm Many real-life project networks are much larger than the simple network as illustrated in the preceding example; they often contain hundreds or even thousands of activities. Because the necessary computations can become exceedingly complex and time-consuming, large networks are generally analyzed by computer programs instead of manually. Planners use an algorithm to develop four pieces of information about the network activities: ES, the earliest time an activity can start, assuming all preceding activities start as early as possible. EF, the earliest time the activity can finish. LS, the latest time the activity can start and not delay the project. LF, the latest time the activity can finish and not delay the project. Once these values have been determined, they can be used to find 1. Expected project duration, 2. Slack time, and 3. The critical path. ‘The three examples that follow illustrate how to compute those values using the precedence diagram of Example 1 ‘Compute the earliest starting time and earliest finishing time for each activity in the diagram shown in example 1 Begin by placing brackets at the two ends of each starting activity:i lo J Nar We want to determine and place in the brackets for each activity the earliest starting time, ES, and the earliest finishing time, EF, for every activity, and put them in, brackets, as follows ooNLES t EF} \ S27 ge Do this for all activities, beginning at the left side of the precedence diagram and moving to the right side. Once ES has been determined for each activity, EF can be found by adding the ity time, t, to ES: ES +t = EF. acti Use an ES of 0 for all starting activities. Thus, activities 1-2 and 1-3 are assigned ivities: ES values of 0. This permits computation of the EF for each of these act EF. =0+8+8and EFi2=0+4=4 wom ‘The EF time for an activity becomes the ES time for the next activity to follow it in the diagram. Hence, because activity 1-2 has an EF time of 8, both activities 2-4 and 2-5 have ES times of 8. Similarly, activity 3-5 has an FS time of 4SOO JO ‘This permits calculation of the EF times for these activities: Fas = 8 + 6 = EF25 = 8+ 11 = 19; and EFas= 4 +9 =13. 5 sQU#Q Cs 6) A LY NN aH 7a A NY \w ‘The ES for activity 4-5 is the EF time of activity 2-4, which is 14. Using this value, we find the EF for activity 4-5 is 17; EF 4-5 = 14+ 3= 17 8 s@ e Gy fw In order to determine the ES for activity 5-6, we must realize that activity 5-6 cannot start until every activity that precedes it is finished. Therefore, the largest of the EF times for the three activities that precede activity 5-6 determines ES 5-6, Hence, the ES for activity 5-6 is 19.\oe- . Gy ne a <~C Ss sy A bi Ns! ‘Then the EF for the last activity, 5-6, is 20; EF 5-6 = 19 + 1 = 20. Note that the latest EF is the project duration. Thus, the expected length of the project is 20 weeks. Computation of earliest starting and finishing times is aided by two simple rules: 1. The earliest finish time for any activity is equal to its earliest start time pus its expected duration, t EF=ES+t 2. BS for activities at nodes with one entering arrow is equal to EF of the entering arrow. ES for activities leaving nodes with multiple entering arrows is equal to the largest EF of the entering arrow. Computation of the latest starting and finishing times is aided by the use of two rules: 1. The latest starting time for each activity is equal to its latest finishing time minus its expected duration: EF =ES-t 2. For nodes with one leaving arrow, LF for arrows entering that node equals the LS of the leaving arrow. For nodes with multiple leaving arrows, LF for arrows entering that node equals the smallest LS of leaving arrows. Finding ES and EF times involves a forward pass through the network; finding LS and LF times involves a backward pass through the network. Hence, we must begin with the EF of the last activity and use that time as the LF for the last activity. Then we obtain the LS for the last activity by subtracting its expected duration from its LF. Compute the latest finishing and starting times for the precedence diagram developed in the Example. We must add the LS and LF times to the brackets on the diagram. s Hl oles eave cy =) NS NYBegin by setting the LF time of the last activity equal to the EF of that activity. Thus, - LF5.6 = EFs« 7 20 weeks Obtain the LS time for activity 5-6 by subtracting the activity time, t, from the LF time: L856 = LFs6- t= 20- Mark these values on the diagram: 3ok oe é : é ‘The LS time of 19 for activity 5-6 now becomes the LF time for each of the activities that precedes activity 5-6. This permits determination of the LS times for each of those activities: Subtract the activity time from the LF to obtain the LS time for the activity. The LS time for activity 3-5 is 19 - 9 = 10. Whore Next, the LS for activity 4-5, which is 16, becomes the LF for activity 2-4, and the LS for