CATAN STRATEGY GUIDE

In this article, I will cover placement and early expansion strategies, strategic use of the
robber, resource negotiations, and development card use. Although I will not go into detail
about Seafarers or Cities and Knights, many of the techniques in this guide can be applied to
both.

I will discuss both three and four player games. I will not cover two, five, or six player
games. All two player games are at best, sub-standard variants. Playing with only two
eliminates the negotiation aspect of the game. The five and six player games are not fun, in
my opinion. Generally, at least one, if not two players get trapped, unable to expand, right
off the bat. With virtually no chance of winning, they slog through the remainder of the game
just wishing it were over. I would rather everyone be actively involved and having fun.
Although the placement and early expansion advice will be useful to people playing against
computer AI, the rest of it won’t really apply. Computers think in probabilities and statistics.
You can’t get a computer to “trust you” or to “owe you one”.

PLACEMENT AND EARLY EXPANSION:

The initial placement in this game is very important. If you do it correctly, you put yourself in
a position for victory. If you do it wrong, then it’s going to be the longest hour of your life
knowing that you just can’t muster any resources, or grow beyond your first two cities. I’d
say about 25% of the game is won or lost before the dice are ever rolled.

I have encountered use strategies like, “Go for wood and brick so that you can make lots of
roads.” Other players cite mantras like, “Ore builds cities and soldiers, so try to get on a lot
of good ore spots.” Obviously your game can be stagnated without wood and brick in the
beginning. Likewise, without any ore, you won’t be able to buy anything at all during the
endgame. It is possible, however, for ore to end up on the 2, 3, and 12 spaces. In this case,
“going for ore” isn’t really that smart a strategy. The same can happen with wood/brick. If
either of these strategies was a dominant one, they would work all the time. Since they
don’t, there must be some other more deterministic mechanic at work.

I’m going to set this next bit apart in asterisks because it is pretty much the core to this
guide. After you read it, if you decide you can live with it, please continue on through the
rest of the guide.

******** Most important part of the entire guide *************

I am going to give you my absolute most valuable tip. At the end of a few games of settlers,
write down where folks put their first two cities with regard to vertices. Don’t worry about
whether or not the vertices have ore, wheat, wood, or whatever. Just write down the
numbers. As each person places a new settlement, write down the vertices of where these
go. Write down where they built there first city – was it on an 8/5/4 vertex or a 6/3/11
vertex? Remember, what resources they actually get is totally unimportant, just the
numbers.

There are always anomalies, but over the long haul, you’ll find that MOST of the people who
win are winning because they have a good distribution of numbers – regardless of what their
stated strategy is. A person will often say, “Oh, well, I just tried to get all the ore in the
game.” But is that really how they won? Or is it possible that they inadvertently employed
some other strategy that had far more to do with the outcome than simply “get all the ore.”
Keeping a log of wins/losses, and starting/ending number distribution, will show you over a
number of games what’s really working for the winners.

The key to understanding how to win the game isn’t to work from front to back, it’s to work
from back to front. After someone wins, figure out what vertices they started on, what
direction they expanded, and how they did it. What kind of number distribution did they end
up with? What kind did they start with?

I am a big fan of the book “Moneyball,” a baseball book that I highly recommend to gamers.
It talks about general managers in baseball trying to find good talent to draft. How do you
know who to draft? How do you know if a kid is going to turn out to be the next Derek Jeter,
Alex Rodriguez, or Albert Pujols? The answer is simple – look at Jeter, Rodriguez, and Pujols
when they were kids and see what kind of numbers they put up. Then find players like that.
The book “Moneyball” suggests that it isn’t the number of homeruns a player hits in college,
it’s the number of walks. If you see a player that gets a lot of walks, they probably have
great plate discipline, which is what ultimately will lead to homeruns in the future. Although
on its surface, it’s about baseball, in reality it’s about how to measure success so that it can
be repeated. This is something that doesn’t just apply to baseball, it applies to games as
well.

