OVERVIEW 1.

US China
a. Trade war
24-25 overall lectures b. Currency war
8-9 lecture Contemporary c. Taiwan ( CHIP WAR – Semiconductor war)
portion – Sir Farid Khan d. Rivalry in the middle east
e. QUAD
4-5 lecture C.A Relations f. BRI
6-8 lecture Security and g. BRI vs B3W And India Middle East Europe.
Politics of Pakistan 2. Russia VS NATO
3 lecture Constitutional a. Resurgence of Russia
developments b. Revival of NATO
2 lecture nuclear securities c. War in Ukrain and its implication
3-4. lecture organization 3. Multipolarity
(BRICS), G20, a. Retreats to U.S
i. U.S debt Crises
Pak Affairs/ CA/ IR / essay/ b. The rise of China
pol sci/ pub adm/ c. The resurgence of Russia
environmental etc. etc. many d. China is playing by the same book US did.
topics are overlapping and 4. Politics of Climate change
cover here a. North – south divide on de carbonization
Sir Farid’s Portion: All the b. COP 21
Contemporary topics and c. Findings of COP 26-27-28
main topics d. Challenges
Either relational, 5. War on terror
international etc. and a. Revival of Taliban in Afghanistan
comparatively old and b. Challenges of Afghan Taliban Government
smaller topics are being c. Why U. S and NATO failed in Afghanistan
devolved to other facilitators. d. The revival of TTP in Pakistan
6. Middle East
a. Saudi Arabia – Iran Rapprochement
b. Yemen
c. Syria
d. Iraq
e. Lebanon
f. Israel (Palestine)
g. Pakistan
h. US- China Rivalry
i. Hammas Israel War – Implications on the region and
global power dynamics
7. Commodities Supercycle
8. BRICS, G20
National Topics:
1. Energy Crises
2. Economy (2 lectures)
I. Balance of payment crisis
II. Budget deficit
III. Trade deficit
IV. Loan and IMF
V. Devaluation of Pkr
VI. Inflation
3. Internal security (TTP)
4. Political crises and instability
Relations: CPEC (China-Pakistan relation)- the decade of CPEC (achievement and
failures)
1. Pak relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran
2. Kashmir issue (Pakistan – India relation)
3. US – India Strategic partnership and its implication on Pakistan
4. Pakistan China strategic partnership
Preparation:
1. Those who wants to study by themselves:
a. National
i. Dawn (editorials and articles)
ii. IPRI
iii. ISSI
iv. IICR
v. Pildat
b. International
i. Foreign affair magazine
ii. Foreign policy magazine
iii. The economist
iv. Wall Street Journal
2. Those who wants to study with us:
a. Facebook group: Sirfaridkhan (data in a proper sequence)
https://www.facebook.com/groups/sirfaridkhan/?ref=share&mibextid=NSMWBT

b. CSS related books:

i. CA book and Magazine of NOA
ii.
c. Lectures

Data Bank:
Data should be in bullet form
separate file for each topic and subjects

start attempting questions according to the data bank.

 Energy Crises in Pakistan
How the energy sector of Pakistan Operates:
1. The use of hydrocarbons (HC)- Oil, gas and coal
In 2022-23, almost 588,000-barrel oil per day consumed
83000 produced locally and remaining 500,000 barrels imported.
Gas used per day, 1 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day
36% produced locally while the rest were imported.
Coal 7.53 Tonne mn in Dec 2021 produced.
6500 Mega Watt electricity were produced per day by coal whereas 2500MW
generated by local coal while other from imported coal.
Hydrocarbons Importers: PSO, Shell, Attock Group of companies.
Producers: OGDCL, POL, MOL
Problem Statement :
Pakistan is not major producer of HC as it imports more and produces less.

