PAPER

IND

2017

DISCUSSION PAPER
SUNDARBAN IN A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE:
LONG TERM ADAPTATION AND DEVELOPMENT
THE SUNDARBAN LANDSCAPE IN A GLOBAL SETTING
The Sundarban landscape/eco-region formed by the Rivers Ganga, Meghna and
Brahmaputra is the tidally active lower part of the largest delta in the world consisting
of a warren of rivers, creeks, marshes and alluvial floodplain. Morphological zones of
this lower part of the delta are the Ganga tidal plain (West) between rivers Hugli and
Baleswar, the Ganga tidal plain (East) between rivers Baleswar and Tetulia, and the
Meghna deltaic plain stretching from river Tetulia until Chittagong coastal plain. At the
confluence of the delta and the Bay of Bengal, is the single largest mangrove patch of the
world spread across about 10,300 sq km of which about 60 percent is in Bangladesh and
the rest in India. This mangrove patch is acknowledged worldwide for its outstanding
biodiversity, including the Bengal Tiger, and designated as World Heritage Site in both
the countries. This littoral mangrove forest besides serving as the habitat for about 200
tigers, accounting for five percent of the global population in the wild, also imparts
protection from storm surges caused by tropical cyclones by attenuating the impact of
cyclones that recur on sub-decadal time scales in the Bay of Bengal.

For the purpose of this discussion paper, the Sundarban landscape/eco-region

encompasses the Sundarban Reserve Forest (SRF) of about 6000 sq km (including 1397
sq km of Protected Area (PA)) and the Sundarban Impact Zone (SIZ) in Bangladesh, and
parts of Barguna and Perojpur districts outside the SIZ due to their similar characteristics
because of presence of tidal channels (Figure 1). The SIZ, as defined by the Bangladesh
Forest Department (BFD) is the inhabited area within 20 km of the forest where most
of the Sundarban resource users live. This covers an area of 3641 sq km (Hussain, M.Z.
2014). In India, the Sundarban region, designated as Sundarban Biosphere Reserve
comprises of an area of about 9,630 sq km of which around 4260 sq km is under
Reserve Forests (including about 2300 sq km of PA). In totality, the geographical area
of this region is about 19271 sq km with 19 percent as Protected Area (3697 sq km)
and 47 percent inhabited (9011 sq km), spread over parts of seven adjoining districts
(24-Parganas South and North, Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Perojpur and Barguna)
covering 40 sub-districts encompassing 327 village clusters known as Union Porishod in
Bangladesh and Gram Panchayat in India with a population of over7.2 million, largely
dependent on agriculture, fisheries and the collection of minor forest produce. To put it
in perspective, the landscape holds 0.1 percent of the global population, 137 countries/
territories have population less than the Sundarban, 67 countries/territories are smaller
in size, and only 29 nations and territories have a higher population density. The region
therefore, is globally significant not only for the natural area and biodiversity, but also for
the number of people who inhabit.

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 Figure 1

Officially, the landscape/eco-region is defined somewhat differently. The SIZ for example,
is a 20 km band from the forest in Bangladesh that does not take into account natural
features of the inhabited area. On the Indian side, the inhabited part of the eco-region
is defined by the extent of forest in the 1830s. There have been significant alterations
since that time and 29 percent of the Gram Panchayats no longer bear the defining
characteristics of the eco-region– tidal channels –and could be considered to be outside
the eco-region. On the other hand, in Bangladesh, because of the fixed distance from
forest, Unions in Upazilas that have tidal channels have been left out, for example Amtali,
Taltali, Barguna, Patharghata and Bamna in Barguna District, Mathbaria, Bhandaria
and Zianagar (renamed Indurkani in January 2017) in Perojpur District. The table in
Annexure 1 lists the eco-region based on presence of tidal channels and embankments.

