Saudi Economy Watch 1732391759
Saudi Economy Watch 1732391759
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is steadily advancing energy sector offers significant opportunities for job
its economic diversification efforts while transitioning creation and economic growth. Investments are also
towards a more sustainable future. To secure a stable underway in advanced manufacturing, such as electric
and sustainable energy future, and achieve net zero vehicles (EVs), and environmental preservation has
emissions by 2060, the country is tackling the energy become a priority in tourism development projects.
trilemma by balancing the need for reliable energy The Saudi Green Initiative pushes the agenda further,
supply, minimising negative environmental impact, and targeting the protection of 30% of national land
ensuring affordable energy costs - critical factors for and sea area by 2030, alongside reducing carbon
both economic stability and environmental protection. emissions by 278 million tonnes per annum and
In the second edition of our Saudi Economy Watch, we planting 10 billion trees.
explore the Kingdom’s progress towards these goals
Meanwhile, the broader economy remains resilient.
and its efforts to shape a more resilient future.
Despite a reduction in oil production this year, in
The focus on sustainability is most evident in the response to the changing oil supply-demand balance,
significant expansion of renewable energy capacity. the OPEC+ allocation schedule plans for production to
The Kingdom aims to add 20GW every year to achieve rebound by the end of 2025 to the highest level since
its overall goal of 130GW by 2030,1 and is ready to June 2023. The non-oil private sector grew by 4.9%
export up to 150GW of green electricity. Aligned with in Q2, the strongest in a year, led by sectors such as
the country’s transformation goals, the renewable trade and hospitality.
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01 Recent economic
performance
01
Recent economic performance
OPEC+ extends producer action Solid non-oil performance in H1
The oil sector, a key driver of the Saudi economy, The non-oil economy continued to perform strongly
remains constrained by demand and OPEC+ quotas, in H1 2024, up by 3.8% year-on-year. This was led
with production in 2024 set to average just under 9m by the private sector, which grew by 4.2%, including
b/d, the lowest level since 2010. The year began with by 4.9% in Q2, the strongest performance in a year.5
a significant win for Saudi Arabia’s oil market strategy The biggest contribution came from the trade and
as seven other countries agreed to make a second hospitality sector, which grew by 6.4% in H1 and there
round of voluntary cuts beyond their formal OPEC+ was positive growth in all the other non-oil sectors
allocations, whereas previously Saudi Arabia had been including transport and communications (4.8%)
bearing this burden alone, making a unilateral cut of and finance and business services (3.8%). Although
1m b/d from July 2023. Then in June, an agreement manufacturing only grew by 1.7%, this was a notable
was reached to extend OPEC+ action through H2 rebound and came despite a further cut in crude
2024 and 2025, maintaining headline quotas and production, which can affect feedstock for downstream
gradually tapering voluntary cuts, which would bring industries and was part of the reason for the 3.5%
Saudi output back to nearly 10m b/d in late 2025, the decline in manufacturing in 2023.
highest since June 2023. These efforts seemed to
bear fruit as the oil price broadly stabilised, with Brent Non-oil growth (% p.a.)
crude averaging $83/barrel from January to August,
5.3
similar to 2023. However, concerns grew about the
economic health of China and the US and hence the 4.4
trajectory for oil demand growth, causing Brent to 3.8 3.8
dip, which fell below $70 on 10th September for the 3.2
03
Sustainability and Vision 2030
Sustainability milestones ecosystems. The SGI’s first summit was also the
occasion for the announcement of a formal net-zero
Saudi Arabia’s journey toward sustainability has been
target, for the year 2060; Saudi Arabia was one of the
marked by a series of critical milestones that have
first countries in the region to announce a net-zero
laid the foundation for its long-term vision. Building
target and it was a highly symbolic development for
on Vision 2030, the Kingdom has progressively set
the world’s largest oil exporter that had in the past
ambitious sustainability goals and implemented
been accused of resisting global efforts to transition
comprehensive programmes to facilitate their
away from hydrocarbons. Saudi Arabia’s sustainability
realisation. These Milestones range from initial
ambitions were on display at COP28 in Dubai in late
foundational steps, through the setting of increasingly
2023, both in the formal meetings and in the initiatives
ambitious targets and systematic programmes, to a
showcased in its national pavilion.
