Bayesian networks in AI
A Bayesian network is a type of graphical model that uses probability to determine
the occurrence of an event. It is also known as a belief network or a causal network.
It consists of directed cyclic graphs (DCGs) and a table of conditional probabilities to
find out the probability of an event happening. It contains nodes and edges, where
edges connect the nodes. The graph is acyclic - meaning there is no direct path
where one node can reach another. The table of probability, on the other hand,
shows the likelihood that a random variable will take on certain values.
The above image illustrates a directed acyclic graph. There are five nodes, namely,
a, b, c, d, and e. From the above graph, we can get the following information:
1. Node a is the parent of node b, c, and e, and node b, c, and e are
the child nodes of node a.
2. Node b and c are the parent nodes of d.
3. Node e is the child node of nodes d, c, and a.
It is important to note the relationships between the nodes. Bayesian networks fall
under probabilistic graphical techniques; hence, probability plays a crucial role in
defining the relationship among these nodes.
There are two types of probabilities that you need to be fully aware of in Bayesian
networks:
1. Joint probability
Joint probability is a probability of two or more events happening together. For
example, the joint probability of two events A and B is the probability that both events
occur, P(A∩B).
2. Conditional probability
Conditional probability defines the probability that event B will occur, given that event
A has already occurred. There are two ways joint probability can be represented:
The conditional probability distribution of each node is represented by a table called
the "node table". It contains two columns, one for each possible state of the parent
node (or "parent random variable") and one for each possible state of the child node
(or "child random variable").
The rows in this table correspond to all possible combinations of parent and child
states. In order to find out how likely it is that a certain event will happen, we need to
sum up the probabilities from all paths of that event.
Bayesian network in artificial intelligence
examples
Here’s an example to better understand the concept.
You have installed a burglar alarm at home. The alarm not only detects burglary but
also responds to minor earthquakes. You have two neighbors, Chris and Martin, who
have agreed to get in touch with you when the alarm rings. Chris calls you when he
hears the alarm but sometimes confuses it with the telephone ringing and calls. On
the other hand, Martin is a music lover who sometimes misses the alarm due to the
loud music he plays.
Problem:
Based on the evidence on who will or will not call, find the probability of a burglary
occurring in the house.
In a Bayesian network, we can see nodes as random variables.
There are five nodes:
1. Burglary (B)
2. Earthquake (E)
3. Alarm (A)
4. Chris calls ( C )
5. Martin calls (M)
Links act as causal dependencies that define the relationship between the nodes.
Both Chris and Martin call when there is an alarm.
Let’s write the probability distribution function formula for the above five nodes.
Now, let's look at the observed values for each of the nodes with the table of
probabilities:
Node B:
Node E:
Node A:
Node C:
Node M:
Based on the above observed values, the conditional values can be derived and,
therefore, the probability distribution can be calculated.
Conditional values for the above nodes are:
Node A:
Node C:
Node M:
What is the probability of both Chris and Martin calling, but neither a
burglary nor an earthquake has occurred?
To calculate the joint distribution, we use the formula:
“P[B,E,A,C,M] = P[C | A] P[M | A] P[A | B, E] P[B | E] P[E]”
Applications of Bayesian networks in AI
Bayesian networks find applications in a variety of tasks such as:
1. Spam filtering: A spam filter is a program that helps in detecting unsolicited and
spam mails. Bayesian spam filters check whether a mail is spam or not. They use
filtering to learn from spam and ham messages.
2. Biomonitoring: This involves the use of indicators to quantify the concentration
of chemicals in the human body. Blood or urine is used to measure the same.
3. Information retrieval: Bayesian networks assist in information retrieval for
research, which is a constant process of extracting information from databases. It
works in a loop. Hence, we have to continuously reconsider and redefine our
research problem to avoid data overload.
4. Image processing: A form of signal processing, image processing uses
mathematical operations to convert images into digital format. Once images are
converted, their quality can be enhanced with more operations. The input image
doesn’t necessarily have to be in the form of an image; it could be a photograph or a
video frame.
5. Gene regulatory network: A Bayesian network is an algorithm that can be
applied to gene regulatory networks in order to make predictions about the effects of
genetic variations on cellular phenotypes. Gene regulatory networks are a set of
mathematical equations that describe the interactions between genes, proteins, and
metabolites. They are used to study how genetic variations affect the development of
a cell or organism.
6. Turbo code: Turbo codes are a type of error correction code capable of
achieving very high data rates and long distances between error correcting nodes in
a communications system. They have been used in satellites, space probes, deep-
space missions, military communications systems, and civilian wireless
communication systems, including WiFi and 4G LTE cellular telephone systems.
7. Document classification: This is a problem often encountered in computer
science and information science. Here, the main issue is to assign a document
multiple classes. The task can be achieved manually and algorithmically. Since
manual effort takes too much time, algorithmic documentation is done to complete it
quickly and effectively.
We have seen what Bayesian networks in machine learning are and how they work.
To recap, they are a type of probabilistic graphical model. The first stage of belief
networks is to convert all possible states of the world into beliefs, which are either
true or false. In the second stage, all possible transitions between states are
encoded as conditional probabilities. The final stage is to encode all possible
observations as likelihoods for each state.
A belief network can be seen as an inference procedure for a set of random
variables, conditioned on some other random variables. The conditional
independence assumptions define the joint probability distribution from which the
conditional probabilities are computed.
FAQs
Why are Bayesian networks important in AI?
Ans: Bayesian networks are helpful for solving probabilistic problems. Such issues
depend on too many variables. Since Bayesian networks are probabilistic in nature,
they help predict events and derive relationships between multiple variables or
events. These relationships are derived on the basis of joint and conditional
probabilities.
What is the difference between Markov networks and Bayesian networks?
Ans: While both networks comprise nodes and edges, they are very different in their
functioning. A Markov network is undirected and could be acyclic, while a Bayesian
network is directed and acyclic.
What do Bayesian networks predict?
Ans: The sole purpose of using Bayesian networks to make probabilistic models in
artificial intelligence. Such models involve many variables that are dependent on
each other. Due to this, finding the probability of an event becomes difficult.
Bayesian networks make the task easier as they help find the joint and conditional
probability between two events effectively.
Why are Bayesian networks acyclic?
Ans: Bayesian networks need to be acyclic in order to make sure that their
underlying probability distribution is normalized to 1.