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LAY OF THE LAND, SEDIMENT DYNAMICS, COMPACTION AND TROPICAL
CYCLONES
Deltas are coastal complexes characterized by the interplay between rivers, lands, and
oceans and influenced by a combination of river, tidal, and wave processes, that combine
natural systems in diverse habitats (e.g., tidal flats, salt marshes, mangroves, beaches,
estuaries, low-lying wetlands) and human systems (e.g., houses, agriculture, aquaculture,
industry, and transport). These are low-lying coastal landforms, formed by riverine
sediments in the areas around river mouths, mostly during the last 6000-8000 years of
relatively stable sea. These low-lying coastal landforms have a population density more
than 10 times the world average (Ericson et al., 2006; Foufoula-Georgiou et al., 2011).
As low-lying plains, deltas are highly sensitive to changes in the sea level and are subject
to impacts from river flows from upstream (e.g., freshwater input) and the oceans (e.g.,
sea level changes, tidal waves) as well as within the deltas. At the same time, these are
affected by human activities such as land use changes, dam construction, irrigation,
mining, extraction of subsurface resources, and urbanization (Nicholls et al., 2007).

Sea-level rise from a warming climate threatens to inundate coastlines around the world
but some of the world’s most vulnerable coasts are the ones fringing flat delta plains,
and face the far more immediate threat of sinking land(Renaud et al., 2013). Induced
mainly by human activities on a local rather than global scale, this phenomenon, known
as land subsidence, can outpace sea-level rise substantially (Schmidt, 2015).Unlike rocky
continental coasts, delta plains tend to be soft and easily compressed. These are often
propped up by underlying oil, gas, or fresh groundwater that flows through the pores of
sediment deposits. As these resources are extracted, sediments compress, and the land
shrinks like a dried sponge (ibid).

Elevation of a delta above the sea level depends on four interrelated factors: the ocean’s
global volume, aggradation, sediment compaction, and vertical movements resulting from
plate tectonics and other geophysical processes. Aggradation has been severely limited by
alteration of sediment flows by dams, levees, and embankments that trap sediments and
starve deltas of new sediments. The GBM delta is a case in point (Schmidt, 2015). Syvitski
et al. 2009, estimate that aggradation rate of the Ganga Delta has reduced by one mm
per year between early 20th century and 21st century and classify it as a delta in peril (4
on a scale of 5) characterised by reduction in aggradation and accelerated compaction in
a class of five, ranging from deltas not at risk to deltas in greater peril. Although annual
sediment delivery by the Ganga and Brahmaputra rivers to parts of the Bengal margin has
kept pace with sea level rise since the mid Holocene (Rogers et al, 2013), an abandoned

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portion of the delta west of Baleshwar river (Ganges Tidal Plain (West)) is no longer
connected to significant upstream river sources. This western portion of the lower delta
has been thought to be sediment starved. The biggest threat is that a delta will tip toward
a collapsed state, meaning that it will likely never be restored to anything remotely similar
to its natural condition. The Ganga-Brahmaputra Delta is one of several delta regions
around the world that is sinking. Time-variable relative sea level rise in the region has
been 8-18 mm/year, the range covering either different times or different areas of the
delta (Syvitski et al., 2009). The larger part of the landscape is within this abandoned
western portion including SBR in India encompassing 19 sub-districts (Blocks) with 190
village clusters (Gram Panchayats), and a population of over 4.4 million as per Census
2011, on the Bangladesh side, seven sub-districts (Upazilas) with 75 village clusters
(Unions) with a population of over 1.7million.

There are marked differences between the Average global temperature in 2016
western and eastern sides of the delta. The was 1.38°C above levels experienced
western parts of the delta are starved of in 1880 when modern record
sediment (Schiermeier, 2014), whereas net keeping began. In the Sundarban
sedimentation on the eastern part of the region average warming has been
delta (Meghna Deltaic Plain; further east of to the tune of about 1.0°C. Although
Sundarban region) traps about 10 percent of the world aspires to restrict global
annual Ganga-Brahmaputra sediment load, warming to 2.0°C, it could be closer
with accretion rates roughly equivalent to to 3.0°C with implementation of
the mean regional rate of relative sea-level Paris Agreement commitments at
rise (RSLR) of about 1.0 cm/yr. If these the end of this century. Without
sedimentation rates are representative of mitigation global average warming
longer-term trends and subsidence rates is likely to be 4.5°C. See the map
remain stable over the next century, the series in Annex 2 for corresponding
eastern lower delta plain may continue to sea level rise in the Sundarban
maintain its elevation and stability despite region. Notice that in the eastern
documented mangrove retreat around its part of the forest there is still some
seaward edges (ibid). refugia even at 4.0°C warming.

