LESSON outline

Date: 20 May 2020 Class: Year 11 Teacher: Justine Namalawa

Subject: Geography Topic: Demographic Transition model

Lesson Objective: Key Words:

Understand about the demographic transition Demographic transition model, death rate,
model and population pyramids birth rate

Introduction:

The demographic transition model

The relationship between birth rate and death rate has been used to create a four stage model of a country's
population change, called the demographic model. Countries which are described as being developed have
reached Stage 4. The UK is one of these. Other countries are at different stages of their development, and
therefore occupy different places on the model.

Stage One: High birth rate (BR) and high death rate (DR), both around 35 per 1000. This means a relatively
slow population growth. High BR due to no contraception and the need for large families. High BR due to
diseases, poor health care, poor water quality, and a poor food supply. The UK was at this stage in the period up
to 1750. Only a few remote indigenous tribes, in places such as the Amazon rainforest, exhibit these
characteristics nowadays.
Stage Two: BR remains high, at around 35 per 1000, but DR falls to about 20 per 1000 by the end of the stage.
The DR falls due to improvements in health care, sanitation and water quality. There is also increased access to
medicines and food. The UK was in this period between 1750 and 1880. Countries such as Bangladesh, Libya
and Nigeria are currently in this stage of their development.
Stage Three: BR falls rapidly to near 20 per 1000, and DR continues to slowly fall to around 15 per 1000. The
fall in the BR is due to better access to contraception, more family planning education, working women getting
married and having children later, less need for children as a labour source. DR continues to fall as health care
improves further, and sanitation conditions improve. The UK was in this stage between 1880 and 1950.
Countries passing through this stage at present include China and Argentina.
Stage Four: BR and DR low, at under 10 per 1000. Although there may be some annual fluctuations population
growth is close to zero. The UK is in this stage at the moment, along with countries such as the United States
and Japan.
Stage Five: It has been suggested that a new fifth stage should be added to the model, due to some countries,
such as Sweden and France, having higher DR than BR, so that their populations are actually falling.
Population pyramids
The composition of the population of a country can tell you a great deal about its development. The best way to
look at this is by studying a population pyramid. This is basically back to back bar graphs, one showing the
number of males, the other showing the number of females. The bars represent age bands of 5 year intervals.

Different shaped population pyramids indicate the stage of development that a certain country has reached. The
differences between the population pyramids of MEDC's and LEDC's are covered in the next section.

Population pyramids can indicate the BR and DR of a country. For instance a country whose pyramid has a
wide base has a high BR. If the numbers rapidly decrease, to form a triangular shaped pyramid, then there must
also be a fairly high DR, and so the country is in either the first or second stage of development. A country in
Stage four will have a relatively narrow base, and there will be similar numbers of people in all the bands up
until 70, when the numbers will start to fall. This country would be one like the UK with good health care, and
a high life expectancy.
Population pyramids can also show the percentage of the population, which is described as being "dependant".
These are the groups of people who rely on the economically active members of society. Dependants are
classified as those under working age (0 - 15 years old) and those who have retired (over 65). They rely on the
working age group of people between 16 and 64.
Population pyramids can also show significant events. In Germany there are far more males between 20 and 35,
than there are females of a similar age. This shows up quite clearly on a pyramid, and is due to the huge
numbers of male immigrant workers that came into the country through the 1990's. They came to Germany to
find work, and left their families at home in places such as Yugoslavia and Turkey.
Another type of event that can be traced easily on population pyramids, is the effect of war. Often this leads to
large in-balances in the population, with far more women than men of fighting age remaining as the men have
been killed in battle.
Population pyramids can be used to help planning for the future also, as they can used to project the
percentages of certain age-groups in the population over the next 50 years. In this way plans can be introduced
to cope with the forecast changes, such as the ageing population in the UK.
Less economically developed countries and more economically developed countries both have certain
characteristics that can be seen on a population pyramid. These are described in the table below, using the UK
as the MEDC (Stage 4) and Bangladesh as the LEDC (Stage 2):
More Economically Developed: Less Economically Developed:
Wide base to the pyramid, due to high
Narrow base to the pyramid, due to low BR. BR. This means that there is a high
dependent young population.
Numbers decrease as you go up the
Constant numbers of people through all bands of
pyramid, forming the triangular shape of
working age.
the pyramid.
Large number of people over 65, which means Few people over 65, means there is a very
that there is a high dependent elderly population. small dependent elderly population.
High life expectancy, due to good medical care,
means that there is a high percentage over 65. Low life expectancy, poor health care.
This also means that the pyramid is taller.
Low DR due to good health care. Low infant
High DR and infant mortality rate.
mortality rate, means that families have less
Families have more children, as they are
children, but they usually survive to live a long
not sure how long they might survive.
life.
Females tend to live longer than males. Females tend to live longer than males.

Assignment Due date: