PROBABILITY-3 (CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY & MULTIPLICATION THEOREM ) M AM

COMPLEMENT AND ADDITION RULES

Theorem 1 If Ac is the event complementary to A, then P ( A c ) = 1 − P ( A )

Theorem 2 Addition law for two events : If A and B are any two events in a sample space S, then
P ( A  B) = P ( A ) + P (B) − P ( AB )

Venn Diagrams

Some simple combinations o the events (shaded), and their expressions are demonstrated
below; the rectangle denoting the sample space S.

A B
A
B
AB AB

A B
A  (B  C ) = ( A  B )  ( A  C )

A
A B B

(
A B = A B ) AB  AC = ( A  B)  ( A  C)

Note:
(i) The opposite of “at least A or B” is neither A nor B i.e. A  B = A  B
( )
P ( A  B) + P A  B = 1 .

P ( A  B) + P ( A  B) = 1

(ii) For any two events A and B, P (exactly one of A, B occurs)

( ) ( )
= P A  B + P B  A = P ( A ) + P (B) − 2P ( A  B)
= P ( A  B ) − P ( A  B ) = P ( A c  Bc ) − P ( A c  Bc )
(iii) P (at least two of A, B, C occur)
= P (B  C) + P (C  A ) + P ( A  B) − 2P ( A  B  C)

(iv) P (exactly two of A, B, C occur)

= P (B  C) + P (c  A ) + P ( A  B) − 3P ( A  B  C)

(v) P (exactly one of A, B, C occurs)

= P ( A ) + P (B) + P (C) − 2P (B  C) − 2P (C  A ) − 2P ( A  B ) + 3P ( A  B  C)

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PROBABILITY-3 (CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY & MULTIPLICATION THEOREM ) M AM

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY & MULTIPLICATION THEOREM

The multiplication theorem calculates the probability of joint occurrence of events A and B
when the conditional probability is assumed to be known (from additional experiments).
Let A and B be two events associated with a sample space S. Clearly, the set A  B
denotes the event that both A and B have occurred. In other words, A  B is also written as
AB.
We know that the conditional probability of event B given that A has occurred is denoted by
P (B A ) and is given by
P ( A  B)
P (B A ) = , P(A)  0
P(A)
From this result, we can write P ( A  B ) = P ( A ) .P (B A ) …………….(1)
P ( A  B)
Also, we know that P ( A B ) = ,P (B )  0
P (B )
Thus, P ( A  B ) = P (B ) .P ( A B ) ……………(2)
Combining (1) and (2), we find that P ( A  B ) = P ( A ) .P (B A ) = P (B ) . P ( A B ) provided
P ( A )  0 and P (B )  0 .
The above result is known as the multiplication rule of probability.

The Generalized multiplication rule:

The multiplication formula for a arbitrary number of events is written as follows

P (E1E2E3 ...En ) = P (E1 ) .P (E2 E1 ) .P (E3 E1E2 ) .....P (En E1E2 ..En −1 )

With or Without Replacement

Clearly, this is a vital question in dealing with the probabilities of choosing. If the chosen
items are not replaced, the probabilities change with each choice. Here is another example.

Example : A box contains 6 red balls and 4 white ones. What is the probability of drawing
out (at random) three white balls in succession, if :

(i) each ball is replaced before the next draw?

(ii) the balls are not replaced?
4 2
Solution : (i) P ( white ) = = each time.
10 5
2 2 2 8
Probability of all three balls chosen being white =   =
5 5 5 125
4
(ii) P (white) = for first draw
10
3
= for second draw
9
2
= for third draw
8
4 3 2 24 1
P (three white) =   = =
10 9 8 720 30
As you can see, then, in choosing two or more items from a small group, it makes quite a
difference to the probabilities if the items are not replaced between choices.

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PROBABILITY-3 (CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY & MULTIPLICATION THEOREM ) M AM

Problem set
1. Five balls are randomly chosen, without replacement, from an urn that contains 5 red, 6
white and 7 blue balls. Find the probability that at least one ball of each colour is chosen.

