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Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker 2024Q2 Hardware Investment Grows

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Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker 2024Q2 Hardware Investment Grows

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2 July 2024 | 9:02AM EDT

AI Adoption Tracker

2024Q2: Hardware Investment Grows, Barriers to


Profitable Use Remain (Kodnani)
n We update our quarterly AI adoption tracker through June. We launched the Jan Hatzius
+1(212)902-0394 | [email protected]
tracker earlier this year in our report on the state of the AI transition. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Joseph Briggs
n AI-related investment growth remains strong, particularly for semiconductor +1(212)902-2163 |
[email protected]
firms, where equity markets expect revenue growth of around 50% from current Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

levels by the end of 2025. Since the release of ChatGPT, equity markets have Devesh Kodnani
+1(917)343-9216 |
upgraded their 2025 revenue projections for AI hardware enablers by $330bn (or [email protected]
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
1.2% of US GDP), up from $250bn a quarter ago. These upgrades are expected
Giovanni Pierdomenico
to broaden from semiconductor and cloud firms to the broader datacenter stack +44(20)7051-6807 |
[email protected]
For the exclusive use of [email protected]

(e.g., memory and networking firms) by 2025H2. While AI-related investment is Goldman Sachs International

not yet visible in national accounts data, manufacturers’ shipments for AI-related
components have continued to pick up in the US and Japan over the past
quarter.
n AI adoption by firms remains modest, with only 5% of US firms reporting
currently using AI to produce goods or services. While this share increased only
marginally (+0.2pp) since a quarter ago, arts and entertainment, professional,
and retail trade firms reported higher adoption rates of at least 1pp while
information, administrative, and educational firms reported lower adoption rates
of at least 1pp. Cloud-related firms report the highest expected increase in AI
adoption over the next six months. Industry surveys released over the past

9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514
quarter suggest that while a large share of small businesses are experimenting
with AI, most have yet to define a clear business use case or employee training
programs, and many still have concerns over data compatibility and privacy.
n AI’s impact on the labor market has been very modest thus far, with AI-related
job openings ticking up as a share of total new jobs, AI-related layoff
announcements remaining muted over the past few months, and the
unemployment rate for the most AI-exposed positions ticking down slightly in
recent months relative to the broader unemployment rate.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC
certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker

2024Q2: Hardware Investment Grows, Barriers to Profitable Use Remain

AI-Related Investment

Exhibit 1: AI-Enabled Company Revenues Have Risen Sharply, Particularly Among Semiconductor Firms Where They Are Expected to Rise
Nearly 50% Further by the End of 2025
For the exclusive use of [email protected]

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Revenue Forecast Revisions Now Imply a $330bn Upgrade to Annual Average Revenues for AI
Hardware Enablers by 2025, Up From $250bn a Quarter Ago

9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2 July 2024 2
Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker

Exhibit 3: The Upgrade to Hardware Investment Is Primarily Driven by Increased Investment in


Semiconductors and Cloud, Although Datacenter Components Are Expected to Play a Larger Role by
2025H2
For the exclusive use of [email protected]

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 4: No Visible Inflection in Investment Growth in National Accounts Data…

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514

2 July 2024 3
Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker

Exhibit 5: …But Manufacturers’ Shipments for AI-Related Components Have Picked Up Further, Particularly Among Computing and Storage
Equipment in the US and in Japan
For the exclusive use of [email protected]

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514

2 July 2024 4
Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker

AI Adoption by Firms

Exhibit 6: Approximately 5% of US Firms Are Using Generative AI to Produce Goods and Services, Although
the Share Is Much Higher Among Information Service Companies

0 5 10 15 20 25
Information
Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Educational Services
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
All Industries
Health Care and Social Assistance
Admin/Support/Waste Management
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Other Services
Wholesale Trade Share of US Firms Using AI by Sector (%)
Transportation and Warehousing October 2023
Accommodation and Food Services June 2024
Construction Next Six Months

0 5 10 15 20 25
For the exclusive use of [email protected]

Source: Census Bureau, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 7: The Share of Firms Using AI for Production Ticked Up Just 0.2pp Over the Past Quarter, With
Increases of at Least 1pp Among Arts and Entertainment, Professional, and Retail Trade Firms and Declines
of at Least 1pp Among Information, Administrative, and Educational Firms

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0


Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Retail Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Real Estate and Rental

