Probability and

Probability
Distributions

Tufa Kolola
(MPH, Ass’t. Prof.)

1
 Probability
 A quantitative measure of uncertainty

 A measure of the strength of belief in the

occurrence of an uncertain event

 A measure of the degree of chance or likelihood

of occurrence of an uncertain event

 Measured by a number between 0 and 1 (or

between 0% and 100%)
2
 Probability
 Chance of observing a particular outcome

 Assumes a ―random‖ process: i.e.. the outcome is

not predetermined - there is an element of chance

 An outcome is a specific result of a single trial of a

probability experiment

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 Probability theory developed from the study of
games of chance like coin, dice and cards

 A process like flipping a coin, rolling a dice or

drawing a card from a deck are probability
experiments

4
 Why Probability
in Statistics?

 Results are not certain

 To evaluate how accurate our results are:
– Given how our data were collected, are our
results accurate ?
– Given the level of accuracy needed, how
many observations need to be collected ?

5
 When can we talk
about probability ?
 When dealing with a process that has an uncertain
outcome
- Birth of male or female child?
- A patient taking certain drug(cure/no)?
 Experiment = any process with an uncertain
outcome. An experiment is a trial and all possible
outcomes are events

When an experiment is performed, one and only

one outcome is obtained
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 Event = something that may happen or not when
the experiment is performed

 Events are represented by uppercase letters

such as A, B, and C

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 Sample space
 The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes

 In referring to probabilities of events, an event is any

set of outcomes of interest

 The probability of an event is the relative frequency

of this set of outcomes over an indefinitely large (or
infinite) number of trials.

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 Probability of an Event E, denoted by Pr(E),

=a number between 0 and 1 representing

the proportion of times that event E is
expected to happen when the experiment is
done over and over again under the same
conditions

 Any event can be expressed as a subset of the set

of all possible outcomes (S)

S = set of all possible outcomes

P(S) = 1
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 Why Probability
in Medicine?
 Because medicine is an inexact science,
physicians seldom predict an outcome with
absolute certainty

 E.g., to formulate a diagnosis, a physician must

rely on available diagnostic information about a
patient
– History and physical examination
– Laboratory investigation, X-ray findings, ECG,
etc
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 Although no test result is absolutely accurate, it
does affect the probability of the presence (or
absence) of a disease.
- Sensitivity and specificity

 An understanding of probability is fundamental for

quantifying the uncertainty that is inherent in the
decision-making process

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 Probability theory is a foundation for statistical
inference, &

 Allows us to draw conclusions about a population

based on information obtained from a sample
drawn from that population.

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More importantly probability theory is used to
understand:
– About probability distributions: Binomial,
Poisson, and Normal Distributions
– Sampling and sampling distributions
– Estimation
– Hypothesis testing
– Advanced statistical analysis

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 The two categories of
Probability

 Objective and Subjective Probabilities

 Objective probability
1) Classical probability &
2) Relative frequency probability

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 Classical
Probability
 Is based on gambling of ideas
 Rolling a dice
 Tossing of a coin

 If an event can occur in N mutually exclusive and

equally likely ways, and if m of these posses a
characteristic E,

Probability of E = P(E) =m/N

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 Relative frequency
Probability
 In the long run process
 The proportion of times that the event A occurs in a
large number of trials repeated under identical
conditions

 If an experiment is repeated a large number of

times(n) under same conditions, and if an event
with the characteristics E occurs m times, the
relative frequency of E,

Probability of E = P(E) = m/n 16

 Relative frequency
Probability
Example:
 Pulmonary Disease: The tuberculin skin test is a
routine screening test used to detect tuberculosis. The
results of this test can be categorized as either
positive, negative, or uncertain. If the probability of a
positive test is 0.1, it means that if a large number of
such tests were performed, about 10% would be
positive. The actual percentage of positive tests will
be increasingly close to 0.1 as the number of tests
performed increases.