People will keep telling you that Settlers is about the resources, but I promise you, it is about
the numbers. If I can’t convince you of that, you should probably stop reading right here. If
you can suspend your disbelief long enough to continue, I think you’ll find some really great
stuff in here.
***************************************************************

Ok, continuing on with initial placement strategy…

The best strategy of all is to diversify – and I’m not talking about resources. You should try
to get on as many different numbers as possible to ensure that whatever gets rolled, you get
a resource. Above all else, it is of paramount importance to get a good spread of numbers.
Grabbing 6, 8, 5, 9, 4, and 10, are a first priority. You may also eventually want to expand to
3 and 11 if there is a particularly valuable or rare commodity on those hexes. For example, if
sheep is only available on hexes 2, 3, and 11, you will probably eventually want to build
toward a 3 or 11 hex. Both 3 and 11 can be ignored throughout the game, however.

Having a good distribution of numbers allows you to always get resources. The name of the
game in Settlers is cards. If you don’t have cards, you can’t play. If you can’t play, you can’t
win. I would rather have two sheep cards than none at all. And, I would rather have ten
sheep cards than one ore and one brick. I cannot stress this enough. I know I’m going to get
people saying “Would you put your marker on the 5/6/9 vertex if all three were sheep?” The
answer is “Absolutely.” My second placement would obviously provide me with a couple of
other resources, and I would likely be able to trade sheep in to the bank for something
useful. This strategy would obviously require some kind of port, but ignoring a good spread
of numbers for any reason is a good way to get beat. If you like the ore strategy or the brick
strategy, by all means, you can still usually pick one or the other. But if you fail to get a
good distribution of numbers, chances are high that you won’t have enough cards to trade in
order to put yourself in a position to win. The “lucky” part of this game is the dice rolling. If
you have a settlement on all (or nearly all) of the numbers, you’ve eliminated much of the
“luck” involved.

Most of the time, you will get shut out of either a 6 or an 8 at the beginning of the game. If
the first two players lock down the 6, the third player may position his first settlement on the
other 6 hex such that your only other placement would be on a vertex that contains the 6
and 12, or the 6 and 2. If this is the case, you may just have to play without a 6 to start. No
matter. Try for an 8, 5, 10 vertex, then look for something with a 4 and a 9. Position your
roads so that you can build toward the 6 later in the game.

If for any reason, the 5/6/9 vertex is available in the game, take it. Depending on where the
desert falls in the game, this vertex may or may not be present on the board. Taking this
vertex not only gives you amazing numbers, but it will foul up the 5/6/x, the 5/9/x, and the
6/9/x spots. Your opponents will be left with substantially inferior slot choices.

If you are playing first or second, I highly recommend getting on one of the 6 hexes first.
The reason is that generally there will be an 8/4 or an 8/10 port available on the board. I
would say in about 50% of my games, my second placement is on one of these ports. I
generally don’t even worry about the type of port I am on. It’s more important that I get the
numbers I need.

Road placement at the beginning is also crucial. The biggest rookie mistake I see is someone
pointing their road toward an extremely valuable slot. You know that someone is going to
stick one of their first two settlements there, so why would you point a road down that
direction? Your first couple of roads should be pointed toward a 4, 10, 3, or 11 – whichever
ones you don’t have. Getting your third settlement down in these spots is sure better than
missing on a chance at a 5 or a 9 because someone built there first. You may also be able to
point your road toward a less desirable 6 spot, such as one near a 2 or a 12.

As a general rule, do not point your roads toward the center of the board. It’s going to get
crowded there and you won’t have enough room to breath. I try to point my roads toward
the coast. If I don’t have a port already, this gets me my first one. The key is to allow
yourself room to move. You need to be able to build a combination of at least four
cities/settlements. Keep that in mind. It’s possible to win with fewer than four
settlements/cities, but it’s not easy, and it can’t be done consistently. By and large, people
win with at least four or more. During your first placement, you need to guess not only
where other people are going to go first, but where they are likely to expand. I know that
ignoring the middle of the board seems goofy, but it will work. I play for the edges because I
can guarantee my ability to put a settlement there. If I work toward the middle, I might get
a settlement in – but if I don’t, then I lose for sure.

THE ROBBER:

You’re always supposed to place the robber on the person with the most victory points,
right? Or, wait, you’re supposed to place it on a 6 or 8 so that it takes out someone’s best
number, correct? Or was it that you should try to put it so that it affects as many people as
possible? And of course, you never want to put the robber on someone holding development
cards because they probably have a soldier, and they’ll just put it right back on you won’t
they?

Once in a while, one of the above strategies for the robber may be correct. If someone has
nine victory points, and a handful of cards, putting the robber on them probably is the best
idea. At the end of the game, placing the robber is pretty easy to figure out. But, what about
in the beginning of the game? What about the middle? Placing the robber in the early/middle
of the game will absolutely have one intended effect – someone will not like you for putting it
on them. If you’ve hit someone with a robber early and they roll a seven, where do you think
it’s going to end up next? Chances are, it will end up on you.

“Ah ha!” you say. “Now I’ve got you. You’re about to tell me to put the robber on a space
that doesn’t hurt anyone just to be nice, aren’t you?” Absolutely not. Trying to make peace
by not taking a card with the robber is always a bad idea. The whole advantage of getting a
seven is that you get a card, someone else loses a card, and nothing good happens for the
other two. If you just make the robber go back to the desert, you’ve wasted your entire turn.
When you place the robber, though, you are going to make enemies, so you’d better not
choose someone that can hurt you too badly.
You should also make sure that you only affect one player with the robber. Affecting two
players doubles the revenge factor, as well as doubles the motivation to move it with a
soldier card. If only one person is affected, then the robber will probably spend longer on
that spot. As a rule of thumb, in the early/middle game, you should place the robber on the
player to your right. The reason is that it will spend more time there. The player to your right
can’t take the robber off for two or three more rolls, which is great.

Now, if the player to your left or the player across from you rolls a seven, the robber will
move. But, they might remember your kindness and not hit you with it when it comes
around. If the player to your right rolls a seven, you can bet it’s probably coming back your
way. Early in the game, this revenge factor may not make sense, but later, when soldiers are
in play, it will have a huge effect.

If you have an unplayed soldier, you can minimize any robber damage from the player on
your right. He can place it on you and take a card, but it will only affect one roll. After that, it
will be your turn. You can move the robber with your soldier and stick it back on the player
to your right for three more rolls before he can do anything about it. Meanwhile, you’re
building up credibility and trust with the other two players by not ever putting the robber on
them. This will make them less likely to put the robber on you, which works out pretty well.

So, to sum up, the player on your right is easy to mess with because you can instantly get
back at him with a soldier, or a lucky seven roll. The player on your left should be avoided
when you roll the robber. You simply can’t afford to get into a soldier war with that player. It
will stay on you for three times longer than it stays on him/her. If you’re messing with the
player across from you, then it’s a pretty fair fight. I don’t like fair fights, though. I’d rather
have the advantage. This strategy works so well for me that no one in my family wants to sit
to my right ever. It’s gotten to the point where we roll for both turn order and seat position.
How do you know a strategy is good? When people will fight like cats and dogs not to have it
used on them.

The important thing to note about messing with the player on your right is not to be a jerk.
Always give a reason why you are playing the robber on them. Don’t say, “Well, I read a
guide and it said to put in on the player to my right, so that’s what I am doing.” Instead say,
“Well, we rolled wheat a couple of turns ago and I really needed one.” That person may
come back with – “Well, you just got two wheat.” Just say, “Oh, I was trying to go for a 3 for
1 trade.” If they want to know why you didn’t just steal the actual resource you wanted, play
dumb. Most people think that they are great at Settlers since it’s been around so long. The
“Aw shucks” attitude really goes a long way. Even if you win all the time, you can just tell
people that you’re just really lucky and they’ll believe you. Meanwhile, employ the best
strategy for winning and let them think what they want. I have to admit, the “Aw shucks”
routine is a little tough for me to pull off these days. After I won the first Catan Cup, folks
said, “Man, he sure is lucky.” After the second, it was, “Hey, didn’t that guy win last year?
Hmmm….” As for my family? Forget about it. They know what I’m up to. I still work the
same strategies, but they make it much tougher on me.

