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KPMG 30 Voices On The Future of Energy

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30 VOICES

ON 2030
The Future of Energy

KPMG.com/au/30voicesonenergy
30 Voices on 2030:
The Future of Energy
The energy landscape is undergoing unprecedented change. To explore what
the energy landscape could look like, KPMG asked 30 Voices to place themselves
in 2030 and look back over the last ten years. The 30 Voices in this report cover
every facet of the energy industry and beyond – from incumbents to challengers,
big tech firms to investors, government ministers to academics and more.
Taken together, the Voices create a valuable chorus of insight and expertise.
Their predictions span six areas in which KPMG also envisages dramatic change
– they are supported by a survey run by KPMG of over 240 energy and natural
resource businesses across Australia which was carried out in mid-2021:

1. 2. 3.
THE ENERGY MIX OF 2030 E SG AND THE DATA - THE FUEL BEHIND
TRANSFORMATION AGENDA NEW ENERGY
69% of survey respondents
agreed that most
businesses and households in 59% of survey respondents
agreed that in 2030 a law 74% of survey respondents
agreed that most
Australia will have shifted to use of will have been passed requiring households will be actively monitoring
solar and battery storage in 2030. companies to meet specific and adapting their energy usage
ESG targets. through the adoption of smart energy
monitoring devices in 2030.

4. 5. 6.
P EOPLE AND TALENT – THE ENERGY THE 2030 POLICY AGENDA AND BEYOND NET ZERO – THE PUSH FOR THE
BATTLE GROUND GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE GREENEST ENERGY
65% of survey respondents
agreed that to attract and 60% of survey respondents
agreed that the shift 65% of survey respondents
agreed that in 2030,
retain talent in 2030, industry leaders towards raw materials needed for the challenges of meeting net zero
in energy and natural resources will ‘green’ technology and low emission targets will mean all forms of
have strong plans to meet net zero renewable energy fuels has pushed carbon capture technology will
emissions well before 2050. Australia to be a dominant member in be considered.
terms of geopolitics.

Many of the views expressed in this report may be personal and do not necessarily
represent those of the Voices’ organisations or that of KPMG.
30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 4

Cassandra Hogan
NATIONAL INDUSTRY LEADER
ENERGY & NATURAL RESOURCES
KPMG AUSTRALIA

In the past year, the conversation on energy

transition and decarbonisation has accelerated.
The science has been clear for some time: the
world will need to move to net zero emissions
if we are to avoid severe climate damage.
This goal has now been embraced by stakeholders
across consumers, investors, communities
and governments.
The insights from the 30 leaders we the grid is changing, becoming more
interviewed for our 30 Voices on 2030: distributed and reliant on a more diverse
The Future of Energy show the industry range of energy sources and storage.
is undergoing a profound transformation. Sectors are converging, presenting new
Supply of energy is shifting to opportunities and challenges.
renewables and lower emissions fuels.
Consumers and industrial users are We know, too, that the decisions we
becoming more active participants in make today will be critical in shaping
the energy market. They are choosing the future of energy tomorrow. So,
new technologies, products and data where will we be at the start of the
to meet their needs. At the same time, new decade, in the year 2030?

©2021 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English company
limited by guarantee. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are trademarks used under license by the independent member firms of the KPMG global organisation.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 5

Why 30 Voices on 2030: The Future of Energy?

We asked 30 leaders in the Australian released our first KPMG Impact Report
energy sector and beyond (insiders, aimed at enhancing the transparency
outsiders, disruptors and policy makers) to and accountability of our firm, including
project themselves into the year 2030 and the capture of our own environmental
make bold predictions on what the energy footprint and sustainability initiatives.
future could look like for Australia. We are also investing in capabilities
that will assist our clients in navigating
These ‘Voices’ capture a range of these choices.
views on the different energy transition
pathways between now and 2030. I hope the insights and predictions
of our 30 Voices will challenge your
One point on which they all agree is own thinking. We want to stimulate
the that industry will be fundamentally conversations about the actions needed
transformed – reshaped by changing to get us to the energy world we want to
stakeholder expectations, driven by have in 2030 and beyond.
technology, digitisation, regulation,
evolving customer expectations and other Whilst the exact pathway for energy to
innovative and disruptive forces. And in a get us there is still unclear, I am confident
world where ESG is front of mind for all the actions we take over the course of the
stakeholders, how you grow over the next next decade will be key to achieving a new
decade will truly matter. and positive energy future.

KPMG Australia is also committed to

playing a constructive part in the energy
transition towards 2030. This year we

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 6

Contents
PREDICTIONS FOR 2030 07

Alan Yu, LAVO 18 Justine Jarvinen, UNSW Energy Institute 52

Alba Ruiz Leon, Cornwall Insight 20 Lily D'Ambrosio, Victorian Government 54
Alexandra Clunies-Ross, Artesian 22 Lynne Gallagher, Energy Consumers Australia 58
Angus Taylor, Australian Government 24 Mark Mazurek, Linfox 60
Audrey Zibelman, X, the Moonshot Factory 26 Matthew Warren, E nergy Journalist & Market Commentator 62
Ben Wilson, Australian Gas Infrastructure Group 28 Mike Nicholls, Main Sequence Ventures 64
Brian Janous, Microsoft 30 Patrick Hartley, CSIRO Energy 66
Chris McGrath, 5B Australia 34 Robert J. Johnston, Eurasia Group 70
Chris Reed, Neometals 36 Sally-Ann Williams, Cicada Innovations 72
Dan Adams, Amber Electric 38 Stephanie Unwin, Horizon Power 74
Innes Willox, Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) 40 Stephen Harty, Gladstone LNG 76
Jason Chang, EMR Capital 42 Ted Surette, E nergy transition advisor and Non-Executive Director 78
Jemma Green, Powerledger 46 Tim Buckley, IEEFA 80
Joanne Fox, AGL Energy 48 Tim Nelson, Iberdrola Australia 82
John C. Mankins, Solar Space Technologies 50 Tom Ridsdill-Smith, Woodside Energy 84

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 87

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 7

Predictions for 2030

1. THE ENERGY MIX OF 2030 2. ESG AND THE TRANSFORMATION AGENDA

Renewables Closure of coal- Hydrogen, ESG has been The entire energy Electrification and
are now fired power plants green and blue, incorporated in core value chain has low emissions
predominantly is underway. Gas dominates business strategy. been overhauled transportation
powering Australia. continues to be an the remaining Laggards will be and reconfigured. is transforming
option to provide decarbonisation starved from capital whole cities and
firming capacity journey. investments. industries.
for intermittent
renewables.

3. DATA – THE FUEL BEHIND NEW ENERGY 4. PEOPLE AND TALENT – THE ENERGY BATTLE GROUND

The availability of Cyber security is a Digital verification The energy The data driven Increasing
data and artificial priority investment and tracking industry is facing energy system uncertainties
intelligence (AI) has focus to future of energy and a talent crisis for is seeing a rise in around the
increased demand proof the new emissions has contemporary demand for data pandemic and
flexibility and energy system. become standard energy and management and climate change
energy efficiency; in global trade. technology skills. AI skills; data is mean operational
protecting the also driving more resilience is crucial.
consumer is leadership decisions.
paramount.

5. THE 2030 POLICY AGENDA AND GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE 6. BEYOND NET ZERO – THE PUSH FOR THE GREENEST ENERGY

In an evolving Net zero is a Governments Technology focus “Green The decarbonisation

geopolitical bipartisan issue; the have reinforced is positioned investment” is action is now with
landscape, the race urgency of acting to policies to protect around emissions now known hard-to-abate
to decarbonise mitigate the impact consumers and reduction and as simply sectors.
is amplifying of climate change communities. clean energy. “investment”.
uncertainties. has accelerated
policy making.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 8

Predictions
for 2030
It’s 2030. The energy industry landscape looks
very different to what it did ten years ago.
A tipping point has been reached during this
decade. Many countries and companies are
on the way to realising their net zero goals
as the pace of change in the sector has been
faster than at any other time in its history,
and therefore fraught with challenges. The
foundation of this new energy system has
shifted from fossil fuels to clean electrification.
While climate change concerns have forced
stricter decarbonisation and ESG targets for
both governments and companies, seeking
to stay relevant to consumers has become a
priority, meaning getting to net zero is now at
the top of most corporate agendas.

For Australia the energy transition means major new opportunities.

Big decisions made earlier in the decade have been key to energy
market success by 2030. Governments and companies who
foresaw the changes needed acted early, whereas laggards were
left behind. They realised that managing fossil fuel assets and
production costs were less important in a fast-electrifying world
where renewable power is cheap and abundant. They quickly
switched focus to offering differentiated low carbon energy
services to the new energy consumer - such services are now a
major source of value and growth.
What seemed like a major task in the early 2020s is today seen
as a common purpose. The future is there to be shaped. The
decisions and actions taken in the last decade have shifted the dial
and helped to create an industry that is decarbonising for survival,
more accessible and thriving today in 2030.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 9

1. The Energy Mix of 2030

Renewables are Closure of coal- Hydrogen,
now predominantly fired power plants green and blue,
powering Australia. is underway. Gas dominates
continues to be an the remaining
option to provide decarbonisation
firming capacity journey.
for intermittent
renewables.

By 2030, Australia has changed its energy mix and has uses including where gas is a feedstock to other processes.
the highest global per capita penetration of renewable Selective domestic gas networks have been converted
power generation and storage. Diverse storage and to 10% hydrogen blend and there are hydrogen hubs
balancing technologies (demand response, lithium expanding on Australia’s east coast. Threshold choices are
batteries, hydrogen, pumped hydro) are being used to being made in different parts of the country to transition
solve intermittency issues for solar and wind generation, networks to zero emissions gas or fully electrify. Hydrogen
as is natural gas, particularly as plans are now in place to is also starting to be used in hard to abate sectors such as
progressively phase out coal-fired power generation plants. industrial processing, the steel and aluminium industries
and heavy vehicle haulage.
Australia’s head start in this energy transition was facilitated
by its rich renewable resource base, but new policy Growing hydrogen demand means more purpose-built
initiatives also helped. Early in the decade it created multiple hydrogen infrastructure to support both the domestic
renewable energy zones (REZs) which are now generating and export markets. Demand is also being sustained by
vast amounts of cheap, reliable, and clean energy, attracting widespread fiscal and regulatory incentives. By 2030, the
additional global energy investment. Today, Australia is a distinctions of blue and green for hydrogen are all but gone,
new player in offshore wind in the world market, with a as it is largely produced using zero emission methods.
continuous flow of projects under development. Australia is now expected to become the dominant exporter
of hydrogen to Asia over the next 20 years (2030-2050).
The nation remains a major LNG exporter as its export
markets undertake their own complex energy transition and The acceleration of renewable power generation, and the
increasingly switch fuel towards a gas and renewable mix. demise of coal, has made synchronous condensers, grid
This trade has strengthened interconnectivity between Asia forming batteries and hydrogen ready gas plants more
Pacific and the Australian east coast domestic market, but important to maintain grid reliability and resilience. While
volatility of change remains a constant. The industry has this continues to provide some revenue to incumbent
focussed initially on reducing its scope 1 and 2 emissions. thermal power plants, the rapid decarbonisation and
However, cost pressures and regulatory challenges in new innovation of the energy system is providing cheaper lower
gas developments and long-term demand uncertainty from carbon alternatives - the end of all high emission thermal
pressure to reduce scope 3 emissions in export markets power generation is now in sight.
have substantially reduced new gas exploration. Hence the
industry is increasingly focussed on zero emission sources The transition to new REZs, distributed energy resources
of energy to service the next phase of the global energy and dynamic dual flow networks required significant
transition, including the use of carbon capture and storage. investments. This needed to navigate consumer
requirements for a reliable and affordable energy transition
A new hydrogen economy has developed. Early and financiers' requirements for investable markets. This
pilot hydrogen projects are now proven, deployment level of investment saw the government interventions
incentives are now in place and Australia has a gigawatt in energy projects during the early 2020s continue into
scale production capacity. Existing gas infrastructure the 2030s, particularly where new decarbonisation
has been used for scaling hydrogen and facilitating cost technologies are being deployed.
competitiveness, and still servicing transitioning natural gas

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 10

2. ESG and the

Transformation Agenda
ESG has been The entire energy Electrification and
incorporated in core value chain has low emissions
business strategy. been overhauled transportation
Laggards will be and reconfigured. is transforming
starved from capital whole cities and
investments. industries.

Maintaining a social license in this energy transition Reducing renewable energy industry waste has become
is a major focus of organisations. In 2030, Australian important for all companies. The solar and battery
companies are required by law to report on ESG targets industries have implemented domestic recycling
while businesses without tangible achievements in schemes, like mobile phone recycling schemes of the
reducing their carbon footprint are being starved of new last few decades. Water waste is also high on corporate
funding from investors and external markets. Business agendas, as climate change continues to disrupt weather
success now depends on ESG themes from 2021 - patterns. Even though water consumption in some
understanding and meeting the demands of consumers renewable technologies like hydrogen is still low compared
and investors and anticipating and implementing policy to other industry sectors like agriculture, rapid hydrogen
changes. Australia is not at net zero, but significant industry growth has brought water usage, particularly in
progress is being made. hot countries like Australia, into sharp focus.

The energy ecosystem has become more complex and By 2030, Australia has a stronger green mobility pathway
distributed. There are more players than ever before, driven by clearer policy and regulation mechanisms.
including new and adjacent industry entrants, and Infrastructure has now mostly adapted to support Electric
incumbents are transforming to stay competitive. Most Vehicles (EV’s) following discussions earlier in the decade
energy and mining companies have moved into wind, with the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to
solar and hydrogen while whole new sectors of consumer ensure a broader range of EV options. These include such
co-operatives, electric and hydrogen vehicle players and measures as the cessation of all production and purchases
new building and storage companies are emerging. Being of new internal combustion engine vehicles, standards
organisationally agile and adapting business models to ensuring minimal waste (such as EV batteries) and more
seize new market opportunities is now crucial as the consistent road pricing mechanisms to reduce the number
nature of investments, mergers, divestments, and service of older vehicles in use.
offerings has fundamentally changed.
The greening of Australia’s public and heavier vehicle
The COVID-19 pandemic from earlier in the decade put fleets has been a notable success. Most buses are now
considerable strain on global supply chains which has been electric while large vehicle technology has improved
exacerbated by the energy transition. The surge in demand the fleet. New infrastructure and the better range and
for critical minerals and raw materials means that demand power-to-weight benefits of heavier vehicles means
now outstrips supply. As the medium-term outlook for that the transition to hydrogen fuel cells in haulage
carbon intensive gas demand declines, the LNG export and mining fleets becoming electric and/or hydrogen
industry, supported by the Australian Government, powered is well underway.
is heavily investing in Carbon Capture and Storage
technology. It is also actively developing industrial scale
hydrogen export projects, leveraging its long-standing
trading and supply chain relationships.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 11

3. Data – the Fuel Behind

New Energy
The availability of Cyber security is a Digital verification
data and artificial priority investment and tracking
intelligence has focus to future proof of energy and
increased demand the new energy emissions has
flexibility and energy system. become standard in
efficiency; protecting global trade.
the consumer is
paramount.

The hallmark of the new energy system is greater and flexibility. Companies doing this well are employing
electrification and more distributed energy - generated via AI to clean up and analyse massive amounts of data and
millions of solar panels and wind turbines all connected to utilising it to better understand and serve their customers.
the grid through inverters. The system is more intelligent They are differentiating themselves through efficient
and integrated and creates huge amounts of data. Energy and cost-effective energy services as well as greater
usage is more efficient as it is better managed through personalisation of their services.
automation - controlling millions of devices in customers’
homes (with consent) - including household batteries, By 2030, cyber security has become a key focus area for
electric vehicle chargers, electric hot water systems, air de-risking and future proofing the energy system. Largely
conditioners and heaters. driven by geopolitical concerns around the activities of nation
states, the transition to net zero and the growing digitisation
Machine learning and other AI technologies are influencing of the energy system, investment in cyber security has
energy consumption behaviours through greater grid risen dramatically. In 2030, cyber-attacks are very common
flexibility. This means it is now fully optimised and operates in an energy system which has end-to-end connectivity, is
with increased demand response, capacity, efficiency, and more automated and has full cloud capabilities. There are
storage. Deriving further insights from this more integrated considerable global tensions as cyber threats grow in scale
system, companies can better control costs while offering and complexity. Networks have had to invest in redundancy
cheaper and more relevant services for their customers. to boost resilience.

The changes in the market are also creating opportunities for This energy system is not only more complex but more
new energy and technology industry players. The enhanced transparent. The digital verification and the tracking of the
real-time visibility of the energy system, and the accessibility source of energy and emissions is standard for domestic
of information via online “platforms”, has allowed new and international trade. There is strong demand for certified
entrants to challenge incumbents in all business segments, zero emissions products, with AI and blockchain technology
blurring the boundaries between networks, retailers, and helping to classify which products are sustainable and
other service providers. In Australia, as elsewhere, the low carbon. As the digitisation of the energy supply chain
sheer volume of personal data, driven by smart devices, expands, a growth industry is developing around the sourcing
online platforms and IoT, has led to increased application of and tracking of commodities. Companies able to validate their
regulations such as Consumer Data Right (CDR) and General energy as green and those who have created a transparent
Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), giving consumers control and integral supply chain compliant with ESG commitments
of their own data and who they share it with. are capturing a greater share of new energy demand.

Trust is now a key differentiator for energy companies -

protecting customer data and privacy and ensuring they
are receiving the fairest energy services and prices are all
non-negotiable. Customers have higher expectations - not
only around how sustainable their energy is but also its value

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 12

4. People and Talent –

the Energy Battle Ground
The energy The data driven Increasing
industry is facing energy system uncertainties
a talent crisis for is seeing a rise in around the
contemporary demand for data pandemic and
energy and management climate change
technology skills. and AI skills; data mean operational
is also driving resilience is crucial.
more leadership
decisions.

During the decade leading up to 2030, the way in which operations, product, customer service and technology
organisations approached talent management had to groups, changing mindsets and behaviours to create
change along with the energy system. As the application more data driven business outcomes. As leaders better
of AI proliferated and the sector became more automated, understand the problems data can solve, risk management
demand for both office and field workers declined. is also improving.
Successful organisations who protected and created jobs
by cross and up-skilling employees so they could transition The war for contemporary infrastructure and technology
into other parts of their businesses were able to maintain talent is acute. Boomers with decades of engineering
their social license to operate. skills have retired. New role creation is centred around the
massive expansion of the zero-emissions energy sector -
This changing way of working is having longer term impacts. infrastructure associated with renewable energy zones, new
As hybrid and remote working became common practice, energy networks and the decommissioning and repurposing
leaders have had to adapt their management style and of existing infrastructure. Industry focus continues to
make use of different techniques and channels to maintain develop in the areas of carbon capture and sequestration,
engagement with their teams. It has also transformed cities hydrogen, energy storage and ancillary products and services.
and suburbs into quieter and busier places respectively. Organisations in these sectors are finding their commitment
Commuter and air travel growth, particularly for business to net zero is enabling them to better attract and retain their
use, is on a lower trajectory, with the pandemic and net zero workforces. Companies that failed to take talent management
commitments reinforcing a growing social norm of video seriously have been left behind.
conferencing and staycations.
The digitalisation of the energy system is also supporting a
There is newfound collaboration between governments, more people centred approach. Companies are now fully
industry, and academia, primarily based on the employment understanding the enhanced value coming from diversity and
impact of the energy transition. In Australia, many companies are using a more diverse workforce to orchestrate alliances in
have made widespread operational changes such as the broader energy ecosystem. Technology is also improving
bringing offshore customer service jobs and select supply Health Safety and Environmental initiatives (HSE) with
chains home, while many of the technical skills learnt in the automation, AR/VR and digital twin simulations enabling safer
traditional energy sector have been transferred or adapted to working environments through faster, more accessible and
the decarbonised energy sector via targeted training initiatives cost-effective training.
with varying levels of success.
In 2030, the key to business survival and success in the
Energy companies have had to transform themselves into energy world is organisational resilience. Climate change
data management experts. The shortage of data and AI skills, and the geopolitics of new energy are intensifying the
already evident earlier in the decade, is increasing due to high unpredictable environment, adding another layer of tension to
demand across all industries. Leaders have invested to build those already there including challenges following the global
data and AI skills into existing and new roles, while data driven pandemic. HSE initiatives now routinely include mental health
insights underpin most C-suite decision making. This data as supporting the workforce through the many uncertainties
heavy energy industry has created demand for data business in 2030 is now a priority.
partners or “translators” who liaise between leadership,

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 13

5. The 2030 Policy Agenda

and Geopolitical Landscape
In an evolving Net zero is a Governments have
geopolitical bipartisan issue; the reinforced policies to
landscape, the race urgency of acting to protect consumers
to decarbonise mitigate the impact and communities.
is amplifying of climate change
uncertainties. has accelerated
policy making.

By 2030, the race to decarbonisation is reshaping benefits, and no community is left behind. Communities
the global power map. The geopolitics of energy is have been at the heart of the energy changes; today
transforming as demand for the critical minerals needed there are millions of Australian citizens who own and
for cleaner energy grows. However, countries are pursuing manage their own power generation and storage systems
decarbonisation agendas at different speeds, resulting in a (including EVs). This energy transformation feels more
proliferation of ad hoc policies. inclusive, not only because the consumer is at the heart of
it, but because energy is more readily available, cheaper,
Australia, today, plays a key part in the energy transition
and more efficient.
as it has some of the world's largest resources of the
commodities and critical minerals needed for this energy Changing societal expectations have been crucial in
transition. Cobalt, nickel, lithium and rare earths all make the transition. Whilst consumers and communities
up a bigger part of Australian exports today, along with its have demanded clean, reliable, and cheap energy this
more traditional commodities like iron ore, copper, gold and also came with physical siting issues and complexities
metallurgical coal. with community consultation. Governments retained
strong regulatory oversight over energy prices and have
In this radically different geopolitical landscape defined
introduced stricter protection measures for the more
by the rise in unilateralism, trade and investment policy
vulnerable. The transition has caused some assets to be
have become political tools for pursuing national strategic
stranded and new opportunities created.
interests, creating an era of global mistrust. Tensions are
appearing all over the world as countries not only seek In Australia, areas dependant on more traditional energy
critical minerals to meet new renewable energy demand sector employment are being supported through the
but are also imposing tariffs and regulations on fossil fuel transition; higher investment in education, upskilling
imports and less sustainable goods. Australia has had to in low emissions technologies and repurposing of
respond to these risks. Legal action regarding Scope 3 brownfield sites are all playing a significant part. Green
emissions and unsustainable consumer products is now initiatives such as energy rebates, no interest loans
common and is reinforcing policy and investment drivers for high energy efficient properties, minimum rented
for change. Increasingly, trade routes are being redefined property energy efficiency standards and retrofitting
and prioritised by their level of transparency and how green inefficient household energy systems are also creating
the products are in their supply chains. a more inclusive transition.

The speed of change has seen the energy system

becoming increasingly unreliable and unstable, requiring
significant regulatory change and government intervention.
In Australia, transitional mechanisms have also been put in
place to ensure that its regions are supported and thriving
in the transition. There is also a strong focus on ensuring
this energy transition is democratic - that everyone

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 14

6. Beyond Net Zero – the Push

for the Greenest Energy
Technology focus “Green The decarbonisation
is positioned investment” action is now with
around emissions is now known hard-to-abate
reduction and as simply sectors.
clean energy. “investment.”

