Introduction to Probability
and Statistics
Thirteenth Edition
Chapter 5
Several Useful Discrete
Distributions
Introduction
• Discrete random variables take on only a
finite or countable infinite number of
values.
• Three discrete probability distributions
serve as models for a large number of
practical applications:
✓The binomial random variable
✓The Poisson random variable
✓The hypergeometric random
variable
The Binomial Random Variable
• The coin-tossing experiment is
a simple example of a binomial
random variable. Toss a fair
coin n = 3 times and record x =
number of heads.
x p(x)
0 1/8
1 3/8
2 3/8
3 1/8
The Binomial Random Variable
• Many situations in real life resemble the
coin toss, but the coin is not necessarily
fair, so that P(H) 1/2.
• Example: A geneticist samples
10 people and counts the number
who have a gene linked to
Alzheimer’s disease.
• Coin: Person • Number of n = 10
• Head: Has gene tosses: P(has gene) =
• Tail: Doesn’t have
• P(H): proportion in the
population who have
gene the gene.
The Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of n identical
trials.
2. Each trial results in one of two
outcomes, success (S) or failure (F).
3. The probability of success on a single
trial is p and remains constant from
trial to trial. The probability of failure is q
= 1 – p.
4. The trials are independent.
5. We are interested in x, the number of
successes in n trials.
Binomial or Not?
• Very few real life applications
satisfy these requirements exactly.
• Select two people from the U.S.
population, and suppose that 15% of the
population has the Alzheimer’s gene.
• For the first person, p = P(gene) = .15
• For the second person, p P(gene) =
.15, even though one person has been
removed from the population.
The Binomial Probability
Distribution
• For a binomial experiment with n trials and
probability p of success on a given trial,
the probability of k successes in n trials is
n −k n! k n−k
P( x = k ) = C p q
n k
= p q for k = 0,1,2,...n.
k!(n − k )!
k
n!
Recall C = n
k!(n − k )!
k
with n!= n(n − 1)(n − 2)...(2)1 and 0! 1.
The Mean and Standard
Deviation
• For a binomial experiment with n trials and
probability p of success on a given trial,
the measures of center and spread are:
Mean : = np
Variance: = npq
2
Standarddeviation: = npq
Example
A marksman hits a target 80% of the
time. He fires five shots at the target. What is the
probability that exactly 3 shots hit the target?
n= 5 success = hit p= .8 x= # of
hits
5!
P( x = 3) = C p q
n
3
3 n−3
= (.8)3 (.2)5−3
3!2!
= 10(.8)3 (.2)2 = .2048
myapplet
Example
What is the probability that more than 3
shots hit the target?
P( x 3) = C45 p4q5−4 + C55 p5q5−5
5! 5!
= (.8) (.2) +
4 1
(.8)5 (.2)0
4!1! 5!0!
= 5(.8)4 (.2) + (.8)5 = .7373
Cumulative
Probability Tables
You can use the cumulative probability
tables to find probabilities for selected
binomial distributions.
✓Find the table for the correct value of n.
✓Find the column for the correct value of p.
✓The row marked “k” gives the cumulative
probability, P(x k) = P(x = 0) +…+ P(x = k)
myapplet
Example
k p = .80
0 .000 What is the probability that
1 .007 exactly 3 shots hit the target?
2 .058
3 .263
4 .672 P(x = 3) = P(x 3) – P(x 2)
5 1.000 = .263 - .058
= .205 Check from
formula: P(x = 3) =
.2048
myapplet
Example
k p = .80
0 .000
What is the probability that more
1 .007
than 3 shots hit the target?
2 .058
3 .263
4 .672 P(x > 3) = 1 - P(x 3)
5 1.000 = 1 - .263 = .737
Check from
formula: P(x > 3) =
.7373
Example
• Here is the probability
distribution for x = number of
hits. What are the mean and
standard deviation for x?
Mean : = np = 5(.8) = 4
Standarddeviation : = npq
= 5(.8)(.2) = .89
myapplet
Example
• Would it be unusual to find
that none of the shots hit
the target? = 4; = .89
• The value x = 0 lies
x− 0−4
z= = = −4.49
.89
• more than 4 standard
deviations below the
mean. Very unusual.
The Poisson Random Variable
• The Poisson random variable x is a model
for data that represent the number of
occurrences of a specified event in a
given unit of time or space.