Embankments have reduced tide-related sediment deposition on the delta’s surface

resulting in siltation within tidal creeks and sediment starvation inside the embankments.
Earthen embankments were built around low-lying plots of land at different times since
the 1770s to hold back tidal water and create land for agriculture. The entire inhabited
area in Bangladesh SIZ is embanked (in the districts of Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, and
parts of Pirojpur and Barguna) while 15 of the 19 sub-districts in SBR are embanked to
the extent of 33 percent or more. The embankments blocked replenishment of the delta

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with river sediment carried downstream by the annual monsoon floods. Consequently,
the embanked land have subsided and the islands have since lost elevation measuring in
metres. Within-channel aggradation rates can be high (>60 mm yr–1), creating channels
super-elevated above their surrounding flood plains and increasing the flood risk
(Vörösmarty et al, 2009).

The Sundarban’ position north of the Bay of Bengal makes it vulnerable to large tropical
cyclones that frequently form in the Bay from October to December and April to May,
The Bay of Bengal has been called a “breeding ground” for tropical cyclones due to the
broad shallow shelf, warm sea surface temperatures and funnel shape of the Bay and its
numerous inlets (Murty et al, 1986). Storm surges have been documented up to 12 m high
along the Bengal coast (Rogers & Goodbred, 2014).

Early indications suggest that the magnitude and frequency of hurricanes and cyclones
might increase along with the onset of more intense precipitation events (Lambert et
al, 2008). Although humans have largely mastered the everyday behaviour of lowland
rivers, they seem less able to deal with the fury of storm surges that can temporarily raise
sea level by 3 to 10 m. Storm surges can travel several kilometres up estuarine channels,
and may cause deep subaqueous scour at the base of peninsular islands. It remains
alarming how often deltas flood, whether from land or from sea, and the trends seem to
be worsening (Overeem et al, 2009).

Although the Bay of Bengal is not traversed by the maximum number of tropical cyclones
on the planet, in terms of storm surges the maximum impact seems to occur here. The
storm surge impact is a composite index of lives lost, all other damage, and includes the
ability of the region to return to normal (economically and socially) within a reasonably
short period. Storm surges in the Bay of Bengal are a serious hazard along the coasts of
Bangladesh and India, particularly in the Sundarban landscape.

The reasons for the disproportionately large impact of storm surges on the coast of
Bangladesh in particular, and West Bengal are the following: (1) The phenomenon of
recurvature of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal; (2) Shallow continental shelf,
especially in the eastern part of Bangladesh; (3) High tidal range; (4) Triangular shape
at the head of Bay of Bengal; (5) Almost sea level orography of the Bangladesh coast,
coupled with many inlets and some rivers and estuaries; (6) High density of population,
especially on low lying islands. The first five parameters would not matter if the region
were bereft of population. For example, in the northern regions of Canada, large
amplitude storm surges occur, but these do not receive any attention because very few
people live there.

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The phenomenon of recurvature of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal is the single
most cause of the disproportionately large impact of storm surges on the Bangladesh and
West Bengal coast as most of the land is flat. Many places, although 160 km from the sea,
are not more than 9 m above sea level (elevation in the western part of the delta is lower,
particularly the inhabited polders and islands). A rise of a few decimetres in sea level can
submerge large areas of land (Gill, 1975).