By 2030, there has been an upsurge of carbon positive What was considered “energy activism” in 2020 is now, in 2030,
technologies with the focus firmly on an accelerated path to mainstream due to the influence from climate legal cases. It is
zero emissions. These new technologies are supporting the seen as fundamental to sustaining pressure on governments and
development and growth of sectors such as energy services, organisations alike. The major shift towards more sustainable living
electric vehicles, hydrogen, big storage/batteries and carbon being driven by aging millennials is often supported by activist
capture and sequestration. organisations acting as the consumer voice.

The natural gas industry is changing fast as it services the energy For those organisations who have not achieved net-zero by 2030,
transition in Asia, replacing coal, and develops alternative ways of realising it over the next decade will require greater downstream
exporting low emissions energy molecules. Industrial heating and integration. Technology and innovation will continue to drive
processing, and domestic heating in the cooler regions are in the the different pathways that have emerged, electrifying and
process of moving to zero emissions gas and electrification. All hydrogenising whole sectors - even those which are hard to
new gas plants are being built to be hydrogen ready. Governments decarbonise such as aviation, maritime, industrial processing,
have co-invested significantly with the private sector in the and heavy industries. For leading organisations, a new north
development of major energy hubs and precincts to both de-risk star is emerging. They are already looking beyond being carbon
and decarbonise the energy system. neutral and aspiring to becoming carbon negative. They want
to pay back their carbon debt and contribute to global action to
The surge in new energy technology is being supported by the
combat climate change.
investment community. By 2030, “green investment” has simply
become “investment” as investors and shareholders prioritise
ESG agendas. The consumer of 2030 has no time for companies
that are not meeting net-zero objectives. Those industries not
contributing to greater sustainability and the hard to abate sectors
not cleaning up faster, are under immense consumer and investor
pressure to do so; otherwise, they will have become uninvestable
and uninsurable. They are already suffering from reputational
damage and are losing the trust of both their customers and
employees. Legal actions regarding the impacts of climate change
are now common following several landmark cases in the early
2020’s; governments and companies must now legally protect the
younger generation from the impact of climate change and not
expand fossil fuel use.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 15

What seemed like

a major task in
the early 2020s
is today seen as a
common purpose.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 16

“T he journey of
‘decentralisation,
decarbonisation,
and digitalisation’
that the electricity
network went
through years
ago has now
transformed the
gas system.”
BEN WILSON
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
AUSTRALIAN GAS
INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 17

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 18

As we build the hydrogen ecosystem, Energy storage plays a critical role in

both blue hydrogen and green making renewable energy more reliable
Alan Yu hydrogen are playing important roles
to reduce carbon. Traditionally, the
and affordable. Green energy storage
is not limited to only one solution and
most common form of hydrogen hydrogen storage has become very much
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER has been grey hydrogen, which part of the mix. While the most common
form of renewable energy storage relies
LAVO is produced from fossil fuels,
on lithium batteries, which support the
predominantly gas. Over the past
intermittency of solar and wind power
decade, there has been growth in
generation, they have limitations. Key to
both blue hydrogen - produced from
these limits are the lifespan and duration
fossil fuels, however the carbon is
of the batteries, their performance
captured - and green hydrogen - which degradation over time and end of life
uses renewable electricity like wind disposal. Hydrogen, however, can provide
or solar to power the electrolysis. significant storage volume without
Blue hydrogen had traditionally been compromising or deteriorating energy over

“For any sort of new cheaper than green hydrogen but

today in 2030, green has become
time, increasing its cost competitiveness
when combined with lithium batteries.
energy ecosystem much more cost competitive - not
only due to cheaper renewable power
or hydrogen used in the electrolysis, but also cost
economy, we need reductions in key components like the
electrolysers and fuel cells.
both blue and green
hydrogen..”
©2021 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English company
limited by guarantee. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are trademarks used under license by the independent member firms of the KPMG global organisation.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 19

Emission-free mobility today combines Companies could not achieve these

both electric and hydrogen powered stricter decarbonisation targets alone and Alan Yu is the Co-founder
vehicles - both have important roles in partnerships have been key to their success and Chief Investment Officer
this transition. While electric vehicles - accelerating the decarbonisation journey of Providence Asset Group,
have dominated the evolution of the and allowing the hydrogen economy to an Australian leading ESG
greener mobility market up to 2030, take off. The 2030 net zero target required investment firm and the
hydrogen is now catching up. It has all stakeholders in the energy value chain Chief Executive Officer of
several advantages - real potential to work faster and more collaboratively LAVO. Prior to founding the
for the hard-to-abate heavy transport and companies have not only started Providence Asset Group,
sectors such as trucking and shipping working with the big energy companies, Alan held executive roles
where electric solutions are less viable - but public and private companies are now at the Commonwealth
as well faster charge times. working more closely together. Bank of Australia and the
Westpac Group.
Also, hydrogen powered bikes and Our company, LAVO, had already
cargo bikes1 are playing a crucial role in incorporated ESG principles as In 2018, Alan co-founded YOZO,
developing emission free transportation. part of our investment and product an Australian Fintech small
With trucks increasingly being banned development mandate. Today, we are business lending company.
from city centres all over the world, looking to take the ESG framework to the And in the past 4 years, Alan
hydrogen cargo bikes are the future of next level - a hydrogen circular economy. has founded and invested
the online delivery market. A cargo bike - in a series of clean tech
We want a future where people develop companies, demonstrating
used for much longer distance deliveries
energy assets not only looking at the his strong commitment
such as food or parcel delivery - it can
carbon footprint, but also at areas like
even use its hydrogen fuel cell as a heater towards sustainability and
the availability of critical materials and
or a fridge to keep the food or items being circular economy.
water consumption.
delivered, warm or cold.
Alan has executed complex
New technologies such as the Internet transactions across broad
This new hydrogen economy has created
of Things and artificial intelligence are industry segments with
its own energy ecosystem for Australia
also critical. LAVO is now developing specialised investment expertise
and accelerated its journey toward net
new software and centralised control in technology, innovation and
zero. Australia is always well positioned
systems which can incorporate these renewable energy assets. He has
to capitalise on the hydrogen economy
digital technologies. Our integrated portal proven experience in assisting
as it has unique and rich resources -
now allows us to both work with many companies with their growth
sunshine, wind, an abundance of land
more stakeholders while optimising our
and minerals - enabling it to become a strategies through capital
decision-making processes. Earlier this
hydrogen superpower country. We are raising, trade acquisitions and
decade, the COVID-19 crisis became
now exploring the opportunity to export pre-IPO processes.
an opportunity to accelerate digital
hydrogen to the rest of the world. This
transformation; today the energy transition
progress needs to be facilitated by Australia
is another. Blue hydrogen, green hydrogen
implementing a federal, long term energy
- regardless of the colour, the future is
transition strategy encompassing very
certainly becoming a lot brighter.
transparent emissions reduction targets
- this is critical for the hydrogen sector as
it provides investors with clear direction
about the investment environment.

1 A cargo bike is designed for carrying heavy or bulky loads, or several passengers, including children. They can come in either two-wheeled, three-wheeled, or four-
wheeled form, with or without e-assistance or powered by hydrogen fuel cells.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 20

Alba Ruiz Leon

MANAGING DIRECTOR
CORNWALL INSIGHT

“Regulation is still
playing catch up with
the energy transition.”

WHAT IS THE ENERGY MIX IN 2030 IN renewable energy zones to replace fossil
AUSTRALIA, AND HOW DOES THIS COMPARE TO fuel power plants. Hydrogen has also
WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED NINE YEARS AGO? made progress, and its development
continues to attract significant interest
Back in 2021, the energy transition
from both industry and government.
saw renewables taking over from gas
and coal-fired power plants. However,
there was still a need to build out the HOW HAS THE AUSTRALIAN ENERGY SECTOR
network - and by that, I mean connecting TRANSITIONED TOWARDS NET-ZERO CARBON
the renewable energy sources now EMISSIONS WHILE MAINTAINING SYSTEM
distributed across the country to where STRENGTH, RELIABILITY, AND FLEXIBILITY?
the demand is located. Today in 2030, we Australia accelerated its energy
have made good progress in some areas transition by creating a more coordinated
like pumped hydro schemes, battery environment. This has facilitated
storage, grid performing inverters which partnerships between governments,
have stabilised and firmed up supply regulators and energy providers and
improving system strength and network incentivised new entrants, which has
security. But the energy network still led to a more diverse range of energy
lacks sufficient capacity in certain areas. resource schemes and help foster a
We need to create more integrated healthy and competitive energy market.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 21

As a result, each eastern coast state and purchase agreements for renewable This has been an important step towards
territory in Australia has achieved their assets, which has supported the green integrating small scale and behind meter
2030 renewable target of around 50% transition at a grid level. resources, which in aggregate is the
renewables energy generation or more. largest “generator” in the market.
Distributed energy resources (DER)
It has not been an easy journey. We integration is part of the new age Not to forget that data has also benefited
started an energy transition without the solution. We need to raise consumer consumers to become more self-aware;
right policies and regulatory framework in awareness of what is necessary to they now know when it’s more cost-
place. The federal government needed to make the power market work more effective to run their appliances, and so
be more involved much earlier and align efficiently, reliably and cheaply. they can now manage their energy use
with the state targets and progress. The This includes reducing the cost of more efficiently. Like investors, they just
lack of coordinated government policies
consumer participation in the wider needed the right tools and environment to
has undermined the confidence of some
market, simplifying the complexity unlock the potential of renewable energy.
private sector investors during the early
of compliance, and making it easier
2020s. As a result, we have seen some
for them to participate more actively
investment drifting away from Australia
in day-to-day market operations. For Alba Ruiz Leon holds the
due to the lack of early federal direction,
example, back in 2021, several trials responsibility of Cornwall
and the market complexities of adding
renewables to the grid. were already underway by some Insight’s Australian business,
utilities to capture the vast potential of supporting the company’s
Paradoxically, Australia underwent the distributed consumer solar resources growth in Australia since
renewable energy transition faster than through a ‘Virtual Power Plant’. These January 2020. Alba has over
most other countries. However, the trials showed that utilities could 15 years of energy market
system and the policies that govern it manage minimum demand conditions experience, including more than
were still trying to catch up during early by increasing supply nearly 5 MW by 12 years of practical exposure in
2020. During these early days, whilst in using such aggregated DER1. the APAC region.
the midst of the energy transition, we
saw system strength issues, networks Alba’s recent experience
upgrades and battery storage be rushed WHAT HAVE BEEN THE BIGGEST DEVELOPMENTS includes projects such as
up, synchronous condensers installed IN ENERGY SECTOR FROM A DATA PERSPECTIVE constructing and operating the
to mitigate system strength and inertia OVER THE PAST DECADE TO 2030?
largest Australian solar farm
shortfall, negative pricing, marginal loss Large corporations use the energy 2018-19, Limondale 349 MWp
factors (MLF) worsening up, etc. Of market data and insights to assess risks in NSW, liaising with the EPC
course, the rush of decommissioning old and opportunities better and distinguish and O&M groups as well as
and obsolete power stations, mostly in where to invest. For example, these other suppliers. Other career
Victoria (VIC), New South Wales (NSW) days, you would not commit to a large- milestones include managing
and Queensland (QLD), had to accelerate
scale project without using 30 years the operations, maintenance
this change and uptake of quick solutions
good Power Curve Forecast Model and production teams for
within just a decade.
for the life of the plant where you can ACCIONA oversighting the
quickly identify both; total revenue over largest wind farm in the
WHAT ROLE HAS THE CONSUMER PLAYED the life cycle and return of investment. southern hemisphere, at the
IN THIS ENERGY TRANSITION? Cornwall Insight Australia has these time, as well as support building
The consumer wants cheaper and tools and we use them to do project and operating other large wind
greener energy. Over the past few due diligence for our clients. farms in NSW and SA.
decades, this has driven significant Data gathering has also helped smaller
uptake in rooftop PV and the rise of DER resources into the virtual power
distributed battery use. This preference plants as it allows them to participate
towards renewables has also led in the central dispatch process directly.
to many businesses signing power

1 DER – generally defined as distributed energy resources, which comes from small-scale units of local generation, typically rooftop solar or small wind turbines
connected to the grid at the distribution level.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 22

Over the last decade, there has been This transformation has been facilitated
a major shift in capital allocation from by clean technology start-ups. Some
Alexandra fossil fuels to green energy, whether
it’s renewables, energy efficiency or
have been scaling their technologies and
are taking the place of the incumbents
Clunies-Ross energy storage – all investments now
have a green element to them. The first
that have stood still over the last decade.
Others have formed partnerships with
point to note is that in 2030 we are no the incumbents who wanted to change
PORTFOLIO MANAGER and generate new business lines.
longer calling investments “green”, we
ARTESIAN just call them "investments". There are The rest have simply been acquired
by incumbents.
no large-scale investors in pure fossil
fuels or in companies who are not As a result, new business models are
moving into carbon neutrality. emerging. I would highlight those around
hardware-as-a-service and decentralised
Not only are such investments larger,
energy software-as-a-service; they are
but we are seeing the importance
enabling the sharing of different types of
of investing in green research and
“Capital targets technology at an early stage, which
energy technologies to reduce wastage
and improve efficiency. Today in city
green energy... is enabling this global transition to
net zero emissions. So, now in 2030,
centres there is widespread sharing
in the electric vehicle ecosystem. So
not fossil fuels.” climate technology is one of the largest
investment trends for venture capital,
underneath large buildings, instead of
parking your own car, you might share
private equity and research.
an electric car and the means to charge
A major innovation in the energy market it; and it’s the same with electric bikes,
over this period has been in energy whose usage has continued to grow
storage to improve grid stability by through 2030. We are seeing the sharing
increasing the energy density and of large-scale battery systems, which has
reducing cost of batteries. This has created an energy system not controlled
enabled greater renewable energy use by one utility or retailer, but rather by the
and has facilitated a more distributed individual or the community.
and decentralised power system, as
Today, people are also better at
more households moved to solar and
embracing new energy technologies.
wind powered generation. We have
Back in 2020, due to COVID-19, we saw
had numerous storage developments
mass adoption of many new healthcare
including lithium-ion batteries, solid-
tools and technologies; now we are
state batteries and hydrogen to store
seeing something similar in energy,
excess renewable energy.
as consumers better understand the
The energy supply chain has been impact of climate change. As households
redrawn. Instead of manufacturing have become connected to their own
energy the way we once did - producing energy supply, they understand how
fossil fuels and then transporting them much energy they are using, when they
to the centres of demand - we now need to charge their battery and when
generate renewable energy on site, store it’s most efficient to deploy that energy.
it on site, and often use it on site, for Part of that understanding comes from
example to charge our electric vehicles a better breakdown of energy bills to
or to create steel. These more modular show them where the energy is coming
solutions for energy are a real innovation from and how much of it is renewable
and are proving to be a game changer for or from having their own energy system
heavy industry: for example, generating through solar on their roof and batteries.
hydrogen on site, rather than transporting Consumers have been more willing to
it from another location, is much cheaper. adapt to and adopt the “new” to ensure

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 23

Alexandra Clunies-Ross is
part of the Investment team
at Artesian, the most active
early-stage venture capital
fund in Australia, which now
manages +$400m. Alexandra
leads Artesian’s ClimateTech VC
investment activities and is a
Portfolio Manager for Artesian’s
Clean Energy Seed Fund.
Alexandra is a startup Board
member and a member of the
expert panel for the Cleantech
Group, which releases an
annual list of 50 climate
startups to watch. Prior to her
work at Artesian, Alexandra was
part of SkyNews’ digital team.
Alexandra has a Bachelor of
Commerce from USyd and
a Master of Business Law
from UNSW.

that they’re doing their part - they have In fact, I would say that over the last nine
more trust in technology. Now, we not years, it has been millennials who have
only have a greener and, in most cases, a really driven this shift. So, if a company
cheaper, energy system - but one which has not thought about the importance of
is decentralised and digitised as well. sustainability, then they’re at risk, not only
due to policy and regulatory changes but
All of this means that companies have because people will not buy their product.
had to rebalance their focus to address Many companies are now increasing
stakeholder management as consumers pressure on themselves and bringing
better understand their own energy their carbon neutral targets forward in
needs. The private sector has moved response to the demands from these
towards sustainability because their stakeholders. In summary, we still have
main stakeholder - the individual - has a long way to go to limit global warming,
demanded it. Companies with less but technology has enabled greater
green credentials have been left behind. use of renewable energy through cost
reduction and new innovations.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 24

Angus Taylor
MINISTER FOR ENERGY AND
EMISSIONS REDUCTION
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT

“Australia has led

the way in showing
the world that a
growing economy can
decarbonise...”

WHAT DOES THE AUSTRALIAN ENERGY gas) and green hydrogen (made from
LANDSCAPE LOOK LIKE IN 2030? electrolysis using renewable energy)
are allowing us to reduce emissions
Australia’s energy and natural in hard to abate sectors. As a platform
resources sectors have evolved technology, hydrogen’s impact is
and reduced emissions much widespread across multiple industries
faster than we expected a decade and sectors of the economy. Hydrogen
ago. The extraordinary uptake of is now feeding into many sectors
renewables, particularly household - transportation, industry, power
solar, towards the end of the 2010s, generation and agriculture - and using
has been matched by huge growth hydrogen vehicles is rapidly increasing
in the 2020s of a range of new low in these industries. Australia’s success
emissions energy technologies. in these sectors has all been driven by
Energy sources, like hydrogen, are a focus on the customer.
becoming more competitive with
existing technologies - driving down
emissions and producing affordable,
reliable energy. Both blue hydrogen
(produced from sequestered natural

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 25

WHAT HAS BEEN THE IMPACT OF THE Prior to entering politics in 2013 when he was elected as the Liberal Federal
ENERGY TRANSITION ON AUSTRALIA’S Member for Hume in New South Wales, The Hon. Angus Taylor MP was a
REGIONS AND CITIES? Director at Port Jackson Partners and a partner at McKinsey & Co.
Australia’s regions are thriving. Minister Taylor was promoted to Assistant Minister to the Prime Minister
Traditionally export focused areas like with special responsibility for Cities and Digital Transformation and
Gladstone, the Hunter, Latrobe Valleys, reappointed to the frontbench after the 2016 Federal election and became
the Whyalla, the Pilbara, the Northern Minister for Law Enforcement and Cyber Security.
Territory and northern Tasmania have
all continued to strengthen their export Minister Taylor was promoted to Cabinet as the Minister for Energy in
positions by expanding into new August 2018 and reappointed as the Minister for Energy and Emissions
opportunities like producing hydrogen Reduction in May 2019.
and low emissions metals. Australia is With a passion for cutting edge technology, Minister Taylor authored an
continuing to supply customer countries essay The Promise of Digital Government which was published by the
like Japan, Korea, Singapore and Vietnam Menzies Research Centre in 2016.
with reliable and affordable energy,
Minister Taylor has a Bachelor of Economics (First Class Honours and
resources and minerals products.
University Medal) and a Bachelor of Laws (Honours) from the University
The Australian agricultural sector has
of Sydney. He also has a Master of Philosophy in Economics from Oxford,
been a notable green energy success
where he studied as a Rhodes Scholar. His thesis was in the field of
story. Nitrogen fertiliser supports the food
competition policy.
industry - it feeds millions of people every
day - and much of it is now produced from
clean hydrogen, supporting the reduction
$2/kg goal is much nearer today in 2030.
of agricultural emissions. The energy IS AUSTRALIA THRIVING IN THE
transition has also resulted in significant Hydrogen has contributed to making INTERNATIONAL ENERGY INDUSTRY
changes in land management in many heavier industries in Australia both cleaner COMMUNITY IN 2030?
regions. Soil is an extraordinary carbon and more energy efficient.
Australia is leading the way in the energy
sink and making it a better one - through
In Australia’s cities and suburbs, transition because it knows how to do
healthier soil - is important. The lessons
household solar was already moving it - it has been a world leader for centuries
learnt in better soil management and the
at breakneck pace in previous decades in industries like agriculture and mining.
reduction of agricultural emissions means
and has continued to gain ground. Huge The developing and developed world
that today, Australian farmers are not
amounts of household solar have been needs new energy technologies to fully
only more productive, but the soil is more
added to the grid and additional storage decarbonise. What Australia is showing
effective at storing carbon, and Australia’s
from household batteries and electric the rest of the world is that you do
soils are, generally, much healthier.
vehicles, and improved regulation and not have to make trade-offs between
Hydrogen has long been a priority low digital technology, have provided for a economic growth and making industry
emissions technology for Australia - more balanced power network. In 2030, greener and more sustainable - you need
producing clean hydrogen under $2 per the energy network is a combination to find the right technologies to scale.
kilogram (kg) has been a stretch goal under of grid scale generation and storage, Australia today plays a unique global
its Low Emissions Technology Statement along with this more distributed power role in the development and export of
since the start of the decade. Battery generation. For them to work in harmony, new energy technologies, moving them
powered electric vehicles play a big role in recognition of the role of dispatchability towards being commercial, and making
cities, but hydrogen is the fuel being used in the electricity grid and the shift to products and services the world needs to
for long range transport and in trucks and a capacity mechanism was needed. reduce emissions without substantially
other heavy vehicles. Growing hydrogen Reforms in the early 2020’s made a big raising costs. Many new energy
consumption in heavy industry - the difference and achieved balance between technologies, such as hydrogen, stored
mining industry, for example, has been an intermittency and dispatchability, making carbon, carbon capture and storage,
early adopter of hydrogen fuel, as it was of the network not only more sustainable support Australia’s economy today - it has
greater automation - along with a fall in the but more reliable too. led the way in showing that a growing
cost of hydrogen production and ongoing economy can decarbonise.
technology improvements means the

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 26

Audrey Zibelman
VICE PRESIDENT
X, THE MOONSHOT FACTORY

Audrey Zibelman leads X’s

moonshot for the electric grid.
Her team is developing new
computational tools to enable
the rapid and cost effective
decarbonisation of the
electrical grid.

