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NMDC Company Update: Profitability Outlook

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NMDC Company Update: Profitability Outlook

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ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 6 December 2024 | 1

CMP : INR 235 COMPANY UPDATE


Reco
Target Price
: BUY çè
: INR 294 çè
NMDC
Target Price Change : No Change Volume expansion and firm pricing to support profitability
Target FY27 EV/EBITDA (x) : 6
NMDC has recently taken a couple of price hikes, cumulatively amounting to
EBITDA Change FY25/ 26/ 27 : No Change INR 1,000 per ton for lumps and INR 800 per ton for fines, in the month of
October 2024. Current fine prices are at a discount of ~40% to international
ore prices (broadly in line with the long term average level of 42.2%; strong
domestic demand provides support to current price levels). A CNY 10 trn
(USD 1.4 trn) debt package should ease local government financing strain
and recovery in Chinese manufacturing PMI to levels above 50 after five
Pallav Agarwal
+91 22 6911 3411
months would also support international ore pricing outlook. The World Steel
[email protected] Association’s latest short range outlook forecasts Indian steel demand to
remain strong (projected to grow steadily at ~8%/ 8.5% level to 143.4 MT in
CY24, 155.6 MT in CY25). Improving capacity utilization at NMDC Steel,
resumption of one of RINL’s blast furnaces, and JSW Steel’s 5 mtpa
Vijaynagar expansion would boost sales volume FY26 onwards. Gross cash
and cash equivalents at the end of FY25 are estimated at INR 140.2 bn (~18%
Market data of current market capitalization), with the company’s aggressive capex plan
Sensex : 81,766
over the next 5–6 years to reach a production capacity of 67 mtpa by FY26
Sector : Metals
and 100 MT by FY30. We favor the company’s strong operational capacity,
Market Cap (INR bn) : 689.2
net cash position, and capacity expansion plans. Reiterate BUY rating with a
Market Cap (USD bn) : 8.133
TP of INR 294 per share at a target multiple of 6x FY27E EV/EBITDA.
O/S Shares (mn) : 2,930.6
52-wk HI/LO (INR) : 286/180
Domestic steel demand to support volume outlook
Avg. Daily Vol ('000) : 6,513 Domestic steel demand remains strong with provisional JPC (Joint Plant Committee) data
Bloomberg : NMDC IN indicating that April’24-Oct’24 domestic finished steel consumption was at 85.7 MT, growing
Source: Bloomberg 13% YoY. NMDC’s provisional sales volume for April-November’24 at 27.8 MT improved
Valuation marginally YoY with November’24 volume at 4.0 MT, improving 6% YoY. International ore
FY25e FY26e FY27e
prices at USD 106 per ton improved 4% MoM and fell 20.3% YoY. Post the price hikes in
EPS (INR) 23.4 28.6 31.3
October’24, domestic fine prices are at a 40% discount to spot international iron ore price.
P/E (x) 10.1 8.2 7.5 FY25 production target 11% higher YoY; evacuation expansion projects underway
P/BV (x) 2.3 2.0 1.7 Management has guided for FY25 production at 50 MT (11% higher YoY). NMDC Steel is
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.9 5.4 4.7 expected to break even by 3QFY25. Evacuation capacity is also being expanded in tandem
Dividend Yield (%) 4.0 4.3 4.7 to enable higher sales—Rapid Wagon Loading System at Kirandul has been completed,
Source: Company, Antique doubling of 150 km KK line is being undertaken (86% physical progress done; expected to
Returns (%) be completed by FY25 end and would raise Bailadila’s evacuation capacity from 29 mtpa to
1m 3m 6m 12m 40 mtpa). Activities for phase 1 of slurry pipeline, including 2 mtpa capacity ore processing
Absolute 0 11 (4) 29 plant at Bacheli, 15 mtpa capacity slurry pipeline system (130 km) from Bacheli to Nagarnar,
Relative (3) 11 (13) 9 and 2 mtpa pellet plant at Nagarnar are under progress (phase 1 is expected to be completed
Source: Bloomberg by FY26). A mine developer-cum-operator (MDO) has been appointed for the Tokisud North
Coal Block (operations could commence in FY26).
Shareholding pattern
Long-term growth projects to be funded through internal accruals
Promoters : 61%
FY25 capex guidance is at INR 22 bn, primarily focused on long-term capacity expansion
Public : 39%
with total capex amounting to INR 500 bn worth of projects to raise capacity to 67 mtpa by
Others : 0%
FY25 and 100 mtpa by FY30. Cash and cash equivalents at the end of FY25 are expected
Source: Bloomberg to be at INR 140.2 bn (a large part of the capex can be funded through internal accruals).
Price performance vs Nifty Repayment of INR 25 bn inter-corporate loan (pre demerger expenses incurred for NMDC
Steel) has commenced (INR 1 bn received) and the rest would be received in 12 months, post
170
break-even of NMDC Steel. Slurry pipeline is expected to be fully operational by mid CY26.
150 We expect the dividend yield to sustain at ~4%–5% over FY25–27.
130
110
Investment Summary
90 We favor NMDC’s strong operational capacity, net cash position, capacity expansion plans
Dec-23 Apr-24 Aug-24 Dec-24 (100 mtpa capacity by FY30 and long-term target of 10%–15% increase in revenue from non-
NMDC NIFTY iron ore segments like gold, magnetite, and lithium mining prospects in Australia). We maintain
Source: Bloomberg Indexed to 100 BUY rating with a TP of INR 294 per share at a target multiple of 6x FY27E EV/EBITDA.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 6 December 2024 | 2