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 In real life, experiments cannot be performed an
infinite number of times

 Instead, probabilities of events are estimated from

the empirical probabilities obtained from large
samples

 Empirical probabilities are based on a finite amount

of data

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Example: Suppose we are interested in the probability of a
male live birth among all live births
Probability of a male live birth of United States during the
period 1965–1974

 In principle, if the sample size increased indefinitely, an

increasingly more precise estimate of the probability
obtained
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 Mutually
Exclusive Events
 Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they
cannot occur at the same time
P (A ∩ B) = 0
 Example:
– A coin toss cannot produce heads and tails
simultaneously.
– Weight of an individual can’t be classified as
―underweight‖, ―normal‖, ―overweight‖
simultaneously

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 Example:

 Hypertension: Let A be the event that a person

has normotensive diastolic blood pressure (DBP <
90), and let B be the event that a person has
borderline DBP (90 ≤ DBP < 95), then the events A
and B are mutually exclusive because the events A
and B cannot occur at the same time

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 Example:

 Hypertension: Let A be the event that a person

has diastolic blood pressure (DBP ≥ 90), and let
B be the event that a person has DBP (75 ≤ DBP
≤ 100), then events A and B are not mutually
exclusive, because they both occur when 90 ≤
DBP ≤ 100.

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 Independent
Events
 Two events A and B are independent if the
probability of the first one happening is the same
no matter how the second one happen (OR The
outcome of one event has no effect on the
occurrence or non-occurrence of the other).

 Example:
– The outcomes on the first and second coin
tosses are independent

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 Example:
 Hypertension, Genetics: Suppose we are conducting a
hypertension-screening program in the home. Consider all
possible pairs of DBP measurements of the mother and
father within a given family, assuming that the mother and
father are not genetically related. In particular, we might be
interested in whether the mother or father is hypertensive,
which is described, respectively, by events A = {mother’s
DBP ≥ 95}, B = {father’s DBP≥ 95}.
– If the primary determinants of elevated blood pressure
were genetic, the probability that both mother and father
are hypertensive are independent (the hypertensive
status of the mother does not depend at all on the
hypertensive status of the father)
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 Intersection, and
union
 The intersection of two events A and B, A ∩ B,
is the event that A and B happen simultaneously
P ( A and B ) = P (A ∩ B )

 Let A represent the event that a randomly

selected newborn is LBW, and B the event that
he or she is from a multiple birth

 The intersection of A and B is the event that the

infant is both low birth weight and from a multiple
birth
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 The union of A and B, A U B, is the event that
either A happens or B happens or they both
happen simultaneously
P ( A or B ) = P ( A U B )

 In the example above, the union of A and B is the

event that the newborn is either low birth weight or
from a multiple birth, or both

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 Properties of
Probability
1. The numerical value of a probability always lies
between 0 and 1, inclusive
0  P(E)  1
 A value 0 means the event can not occur

 A value 1 means the event definitely will occur

e.g., The probability that everybody dies eventually

 A value of 0.5 means that the probability that the

event will occur is the same as the probability that
it will not occur 27
Properties of Probability
2. The sum of the probabilities of all mutually
exclusive outcomes is equal to 1.
P(E1) + P(E2 ) + .... + P(En ) = 1.

3. For two mutually exclusive events A and B,

P(A or B ) = P(A) + P(B).

If not mutually exclusive:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

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Properties of Probability

4. The complement of an event A, denoted by Ā or

Ac, is the event that A does not occur

 Consists of all the outcomes in which event A does

NOT occur
P(Ā) = P(not A) = 1 – P(A)

 These are complementary events

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 Example, Let A represent the event that a randomly
selected newborn is LBW, the complement of A is
the event that a randomly selected newborn is not
LBW

P(Ā) = 1 − P(A)

P(not low birth weight) = 1 − P(low birth weight)

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 Example:

 Let A be the event that a randomly selected

newborn is LBW and suppose Pr(A) = 0.2, then
what is the probability that a randomly selected
newborn is not LBW?

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 Basic Probability
Rules
1. Addition rule
 If events A and B are mutually exclusive:
– P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
– P(A and B) = 0

 More generally:
– If A and B are any events, then P(A or B) =
P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
– P(event A or event B occurs or they both
occur)
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Example: The probabilities below represent years of
schooling completed by mothers of newborn infants

33
a. What is the probability that a mother has
completed < 12 years of schooling?

b. What is the probability that a mother has

completed 12 or more years of schooling?