2. Given the probabilities: p1 = P ( A ) ,p2 = P (B ) ,p3 = P ( AB ) , p1,p2 ,p3  0 express the following
in terms of p1,p2,p3

( )
(A) P A  B ( )
(B) P A  B (C) P AB( ) (
(D) P A  B )
(E) P ( A B ) (F) P ( A B ) (G) P  A  ( A  B ) (
(H) P  A  A  B  )
 
(J) P (B / A )
− 
(I) P ( A / B) (K) P  A/ B 
 
3. Three die are rolled simultaneously and events A, B and C are defined as sum of the
numbers on the upper faces of die is 9, sum is divisible by 3 and 5 has apopeared on one of
the die respectively. Find P ( A  B  C) .

4. An urn A contains four tickets numbered 1, 2, 3, 4 and the urn B contains six tickets
numbered 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9. One of the two urns is chosen at random and a ticket is drawn at
random from it. Show that the probability that the ticket drawn bears the number
5 1 5
(A) 2 or 4 is (B) 3 is (C) 1 or 9 is
12 8 24

5. If A, B, C are three events such that

P ( A ) = 0.3,P (B) = 0.4,P (C) = 0.8,P ( AB ) = 0.08,P ( AC) = 0.28,P ( ABC ) = 0.09 . If
P ( A  B  C)  0.75 then show that P (BC) lies in the interval 0.23  x  0.48

6. A bag contains 5 black and 3 red balls. A ball is taken out of the bag and is not returned to
it.
(i) What is the probability of drawing a red ball in the second draw if the ball in the first draw is
red?
(ii) What is the probability of drawing a black ball in the second draw if the ball in the first draw
is red?

7. A family has two children. What is the probability that both the children are boys given that
atleast one of them is a boy?

8. Ten cards numbered 1 to 10 are placed in a box, mixed up thoroughly and then one card is
drawn randomly. If it is known that the number on the drawn card is more than 3, what is the
probability that it is an even number?

9. A die is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed to be 6. What is
the conditional probability that the number 4 had appeared atleast once?

10. The probability that atleast one of the events A and B occour is 0.6 .if A and B occour
simultaneously with probability 0.2 ,then find the P A) + P(B ( )
11. An urn 10 black and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn from the urn one after the other
without replacement. What is the probability that both drawn balls are black?

12. A bag contains 15 items, of which 4 are defective. The items are selected at random, one by
one and examined. The one examined are not put back. What is the chance that the 10th
one examined is the last defective?

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PROBABILITY-3 (CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY & MULTIPLICATION THEOREM ) M AM

13. Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well shuffled
cards. What is the probability that first two cards are kings and the third card drawn is an
ace?

14. An urn contains ten balls of which three are black and 7 are white. The following game is
played: at each trial a ball is selected at random, its colour noted, and it is replaced along
with two additional balls of the same colour. What is the probability that a black ball is
selected in each of the first three trials?

15. Balls are drawn one at a time without replacement form a box containing 6 red and 4 white
balls. What is the probability of drawing out the balls in the order red – white – red – white
etc., until only red balls (two of them) are left in the box?

16. If A, B, C are three events and A, B, C are their complementary event and probability of B,
3 1 1
A B  C , A B  C are , , respectively then probability of B C is
4 3 3

17. For the three events A, B and C,

P (exactly one of the events A or B occurs) = P (exactly one of the events B or C occurs)
= P (exactly one of the events C or A occurs) =p
1
and P (all the three events occur Simultaneously) = p2, where 0  p  .
2
Then the probability of at least one of the three events A, B and C occurring is
3p + 2p 2 p + 3p2 p + 3p2 3p + 2p 2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
2 4 2 4

18. A locker can be opened by dialing a fixed three - digit code (between 000 and 999). A
stranger, who does not know the code, tries to opened locker by dialing three digits at
random. Find the probability that the stranger succeeds at the k th trial. (Assume that the
stranger does not repeat unsuccessful combinations.)

19. A player throws an ordinary die with faces numbered 1 to 6. Whenever he throws a 1 he has
a further throw. Find the probability of getting a total score of 5 or 8.

20. The probability that a student passes in mathematic physics and chemistry are m, p and c
respectively. Of these subjects, the student has a 75% chance of passing in at least one, a
50% chance of passing in at least two and a 40% chance of passing in exactly two. Which of
the following are true?
19 27 1 1
(A) p + m + c = (B) p + m + c = (C) pmc = (D) pmc =
20 20 10 4

ANSWERS
1 1 4
1. 0.7067 3. 7. 8.
24 3 7
2 3 24 2
9. 10 .1.2 11. 12. 13.
5 7 65 5525
1 k 3109
14. 16. 1/12 18. 19. 20. BC
16 1000 7776

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