Audrey has spent over three

decades leading organisations
(having previously worked at "In this energy transition, the innovation has been
the Australian Energy Market
Operator, PJM, Xcel Energy, in consumer services as opposed to investment
founder and CEO of Viridity
Energy and was the Chair of
in supply...”
the New York Public Service
Commission) with the goal of
WHAT HAVE BEEN THE BIGGEST When we realised that we could use
making power cleaner, more
affordable and more reliable.
TRANSFORMATIONS TO THE ENERGY technology to better harness resources

She is an international expert in

SYSTEM OVER THE PAST DECADE? like electric vehicles (EVs), batteries
and internet-connected appliances to
power system transformation, The biggest change has been in the
optimise the grid, it opened the door
regulation, markets and use of technology at more affordable
for industry innovators. They have since
operations. She’s also been a costs to make the whole energy system
been able to seize the opportunity to
utility executive, regulator, system much more efficient, which has enabled
create greater system automation,
operator and entrepreneur. a more cost-effective decarbonisation
allowing more precise decision making
of the grid. A decade ago, the grid was
When she’s not working, she’s and widespread efficiencies.
dominated by large scale resources and
hiking the hills of San Francisco,
demand was static - the most efficient Today the grid operates with large-scale
playing tennis with her husband
utilities were meeting large volumes power systems and billions of devices,
Bruce, or spending time with
of predictable industrial demand. As like EV’s or HVAC, which connect to it
their children and grandchildren.
we retired older units and replaced through inverters. Using technologies
them with wind and solar generation, like the cloud, artificial intelligence and
and more and more batteries, electric machine learning, we have been able to
vehicles and other forms of longer put more automation in, building system
duration storage come online, the efficiency and predictability. Now, we are
system not only became more not only paying less for our renewable
distributed but also less predictable. energy resources supplying our

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 27

electricity, but utility service providers In 2030, like in 2021, the market still interest in product standards. This allows
– through the consensual management has incumbent utilities with access new energy products and services to
of devices such as charging EVs during to customers and other assets in a plug and play more easily, allowing more
the night, when wind is available, strong place, but the survivors have rapid innovation, driving down costs for
and demand is low – can manage reinvented themselves into true service the consumer.
that demand much more efficiently. companies, building on strong customer
As a result, innovation has been information and existing relationships.
These companies drove greater efficiency
WHAT CULTURAL CHANGES DO YOU THINK
more services focused – supporting ENERGY MARKET PARTICIPANTS NEED TO
consumers to maximise demand in the grid and had the advantage of
implementing storage at scale. Up to now,
EMPLOY TO BE ABLE TO DEAL WITH THIS
patterns for the best cost and efficiency PERIOD OF RAPID CHANGE?
this has worked as the best business
gains - rather than supply side focused.
model from the consumer perspective, In the past, policy and compensation
This network autonomy, automation,
but this is in the process of changing. incentives have constructed the energy
and ability to remotely manage devices
For example, with customer information industry to be one with a lot of long-
means the energy system has become
becoming more ubiquitous, we are seeing lived technologies, generally meaning it
more intelligent.
consumer retailers or other new entrants does not prioritise the implementation
This intelligence gives us more challenging for market share. of new technology or new design
confidence to solve further inefficiencies considerations well and is often dealing
right at the system edge. Without it, any HOW IMPORTANT HAS TECHNOLOGY BEEN with legacy system issues. By 2030,
decarbonisation of the grid would never IN DEVELOPING THE NEW ENERGY SYSTEM energy companies and utilities have
have worked as well as it does today. IN 2030? developed a better willingness and
Technology has been fundamental to ability to take on greater technology
WHAT DOES THE 2030 ENERGY MARKET market development during this energy risk. They have alleviated some of this
LOOK LIKE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF transition. It has transformed our ability risk by developing deeper technology
ENERGY INCUMBENTS AND OTHER SERVICE to forecast demand changes and predict partnerships and collaborations - so they
PROVIDERS? system disruptions. Even in the last do no longer need to go it alone. We’ve
decade, we were at the point where seen the success of this approach in
We imagine a world and are now other sectors, particularly the airline and
power systems could be virtualised
advancing one where, IT, AI and machine
and we were creating digital twins. financial services industries.
learning have transformed the operating
environment such that all players have Since then, the power of simulation
Energy regulators too, have become
access to the full system operating technology has allowed us to better
more comfortable with risk and allowed
information in real-time. anticipate events and resolve them
for more R&D experimentation. This is
- creating a single source of truth for
We are still seeing experimentation in a period of great change in our energy
decision making.
how to make this market perform best. system, and it means that a lot of things
We have not yet resolved whether the As our natural resources like wind and will not work out the way people might
network and gentailers are best placed solar are dependent on the weather, anticipate; allowing time for learning and
to move into other services, building on and became our dominant source of sharing and not penalising companies
their incumbent position operating the power generation, climate change for failures is important.
system, or a whole range of aggregators and cloud cover became central to
have effectively provided the full range But perhaps the biggest change has
managing its complexity, technology
of energy services. been with policy makers. In 2030 energy
has allowed us to not only run the
and climate policy is no longer a cultural
This market won’t automatically system more efficiently but forecast its
or tribal signifier, so it has become less
emerge. Markets are ineffective at behaviour more accurately. It’s been a
political with everyone rowing in the
this kind of transformation because of massive game changer – we're able to
same direction for a decarbonised,
all the uncertainties and the difficult understand the nature of the issue, have
efficient, reliable, and cost-effective
risk/ reward trade-offs. In a future innovators help solve it, while being
energy system. This has allowed policy
world where it is understood how this very comfortable that we are making
new operating environment works, to focus much more on problem solving
strategic operational decisions.
companies can start layering services for the issues thrown up by the rapid
on top of existing offerings, rather than As energy technology becomes more energy transformation which is now
moving straight to new markets. fast paced and interoperable, Australian proceeding at pace.
policy makers have had to take a new

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 28

Ben Wilson
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
AUSTRALIAN GAS
INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP

Ben Wilson is Chief Executive

Officer of Australian Gas
Infrastructure Group (AGIG),
which comprises Dampier
Bunbury Pipeline, Multinet Gas,
and Australian Gas Networks.
With a growing portfolio of
operations, AGIG is one of “In 2030, the gas system operates more like power –
Australia’s largest energy
infrastructure businesses. AGIG decentralised, decarbonised, and digitalised.”
has over two million customers
across every Australian mainland
state and the Northern Territory. the network which produce methane,
AGIG operates Australia’s largest
LOOKING BACK AS WE ARE NOW IN 2030,
HOW HAS THE AUSTRALIA GAS INDUSTRY hydrogen, and biogas blends.
renewable gas production facility,
Hydrogen Park South Australia,
AND NETWORK CHANGED? Finally, the industry has had to revaluate
blending green hydrogen into The natural gas industry in Australia has its customer proposition and become
part of the gas distribution undergone a major transition, with three smarter. As cheaper, more renewable
network in Adelaide. major changes. energy choices grew, it had to consider a
Ben is the Chair of Energy range of factors - the price proposition?
Firstly, it has experienced a the customer service proposition? the
Networks Australia, former Chair
decarbonisation journey which is still environmental proposition?
of the ENA Gas Committee from
underway. Today all our gas networks
2015-2020, and a Member of the
and pipelines are delivering a mixture The journey of “decentralisation,
Ministerial Advisory Panel for the
of natural gas and renewable gases, decarbonisation, and digitalisation” that
Federal Government’s Technology
such as hydrogen and biogas. The the electricity network went through
Investment Roadmap.
traditional natural gas industry is mostly years ago has now transformed the gas
Ben has a Bachelors Degree in producing gas with carbon capture and system.
Natural Science from Cambridge sequestration (a journey which started
University in the UK.
with capturing associated CO2 at the WHAT ARE THE FEATURES OF THIS MORE
Gorgon LNG project1), or producing DISTRIBUTED MODEL FOR NATURAL GAS?
blue hydrogen with CO2 by-product
captured and stored. The transition has required significant
operational changes. Previously, the gas
Secondly it has gone from being a and power systems in Australia were not
system which was primarily centralised directly linked but now the two systems
to one which is more distributed. We are much more intertwined through
are now seeing distinct pockets of the growth of distributed electrolysers2

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 29

which produce hydrogen. They sit in we have more of a cohesive vision with the natural gas network wasn’t so smart,
the middle of the gas and electricity this linkage between the gas and the it was more mechanical3.
networks, connecting and playing electricity grids as the gas grid acts as
off each other. a storage and a firming agent for the But this also meant it was difficult to hack;
power grid - a giant battery. it might have been a dumb network, but it
So, if the renewable supply is in was a safer network. Today we are more
surplus these electrolysers soak up Transportation has also facilitated the aware of the pros and cons of being smart
the excess demand on the grid by drive to a more integrated energy vision. including some of the risks like cyber
producing hydrogen which can then be Back in 2021, transportation was largely threats.
stored as energy in the network, and independent from both the electricity
then used like utility scale batteries, and the gas grid. Today, most new WHAT ABOUT COSTS – HAS HYDROGEN BEEN
providing system strength and peaking vehicles being sold are either battery ABLE TO COMPETE IN THE LOW CARBON
support for the grid during times of electric vehicles (EVs) or fuel cell EVs ENERGY MARKET?
variable demand. If renewable supply is running off hydrogen. These battery EVs
interrupted (when it gets cloudy or it is are also supporting storage in the grid. Today the price of hydrogen is similar
less windy) then the electrolysers can to the price of wholesale gas; it has
quickly be turned off, providing valuable decreased due to the creation of larger
SO, THE GAS NETWORK HAS BECOME and larger solar and wind projects
interruptible demand. DECARBONISED AND DECENTRALISED dedicated towards producing hydrogen.
– HOW HAS ITS DIGITISATION TRANSPIRED? Australia has commenced hydrogen
AS THESE SYSTEMS BECOME MORE Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine exports to Asia and reservation policies
CONNECTED, DO YOU THINK WE NEEDED A learning have optimised network are being introduced to ensure that
MORE COMPREHENSIVE “ENERGY” VISION operations. Back in 2021, the electricity there is sufficient domestic supply of
AS OPPOSED JUST A “GAS VISION” AND AN market knew much more about its hydrogen and renewable electricity.
“ELECTRICITY VISION”?
customer energy behaviours than gas Hydrogen electrolysers and storage
There is a well-known saying that the companies did due to the growth of are sized to take advantage of cheaper
future is already here, it is just unevenly smart meters. This has now changed, and electricity costs, so its production is
distributed. Gas companies have had we are seeing smart meter use in the more cost effective.
to think more about being a system gas industry. The only thing the individual
operator like a power company. consumer is lacking is smart meter Also, we have seen the capital costs
This is much more complex; running a choice, as Australia is still a small market. of the electrolysers which produce the
real-time dynamic gas transmission and hydrogen come down. Electrolyser
distribution system. Digitisation has however come at some gigafactories were already being built
cost. Back in 2021 we thought that a decade ago, in places like the UK
Previously, storage solutions for the everything smart was good, that there and Italy4. Back then, we were on the
gas and power systems were not able were certain things you couldn’t get to, upward slope of decarbonisation - today
to support more renewable energy such as cost reduction or better customer we’ve finally reached the plateau.
delivery at a larger scale. Now in 2030, service, without being smart. Back then,

1 Chevron’s Gorgon LNG project in Western Australia was one of the first natural gas (LNG) projects to capture carbon at scale. Carbon Capture and Sequestration
(CCS) is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emission from the Gorgon Project by approximately 40%, or more than 100 million tonnes over the life of the injection
project.

2 An electrolyser is a device which splits water into hydrogen and oxygen using electrical energy, providing a practical way to generate a zero-carbon energy source.

3 Gas networks in 2021 were mainly operated mainly by mechanical regulators which responded to changes in pressure.

4 In 2021, ITM Power announced the construction of the largest electrolyser manufacturing facility in the world, in the UK, to provide an integrated hydrogen
energy solution to use renewable energy that would otherwise be wasted. In 2019, the company Enapter opened a serial fabrication facility for modular hydrogen
electrolysers in Italy, reducing manufacturing costs by 20% and increases production capacity eightfold for more affordable hydrogen generation.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 30

Brian Janous is responsible for leading the development and execution

Brian Janous of Microsoft’s global data centre energy strategy. His responsibilities
include oversight of energy policy, procurement, renewable energy,
distributed generation, and overall environmental impact to ensure that
GENERAL MANAGER OF Microsoft’s cloud infrastructure is reliable and sustainable.

ENERGY & RENEWABLES Brian joined Microsoft in 2011 after 12 years in the energy industry where
he worked as a Sr. Consultant at Brubaker & Associates, assisting Fortune
MICROSOFT 500 companies with energy procurement, policy and sustainability
matters. Brian has also served on the board of the American Wind Energy
Association (now the American Clean Power Association), and presently
serves on the board of the Institute for Energy Studies at Western
Washington University.

BACK IN 2020, MICROSOFT, MADE A PLEDGE 2050, we were making commitments

TO BECOME CARBON NEGATIVE BY 2030 that were a decade or two ahead.
- HAVE YOU MET THAT TARGET AND WHAT
"The more intelligence HAPPENED FOR YOU TO ACHIEVE IT? Our company’s pledge triggered a wave
of people within Microsoft who leaned
we can build into the We not only met the target, but we
met it faster than we thought, and
in on the issue. We extended the scope

energy system, the more more importantly, helped others along

to include not only electricity and direct
emissions, but our entire supply chain
resilient it becomes.” the way to achieve similar goals. We
made a commitment by setting a
- from software design to procuring
components for our data centres. We
bold vision - clarifying it and making it met the target initially by leveraging
both measurable and close enough to what we already had, largely low-cost
force immediate action. And to ensure wind and solar, and accelerating what
impact beyond our own operations, we knew worked. We executed almost
we launched the Microsoft Cloud for six Gigawatts of net new renewables in
Sustainability that was designed to help only the first year. We also established
companies measure, understand and a billion-dollar Climate Innovation Fund
take charge of their carbon emissions, which has continued to grow over the
set sustainability goals and take last decade. In this case, what helped
measurable action. Microsoft’s other was that the renewable energy market
leaders and I all accepted personal is far more distributed - so you can
responsibility for meeting the zero- be a smaller company and still bring
carbon goal; we knew that we could innovation. Today, innovation scales
still be around in 2030 to see if it had faster and is easier to do than when the
worked, to witness the achievement, market was dominated by fossil fuels.
and here we are.
Going forward, we know we will run
In the years leading to 2020, there was into challenges - particularly with
a massive shift in the business world intermittency issues from all the zero
regarding zero carbon commitments. carbon resources we're putting on the
Before then, few companies had given grid. These resources must be more
much attention to the subject, but it soon balanced and better integrated - this
became a core priority, and this resulted requires new software, more intelligent
in a tidal wave of companies making grid operations, greater volumes
similar commitments. These pledges of storage and new technologies.
continued to outpace regulations - as Fortunately, we invested early in start-up
governments were focused on 2040 or companies to develop some of these

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 31

and servers - which weren’t optimised or

running on clean energy. As our zero-
carbon commitment was not only for
electricity, but also for things like cement
and steel that go into the construction
of a data centre, we have been able to
achieve more productive and less carbon
intense data centres. It means that -
despite global power demand continuing
to increase - generally, overall data centre
power demand has not.

IN WHAT WAYS ARE ’BIG TECH’ COMPANIES

LIKE MICROSOFT SUPPORTING THIS NEW
ENERGY SYSTEM IN 2030?
We're about enabling the success
of all companies and individuals, and
we think about electricity, the cloud,
artificial intelligence and quantum
computing in the same way. They are
utilities and we want to create a level
playing field around them that allows
others to come in, innovate and drive
efficiencies - be it in transportation,
food production or medicine. No one
goes to the doctor and thinks I'm
technologies we knew would be crucial the grid, what was being dispatched,
thankful for Microsoft, but we are
for the success of this next stage of what resources were available. Today,
working with the backbone of these
energy transition. with the creation of deep models of
different industry systems - which are
grid operations, we're able to better
often very complex - so they become
WHAT KINDS OF INNOVATIONS HAVE measure energy supply and demand
intelligent. It means they operate more
YOU DEVELOPED AS PART OF YOUR NET across the grid, not just when it
productively; with precision, and their
ZERO MISSION? dispatches, but also where it should be
optimisation can facilitate, in medicine,
best located for the fewest emissions.
We needed to become more intelligent for example, a much better decision
It means we can better orchestrate and
in terms of how we operate. Through making and diagnoses process.
optimise across our entire operation.
new hardware, technology and software
The great thing about more intelligent
we've accomplished, for example,
longer duration storage. In 2020, we
WITH ENERGY DEMAND GROWING FROM systems is that they are also more
didn't have a battery that could run cost
CLOUD SERVICES, WHAT STEPS HAVE resilient. If you orchestrate everything
effectively for 150 hours; it was probably
MICROSOFT TAKEN TO ENSURE A RELIABLE well together it also becomes safer and
more like two to four hours. To help
ENERGY SUPPLY WHILE REDUCING more secure - even if individual devices
EMISSIONS FROM SUCH SERVICES? fail, the whole system does not as it isn't
to balance grid operations for longer
There used to be a real fear that the dependent on just one device. So, in a
durations when we lacked wind and
cloud would just gobble up all the world's power grid, for example, now that we
solar generation, we have developed
electricity. It hasn’t happened, primarily understand the systems better, we can
better batteries.
because we've been able to leverage prevent cyber-attacks, as we can isolate
We have also created a smarter grid. the infrastructure which supplies the different parts of the grid. If you are
A decade ago, there was a lot of talk data much more efficiently. Previously, concerned about a particular power plant
about smart grids, but really there workloads deployed in the cloud staying online, then you just don't have a
was nothing smart about them. We were migrating from far less efficient resilient system.
couldn’t see what was happening on environments - enterprise data centres

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 32

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 33

“I n 2030, we are

leading the energy
transition by
driving different
thinking and
innovation, and by
listening to what
our customers
need and want
from us.”
JOANNE FOX
ENERGY EXECUTIVE, PEOPLE &
CULTURE
AGL

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 34

Chris McGrath
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
5B AUSTRALIA

“The solar tipping

point - we just had to
turn up the dial...”

In 2030, we are celebrating the Solar’s success has been driven by

incredible success of solar energy. the obvious opportunity. Back in 2021
Its growth has surprised everyone. we already knew that we had the
Solar PV1 is not only the lowest cost technology required to do what we
form of new electricity generation but needed to do - we just had to get it out
is now, by far, the cheapest energy there at scale. There was no shortage of
source. It has transformed the energy land, of solar irradiance, of sand to refine
sector through its massive uptake. into silicon for the solar arrays.

All that was needed was pure

industrialisation to further deploy and
integrate solar into our energy system.
The role of energy storage in solar
generation has also been significant
and is integrated into almost every
solar system you see.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 35

The tipping point for this mass uptake The geopolitics of the solar industry
of solar was cost. The solar sector has also changed - and this was largely Chris McGrath’s strong focus
quickly evolved from being a project supply chain driven. Back in 2021, 90% on developing cutting-edge
by project, custom engineered, of the world’s solar modules came from technology that reduces the cost
power station type industry to mass China. Now, there is a more balanced of renewable energy led to the
industrialisation through factories and integrated supply chain as opposed start-up of 5B which has since
dotted around the world and located to one that’s overly saturated in certain grown to a global organisation,
in places that are most efficient for locations. Greater levels of automation based on award-winning
them to scale and produce ultra-low- have meant that solar production is no technology. 5B has reinvented
cost outcomes. longer concentrated in those countries the solar supply chain to
with lower cost labour. simplify how projects are
One such place is Australia. Here, solar has delivered, with fewer materials,
helped to tip the energy balance and today The only remaining constraint for the lightning-fast deployment and
green energy is the driving force behind solar industry is how to best maximise streamlined logistics.
the economy. The country has gone from this infinite amount of low cost, clean
After graduating with 1st class
being a net exporter of dirty fossil fuels power for use further downstream.
honours in Renewable Energy
and a net importer of oil for transportation We have seen an almost complete
Engineering, Chris designed and
to sustaining its own energy supply. transformation of transportation
installed a micro-hydropower
Australia also exports many minerals to electric over the last ten years.
system for a remote Vanuatu
needed for renewable energy, supporting The grid is now almost 100 percent
village, founded ‘Solar Fields’
net zero goals all over the world. clean electricity. Even big industries
and worked at Infigen Energy as
like aluminium smelting and steel
Where we have seen mass uptake of Development Manager, before
production are using green electricity
solar, it has been facilitated by digitisation. co-founding 5B.
and increasing hydrogen production
You can now buy solar farms online in the to support this trend. Chris is an avid explorer of the
way people used to buy books. Digital
natural world, a tech diver, a
has facilitated how solar projects are However, renewable energy use in
rock climber and enjoys a good
financed and approved and how councils, certain sectors is still a challenge.
adventure with great friends.
government and utilities interact with The aviation industry, for example,
those projects. Previously it was a slow, has seen some traction with different
bespoke exercise to buy and procure pathways to electro-fuels made
solar power - it would take months, if from clean electricity or hydrogen,
not years of buying cycles. Technology meaning battery-based aviation is
did not have to drive the transformation more prevalent. But it does not quite
that’s occurred; it was simply a matter solve for everything: while deployment
of turning up the dial to maximum and has been cracked, the downstream
mobilising the industry behind the task at integration side of the equation remains
hand. Today, the ability to buy and deploy a challenge - that’s the next frontier.
solar power - and the whole ecosystem
and platforms to support this - have been
built around technology.

1 Solar PV or Photovoltaics is the direct conversion of light primarily from sunshine into electric power using semiconducting materials such as silicon.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 36

Chris Reed
MANAGING DIRECTOR
NEOMETALS

“Using Lithium, we have

stored enough energy
in a small space to
transform mobility.”

The element lithium is essentially a

portable energy enabler - once you’ve
got a portable store of electricity,
you can then use energy much more
efficiently. Lithium is the lightest,
most reactive element in the periodic
table - it was lithium batteries which
enabled mobile phones to become
irreplaceable - it enabled the energy
they stored to be placed in a compact
space and now it is doing the same for
mobility. At the start of last decade,
we saw every major car company
commence investing in Electric
Vehicles (EVs) and today, the internal
combustion engine represents the
minority in new fleets. This fleet
transformation accelerated as battery
ranges improved - a typical range
is now supported by around 75
kilowatt hours of storage capacity per
car, capable of running an average
household for a couple of days.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 37

Lithium is enabling an energy using the batteries as part of the Innovation in the operating and the
revolution. You combine that battery strengthening mechanism for the frame safety systems, utilising things like
power with renewable energy, and you of the car and because the battery Bluetooth, wireless and satellite, has
become your own generator; you’ve is utilised in this way, it also means made us all super connected and safer.
decentralised the power grid so you can that EV’s are safer to drive in terms Services provided by NRMA, RAV etc.
harvest sunlight during the day, store it, of impact. The industry had to take just aren’t required for anything more
and use it for mobility when you need some pain because we needed to get than flat tires now. The ability to not have
to. A key development this decade in batteries into cars - they needed to last to own a car but to summon a car on
this area has been around households longer. Ultimately there was a massive demand is also fantastic.
selling excess decentralised power on net benefit; we’ve been able to lower
peak days to the utility generator which the pay-off from seven years down to Now, in 2030, we are recycling 100%
can be credited or given back to the two years on a carbon balance in EV’s of the world’s batteries to generate -
household during the night. versus internal combustion. 10% of what is needed to make new
batteries and it’s improving all the time.
In Australia, our primary energy mix New regulations have tightened the By 2040 or 2050 we should be close
is working well in terms of supporting requirements on what is mandatory to self-sufficiency. Our industry today
current EV adoption and EV architecture. recycling in many jurisdictions. There is much more mature about working
We can charge off our own domestic is more electronic waste recycling, collaboratively so everyone gets the
infrastructure with no problems for the more carbon efficient recycling, carbon value they want. Consumers not only get
grid operators or energy traders. labelling, regulated recoveries and a cost benefit - better value for money -
minimum use of recycled content. but also a sustainable benefit too.
Europe’s push towards climate change Stakeholders want to see more
mitigation can be seen as a lead indicator transparency on sustainability of
domestically. Widespread EV adoption companies and their supply chains.
and climate commitments have been Over the last decade, we have had Chris Reed started in the mining
slower in Australia. However, changes to fundamentally change how we’ve industry in 1990 and co-founded
in the market, particularly as they relate approached processing minerals and Reed Resources in 2001 (now
to technology raw materials, are being looking at it more holistically. What are Neometals Ltd). Chris holds a
felt strongly. Raw material demand and our tailings like? What are the least Bachelor of Commerce from
prices have gone up and reset the dial green processes? What and where are the University of Notre Dame
in our industry. It has changed from we emitting - we realised that you really and a Graduate Certificate
scrimping and saving - trying to maximise can’t manage what you can’t measure. in Mineral Economics from
recoveries - to investing in more WA School of Mines. He is a
environmentally sustainable processes, It was a big challenge though - the battery Member of the AusIMM and
acids, neutralising tailings and capturing minerals supply chain is very large and immediate past Vice-President
emissions. We’ve responded to what long - from mining lithium, nickel or of the Association of Mining &
the market wants, which is a much more cobalt in Australia or China to chemicals Exploration Companies.
carbon and environmentally conscious production in Europe or North America or
minerals processing industry. Asia. Neometals has been able to develop
a recycling process which basically
Previously, internal combustion engine enables you to regenerate those materials
vehicles had a far smaller carbon because they’ve already been mined and
footprint than electric cars during the used once. We can’t sell a product into the
production phase due to the materials supply chain today unless we know the
and minerals used to create the carbon footprint, because the car makers
chemicals for EV batteries. OEM’s must also declare it, as must the battery
were attempting to retrofit a lot of cell makers. The provenance of everything
their existing vehicle platforms but the in that car is verified in a digital certificate
battery packs were hard to access at right back to the point of origin testifying
end of life and recycle. Cars are now and attesting to its ethical, environmental
designed to be much easier to recycle and sustainability credentials. This is also
and batteries more easily replaced. The forcing minimum amounts of recycled
big EV car companies are, for example, product in the cars.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 38