activity 3-5, which is 10, becomes the LF for activity 1-3. Using these values, you find the LS for each of these activities by subtracting the activity time from the LF time. — See10 16 \o ss Q = BI a ‘8 % ‘oe ; x ; f 7 o- a Poa O NLA xy A859 20 0 oe “O\ 19 20, g w 9 F - 0 3YO e Vf ‘The LF for activity 1-2 is the smaller of the two LS times of the activities that 1-2 precedes. Hence, the LF time for activity 1-2 is 8. The reason you use the smaller time is that activity 1-2 must finish at a time that permits all following activities to start no later than their LS times. ‘Once you have determined the LF time of activity 1-2, find its LS time by subtracting the activity time of 8 from the LF time of 8. Hence, the LS time is 0. 10 16) 6 14! (ay yy 7 : eo 19 (sy ef S87 797 20 8) ONT 19 20, x 9 ~ Computing Slack Time: ‘The slack time can be computed in either of two ways: Slack = LS - ES or LF ~ EF ‘The critical path using this computing algorithm is denoted by activities with zero slack time. Knowledge of slack times provides managers with information for planning the allocation of scarce resources and for directing control efforts toward those activities cere eee eee oc ees ee ee eeeee eeethat might be most susceptible to delaying the project. In this regard, it is important to recognize that the activity slack times are based on the assumption that all of the activities on the same path will be started as early as possible and not exceed their expected times. Furthermore, if two activities are both on the same path (e.g., activities 2-4 and 4-5 in the preceding example) and have the same slack (e.g., two weeks), this will be the total slack available to both. In essence, the activities have shared slack. Hence, if the first activity uses all the slack, there will be zero slack for alll following activities on that same path. ‘The critical path using this computing algorithm is denoted by activities with zero slack time. Thus, the table indicates that activities 1-2, 2-5, and 5-6 are all critical activities, which agrees with the results of the intuitive approach demonstrated in Example above, ‘To Compute slack times for the preceding example, either the starting times or the finishing times can be used. Suppose, we choose the starting times. Using ES times computed in Example 2 and LS times computed in Example 3, slack times are. (LS - ES) Activity ts ES Slack 1-2 Q 0 9 1-3 6 0 6 24 10 & 2 2 8 8 0 a5 10 4 6 45 16 14 2 5-6 19 19 0 Activities that have a slack of zero are on the critical path. Hence, the critical path is 1-2-5-6.. IT’S YOUR TURN ACTVITY 4. Using the computing algorithm, determine the slack times for the following AOA | diagram. Identify the activities that are on the critical path. Use a separate sheet for | your solution.LESSON 3: Probabilistic Time estimates Objective: At the end of the lesson, you should be able to: 1. perform analysis of the networks with probabilistic times. LET’S ENGAGE ‘The preceding discussion assumed that activity times were known and not subject to variation. While that condition exists in some situations, there are many others where it does not. Consequently, those situations require a probabilistic approach. The probabilistic approach involves three time estimates for each activity instead of one + Optimistic time ‘Time required under optimal conditions + Pessimistic time Time required under worst conditions, + Most likely time Most probable length of time that will be required LET’S TALK ABOUT IT Managers or others with knowledge about the project can make these time estimates. ‘The beta distribution is generally used to describe the inherent variability in time estimates (see Figure). Although there is no real theoretical justification for using the beta distribution, it has certain features that make it attractive in practice: The distribution can be symmetrical or skewed to either the right or the left according to the nature of a particular activity; the mean and variance of the distribution can be readily obtained from the three time estimates listed above; and the distribution is unimodal with a high concentration of probability surrounding the most likely time estimate. Beta Distribution t, t. Activity Optimistic Most likely start time time (mode) Expected Time Of special interest in network analysis are the average or expected time for each activity, &, and the variance of each activity time, +, The expected time of an activity, te, is a weighted average of the three-time estimates:t, = expected time t, = optimistic time t,, = most likely time t, = pessimistic time Variance ‘The expected duration of a path (i.e., the path means) is equal to the sum of the expected times of the activities on that path: Path mean ~ E of expected times of activities on the path ‘The standard deviation of each activity’s time is estimated as one-sixth of the difference between the pessimistic