Another peculiar problem is the topographic changes that appear to occur in decadal
periods in the courses of the rivers and tributaries. The storm surge problem became
worse after the Assam earthquake of August 1950 because millions of tons of material
from the mountains were dislodged by the earthquake, which ultimately found its way
into the river systems and caused raising of the bottom by as much as 4.3 m in certain
locations (Murty and Flather, 1994). The embanked areas are now far more vulnerable
to storm surges that can damage or breach the embankments, effectively creating lakes
that can last for years. In 2009 Cyclone Aila struck Sundarban Region and the resultant
flooding marooned over two million and displaced more than one lakh people in the worst
hit areas. The storm also inundated islands with fresh silt, in some places reaching a
depth of 70 cm, (Auerbach, et al., 2015) reflecting the system’s ability to replenish itself, if
allowed.

TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS AND RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE

Progressive layering of sediment over time results in the build-up of delta land mass
that will continue to build seaward as long as rates of erosion do not exceed rates of
sedimentation (Reker et al. 2006). Ganga delta in Bangladesh has experienced sediment
reduction to the extent of 30 percent over the past 50 years and distributary channel
reduction of 37 percent which prohibits river flooding onto the delta plain thus delta
aggradation (Syvitski et al, 2009). On the Indian side, accretion rates could be between 20
and 50 percent of the rate on the eastern side in Bangladesh.

Deltas are now sinking at rates many times faster than global sea level is rising.
Ganga delta is in peril due to reduction in aggradation plus accelerated compaction
overwhelming rates of global sea-level rise. Natural compaction and accelerated
compaction reduce the volume of deltaic deposits. Natural compaction involves natural
changes in the void space within sedimentary layers e.g. dewatering, grain-packing
realignment, and organic matter oxidation. This is typically ≤ 3mm/year. Accelerated
compaction is the anthropogenic contribution to volume change as a consequence
of subsurface mining (oil, gas or groundwater), human-influenced soil drainage and

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accelerated oxidation, and can exceed natural compaction by an order of magnitude
(Syvitski et al, 2009). All trends point to ever-increasing areas of deltas sinking below
mean sea level (Syvitski, 2008).

Higher level of subsidence in the eastern part of the Bengal basin at a rate of
approximately 6 mm/year (Milliman et al., 1989) as opposed to the average rate of up to
4 mm/year of subsidence in the Delta (Goodbred and Kuehl 1999) is thought to be due to
neo-tectonic movements during 10th-12th century AD that caused the Bengal basin to tilt
eastward. However, it has been observed that annual sediment delivery by the Ganga and
the Brahmaputra rivers to the Bengal margin has kept pace with sea level rise since the
mid Holocene, sustaining sub-aerial growth of the delta with half of the mass deposited
sourced directly from seasonal flood pulse and the remaining half from older reworked
sediments (Rogers et al, 2013). If these sedimentation rates are representative of longer-
term trends and subsidence rates remain stable over the next century, the eastern lower
delta plain may continue to maintain its elevation and stability despite documented
mangrove retreat around its seaward edges (Schiermeier, 2014).There are reports of
net land loss of over 250 sq km in SBR during the period 1969 through 2015 (SoS, JU,

8
2016). The IPCC in its AR5 has also marked out the Delta for high risk of coastal flooding
and wetland loss in the 21st century (IPCC, 2014). See map series in Annexure 2 for the
anticipated extent of coastal flooding on account of sea level rise at the end of this century
based on projected temperature rise of 1, 2, 3, and 4°C.

In the absence of policies global warming is expected, to reach 4.1°C-4.8°C above pre-
industrial by the end of the century. The emissions that drive this warming are called
Baseline scenarios (‘Baselines’ in the figure below; http://climateactiontracker.org/
global.html), taken from the IPCC AR5 Working Group III. Current policies presently in
place around the world are projected to reduce baseline emissions and result in about
3.6°C warming above pre-industrial levels. The unconditional pledges or promises that
governments have made, including NDCs as of 1 November 2016, would limit warming
to about 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels, or in probabilistic terms, likely limit warming
below 3.1°C.