Dan Adams
COFOUNDER AND CO-CEO
AMBER ELECTRIC

“Consumers have
embraced renewables
- they can reduce their
electricity bills while
supporting the energy
transition.”
Dan Adams is the Cofounder
and Co-CEO of Amber Electric.
Dan is focused on shifting
Australia to 100% renewable
energy in a way that creates
value for customers. Prior to
Amber, Dan worked for Tesla
where he developed the South
Australian Virtual Power Plant
and the Boston Consulting HOW HAS THE CONSUMER AFFECTED THE energy retailers they deal with or the type
Group where he advised PUSH FOR GREEN ENERGY OVER THE PAST of smart devices they purchase for their
electricity companies on the DECADE TO 2030? homes. This is particularly true regarding
future of energy. Dan was also the younger generation.
the Victorian Young Australian The consumer has played a critical role
of the Year for his work founding in driving the energy transition towards In Australia, government policy
the Make Poverty History renewables. As they became more continues to play catch up with the
concert in Australia. concerned about the environment consumer regarding the energy
and climate change, they sought out transition. In the early 2020’s, when
more sustainable solutions and this we reached a point of cost advantage
has been accelerated by the falling for renewables against more traditional
cost of distributed energy technology fuels like coal and gas, a rush of new
including solar, batteries and electric businesses appeared to be focusing on
vehicles. Today, consumers are also more securing more value for the consumer.
circumspect regarding the decisions they While some state government policies
make, for example, about what kinds of that came about in the early 2020’s

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 39

were fundamental in the uptake of WHAT IMPACT HAS TECHNOLOGY AND DATA IF YOU WERE A START-UP FOUNDER IN
large-scale renewables, it has been HAD ON THE ENERGY SECTOR OF 2030? 2030, WHERE DO YOU SEE THE GREATEST
this better value of renewable energy
The green transition is primarily enabled
OPPORTUNITY OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS
- cheaper power prices - which has - TO 2040 AND BEYOND?
by technology. It is not only about
facilitated the conversion of consumers
investment in large scale batteries, for Ten years ago, the energy start-up
to greener energy.
example, but is also being driven by landscape in Australia was nascent but
software and more intelligent use of it has evolved as new investors have
WHAT ARE THE DIFFERENT CONSIDERATIONS existing devices in the home. Giving come into the market. More capital is
CONSUMERS HAVE ABOUT THEIR ENERGY consumers the tools and technologies available that has allowed new start-
PROVIDER TODAY IN 2030? to shift their usage to those periods of ups to scale. Australia has been leading
Through Amber Electric we pioneered the day when cheaper renewables are the renewable transition globally,
a different electricity retail model in available has been an effective way of particularly in distributed energy through
Australia. We give consumers direct both integrating renewables into the rooftop solar and household batteries.
access to real-time wholesale electricity grid while making the market much It is the ideal test market to develop
prices, which incentivises them to use more flexible and resilient. Flexibility has the technologies of the new energy
cheaper renewable power when it’s always been valuable in the electricity future, like hydrogen, which can then
available. The traditional retail power market. Previously it was flexibility in be exported all around the world. This,
model was not doing this - consumers terms of large scale dispatchable coal combined with the growing availability
were always paying the same price, and gas generators, but today it’s to of capital, has accelerated the start-up
whether cheaper renewables were do with the control and automation of ecosystem in Australia. This innovation
available or not. They trust us to millions of devices in customers’ homes foundation continues to support
empower them to take advantage of - household batteries, electric vehicle other opportunities, for example, in
the cheapest market prices. chargers, electric hot water systems, air transferring our energy technology
conditioners and heaters. overseas. Amber and other smart device
In today’s market, companies like Amber companies have been using Australia as
have enabled consumers to be the The consumer is still in control - we just a technology training ground, improving
driving force in the renewable transition provide them with the tools to help them technology, and then licensing and
via millions of smart connected devices. use their devices more intelligently. selling that technology overseas.
We have enabled our customers to We allow customers to tell us the
move a major part of their energy constraints of how they want their The other big opportunity is in the
consumption to periods of the day devices used; we then automate and automation of smart devices in the
when power generation is primarily optimise within those boundaries. For home. This is helping to integrate
renewable and therefore cheaper; this example, we will enable a customer to renewables into the grid and new
has facilitated the closure of most coal plug in their electric vehicle at 8:00pm business models are being developed
fired power stations. The coordination, and tell the Amber App “I’d like my to enable it. Up to now, energy business
orchestration, and automation of all electric vehicle charged by 8:00am models were built around utilities trying
these devices searches out the most tomorrow morning”.The app will to match their retail book with more
value for customers and supports the automatically charge the car at 2:00am flexible supply. In the new world, the
transition to renewables. There are when, say, cheaper wind power is focus is all about the consumer – how
a wide range of smart devices out available, rather than at 8:00pm when can we help customers use the flexibility
there, so we also integrate with other power is perhaps being generated by of devices in their home to best access
technology companies to create a more expensive natural gas power renewable power when it’s available. To
seamless experience for customers. By stations. Of course, the consumer can be honest if a business hasn’t already
becoming a trusted partner and helping also override the algorithm and still realised that it’s probably too late.
customers navigate this complex world charge their car whenever they like.
of renewable energy, we help users
participate in and progress the energy
transition while reducing their own
electricity bills simultaneously - it’s a
win-win.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 40

AS AN ORGANISATION THAT REPRESENTS Accompanying this shift in government

ENERGY USERS – WHERE DO YOU SEE THE and business focus has been an attitude
Innes Willox MAJOR INDUSTRY CHANGES OVER THE
LAST DECADE?
change in society, not just around
sustainability, but also in the view of
energy technology. Because storage
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER For the past twenty years, energy
capability and capacity are now at
businesses generally have known they
the levels required to support further
AUSTRALIA INDUSTRY GROUP needed to change but it was complicated
technological change, it can support
(AI GROUP) by a lack of investment certainty in
stronger demand for energy technology
the sector. Over the past decade, a
- everyone wants and can now have the
growing government focus on climate
“Tesla” experience. So, while we’re not
change issues has pushed clean energy
yet at net zero in 2030, we’re far closer to
development, energy technology and
it than we were a decade ago.
reducing emissions to the forefront of
policy making.
WHAT DOES THIS ENERGY LANDSCAPE
Today, investment in the energy LOOK LIKE FOR INDUSTRY AND BUSINESSES
"The business transition sectors is growing - supported IN 2030?
conversation is by clear government guidelines and
regulations. The sheer pace of change
The individual energy user and smaller

fundamentally in energy technology development

has also been striking. There are more
businesses have driven the biggest
changes in the energy system so far; the
different to a decade electric vehicles, increased energy
transformation in heavy industry has yet
to come - but we should see this over this
ago - it’s not whether storage and the advancement of
hydrogen solutions - and all have driven
next decade to 2040. Most households
and smaller businesses are now at the
we go there but how a huge reduction in heavy industry
emissions in industries like agriculture,
point where the scale of renewable

we get there...” transportation and construction.

power generation and battery technology
is enabling energy consumption to be

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 41

more of an individual choice. Their power

WHAT IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR Innes Willox was appointed
generation is cheaper; there are more
BUSINESSES GOING FORWARD IN 2030 – IN Chief Executive of the Australian
choices of types of renewable generation
TERMS OF THE FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM? Industry Group in May 2012. He
and technologies, such as batteries, and
inverters are allowing them to better It has always been a challenge for joined Ai Group in 2008. Prior
manage and customise what they need industry and policy makers to move to joining Ai Group he worked
or don’t need. So rather than talking simultaneously in the same direction over as a diplomat, journalist and in
about people going off grid, we now talk any issue, and the energy transition is the private sector in Australia,
about more people being on grid. no different. The challenge for business Asia and the United States. He is
is to make sure that in considering those also Deputy Chair of Australian
For heavier energy consumers like steel, differences - and the speed and trajectory Super and Chairman of the
aluminium or car manufacturers, the pace with which they are being considered Migration Council of Australia.
of change has been slower. Despite their by different nations and states -
journey towards, for example, greener conversations remain harmonious and
steel or aluminium and advances in further tensions are not created. The
production processes, these sectors are worst of the climate wars are hopefully
still reliant on traditional energy supplies, behind us; the major political parties are
particularly natural gas. One of the biggest on board and, while there are elements
issues they’ve had to deal with to date that could go faster or things that
is improving their energy efficiency and could be done differently politically, the
trying to overturn long held processes and conversation is today a fundamentally
practices. These industries have also been different one to what it was a decade ago.
targeted by many countries who followed After a lot of work, there’s much better
the European Union, introducing carbon collaboration on the overall goals of the
border adjustment tariffs, which has new energy system.
put them under more pressure to adapt
their energy management to become Going forward, the energy focus of
greener faster. the business world is switching from
achieving net zero to becoming fully
If the pace of change is now picking carbon neutral or carbon positive
up in these hard to abate sectors. It - going beyond achieving net zero
is not only due to stricter regulations; carbon emissions and towards deeper
their customers are demanding more environmental benefits from energy
sustainable practices too. It means efficiencies and/or emission reductions.
that, in heavier industries, energy Even if we are still some way off this
consumption conversations have shifted target - for example, economies like
from the back to the front-office; today China are still stretching net zero targets
it’s at the top of all business agendas out to 2060 - much of the international
including at the Board and C suite level. community is, at least, fast tracking
It also means that any new business net zero goals. There is optimism we
needs to be net zero from the start. will eventually get to a carbon positive
situation - even if it is only around 2070.
The discussion now is not whether we go
there, it’s how we get there, and that is a
much better place to be.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 42

Jason Chang “Demand for the minerals required for the future is just massive -
and the world has underinvested in them so far...”
CO-FOUNDER AND CHIEF
EXECUTIVE OFFICER
The mining sector remains
EMR CAPITAL WHAT ROLE HAS MINING PLAYED IN THE
TRANSITION TOWARDS NET ZERO? underinvested, and the rate of
investment needs to be accelerated.
Mining has played a pivotal role in this Today more than 50% of the new
transition as the new energy system is vehicle fleet is electric - but a lot of
based on certain critical minerals and investment was needed in the mining
metals such as copper, cobalt, nickel, sector to get us here. Where there
lithium, as well as zinc and a few others. has been a rise in investment over the
Also, with a very clear motivation from last decade, a large portion has been
Jason Chang is the Co-Founder governments to decarbonise the energy driven by private capital. The appetite
and Chief Executive Officer of system, and momentum from net zero from investors for the opportunities
EMR Capital, a global mining targets signed by many countries and in mining during this energy transition
private equity firm with more companies, the mining industry is now has been large. It was replicated to a
than US$5bn of assets under underpinned by a new wave of demand certain extent in the public sector too,
management. EMR Capital and investment. Finally, the sector itself, but it has been private capital which has
currently owns and operates as a big consumer of energy, has made driven the change.
mines globally including mines immense strides in decarbonising and
in Australia, USA, UK, Spain becoming more energy efficient. Geopolitics is another big concern
and Zambia. as there are ongoing tensions and
Prior to EMR Capital, Jason heightened security risks everywhere.
WHAT ARE SOME OF THE CHALLENGES THE
So, it's a question of how we can
was Partner in Charge of KPMG MINING SECTOR HAS EXPERIENCED OVER
work better with the countries and
Australia’s Asia Practice which THE LAST DECADE?
focusses on investment and corporations we are doing business
Successfully exploring for and producing with. We wouldn't invest or operate
trade between Australia and
these critical minerals has become more in a country, for example, or a location
Asian economies in the energy
challenging. As the mining sector played where we weren't confident there was
and natural resources sector.
more of a central role in our energy appropriate regulation, policy or rule
Jason was President of the system, and supply chains have become of law. It will always be an issue - it’s
Australia China Business longer and more complex, supply and very difficult to find copper resources
Council’s Victorian Branch from demand patterns for key commodities in a mature country with good
2008 to 2015. are now more volatile. We are already infrastructure, so the questions will
seeing big supply constraints - demand always be - how do we do this better?
Jason graduated with a Masters
for copper, for example, has more than How do we collaborate better? How do
of Law and Bachelor of Laws
doubled over the past decade, and now we work with different governments
/ Economics from Monash
it's even more scarce. As the global so we can get access to resources in
University, Australia, and is
car fleet switches to electric, demand places which perhaps investors are
admitted as a Barrister and
for cobalt has also rapidly increased. not that familiar with? Newer markets
Solicitor of the Supreme Court
Though global demand is increasing, provide a lot of opportunities and we
of Victoria, Australia.
ore grades are decreasing, meaning still need to work better with them
these commodities are harder to extract, to meet the supply needs of this
increasing their cost of exploration and energy transition.
production. How we mine better, faster,
and more efficiently is arguably a bigger
challenge in 2030.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 43

WHAT HAS THE MINING SECTOR DONE OVER

THE PAST DECADE TO MITIGATE SOME OF
THESE CHALLENGES?
Capital flows best to those companies
demonstrating strong ESG principles
and best practice behaviours. Mining
regulations have tightened but
mining companies themselves were
already putting in place stronger ESG
procedures and mines are being run with
sustainability and community in mind.
For example, track and trace processes
are now common, showing where and
how minerals are sourced. In our former
gold and silver operation in Indonesia,
70% of the employees were from local
villages; working and supporting such
communities has always been a key
mantra of the mining sector, but it is
now part of global regulation. In one
of our mining operations in regional
Queensland, that statistic is replicated
where more than 70% of the workforce
live in the adjacent town. Today in
their operations. Mining companies - a lot can go wrong as supply chains
2030, most mining companies have
have also formed partnerships with are very precarious and it takes a long
outstanding ESG credentials.
technology companies to secure better time to go from a greenfield site to a
Focus and direction from leadership access to the technologies driving their producing copper mine - seven to ten
has also facilitated putting ESG at the operations. As demand for minerals and years minimum. Stricter regulations
centre of mining operations today - a metals has increased, these technology around permitting were also a delaying
successful operation is based on trust partnerships have supported higher factor and it pushed costs up. Now that
and strong ESG principles. Engaging valuations in mining; as not only was mining plays a more critical role in the
with communities, for example, requires the sector underinvested, but it was global energy system and we needed to
a big team of people, good policies and also undervalued. Governments and ensure a stable supply of these critical
good execution, but leadership is what businesses have also learnt lessons minerals, a lot of patience, effort and
makes it work. The results then speak from the COVID-19 crisis where the working together has created a sector
for themselves, we see successful mining sector has played an important where operations are working more cost
communities, mine workers and their role. It taught us not to outsource effectively and efficiently.
families all flourishing and prospering everything - meaning there has been a
lot of focus over the past ten years on Australia, today, is becoming a
alongside the mining operators and
developing new mines, new processing superpower as it has some of the
investors, through establishment of
and mining technology and establishing world's largest resources of the
better infrastructure, new schools,
new raw material supply chains for commodities and critical minerals
training, better medical care, or even
domestic use as well as for exports. needed for this energy transition.
just the availability of clean water.
Cobalt, nickel, and lithium all make
We have also seen more vertical Public and private sector collaboration up a bigger part of Australian exports
integration between sectors dominant is making the energy transition easier today, along with its more traditional
in this new energy transition - this has in mining. There has been a lot of commodities like iron ore, copper, gold
increased competition and lowered collaboration across government and and metallurgical coal - growing global
costs. Earlier this decade, electric businesses, and across different regions demand for minerals and mining is very
car companies were already moving and newer supply chains. Initially, this good news indeed for Australia.
into mining to secure supplies for all meant that business slowed down

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 44

“In 2030 energy and

climate policy is no
longer a cultural or
tribal signifier, so it has
become less political
with everyone rowing
in the same direction
for a decarbonised,
efficient, reliable,
and cost-effective
energy system.”
AUDREY ZIBELMAN
VICE PRESIDENT
X, THE MOONSHOT FACTORY

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 45

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 46

Jemma Green “Blockchain technology is building the trust needed

in this new energy world.”
CO-FOUNDER AND
EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN WHAT ARE THE KEY TECHNOLOGIES energy mix from a variety of sources
Powerledger THAT HAVE TRANSFORMED THE ENERGY such as solar farms, wind, biogas and
LANDSCAPE OVER THE PAST DECADE AND P2P with their neighbours – they can
WHAT DO YOU THINK HAVE BEEN SOME OF choose the certified source and origin
THE KEY DRIVERS? of the energy purchased. Trust will be
of increased importance in this new
Our company Powerledger was
energy world - people want to know they
built on a clean energy vision. We
are getting the specific things they are
have developed an energy and
purchasing and supporting.
After completing a business flexibility trading platform that allows
degree majoring in finance at households, organisations, and the
Murdoch University, Perth, grid itself, to trade with each other. In WHAT HAVE BEEN THE KEY STEPS OF THE
Dr. Jemma Green moved to 2030, we are much closer to having POWER MARKET EVOLUTION TO 2030?
London where she worked predominantly clean energy in a system It is key to understand that the energy
in banking including at J.P. that works for everyone, with many transition was not just a matter of
Morgan, where she oversaw a people having access to electricity swapping coal or gas for solar and
geographically dispersed team generated in large part via local, low- battery systems. Energy is not
of 25 to implement software cost, stable and clean energy sources. like cocoa beans. The system has
development for deal and risk This electricity is delivered through the moved from centralised planning and
capture in exotic and hybrid main grid, meaning the market is now centralised pricing to this decentralised
equity derivatives. both distributed and decentralised. hyper local market signalling, which
Jemma was also involved with balances local energy supply and
As the market has changed, the role of
setting up J.P. Morgan’s Global demand and reduces the need for
technology has become increasingly
Environmental Risk office which more costly upgrades to the grid.
important. New technologies were
was launched in 2007. Jemma needed to better enable renewable Looking back, the first part of the energy
has also completed two post- energy trading, renewable asset transition was around energy self-
grad diplomas and a Masters financing and more efficient carbon and supply from solar and then batteries
at Cambridge University in renewable energy certificate and credit and the move to microgrids. Here in
sustainability and completed markets. New technologies also allowed Australia, everything changed in 2025
a PhD in electricity market individual consumers and organisations with the rollout of two-sided markets
disruption at Curtin University. to participate in wider market supply for and adoption of new regulations. By
Since co-founding the energy, ancillary and network services, 2030 we have a fully-fledged two-sided
Powerledger venture, Jemma as well as on the demand side. market where households are paid
has overseen the development
variable rates for their energy based on
of numerous software projects From my perspective, the major driver
the value they provide to the grid or the
that integrate blockchain has been the emergence of two-
wholesale electricity market.
technology in software for sided energy markets and the need
distributed energy markets. for efficient and transparent markets So in 2030, we have a more flexible,
and operating systems, supported by independent, and more automated
technologies that seamlessly connect energy system which consists of many
buyers and sellers and authenticates and microgrids and local energy markets
settles transactions. The Powerledger within the grids. This has meant less
system uses blockchain technology autonomy for the big utilities as any
to certify the origin and source of household or business can connect
renewable energy. As an example, to and trade directly with wholesale
households can choose their own electricity markets and be paid for it.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 47

or supplements the loss of income from

selling them electricity. Non-cannibalistic
means targeting new markets, so, for
example, setting up in parts of Australia
where you didn’t operate before, like
regional areas. Those who have chosen
innovation are succeeding.

HOW HAS THE ENERGY CONSUMER CHANGED?

Under the old model, the customer was
more of a passive recipient of energy,
just buying what the utilities sold. Over
the past decade customers have been
engaged in the subject of energy in a
more personal way, to identify what
matters to them with the goal of better
targeting products and services.

It has been interesting for me to see

renewable energy households and
communities emerging and becoming
more active market participants. They now
think, “shall I connect my energy system
to a platform that allows me to access
many market opportunities?" Customers
may have different energy suppliers for
their electric vehicles (EVs) and for their
regulatory changes. Back in 2021, the
WHAT DOES THE UTILITY OR RETAILER OF houses, so they think, "shall I charge my
2030 LOOK LIKE? grid was not set up to deal with the large
EV tonight as there’s a high price event
influx of power coming into it from rooftop
New players have entered the energy coming and that can pay for my dinner at
solar. At that time, the Australian Electricity
market - cities, new utilities and a "restaurant?" Consumers may invest in a
Regulator was even recommending
corporates like shopping centres, large battery system to allow them to play
bringing in charges for this excess
supermarkets, and hardware stores. energy markets like investing in the stock
electricity to help the grid cope. Utilities
Incumbents still exist but they are market. They watch the price of electricity
started their flight from the market by
seeing immense competition from new like they watch the price of Bitcoin, with
divesting or separating old energy assets
commercial and business models from settlements happening in real-time.
from new and demerging.
Consumers make choices like this about
the big technology companies which
The rest chose innovation – and there energy all the time today.
typically have a large customer base.
At the beginning of this decade, they are broadly two types: cannibalistic and
This has however, generated a greater
were already offering things like credit non-cannibalistic. Cannibalistic innovation need for managing customer privacy.
cards, insurance and other services, so is where you cannibalise your own market There are exceptionally large volumes
it was a natural next step for big tech to share, because if you don’t, someone of data being generated and it needs to
become power retailers. else will. So, if I am a retailer, I offer be protected. What we are seeing is a
customers solar panels and batteries whole new electrical world of energy
Existing market incumbents had three before someone else does, even if it emerging - a root and branch market
choices as they lost market share and their means I sell that customer less electricity, change - and it needs to be managed
margins were squeezed - they could fight, and I make margin on the sale of the seamlessly, securely and efficiently.
flight or innovate. Some fought against solar and battery system, which offsets This will be a key focus area as the
industry continues its evolution.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 48

Joanne Fox
EXECUTIVE, PEOPLE & CULTURE
AGL ENERGY

Joanne Fox joined AGL in June

2019, following a successful
career at Santos.