9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514
Health Care and Social Assistance
All Industries
Other Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Manufacturing
Construction
Finance and Insurance Change in Share
Wholesale Trade of Firms Using AI Since
Educational Services Quarter Ago, by Sector
Admin/Support/Waste Management (Percentage Points)
Information
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Source: Census Bureau, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2 July 2024 5
Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker

Exhibit 8: Higher Adoption Rates Among Internet, Information, Movie Production, and Professional Firms

0 10 20 30 40
Computing/Data/Web Hosting
Web Search/Libraries/Archives
Information
Motion Picture and Sound Recording
Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Securities/Commodities/Financial
Educational Services
Telecommunications
Retail Trade
Computer and Electronic Manufacturing
Real Estate Share of US Firms Using AI,
Performing Arts/Spectator Sports Top 15 Subsectors (%)
Beverage and Tobacco Manufacturing October 2023
Insurance Carriers and Related June 2024
Ambulatory Health Services Next Six Months
0 10 20 30 40

Source: Census Bureau, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


For the exclusive use of [email protected]

Exhibit 9: Across Subsectors, Cloud-Related Firms Most Expect to Adopt AI Within the Next Six Months

0 2 4 6 8 10
Computing/Data/Web Hosting
Web Search/Libraries/Archives
Securities/Commodities/Financial
Motion Picture and Sound Recording
Educational Services
Information
Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Credit Intermediation and Related
Insurance Carriers and Related
Administrative and Support

9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514
Real Estate
Ambulatory Health Services Expected Change in Share
Retail Trade of Firms Using AI Over Next
Beverage and Tobacco Manufacturing
Six Months, Top 15 Subsectors
(Percentage Points)
Performing Arts/Spectator Sports
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Source: Census Bureau, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2 July 2024 6
Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker

Exhibit 10: Industry Surveys Released Over the Past Quarter Suggest That a Large Share of Small Businesses Are Experimenting With AI but
That Most Have Yet to Define a Clear Business Use Case or Employee Training Programs, and Many Still Have Concerns Over Data
Compatibility and Privacy
Source Date Current Adoption Future Adoption

More than 60% of surveyed companies see generative AI as a top three


priority over the next two years, but only 35% have a clearly defined vision
87% of surveyed companies are alrady developing, piloting, or have
for how they will create business value from generative AI. The top cited
deployed generative AI in some capacity, with most early deployments in
Bain & Company June 2024 reasons preventing surveyed companies from deploying generative AI faster
software code development, customer service, marketing and sales, and
are that the company's tech platform is not ready to support AI applications,
product differentiation.
the company lacks in-house expertise or resources, and the company's data
is not ready to be processed by AI models.

52% of small business owners expect that AI will enable them to increase or
Two-thirds of small business owners invested in AI over the past year, and retain their employee heacount. However, 76% of owners don't plan to offer
84% of Gen Z small business owners did. 41% of small businesses expect an AI training course for employees in the coming year. The leading areas of
Cox Business May 2024
AI to help their organizations increase profitability and 33% expect AI to business where owners are already using AI (marketing, sales, customer
improve their customer experience. service) are the same areas that they plan to continue their usage of AI in
2024.

58% of small business owners plan to invest in AI over the next year. Small
business owners under 35 have a more positive view of AI (79%) than small
33% of small business owners are early adopters of new AI technologies. Of
business owners aged 65 or older (53%). Businesses with 100+ employees
Bipartisan Policy those, 83% say it has been helpful in improving systems, increasing
March 2024 are significantly more likely to plan investments in AI than those with fewer
Center efficiency, and producing content, while 54% say it has had a positive impact
than 10 employees. The biggest barriers to AI use among small businesses
on business growth.
include the cost of AI tools (55%), uncertainty over possible government
regulation (50%), and data privacy (49%).

Over the next three years, a much larger share of CIOs (50%) intend to
In the coming year, 30% of CIOs do not expect to spend on generative AI spend at least 5% of IT budgets on generative AI products, with 10%
Goldman Sachs applications and 58% expect to spend 1-5% of their IT budgets on them. On intending to spend 15-30% of their IT budgets on them. At this horizon, CIOs
March 2024
Equity Research average, CIOs expect to spend 3% of IT budgets on generative AI products expect to spend 7% of IT budgets on average on generative AI. Usage of
For the exclusive use of [email protected]

during this period. Microsoft Office Copilot in particular is expected to grow from 3% of users to
13% of users during this time.

