Meaning and definition of Probability

As the Oxford dictionary states it, Probability means ‘The extent to

which something is probable; the likelihood of something
happening or being the case’.

In mathematics too, probability indicates the same – the likelihood

of the occurrence of an event.

Examples of events can be :

● Tossing a coin with the head up

● Drawing a red pen from a pack of different coloured pens
● Drawing a card from a deck of 52 cards etc.

Either an event will occur for sure, or not occur at all. Or there are
possibilities to different degrees the event may occur.

An event that occurs for sure is called a Certain event and its
probability is 1.

An event that doesn’t occur at all is called an impossible event and

its probability is 0.

This means that all other possibilities of an event occurrence lie

between 0 and 1.

This is depicted as follows:

0 <= P(A) <= 1

where A is an event and P(A) is the probability of the occurrence of

the event.

This also means that a probability value can never be negative.

Every event will have a set of possible outcomes. It is called the

‘sample space’.

Consider the example of tossing a coin.

When a coin is tossed, the possible outcomes are Head and Tail. So,
the sample space is represented as {H, T}.

Similarly when two coins are tossed, the sample space is {(H,H),
(H,T), (T,H), (T,T)}.

The probability of head each time you toss the coin is 1/2. So is the
probability of tail.

Basic formula of probability

Probability of the occurrence of an event A is defined as:

P(A) = (No. of ways A can occur)/(Total no. of possible

outcomes)
=favorable no of cases/total no of cases

Another example is the rolling of dice. When a single die is rolled,

the sample space is {1,2,3,4,5,6}.

What is the probability of rolling a 5 when a die is rolled?

No. of ways it can occur = 1

Total no. of possible outcomes = 6

So the probability of rolling a particular number when a die is

rolled = 1/6.

Compound probability
Compound probability is when the problem statement asks for the
likelihood of the occurrence of more than one outcome.

Formula for compound probability

● P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
where A and B are any two events.

P(A or B) is the probability of the occurrence of atleast one of the

events.

P(A and B) is the probability of the occurrence of both A and B at

the same time.

Mutually exclusive events:

Mutually exclusive events are those where the occurrence of one
indicates the non-occurrence of the other

OR

When two events cannot occur at the same time, they are
considered mutually exclusive.

Note: For a mutually exclusive event, P(A and B) = 0.

Example 1: What is the probability of getting a 2 or a 5 when a die

is rolled?

Solution:

Taking the individual probabilities of each number, getting a 2 is

1/6 and so is getting a 5.

Applying the formula of compound probability,

Probability of getting a 2 or a 5,

P(2 or 5) = P(2) + P(5) – P(2 and 5)

==> 1/6 + 1/6 – 0

==> 2/6 = 1/3.

Example 2: Consider the example of finding the probability of
selecting a black card or a 6 from a deck of 52 cards.

Solution:

We need to find out P(B or 6)

Probability of selecting a black card = 26/52

Probability of selecting a 6 = 4/52

Probability of selecting both a black card and a 6 = 2/52

P(B or 6) = P(B) + P(6) – P(B and 6)

= 26/52 + 4/52 – 2/52

= 28/52

= 7/13.

Independent and Dependent Events

Independent Event
When multiple events occur, if the outcome of one event DOES
NOT affect the outcome of the other events, they are called
independent events.

Say, a die is rolled twice. The outcome of the first roll doesn’t affect
the second outcome. These two are independent events.

Example 1: Say, a coin is tossed twice. What is the probability of

getting two consecutive tails ?

Probability of getting a tail in one toss = 1/2

The coin is tossed twice. So 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 is the answer.

Here’s the verification of the above answer with the help of sample
space.

When a coin is tossed twice, the sample space is {(H,H), (H,T),

(T,H), (T,T)}.

Our desired event is (T,T) whose occurrence is only once out of four
possible outcomes and hence, our answer is 1/4.

Example 2: Consider another example where a pack contains 4

blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If a pen is drawn at random from the
pack, replaced and the process repeated 2 more times, What is the
probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen?

Solution: P (AB) =p(A) * P(B)

P(Blueblueblack) =p(blue)*p(blue)*p(black) = 4/9*4/9*3/9

=48/729

Here, total number of pens = 9

Probability of drawing 1 blue pen = 4/9

Probability of drawing another blue pen = 4/9

Probability of drawing 1 black pen = 3/9

Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen = 4/9 * 4/9 * 3/9
= 48/729 = 16/243

Example 2: Consider another example where a pack contains 4

blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If a pen is drawn at random from the
pack, without replacement and the process repeated 2 more times,
What is the probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen?