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 What is the probability that a mother has
completed < 12 years of schooling?
P( 8 years) = 0.056 and
P(9-11 years) = 0.159

 Since these two events are mutually exclusive,

P( 8 or 9-11) = P( 8 U 9-11)
= P( 8) + P(9-11)
= 0.056+0.159
= 0.215

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 What is the probability that a mother has
completed 12 or more years of schooling?
P(12) = P(12 or 13-15 or 16)
= P(12 U 13-15 U 16)
= P(12)+P(13-15)+P(16)
= 0.321+0.218+0.230
= 0.769

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2. Multiplication rule
 If A and B are independent events, then
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)
 Two events A and B are called dependent events if
P(A ∩ B) ≠ P(A) × P(B)

 More generally:
- If A and B are any events, then P(A ∩ B) = P(A)
P(B|A) = P(B) P(A|B)
- P(A and B) denotes the probability that A and B
both occur at the same time.

37
 Example:
 Hypertension, Genetics: Suppose we are conducting a
hypertension-screening program in the home. Consider all
possible pairs of DBP measurements of the mother and
father within a given family, assuming that the mother and
father are not genetically related. In particular, we might be
interested in whether the mother or father is hypertensive,
which is described, respectively, by events A = {mother’s
DBP ≥ 95}, B = {father’s DBP ≥ 95}. Suppose that Pr(A) =
0.1, Pr(B) = 0.2. If the primary determinants of elevated
blood pressure were genetic, then what is the probability
that both mother and father are hypertensive?

38
 Example:
 Hypertension, Genetics: Consider all possible
DBP measurements from a mother and her first-
born child. Let event A = {mother’s DBP ≥ 95}, B =
{first-born child’s DBP ≥ 80}. Suppose Pr(A ∩ B) =
0.05, Pr(A) = 0.1, Pr(B) = 0.2

 Then, are A and B independent events?

39
 Conditional
Probability
 Refers to the probability of an event, given that
another event is known to have occurred

 ―What happened first is assumed‖

 Hint - When thinking about conditional probabilities,

think in stages. Think of the two events A and B
occurring chronologically, one after the other

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 The conditional probability that event B has
occurred given that event A has already occurred
is denoted P(B|A) and is defined

provided that P(A) ≠ 0.

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 Example:
 Hypertension, Genetics: Consider all possible
DBP measurements from a mother and her first-
born child. Let event A = {mother’s DBP ≥ 95}, B =
{first-born child’s DBP ≥ 80}. Suppose Pr(A ∩ B) =
0.05, Pr(A) = 0.1, Pr(B) = 0.2

 Then, what is the probability that a first-born child

is hypertensive given that her/his mother is
hypertensive?

42
Example: A study investigating the effect of prolonged
exposure to bright light on retina damage in premature
infants

Retinopathy Retinopathy TOTAL

YES NO
Bright light 18 3 21
Reduced light 21 18 39
TOTAL 39 21 60

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a. What is the probability of developing retinopathy?

b. What is the probability of developing retinopathy

given exposure to bright light?

c. What is the probability of developing retinopathy

given exposure to reduced light?

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 The probability of developing retinopathy is:

P (Retinopathy) = # of infants with retinopathy

Total # of infants
= (18+21)/(21+39)
= 0.65

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 We want to compare the probability of
retinopathy, given that the infant was exposed to
bright light, with that the infant was exposed to
reduced light.

 Exposure to bright light and exposure to reduced

light are conditioning events, events we want to
take into account when calculating conditional
probabilities.

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 The conditional probability of retinopathy, given
exposure to bright light, is:

P(Retinopathy/exposure to bright light) =

# of infants with retinopathy exposed to bright light
# of infants exposed to bright light

= 18/21 = 0.86

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 P(Retinopathy/exposure to reduced light) =

# of infants with retinopathy exposed to reduced light

# of infants exposed to reduced light

= 21/39 = 0.54

 The conditional probabilities suggest that premature

infants exposed to bright light have a higher risk of
retinopathy than premature infants exposed to
reduced light.