Since there remains a substantial gap between what governments have promised to do
and the actions they have undertaken to date, the Sundarban landscape could very likely
witness sea level rise associated with about 3°C at the end of the century. Moreover, both
the current policy and pledge trajectories lay well above emissions pathways consistent
with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal. Amongst the largest emitters,
China, European Union, and India have submitted pledges that are not consistent
with limiting warming below 2°C while what the Russian Federation has pledged is
inadequate, meaning if all governments were to put forward inadequate positions,
warming would likely exceed 3-4°C. Limiting warming 1.5°C above pre-industrial by the
year 2100 means that the emissions of greenhouse gases need to be reduced rapidly in the
coming years and decades, and brought to zero around mid-century.

For the Sundarban coast the maximum centennial-scale Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR)
is estimated to be of the order of 0.9 ± 3.3 cm/yr based on subsidence rates obtained
through the dating of buried salt kiln sand mangrove root horizons (Hanebuth et al.,
2013).Future rates of sea level rise are expected to exceed those of recent decades (see
WGI AR5 Section 13.5.1), increasing coastal flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion
into surface and groundwater. Beaches may erode, and mangroves and salt marshes will
decline, unless they receive sufficient fresh sediment to keep pace or they can move inland
(Gilman et al., 2008; Bezuijen, 2011; Kintisch, 2013; see WGII AR5 Section 5.3.2.3).
Neither of these is likely to occur unless planned deliberate actions are initiated. It is less
likely that sediment flow can be restored due to extensive development of water resources
management infrastructure upstream in the Ganga basin which is a cause of concern

9
(Milliman and Farnsworth, 2011; and Syvitski, 2008).Unless mangroves can move inland,
the globally significant natural area and the only mangrove tiger habitat is under severe
threat, as is the northern Bay of Bengal fishery.

SCALE OF IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE RISE AND SEA LEVEL RISE

The coastal zone of Bangladesh is a disaster prone area. Cyclones, storm surges,
droughts, floods, water-logging and salinity intrusion have a huge impact on people and
their livelihood. Poor communication, inadequate education and health care facilities,
prolonged absence of safe drinking water, insufficient cyclone shelters contribute and
multiply the dimension of vulnerability. Furthermore, increasing population pressure
increases the competition for limited resources.

The large population in the Sundarban is dependent on – climate-sensitive sectors –

agriculture, fishing, fishery and collection of minor forest produce; half the population is
below the poverty line. The subsistence economy is turning into a remittance economy
since the people and the productivity of their holdings are under increased threat from
deltaic subsidence, sea level rise, and increased cyclone intensity as climate change
and decay of the 18th century embankments take their toll. Climate change adversely
impacts farmers and fishermen alike; unpredictable rainfall patterns continue to make
traditional crop production difficult for farmers. Moreover, the ecosystem is being
adversely impacted by significant increases in salinity due, in part, to sea level rise as well
as reductions in freshwater flows to the delta. Rising sea levels place more pressure on
agriculture as land continues to be lost to sea. Entire islands have disappeared under the
sea necessitating human relocation. Residents express concern that the frequency and
intensity of storms and cyclones have increased overtime in the region.

To hold back the sea and create more land for agriculture, concrete and earthen
embankments were built around low-lying plots of land known as polders during the
1960s in Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan). The embankments blocked replenishment
of the delta with river sediment carried downstream by the annual monsoon floods, and
the islands have since lost 1-1.5 m of elevation. According to Kimberly Rogers, a research
associate at the University of Colorado, Boulder, these are now far more vulnerable to
storm surges that can damage or breach the walls around the polders, effectively creating
lakes that can last for years. Cyclone Aila struck West Bengal and southwest Bangladesh
in 2009, and the resultant flooding displaced more than 100,000 people in the worst hit
areas. But the storm also inundated the islands with fresh silt, in some places reaching a
depth of 70 cm, (Auerbach et al, 2015) reflecting the system’s ability to replenish itself, if
permitted.

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Diking huge stretches of delta shoreline would likely be problematic, as indicated by
Bangladesh’s experience with polders. Dikes allow the land they protect to subside,
Syvitskiopines that these must be routinely elevated to keep pace with steadily rising seas.