Solution

Total pens= 9
p(1 blue pen) =4/9

Left pen =8

Left blue pen= 3

p(2 blue pen) =

Left pen= 7

p(3 black)=3/7

P(blueblueblack) =p(blue)*p(blue)*p(black) = 4/9 * 3/ 8 *3/7

=36/504

If the probability that a problem will be solved by three people is

1/2, 1/3 and 1/6, then what is the probability that the problem
will be solved?

Solution : Let A, B and C be the three persons

p(A) =½ ; p(not A) = 1- P(A) = 1- ½ = 1/2

p(B) = ; P(not B) =1- P(B) = 1- =2/3

p(C) = ; P( not C) = 1-P(C) =1- =

P(problem will be solved) + P( problem will not be solved) = 1

P(will be solved) = 1- P (problem will not be solved)

=1-P( not A not B not C)

= 1- P(not A)*p(not B)*p(not C)

 = 1- ½**

=1- 5/18

=13/18

p(A) =½ ; p(not A) = 1- P(A) = 1- ½ = 1/2

p(B) = ; P(not B) =1- P(B) = 1- =2/3

p(C) = ; P( not C) = 1-P(C) =1- =

P(problem will be solved) = P(A not BC) +P(B not AC) +

P(C not AB) + P( AB not C) +P ( AC not B) + P(BC not A)+P(ABC)

= ½ ** + *½*+ *½*+ ½** + ½** + **½ + ½**

=13/18
Dependent Events
When two events occur, if the outcome of one event affects the
outcome of the other, they are called dependent events.

Consider the aforementioned example of drawing a pen from a

pack, with a slight difference.

Example 1: A pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If 2

pens are drawn at random from the pack, NOT replaced and then
another pen is drawn. What is the probability of drawing 2 blue
pens and 1 black pen?

Solution:

Probability of drawing 1 blue pen = 4/9

Probability of drawing another blue pen = 3/8

Probability of drawing 1 black pen = 3/7

Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen = 4/9 * 3/8 * 3/7
= 1/14

Let’s consider another example:

Example 2: What is the probability of drawing a king and a queen

consecutively from a deck of 52 cards, without replacement.

Probability of drawing a king = 4/52 = 1/13

After drawing one card, the number of cards are 51.

Probability of drawing a queen = 4/51.

Now, the probability of drawing a king and queen consecutively is

1/13 * 4/51 = 4/663
Conditional probability
Conditional probability is calculating the probability of an event
given that another event has already occured .

The formula for conditional probability P(A|B), read as P(A given B)

is

P(A|B) = P (A and B) / P(B)

Consider the following example:

Example: In a class, 40% of the students study math and science.

60% of the students study math. What is the probability of a
student studying science given he/she is already studying math?

P(S/M) =P (S and M)/P(M)

Solution

P(M and S) = 40% =40/100= 0.40

P(M) = 60% =60/100 =0.60

P(S/M) =P (S and M)/P(M)

0.40/0.60 = 2/3 = 0.67

Complement of an event
A complement of an event A can be stated as that which does NOT
contain the occurrence of A.

A complement of an event is denoted as P(Ac) or P(A’).

P(A) ; P(A’) = 1 -P(A) = P(not A)

P(Ac) = 1 – P(A)
or it can be stated, P(A)+P(Ac) = 1
For example,

if A is the event of getting a head in coin toss, Ac is not getting a

head i.e., getting a tail.

if A is the event of getting an even number in a die roll, A c is the

event of NOT getting an even number i.e., getting an odd number.

if A is the event of randomly choosing a number in the range of -3

to 3, Ac is the event of choosing every number that is NOT negative
i.e., 0,1,2 & 3 (0 is neither positive or negative).

Consider the following example:

Example: A single coin is tossed 5 times. What is the probability of

getting at least one head?

Solution:

Consider solving this using complement.

Probability of getting no head = P(all tails) = 1/32

P(at least one head) = 1 – P(all tails) = 1 – 1/32 = 31/32.

Sample Probability questions with solutions

Probability Example 1
What is the probability of the occurrence of a number that is odd or
less than 5 when a fair die is rolled.

Solution

Let the event of the occurrence of a number that is odd be ‘A’ and
the event of the occurrence of a number that is less than 5 be ‘B’.
We need to find P(A or B).
P(A) = 3/6 (odd numbers = 1,3 and 5)

P(B) = 4/6 (numbers less than 5 = 1,2,3 and 4)

P(A and B) = 2/6 (numbers that are both odd and less than 5 = 1
and 3)

Now, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A or B)

= 3/6 + 4/6 – 2/6

P(A or B) = 5/6.