2. The hydrocarbon suppliers in Pakistan:

a. PSO: all the importers and local producers of oil handover the oil to
PSO. If it is refined oil, it is directly disbursed but if it is crude oil then it is sent
to the refineries like Attock refinery, Karachi refinery, Hub refinery etc.
Problem statement:
36% oil can be refined maximum and the rest is considered as waste material. The refinery
capacity of U.S is 91%. Saudi Arabia refinery capacity is 85%. China capacity is more than
86%.
PSO disbursed the oil to the electricity producers, fuel pumps, industries etc.
b. Sui Southern and Sui Northern: Sui- Southern deals Sindh and
Baluchistan.
Sui- Northern deals Punjab, KP, AJK and GB. They are gas suppliers to the
industries, electricity producers and domestic sectors.
c. NTDC: National Transmission Dispatch Company- the supply of
electricity from the National Grid to the consumer is take taken by NTDC.
On grass root level it has local disbursing (supplying) bodies. DESCOs for
example IESCO, LESCO, PESCO, FESCO, HESCO, K-ELECTRIC etc.

3. The decision-making bodies:

a. NEPRA: all the major decisions of electricity are taken by NEPRA.
b. OGRA: all the major decisions of oil and gas are taken by OGRA.

4. Major Electricity Producers:

a. WAPDA: almost 28-30 % electricity being produced by WAPDA
b. IPPs: (Independent power producers)- Oil, Coal and gas based. Wind and Solar
based.
c. Civil Nuclear Projects: 2200 MW produced by K2 and K3. C-1,2,3,4 (Chasma
Projects), each generated 340 MW electricity.
5. The role of bank in the energy sector: It provides loans to oil and gas importers
, producers, transporters, electricity generators, to the state of Pakistan
regarding energy projects.

Introducton
a. General start
b. Partcular topic
c. Summary (Conclusion)

Pakistan has been facing multiple and serious challenges like political instability,
constitional crises, security threats, unprecedented economic crises, etc. (General
start). one of the severe crises faced by the country is the energy crises where the
state faces not only the inadequate amount of loadshedding but also mounting
prices of electricity bills. (Partcular/ Specific statement) This energy crises have far
reached negative implications on industries, agriculture, markets, domestic life,
and public sector. There is a need of addressing these crises at the earliest in order
to overcome its negative implications on the national life of Pakistan. (summary)

Problems with the energy sector: Problems in Energy sectors are majorly two, first
loadshedding and secondly expensive electricity generation.
1. Loadshedding In Pakistan:
The energy sector of Pakistan is facing severe loadshedding.
In the Summer 2023, the shortfall was well above the 7000 MW
Loadshedding in the urban centers varies from 4-5 hrs a day while in rural areas 10-
12 hrs a day
In Summer 2022, the short fall was more than 10,000 MW while loadshedding in
the urban center was around 8hrs a day. In rural areas around 16-18 hrs a day.
From 2007 till end of 2016, the shortfall varied from 5000 to 8000 MW
The loadshedding in the urban centers from 2006 to 2016 was around 8hrs
a day. In rural areas, more than 18hrs a day. In 2022-23, dangerous revival
of energy.

2. Expensive electricity generation is the major problem of Pakistan:

As the country generates the most expensive electricity in Asia and 3rd most
expensive electricity generated in the World. (PM of Pakistan)
domestic unit charges vary from 24 to 90 PKRs. The price of per unit decided on
the basis of SLABS being introduced by NEPRA. Below 100 units (1-100units) the
cost is almost 28Pkr including all the taxes and other charges. From 100–300-unit
slab price is 44 Pkr per unit including all the taxes and other charged. From 300-600
unit slab the cost is about 56 pkr per unit. Above 600 units the minimum price per
unit is 72 pkr.
 In commercial (markets, industry, agriculture), it varies from 48 to 90+ PKRs per
unit cost. Slabs are also vary the prices per unit. The prices got almost more than 3
times in the last two years. The cost of domestic unit of slab 300-600 unit, 18pkr in
2022, now the price rises more than 56 Pkr.