Exhibit 1: Chinese iron ore prices stable MoM and lower YoY Exhibit 2: Chinese iron ore imports stable MoM and higher YoY
250.0 USD/ton 115 (MT)

105
200.0

95
150.0
85
100.0
75

50.0
65

- 55
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24

Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
Source: Bloomberg, Antique Source: Bloomberg, Antique

Exhibit 3: Chinese crude steel production rose MoM and YoY Exhibit 4: Chinese iron ore inventories lower MoM and higher YoY
120 (MT) 50 160 (MT)
40 140
100
30 120
80
20 100
60 10
80
0
40 60
(10)
20 40
(20)
20
0 (30)
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-24

-
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-24
China crude steel production (MT) Growth YoY% (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Antique Source: Bloomberg, Antique

Exhibit 5: NMDC lump and fine prices higher QoQ supported


by price hikes Exhibit 6: Iron ore – steel price; relative trend
9,000 300
INR per ton
8,000
250
7,000
6,000 200
5,000
150
4,000
3,000 100
2,000
50
1,000
0 -
Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-23

Nov-24
May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22

May-23

May-24
Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Dec-22

Jun-23

Dec-23

Jun-24

Dec-24
Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

Mar-24

Sep-24

NMDC prices (lumps) NMDC prices (fines) NMDC fine price Domestic HRC price
Lump premium over fine Global iron ore price
Source: Company, Steel Mint, Antique Source: Company, Steel Mint, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 6 December 2024 | 3

Exhibit 7: NMDC realization discount trend to international prices


60

50

40

30

20

10

spot
FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
NMDC discount to international prices (%) Average
Source: Steelmint, Company, Antique

Table 1: NMDC Iron Ore Reserves


Mining Lease Area in Ha ML Validity Location
Bailadila Deposit - 11 (A, B & C) 874.92 10-09-2037 Chhattisgarh
Bailadila Deposit - 14 322.37 11-09-2035 Chhattisgarh
Bailadila Deposit - 14 NMZ 506.74 06-12-2035 Chhattisgarh
Bailadila Deposit - 5 540.05 10-09-2035 Chhattisgarh
Bailadila Deposit - 10 309.34 10-09-2035 Chhattisgarh
Donimalai Iron Ore Mines 597.54 03-11-2038 Karnataka
Kumaraswamy Iron Ore Mines 639.8 17-10-2042 Karnataka
Source: Company, Antique

Table 2: Global forward relative valuations


EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) RoE (%) P/B (x)
1yr 2yr 1yr 2yr 1yr 2yr 1yr 2yr
NMDC Ltd 6.9 5.4 10.1 8.2 24.9 26.0 2.3 2.0
MOIL Ltd 9.0 6.2 16.0 11.4 17.0 20.8 2.6 2.2
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd 5.4 5.7 11.3 12.8 17.6 15.4 1.9 1.8
Vale Sa-Pref 3.4 3.3 4.8 5.0 20.4 17.1 1.0 0.9
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd 3.5 3.6 7.2 8.1 28.2 27.6 2.1 2.0
Bhp Billiton Limited 5.3 5.3 11.0 11.1 24.7 22.6 2.7 2.4
Rio Tinto Plc 4.9 4.7 9.2 9.1 19.2 18.2 1.8 1.6
Eramet 5.5 4.1 10.9 4.8 7.7 18.6 0.8 0.7
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc 11.3 6.9 256.8 110.1 (5.2) (0.4) 0.9 1.0
Anglo American Plc 6.5 6.2 17.1 15.4 9.1 9.9 1.6 1.5
Source: Bloomberg, Antique

Table 3: NMDC target price


FY27e EBITDA - INR mn 1,10,339
EV/EBITDA multiple 6.0
Target EV - INR mn 6,62,032
Add: FY27e net cash plus CWIP @0.4x 1,99,606
Target market capitalization - INR mn 8,61,638
Target price - INR per share 294
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Dec-08 Dec-08
0
2,00,000
4,00,000
6,00,000
8,00,000
10,00,000
12,00,000

Jun-09 Jun-09
(2,00,000)

(INR)
Dec-09 Dec-09

(INR)
Dec-08
Jun-10 Jun-10 Jun-09
Dec-10 Dec-10 Dec-09

Source: Bloomberg, Antique


Source: Bloomberg, Antique
Source: Bloomberg, Antique

Jun-11 Jun-11 Jun-10


(INR mn)