With more than 25 years’

experience, Joanne has a strong
and diverse background leading
the Human Resources function
in large ASX100 companies
in the oil and gas, FMCG and
pharmaceutical industries.
Joanne brings extensive In 2030, we are leading the energy The COVID-19 crisis meant we had to
experience in capability and transition by driving different thinking deal with an increase in hybrid working;
culture development, succession and innovation, and by listening to its legacy is that most of our people are
management, talent development what our customers need and want now working far more flexibly to suit
and organisational design. from us. We engage people at work their lifestyles. We always believed that
by understanding what is important – the office was an important place for
Joanne holds a Graduate connecting people, building trust and
whether it be meaning and purpose,
Certificate in Energy & Resources culture. Post-COVID-19, less time in the
flexibility, or the opportunity to be with
from University College of office meant we were more focused on
like-minded people working towards a
London, a Masters of Business making sure that when people were not
Administration from the common cause. We have changed our
working face-to-face, there was planning
University of South Australia and ways of working, taking advantage of
and time for both networking, knowledge
is a Graduate of the Australian new opportunities and having a highly
capture and information sharing.
Institute of Company Directors. inclusive working environment. We
have evolved our approach to talent The pandemic meant we had to look
development, training and leadership, closely at the employee experience
and place equal focus on the mental lifecycle. We transformed our approaches
and physical health of our employees. to onboarding, developing and mentoring
“Our transformation Some of these changes came about
people with connection hubs in regional
centres and throughout the cities in
started with the because of the COVID-19 pandemic
of 2020-21, but it is also the result of
which we operate. We brought work back
to Australia by thinking differently about
understanding that our the pace and agility required to lead how we build mastery level capabilities
the accelerated energy transition. It
customers and people has required different skillsets and
using international, online learning
communities and built global capabilities.
deserve the best.” approaches to relationship building.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 49

This increased the depth of the pool divergent thinking from engineering from onboarding right through to
of candidates with specialist skills in and customer experience to ethical leadership development. We no longer
Australia and significantly improved our leadership. Our workplace is a safe and design our own bespoke leadership
ability to innovate and perform. Working thriving space for people who think programs because we do not need to -
differently means our people have much and work differently as they achieve we are more equipped to capture and use
more control over when and where amazing results together. These new all the great work that is already out there.
they work, and our leaders are skilled skill sets and different capabilities are
at knowing how to get the best out of also facilitating better networking and Our organisation looks different today.
people who work in distributed teams. results across our organisation. The old set up of big corporate offices
has morphed into smaller hubs -
COVID-19 also changed our focus on Over the past decade we have also been connecting people both outside the
health and wellbeing, in particular, mental able to transform core organisational company with technology leaders and
health. It has now been mainstreamed processes using different mindsets and stakeholders, and internally through
as part of the safety conversation and the technology. In doing so, there is clear hubs where our people and projects
mental health resources we have available communication on what is required and come together.
to our people are sophisticated and how it will be delivered. We recognise
supported by a growing demand for them. that the pandemic as caused people This new, more flexible organisation
to think long and hard about what they with smaller working hubs has built on
The pace of change in the energy want out of work and life. Our approach our employees’ sense of purpose and
transition has also driven our has been to enable our employees to connection, ensuring as a business
transformation as an organisation. We choose from a wide range of benefits we are offering the personalised
have a greater focus on Research & which are tailored to their own unique experiences we know our customers
Development (R&D) and a keen focus to life. As part of this, we connect earlier want. This understanding started
improve stakeholder engagement. Our with people who are off-ramping for the with us taking care of our own people
R&D is progressing as we bring people next stage in their life. This has delivered and coming together with the right
together who can provide clarity of what big benefits in attraction, retention and mindset - only then did the better
is required while managing relationships knowledge transfer, which allows many people experience and the customer
collaboratively. With thinking from many to stay working productively for longer. experience really come together.
different disciplines, we have been able
to achieve or exceed our commercial Our customers know we have embraced
goals and at a rapid pace. change and as result we have become
a key place for customers to get all their
Our approach to ESG issues has essential needs meet. We are focused on
changed significantly. Over this decade providing choice and flexibility, enabling
there has been an expectation from our customers to get the best deals and
boards, the public, and our customers remain connected. They know when
and employees to give more prominence they choose us they will receive genuine
to ESG and stakeholder engagement. and quality interactions, a wide range of
This is a key topic for our people who choice and flexibility and all to be found
challenge the business to be agile and through seamless digital experiences.
open to change, knowing that when they
speak up and offer these views they will Our leaders have become more effective
be listened to and supported. because they take the time to really
know and understand our people - they
We have also built the digital are skilled talent developers and connect
capabilities of the workforce - which our people with meaning and purpose.
have supported our wider use
of artificial intelligence and data Training has changed due to the wider
visualisation tools. Our digital know- use of tools like augmented and virtual
how mentoring program is bearing reality. The days of everybody attending
fruit and is democratised to the point a training course simultaneously and in
that our digital and data specialists person are over! Learning has become
come from all walks of life, applying more democratised and decentralised

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 50

John C. Mankins
DIRECTOR
SOLAR SPACE TECHNOLOGIES

“Space power – the

sweet spot between
technology, efficiency,
performance,
and money.”

Space energy - or specifically solar The success of space energy, up to

power from space - has become a now, has depended on the lessons
major consideration in 2030. There learnt from space exploration earlier in
are three main drivers making space this decade. Back in 2021, we already
energy work today. The low cost of had clear examples of solutions that
launch, mass production of hardware were cost effective, achievable and
and the urgent need to find more utilised simpler technologies. The use
solutions to climate change. An of reusable launch systems meant the
excellent place to produce space cost of getting into orbit was already
90% cheaper than it was in previous
based solar power is in middle
decades. Affordable satellite networks
Earth orbit - high enough so that
were also being launched, offering low-
the spacecraft is in the sun all the
cost internet access in remote locations
time, but not so high that the cost of
at costs below fiber-based solutions.
transmission becomes prohibitive.
Today, we have modular hardware
launched on new, largely reusable
boosters as well as reliable and cost-
effective communications in space.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 51

for activities on the Moon and in space

John C. Mankins is President of Artemis Innovation Management Solutions generally. For example, how to you do big
LLC and of Mankins Space Technology, Inc. and a Director of Solar Space data processing in space - for instance,
Technologies. He is Vice President of the Moon Village Association, and is block chain computing - or how do you
a Dean and Professor at the on-line Kepler Space Institute. support mining on the Moon? Also, you
While at NASA and JPL, Mankins held numerous positions, including as need to access cheap transportation
Chief Technologist for Human Exploration and Development of Space throughout cislunar space, and for all of it
at NASA HQ, where he received the NASA Exceptional Technology you need vast amounts of cheap energy.
Achievement Medal. So, I think, the next “Great Game,” or
source of great power tensions, will
He holds a B.S. (HMC), an M.S. (UCLA) and an MBA (Claremont Graduate be centred on cislunar space and its
University). He is a member of the AAAS and the IAA. resources. No one can do anything
Mankins is known for writing the definitions of the Technology Readiness unless you can refuel, communicate and
Levels and as the world’s leading expert in the field of “Space Solar Power”. manufacture - and that all comes down to
affordable and abundant energy.

Over the past decade, solar power There have also been improvements in
has been a primary focus of space battery technologies used for energy
development and is the main reason storage, especially cost reductions.
we are now able to deliver terrestrial It is, however, taking a lot of time to
energy from space. It has proven highly industrialise these technologies to
complementary with traditional ground- make them cost competitive and
based renewables. It has not only robust at large scale.
become cost competitive, but it also
mitigates the intermittency of renewable Space energy is unfortunately generating
energy on Earth as it has a dispatchable a lot of geopolitical tension. There was a
baseload, meaning the energy from first mover advantage in getting an orbital
space solar power stations can be slot and spectrum1 allocated for wireless
delivered when you want and where you power transmission for your system, so
want it. This means that today you can one satellite could power various cities
have that power fed into the local grid from one slot. Also, there are only so
near Sydney and tomorrow you can feed many geostationary slots, so you’ve got
into the local grid in Singapore. There is to get an orbital slot and you’ve got to get
no other renewable energy option flexible spectrum allocated so that your system
enough to do that. Also, even if it is locally won't interfere with others (as there are
overcast or raining, space solar power a multitude of spectrum users). Tensions
can still be delivered as clouds are almost have also grown concerning who owns
transparent to the microwaves used to space solar systems and who is selling
wirelessly transmit power back to Earth. power to whom.

Space energy is not all simplicity As space energy gets cheaper, another
and flexibility, however. We have source of geopolitical tension is on the
seen the development of other new horizon: cislunar space, i.e. activity on
and complementary technologies and near Earth’s Moon. In this case,
including alternatives to magnetic- tensions are less likely to be about
confinement tokamak fusion and energy production for use on Earth but
marginal improvements in solar arrays. more about how to generate power

1 The entire electromagnetic spectrum around the earth orbits is used to observe and allow a variety of things. Radio waves and microwaves – the longest
wavelengths and lowest energies of light – are used by astronomers to look inside dense interstellar clouds and track the motion of cold, dark gas. The spectrum is
also being harnessed for other uses and increasingly being looked at for energy production.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 52

Justine Jarvinen “The energy transition has brought a tsunami of data

– it’s like standing in front of a fire hydrant and trying
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER to drink.”
UNSW ENERGY INSTITUTE

WHAT IS THE MIX OF ENERGY IN THE MARKET PV electrolysis and electrolysis using
Justine Jarvinen (JJ) is CEO TODAY IN 2030 – HOW FAR ARE WE TOWARD seawater instead of fresh water.
of the UNSW Energy Institute. ACHIEVING NET ZERO?
She has a breadth of experience As the energy transition progresses and
across the entire energy As Australia’s energy transition continues is dominated by technology, there is
value chain and has worked in to unfold, we have finally noticed that the increasing evidence of the technology
operational, investment analyst, future of the energy sector is underpinned “haves” and “have nots”. Globally, millions
strategy and advisory roles in by electricity - electrical machines and of people still have no access to electricity
Australia and the UK. power electronics. Over the past decade, and the COVID-19 pandemic of the early
we have been electrifying everything from 2020’s put a big dent in the ability to get to
JJ is Chairman of energy vehicles and residences, to ports, airports, universal access. Some of that was eased
technology company and commercial facilities. There are areas by local solutions such as rooftop solar
Wattwatchers, non-executive where Australia has been ahead of the rest and home batteries, but there is still a big
director of ASX-listed Milton of the world in the energy transition, such divergence in energy cost and availability
Corporation, and non-executive as rooftop solar and battery uptake, but in depending on where you live. Meanwhile
director of Climate-KIC others, such as electric vehicle uptake, we in Australia, it’s more a challenge of fuel
Australia. She is a graduate have lagged. As we head into 2030 and poverty (that is, affordability) than access.
of the Australian Institute of get nearer to the net zero target, we’re We are also aware of the need to protect
Company Directors, holds now panicking and asking if we can really vulnerable consumers from companies
a Bachelor of Engineering meet it. who are installing and managing their new
(Chemical) with First Class
renewable power systems - making sure
Honours, and is a Fellow of Over the last decade progress was
that they still get quality products and a
the Financial Services Institute made in some of the newer net zero
competitive deal in what is, sometimes, a
of Australia. energy technologies. To deal with the
monopoly market sitting on your rooftop.
intermittency of renewables, we now rely
on storage, not only traditional batteries
but longer duration storage, including flow WHAT ROLE IS DATA PLAYING IN CHANGING THE
batteries, hydrogen, hydro and pumped LANDSCAPE FOR BOTH THE CONSUMER AND THE
hydro. We are now also considering SUPPLIERS OF ENERGY?
technologies like nuclear - produced by In the early 2020’s, as our energy
smaller, cheaper modular reactors - and systems became more electrified, we
are seeing moves toward fossil-fuel saw exponential amounts of data being
independent vehicles, including solar- generated. This data is being created
electric cars and fuel cell vehicles. For by smart meters, and by devices being
commercial transport, like trucks, where installed by consumers and businesses:
it’s been much harder to use battery rooftop solar inverters, household and
electric vehicles, we’re trying to cost community battery inverters, EVs, and
effectively produce hydrogen for use in systems that monitor and help to optimise
fuel cells - including from biomass, solar these devices with each other and with

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 53

the grid. So, we developed technology and

regulations to allow control of the export
of power from sites. This means that the
output of someone’s rooftop solar PV and
battery can, when necessary, be directed
by the government to stop grid congestion
and avoid emergencies such as major
blackouts. This needed open, yet secure,
cyber connections and robust physical
connections to the grid.

We have also seen a campaign to ensure

that standards continue to evolve. For
example, back in the early 2020s, most
inverters had passed the Australian
standards, but they were proving to be
substandard just because of the new
demands being placed upon them as a
result of being installed on an increasingly
complex grid.
the grid. It’s also being generated by Finally, we realised that increasingly we
Standards have also had to evolve in
grid-scale inverters that connect solar were just flying blind. As we know with
the consumer space. Companies have
and wind farms and so-called “big data, it’s not quantity but the quality that
bundled other services with energy
batteries” to the grid. The speed of is important and it has taken time for
deals, such as the charging of electric
response of inverter-connected devices electricity network companies and other
vehicles. Also, new “virtual power plant”
is less than a micro-second or even in energy services companies to extract
operators traded differently, some trading
tens of nanoseconds. Over the past the insights from data. Only then could
for price, grid stability, or green energy
decade, they have been the tipping point they offer better services and value for
consumption. New retail tariff designs
on the grid, and we now have a system their customers.
were needed and the regulators had to
dominated by inverter connected smart
The volume of data in this new energy determine what prices would apply within
devices all producing a tsunami of data.
landscape has resulted in other community microgrids, in peer-to-peer
The energy transition was unprecedented. considerations. The first is that consumers supply or locally generated supply.
First, the system buffers we relied on needed to make sure they were in control
These new market issues - new
were disappearing. The buffer of gas of their own data and who had access to
technologies, more industry convergence,
storage in pipelines and gas reservoirs it, which presented new business models
evolving standards, complex prices,
that supported and complemented for companies to provide new data related
and the availability and reliability of
electricity systems was dwindling, as gas services to consumers. The second is
renewable generation (all operating in
fired power became relatively expensive that data - for optimising consumption,
an energy system needing open, yet
and consumers switched to electric for exporting energy to the grid, for billing
secure connections) - has been extremely
appliances. Coal-fired electricity was also - needs to be granular, real-time and not
complicated for the regulator to manage.
rapidly retired from the grid. behind proprietary walls.
To be honest, they are still trying to find a
Then timescales were compressing, and path through.
the pace of data flow was dramatically HOW HAVE THESE CHANGES AFFECTED HOW
increasing. It was coming in at such speed
ENERGY MARKETS ARE REGULATED TODAY?
and scale, it was like standing in front of The nature of this new energy market
a fire hydrant and trying to get a drink. needed new regulations and standards.
We went from getting a few cumulative Today, in Australia, the job of the electricity
readings of a household electricity system operator, to monitor and balance
meter in a year to more than a hundred supply and demand, is incredibly complex
thousands real-time energy-related with so many households and businesses
readings per day. and renewable energy sites connected to

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 54

Lily D’Ambrosio “The new energy system has improved our way
of life – we are healthier, prosperous and more
MINISTER FOR ENERGY, community focused..”
ENVIRONMENT AND
CLIMATE CHANGE The system is now different in three main
AS YOU LOOK BACK FROM 2030,
VICTORIAN GOVERNMENT WHAT STANDS OUT ABOUT THE ENERGY respects. First, it’s more decarbonised.
TRANSITION? Here in Victoria, over 50% of our
electricity comes from renewable energy
The key change in the last ten years is
sources like solar and wind. We are
that the energy transition has become
also well on the way to solving the next
democraticised. Communities have
energy challenge - decarbonising the
been at the heart of this energy system
The Hon. Lily D’Ambrosio MP natural gas system. Second, with more
transition and we, in government, have
is a member of the Australian distributed power generation from
made sure that no one was left behind.
Labor Party and has represented renewables, energy is cheaper and
the electorate of Mill Park As the impacts of climate change more efficient. We’ve seen retail power
in the Victorian Legislative became more pronounced, we knew prices and power bills decline. Finally,
Assembly since 2002. In that communities and governments had we have been careful to make sure that
2016 she became Minister to step up. Today, in the state of Victoria, consumers are protected. For example,
for Energy, Environment and we have millions of citizens of all levels energy companies need to inform their
Climate Change and Minister of income and household circumstances customers whether they’re on the best
who own and manage their own power energy plan, how much the customer
for Suburban Development, and
generation systems and range of smart could save by switching and all default
on the return of the Andrews
and efficient devices. plans need to offer competitive prices.
Labor Government she was
appointed Minister for Energy,
Environment and Climate
Change and Minister for
Solar Homes.

Minister D’Ambrosio is a leader

in action on climate change,
renewable energy and energy
efficiency in Australia. She
is a leading advocate for a
modernised Australian energy
system that facilitates a smooth
transition into a clean, reliable
and affordable energy future.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 55

HOW HAVE YOU BEEN ABLE TO PROTECT THE HOW HAS THE ENERGY TRANSITION DO YOU REMAIN OPTIMISTIC FOR THE
MORE VULNERABLE ENERGY CONSUMER? SUPPORTED THE ECONOMY IN THE STATE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN AUSTRALIA?
We’ve always been focused on making
OF VICTORIA? The impacts of climate change sent a
sure that the transition did not leave Energy investments like these have clear message to all world leaders and
communities behind. We put in place been transformative - they have created state governments - they needed to pick
tangible programs to support more thousands of local jobs. At the start of up the game. Today, in 2030, Australia is
vulnerable energy users. For example, this decade, we believed that our 50% no longer an energy transition laggard.
our Solar Homes program, which meant renewable electricity target would create We are now renewable energy leaders
people could get solar no matter their 24,000 jobs - but we’ve exceeded that by - particularly in solar, offshore wind and
circumstances. The program meant that some measure. But this has not just been hydrogen. The urgency of responding
solar panel installation could be done about creating new renewable megawatts to climate change has become shared
with rebates from the state for half the or decarbonising the gas system - it has across all Australian governments - which
price of a new solar PV system, while also led to a range of new supply chain was what we always needed to solve a
consumers could pay the other half opportunities. Energy industry skills and problem that impacted all of us.
through a no-interest loan scheme. As a capabilities have existed in Victoria for many
In Victoria, the transition has to adapt
result, we’ve seen more than a million decades, but with a more targeted focus
our existing skills for a different energy
homes in Victoria installing solar panels on local content, we have transformed our
system. Today, we have terrific workforce
on their roofs. This has been particularly energy supply chain to better support solar,
capabilities, whether it is in plumbing,
important for the most vulnerable onshore and offshore wind industries and
power electronics, solar, hydrogen or
consumers, who have become both the power electronics industries.
offshore wind.
beneficiaries of, and contributors to, the
Today, Victoria is a training hub for new
decarbonisation of the energy system. We are building something here that
energy technology investments across
benefits all our communities and delivers
We’ve also made huge strides in the Asia Pacific region. We have invested
prosperity. It’s not just about economic
improving energy efficiency in existing in more TAFE courses specialising in
wealth either; it’s about valuing every
housing stock. Back in 2020, we new energy technologies. As such,
member of our community, no matter
announced a $797 million household we have been able to grow an entire
where they live. By investing both
energy package. As part of this, we ecosystem of new energy technology
carefully and ambitiously, we have
upgraded and replaced older heating skills here in Victoria.
communities today who can both
systems for 250,000 vulnerable
Offshore wind has been a game changer. participate in and benefit from this new
householders, with a $1,000 rebate
Victoria already had good resources for energy system. We’ve come a long way,
for low-income households to replace
onshore wind generation across the state. but there is still a lot of hard work to do.
old heaters with modern split-system.
But over the last decade, wind farms
This meant houses were cooler in the
have been developed offshore, putting
summer and warmer during the winter
us amongst the top five offshore wind
- and helped up use all the solar power
generators in the world.
being produced by households. We
also upgraded 35,000 social housing Victoria has also led the development
properties and established requirements of a new hydrogen industry. We had the
for landlords to keep rental properties at largest distributed gas network in the
a minimum energy efficiency standard. whole of Australia and were risking a huge
We continued improving the energy stranded asset as it became underutilized.
standard of new builds, which has Several pilot projects led the way, which
made the 2030 housing stock more blended renewable hydrogen with gas
comfortable and energy efficient than in the existing network - one particularly
anything we built before. successful one has been the Wodonga
or Hydrogen Park Murray Valley project,
which received early funding from
Australian Renewable Energy Agency.
We are continuing to increase the mix
of green hydrogen throughout gas
infrastructure today.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 56

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 57

“Today, I think
there is more
of a mindset
that we are all
in this together,
all our actions
have an impact,
and we need to
collaborate
more to drive
real change.”
LYNNE GALLAGHER
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
ENERGY CONSUMERS
AUSTRALIA

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 58

Lynne Gallagher is an economist/econometrician by qualification and

has substantial experience in economic modelling and policy reform
processes, including working with the Council of Australian Governments,
and in strategic issues management in the corporate sector. Her career has
seen her spend 15 years in a technical environment, followed by 12 years
in practice and as an adviser. Prior to her appointment as ECA’s Director of
Research, Lynne was Executive Director, Industry Development at Energy
Networks Australia. Lynne brings to ECA strong insights, a strategic focus
and a consumer advocacy perspective which has been honed from her
work with network businesses, retailers and regulators.

LOOKING BACK AS WE ARE NOW IN 2030, maximise the value of technology that
WHAT CAN YOU TELL US ABOUT CONSUMER might be physically situated in their
DRIVEN CHANGE IN THE ENERGY SECTOR home or business. This means they are
OVER THE LAST TEN YEARS? rewarded as part of the wider distributed
energy system and their technology is
By 2030, the energy system has been
managed in a way that doesn’t just meet
transformed by consumers from the
their own needs for home comfort or
bottom-up. What started with the
business profitability, but also creates
extraordinary consumer investment in
value for everyone.
rooftop solar was followed by a surge
in demand for storage, electric vehicles What we came to understand in the early
and smart devices, all of which were 2020’s was that while many of us were
increasingly embedded in services. able to use rooftop solar to dramatically
cut energy bills and clean up our own
Companies that won the decade in
Lynne Gallagher this new environment understood
Australian household and small business
energy supply, many people - including
people on low incomes and renters, and
those without a roof - were being left
consumers in all their diversity and
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER shaped their services accordingly. This
behind by the energy transition.