Reasons of expensive electricity in Pakistan:

1. Pakistan generates more than 60% electricity through Hydrocarbons (HC).
18000 MW electricity units are installed capacity of oil, more than 7000 MW of
LNG, around 6500 MW of coal. Diesels is most expensive; LNG is the second most
and 3rd the Coal. Almost all the HC being consumed for production of electricity
are imported. All the diesels, LNG, petrol and majority of Coal is being imported.
The prices of HC jumped up in international market aler the war in Ukraine and
Sanctions on Russia. All the HC has been purchased in Dollars while Rupee has
been devalued against dollars. In 2021, if 1-billion-dollar oil is import had a cost of
178 billion Pkr, today it has more than 275 billion Pkr.

2. Expensive agreements with IPP (Independent power producers)

Independent power producers or the private sector producers produces electricity

from HC. These IPP were installed in 1994, 2005, 2011, and 2014. The more the
increase in demand, the more the IPPs got installed. First and the major reasons for
expensive electricity is the capacity payments made to IPPs. In Summers, the
demand is on the peak as in July 2023 it was around 28,000 MW while in winters it
reduces by more than 50% as in January 2023 it was less than 14000 MW. The
agreement with IPP is being signed on the basis of maximum demand. In Summers
the state has to purchase the maximum demand while in winter it reduces
(normally it reduces to 40%). The state has to purchase this much electricity the
minimum. But if the state does not purchase, the required volume of electricity yet
again it has to pay the price. Unprecedented increase in the capacity payment
which is currently more than 2.6 Trillian Pkr. (update figures by your own ☺)
All the IPPs Payment are being paid in Dollars. As far the external IPPs has send
they. Must have to pay in dollars, but locally owned IPPs has being paid in Pkr.
Unfortunately, we have paid the local IPPs in dollars that results into decline in the
dollar reserves.
A Pakistan is facing the highest ever increase in the prices in its history. Its electricity is
atleast 30 % more expensive than that of india and Bangladesh (ADB). Pakistan generates
the most expensive electricity is Asia and 3rd most expensive in the world.(ex-pm). pakistan
generate the most exp electricity in the world (current pm). per unit electricity price got
almost triple in the last 3 years or so. There are numerous reasons responsible for this bt
primarily expensive agreements with IPPs

B process of installation of IPPs began in 1980s in the time of Zia ul Haq. But the 1st major
chunk was added in 1994. 2nd in 2005. 3rd in 2011. 4th and the biggest in 2015 and
onwards.
C. the IPPs installed in 1990s, 2005 were mainly because there was more demand and lesser
generation capacity but the IPPs installed in 2015 and onwards were mainly to shift the
equation from diesel to LNG and coal so that electricities price could be reduced

D. now Pakistan is facing a serious tragedy where the installed capacity is more and the
requirement is less. Total install capacity is more than 42000 MW. (economic survey). While
maximum demand in the peak time that is in summers 2024, 26000MW. It means that the
demand is 16000 MW less than the generation capacity. In moderate period, march 2024
the demand was less than 17000MW, which is 25000MW less than installed capacity. In
winter 2024(jan, feb) the demand was less than 13000MW which is 29000MW less than
installed capacity.

E. the agreement with IPPs is broadly divided into 3 major slabs. For example, an agreement
with a particular IPP is to generate 1000MW electricity. It would install a unit of the same
amount that would generate the needed amount. In peak period, that is summer, it would
not agree to less than 800MW to be sold to the government. In moderate it will not agree to
less than 600MW to be sold to government, in winters not less than 350mw to be sold. If the
government does not buy these minimum thresh holds yet again it has to pay the payment
for the required number of MWs. The tragedy with pakistan’s government is that it cannot
but the minimum thresh holds from majority of IPPs that results into mounting capacity
payment.

F. capacity payment is the amount paid by the gov of Pakistan to the IPPs for the electricity
that is not being generated. The gov agreed on minimum thresh hold to purchase electricity
from respective IPPs but now it cannot buy that thresh hold because less demand, more
installed capacity. In the year 2023-2024, the total capacity payment mounted was 1964
billion pkr. The highest amount paid to any particular IPP was 74 billion pkr and it did not
generate a single MW of electricity. 2nh highest amount paid was 62 billion pkr and
generated no mws. Atleast, 16 IPPs being paid more than 5 billion pkr in the same year but
generated no MWs.