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 Test for
Independence
 Two events A and B  Two events A and B
are independent if: are dependent if

P(B|A)=P(B) P(B|A) ≠P(B)

or or
P(A and B) = P(A) ×P(B) P(A and B) ≠P(A) × P(B)

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REVIEWQUESTIONS

 What is the frequency definition of probability?

 What is the difference between independent and

dependent events?

 What are mutually exclusive events?

 What is the addition law of probability?

 What is conditional probability?

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 Probability
Distributions
 A probability distribution is a table, graph, or
mathematical formula that describes the possible
values of the random variable and their
corresponding probabilities

 Random Variable = Any quantity or characteristic

that is able to assume a number of different values
such that any particular outcome is determined by
chance

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 Random variables can be either discrete or
continuous
 A discrete random variable is able to assume
only a finite or countable number of outcomes
 A continuous random variable can take on any
value in a specified interval

 With categorical variables, we obtain the frequency

distribution of each variable

 With numeric variables, the aim is to determine

whether or not normality may be assumed
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 A. Discrete Probability
Distributions
 A discrete random variable is a variable that can
assume only a finite or countable number of
outcomes
 Many possible outcomes:
- # of children per woman
- # of bacteria colonies on a plate
- # of episode of diarrhea a child has had in a year
 Only two possible outcomes:
- Gender: male or female

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A. Discrete Probability
Distributions
 For a discrete random variable, the probability
distribution specifies each of the possible
outcomes of the random variable along with the
probability that each will occur

 Examples can be:

– Frequency distribution
– Relative frequency distribution
– Cumulative frequency

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 We represent a potential outcome of the random
variable X by x

 Let P(X = x) denote the probability the random

variable X equals x, then

0 ≤ P(X = x) ≤ 1 and
∑ P(X = x) = 1

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The following data shows the number of diagnostic
services a patient receives

56
 What is the probability that a patient receives
exactly 3 diagnostic services?

 What is the probability that a patient receives at

most one diagnostic service?

 What is the probability that a patient receives at

least four diagnostic services?

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 What is the probability that a patient receives
exactly 3 diagnostic services?
P(X=3) = 0.031

 What is the probability that a patient receives at

most one diagnostic service?
P (X≤1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)
= 0.671 + 0.229
= 0.900

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 What is the probability that a patient receives at
least four diagnostic services?
P (X≥4) = P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)
= 0.010 + 0.006
= 0.016

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Probability distributions can also be displayed
using a graph

60
 Examples of discrete probability distributions are
the binomial distribution and the Poisson
distribution.

61
 1. Binomial
Distribution
 It is one of the most widely encountered discrete
probability distributions

 Consider dichotomous random variable

 When a single trial of some experiment can

result in only one of two mutually exclusive
outcomes (success or failure; dead or alive; sick
or well, male or female)

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 Example:
 We are interested in determining whether a
newborn infant will survive until his/her 70th
birthday

 Let Y represent the survival status of the child at

age 70 years

 Y = 1 if the child survives and Y = 0 if he/she does

not

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 The outcomes are mutually exclusive and
exhaustive

 Suppose that 72% of infants born survive to age

70 years
P(Y = 1) = p = 0.72
P(Y = 0) = 1 − p = 0.28

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65
 Characteristics of a
Binomial Distribution
 The experiment consist of n identical trials.
 Only two possible outcomes on each trial.
 The probability of A (success) remains the same
from trial to trial. This probability is denoted by p,
and the probability of B (failure) is denoted by q.
q = 1- p.
 The trials are independent.
 n and  are the parameters of the binomial
distribution.
 The mean is n and the variance is n(1- )
66
 Suppose an event can have only binary
outcomes A and B.

 Let the probability of A is  and that of B is 1 - .

 The probability  stays the same each time the

event occurs.