ENERGY CONSUMERS was a paradigm shift from the winning

ARE CONSUMERS NOW SEEN AS ‘PARTNERS
business models of earlier decades
AUSTRALIA which were all about understanding how IN CHANGE’ IN THE 2030 LANDSCAPE – AND
to leverage scale and efficiencies in a IF SO, WHY?
centralised supply chain to compete on Consumers are seen as ‘partners in
price for a homogeneous commodity. change’ because the whole weight of
the market and the place where value is
The energy services market in 2030 is
created has shifted ‘behind the meter’
very difficult to distinguish from markets
into the home and small business
for other services, be that transport,
“Consumers up-ended telecommunications, and online retailing
premises.

the energy system, or real estate searches, because they

are shaped by consumers needs for
The more progressive and forward-
looking parts of the energy sector
driven by expectations comfort, control and convenience. started to make this big switch in
thinking in the early part of the decade,
of a better energy WHAT DOES THE CONSUMER OF 2030 EXPECT realising that not only does business
future...” FROM THEIR ENERGY SERVICE PROVIDER? success hinge on securing the consent
of consumers to make a change to
Consumers in 2030 trust their energy
the way essential energy services are
service provider to be their agent. They
structured and priced, but that you can
look for service providers who can
take people with you. People are willing

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 59

to try new things, or wear cost or even business model for rooftop solar PV properties with higher energy efficiency
inconvenience if they are persuaded which made the clean choice also the ratings, to no-interest loan schemes
there is a bigger payoff for them and the affordable choice in the early part of for more energy efficient appliances
community. the decade really provided the impetus and home retrofits, through to gifting
for us to begin the journey to net zero. programs which allow employees and
WHAT JOURNEY HAVE ENERGY SERVICE It showed us where ‘demand pull’ can customers to donate funds to support
PROVIDERS GONE THROUGH TO MEET THEIR take you. low-income households retrofit housing
CUSTOMERS’ EXPECTATIONS IN 2030? for greater energy efficiency. This has a
And fortunately new, more social impact - for example, supporting
The old expectation in the energy sophisticated business models then people living in the poorest homes - as
market was that if consumers wanted emerged which helped solve the it means that less of their discretionary
‘better’ they should really have to next set of challenges for consumers income is being sucked into simply
work for it by being ‘active’. Virtuous and the system: how to optimise heating or cooling their houses.
‘active’ consumers were expected to and coordinate millions of connected
shop around and switch in a complex devices; how to unlock discretionary
market where loyalty wasn’t necessarily energy use in the home and business to DO YOU SEE ANY OTHER BIG DISRUPTIONS
rewarded, or by changing their energy give the system the flexibility it needed
IN THE ENERGY MARKET IN 2030 FROM THE
behaviours even if they were deeply to host high penetrations of intermittent
CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE?
embedded in daily routines that were renewables without compromising on There is a tendency to think about
largely fixed by practices around work, home comforts or business profitability; disruption in terms of the technology -
commuting, school hours and other how to leverage the mobile energy ‘the shiny kit’ - as the game changer for
social obligations. This of course was storage capability of electric vehicles the energy market. But in the same way
part of a construct which validated, while giving drivers the freedom to plug that even the experts were surprised by
quite explicitly, consumers being in and charge when they need to. the way the iPhone unlocked the sharing
penalised for being ‘inactive’ economy, I think we will be surprised by
or ‘passive’. HAS THERE BEEN A SHIFT IN PURCHASING the new interactions and services that
POWER TOWARDS THE CONSUMER AND evolve around these new technologies.
By 2030, energy service providers
have realised that it is their job to do
WITH THAT OPPORTUNITY? HOW HAS THAT It’s easy to overlook how the household
the ‘active’ part for consumers who
MANIFESTED ITSELF IN THE MARKET IN 2030? not just as a taker of energy services but
may not have time or expertise to A consumer’s ‘energy dollar’ goes much as a producer and a market participant
devote to following the market or further in 2030 because smarter energy profoundly changes the way we think
optimising increasingly complex energy management technology and services in about what ‘home’ means. The daily
technologies and systems. the home and small business have given routines and social practices we take
them the fine-tuned control over their for granted - how and when we make
The journey wasn’t without bumps energy use that they never had in the old breakfast, when we shower, where we
in the road, with business models centralised, analogue, energy world. launder our clothes, when we gather
emerging which promised savings or a as a family to watch a movie - have
great customer experience but in time This new control, paired with a massive grown up around a particular model
failed to deliver. Empowered regulators uplift in the energy performance of our of electricity and gas enabled lighting,
employing a new, more agile, data- housing stock, means consumers have heating, and appliances that might very
driven model of consumer protection, been freed from the tyranny of leaky well be recast by different models of
quickly identified bad behaviour and homes where comfort depended on ownership, production and relationships.
acted to prevent consumer detriment running the air conditioner full-bore in We have seen how energy services
and a general hit to confidence. summer and the heater full-bore in winter. evolved in the past decade as the impact
In 2020, Australia was one of the few of the COVID-19 working from home
WHAT ROLE DID THESE NEW BUSINESS OECD countries without obligations on experiment stuck, opened up energy
MODELS HAVE IN DRIVING OR AFFECTING energy companies to support energy services which leveraged the additional
THE ENERGY TRANSITION TO NET ZERO? efficiency. Over the past decade, we flexibility working from home provided
have seen all sorts of creative ways to run certain appliances at times that
The Australian rooftop solar story is a
emerging to support consumers from previously were not practical.
testament to the power of a compelling
product arriving at the right time. The banks offering lower rates on loans for

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 60

Mark Mazurek
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
LINFOX

As CEO Linfox Logistics Australia

and New Zealand, Mark Mazurek
is responsible for leading the
largest privately-owned logistics
company in Asia Pacific to achieve
its vision to be the most trusted
logistics partner in Australia and
New Zealand. Mark leads the way WHAT ARE THE CHANGES OVER THE LAST DO YOU THINK THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
with a focused business strategy TEN YEARS WHICH HAVE LED TO A MORE CONSUMER HAS PLAYED A MAJOR ROLE IN
designed to deliver industry- SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION AND THIS SUSTAINABILITY SHIFT OVER THE LAST
leading safety, wellbeing and LOGISTICS SECTOR? 10 YEARS?
industry compliance, outstanding
Linfox operates thousands of vehicles We have been on so many journeys
customer service and smarter,
across Australia and New Zealand with our customers over the years - they
environmentally sustainable
and we have millions of square choose us because we have sustainability
supply chain solutions positioned
metres of warehouse space in both embedded into the organisation. We
for growth and prosperity.
countries. Our five-year “Leading the built our first carbon neutral warehouse
Mark is passionate about Way 2025” business strategy was in Willawong, Queensland in 2020,
promoting the logistics industry created at the start of this decade and installing over 700 kilowatts of solar PVs
and paving the way for a more will continue beyond it, with our key on the roof supported by a large storage
sustainable future through strategic driver: 'Act Sustainable.’ Our battery and a renewable electricity
innovation and investment GreenFox sustainability program aims contract. It enables us to charge electric
while attracting the best people to get Linfox to a better environmental vehicles directly, and, as it is also near
into the sector regardless of position by directing our focus to the railhead, it allows us to transport
age or gender. cleaner transport, mitigation of diesel products by rail, which is much less
emissions, waste management, water energy intensive. It means that when
conservation and temperature control the COVID-19 crisis happened, we
of our buildings, so we don’t waste could easily support and be supported

“I n trucking and power or food products that are being

transported. Previously, around 80% of
by our customers. They appreciated the
effort made by Linfox and our logistics
logistics, equipment our emissions came from our vehicles,
with the other 20% coming mainly from
partners - particularly around the extra
food deliveries and COVID-19 vaccination
has to work 24/7 - in power usage for temperature control storage. Our customers saw it was

the early days of in our warehouses. Over the last ten

years, Linfox has achieved an enormous
possible for an organisation like Linfox,
not only to develop a fully carbon neutral
hydrogen it was all a reduction in emissions. facility, but also make it available for use
in a real emergency.
bit of a challenge...”
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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 61

IN 2030, WHAT ARE THE MAIN RENEWABLE WHAT ELSE HAS BEEN IMPORTANT FOR LINFOX The change in regulations to allow more
SOURCES THAT YOU RELY ON? WHAT ARE THE IN MOVING TOWARD YOUR NET ZERO GOAL? of this type of vehicle has meant we can
CHALLENGES AND BENEFITS THEY PRESENT? There have been several changes which
now take more product longer distances
in a much more energy efficient way.
Hydrogen has been big for our company have really allowed us to decarbonise
and we have worked hard to assimilate and optimise our operations. For Strong relationships with our suppliers
it into our operations - to make it example, we made a huge investment in have also been very important. We value
“market ready”. Previously, most solar power. Back in 2021, we increased our long-term relationships and we
of our emissions came from diesel our solar generation by 50%; a year have worked with our partners to stay
usage but switching to hydrogen was later we increased it by another 100%, ahead of the curve in both sustainability
a game-changer. This was achieved meaning it accelerated the greening of and technology. For example, we
through a combination of the big OEM the sites we were building and the sites were buying Euro 6 standard vehicles
manufacturers providing companies we were leasing. to reduce our carbon footprint long
like ours with more durable, efficient, before they were mandated in Australia;
and warrantied equipment, along with We also changed to smart LED
we have worked with suppliers and
growing hydrogen infrastructure such lighting with tens of thousands of light
governments to create special rules
as refuelling stations for trucks. installations in our warehouses, transport
to allow our 80 tonne plus vehicles to
yards and offices. Even though we
travel safely through traffic signals;
Hydrogen hasn’t solved all our problems. generate our own renewable power, we
we have figured out ways to make
Even today, if we’re trying to get freight are also keen to save energy. Previously,
our vehicles more productive, so they
from Melbourne to Cairns it’s a challenge older warehousing technology used
don’t return empty from long trips. All
despite using hydrogen vehicles, so halogen style lighting which is very
this only comes by having the strong
instead we use Linfox’s intermodal inefficient. Between 2020 and 2022,
relationships and understanding with our
rail solution. Growth in rail freight in we changed over 12 thousand individual
partners and our customers, as well as
Australia has been facilitated by the bulbs across our network - a huge
the right systems in place.
federal government’s decision to build a undertaking. Today, it means we are
dedicated inland freight rail service that saving more than 7,000 megawatts-hour Our biggest shift toward net zero,
connected Melbourne to Brisbane in of electricity every year. This new lighting however, probably came about
the last decade - it meant a lot of trucks has the added advantage of being safer through our people - the fact that our
could be redeployed. - older bulbs take a while to warm up, GreenFox Champions care so much
meaning often people were working in about sustainability. Today we have a
Lithium batteries have also been very gloomier conditions. The newer lighting much younger workforce; they expect
important for our business. In our is instantaneous. It’s also smarter, not and demand that organisations like
warehouses, we operate equipment through being automatic, but in being ours do not damage the environment.
like forklifts and materials handling more intelligent, with motion and daylight Through a unique combination of our
equipment that used to run using LPG, harvesting sensors. It can, for example, employees being very passionate
which must be handled with care. As differentiate between warehousing zones about sustainability, along with the
lithium battery power improved, we to create optimum lighting conditions for Linfox family investing to realise a more
switched. Lithium has allowed us not our workforce. In this way, it has reduced sustainable logistics business, we have
only to become carbon neutral but to run both our costs and energy consumption. created a real driving force toward net
our warehouse operations more safely.
zero for our business.
We have used higher productivity
With energy prices dropping during the vehicles in locations where it made
last decade, renewable electricity from sense - larger vehicles with higher
the grid powered by solar, wind and weight loads. As they have more brakes
green hydrogen played an important and axles, they drive with better stability
part of the clean electricity consumed and efficiency. It means they are not only
in our warehouses. more effective to drive, but that the road
surface isn’t damaged by their weight.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 62

Matthew Warren is a leading commentator on climate and energy

Matthew Warren in Australia. Matthew has spent the past 25 years working inside
Australia’s energy and environmental policy debates and has worked
for coal, renewables and major energy companies, running the
ENERGY JOURNALIST AND Australian Energy Council and the Clean Energy Council. He is author
MARKET COMMENTATOR of the Walkley nominated book Blackout, and is a regular contributor on
energy and climate for the Australian Financial Review. He is a Principal
at Boardroom Energy, a business advisory on energy and climate.

WHAT ARE THE MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE consumption is data driven. Trading
ENERGY LANDSCAPE TODAY IN 2030? between consumers is automated,
distributed batteries and solar generators
In Australia in 2030, we are producing less
are digitally aggregated.
“So far this energy emissions in our energy use compared to
a decade earlier. Investment continues in Electric vehicle charging is becoming an
transition has Renewable Energy Zones supported by a integral part of this system. Chargers are
combination of firming technologies: more
been inefficient utility scale batteries and pumped hydro.
located in daytime car parks and shopping
centres, anywhere to maximise the free
and unequal...” Snowy 2.0 is finally on-line, but there is still
inter-state haggling about who will pay for
solar electricity in the middle of the day.
EV owners are supposed to leave their
the expanded transmission to Tasmania’s cars attached to chargers to help feed
Battery of the Nation project. electricity back in during the late afternoon,
but many of them unplug their cars so
More coal generators have closed, while
they still have a full tank of electricity to
there is more gas peaking capacity, to
drive home.
jump in around the renewables, along
with some early adopters of expensive Most of the electricity market reforms
bulk hydrogen which is used to store and introduced in the 1990’s have been phased
release the renewables oversupply. out. It has been a gradual, indirect process.
The electricity market continues mainly
It’s become an increasingly inelegant
as a dispatch mechanism. Investment
and interventionist transformation.
is driven by each state government in
More utility scale batteries are needed
coordination with the Australian Energy
to provide the blistering electricity grid
Central Planner (formerly AEMO).
ramp rates required every late afternoon,
but each one requires significant co- The replacement of a market-based
funding from governments to cross the approach with central planning has made
commercial line. the grid less efficient, more expensive
and more “gold plated”. Some multi-billion
Transport and stationary energy are still
dollar transmission lines considered
significantly dependent on fossil fuels with
“essential” a few years earlier are rarely
conventional fuel vehicles, while natural
used. Stranded assets grow in number.
gas and coal are still in widespread use.
Power bills are capped (it’s more politically
Globally, affluent low carbon markets
palatable) and the cost of a decade of
like Europe and the US have resorted
wasteful investment transferred onto
to industrial protectionism to help
public debt.
them protect domestic markets while
transitioning to a lower carbon economy. Carbon pricing has been reintroduced
(somewhat reluctantly) as a strategic
The retail electricity market has
response to the global carbon trade wars
fragmented. There is more bundling
between China, Europe and the US.
of energy with other services. Energy

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 63

HOW ARE THE COMPETING VOICES AND

BUSINESSES IN THE ENERGY SECTOR
CO-EXISTING IN 2030?
Changing industry dynamics and new
competitors have created an extremely
difficult environment for incumbents.
This has been particularly evident in the
natural gas industry which is battling for
its survival - the fight has become highly
politicised and companies are being
increasingly demonised. While they still
play a critical role in the new energy
market, like proving low cost, high
temperature heat, efforts to reduce
emissions through sequestration
have proved stubbornly expensive and
ineffective. Gas remains essential for
key industrial consumers and remains
highly export focussed, yet its oddly
also a twilight industry, its demise
dependent on the arrival of low-cost
hydrogen. The hydrogen revolution has
progressed, but has underwhelmed
firsters. The former have switched to
WHAT HAVE BEEN SOME OF THE KEY early euphoria. It’s a sullen market: gas
DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE PAST DECADE electric vehicles, the latter continue to continuing to serve critical industries
THAT HAVE GOT US TO THIS POINT IN 2030? drive combustion engine cars. and export markets while waiting for
its execution by a replacement that
Australia hoped to create new economic To mitigate this, successive governments
has soaked up billions in government
growth by exploiting cheap renewable have tried to find ways of getting solar
assistance and is running late. No one
electricity and using this to expand panels on even more household rooftops,
seems happy.
its industrial base and export cheap increasing the costs of providing network
hydrogen. Australia remains the world services to manage massive daytime Consumers want simplicity. Energy is
leader in integrating renewables with spikes in distributed solar generation increasingly bolted on to other services
resulting lower electricity emissions. and accelerating the rate at which firm in a time-poor, choice rich world. Banks,
electricity is needed to keep the lights telecoms and insurance companies,
While we are blessed with abundant on as the sun sets. This requires more basically whoever has a commercial
supplies of solar and wind energy, this money to subside large batteries. It’s a relationship with households, have
has not converted into cheap hydrogen virtuous circle of government support. offered new services bundled up
exports and world leading investment
with cheaper energy. Incumbents are
in green steel, cement, manufacturing, Electric vehicles continue to take market
buckling under the pressure as more
electric car making or hydrogen exports. share from ICEs, resulting in a national
nimble or well-resourced competitors
Australia is still a major exporter of subsidy scheme to keep essential petrol
cherry pick the market sweet spots,
natural gas and some high grade stations operating.
leaving them with the bits that are much
metallurgical and thermal coals. There
A decade of promising green collar less commercially attractive and have an
are still no meaningful commercial
jobs and an employment boom has not increasingly uncertain future.
hydrogen exports from Australia. The
materialised. Most new employment is
cost of transporting it is prohibitive.
in services. As the renewables mega-
Like other developed economies, the build slowed, the scale of employment
enduring political fault line in 2030 in electricity supply actually fell, as
remains between affluent, technology- renewables required fewer workers per
embracing climate-firsters and poorer, megawatt hour than fossil fuels and each
more economically vulnerable jobs- coal generator closed.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 64

Mike Nicholls
PARTNER
MAIN SEQUENCE VENTURES

solving the sunset to for shorter time frames and sudden

response, but they are hard to scale.
solve the emissions problem. We need
to get to the point where hydrogen is
sunrise problem and We need a breakthrough in new types being generated by renewable energy
and being stored and then converted
of materials but physics, chemistry and
moving as much of materials are not like software, you can’t back to electricity by a fuel cell to drive

our load as possible to just dial them up overnight and often

the improvements are incremental not
electric motors rather than being burnt.

In Australian rural areas, for example, we

when renewables are exponential; batteries are part of the
have seen the switching over from diesel
solution but it’s going to take more.
generating.” A key part of the solution has come
generators to green hydrogen generated
from renewables for more economical
from the widespread use of hydrogen. electricity at night with zero emissions.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 65

State and the federal government WHAT ARE SOME OF THE NEW SUCCESSFUL For the new entrants, the challenge is
have also become more aware of the TECHNOLOGIES BEHIND THIS 2030 ENERGY more about whether their innovation
flexibility that large-scale pumped SYSTEM? or technology quickly becomes the
hydro can offer. The NSW Government new face of generation and storage
Solar has been the big success story,
has invested billions in pumped hydro and gaining some control over these
particularly in Australia. In 2021,
plants - essentially a large-scale storage distributed generation and storage
there were 2.6 million solar panel
solution that can be released onto the assets. For the old market players, there
grid during the evening to generate installations on people’s roofs and that
are tipping points; they are being slowly
electricity when renewables are trend has continued.
strangled by their old technology and
generating less. We have seen interesting new business models and the capital markets.
developments in solar energy technology. Some of them are already splitting out
Renewable intermittency issues have
One I would highlight is the development those old assets into separate companies
also been addressed through better
of solar film, a flexible thin film that and selling this to the market (there are
energy efficiency, with consumers
moving their consumption away from generates solar energy sandwiched a bunch of climate deniers who will buy
expensive times of the day to when between two sheet of glass and is this) squeezing as much as they can out
renewables generation is at the peak. In installed in buildings. This film could lead to of the assets before they are shut down,
2021, the wholesale prices for electricity net zero carbon glass as it could generate and trying to turn the mothership around
during the middle of a day was already enough electricity in its lifetime to offset as a greener energy business.
dropping fast and, in some states such as the emissions created by its manufacture.
South Australia, dropping down to zero HOW HAVE YOU SEEN TECHNOLOGY
Solar’s success is resulting in new
or sometimes paying consumers to take SKILLS ADAPT TO THE SHIFT IN THE
electricity off the grid. New smart grid challenges. Many households installed ENERGY LANDSCAPE?
technologies and processes have enabled solar panels, for example, but hardly any
installed batteries; they only considered At Main Sequence, we highlight that
consumers to program appliances and
the first step of the renewable energy one of the key challenges for the
machinery to automatically move their
journey - batteries were subeconomic so future is how to enable that next big
consumption to when renewables are
there were only about 200,000 installed intelligence leap, by that we mean
generating the most power and the price
in 2021. Many forecasters had predicted where advances in technology are
is cheaper or even free.
that the cost of these back up energy happening faster than society’s ability
Successes like this have led to the faster batteries would have halved in five years. to adapt. How do we re-educate,
than predicted demise of coal power But building and scaling them is harder, adapt, exploit and protect people for
generation. In 2021, it was already particularly as the availability and cost a new world? In energy, I see two
becoming uneconomic to run coal power of the critical raw battery metals and key success factors - research work
generation at certain times of the day. materials is becoming a real challenge. focused on renewables and the fast
As renewable power generation and implementation of the skills needed
consumption has become more balanced to commercialise and deploy the new
and we got more storage during the
HOW HAS THE ENERGY MARKET STRUCTURE technologies. Australia has always
evening, coal had no escape plan as it
CHANGED AS A RESULT?
had a strong research background;
became uneconomic in the evening - and As we move to an almost decentralised, we are amazing at developing new
their remaining margins were eaten away. distributed generation and storage energy technologies but not so awesome at
system, we are seeing many more start- commercialising them. One of the big
With coal power plants, you can’t just
up and new technology companies in the challenges we have is upskilling and
turn them on and off like a battery. You
market. This has thrown up the classic training new talent to work in this new
need to run them at full speed and if you
innovation dilemma. The questions for the industry and that is proving just as
bring them up and down, it makes them
incumbent energy companies are, should difficult a problem to solve.
very unreliable. Gas fired generation,
we move wholesale into that distributed
however, hasn’t experienced quite the
same issues. Gas power plants are much model, can we get control or ownership
more flexible and can be spooled up and of the assets behind the meter, and if we
down. While renewable generation is still can, what happens to our existing coal
cheaper, natural gas has found an interim powered generators, as we are sacrificing
role in the 2030 energy system firming some of the old revenue to bring in
up the evening cycle. the new?

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 66

Patrick Hartley
LEADER, CSIRO HYDROGEN
INDUSTRY MISSION
CSIRO ENERGY

"In 2030 we’re at

peak energy sector
disruption – and that’s
a good thing...”

Back in 2021 most people were and wind plants and shore-up supply
saying it would take until 2030 for the to meet peak demand. We are also
transformation of the energy sector to seeing a lot of combined wind and solar
even get going, but I have seen huge projects which has really pushed up the
progress. Take transportation, we did capacity of renewable generation. So,
a roadmap for Australia’s hydrogen while it might all be low hanging fruit,
industry back in 2018, and highlighted these higher renewable capacity factors
it as the sector with the best near-term and a clearer pathway for hydrogen are
opportunity for emissions reductions making a real difference.
using hydrogen - now we have fuel cell Hydrogen is becoming the game
heavy vehicles and of course, electric changer. People ask, what’s different
vehicles everywhere. for hydrogen this time around? I say,
the abundant supply of very cheap
Natural gas networks, meanwhile,
renewable energy. In 2030, we are now
have been transformed by hydrogen
getting close to $2/kg of hydrogen mark
much more than we expected given
- even for green hydrogen - due to the
the technoeconomic modelling we did.
ongoing reductions in renewable energy
That industry pushed way harder than
costs, and it will become cheaper still.
we anticipated to get hydrogen into
their pipelines - whole towns are now
running on hydrogen. Natural gas is
now used much more to support solar

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 67

Hydrogen technologies are becoming To make energy innovation an even The regulatory environment for this
more mature. While work still needs greater success we need more - more new energy system is also important
to be done on economies of scale, focus, more time, and better economics - some regulations have needed to be
we are getting there. Brown hydrogen (reductions in renewable energy and removed, others are being adapted,
(produced from natural gas) was hydrogen supply chain costs). The need or invented. We have had to adapt
already widely used in heavy industries for patient, tenacious investment in this environmental protection approvals
like refining fertilizer production, and transition is especially important, as it’s to be more contingent on greenhouse
now blue hydrogen (produced from too easy to get swept up in the hype gas emission intensity in projects, for
decarbonised natural gas) and green and believe it can all be done today. But example. Also, regarding safety, new
hydrogen (produced using renewable perhaps the most important success regulations have had to be put in place
energy or electrolysis from water) are factor is scale, and by that I mean for hydrogen as it’s a hugely different
displacing it. We are also on the way to economies of scale. gas to what we would traditionally
zero emission shipping using hydrogen- pump around our gas networks.
based fuels. The 2020 IMO regulations Take hydrogen, for example. We need
cleaned up shipping fuel to drive to be expanding the market faster, All this cleaner energy technology
emissions reductions; and there are now driving up demand to scale production to development means we are not only
some ammonia and hydrogen powered further drive down costs. While a lot of seeing the electricity grid reimagined
ships in operation. equipment and infrastructure needs only but increasingly, whole industries like
minor alterations, there have been issues chemicals and materials reimagined - it’s
Where will the innovations come from with the scale of the hydrogen rollout exciting. In 2030, the energy sector is at
for hydrogen next? It could be from a as so many appliances - like household peak disruption, that is a good thing and
new use case, like the role it can play boilers - needed to be changed. I’m immensely proud of that.
as a feedstock and in industries like
steel. What is also positive is that more This energy transition also needs a
countries have hydrogen as a key part of different workforce. People who know
their national energy strategies so that’s how to couple batteries with hydrogen,
become quite a stimulus. power, natural gas or refuelling
systems, people who are good at
Other energy innovations which can sector integration and collaboration.
connect to hydrogen are also on the They might be engineers, but if
horizon. Using direct CO2 capture they are, they are a different sort of
from the air is a good example. If engineer; maybe we can call them
that becomes more economic, then energy eco-system integrators?
you’ve opened a whole new area of
low emission fuels and chemicals
development - such as methanol
production. Such innovations
are interesting in sectors where
decarbonisation is harder, so they Dr Patrick Hartley is the leader of CSIRO’s Hydrogen Industry Mission.
can play a role in industries like In this role, he is responsible for developing the strategy and partnerships
petrochemicals, making net zero for a major new national initiative which was launched in May 2021
methanol feedstock for chemicals used which focusses on delivering RD&D to enable the scaleup of Australia’s
in products like adhesives, foams, and domestic and export hydrogen industries. In 2018, he co-led the
solvents, for instance. development of CSIRO’s National Hydrogen Roadmap, and worked
with the Chief Scientist of Australia, Dr Alan Finkel, Leader, CSIRO
Hydrogen Industry Mission on delivering the briefing paper ‘Hydrogen
for Australia’s Future’ which was presented to the Council of Australian
Government’s (COAG) Energy council. This laid the foundations for the
development of Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy, which was
subsequently delivered and adopted by all of Australia’s federal state
and territory governments in November 2019.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 68