Probability Example 2
A box contains 4 chocobars and 4 ice creams. Tom eats 3 of them
one after another. What is the probability of sequentially choosing
2 chocobars and 1 icecream?

Solution

Probability of choosing 1 chocobar = 4/8 = 1/2

After taking out 1 chocobar, the total number is 7.

Probability of choosing 2nd chocobar = 3/7

Probability of choosing 1 icecream out of a total of 6 = 4/6 = 2/3

So the final probability of choosing 2 chocobars and 1 icecream =

1/2 * 3/7 * 2/3 = 1/7

Probability Example 3
When two dice are rolled, find the probability of getting a greater
number on the first die than the one on the second, given that the
sum should equal 8.

Solution
Let the event of getting a greater number on the first die be G.

There are 5 ways to get a sum of 8 when two dice are rolled =
{(2,6),(3,5),(4,4), (5,3),(6,2)}.

And there are two ways where the number on the first die is
greater than the one on the second given that the sum should equal
8, G = {(5,3), (6,2)}.

Therefore, P(Sum equals 8) = 5/36 and P(G) = 2/36.

Now, P(G|sum equals 8) = P(G and sum equals 8)/P(sum

equals 8)

= (2/36)/(5/36)

= 2/5
P(A/B) =P (A and B)/P(B) ……………….. 1
Or P (A and B ) =P(A/B)*P(B)
P (B/A) = P(A and B)/P (A)............
p(A and B) = P(B/A)*P(A)------------2

P(A/B) =P (A and B)/P(B) = P (B/A)*P(A)/P(B)

P(A/B)= P (B/A)*P(A)/P(B)

What are the basic rules of probability?

If A and B are two events, then;

P(A B)=P(A)+P(B) P(A B)

P(A B)=P(B) P(A|B)

Let D = bolt is defective( 25A%, 35% B, 40% C

A, B ,C P(A) =0.25 , P (B) = 0.35 , p (C ) =.4

P(D/A) =0.05 , P ( D/B) =0.04 , P ( D/C) =0.02

P(D) = P(A)*P(D/A) + P(B) * P(D/B) +P(C)* P (D/C)

=0.25 * 0.05+ 0.35 * 0.04 + .4 * 0.02

=0.0345

(a) P( A/D) = P (A and D)/P(D)

= P(A)* P(D/A)/P(D)

= 0 .25*0.05/0.0345 =0.3623

(b)P (B/D)= P(B and D)/P(D)

= P(B)*P(D/B)/P(D)

=0.35 * 0.04/ 0.0345

=.4058

© P(C/D) = P (C and D)/P(D)

= P ©* P(D/C)/P(D)

=0.4*0.02/0.0345

=0.2319
 Question 8

A jar contains 3 red marbles, 7 green marbles and 10 white marbles. If a marble is
drawn from the jar at random, what is the probability that this marble is white?
Solution:
P(white marble) = favorable cases/total cases
= 10 /20 = 1/2

Questions and their Solutions

Question 1

A die is rolled, find the probability that an even number is obtained.

Solution

Let us first write the sample space S of the experiment.

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Let E be the event "an even number is obtained" and write it down.

E = {2,4,6}

We now use the formula of the classical probability.

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 6 = 1 / 2

Question 2

Two coins are tossed, find the probability that two heads are obtained. Note: Each coin has

two possible outcomes H (heads) and T (Tails).

Solution

The sample space S is given by.

S = {(H,T),(H,H),(T,H),(T,T)}
Let E be the event "two heads are obtained".

E = {(H,H)}

We use the formula of the classical probability.

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 1 / 4

Question 3

Which of these numbers cannot be a probability?

a) -0.00001 b) 0.5 c) 1.001 d) 0 e) 1 f) 20%

A probability is always greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1, hence only a)

and c) above cannot represent probabilities: -0.00010 is less than 0 and 1.001 is greater than

1.

Question 4
Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is

a) equal to 1 b) equal to 4 c) less than 13

Solution a) The sample space S of two dice is shown below.

S = { (1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6)

(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6)

(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6)

(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6)

(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6)

(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6) }

Total no of cases n (s) =36

(a) What is the probability that the sum of the numbers appears on the dice is 8

Let A denotes the event that the sum of the numbers appears on the dice is 8

A= { (2,6), (3,5) , (4,4) ,(5,3) ,(6,2)}

n(A) =5

P(A)= n(A)/n(s) =5/36

Let E be the event "sum equal to 1". There are no outcomes which correspond to a sum equal

to 1, hence
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 0 / 36 = 0

b) Three possible outcomes give a sum equal to 4: E = {(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)}, hence.