67
 If an experiment repeated n times and the outcome
is independent from one trial to another, the
probability that outcome A occurs exactly x times
is: n = number of trials

n x
P(X  x)   p (1  p)n  x , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n.
 
x

X = number
of successes p = probability
out of n trials of success
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  
n n!
 
 x  x!(n  x)!
n! n x
P( X  x)  p (1  p )
x

x!(n  x)!

 Where n!=n(n-1)(n-2)…(2)(1) , and 0!=1

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 Example:
 Suppose we know that 40% of a certain population
are cigarette smokers. If we take a random sample
of 10 people from this population, what is the
probability that we will have exactly 4 smokers in
our sample?

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 If we assume that the probability that any individual
in the population is a smoker to be P= 0.40, then
the probability that x=4 smokers out of n=10
subjects selected is:

 P(X=4) =10C4(.4)4(1- 0.4)10-4

= 10C4(.4)4(.6)6 = 210(.0256)(.04666)
= 0.25
 Or the probability of obtaining exactly 4 smokers in
the sample is about 25%.

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 We can compute the probability of observing zero
smokers out of 10 subjects selected at random,
exactly 1 smoker, and so on, and display the results
in a table, as given, below.

 The third column, P(X ≤ x), gives the cumulative

probability.
E.g. The probability of selecting 3 or fewer
smokers into the sample of 10 subjects is
P(X ≤ 3) =.3822, or about 38%.
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Binomial Probability Distribution for n=10, p=0.4
x P(X=x) P(X ≤ x)

0 0.0060 0.0060
1 0.0403 0.0463
2 0.1209 0.1672
3 0.2150 0.3822
4 0.2508 0.6330
5 0.2007 0.8337
6 0.1115 0.9452
7 0.0425 0.9877
8 0.0106 0.9983
9 0.0016 0.9999
10 0.0001 1.000
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 Exercise
 Each child born to a particular set of parents has
a probability of 0.25 of having blood type O. If
these parents have 5 children.
What is the probability that,
a. Exactly two of them have blood type O
b. At most 2 have blood type O
c. At least 4 have blood type O
d. 2 do not have blood type O

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 2. Poisson
Distribution
 Is the second most frequently used discrete
probability distribution

Is used to model for the probability distribution of

the number of ―rare events‖ that occur randomly in
a given interval of time, or space

 Assume that an interval is divided into a very large

number of subintervals so that the probability of the
occurrence of an event in any subinterval is very
small
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 Poisson
Distribution
 Applicable for counts of events over a given
interval of time, for example:

Number of children with burns arriving at an

Emergency Department in a day

Number of new cases of HIV diagnosed at a

clinic in a month

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 Poisson
Distribution
In such cases, we take a sample of days
and observe the number of patients arriving
at the emergency department on each day,

or a sample of months and observe the number of

new cases of HIV diagnosed at the clinic

 We are observing a count or number of events,

rather than a yes/no or success/ failure outcome
for each trial, as in the binomial
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 Poisson
Distribution
 Three assumptions must be met for a Poisson
distribution to apply. Consider any small
subinterval of the time period t, denoted by ∆t.

(1) The probability that a single event occurs

within a given small subinterval is directly
proportional to the length of the time interval ∆t.
That is, P(event) ≈ λ∆t for some constant λ

78
 Poisson
Distribution
 Assumptions...
(2) The rate at which the event occurs is constant
throughout the entire time interval t

(3) Events occurring in consecutive subintervals are

independent of each other

79
 Poisson
Distribution
 If events happen at a constant rate over time, the
Poisson distribution gives the probability of x
number of events occurring in time t

 The distribution tells us the probability of all

possible numbers of events, from 0 to infinity

80
 Poisson
Pr(X=x) Distribution

x
81
 Poisson
Distribution
 Suppose events happen randomly and
independently in time at a constant rate. If events
happen with rate λ events per unit time, the
probability of x events happening in unit time is:

 t
(t ) ex
p( X  x)  , for x  0,1,2,...
x!