“I t’s a very challenging

geopolitical landscape.
Leaders today need to
understand that,
as businesses are
being transformed,
they remain as engaged
with their investors and
consumers as they are
with governments.”
TOM RIDSDILL-SMITH
SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT CLIMATE
WOODSIDE ENERGY

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 69

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 70

The geopolitical energy landscape This is having a knock-on effect on

in 2030 is markedly different from climate politics in other large economies,
Robert J. Johnston previous decades. The biggest change
has been that while the Middle East
but not in the way we originally
predicted. The EU’s more confrontational
is still a major oil and gas producer approach in terms of carbon border
MD ENERGY, CLIMATE & mechanisms and placing tariffs on states
(due to its low cost and low carbon
RESOURCES AND intensity production), the dynamic without appropriate climate policies
EXECUTIVE ADVISOR between the United States (USA), the has motivated countries like Russia and
European Union (EU), China, Russia, China to increase the stringency of their
EURASIA GROUP own greenhouse gas regulations.
and Japan is now less about securing
oil and more about electricity grid The pace of the green transition in most
security and access to those critical countries has, however, been uneven.
minerals needed to support low It has been hard to match job creation in
carbon energy. renewable energy sectors with workers
dislocated from fossil fuel industries
The shift to a greener energy landscape
“The green is resulting in new tensions in countries
like upstream oil and gas production
or production of internal combustion
transition has led producing materials like lithium and
cobalt, which are needed for cathodes
automotives. Also, while the COVID-19
crisis in 2020/21 set conditions for
to new geopolitical and anodes in battery production as
well as platinum group metals and rare
governments to create green stimulus
tensions…” earth elements used in electrolysers for
packages, the impact was temporary,
with people quickly getting back to
hydrogen production. The Democratic
global travel and commuting. The bigger
Republic of Congo, Bolivia, Australia,
change has been where governments
Indonesia and Canada produce the
injected liquidity and stimulus into key
resources but most are still refined
green sectors such as hydrogen or large
and processed in China, which now
battery plants in Europe and China.
dominates the geopolitics of energy
rather than Petro-States like Saudi The transition has been much more
Arabia, Russia or Venezuela, pre- challenging for countries in the
dominant in the 20th century. developing world. Major oil and gas
producers in parts of the Middle East,
China, has continued to grow throughout
North Africa, West Africa, Central Asia,
the decade, has progressed from being
and Latin America, are now searching
one of the largest emitters of greenhouse
for new engines of growth to replace
gasses to mass electrification through
stranded oil reserves and infrastructure.
the rapid scaling of renewable and zero-
Countries that have not had a successful
emissions technology.
transition to a post-petroleum economy
Tensions have also surfaced where are at risk of becoming failed states in
states have imposed carbon border the face of economic crises, corruption,
adjustment mechanisms that and weak political institutions.
essentially tax fossil fuel imports.
Additional geopolitical concerns have
The EU and other mature economies1
also emerged in 2030 around so-called
have advanced their green taxonomy
‘geo-technologies’ which support
and broader sustainability principles,
grid resilience and grid security.
particularly across the financial sector,
Critical infrastructure and integration
while their consumers are increasingly
of electrical grids into broader cloud-
green aware.
based IT systems has created new
vulnerabilities and these are being

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 71

Robert (“RJ”) Johnston returned

in 2018 to lead the firm’s energy
and natural resources practice
after serving as Eurasia Group’s
chief executive officer for five
years. Prior to joining Eurasia
Group, RJ served as managing
director of equity research at
Medley Global Advisors, serving
as the lead analyst for global
energy equities. RJ, in addition,
was a research director at UBS
Warburg Energy and previously
directed internal research teams
at Enron Global Markets.

RJ holds a doctorate in
international relations from
American University, a master’s
degree in political science from
McMaster University, and a
bachelor’s degree in political
studies from Bishop’s University.

exposed by hostile actors, whether Digital verification is increasingly

they are nation states, criminals, or necessary in consumer and industrial
terrorist groups. While distributed transactions to ensure people get the
generation, local small-scale micro grids clean product they think they’re paying for.
and renewables appear more resilient,
they are also creating new openings for It’s a very challenging geopolitical
attacks at a more local level. landscape. Leaders today need to
understand that, as businesses are
Data has become an important feature being transformed, they remain
of the green energy landscape and a as engaged with their investors
growth industry has developed around and consumers as they are with
tracing the source of a commodity. For governments. These new energy supply
example, it's important to show that a chains need particular attention - not
fossil fuel like natural gas was processed only on their efficiencies or on their
with no flaring, or that a raw material has new products and services but also
been mined at a site with responsible on their wider ESG footprint; climate
tailings management and been produced impact, human rights, gender and racial
using green power. There has been rapid diversity and similar considerations. It is
growth in data to verify company ESG important to be aware of the impact of
claims, which they need to maintain their the energy transformation in its entirety.
market share and access to capital.

1 For example countries such as Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Republic of
Korea, the United Kingdom, the United States, as well as the European Union.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 72

Sally-Ann Williams “Energy industry innovation is growing; it could have

a huge economic impact.”
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
CICADA INNOVATIONS
In an innovation focused company I am really excited by the terminology
like Cicada, we actively support being used in the energy technology space
technology ventured in many today, which reflects this massive change.
sectors like MedTech, agrifood tech, Take the concept of collective energy,
SpaceTech, quantum and more. applied in such ways as through the
Today in 2030, we are increasingly operation of a shared community micro
grid. Through concepts like this we are
supporting EnergyTech, a focus
seeing a lot more novel ideas both around
which only started to emerge as a
As the CEO of Cicada Innovations energy systems, including the reinvention
critical industry around a decade ago.
Sally-Ann Williams leads of how the micro grid may operate with
Investor engagement in the energy
Australia’s pioneering deep tech new distributed, democratised, and shared
sector is now massive and make no
energy generation and storage. There has
incubator building companies mistake, they’re investing for the been a lot of focus on how communities
solving the world’s most economic return they will get from can be supplied with renewables while
pressing problems through
their investments coming to market also being self-sustaining and allowing
science and engineering. Cicada
as well as the impact. better energy sharing.
Innovations has nurtured
hundreds of visionary deep We know that science has been moving Another term I like is elastic - we are
tech innovators to validate, into the green energy space for a long thinking about energy in a more elastic,
commercialise and scale high time. But we needed business drivers or flexible, way. For example, asking
impact technologies globally and commitments from boards and from ourselves what the role of artificial
across MedTech, HealthTech, C-suite executives to invest and put their intelligence in energy is, and how it can
AgTech, FoodTech, Clean Energy, money where their mouth is. The C-suite help us: not only as consumers, but in
AI, Manufacturing 4.0 and more. needed to understand this transition terms of influencing our behaviour and
is not only about environmental and harnessing the flexibility of the system
Prior to joining Cicada
social governance (ESG) and a licence to optimise the whole grid, with better
Innovations she spent over 12
to operate, but also about business storage, availability and capacity
years at Google as an Executive
continuity - their long-term survival as for everyone.
Program Manager on the
a company.
engineering team leading This mindset of more collective and
work on R&D collaborations Over the past decade, there has been elastic energy systems is transforming
with universities, startup a lot that has emerged from a green the way we live. What is emerging,
and entrepreneurship energy technology perspective which I particularly in countries building new
engagement and pioneering think is exciting. Instead of being on the cities and new towns, are different
work on CS & STEM education fringe - something that only a few people designs and builds for energy
including building world first did with solar panels on the roof - we infrastructure, roads, buildings, public
collaborations delivering are seeing the widespread take up of lighting, transportation and public
national transformation. solar and wind power. We’re also seeing infrastructure. It is all low carbon, flexible
batteries with a much longer and more and more energy efficient. We are now
efficient lifespan. And our technical know- thinking about energy in a fundamentally
how has improved across newer energy different way.
sources like wave power and geothermal
technologies, and energy storage None of this has happened easily.
solutions like hydrogen. It needed visionary leadership, and
governments have played a big role in that
- though not every government! We also
needed to have a greater understanding of

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 73

how to develop a greener energy system can be deployed, which might not only In Australia, we unfortunately have been
with more awareness of the economics give us more flexibility but can build this playing catch up in R&D associated with
and costs of scaling it. This is imperative resilience and reliability. energy technology. So we would be crazy
as the impact flows back to companies not to run after it faster - it’s the next
investing in research and development We shouldn’t shy away from difficult economic boom. While we are known
(R&D) for new sources of renewable tasks; we need to continue to lean for exporting our minerals, there is no
energies and technologies. into them because new technologies reason we can’t be global exporters of
can provide greener energy solutions green energy - renewables, technologies,
I think we still need to think more about and prosperity for people and for the new energy systems and engineers. It’s
resilience, reliability, and efficiencies planet. It’s not an ‘either or’, it’s more a huge driver of long term, sustainable,
in the energy system. Guiding of a ‘yes and’ opportunity. Take artificial high value job creation. You just need to
people to make informed choices is intelligence and machine learning - that’s show people a clearer pathway and better
important, whether it’s about advancing a whole lot of jobs and skills opportunities articulate the associated benefits. That’s
independent energy, creating more right there. The impact of having policies not only where the magic of innovation
awareness of energy resilience (the that are visionary and transformative, happens; it’s also where the magic of
impact greater demand has on the that meet sustainability goals and business profitability happens.
grid) or a better understanding of high delivers reliable energy, can flow through
energy consumption in industry and to these jobs and opportunities - from
supply chains. There will be so many pure research through to technology
things we haven’t thought of yet that commercialisation and deployment.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 74

Stephanie Unwin
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
HORIZON POWER

As Chief Executive Officer

of Horizon Power, Stephanie
Unwin leads a 500 strong
team of energy professionals
to deliver power to some
of Western Australia’s
most remote and regional
communities. Under her
leadership Horizon Power is
transforming the WA regional
energy landscape in an
increasingly decentralised
delivery model.

Stephanie is passionate
about collaboration,
inclusion and diversity
to build an engaged and
inspired workforce. Her
ability to facilitate change here-and-now outcome. The push
on a foundation of safety is came increasingly from mainstream
delivering Horizon Power’s “Dealing with the shareholders who collectively
vision of innovative customer
choices, reduced costs and
problems of renewable acknowledged that our heritage, our
rivers and our natural environment
cleaner, greener energy
solutions for the future
intermittency gave us a has standing and the right to exist

through reducing Horizon technology gift for in a sustainable manner. Having a

social licence to operate moved from
Power’s carbon footprint, and
investing in new technologies
the planet.” a nice-to-have collection of words to
fundamental principles that led to
such as hydrogen. actual decision-making on the ground.
If we do not embrace and address
climate change, then we are only Hydrogen was a technology gift that
going to be takers of disaster rather emerged as a game changer for the
planet. It was born from necessity on how
than makers of the future. Looking
to a create a cleaner energy source that
back, significant progress has
also solved longer and deeper - seasonal,
been made over the past decade,
weekly, not just four hours or so - storage
with decarbonisation pathways no
challenges. A great leap in innovation
longer a novel 2050 ambition but a

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 75

occurred to take hydrogen into the energy stranded product that no major economy - the customer rooftops - and can
space, for it to become an “un-locker” wants to buy due to its carbon impact. also orchestrate and make use of the
of fossil fuel-based industry processing. intermittency solutions in hydrogen
The cost reduction of producing hydrogen Within the utilities, technology was and battery storage.
gave it the right to play in the energy both the platform to orchestrate a
system and heavy industry embraced it. complex multidirectional system and Commercial enterprises are happily
In addition, just like the revolution that saw a mechanism to operate and maintain creating their own microgrids - often
solar scale up, costs plummet and the assets. For our employees it has bundling water and municipal service
take-up on solar PV on rooftops explode, enabled us to coordinate and optimise as part of their microgrid offering.
so too did the option in technology to energy participants while real-time fault This bundling - given the provision of
harness excess energy and make it response systems, robotics and remote water is at most times the biggest
available for use when needed most. service delivery have meant our crews consumer of energy in these remote
are now firmly behind the joy stick, not and regional towns - enables better load
The duck curve1 was a thing of the driving for hundreds of kilometres to management, optimising the outcome
past, and the system planners could manually identify and rectify a lightning for the system with each customer
breathe again. strike to a line. playing their part and reducing their
costs as a result. We have developed
On a much bigger scale, we saw the One of the features of the world in 2030 products that make this fair - even
same technology gift enable us to is that we see and hear everything if the rooftop is not owned - and the
radically decarbonise and use our through data capture and our crews community shares in a virtual communal
competitive advantage in vast scale and workforce are very digitally savvy. rooftop that lowers their bills. Hydrogen
solar and wind resources to create a Our living labs tell us everything we is playing its part using excess solar or
burgeoning green steel industry onshore need to know about the demand-supply wind for an always available fuel cell.
in Australia. We moved from just mining equation, the weather, the availability
iron ore to making iron and steel. This of assets and how to best use these so As we consider where we are in 2030
bold audacious move to create a green our rooftops go first and maximise their and the way forward, Australia did
steel industry, took ambition on the part contribution to the energy mix. emerge from a slower start on the world
of our political and industry leaders, stage to be a de-carbonised industry and
supported by the enabling energy The regulatory environment had to clean energy leader - it chose to embrace
system infrastructure and our traditional reinvent itself. The 2021 environment the gift of technology and couple this with
landowners - with a focus on moving to was dysfunctional and at odds with the its vast resources in the green economy
fairer growth in a decarbonised economy. innovation needed to drive the right for a lasting competitive advantage. The
capital decisions. Regulators shifted gear successful energy transition involved
Underpinning this green transition has and enabled technology expenditure to placing bets on numerous technologies
been a much greater use of technology. push through and drive infrastructure to and successfully transferring large
It provided insight into all the moving be upgraded, changed and developed for parts of the workforce from the carbon
parts, a real-time understanding of what the new economy. It was refreshing to economy to non-carbon sectors.
was going on, where the energy was see the regulator expand the forward-
available and where it was needed. looking economic efficiency arguments In 2030, the place Australia plays on
to consider technology solutions the world stage is something to be
In industry, we took the best of the for managing mass disruption, and proud of - a climate change leader, an
world’s technology into processing and distribution level generation with EV’s advocate for our heritage and precious
created an outcome that started a new back to the grid. natural environment, an industrial
industrial wave in Australia – traditionally player in harmony with a shared, clean
hard to abate sectors had the imperative One of the smaller, but none the less environment where we are careful
to re-look at their opportunities and the remarkable achievements, in the decade where we place our footprint and smart
technology to make change. Progress is how we have moved our remote in how we do it.
was hard at the start of the decade but communities from reliance largely
a concerted worldwide push just made on conventional centralised diesel to
it non-negotiable by 2030. Those that their own green and smart microgrids.
stood back are wrestling with the issue of These work with their natural assets

1 A graph of power production over the course of a day showing the timing imbalance between peak demand and renewable energy production.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 76

WHAT ROLE HAS THE GAS INDUSTRY PLAYED IN Blue hydrogen is being produced at
THE TRANSITION TOWARDS NET ZERO OVER THE a substantially lower cost than green
Stephen Harty LAST DECADE? hydrogen, which has accelerated
the uptake of hydrogen in Australia.
The gas industry has played a
Hydrogen is being widely adopted as
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER significant role in reducing global
the zero-emission fuel of choice where
carbon emissions in the lead-up to
GLADSTONE LNG (GLNG) an electrical solution is not viable.
2030. After the initial industry focus of
reducing its own Scope 1 and Scope
2 emissions, the industry turned its
HOW HAS CCS TECHNOLOGY CONTRIBUTED
attention to Scope 3 emissions -
TO THE ENERGY TRANSITION – IS IT NOW
COMMERCIALLY VIABLE?
those emissions generated by the end
consumer and their products. This was CCS technology has been
very relevant for the LNG industry as around for a long time; what has
most of its emissions are defined as changed over the past decade
Scope 3. has been the development of the
"In 2030, a premium regulatory framework necessary
The gas industry has contributed
LNG product is one significantly as the key transition fuel
to commercialise CCS. The pivotal
moment for CCS was when CCS was
offsetting Scope 1, on the path to lowering emissions by
displacing coal in power generation,
approved as an ACCU methodology,
meaning that CCS operators would
2 and 3 (end of use) displacing liquid fuels in transport, receive an ACCU for every tonne
emissions through and firming renewable power. In
addition, the commercialisation of
of carbon dioxide injected into
CCS. This provided the commercial
CCS; GLNG is aiming to CCS technology has been crucial incentive for the large-scale
in providing high quality offsets for
provide that service…" sectors whose emissions are harder
expansion of CCS in Australia.

to eliminate, such as airlines and One highly successful CCS project

steel mills. has been the Moomba CCS project in
South Australia. Santos and its project
The transition to net zero continues partner Beach Energy are now storing
to rely heavily on the transfer of gas 1.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide
sector expertise. CCS is also a good per year in this project. The project
example here. The gas industry has a capacity for up to 20 million
has developed this technology and tonnes annually across the Cooper oil
championed its development and and gas basin. The Moomba project is
acceptance. This was made possible one of the lowest-cost CCS projects in
by oil and gas industry scientists the world.
who used their understanding
of depleted reservoirs to enable LNG projects that have access to
their use for carbon sequestration, high quality carbon offsets like CCS
process engineers that employ the have strong ESG credentials and
technology to capture carbon dioxide can achieve a premium for their LNG
from combustion exhaust streams, sales. CCS operators have themselves
and materials engineers who manage generated alternate revenue streams
corrosion issues in carbon dioxide and created new jobs from offering
transportation. CCS services to third parties, and
adjacent industries. The CCS industry
The gas industry has also facilitated has also unlocked the blue hydrogen
the growth of carbon neutral fuels, market and has positioned it for
notably the growth of blue hydrogen. massive growth.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 77

Stephen Harty joined GLNG

Operations Pty. Ltd. (GLNG)
as Chief Executive Officer in
2019 and has responsibility
for the overall management,
safety and operation of GLNG’s
assets, which include 7.8 mtpa
of LNG liquefaction capacity
and over 500km of high-
pressure gas pipelines.

Stephen has over 25 years of

experience in the oil and gas
industry. He commenced his
career with Mobil Oil Australia
holding engineering and
management positions in the
downstream organisation. In
as a result supplies have been struggling 2001 Stephen began his career
WHAT DOES THE LNG INDUSTRY LOOK LIKE in LNG when he joined the Ras
IN 2030? to keep up with demand globally. As
Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas Co
a result a growing proportion of LNG
Australia, as a major LNG exporter, (RasGas) in Qatar.
supply is being produced in OPEC+
continues to be an LNG price taker countries. Stephen subsequently joined
- accepting prevailing market prices. ConocoPhillips and initially
Its LNG exports have created an Demand for gas and LNG generally worked on the development
interconnectivity between the remains strong; the bulk of demand of the Qatargas3 LNG project.
international and the Australian East comes from countries with net zero Stephen later transferred
Coast domestic market. The Australian targets, particularly in Asia. China is to the United Kingdom with
east coast LNG industry continues to still the largest LNG consumer in the ConocoPhillips where he held
receive pressure from lobby groups world, along with Japan and South various management positions
with sometimes opposing demands, Korea, and increasingly India. These in the Europe Commercial
with climate activists saying the industry countries are predominately using organisation, including Carbon
should never produce another molecule LNG to reduce emissions as they Portfolio Director, Director
of gas, while domestic industry lobby transition away from coal. European Market Analysis and
groups say the industry should be Manager Global LNG Trading. In
The story of the gas industry in this 2015 he returned to Australia to
producing more and limiting the export
decade has been one of an industry lead the marketing organisation
of gas.
stepping up to the challenge of at Australia Pacific LNG.
Cost pressures, regulatory challenges the energy transition. It has been
Stephen holds a Bachelor
in new developments and long-term progressive in achieving emissions
of Engineering (Hons) from
demand uncertainty have led new gas reductions and building its ESG
the University of Ballarat
exploration to be substantially reduced. credentials. ESG constraints in
Australia, a Master of Business
These days producers are focussing on developing new supplies have stifled
Administration from Deakin
developing their existing resource base and delayed development, resulting University Australia, and is
as efficiently as possible. in elevated LNG market prices at a graduate of the Australian
times. The companies succeeding are Institute of Company Directors.
Gas industry economics have also those who have maintained a strong
changed. “Financial activism” has made ESG strategy, enabling them attract
it more challenging to attract investment investment, and to not only sustain their
into the industry. It means that gas production base but also grow their
investment has been constrained and business with carbon neutral products.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 78

Ted Surette
ENERGY TRANSITION ADVISOR
AND NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

Ted Surette is a Senior Energy

Transition Advisor and Non-
Executive Director at Providence
Asset Group - an investment
firm developing a regional
community solar and hydrogen
storage portfolio. He advises on
clean energy technologies and
strategic growth opportunities.
Ted was a partner with KPMG for
33 years and was most recently
the Head of KPMG’s Global
Power & Utility Sector. He is
”The last decade has been a call to action
a Board Advisory Member of – how to solve the net zero puzzle…”
the Hydrogen Energy Research
Centre - a collaboration with In Australia, wind generation has
WHAT HAVE BEEN THE BIGGEST CHANGES IN
University of New South Wales
THE ENERGY MARKET OVER THE LAST DECADE? further accelerated. Back in 2021,
and Providence Asset Group.
while there was already a strong
As the energy market transitions
onshore wind industry across all
toward net zero, there has been a
states, offshore wind generation was
significant decline in sector emissions.
in its nascency; since then, we have
This is primarily due to the greening
seen exponential growth in offshore
of the electricity generation sector, or,
wind, primarily on the east coast of
more specifically, the decline of coal
Australia. Australia has also continued
fired power generation. In Australia,
to expand its solar generation
the alignment of federal government
industry, meaning today, it still has
net zero ambitions with those of the
one of the highest rates of per capita
Australian states and the energy
rooftop solar generation in the world.
industry accelerated the transition.
Over the past ten years, large scale
This situation, where government,
utility solar has extended to regional
businesses and consumers all
areas across the nation, facilitated by
supported a common goal and created
the creation of multiple renewable
the actions needed to get there,
energy zones (REZ’s).
means that faster progress has been
made during this decade toward
decarbonising the energy system
than any other so far.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 79