Exhibit 10: P/E band


Dec-11 Dec-11 Exhibit 9: P/BV band Dec-10
Jun-12 Jun-12 Jun-11
Dec-11
Exhibit 8: EV/EBITDA band

Dec-12 Dec-12
Jun-13 Jun-13 Jun-12
Dec-13 Dec-13 Dec-12
Jun-14 Jun-13
Jun-14
Dec-14 Dec-13
Dec-14
Jun-15 Jun-14
Jun-15
Dec-14
Dec-15 Dec-15
Jun-15
Jun-16 Jun-16
Dec-15
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

Dec-16 Dec-16
Jun-16
Jun-17 Jun-17
Dec-16
Dec-17 Dec-17 Jun-17
Jun-18 Jun-18 Dec-17
Dec-18 Dec-18 Jun-18
Jun-19 Jun-19 Dec-18
Dec-19 Dec-19 Jun-19
Jun-20 Jun-20 Dec-19
Dec-20 Dec-20 Jun-20
Jun-21 Jun-21 Dec-20
Dec-21 Dec-21 Jun-21
Jun-22 Jun-22 Dec-21
Dec-22 Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23 Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23 Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24 Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24 Jun-24
Dec-24 Dec-24
8x

10x
2x
4x

4x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
6x

6x
8x
6 December 2024 | 4
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 6 December 2024 | 5

Financials
Profit and loss account (INR bn) Cash flow statement (INR bn)
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Revenues 177 213 228 270 291 PBT 64 83 92 112 123
Expenses 116 139 145 169 180 Depreciation 3 3 4 4 5
EBITDA 61 74 82 101 110 Interest 1 1 1 1 1
Depreciation & amortization 3 3 4 4 5 (Inc)/ Dec in working capital (46) 24 13 (16) (11)
EBIT 57 70 79 97 105 Tax paid (21) (24) (23) (29) (31)
Other income 7 14 14 16 18 CF from operating activities 1 87 86 72 86
Interest expense 1 1 1 1 1 Capex (12) (12) (23) (23) (25)
Profit before tax 64 83 92 112 123 (Inc)/ Dec in Investments 1 (1) - - -
Extraordinaries 12 (3) - - - Income from investments 12 (3) - - -
Tax 21 24 23 29 31 CF from investing activities 2 (16) (23) (23) (25)
Profit after tax 55 56 68 84 92 Inc/ (Dec) in debt 3 12 (17) (2) -
Adjusted PAT 43 59 68 84 92 Dividends & Interest paid (19) (21) (28) (29) (32)
EPS (INR) 14.6 20.2 23.4 28.6 31.3 Others 5 (10) (1) (1) (1)
CF from financing activities (11) (19) (45) (32) (33)
Balance sheet (INR bn) Net cash flow (9) 52 18 17 28
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e Add: Opening balance 79 70 123 140 157
Share Capital 3 3 3 3 3 Closing balance 70 123 140 157 185
Reserves & Surplus 220 251 292 346 406
Networth 223 254 295 349 408 Growth indicators (%)
Debt 21 34 17 15 15 Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Deferred tax/ other liabilities (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) Revenue (32.0) 20.5 6.9 18.9 7.5

Capital Employed 242 285 309 361 421 EBITDA (52.0) 21.3 11.9 23.0 9.0

Gross Fixed Assets 52 51 61 71 81 PAT (54.6) 37.8 15.7 22.3 9.5

Accumulated Depreciation 22 20 23 28 33 EPS (54.6) 37.8 15.7 22.3 9.5

Net Assets 30 32 38 44 49
Valuation
Capital work in progress 20 32 45 58 73
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Investments 9 10 10 10 10
P/E (x) 16.0 11.6 10.1 8.2 7.5
Current Assets Loans & Advances
P/BV (x) 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.7
Inventory 27 27 17 19 20
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 8.2 6.9 5.4 4.7
Debtors 44 35 32 41 48
EV/Sales (x) 3.6 2.8 2.5 2.0 1.8
Cash & Bank 70 123 140 157 185
Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.7
Loans & advances and others 94 92 94 111 120
Current Liabilities & Provisions
Financial ratios
Creditors 38 49 50 59 63
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Provisions 14 17 17 20 22
RoE 21.3 24.8 24.9 26.0 24.2
Net Current Assets 183 211 216 249 288
RoCE 26.4 29.5 34.8 38.2 35.3
Application of Funds 242 285 309 361 421
Debt/Equity (x) (0.2) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4)

Per share data


Margins (%)
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Year-ended March 31 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
No. of shares (mn) 2,931 2,931 2,931 2,931 2,931
EBITDA 34.3 34.5 36.2 37.4 37.9
BVPS (INR) 76.2 86.7 100.5 119.1 139.4
EBIT 32.4 33.0 34.5 35.8 36.3
CEPS (INR) 15.8 21.3 24.6 30.0 32.9
PAT 24.3 27.8 30.1 30.9 31.5
DPS (INR) 6.6 7.3 9.5 10.0 11.0
Source: Company Antique
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 6 December 2024 | 6

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