82
 Poisson
Distribution
 Where,
x is a potential outcome of X

 represents the rate at which the event

occurs, or the expected number of events, per
unit time

e = 2.71828

83
 Poisson mean and
variance

 Mean


 Variance and Standard Deviation

 
2

 
For a Poisson random variable, the variance and
mean are the same!
84
 Example
 In a given geographical area, cases of tetanus
are reported at a rate of 4 per two months.
a) What is the probability that no cases of tetanus
will be reported in a given month?

b) What is the probability that 2 cases of tetanus

will be reported in a given month?

c) What is the probability that 1 case of tetanus

will be reported per month?

d) What is the probability that at least 1 case of tetanus

will be reported per month
85
 Poisson Distribution:
Solution

0 4
4 e
a ) p ( X  0)   0.0183
0!
2 4
4 e
b) p ( X  2)   0.1465
2!
c)   4 per 2 months;   2 per month
1 2
2 e
p ( X  1)   0.2707
1!
86
B. Continuous Probability
Distributions

 A continuous random variable can take on any

value in a specified interval or range

 With a large number of class intervals, the

frequency polygon begins to resemble a
smooth curve.

 The probability distribution of X is represented by

a smooth curve called a probability density
function

87
 The area under the smooth curve is equal to 1

 The area under the curve between any two points

x1 and x2 is the probability that X takes a value
between x1 and x2
88
 Instead of assigning probabilities to specific
outcomes of the random variable X, probabilities
are assigned to ranges of values

 The probability associated with any one particular

value is equal to 0

89
 We calculate:
Pr [ a < X < b], the probability of an
interval of values of X

 For the above reason,

is also without meaning.

90
 The Normal
distribution
 The ND is the most important probability
distribution in statistics

 Frequently called the ―Gaussian distribution‖ or

bell-shape curve

 Variables such as blood pressure, weight, height,

serum cholesterol level, and IQ score are
approximately normally distributed

91
 A random variable is said to have a normal
distribution if it has a probability distribution that is
symmetric and bell shaped

92
 The real importance of the ND will be seen in the
areas of estimation and hypothesis testing

 The concept of ―probability of X=x‖ in the discrete

probability distribution is replaced by the ―probability
density function f(x)

93
 A random variable X is said to follow normal
distribution, if and only if, its probability density
function is:

2
1  x - 
1   
2   , - < x < .
f(x) = e
 2

94
 π (pi) = 3.14159
 e = 2.71828, x = Value of X
 Range of possible values of X: -∞ to +∞
 µ = Expected value of X (―the long run average‖)
 σ2 = Variance of X.
 µ and σ are the parameters of the normal
distribution — they completely define its shape

95
 The normal distribution with mean µ and
variance σ2 is represented by N(µ and σ2 )

 To find P(X ≤ x), we would have to draw the

probability density function of N(µ and σ2 ) and
determine the area to the left of x

96
1. The mean µ tells you about location -
– Increase µ - Location shifts right
– Decrease µ – Location shifts left
– Shape is unchanged
2. The variance σ2 tells you about narrowness
or flatness of the bell -
– Increase σ2 - Bell flattens. Extreme values are
more likely
– Decrease σ2 - Bell narrows. Extreme values are
less likely
– Location is unchanged

97
98
 Properties of the
Normal Distribution

1. It is symmetrical about its mean, .

2. The mean, the median and mode are all equal. It
is unimodal.
3. The total area under the curve about the x-axis is
1 square unit.
4. The curve never touches the x-axis.
5. As the value of  increases, the curve becomes
more and more flat and vice versa.

99
6. If the data distribution is bell-shaped, then the
interval:

µ ± SD contain about 68%;

µ ±2 SD contain about 95%;
µ ±3 SD contain about 99.7% of the area
under the curve.
Next slide

100
 Standard distribution in
normal distribution curve

101
7. The distribution is completely determined by the
parameters  and .

As a result, we have different normal distributions

depending on the values of μ and σ2
 We cannot tabulate every possible distribution

 Tabulated normal probability calculations are

available only for the Normal Distribution with µ = 0
and σ2=1.

102
 Standard Normal
Distribution

 It is a normal distribution that has a mean equal to

0 and a SD equal to 1, and is denoted by N(0, 1)

 The main idea is to standardize all the data that is

given by using Z-scores

 These Z-scores can then be used to find the area

(and thus the probability) under the normal curve.