focus on developing the right enablers to facilitate
implementation. There have also been efforts to integrate sustainability
into finance, including the Ministry of Finance’s Green
These included the King Salman Renewable Energy
Financing Framework, published in March 2024.
Initiative, which in 2016 introduced new capacity
Alongside these major developments, there have been
targets for power deployment and have, in turn, been
dozens of smaller initiatives across government and
successively increased; these are discussed in detail
also in the semi-public and private sectors, where
in the next section of this report. Meanwhile, legislative
ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) efforts
changes culminated in the General Environment
have become widespread. Moreover, sustainability has
Regulation issued in July 2020, updating a two-
become a major topic of discussion at conferences,
decades-old law to address current challenges. Then,
such as the annual Future Investment Initiative, and it
the Kingdom’s presidency of the G20 in 2020 provided
is an area that Saudi Arabia emphasises in its regional
an opportunity to unveil its Circular Carbon Economy
cooperation efforts, such as the Middle East Green
framework, which focuses on efforts to integrate into
Initiative.
economic planning efforts to reduce, reuse, recycle
and remove CO2 emissions. These clear ambitions around sustainability have defied
expectations of some sceptics and have become
Next came the launch of the Saudi Green Initiative
integral to the Kingdom’s vision for the future, well
(SGI) in 2021, a broad programme that cuts across
beyond 2030.
governments and catalyses efforts to reduce
emissions, protect the land and sea, and restore
Vision 2030 2030 renewables General G20 endorses Net-zero COP28 in Hosting the
targets in hiked Environment Circular Carbon 2060 target Dubai UNCCD’s COP16
Regulation Economy framework in Riyadh
02 04 06 08 10 12
01 03 05 07 09 11 13
King Salman Red Sea Project Launch of Circular Saudi Green Saudi Arabia opens Green
Renewable sustainability Carbon Economy (CCE) Initiative the world’s largest Financing
Energy Initiative plan National Program green hydrogen Framework
plant in NEOM
04
03 Diversifying and enhancing
energy efficiency
05
Diversifying and enhancing energy efficiency
Saudi Arabia’s sustainability strategy addresses both fields are still being discovered, most recently Al-
the supply and demand sides of energy management Ladam and Al-Farouq in 2024.10
to achieve its environmental goals. On the supply side,
The expanded gas production aims to end the use of
the Kingdom is investing in lower-carbon alternatives,
oil in the power sector by 2030, which would free up
including natural gas and renewable energy sources
about 0.4m b/d of oil for export. As well as producing
like solar, wind, and nuclear power. These efforts aim
more gas, the implementation of the Liquid Fuels
to reduce emissions while diversifying the energy
Displacement Program requires expanding the Master
mix. On the demand side, the focus is on enhancing
Gas Network to deliver the gas where it is needed,
energy efficiency and reducing overall consumption
including converting power and desalination plants
across sectors. The strategy also emphasises driving
to use gas. There may even be enough gas to export
electrification in transportation and industry to further
LNG or convert into “blue” hydrogen, which involves
decrease carbon emissions, aligning with global
capturing and storing the waste carbon dioxide from
sustainability trends and national targets for a greener
the process.
future.