These examples illustrate the challenges of addressing a creeping problem that is barely
perceptible to the population in real time. It is hard to notice a drop in land elevation of a
few centimetres per year until its consequences materialize in a catastrophic event, such
as a devastating flood. Yet over time, these declines become significant. Where sea level
is rising by an estimated 32 cm per century, land subsiding by 10 cm per year will sink
that far in just over three years. Although sea-level rise gets most of the attention, for vast
numbers of people worldwide, subsidence is by far the more immediate problem. But
because subsidence is a local problem, local solutions are needed to keep it bay.

Occupational and/or physical displacement is already a reality but the current proportion
of population or absolute number is not so large so as to draw significant attention. With
accelerated sea level rise and erosion this could change rapidly displacing two million
in the medium term (Danda et al., 2011and Hussain, 2014). About 22 nation states
have populations smaller than the anticipated displacement figure in the Sundarban.
Unless handled proactively, individual and institutional capacities will be overwhelmed.
Displacement could also be across political boundaries, complicating matters further.

The Sundarban, compared to other mangroves in the world is rich in terms of flora
and harbours about 44 percent of global mangrove species. The floristic elements of
the Sundarban are usually divided into mangroves and mangrove associates. Beside
mangrove species, there are some associate species like herbs, cyano-bacteria, fungi,
algae, moss, epiphyte, climber, and lichens (Siddiqui and Baksha2001, Alongi 2009).
While most major mangrove formations support only a handful of plant species, Prain
(1903) identified a total of 334 species of plants, of which 27 were common trees
belonging to 245 genera of spermatophytes and pteridophytes from the Sundarban and
adjoining areas. Greenwood et.al. (2009) identified 165 species of algae and 13 species of
orchids.

The most common tree species occurring in the Sundarban are Heritierafomes,
Excoecariaagallocha and Ceriopsdecandra in that order. The other common species are
Avicennia officinalis, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, Rhizophora mucronata, Sonnerratia
apetala and Xylocarpus mekongensis. Another species that exists in the Sundarban
Delta is nipa palm (Nypa fruticans), which grows extensively on the bank of rivers, canals
and creeks with freshwater flows. However, increasing sea levels are known to cause
changes in mangrove systems. Gilman et al. (2007) found a reduction in mangrove area

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with SLR, with the observed mean landward recession of three mangrove areas over four
decades being 25, 64, and 72 mm/yr, 12 to 37 times faster than the observed rate of SLR.
Significant interactions exist between climate change and coastal development, where
migration shoreward depends on the extent to which coastlines have been modified or
barriers to successful migration have been established.

The Sundarban also harbours a rich and varied array of faunal assemblages which
includes economically significant fisheries. The species of global significance include the
Royal Bengal Tiger, River Terrapin, Olive Ridley Turtle, Masked Finfoot, Spoon-billed
Sandpiper, White-rumped Vulture, Greater Spotted Eagle, Lesser Adjutant, Fishing Cat,
Ganges River Dolphin, amongst others. A number of lizards and snakes are present, such
as the water monitor, (Varanus salvator), and the rock python, (Python molurus). The
estuarine crocodile (Crocodylus porosus), is also a prominent resident of the delta. A
number of amphibian species, including the common toad (Bufo melanostictus) and the
skipper frog (Rana cyanophlyctis) are also present (Chaudhuri and Choudhury 1994,
Sanyal 1999). The Sundarban is the only mangrove habitat where tiger exists giving it the
status of Level I Tiger Conservation Unit.

