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Refer/WI/ACAD/18

SHRI RAMSWAROOP MEMORIAL COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT

MBA [SEM I] [Group-11, 12, 13, 14]

TUTORIAL SHEET-2
[Session: 2024-25 (Odd)]

BMB 104: BUSINESS STATISTICS & ANALYTICS

Unit No. & Name: 2, Time Series & Index Number Course Outcome: CO2: Students will be able to
understand the concept of Time
Series Analysis, Index Number and
their applications in Business
problems.
Date of Distribution: 21-10-2024 Name of Faculty: Mr. Shujauddin Niyazi

SUBJECTIVE QUESTIONS BL
Time series analysis: Concept, Additive and Multiplicative models, Components of time series
Q1) Explain the concept of time series and its various components. 2
Q2) Discuss the methods of time series for isolating trends? 2
Q3) Describe the concept and role of additive and multiplicative models in time series analysis? 2

Trend analysis: Least Square method - Linear and Non- Linear equations, Applications in business
decision-making
Describe linear trend in a time series. What are the objectives behind the study of trend in a
Q4) 2
time series?
What is meant by non-linear trend? Discuss the procedure to fit a quadratic trend curve by the
Q5) 2
method of least square?
A company that manufactures steel observed the production of steel (in metric tones)
represented by the time series:
Year : 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Q6) Production of steel : 60 72 75 65 80 85 95 3
(a) Fit the linear equation that describes the trend in the production of steel by the
company.
(b) Estimate the production of steel in 2003.
The following table gives the export of an item during seven years:
Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Q7) 3
Exports (in tons) 64 86 60 93 99 106 113
Estimate the likely export during the year 2012.
Fit the equation of a straight line trend by the method of least squares for the data given below.
Analyze the data and estimate the sales for the year 2023. If the actual sale for that year is Rs
520 lakhs.
Year Sales Year Sales
Q8) (Rs Lakhs) (Rs Lakhs) 3
2000 412 2004 470
2001 438 2005 482
2002 444 2006 490
2003 454 2007 500
Fit a non-linear trend of the form Y  a  bX  cX for the given data.
2

Q9) X 0 1 2 3 4 3
Y 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.5 3.5
Q10) The prices of a commodity during 1995-2000 are given below. Fit a parabola Y  a  bX  cX 2 3

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 in these data. Estimate the price of the commodity for the year 2018 and 2025.
Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Price 100 107 128 140 181 192
The following table gives the profits (in million Rs) of a firm for nine years ending 2008:
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Q11) Profit 1.6 4.5 13.8 40.2 12.5 17.8 18.2 14.3 19.4 4
Analyze the data and Find the trend values for the years 2000-2008 using an equation of the
form Y  ab
X

The trend equation for annual sales is

Y = 102+36X with 1st January 1990 as origin
Q12) 3
(a) Determine the monthly trend equation with 1st November 1992 as origin.
(b) Compute the trend values of sales in March 1991 and Oct 1994.
Fit a straight line trend to the following data by least square method after summing the given
quarterly data to yearly data. Also tabulate short term fluctuations.
Export of Auto parts (Million Rs)
Year I Quarter II Quarter III Quarter IV Quarter
Q13) 2010 10 13 14 12 3
2011 12 14 15 13
2012 13 15 18 14
2013 15 18 21 18
2014 15 22 23 20

Index Numbers:- Meaning , Types of index numbers, uses of index numbers

Q14) Define index number. Explain its characteristics, utility and limitations. 2
Q15) Differentiate between Laspeyre’s and Paasche’s price index numbers. 2
Explain the fixed base and chain base method of construction of an index number. Describe
Q16) 2
their relative merits and demerits.

Construction of Price, Quantity and Volume indices:- Fixed base and Chain base methods
From the following data, compute quantity index number for the current year by applying:
(a) Laspeyre’s Method
(b) Paasche’s Method
(c) Bowley’s Method
(d) Fisher’s Ideal Method
(e) Marshall Edgeworth’s Method
Q17) 1999 2000 3
Commodity Price Expenditure on Quantity Price Expenditure on Quantity
Consumed (Rs) Consumed (Rs)
A 8 200 65 1950
B 20 1400 30 1650
C 5 80 20 900
D 10 360 15 300
E 27 2160 10 600
For the following data, calculate the price index number of 1999 with 1998 as the base year: (a)
Laspeyre’s method and (b) Paasche’s method.
1998 1999
Commodity Price Quantity Price Quantity
Q18) 3
M 25 9 48 7
N 57 11 67 6
P 48 16 60 17
Q 26 18 22 32
Q19) For the following data, calculate the price index number of 1999 with 1995 as the base year 3

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 by
(i) Laspeyre’s method
(ii) Paasche’s method
(iii) Marshall-Edgeworth method
(iv) Fisher’s method
(v) Bowley’s method
Commodity Base Year (1995) Current Year (1998)
Price(Rs) Quantity(Kg) Price(Rs) Quantity(Kg)

M 40 5 65 50
N 60 10 80 8
P 65 5 90 10
Q 80 8 75 5
R 100 5 110 12
Determine Chain base indices from the data given below:
Year price Year Price
1997 37 2003 48
1998 39 2004 49
Q20) 3
1999 43 2005 54
2000 48 2006 56
2001 48 2007 57
2002 52