G. among these IPPs many are being owned by Pakistani nationals who belong to the power
corridors directly or indirectly. 5 of the IPPs are being owned by DISCON company whose
owner is ex-minister of PTI government. 4 of the IPPs are owned by Jahangir Tareen. 2 of the
IPPs are being owned by Hamza Shahbaz son of Shahbaz Sharrif. 6 ipps being owned by Mian
Mansha. There are many more Pakistani owned ipps and all are getting billions of rupees
every year in the head of capacity payment.

H. there is a long list of foreign owned IPPs. Mostly from China, UAE, USA etc. Among these
Chinese owned ipps were mostly installed in 2011 and 2015 of generation capacity more
than 15000 MW. Gov is unable to buy he minimum thresh hold of electricity form the
respective ipps, therefore, it has to pay billions in payment to these companies.

I. Agreements with these ipps were not renegotiated n till 2020. Either because of
criminal negligence or the authorities in power earned billions in the form of kick
backs. In 2020, the agreement signed in 2005 and before were renegotiated. In
 which it was decided there would be no more capacity payment. State will pay
only for the number of units being produced. Further more, locally owned will be
paid in pkr but there are 2 problems strongly existing. The agreement not being
applied on the old IPPs. 2nd and most importantly, that is 65% plus of the ipps
are being installed in 2011 and 2015. To which the agreement does not apply and
would not apply till 2030 the least. It means the state has to continue purchasing
expensive electricity from these ipps.

II.
III. which 1320 billion were paid and the rest of the amount is added to the
previously remaining capacity payment which is now 2.6 trillion pkr.

3. The conditionalities of IMF results in making electricity more expensive:

In oct 2022, the Agreement with IMF renegotiate. In March 2023, it renegotiated
again. IMF conditioned the provision of loan to Pakistan with the increase in per
unit price of electricity. To do that subsidies should be waved off. Secondly The fuel
prices would be increased in Pakistan more than 60% of electricity is produced by
fuel. Thirdly, make rupee devalue. The devaluation of Pkr resulted in further in the
prices of electricity. Hydrocarbon is purchased in dollars, Secondly IPP are also paid
in dollars whereas the rupee devalued against dollars. Resultantly the
unprecedently price hike of electricity in Pakistan.

4. Problems with the electricity distribution and transmission system results in

loadshedding and expensive electricity.

The total loss in the transmission and distribution system is aprox. 33%. Out of which,
in transmission it is 17%. As the transmission line of Pakistan is seriously outdated.
Majority of them has got expired either before 2000 or 2010. Resultantly the line
lost in Pakistan is highest in Asia which is 17%. This line lost in China is 3%. Approx.
9% in India and Bangladesh. Around 12% in Afghanistan. This means out of 100 MW
being produced and 17 MW being lost in lines. The cost of it to be afforded by the
state and consumer.
Secondly, there are numerous problem in distribution system, that result in 16% loss
in eelectricity sector. One of the major reasons for the increase in electricity prices
is electricity theft. In South Asia, Pakistan is on the top of the list. The common
pahern of electricity theft is the Konda system, temper the meter reading etc. This
electricity theft in urban centers, Karachi is the top most city, while there is no single
 city where electricity theft is not reported. In urban centers it is mostly done by
industrialist and builders while in rural areas it is by agriculturist who use to thief.
This electricity theft in common areas where the writ of the state. Moreover, there
are a series of areas in Pakistan specially the ex- tribal areas, there is no concept of
electricity bills. Pending of bills on the Government departments, free and subsidies
electricity in certain departments in Pakistan which results in 16% loss.