73% of young company leaders believe AI will be transformative for their


58% of businesses are increasing their investments into AI. 64% are
business, but the vast majority of those which have adopted are still in the
PwC March 2024 concerned about cybersecurity risk from AI, and roughly half are concerned
exploration phase, with only 7% of businesses having AI applications actively
about misinformation and legal and reputational risk.
deployed in their operations.

67% of technology professionals say that their companies are currently using Most adopters are still at the proof-of-concept or product development
generative AI, with the majority of users (54%) expecting that AI adoption will phase, with only 18% of total respondents already having AI applications in
O'Reilly November 2023 lead to productivity improvements while only 4% expect lower headcounts. production. The top cited barriers to implementation are identifying
The most common cited use cases are programming (77%), data analysis appropriate use cases (53%) and a combination of legal issues, risk, and
(70%), and customer-facing applications (65%). compliance (38%).

33% of workers say AI will replace elements of their job in a positive way
56% of workers report using AI tools for work tasks, with 46% saying (e.g., freing up time for other tasks), while just 4% say AI will replace
Conference management is fully aware of their use another 38% saying management is elements of their job in a negative way (e.g., threatening their jobs). 57% of
September 2023
Board only partially aware or unaware. Most workers (55%) say the quality of AI workers say their organization either does not have an AI policy or that one is
output matches that of an experienced worker or better. currently under development, compared to just 26% who say their
organization does have one.

9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514
71% of businesses (sample skewed to technology companies) say their
companies are already using AI in some capacity, with 92% of AI 52% of businesses report that a lack of skilled workers is the biggest barrier
Microsoft September 2023
deployments taking under one year. The average AI investment takes 14 to implement and scale AI.
months to begin to realize returns.

28% of North American respondents say they regularly use generative AI


tools for work, compared to 20% in developing markets. Among AI "top
The most commonly cited risks for AI adoption are inaccuracy (56%),
McKinsey & performers" (organizations where 20% of EBIT are attributable to AI use),
August 2023 cybersecurity (53%), and IP infringement (46%), though only a minority of
Company firms are less likely to cite AI as intended for cost cutting (19%) than among
firms say they are actively working to address those risks.
all respondents (33%) and more likely to cite potential revenue and value
upside.

Most executives in TMT (71%) and healthcare (67% industries believe they 65% of executives believe generative AI will have a high or extremely high
KPMG June 2023 have adequately prioritized generative AI, while only 30% in consumer and impact on their organization in the next 3-5 years, and 60% say they are 1-2
retail say that it is a priority. years away from implementing their first generative AI solution.

Green shading indicates surveys released since last quarterly update.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2 July 2024 7
Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker

AI’s Impact on the Labor Market

Exhibit 11: AI-Related Job Postings Have Ticked Up as a Share of Total Job Openings and Surged as a Share of IT Job Openings
For the exclusive use of [email protected]

Source: LinkUp, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 12: Mentions of AI in Corporate Layoff Announcements Remain Muted

Thousands Layoffs Attributed to Factor in Corporate Announcements: Thousands


16 16
"Technological Change"
14 "Artificial Intelligence" 14

12 Total (May 2023-May 2024): 12


20,655
10 10

8 8

9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514
6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2024

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2 July 2024 8
Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker

Exhibit 13: The Unemployment Rate for AI-Exposed Jobs Has Generally Tracked (and Recently Undershot)
the Broader Labor Market
For the exclusive use of [email protected]

Source: Census Bureau, IPUMS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514

2 July 2024 9
Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker

Latest GS Research on Artificial Intelligence


n Top of Mind: Gen AI: Too Much Spend, Too Little Benefit?, June 25
n Generative AI Part VI: Examining the Consumer Internet Landscape, June 24
n Global Economics Comment: Reconciling Estimates of the Growth Impact of
Generative AI, June 4
n Global Markets Daily: Is AI Already Boosting US Power Demand?, May 14
n Generational Growth: AI, Data Centers and the Coming US Power Demand Surge,
April 28
n GS SUSTAIN: Generational Growth: AI/Data Centers’ Global Power Surge and the
Sustainability Impact, April 28
n For research from prior quarters, see the Artificial Intelligence page on our publishing
portal.
For the exclusive use of [email protected]

9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514

2 July 2024 10
Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker

Disclosure Appendix
Reg AC
We, Jan Hatzius, Joseph Briggs, Devesh Kodnani and Giovanni Pierdomenico, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately
reflect our personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division.

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Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker

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9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514
forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as
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