06
Renewables rollout
The Kingdom’s potential for renewables, particularly More awards are expected by the end of the year,
solar power, has been clear for some time, with including at least 3.7 GW across four projects in the
ambitious capacity targets set as early as 2013. Some 5th round of REPDO tenders.14 The goal is for the
of the early targets have been missed, but there public sector to tender around 20 GW of capacity
has been a dramatic increase in delivery capacity in each year until the renewable targets are achieved.
recent years that provide more confidence for current Assuming the pace of tendering is maintained, and
plans. The official target for 2030 was hiked last year taking into account the time required for capacity
from an already ambitious 58.7GW to a range of to come onstream, the 2030 target could just about
100-130GW, reflecting uncertainty about the rate of be achieved. To speed up the process, the Ministry
electricity demand, as the goal is to meet at least 50% of Energy launched a national geographic survey in
of demand through renewables, with the remainder July to identify suitable sites for tenders.15 The other
provided by gas.11 challenge will be to scale up the capacity of companies
such as ACWA Power to implement many projects in
Procedures and financing were put in place to work
parallel, which will require large-scale training of Saudis
towards these targets, with the Ministry of Energy’s
and the hiring of suitably skilled expatriates.
Renewable Energy Project Development Office
(REPDO) and the Saudi Power Procurement Company The dramatic expansion in renewables that is planned
(SPPC) awarding four projects. This includes, the first makes good economic sense because the Kingdom
utility-scale solar plant PV, Sakaka, which came into has excellent solar and wind resources in locations
operation in 2021, and the first wind plant, Dumat that can be affordably developed. Shell’s global energy
Al-Jandal, in 2022. Projects have also been tendered resources database lists it as the country with the 6th
by PIF, which has been given the mandate to deliver highest solar potential (34 Exajoules/year) and the
70% of the national renewables target, which it is 13th highest for onshore wind (0.5 Exajoules).16 As a
doing through its Badeel subsidiary and in partnership result, it has repeatedly set global record low prices for
with its associate ACWA Power and Aramco. The first renewables. The most recent was in May 2024, when
to be operational, and the Kingdom’s largest, is the SPPC signed a contract with the planned 600MW
1.5GW Sudair solar plant, which began production AlGhat Wind project at a levelised cost of electricity of
in September 2023. There are also other public and just 1.56 US cents/kWh.17 In addition, back in 2021,
private companies developing renewables, including the contract for the 600MW Al-Faisaliah plant had
Saudi Electricity Company, Aramco and Alfanar. set a solar record low of 1.04 US cents/kWh.18 These
are the lows, and other projects contracted in recent
The policies, capabilities and financing structures are
years have been as high as 2.5 US cents/kWh but this
now in place so that even if the targets are not met by
is still considerably cheaper than combined cycle gas
2030, they should be soon afterward. As of September
plants which can cost at least 3 US cents/kWh, even
2024, a total of 21 projects had been contracted
when gas is provided a very low subsidised price, as
through REPDO and PIF, with a total planned capacity
it is in Saudi Arabia.19 The success of the renewables
of 19GW.12 The most recent to become operational
programme means that attention is beginning to shift
was the 700MW Al-Rass solar plant,13 in August and
towards storage capacity, which will become important
we estimate that close to 5 GW of capacity will be
when intermittent generation comprises a larger
operational by the end of 2024, a more than five-fold
proportion of grid capacity.
increase in two years. Capacity should more than
double in 2025 and double again in 2026, to around
21GW, based on the estimated timelines of announced The nuclear potential
projects.
Saudi Arabia has a longstanding interest in nuclear
Operational renewable capacity power. The King Abdullah City for Atomic and
Renewable Energy (KA-CARE) proposed in 2013
25
to build 17GW of nuclear capacity by 2032, later
21.5 postponing the target until 2040 (at the same time as
20
it postponed the renewables target).20 Since then, no
major projects have been contracted, with just a low-
15
energy test reactor completed this year by Argentine
10 10.5 firm Invap.
4.9 Given the rapid expansion of gas and renewable
5 3.0 energy capacity, along with the cost and complexity of
0.8
0.4 nuclear power, it is unlikely that nuclear energy will play
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
a significant role in the Kingdom’s energy mix in the
medium term. However, niche applications, particularly
Source: IRENA historic data until 2023, PwC forecasts for 2024-26 for new small-scale modular nuclear reactor designs,
based on announced projects may still be explored.