and optimistic time estimates. (Analogously, nearly all of the area under a normal distribution lies within three standard deviations of the mean, which is a range of six standard deviations.) We find the variance by squaring the standard deviation. Thus, 2 2 (ty a t) a ‘The size of the variance reflects the degree of uncertainty associated with an activity’s time: The larger the variance, the greater the uncertainty. It is also desirable to compute the standard deviation of the expected time for each path. We can do this by summing the variances of the activities on a path and then taking the square root of that number; that is, Spat = (Variances of activities on path) Example 1 Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic time ~~ time _ tiene | “9-4-6 LE)‘The network diagram for a project is shown in the accompanying figure, with three-time estimates for each activity. Activity times are in weeks. Do the following: 1, Compute the expected time for each activity and the expected duration for cach path. Identify the critical path. 3. Compute the variance of each activity and the variance and standard deviation of each path w Solution’ a, To compute for the path means, we first compute for expected time of each of the activities. In here, we have atleast 3 paths right... path abe, def, and ghi. So, we use the formula for expected time for each activity. For example, in activity a, we compute it to be 2.83, 4 for b, and 3.17 for c. Thus, the path mean will be the sum of the three expected time of activities abe which is equal to 10 Te 100 To = 16.0 Topi= 13.50 b. The path that has the longest expected duration is the critical path. Because path d-e-f has the largest path total, itis the critical path a TUMES fe + Ate = t t= See Path Activity ty ty t 6 Path Total abc a 1 3 4 283 > 24 é 2 3 5 3a7 cet a 3 4 5 400 e038 ao} 0 1 5 z 8 7.00 ote 9 2 3 6 333 7 of 8 co |e i 3 4 6 4a7c. Knowledge of the expected path times and their standard deviations enables a manager to compute probabilistic estimates of the project completion time, such as these: ‘The probability that the project will be completed by a specified time. ‘The probability that the project will take longer than its scheduled completion time. TIMES : Pah Activity «ty ty eo abe a 1 3 4 4-186 = 9136 b 2 4 6 = atan= 108 | sae oss = 097 ¢ 2 3 56-2786 = 996 det 4 3 4 5 (5-386 = 4/96 e 3 5 7 @-3Pra6 sas} 36/36 = 1.00 1.00 t 5 79 57136 = 1636 oth q 2 3 8 6 ~ 27486 = 16196 h 4 6 Be 47 r86 we | ime <1 1.07 i 3 4 6 6 -37186= 996 Determining path probabilities The probability that a given path will be completed in a specified length of time can be determined using the formula: Z Specified time - Path mean Path standard deviation Z indicates how many standard deviations of the path distribution the specified tine is beyond the expected path duration. Probability / of completing \ the path by the specified time NN ~ ! 1 0 a Expected Specified path duration time ‘The more positive the value, the better. . PPR(A negative value of z indicates that the specified time is earlier than the expected path duration.) Once the value of z has been determined, it can be used to obtain the probability that the path will be completed by the specified time from Appendix B (attached), Table B. Note that the probability is equal to the area under the normal curve to the left of z, as illustrated in Figure above. If the value of z is + 3.00 or more, the path probability is close to 100 percent (for 2. = + 3.00, it is .9987). Hence, it is very likely the activities that make up the path will be completed by the specified time. For that reason, a useful rule of thumb is to treat the path probability as being equal to 100 percent if the value of z is + 3.00 or more. A project is not completed until all of its activities have been completed, not only those on the critical path. It sometimes happens that another path ends up taking more time to complete than the critical path, in which case the project runs longer than expected. Hence, it can be risky to focus exclusively on the critical path. Instead, one must consider the possibility that at least one other path will delay timely project completion. This requires determining the probability that all paths will finish by a specified time. ‘To do that, find the probability that each path will finish by the specified time, and then multiply those probabilities. The result is the probability that the project will be completed by the specified time. Independence Assumption that path duration times are independent of each other; requiring that activity times be independent, and that each activity is on only one path. It is important to note the assumption of independence. It is assumed that path duration times are independent of each other. In essence, this requires two things: Activity times are independent of each other, and each activity is only on