• Examples:
• The number of calls received by a
switchboard during a given period of time.
• The number of machine breakdowns in a
day
• The number of traffic accidents at a given
intersection during a given time period.
The Poisson Probability
Distribution
• x is the number of events that occur in a
period of time or space during which an
average of such events can be expected to
occur. The probability of k occurrences of this
event is
k e−
P( x = k ) =
k!
For values of k = 0, 1, 2, … The mean
and standard deviation of the Poisson
random variable are
Mean:
Standard deviation: =
Example
The average number of traffic accidents on
a certain section of highway is two per
week. Find the probability of exactly one
accident during a one-week period.
k − −2
e
1
2e −2
P( x = 1) = = = 2e = .2707
k! 1!
Cumulative
Probability Tables
You can use the cumulative probability
tables to find probabilities for selected
Poisson distributions.
✓Find the column for the correct value of .
✓The row marked “k” gives the cumulative
probability, P(x k) = P(x = 0) +…+ P(x = k)
Example
k =2 What is the probability that there
0 .135 is exactly 1 accident?
1 .406
2 .677
3 .857
P(x = 1) = P(x 1) – P(x 0)
4 .947
5 .983
= .406 - .135
6 .995 = .271 Check from
formula: P(x = 1) =
7 .999
.2707
8 1.000
Example
k =2 What is the probability that 8 or
0 .135 more accidents happen?
1 .406
P(x 8) = 1 - P(x < 8)
2 .677
= 1 – P(x 7)
3 .857
= 1 - .999 = .001
4 .947
5 .983 This would be very unusual (small
6 .995 probability) since x = 8 lies
x− 8−2
7 .999 z= = = 4.24
1.414
8 1.000
standard deviations above the mean.
m
m
The Hypergeometric m
m
m
m
m
Probability Distribution
• The “M&M® problems” from Chapter 4 are
modeled by the hypergeometric distribution.
• A bowl contains M red candies and N-M blue
candies. Select n candies from the bowl and
record x the number of red candies selected.
Define a “red M&M®” to be a “success”.
The probability of exactly k successes in n
trials is
M M −N
C C
P( x = k ) = k
N
n−k
C n
m
m
The Mean and m
m
m
m
m
Variance
The mean and variance of the
hypergeometric random variable x
resemble the mean and variance of the
binomial random
M variable:
Mean : = n
N
M N − M N − n
Variance : = n
2
N N N − 1
Example
A package of 8 AA batteries contains 2
batteries that are defective. A student
randomly selects four batteries and replaces
the batteries in his calculator. What is the
probability that all four batteries work?
6 2
Success = working CC
battery P( x = 4) = 4
8
0
C4
N=8
6(5) / 2(1) 15
M=6 = =
8(7)(6)(5) / 4(3)(2)(1) 70
n=4
Example
What are the mean and variance for the
number of batteries that work?
M 6
= n = 4 = 3
N 8
M N − M N − n
= n
2
N N N − 1
6 2 4
= 4 = .4286
8 8 7
Key Concepts
I. The Binomial Random Variable
1. Five characteristics: n identical independent trials,
each resulting in either success S or failure F; probability
of success is p and remains constant from trial to trial;
and x is the number of successes in n trials.
2. Calculating binomial probabilities
n−k
a. Formula: P ( x = k ) = Ck p q
n k
b. Cumulative binomial tables
c. Individual and cumulative probabilities using
Minitab
3. Mean of the binomial random variable: = np = npq
4. Variance and standard deviation: 2 = npq and
Key Concepts
II. The Poisson Random Variable
1. The number of events that occur in a period of time or
space, during which an average of such events are
expected to occur
2. Calculating Poisson probabilities
k e−
a. Formula: P( x = k ) =
k!
b. Cumulative Poisson tables
c. Individual and cumulative probabilities using
Minitab
3. Mean of the Poisson random variable: E(x) = =
4. Variance and standard deviation: 2 = and
5. Binomial probabilities can be approximated with
Poisson probabilities when np 7, using = np.
Key Concepts
III. The Hypergeometric Random Variable
1. The number of successes in a sample of size n from a
finite
population containing M successes and N − M failures
2. Formula for the probability of k successes in n trials:
CkM CnM− k− N
P( x = k ) =
CnN
3. Mean of the hypergeometric random variable:
M
= n
N
4. Variance and standard deviation:
M N − M N − n
2 = n
N N N − 1