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 36 = 1 / 12

c) All possible outcomes, E = S, give a sum less than 13, hence.

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 36 / 36 = 1

Question 5

A die is rolled and a coin is tossed, find the probability that the die shows an odd number and

the coin shows a head.

Solution

Let H be the head and T be the tail of the coin. The sample space S of the experiment

described in question 5 is as follows

S = { (1,H),(2,H),(3,H),(4,H),(5,H),(6,H)

(1,T),(2,T),(3,T),(4,T),(5,T),(6,T)}
Let E be the event "the die shows an odd number and the coin shows a head". Event E may

be described as follows

E={(1,H),(3,H),(5,H)}

The probability P(E) is given by

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 12 = 1 / 4

Total cards = 52

26 cards of black colour and

13 club and 13 spade
26 cards of red colour
13 heart and 13 diamond
4 suits of card ;

2,3 ,4 ,5 ,6 ,7 , 8 ,9 , 10 , jack, queen, king , ace

Court cards = jack+queen+king = face cards
Deuce = card number 2

Question 6

A card is drawn at random from a deck of cards. Find the probability of getting the 3 of

diamond.

Solution

Total cards = n(S) =52

A= 3 of diamond

n(A) =1

p(A) = 1/52

The sample space S of the experiment in question 6 is shwon below

Let E be the event "getting the 3 of diamond". An examination of the sample space shows that

there is one "3 of diamond" so that n(E) = 1 and n(S) = 52. Hence the probability of event E

occurring is given by

P(E) = 1 / 52
Question 7

A card is drawn at random from a deck of cards. Find the probability of getting a queen.

Total cards =52

Queen = 4

P (queen) = 4 /52 = 1/13

Solution

The sample space S of the experiment in question 7 is shwon above (see question 6)

Let E be the event "getting a Queen". An examination of the sample space shows that there

are 4 "Queens" so that n(E) = 4 and n(S) = 52. Hence the probability of event E occurring is

given by

P(E) = 4 / 52 = 1 / 13

Question 8
A jar contains 3 red marbles, 7 green marbles and 10 white marbles. If a marble is drawn from

the jar at random, what is the probability that this marble is white?

Solution

We first construct a table of frequencies that gives the marbles color distributions as follows

color frequency

red 3

green 7

white 10

We now use the empirical formula of the probability

P(E) = Frequency for white color / Total frequencies in the above table

= 10 / 20 = 1 / 2
Q:
A problem is given to three students whose chances of solving it are 1/2, 1/3 and
1/4 respectively. What is the probability that the problem will be solved?
Q:
Tickets numbered 1 to 20 are mixed up and then a ticket is drawn at random.
What is the probability that the ticket drawn has a number which is a multiple of 3
or 5?

Explanation:
Here, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, ...., 19, 20}.
Let E = event of getting a multiple of 3 or 5 = {3, 6 , 9, 12, 15, 18, 5, 10, 20}.
P(E) = n(E)/n(S) = 9/20.

Q:
A bag contains 6 white and 4 black balls .2 balls are drawn at random. Find the
probability that they are of same colour.
Q:
A bag contains 4 white, 5 red and 6 blue balls. Three balls are drawn at random
from the bag. The probability that all of them are red, is:

Q:
A man and his wife appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same post. The
probability of husband's selection is (1/7) and the probability of wife's selection is
(1/5). What is the probability that only one of them is selected ?
Q:
One card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that
the card drawn is a face card (Jack, Queen and King only)?

Explanation:
Clearly, there are 52 cards, out of which there are 12 face cards.
P (getting a face card) = 12/52=3/13.
Q:
Two cards are drawn together from a pack of 52 cards. The probability that one is
a spade and one is a heart, is:

Q:
 A bag contains 6 black and 8 white balls. One ball is drawn at random. What is the
probability that the ball drawn is white?

Explanation:
Let number of balls = (6 + 8) = 14.
Number of white balls = 8.
P (drawing a white ball) = 8 /14 = 4/7.

Q:
In a class, there are 15 boys and 10 girls. Three students are selected at random.
The probability that 1 girl and 2 boys are selected, is:

Q:
In a class, 30% of the students offered English, 20% offered Hindi and 10% of

fered both.
If a student is selected at random, what is the probability that he. has offered
English or Hindi ?