one path. For activity times to be independent, the time for one must not be a function of the time of another; if two activities were always early or late together, they would not be considered independent ‘Thus, the assumption of independent paths is usually considered to be met if only a few activities in a large project are on multiple paths. Even then, common sense should govern the decision of whether the independence assumption is justified Example 2 Using the information from Example 1, answer the following questions: a. Can the paths be considered independent? Why? b. What is the probability that the project can be completed within 17 weeks of its start? c. What is the probability that the project will be completed within 15 weeks of its start?Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic time time time | “2-6 b Solution: a. Can the paths be considered independent? Why? Yes, the paths can be considered independent, since no activity is on more than one path and you have no information suggesting that any activity times are interrelated. b. What is the probability that the project can be completed within 17 weeks of its start? ‘To find the probability for a path you must first compute the value of z using Formula for the path. For example, for path d-e-f, we have 0.8413. ‘Turning to Appendix B, Table B, with z= + 1.00, you will find that the area under the curve to the left of zis .8413. The computations are summarized in the table. zo 17 - Expected path duration Probability of Completion Path Path standard deviation In 17 Weeks ab-c 710 20 1.00 9097 O-e-t 7 8413 718 iy 3 1.00 Cs 47 ~ 135 1.60 ae 4907 107 e Note: If the value of z exceeds + 3.00, treat the probability of completion as being equal to 1.000. Find the probability that each path will finish by the specified time, and then multiply those probabilities. The result is the probability that the project will be completed by the specified time. P (Finish by week 17) =P (Path a-b-c finish) * P (Path d-e-f finish) * P (Path g-h-i finish) 00 * .8413 * 1.00c. What is the probability that the project will be completed within 15 weeks of its start? The same procedure follows with 15 weeks specified time Paths d-e-f and g-h-i have z values that are less than + 3.00, From Appendix B, ‘Table B, the area to the left of z= - 1.00 is .1587, and the area to the left of z = + 1.40 is 9192, The joint probability of all finishing before week 15 is the product of their probabilities: 1.00{.1587) (9192) = 1459, 15 - Expected path duration Qe Probability of Completion in Path Path standard deviation wirwcae abo 45-1000 _ 645 1.00 7 det 2 1587 SAG Oe 1.00 ahi 15-1350 _ 449 9192 107 nea 1 Do the following as instructed. Use a separate sheet for your solution. | 1. A path in a network has three activities. Their standard deviations are 1.50, | 0.80, and 1.30. Find the path standard deviation. project completion time will be 50 weeks or less. | 2. Expected times in weeks and variances for the major activities of an R&D | project are depicted in the following table. Determine the probability that | Path Mean Variance A 16 Top B 1 ¢ 24 oat | | | Middle E 18 2 \POST ASSESSMENT : Do the following as instructed. Use a separate sheet for your answers. A. Multiple choices. Identify what is being asked/ describe in the Choose the letter that corresponds to your answer. 1. Three constraints that are often competing a. Quality, Time, Scope b. Cost, Scope, time c. Time, Scope, Quality d. Quality, cost, scope 2. It could mean increased cost and reduced scope. a, Tight budget b, Increased scope c. Tight time d. Increased time : 3. Time estimates can be made with a high degree of confidence that actual times are certain. a, probabilistic b. deterministic ©. ctitical d. time estimate 4. Represents the interdependencies and precedence relationship among the activities of the project a. Arrow diagram representation b. Triangle constraints ©. Event/node d. Activity 5. An activity of zero duration which represents no work a. Network b. Gantt chart ¢. Dummy . Critical path atement: . Given the following activity representations, predecessors and the corresponding duration of each activity, a. Draw the network diagram (be sure of the complete labeling) b. Solve for the overall time duration and determine the critical activities deterministic time estimates. c. Highlight/ emphasize the critical path on the network diagram as identified in (b) “ACTIVITY ~~] PREDECESSOR DURATION/ TIME (UN WEEKS, q —C. For each of the following network diagrams, determine both the critical path and the expected project duration. The numbers on the arrows represent expected activity times. a REFERENCES: Amatya, N.B. (n.d.). Network problem CPM & Pert. Retrieved from Slideshare.net. Stevenson, W. J. (2015). Operations management. 12% ed. 2 Penn Plaza, New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Education. :