As with most mangrove ecosystems, crab species in the Sundarban are a common
and significant feature. The ubiquitous fiddler crabs (Uca spp.) are some of the most
important contributors to the ecosystem, forming a biomass of 3,000 kg/km² (Sanyal
1999). Prawn species found include the commercially important tiger prawn, Penaeus
monodon, and freshwater prawns, Macrobrachium rosenbergii. A range of mollusc and
barnacle species are also present. The Sundarban holds a rich and diverse fisheries system
with several hundred different species of freshwater, estuarine and marine species. This
includes a number of marine species that migrate up river to freshwater habitats to breed,
such as the highly economically and culturally significant Hilsa (Hilsa ilisha), or that
only visit estuarine areas to breed, such as Arius and Osteoganiosus species. Freshwater
species that migrate to estuarine habitats to breed include catfish (Pangasius species)
and a number of eel species. Sharks and rays are also present and genera represented
include Scoliodon, Pristis, Sphyrna, Rhinobatos, Dasyatis and Aetobatus (Chaudhuri
and Choudhury 1994). Bird communities of the Sundarban Delta are a dynamic mix
of resident species, summer visitors, breeding birds and winter migrants. Common
residents include herons, cormorants, egrets, kingfishers, storks and darters (Chaudhuri
and Choudhury 1994, Sanyal 1999). Migrant birds that winter in the Sundarban include
certain species of: raptor, plover, sandpiper, gull, babbler and flycatcher (Chatterjee
2004). A number of eagle and owl species are also reside or visit the area, such as
the white-bellied sea eagle (Haliaeetus leucogaster) and the brown fish owl (Bubo

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zeylonensis). With sea level rise, increased sea surface temperature and acidification, all
of these could be adversely impacted. Loucks et al. (2010) predict a 96 percent decline
in tiger habitat in Bangladesh’s Sundarban mangroves with a 28 cm sea level rise if
sedimentation does not increase surface elevations.

Biodiversity in tropical regions such as the Sundarban may fall if, as evidence
suggests, tropical species are already near their thermal maxima (Cheung et al., 2009,
2010; Nguyen et al., 2011). Individual fish species are projected to shift their ranges
northward in response to rising sea surface temperatures. The combined effects of
changes in distribution, abundance, and physiology may reduce the body size of
marine fishes, particularly in the tropics (Cheung et al., 2013). Acidification is also
expected to have negative impacts on other calcified marine organisms (algae, molluscs,
larvalechinoderms) (Branch et al., 2013; Kroeker et al., 2013).

With rising sea levels, coastal freshwater wetlands may be vulnerable to saltwater
intrusion, but in most river deltas local subsidence for non-climatic reasons will be more
important (Syvitski et al., 2009) and Sundarban may be no different. Current trends in
cyclone frequency and intensity are unclear but a combination of cyclone intensification
and sea level rise could increase coastal flooding (Knutson et al., 2010) and losses of
mangrove forests would exacerbate wave damage (Gedan et al., 2011).

Rising sea level impacts marine ecosystems by drowning some plants and animals as well
as by inducing changes of parameters such as available light, salinity, and temperature.
The impact of sea level is related mostly to the capacity of animals and plants to keep up
with the vertical rise of the sea. Mangroves and coastal wetlands can be sensitive to these
shifts and could leak some of their stored compounds, adding to the atmospheric supply
of greenhouse gases.

Warmer temperatures have direct impacts on species adjusted to specific and sometimes
narrow temperature ranges. They raise the metabolism of species exposed to the
higher temperatures and can be fatal to those already living at the upper end of their
temperature range. When atmospheric carbon dioxide is absorbed into the ocean, it reacts
to produce carbonic acid, which increases the acidity of seawater and diminishes the
amount of a key building block (carbonate) used by marine ‘calcifiers’ such as shellfish
to make their shells and skeletons and may ultimately weaken or dissolve them. Ocean
acidification has a number of other impacts, many of which are still poorly understood.

The biggest threat, Syvitski says, is that a delta will tip toward a collapsed state, meaning
that it likely will never be restored to anything remotely similar to its natural condition.

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There the scale of impact is not restricted to few million people but to a natural system
unlike any other. In other words, the scale of impact is not only global but in certain ways
immeasurable.

TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE AND RESILIENT DEVELOPMENT

Sustainable development requires managing many threats and risks, including climate
change. Because climate change is a growing threat to development, sustainability
will be more difficult to achieve for many locations, systems, and populations unless
development pathways are pursued that are resilient to effects of climate change.