07
Greening industry and infrastructure Brazilian giant Vale,29 and efforts are also underway to
expand exploration and mining within the Kingdom.
Saudi Arabia has seen a significant opportunity to
Projects have been announced to extract lithium
link its investment in renewables capacity with the
from spodumene ore, including by EV Metals, which
development of upstream industrial activity locally,
announced plans in 2021 to develop a plant in Yanbu,30
as part of broader localisation and diversification
and more recently by European Lithium in 2023.
objectives. The first solar manufacturing in the
Kingdom was by dt Industries in Jeddah, which had Saudi Arabia’s tourism sector presents a unique
an annual capacity of 300MW of panels in 2023 and opportunity to integrate sustainability into
is aiming to boost that as high as 3GW by 2025.21 In development, as well as promoting environmental
a major development in July 2024, the Renewable conservation. The Kingdom understands the
Energy Localisation Company, a subsidiary of PIF, importance of preserving its diverse landscapes and
signed agreements with three Chinese companies, ecosystems, not only for their economic potential but
Jinko Solar, Lumetech and Envision Energy to develop for their ecological significance. For example, the Royal
solar and wind components.22 Nature Reserves initiative aims to protect and restore
the country’s natural landscapes and biodiversity,
Some of these locally produced components may be
safeguarding iconic Arabian species like gazelles
used in the Kingdom’s largest clean energy project,
and Nubian ibexes, which have been threatened
the NEOM Green Hydrogen Company in Oxagon. The
by urbanisation, habitat loss and illegal hunting.
plant achieved an $8.4bn financial close in 2023 on
These reserves also provide sanctuary for migratory
its first phase, which is due to come into production
birds, red foxes and golden jackals, balancing
in 2026, when it will use 4GW of solar and wind
both ecological preservation and cultural heritage.
power to produce 1.2m t/yr of ammonia, the preferred
Attracting over 400,000 visitors annually, the reserves
carrier molecule for hydrogen energy.23 The project is
promote sustainable tourism and contribute to both
being developed by PIF in association with US firm
conservation and economic growth, with infrastructure
Air Products, which has signed a 30-year off-take
investments of approximately US$350 million planned
agreement, significantly derisking the project. It will be
by 2030.
the world’s largest green hydrogen project and could
be substantially expanded in the future.
An even more substantial area of investment in
green technology is electric vehicles. Saudi Arabia
is establishing a manufacturing hub in King Abdullah
Economic City, with a goal of producing 150,000
vehicles by 2026 and half a million vehicles by 2030,
along with localisation of much of the component
supply chain.24 The objectives are being implemented
through three companies. US firm Lucid Group, 60%
owned by PIF, opened its first facility in the Kingdom
in 2023, starting by reassembling cars sent in kits from
its main Arizona factory, as it invests in developing a
full production line. The other major player is Ceer, a
joint venture between PIF and Taiwan’s Foxconn, which
is developing its own EV models, utilising technology
from BMW. Ceer has taken major steps forward in
2024, awarding a $1.3bn contract to Modern Building
Leaders to construct its factory and a $2.2bn contract
with Hyundai Transys for the supply of the EV drive
systems for its vehicles.25 In addition, Hyundai Motors
has partnered with PIF to develop a factory for both
EVs and conventional cars, which is aiming to begin
operations in 2026.26
As well as building EVs, Saudi Arabia is procuring
them for the public sector and developing a charging
network. The Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Company,
a JV between PIF and Saudi Electricity Company,
plans to install 5,000 fast chargers by 2030.27 The
government pledged in 2022 to buy up to 100,000
of the Lucid EVs produced during the first decade
in which the factory is in operation.28 Another area
of focus is the supply chain for batteries and their
precursor minerals. Manara Minerals, a JV between
Ma’aden and PIF, was launched in 2023 to procure
key minerals abroad, including a major investment
in 2030 in the Energy Transition Metals business of
08
Improving energy and resource efficiency
Efforts to expand renewable and gas production are
also being complemented by initiatives to improve
energy and resource efficiency. Since the launch of
the Saudi Energy Efficiency Program in 2012, the
programme is estimated to have resulted in energy
savings equivalent to around 0.5m b/d of oil, by
improving the efficiency of buildings, reducing the
energy intensity of industry and developing public
transportation.31 These efforts will advance further in
late 2024 when the Riyadh Metro opens and shifts
a sizable proportion of the city’s transportation off
roads. The carbon intensity of industry is also being
addressed through carbon capture, utilisation and
storage (CCUS), a technology that Saudi Arabia is
well placed to deploy given Saudi Arabia’s expertise
in drilling and the availability of reservoirs suitable for
storing captured CO2. SABIC currently captures 1.3m
t/yr of CO2, already one of the world’s largest such
projects, and is aiming to expand CCUS capacity to
11m t/yr by 2035.32
Another pressing challenge is water sustainability.