In addition, new investment in energy Companies have also really taken HOW WELL HAS AUSTRALIA EXECUTED THIS
storage (bigger and flexible batteries, advantage of the declining costs ENERGY TRANSITION?
pumped hydro and even hydrogen) of new and emerging clean energy
Australia has experienced one of
as well as in new transmission technologies. As businesses became
the fastest and most radical energy
infrastructure, means today, Australia more familiar with their cost and
transitions of any country. This was
has a world class distributed energy value stack and what it meant for
made possible by its abundance of
network which operates flexibly them to make those investments,
sun, wind and critical minerals, but not
and efficiently. More importantly, it they have employed the latest
to be underestimated is the success
provides affordable, reliable and clean battery technology, machine learning
of its clean energy collaborations. The
energy to all residents and businesses and other artificial intelligence (AI)
Australian federal government and
across the nation. technologies to support greater
states have worked well with business
energy efficiencies and carbon
and academia, supporting, developing
WHAT IMPACT HAS THE ENERGY TRANSITION footprint reductions in their
and scaling energy innovation and
MADE ON BUSINESSES? WHICH BUSINESSES operations.
technology. For example, the creation
ARE DOING WELL AND WHY? Early movers in battery technology, of hydrogen hubs across the country
Companies have now moved in particular, have done well. These have spearheaded innovation to
beyond ambition and pledges and were primarily governments and produce, export and use hydrogen
are implementing specific actions energy companies - one of the first across a diversity of use cases.
towards net zero - decarbonising big batteries to support renewable
These clean energy collaborations
through better energy efficiency generation, was the Hornsdale
and consortia are helping to solve
measures and using more firmed and battery in South Australia - which
the puzzle of how to best achieve net
flexible renewable power generation. was enabled and financed largely by
zero. Today, Australia is a world leader
Australia today still has a vibrant the South Australian government.
in distributed clean energy. World
resource-based economy but has Back in 2017, this was the largest
leader status means decarbonising
fast tracked the use of dispatchable lithium-ion battery in the world and is
domestic industrial sectors such as
renewable power generation in heavy still providing essential grid-support
heavy manufacturing, progressing
industries such as mining, which is services today. This trend continues;
new sectors like carbon capture and
now mostly electrified. large advanced emission reduction
sequestration, hydrogen, and green
technology investments continue
As ESG targets moved centre stage, steel, while also becoming a major
to be assisted by partnerships with
organisations better understood green commodity and technology
government and the scale of these
the decisions they needed to make. exporter. That is how you action for
projects further supports innovation
As companies translated their ESG net zero.
and technology cost reductions.
purpose and commitments into
actual business strategy, in 2030, Also, as Scope 3 emissions targets
it is fully integrated into day-to-day were actioned, many companies
business operations. Some of the focused on how to make their supply
larger Australian companies in the chains more efficient and transparent.
2020’s did this by aligning their ESG As companies looked further
climate metrics - based on objective downstream and decarbonising end
science-based targets - to executive use consumer products and services
compensation. Others adopted the became a critical focus area, they have
many external stakeholder reporting been able to address how they can
frameworks, firstly across the breadth transform their whole supply chains to
of their sustainability portfolio, and perform at net zero.
then to the whole of their business.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 80

WHAT HAS BEEN THE FINANCIAL MARKET The legal system has also played
RESPONSE TO THE ENERGY TRANSITION a key role. Back in the early 2020s
Tim Buckley BY 2030? there were landmark legal cases,
including in Holland and Australia,
The financial risks of climate change
which enacted that governments and
DIRECTOR OF ENERGY FINANCE have played a huge part in redefining
energy companies owed a fiduciary
STUDIES, AUSTRALASIA attitudes in global financial markets.
duty of care to young people to not
Over the last 10 years, weather-related
INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY disasters have been pivotal in changing
cause physical harm from climate
ECONOMICS AND FINANCIAL change. These cases took evidence
investment behaviour. Governments
from the Intergovernmental Panel
ANALYSIS (IEEFA) realised the extreme cost of inaction,
on Climate Change to stop the
while high carbon emitting companies
expansion of the fossil fuels industry,
understood that they could see swathes
recognising that their decisions would
of their operations become uninvestable
have consequences for the future
and uninsurable. Without insurance,
generations. Judges decided that, in
business activity is virtually impossible.
"Capitalism has been In financial services, these changes
the absence of any leadership from
politicians, they would institute court-
redefined – companies started to gain traction back in 2021, imposed leadership predicated on

who destroy the following the former Bank of England

Governor, Mark Carney’s net zero
intergenerational equity.

environment find it very emissions finance alliance. This was a WHAT FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS OR
pledge by over 160 institutions, with INITIATIVES HAVE INFLUENCED CLEAN
hard to operate." $88 trillion in assets, to steer the global ENERGY INVESTMENT DURING THIS DECADE?
economy towards net zero emissions
The most impactful has been the
and a 1.5 degrees C limit. In 2030, net
emergence of the now universal price
Tim Buckley is the Director zero goals are entrenched across all
for carbon. Back in 2015-20, a globally
of Energy Finance Studies, mainstream financial sectors. accepted high carbon price seemed
Australia/South Asia at the
fanciful - particularly here in Australia,
Institute for Energy Economics The energy transformation intensified
where the mere idea of it was politically
and Financial Analysis. Tim has the risk of stranded assets for fossil
toxic and a repeated Prime Minister
30 years of financial markets fuel companies. Today, many younger
killer. The EU introducing first their
experience, including as a investors haven’t even heard of some
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and
top-rated analyst and head of of the oil companies; they have fallen
then the carbon border adjustment
research with Citigroup and as out of the top indices and headed into
mechanism in the 2020s changed
co-founder of Arkx Investment terminal decline. This is not true for all
everything; this EU and US border tax on
Management, a global energy companies. Some transitioned high carbon imports meant companies
cleantech startup. fast; with change led by a new CEO, throughout the world had to reassess
chair or board, like the CEO of BP, their global supply chains. Now in
Bernard Looney, who announced 2030, it's the global norm that we have
a radical climate alignment back in a carbon price of $150/tonne and it
2020 on his appointment. Strong has been one of the best performing
independent leaders implemented new commodity indices.
stakeholder engagement policies which
were open about the company’s core Another important change was earlier
business having no future. They were this decade when both the EU and the
brave enough to say: "we are in terminal USA mandated that key development
decline, we will clean up the mess we banks cease funding fossil fuels. The
spent over 50 years creating, and we only subsidised funding for fossil fuel
won’t just fob off onto someone else the development came from Chinese
rehabilitation liabilities our firm created." banks. But even this has been in decline

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 81

modern slavery was back in 2021, and

tobacco the decade before that. What
was once niche is now fundamental
to good corporate governance, with
companies required to report under the
Task Force on Climate-related Financial
Disclosures as a pre-requisite to
accessing global capital markets.

WHAT IS THE ROLE OF ACTIVISTS IN THIS

NEW ENERGY WORLD OF 2030?
In 2030, environmentalists aren't
actively campaigning on climate change
anymore, they have stopped locking
themselves to buildings and heavy
machinery. Boards gave in when their
young staff would just leave to join
the protesters, and the police were
too busy locking up corrupt politicians
caught by the Federal ICAC to worry
about protesters like the now Swedish
in recent years with China’s renewed decade that Australia became the
Prime Minister Greta Thunberg working
world leadership in clean energy and world’s largest exporter of seaborne
for the public good. Companies have
its relaunch back in 2022 of its Green traded green ammonia and green iron
had to stop and listen, with social
Belt and Road Initiative. The G-BRI ore, and soon to be the largest in green
licence becoming critical to their right
has been a huge success, helping hydrogen, as the “blue” hydrogen figleaf
to operate once we had the redefining
developing countries across the Middle has been retired as the desperate last
of capitalism that McKinsey called
East, Eurasia and Africa and allowing roll of the dice by the fossil gas industry.
for back in 2020. In 2030, you cannot
two billion people to leapfrog the now
operate a company which destroys the
obsolete fossil fuel energy system and HOW HAVE BANKS AND RATING AGENCIES environment or doesn’t treat workers of
transition to cleaner energy centred on DEVELOPED SOLUTIONS AND RISK all ages, genders and races respectfully -
rooftop solar, batteries, electric scooters ASSESSMENTS FOR CLEANER ENERGY? and in many countries you cannot legally
and microgrids.
The financial community was asleep build new fossil fuel infrastructure
In Australia, the government and at the wheel in the early days of the due to the now legally mandated
financial community have had to energy transition. While trillions of ‘intergenerational equity’ protections.
introduce policies and take risks to dollars of capital were at risk from Companies have realised their brands
catch up with the clean energy leaders. stranded assets, the central banks were bound up with their workforces’
Australia was a clean energy laggard, in the early 2020s seemed to accept values; sustainability, respect for the
sitting in the naughty corner along with that the large financial risks just had to environment and operating within our
a few recalcitrant Middle Eastern and be accommodated. The major rating planetary boundaries.
Latin American countries. Change came agencies were buying up independent
with the states selling out of fossil fuels ESG and climate risk analysis firms to
and new federal legislation making it get skills in evaluating climate risk on
illegal for fossil fuel companies to do property, businesses, fires, flooding and
government lobbying, “greenwash” satellite tracking of methane leaks. But
and/or to divest their way out of the it then took a long time for that analysis
clean energy challenge. This gave many to be integrated into their financial
of Australia’s leading companies the products and indices. Today, climate
confidence to invest in new energy. change and clean energy are an integral
We forget that it was only in this last part of financial risk assessment, as

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 82

Tim Nelson
EXECUTIVE GENERAL
MANAGER, ENERGY MARKETS
IBERDROLA AUSTRALIA

"In 2030, politicians are

looking back with a
sense of confusion
- how did something
based on science
reliant upon emissions intensive fuels
become such a HOW DID THE MAJOR CHANGES IN ENERGY
MARKETS HAPPEN? to develop alternative industries.
political football? " Climate change shifted from being an
This has allowed energy businesses
in Australia to develop clean energy
emotive political issue to a more risk- supply chains and create new value.
based issue backed up by science. What Australia has seized the opportunity to
facilitated this shift was many countries transition an economy which derived
directly experiencing its impacts such nearly half of its export revenue from
as huge wildfires and flooding - it emissions intensive commodities to
meant clean energy rose to the top of one which is now based on hydrogen,
government and board agendas. green metals, and in general has a
Energy market changes were also cleaner industrial sector.
consumer driven. People were making
clean energy into a lifestyle choice, HOW HAS INVESTMENT IN THE ENERGY
they wanted to minimise their own SECTOR CHANGED?
environmental footprint. Solar PV, The energy transition has seen a huge
battery storage, electric vehicles, shift in technology investment towards
autonomous vehicles were all novel cleaner energy. The disruption in the
in previous decades but have now electricity sector in the late 2010s was
become mainstream as consumer already a leading indicator of what was
interest in them grew. to come - clean energy technologies
Australia, like many countries, changed becoming cheaper. Technology has
its politics and policies as pressure allowed consumers, both large and
around climate issues became small, to embrace their own solutions.
more pronounced. The government The early proliferation of solar PV was
developed a “just” transition policy, matched this decade by the adoption of
supporting communities previously behind the meter storage and behind

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 83

the meter smart technology. This has of clean energy solutions rather than accumulation of investment made
allowed the consumer to embrace their having one or two large assets. This in their skills, and companies need
own technological solutions behind portfolio approach gives companies to make sure that the best return on
their meters, allowing them to better a better platform to explore a wider that investment is made. The pace
manage their energy consumption and set of new energy technologies and of energy industry change means
better employ the diversity of energy solutions with many now routinely companies must continue to develop
choices. Big data and machine learning using big data and machine learning to strategies for reshaping this workforce,
also means smaller retail businesses build their own models. Utilities today not just annually - such as determining
can tailor their solutions more actively to understand and manage the risks of headcount and labour costs - but in the
individual consumers. This has created this energy market much better than longer term. Continually investing in
a retail energy market which is much they had done previously. their workforce so they can best adapt
more competitive, and an environment to this industry as it rapidly changes is
where consumers are far more satisfied WHAT DOES THE ENERGY WORKPLACE LOOK now critical.
with their utility provision than they LIKE IN 2030?
were 20 or 30 years ago.
The COVID-19 crisis of the early 2020s
Clean energy has also transformed provided the springboard for people
energy industry notions of investment to reassess how work gets done and
and value. In previous decades, even it has resulted in a lot more people
Tim Nelson is the Executive
the most emission intensive projects working from home. In 2030, there is
General Manager, Energy Markets
could still find financing, as people a greater acceptance by employers at Infigen Energy (now Iberdrola
had a view that they were necessary that people can work remotely Australia) where he oversees
to keep the lights on. Over time, as permanently which has created a the optimisation of Iberdrola
the stranded asset risk became so more diverse workforce and is leading Australia’s portfolio of energy
material, write downs were common. to better shareholder returns. production, energy pricing, risk
As the image of the industry became management, customer sales
Today, this new hybrid workforce is not
more tarnished and the risk of stranded and various other channels to
only based in the inner cities but also in
assets grew, it also became very market. Previously, Tim has
the more remote parts of Australia. This
important for businesses to better worked for the Australian Energy
has led to a shift in government planning Market Commission (AEMC) and
integrate their social licence to operate
- instead of making big cities the focus, was the Chief Economist of AGL
- in order to maximise shareholder
more regional communities are being Energy and led the company's
value, energy businesses needed
supported and developed. This all goes public policy advocacy and its
to address the societal issues most
some way to alleviate the chronic sustainability and ESG strategy.
material and relevant to them. Before,
underemployment, income, and wealth
energy businesses were often chasing He is also a member of the
inequality we have seen across Australia
what they thought was the lowest cost Westpac Stakeholder Advisory
and in many other countries too.
production, but it was only the lowest Council and is on the Research
cost for the proportion of energy that The energy transition has also Committee for the Centre for
the asset delivered, not the lowest cost provided a platform for the industry Policy Development.
for them overall. to think about career evolution and Tim is an Associate Professor
upskilling. Many workers involved in at Griffith University and
Energy investment today is smaller
the thermal generation industry have holds a PhD in economics for
and is creating new business models.
been retrained through a focus on which he earned a Chancellors
The ability to raise $50 million for a new
‘just transition’ and have found work in Doctoral Research Medal and
solar plant or a wind farm is easier than
some of the new innovative industries a first-class honours degree in
raising $2-3 billion for a new thermal
in and around clean tech. economics. Tim is also a fellow
plant. Also, as the renewable storage
of the Governance Institute (FGIA
industry develops, it is supporting What the transition has ultimately done and FCIS) and a graduate of the
investments in batteries or small zero is redefine an energy workforce. A Australian Institute of Company
emission fuel turbines and fuel cells, person working for an energy company Directors (GAICD).
allowing companies to build portfolios is not only an individual, but also an

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 84

Tom Ridsdill-Smith
SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT CLIMATE
WOODSIDE ENERGY

As Senior Vice President

Climate, Dr Tom Ridsdill-Smith
is leading Woodside’s approach
to climate change and has
oversight of the initiatives
Woodside is pursuing to limit
emissions and prepare for a
low carbon future. Prior to this,
Tom worked in a variety of
roles at Woodside including VP
Geoscience, VP Science, Chief The 2020s have been a decade of This hasn’t been easy and we’ve
Digital Officer, Chief Scientist action on climate change. Against had to pull on every technological,
and Chief Geophysicist. a backdrop of increasing energy political and financial lever we have
demand, driven by a global population to achieve these gains. Governments
Before joining Woodside in early
that has grown by 750 million and companies took early action in the
2000, Tom worked for 5 years in
people and the huge expansion of 2020s to reduce emissions, focussing
airborne geophysics at World
on practical solutions that could be
Geoscience. the middle class in developing Asia,
rapidly implemented to meet the specific
countries have started to make major
Tom is also an Adjunct Professor needs of their economies and markets,
progress towards decarbonising the
of Physics at the University of breaking the deadlock from the previous
world’s energy system. There is now
Western Australia. decade created by the effort to seek the
increasing optimism in the global
“perfect” global pathway and wait for a
community that the goals of the Paris “silver bullet” technology.
agreement are within reach.
Massive investment in solar and wind
energy has resulted in these technologies
“I n 2030, the natural now delivering over 10% of global energy

gas industry still has supply, a nearly five-fold increase over the
decade. But that still means that other
a lot to offer…” options are critical to supply most of the
remaining energy needs of the planet.

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 85

Most importantly, global coal use is finally of battery storage in 2030. Natural Gas liquidity needed for carbon removal to
on the decline and this has had the most from LNG continues to supply towns and be considered as essential in the world’s
significant impact of all the levers in cities without access to pipeline supply and decarbonisation efforts and to attract the
reducing global emissions as well as in has evolved to also allow smaller parcel- significant investment needed to deliver
improving local air quality. In the place of size deliveries to enhance its flexibility to it at scale.
coal, we’ve seen the growth of a range of respond to market demand.
Oil and gas companies have played an
low carbon options including renewable
Natural gas is considered in many important role in the energy transition
electricity, natural gas and nuclear power.
countries, particularly in Asia, to have a over the last decade. Their skillsets in
Low carbon hydrogen and ammonia long-term role in the energy mix in the large-scale energy production have
are also starting to play a minor but 2030s and 2040s as the LNG becomes proved invaluable in the establishment of
important role replacing traditional “grey increasingly decarbonised across the a global hydrogen and ammonia supply
hydrogen” in industrial applications, entire value chain. Emitting only half the chain. The energy transition has needed
as well as in newly created markets in amount of carbon dioxide per unit of investment on a scale never before seen
power and heavy transport. This includes energy compared to coal, natural gas has in history, and oil and gas companies
both “green” hydrogen generated from proved economically attractive to couple have been significant contributors to this
renewables with no direct emissions and with carbon-removal technology, in order too, redirecting their significant funding
“blue” hydrogen generated from natural to produce produce a carbon neutral capacity from oil and gas projects into
gas with carbon capture and storage used energy source. building profitable low carbon energy and
to create a carbon-neutral process. carbon-removal businesses that will thrive
Expanding the global Paris-aligned carbon
in the coming decades as the world steers
Looking forward, the demand for budget by creating a much larger carbon-
relentlessly towards Paris success.
hydrogen and ammonia is going to removal market over the 2020s has
skyrocket as the pilot-scale projects allowed countries more flexibility in their
from the 2020s expand into full-scale energy choices in the 2030s. For example,
production in the 2030s to supply rapidly Japan and South Korea, with geographies
maturing energy markets in Asia. Much of and climates that limited their ability to
the hydrogen and ammonia supply to Asia expand wind and solar, plan to continue
is likely to come from large-scale export to use natural gas together with carbon-
projects in Australia and the Middle East removal services to meet their energy
that have access to cheap renewables needs and their ambitious decarbonisation
for green hydrogen, as well as natural targets over the next decade. Again,
gas feedstock and carbon capture and looking to keep decarbonisation options
storage (CCS) for blue. open rather than narrowing them down
has proved key.
Natural gas remains an important part of
the energy mix in 2030. Countries with The growth of the global carbon-
existing natural gas and LNG infrastructure removal market in the 2020s covered
are keen to continue to utilise it, allowing a range of technologies including CCS
them to prioritise their financing towards and various nature-based solutions
the decommissioning of coal and the such as native reforestation and soil
build-out of renewables in the power carbon. This was greatly boosted by the
sector. In these countries, natural gas is successful adoption of global standards
seen as complimentary to renewables, and certification for these solutions, and
providing flexibility to the energy system the ratification of global carbon-trading
through its ability to be easily transported agreements during the early part of the
and stored to support seasonal variations in decade. Together these breakthroughs
energy demand still beyond the capability created the trust, transparency and

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 86

“As the energy

transition
progresses and
is dominated by
technology, there
is increasing
evidence of the
technology haves
and have nots.”
JUSTINE JARVINEN
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
UNSW ENERGY INSTITUTE

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30 VOICES ON 2030: THE FUTURE OF ENERGY 87

Acknowledgments
This report was very much a team effort.
A special thank you to Sofia Lanfranconi, Laura Woolford, Ania Bokina,
Louisa Keegan, Lisa Maroun, Ashley de Silva, Ted Surette, Julie Adams,
Chris Whiting, Nyk Loates, Bridget Leonard, Charlie Hunter, Steve Keast,
Phil Marsden, Ken Chung, Barry Sterland, James Arnott, Christiane Brendel,
Ryan Wolton, Scott Mesley, Mark Davis, Jackie Sharp, Adrian Farrant, Theodora
Iliadis, Merriden Varrall, Alistair Fraser, Ben Twartz, Janenie Mohgan, Jacob
Hacker, Sophie Tversky, Sandrine Foskett , Yolanda Stead, Steve Clarke,
Praveen Thakur, Ben Ellis, Jon Benton, Rebecca Alexander-Heard,
Sophie Finemore, James Copsey, Marjorie Johnston, Kat Parry, Yuki Takeda,
Rachel Yeung, Rory McLean, Clinton Botha, Kirsten Brown, Naomi Rahim,
Ning Hadiningsih, Rob Catalfamo, Cat May, Elli Schroeder and Linda Davies.

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Cassandra Hogan James Mabbott

National Industry Leader Partner in Charge
Energy & Natural Resources KPMG Futures
[email protected] [email protected]

Matt Pearce
National Sector Leader
Power & Utilities
[email protected]

Nick Harridge
National Sector Leader
Mining
[email protected]

Jonathon Peacock
National Sector Leader
Oil & Gas
[email protected]

KPMG.com/au/30voicesonenergy

The information contained in this document is of a general nature and is not intended to address the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual or entity. It is provided
for information purposes only and does not constitute, nor should it be regarded in any manner whatsoever, as advice and is not intended to influence a person in making a decision, including,
if applicable, in relation to any financial product or an interest in a financial product. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such
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thorough examination of the particular situation.
To the extent permissible by law, KPMG and its associated entities shall not be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or for any loss or damage
suffered by persons who use or rely on such information (including for reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise).
©2021 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English
company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are trademarks used under license by the independent member firms of the KPMG global organisation.

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August 2021. 696709516ENR.

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KPMG 30 Voices On The Future of Energy

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KPMG 30 Voices On The Future of Energy

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30 VOICES

In the past year, the conversation on energy

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Why 30 Voices on 2030: The Future of Energy?

KPMG Australia is also committed to

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Alan Yu, LAVO 18 Justine Jarvinen, UNSW Energy Institute 52

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Predictions for 2030

In an evolving Net zero is a Governments Technology focus “Green The decarbonisation

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For Australia the energy transition means major new opportunities.

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1. The Energy Mix of 2030

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2. ESG and the

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3. Data – the Fuel Behind

Trust is now a key differentiator for energy companies -

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4. People and Talent –

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5. The 2030 Policy Agenda

The speed of change has seen the energy system

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6. Beyond Net Zero – the Push

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What seemed like

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As we build the hydrogen ecosystem, Energy storage plays a critical role in

“For any sort of new cheaper than green hydrogen but

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Emission-free mobility today combines Companies could not achieve these

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Alba Ruiz Leon

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“Australia has led

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Audrey Zibelman leads X’s

Audrey has spent over three

She is an international expert in

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Ben Wilson is Chief Executive

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Brian Janous is responsible for leading the development and execution

BACK IN 2020, MICROSOFT, MADE A PLEDGE 2050, we were making commitments

energy system, the more more importantly, helped others along

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and servers - which weren’t optimised or

IN WHAT WAYS ARE ’BIG TECH’ COMPANIES

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“I n 2030, we are

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“The solar tipping

In 2030, we are celebrating the Solar’s success has been driven by

All that was needed was pure

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“Using Lithium, we have

The element lithium is essentially a

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AS AN ORGANISATION THAT REPRESENTS Accompanying this shift in government

fundamentally in energy technology development

we get there...” transportation and construction.

“For any sort of new cheaper than green hydrogen but

“I n 2030, we are

“The solar tipping

“Using Lithium, we have

“In 2030 energy and

Jemma Green “Blockchain technology is building the trust needed

“Space power – the

Justine Jarvinen “The energy transition has brought a tsunami of data

“I n trucking and power or food products that are being

"In 2030 we’re at

“I t’s a very challenging

Sally-Ann Williams “Energy industry innovation is growing; it could have