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10 views3 pages

Assignment2 Solution

Uploaded by

abidkargilee
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Name: _________________________ DISC 203 – Assignment 2(5%)

LUMS ID: _____________________ Tuesday, October,4, 2022


Section #: ____________________ Due: Monday, October 17, 2022 (10pm) Total Marks - 10

Q1. Ten new products have been developed by a food-products firm. Market research has indicated that the
10 products have the characteristics described by the following Venn diagram:

(a) Write the event that a product possesses all the desired characteristics as an intersection of the events
defined in the Venn diagram. Which products are contained in this intersection? [0.5]

PSA

6, 7

(b) If one of the 10 products were selected at random to be marketed, what is the probability that it
would possess all the desired characteristics? [0.5]

P (P  S  A) = 2/10 = 0.2

(c)Write the event that the randomly selected product would give the firm a competitive advantage or
would satisfy consumers as a union of the events defined in the Venn diagram. Find the probability of this
union. [0.5]

AS

P (A  S) = 8/10 = 0.8

(d) Write the event that the randomly selected product would possess superior product characteristics
and satisfy consumers. Find the probability of this intersection. [0.5]

PS

P (P  S) = 3/10 = 0.3

(e) Two of the 10 products will be selected for an ad campaign. How many different pairs of products are
possible? [1]

10 ! 10 ×9 × 8!
10 C 2= = =45
2 ! ( 10−2 ) ! 2 ×8 !
Name: _________________________ DISC 203 – Assignment 2(5%)
LUMS ID: _____________________ Tuesday, October,4, 2022
Section #: ____________________ Due: Monday, October 17, 2022 (10pm) Total Marks - 10

Q2. In a double intrusion detection system, if there is an intruder, system A sounds an alarm with probability
0.9, and system B sounds an alarm with probability 0.95. If there is no intruder, system A sounds an alarm
with probability 0.2, and system B sounds an alarm with probability 0.1. The probability of an intruder is 0.4.
Assume systems A and B operate independently. If both systems sound an alarm, what is the probability that
an intruder is detected? [3]
Name: _________________________ DISC 203 – Assignment 2(5%)
LUMS ID: _____________________ Tuesday, October,4, 2022
Section #: ____________________ Due: Monday, October 17, 2022 (10pm) Total Marks - 10

Q3. Each year, J.D. Power and Associates publishes the results of its North American Hotel Guest Satisfaction
Index Study. For 2009, the study revealed that 66% of hotel guests were aware of the hotel’s “green”
conservation program. Among these guests, 72% actually participated in the program by reusing towels and
bed linens. In a random sample of 15 hotel guests, consider the number (x) of guests who were aware of and
participated in the hotel’s conservation efforts.

(a) Use the rules of probability to determine the value of p for this binomial experiment. [1]

p = 0.66*0.72 = 0.4752

(b) Assume p=0.45. Find the probability that at least 10 of the 15 hotel guests were aware of and participated
in the hotel’s conservation efforts. You can use R for the computation.[1]

P(x>=10) = 1- P(x<=9) = 0.0769

(c) Assume p=0.45. Compute the E(x). Verify your computation using 100000 simulations of the relevant
binomial experiment in R. [2]

E(x) = np = 15*0.45 = 6.75

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