As one of the largest producers of desalinated water
globally, Saudi Arabia depends on this energy-
intensive process due to its arid climate and lack of
perennial rivers. However, desalination’s environmental
impacts, including brine discharge that harms marine
life, pose significant challenges. In response, the
Kingdom is investing in sustainable desalination
technologies, exploring alternative water sources like
treated wastewater, and advancing water conservation
measures. The country is also focusing on improving
the efficiency of its water infrastructure and promoting
water-saving practices among its population.
09
Vision 2050
As this report has outlined, Saudi Arabia has made
significant advances in sustainability across various
sectors, with plans to accelerate progress in the final
years of Vision 2030. which would create hundreds
of thousands of jobs in sectors ranging from
manufacturing to tourism, and make a significant
contribution to the non-oil economy. This then raises
the question: What could come next?
It is likely that in the later part of this decade, the
government will announce a successor plan, perhaps
a Vision 2040 or 2050, outlining its goals for the next
stage of development. Such a vision would likely look
out much further into the energy transition. To meet
the UN climate goals, some assessments suggest that
global oil consumption would need to fall by about
two-thirds by 2050,33 whereas OPEC’s forecast sees
demand continuing to increase, rising by about a sixth
to 120 million b/d by 2050.34 Nevertheless, there is
good reason for the Kingdom to press ahead with its
sustainability efforts domestically.
The next vision could see more ambitious targets
for renewable energy generation, moving from
the 2030 target of 50% electricity generation from
renewables towards 100%. This might involve halting
the construction of new gas plants and phasing out
existing ones, as well as expanding energy efficiency
measures. There could also be a major push to expand
utilisation of EVs, not least because of domestic
production capacity that will be in place by 2030. The
government could commit to utilising EVs for its fleets,
investing in the charging infrastructure and providing
subsidies for purchases - replacing the existing
subsidies on fossil fuel consumption, estimated by the
IMF at around 5% of GDP.35
A successful shift toward clean energy domestically
would also free up gas to be exported as LNG or blue
ammonia to displace more polluting fuels like coal
abroad. Carbon capture and storage in the chemicals
sector is another way that the Kingdom could cleanly
utilise its hydrocarbon reserves. Green energy exports
could also be ramped up, including increasing
production of hydrogen, which some forecasts expect
to comprise about 15% of the global energy mix in
a net-zero scenario,36 and the Kingdom could also
expand its direct exports of electricity to neighbours,
building on its existing grid interconnections with Iraq,
Egypt and other countries.
The Kingdom’s continued commitment to sustainability,
paired with its bold vision for future development,
positions Saudi Arabia to play a critical role in the
global energy transition. By pursuing clean energy
initiatives, expanding green technology, and building
strategic partnerships, Saudi Arabia is poised not only
for continued economic growth but also for leadership
in the global green economy in the years ahead.