Implications:
1. Industry is one of the major and worst hit.
The price of the product is decided on the basis of the purchase of raw
material, transportation cost, labor rates and the price of electricity. On one
hand the state has not be able to ensure the non-stop supply of electricity.
On the other hand, the generation cost of electricity has been increased
three times that has resulted in higher production cost of industrial products.
Therefore, the products of Pakistan not been able to compete in
international market those which are produced in Bangladesh and India,
resultantly decline in exports especially in textile, leather, sports products
etc. Industry is the worst hit. More than 200 industries closed in Pakistan
since last 3 years.
Multiple factors are responsible, unprecedented rise in electricity is the
major reason.
2. Setback for the agriculture:
More than 30% of Agriculture of Pakistan is based on tube wells and
digwells. Majority of those tube wells are powered by electricity. The more
the loadshedding the more the set back of agriculture. The cost of
agricultural product rises with the increase in the price of electricity.
3. Increasing Balance of payment crises:
As the product of Pakistan got expansive resultantly, they are least
competitive in International Market, therefore there is decrease in
exports while increase in imports. Resultantly increasing pressure on
dollar reserves. To improves the dollar reserves the Government has
to acquire loans from IMF and ither sources.

4. Implications on domestic life:

More than the 40% of the earning of lower middle class is being consumed
by the electricity bills because there has been unprecedent increase in per
unit price of electricity. This has negatively impacted disturbed the routine
domestic budget of every house hold. Repeated load shedding effected the
domestic life.
5. Commercial market:
Commercial markets effects badly due to increase price of electricity. As Per
unit cost of electricity has been increased almost 3 times in last few years.
Shopkeepers have to add the price of electricity to the price of the product
they sale. Burden is shifted to the consumer. Load shedding have forced
them to make the use of generators in the peak or shopping hours which
are taken from the buyers.
 6. Public life:
Because of loadshedding, deindustrialization in under process. Results in
increase in unemployment. The price of commercial unit has increased.
Therefore, the shopkeeper is bound to add the cost of electricity to the final
cost of the product. On one hand purchasing capacity of people decline on
the other the earning of the businessman is tremendously curtailed.
Therefore, electricity tariffs have become the major socio-economic
problem of the company that has been far reaching negative implication on
the national life of the country.

Solutions:
1. Renegotiate the agreements of IPPs.
The agreement signed in 1986, 1991, 1994, 2002, and 2005 should have been
negotiated long time ago but unfortunately decades long delay was made by the
successive governments. Until 2020, when these agreements were renegotiated no
more capacity payments, local IPPs would pay off in Pkr. It was a positive
development but the it has solved the problem maximum by 40%. As majority of
IPPS being installed in 2011 and 2014, which cannot be renegotiated till 2028.
2. Install local and cheaper electricity projects.
Energy policy 2030, focuses on indigenization of electricity generation. 15000 MW
of electricity would be produced from hydel projects, in which diamer basha dam
would add 4500 MW by 2029, Dasu would add 4300 MW by 2027, Mumand dam
800 MW by 2025, Karot has already started generation of 730 MW, Sukhi kinari
would 883 MW etc. Secondly increasing focus on electricity from local coal of Thar,
as one project of 1320 MW, and 4 projects of 320 MW each are already completed.
Thirdly, 4500 MW would be produced by wind turbines and 3000 MW from solar
projects. The objective of Pakistan is to achieve zero percent of dependency on
important hydrocarbons for electricity generation by 2030.

3. Revamp / updated the transmission lines

Though it is an expensive phenomenon but the country is in dire need of changing
the outdated transmission lines. The local transmission and the broader network
NTDC (National transmission dispatch) needs to be changed. The line lose and the
electricity thel would be greatly reduced.

4. The writ of the state must be improved in order to stop electricity theft.
And to get the bill in time. Furthermore, the state must ensure that no
department will get free electricity.
5. Privatization of electricity system, state should play the role of
regulator.

Conclusion:
Above steps mentioned steps will be taken, not only loadshedding would be over
with that would help to decrease the overall price per unit.