Should you put the robber on a person if they have an unused development card? Definitely.
I know that it means that it will probably just get put right back on you, but at least they’ll
have to wait two or three rolls to do it. Sometimes you just have to take a punch in the
mouth from that soldier to get it played. Who knows, you might discover that the card they
are holding isn’t a soldier at all – and wouldn’t that be a valuable piece of information to
have?

I like to see all of my opponents development cards face up. The only way to make that
happen is to put the robber on them. You may need to convince the other players to put the
robber on someone with a dev card, too (especially if it’s the player to your left). I can
usually throw something out like, “Man, I wish we could make him use that soldier, then he
couldn’t hold it over our heads for the whole game.” The real reason the soldier is valuable
isn’t because he can move the robber – it’s because he can threaten to move the robber.
Once the soldier has done it, the threat is over and the player has no more protection. By
the same token, I love getting one early development card just so I can say, “Well, you could
put the robber on my, but I’ll just put it right back. Why don’t you put it on the other guy?
He has no protection.” Ah, soldiers. It’s like holding off three bad guys with one bullet. Sure,
you can only shoot one of them, but who’s going to volunteer?

Playing the robber well and not getting it played as much yourself is another 25% of this
game. Good robber management is probably the hardest part of the game, because it is the
one where you have the least direct control. You can only control where a robber goes when
you roll a seven or play a robber. It’s impossible to control how people will react to it.

RESOURCE NEGOTIATION:

I talk at the table a lot. I talk across the table. I talk to two players trading with each other,
even when I’m not involved. I would never tell people not to take a deal that another player
offers. If you do that, most of the time, they’re going to make that deal anyway, and then
neither one of them will trust you. I try to tell people that they are making good moves,
surprising moves, and that they drive a hard bargain when I am trading. Sometimes it’s
true, sometimes it’s not. The important thing is that I am being nice.

**edit**
There is some debate about whether or not talking during a trade is acceptable. According to
the Rules Guru at Mayfair games ([email protected]), it is. Here is a link which
goes over this rule: http://www.universityofcatan.com/faq/faqq48304.html. For those of you
who don't want to click the link, I will lay out the question and answer here:

Q: Are players allowed to suggest trades when it is not their turn?

A: Yes. The rules state that you may only trade if the player who is taking his turn is
included in the trade, but there is no rule that states that you can not negotiate a trade when
it is not your turn.
**end of edit**

Some people like to be jerks in this game. Why? Because no one wants to put the robber on
a big, whining, complaining, jerk, If you put the robber on a jerk, you’re probably going to
have to hear about it for the next 50 minutes. However, the same people that won’t put the
robber on a jerk also won’t trade with the jerk unless it is important. They’ll always trade
with the nice guy. In fact, even if they have just put the robber on me, they will probably
make up for it by trading with me later out of pity. “Well, I did put the robber on you, so I
guess I’ll make the trade with you instead of with the other guy.” Again, the “aw shucks”
should work like a charm.

If someone wants to trade something and you are the only one offering, try to get them to
wait until your turn to trade it. Trading another player on his turn benefits him greatly
because he can use his new cards right away. Trading with someone on your turn will benefit
you more than them for the same reason. You may need to make up an excuse like, “Oh,
man, if I have the card you need, but I need it to. If I get the roll I am looking for, I can
trade it. Just let me roll first.” If they can live with that, you’ve done very well for yourself,
and haven’t benefited them too much, because you’ve made them wait a turn to employ
their strategy. To sum up, it’s better to trade on your turn than on someone else’s turn.