10
11
References
1. Argaam, “Saudi Arabia targets 130 GW of renewables by 2030: Minister”, 18 December 2023
2. OPEC, “Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman extend voluntary cuts”, 5 Sep 2024
3. Ministry of Finance, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Performance Report FY 2024, October 2024
4. Aramco, Q2 Results, 5 August 2024
5. General Authority for Statistics, GDP and National Accounts Q2 2024
6. S&P Global, Riyadh Bank Saudi Arabia PMI, 3 October 2024
7. IMF, Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and North Africa, April 2024
8. Aramco, “Saudi Aramco Joins World Bank’s Initiative: Zero Routine Flaring by 2030”, 6 November 2019
9. Aramco, Aramco adds significant volumes to proven gas and condensate reserves at Jafurah unconventional field, 27 February 2024
10. Ministry of Energy, New Discoveries of Oil and Natural Gas in Eastern Province and Empty Quarter, 1 July 2024
11. Argaam, “Saudi Arabia targets 130 GW of renewables by 2030”, 18 December 2023
12. KAPSARC, Saudi Arabia Renewables Watch
13. Saudi Gulf Projects, ACWA Power announces commercial operation for 700MW Ar Rass 1 Solar Plant, 18 August 2024
14. SPPC, “SPPC Announces Qualified Bidders for the 5th Round of Renewable Energy Projects with a Total Capacity of 3700 MW”, 12 February 2024
15. Ministry of Energy, “The Ministry of Energy launches the unprecedented Geographical Survey Project for Renewable Energy Sites in the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia”, 24 June 2024
16. Shell, Energy Resources Database, Accessed 1 October 2024
17. Ministry of Energy, “Saudi Power Procurement Company Announces New World Record For Low Cost of Electricity from Wind Power”, 21 May 2024
18. PV Magazine, “Saudi Arabia’s second PV tender draws world record low bid of $0.0104/kWh”, 8 April 2021
19. IEA, “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity”, December 2020
20. Qamar Energy, “Saudi Arabia Energy Needs and Nuclear Power”
21. Dt Industries
22. Saudi Gazette, “PIF signs agreements to localize renewable energy manufacturing in Saudi Arabia”, 16 July 2024
23. NEOM, “NEOM Green Hydrogen Company completes financial close at a total investment value of USD 8.4 billion in the world’s largest carbon-free
green hydrogen plant”, 22 May 2023
24. Reuters, “Riyadh’s multi-billion EV dream risks crashing into reality”, 24 January 2024
25. Ceer, “Ceer Signs SAR 8.2 billion (USD 2.18 billion) Contract for the Supply of Hyundai Transys’ Advanced Electric Vehicle Drive Systems”, 11 June
2024
26. Hyundai, “PIF and Hyundai Motor Company Sign Joint Venture Agreement to Establish New Automotive Manufacturing Plant in Saudi Arabia”, 23
October 2023
27. AGBI, “PIF launches company to drive Saudi EV charging”, 9 October 2023
28. Lucid, “Lucid Announces Deal for Purchase of Up to 100,000 Electric Vehicles”, 26 April 2022
29. Vale, “Vale announces completion of strategic partnership agreement with Manara Minerals”, 30 April 2024
30. Saudi Gulf Projects, “EV Metals Group advances its Lithium Chemicals Plant Project in Saudi Arabia”, 19 August 2024
31. SEEC
32. Aramco, “How can we help lower industrial emissions?”
33. IEA, “Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach”, September 2023
34. OPEC, “World Oil Outlook 2024”
35. IMF “Saudi Arabia: 2024 Article IV Consultation”, 4 September 2024
36. Irena, “International trade and green hydrogen: Supporting the global transition to a low-carbon economy”, December 2023
12
Contact us
Jing Teow
Economics & Sustainability - Director
PwC Middle East
[email protected]
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