103
 Z-transformation: If a random variable X~N(,)
then we can transform it to a SND with the help of
Z-transformation

Z= x-


 Z represents the Z-score for a given x value

104
 Consider redefining the scale to be in terms of how
many SDs away from mean for normal distribution,
μ=110 and σ=15

Value x
50 65 80 95 110 125 140 155 170
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
SDs from mean using
(x-110)/σ = (x-μ)/σ

105
 This process is known as standardization and
gives the position on a normal curve with μ=0
and σ=1, i.e., the SND, Z.

 A Z-score is the number of standard deviations

that a given x value is above or below the mean.

106
 Finding normal
curve areas
1. The table gives areas between -∞ and the value
of z for P(X ≤ x), and gives areas between the
value of z and +∞ for P(X ≥ x).
.

2. Find the z value in tenths in the column at left

margin and locate its row. Find the hundredths
place in the appropriate column.

3. Read the value of the area (P) from the body of

the table where the row and column intersect.

107
a) What is the probability that z < -1.96?

(1) Sketch a normal curve

(2) Draw a line for z = -1.96
(3) Find the area in the table
(4) The answer is the area to the left of the line P(z
< -1.96) = .0250

108
b) What is the probability that z > 1.96?

 The answer is the area to the right of the line; found by

subtracting table value from 1.0000; P(z > 1.96)
=1.0000 - .9750 = .0250

109
c) What is the probability that -1.96 < z < 1.96?

 The area between the values P(-1.96 < z < 1.96)

= .9750 - .0250 = .9500

110
111
 Applications of the
Normal Distribution
 The normal distribution is used as a model to
study many different variables.

 We can use the normal distribution to answer

probability questions about continuous random
variables.

 Following the model of the normal distribution, a

given value of x must be converted to a z score
before it can be looked up in the z table.

112
 Example:

 The diastolic blood pressures of males 35–44

years of age are normally distributed with µ = 80
mm Hg and σ = 12 mm Hg

 Let individuals with DBP above 95 mm Hg are

considered to be hypertensive

113
a) What is the probability that a randomly selected
male has a blood pressure above 95 mm Hg?

b) What is the probability that a randomly selected

male has a DBP above 110 mm Hg?

c) What is the probability that a randomly selected

male has a DBP below 60 mm Hg?

d) What value of DBP cuts off the upper 5% of this

population?
e) What is the probability that a randomly selected
male has a DBP within ± 1SD?
114
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected
male has a blood pressure above 95 mm Hg?

 Approximately 10.6% of this population would be

classified as hypertensive

115
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected
male has a DBP above 110 mm Hg?

Z = 110 – 80 = 2.50
12

P (Z > 2.50) = 0.0062

 Approximately 0.6% of the population has a DBP
above 110 mm Hg

116
c. What is the probability that a randomly selected
male has a DBP below 60 mm Hg?
Z = 60 – 80 = -1.67
12

P (Z < -1.67) = 0.0475

 Approximately 4.8% of the population has a
DBP below 60 mm Hg

117
d. What value of DBP cuts off the upper 5% of this
population?
 Looking at the table, the value Z = 1.645 cuts off
an area of 0.05 in the upper tail
 We want the value of X that corresponds to Z =
1.645
Z=X–μ
σ
1.645 = X – μ, X = 99.7
σ
 Approximately 5% of the men in this population
have a DBP greater than 99.7 mm Hg

118
 Exercise
 Hypertension: Suppose a mild hypertensive is
defined as a person whose DBP is between 90 and
100 mm Hg inclusive, and the subjects are 35- to
44-year-old men whose blood pressures are
normally distributed with mean 80 and variance
144. What is the probability that a randomly
selected person from this population will be a mild
hypertensive?

119
 Exercise
 Suppose the distribution of serum-cholesterol
level is normally distributed, with mean = 220
mg/dL and standard deviation = 35 mg/dL. What
is the probability that serum-cholesterol level
will range from 200 to 250 inclusive (that is, a
high normal range)?

120
Exercise

121
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