I would also encourage you to trade a lot. You may even want to make neutral trades that
don’t help you that much if there is more than one person involved. Let’s say you are player
1. Player two wants to give a sheep in exchange for a wood. You don’t really need a sheep.
Player 3 pipes up and says, “I’ll do it.” At that point, you may want to jump in. If the wood
isn’t vital to what you’re trying to do, then just make the trade. If you allow two other
players to trade with each other, chances are good that they both got stronger. Meanwhile,
you stayed the same. I sometimes even make trades that are disadvantageous to me
(breaking up a wood/brick, or a wheat/sheep/ore to take something else) just to prevent two
other players from both becoming stronger. Knowing when to just keep trading and when to
let other people trade with each other is more of an art than a science. It takes time to know
when you should jump in and when you should let it go. Just remember – when a trade
happens that you aren’t involved in, two other people just got a little better, and you didn’t.

You may also want to altogether interrupt trades on someone else’s turn. As a warning, this
can make them angry if you do it too often. An interrupt is when you encourage people not
to trade with the player who currently holds the dice and instead to wait for your turn. In
exchange for waiting for your turn, perhaps you sweeten the deal, or give them the card
they really want instead of a substitute. If you’re interrupting someone’s trade turn, you may
want to make it the guy on your right. After all, you’re probably robbing the heck out him
and he’s probably already mad enough at you that irking him a little more won’t matter.

If you’re going to hold resources hostage, don’t lord that fact over people. If you’re the only
one on a decent Brick number, that doesn’t mean you can start demanding things. That will
probably just anger people and make you the target of a lot of robbers. If people offer me
only one resource for my valuable brick, I always say things like, “Yeah, I know these have
been tough to get. But I’m having trouble getting both wood and wheat, so I guess I’ll just
hold off trading this brick until I have some extra and I can get both wood and wheat.” If the
situation is desperate enough that they will trade two resources, they will offer two
resources. If they aren’t willing to part with two, then that thought will never cross their
mind. Don’t EVER ask for two resources in exchange for your one. People will immediately
think you’re trying to get the best of them. If you need two resources for say one wheat,
then just hold up the wheat and say, “Anybody have anything for this?” The first offer will
be, “I’ll give you a wood.” Another player might say, “I’ll give you an ore.” Just keep playing
the “Gee, I don’t know…” card until someone offers two resources. When you come right out
and ask for a two for one, people think you’re a shark. Let them come to you and there won’t
be any bad feelings when the trade is done. If no one is willing to offer two resources for
your one, then it wasn’t going to happen anyway. Specifically asking for a 2 for 1 wouldn’t
have made it happen for you, but it would have blown your cover as a shark. It is perfectly
acceptable to offer two resources to get one back. Remember, don’t sound shark-ish. Don’t
make them coax the second resource out of you. If you know you want to offer two, just
offer two right off the bat.

I can’t stress it enough: Be nice. Another 25% of this game is won with good negotiation. If
you aren’t nice, people won’t trade with you when you need it most. If people won’t trade
with you, you’ll lose.

DEVELOPMENT CARDS:

Knowing when and how to play these cards is the final 25% of winning the game. A single
well-played and timely development card can turn your fortunes from hopeless to victorious.

Soldier:

Well, the card you are most often going to see is the soldier. I only have a couple of rules of
thumb about a soldier. I always like to have at least one soldier in front of me. I like to get
one as early in the game as possible – sometimes trading even an early road to get one.
Having the threat of that soldier can keep the robber off of you for around half the game. At
worst, it can still thwart one attempt to take out your best number.

By the time two more more players have reached six victory points, you probably can’t
afford to leave more than one robber face down. Remember, you can only play one
development card per turn. If the end sneaks up on you and you need to make largest army,
you may not have enough time to keep flipping over soldiers. Not to mention that if you
have to use a soldier, you can’t use one of the other great cards in the deck.

Road Building:

The road building card is my personal favorite development card. You should use it ONLY
when you are prepared to build a settlement at the END of it. If you just need one road to
build your settlement, then I’d hold off until later in the game to use road building. The key
to building a settlement is to make sure you get use out of BOTH roads. If you use one, then
just jut the other one off into nowhere, you’ve really wasted the power of this card.