SUPPLEMENTARY QUESTIONS BL
Trend Analysis
Cummins India Ltd, a subsidiary of Cummins inc. USA, is engaged in the business of
manufacturing and marketing of diesel engines and value packages serving the power
generation, industrial and automotive market. It also caters to the growing markets for gas and
dual fuel engines. Formerly known as Kirloskar Cummins Ltd, the company was incorporated
in 1962 and commenced its operation at Pune. Table below provides the sales turnover of
Cummins India Ltd from 1989-1990 to 1999-2000. Analyze the data and fit a straight line trend
Q1) by the method of least square with the help of the data given below and compare the results 4
obtained from the model and also estimate the sales turnover for 2004-2005.
1989- 1990- 1991- 1992- 1993- 1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999-
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Sales
(in
2299.4 2755.1 3304.3 3617.2 4109 5462.8 6605.6 8042.5 7470.4 6526.8 8374.2
million
rupees)
Index Numbers
Using arithmetic mean, median and geometric mean construct index numbers by the simple
average of relative method from the following data for 2008 and 2009 with 2007 as the base
year.
Profit (in Rs per unit)
Commodity
2007 2008 2009
Q2) A 100 120 150 3
B 40 45 60
C 30 35 45
D 10 12 15
E 20 22 23

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SHORT-ANSWER TYPE QUESTIONS BL
Time series analysis: Concept, Additive and Multiplicative models, Components of time series
Q1) Explain in brief the concept of time series. 2
Q2) Describe the need of editing of data before time series analysis? 2
Q3) Discuss in brief the utility of time series analysis. 2
Q4) Explain in brief the concept of irregular variation in the context of time series. 2
Q5) List the various objectives of analyzing seasonal variations. 2
Q6) Discuss the concept of cyclic variations. 2

Trend analysis: Least Square method - Linear and Non- Linear equations, Applications in business
decision-making
Q7) Describe the merits and demerits of least square method. 2
Q8) List the merits of least square method of finding the trend? 2
Q9) Discuss in brief the essential requirements for proper analysis of a time series? 2

Index Numbers:- Meaning , Types of index numbers, uses of index numbers

Q10) Give the concept of simple aggregate method for computing index numbers. 2
Q11) Describe Bowley’s price index number. 2
Q12) Give the un-weighted price index number. 2
Q13) Discuss in brief the uses of index numbers? 2
Q14) Explain in brief the characteristics of an index number? 2
Q15) Describe the concept of weighted aggregate method for computing index numbers. 2

Construction of Price, Quantity and Volume indices:- Fixed base and Chain base methods
Q16) List the various problems involved in the construction of index numbers. 2
Q17) Write any two differences between fixed base year and Chain base year. 2
Q18) Discuss in brief the limitations of index numbers. 2
Q19) Describe the concept of Bowley’s price index number. 2

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 BL
CROSSWORD-PUZZLE
1

Across Down
4. It is a measure used to adjust monthly or quarterly data for 1. This method isolates the seasonal factor after eliminating the
seasonal fluctuations. trend from time series.
6. According to this model a time series is the sum of its four 2. These numbers indicate the general level of prices of
components. commodities in the current period as compared to that of the
7. It is a statistical measure designed to show changes in a base period.
variable or group of related variables with respect to time, 3. According to this model a time series is the product of its four
geographical location or other characteristics. components.
9. It is a set of observations taken as specified times, at equal 5. It refers to such variations in a time series which do not
intervals. repeat in a definite pattern.
12. According to this method the total of the current year prices 8. It is defined as the geometric mean of Laspeyres’ and
for various commodities is expressed as a percentage of the total Paasche’s index numbers.
of the base year prices for these commodities. 10. It is an index that measures the change in quantity (usually
13. It refers to the fluctuations around the trend line that last for production) between two or more periods of time.
more than one year. 11. It is a component responsible for the regular rise and fall in
14. These are the index numbers of quantity of goods imported or the magnitude of the time series.
exported.
15. It is obtained by taking the arithmetic mean of Laspeyres’
and Paasche’ index numbers as weight in the weighted aggregate
price index general formula.

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REFERENCES

TEXT BOOKS:
No. of Books
Edition &Year of
Ref. [ID] Authors Book Title Publisher/Press Available in
Publication
Library
Tata McGraw-Hill
[T1] G C Beri Business Statistics 3rd, 2010 80
Education, Third Edition
nd
[T2] J K Sharma Business Statistics Pearson, Second Edition 2 , 2007 48
REFERENCE BOOKS:
Edition &Year of
Ref. [ID] Authors Book Title Publisher/Press
Publication
[R1] Levin-Rubin Statistics for Management Pearson 2007 73
ONLINE/DIGITALREFERENCES:
Ref. [ID] Source Name Source Hyperlink
Introductory Business https://resources.saylor.org/wwwresources/archived/site/wp-
[D1]
Statistics content/uploads/2012/03/Introductory-Business-Statistics.pdf

…………………. X………………….

Signature of Faculty: Signature of HOD:

(With Date) 10-10-2024 (With Date) 10-10-2024

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