If you already make great wood and bricks, you may just want to hold this until near the end
of the game. At that point, you could come from behind and take the longest road with one
fell swoop. Also, at that point in the game, most people will have figured that it is a single
victory point, not that you’d be able to get two with it.

Discovery:

This card allows you to choose any two resources you want. I would only use this card to
upgrade a settlement to a city. The real advantage here is that you basically get to hold two
cards over your hand limit with impunity. It can be tough to build a city without having to
hold to many cards. If you are in a pinch, you could also use it for a road. I can only
recommend this if you are fighting for position with another player, or if you risk getting
boxed in without enough room for growth. The point of the non-soldier development cards is
to score some points. If you aren’t scoring points with the non-soldier cards, you’re wasting
them.

Monopoly:

Great card. However tempting it may be to use this to build a city, resist the urge. This card
should ONLY be used at the end of the game. If you get it on turn one, you should hold it all
the way until the end. This card is a big finisher card. This is the one you use to come out of
nowhere and seal the deal. If you hold onto one of these sufficiently long, you can fool
people into thinking it is a single victory point. With this card, you should be able to score at
least two victory points, if not three. If you aren’t getting two victory points or more with this
card, wait longer. This one, more than any other, burns a hole in peoples pockets. They
know they have it and they’re just itching to use it. Patience, patience, patience. When you
use this card, you’re going to build up some ill will. If the game is over (or practically over)
when you use it, then it doesn’t matter.

What should you take with Monopoly? Well, basically, whatever there is a ton of. I like to
keep my eye on the supply pile. If any supply pile is particularly low, I know that there is a
ton of that resource out on the table. It is better to take lots of something you don’t need
rather than one or two of something you need desperately, especially if you can trade your
newfound cards at a port.

There is a dirty trick that some people play with this card. That is, if you have lots of wheat,
lets say, you trade it all away to the other players. At that point, you pull out the monopoly
and take back all the wheat you just gave out. This is way, way, way, dirty. This single
maneuver is so filthy that it will never ever be forgotten by anyone who experienced it, saw
it, or heard about it. Even though you arguably get the same number of cards as just
stealing a bunch of something else, people will really, really, hate this one. It just feels
wrong. Don’t get me wrong, this is a powerful play, but if you do it, you’ll have a hard time
ever convincing anyone that you’re a “nice guy” ever again. If you’re in a tournament and
you want to pull this move, you’d better wait until the final table at near the end of the
game. I’ve seen a guy pull this trick earlier than the final and he got shut out of the rest of
the games. If you pull this move, people will you as a shark from then on out. There will be
no more “aw shucks” after you do this, so be warned. I would never pull this move at a Con
or a tournament. I always try to break this out on my family. Why? Well, they already know
I’m a shark, so I don’t really take a big ding to my reputation when I pull this maneuver.

Victory Point:

Whenever I pull a soldier, I let people know it’s a soldier if they ask. Again, the intimidation
faction of unplayed soldiers is great. No matter what other type of development card I pull, if
someone asks me what I got, I tell them “It’s a victory point.” Why? Because I don’t want
them to know about my a road building, monopoly, or discovery that I plan to pull out later.
Any of those other cards might make them less likely to trade with me. I never bluff and say
that I have a soldier I don’t have. That makes me look like a liar right away. As soon as the
robber is put on me and I can’t do anything about it, they know I’m a shark. Cover blown.
My cover will eventually be blown when I show them that the card is actually a monopoly
instead of a VP, but hopefully by then I can win. Remember, if your cover is blown on the
last turn, people pat you on the back and say, “Well played.” If they catch you in the middle,
they won’t let you get that far. A good deal of this game is about bluffing. If you’ve ever
played poker, though, you know that if you bluff a lot, you lose a lot. If you’re going to bluff,
make sure it’s going to help you win.

CONCLUSION:

So there it is. Thanks for getting all the way through it. If you think that the Settlers gods
have cursed you and that you simply can’t win, try some of these ideas. I think you’ll see
your “luck” change before your eyes.