The links between sustainable development and climate adaptation and mitigation
are cross-cutting and complex. First, the impacts of climate change, and ill-designed
responses to these impacts, may derail current sustainable development policy and
potentially offset already achieved gains. These impacts are expected to affect sectors
such as agriculture and fishery; threaten coastal zones; and pose critical challenges
to governance and political systems (World Bank, 2010, pp. 39-69; Adger et al., 2011;
IPCC,2012). Effects of climate change on key ecological resources and systems can
jeopardize sustainable development in systems closely dependent on natural capital as in
the Sundarban owing to lower adaptive capacity (World Bank, 2010; Lemos et al., 2013).
Second, mitigation has the potential to keep these threats at a moderate rather than
extreme level, and adaptation will enhance the ability of different systems to cope with
the remaining impacts, therefore modulating negative effects on sustainable development
(IPCC, 2007).

Third, many of the conditions that define vulnerability to climate impacts and the ability
to mitigate and adapt to them are firmly rooted in development processes (e.g., structural
deficits and available as set sand entitlements) (Brooks et al., 2005; Lemos et al., 2013).
Indeed, climate change will act as a threat multiplier and will enhance poverty. Fourth,
because several of the desirable characteristics of climate responses and sustainable
development may overlap (e.g., implementation of no-regrets options, equitable
distribution of resources, increased adaptive capacity and livelihood capitals, functioning
ecosystems and maintained biodiversity), systems that prioritize sustainable development
may be better at designing and implementing successful mitigation and adaptation
(Forsyth, 2007).

Finally, climate mitigation and adaptation, if planned and integrated well, have the
potential to create opportunities to foster sustainable development. Under the threat of

14
climate change, sustainable development depends on changes in social awareness and
values that lead to innovative actions and practices, including increased attention to
both disaster risk management and climate change adaptation in anticipation of (and in
response to) changes in climate extremes (IPCC, 2012). Enhancing resilience to respond
to effects of climate change includes adopting good development practices that are
consonant with building sustainable livelihoods and, in some cases, challenging current
models of development (Boyd et al., 2008). Challenging current thinking and models of
development in the Sundarban is necessary to not only usher in sustainable development
but also be future ready in terms of dealing with impacts of climate change on natural and
social systems.

In the Sundarban, the relationship between vulnerability to climate impacts and

development is very close and mutually dependent as low per capita income and
inequitable distribution of resources; inadequate or inappropriate education, health
care, and safety; and weak institutions and unequal power relations fundamentally shape
sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity to climate impact. Here, reducing risks
that affect resource-dependent communities is necessary but insufficient way to tackle
the myriad problems associated with climate change impacts. Building the capacity of
individuals, communities, and governance systems to adapt to climate impacts is both a
function of dealing with developmental deficits (e.g., poverty alleviation, reducing risks
related to food insecurity, enabling/implementing public health and mass education and
literacy programs) and of improving risk management (e.g., alert systems, disaster relief,
crop insurance, seasonal climate forecasts, risk insurance) (Mirza, 2003; Schipper and
Pelling, 2006; Warner et al., 2012).

OPTIONS FOR RESILIENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

The options for resilient and sustainable development will depend on either the time
horizon or on the future emission scenario. Given that there is no temporal certainty
about when temperature thresholds will be crossed it might be prudent to think of the
options in terms of temperature scenarios given that the average temperature in the
region is about a degree higher than pre-industrial times, and that the world is locked in
for an average decadal temperature rise of 0.2°C for the next two decades due to historical
emissions irrespective of current climate action and future pathway. The temperature
scenarios that appear logical at this point in time are 1.5°C and 2°C. The anticipated
inundation due to sea level rise beyond 2°C appears so severe and widespread (see map
series in Annexure 2) that it might not be worthwhile trying to identify options.

15
Resilient and sustainable development under climate change may be thought of as
preparing for, coping with, or adjusting to climate changes and their associated impacts.
To be able to do so, in a biodiversity rich area such as the Sundarban, a methodology
needs to be identified that will allow selection of options keeping in mind direct trade-off
between human activities and biodiversity conservation. The Portfolio Decision Analysis
(PDA) framework offers that opportunity. The approach is similar to optimising financial
portfolios, where natural resources and the built environment are considered natural
and human assets respectively and allocation of management actions are optimised
to maximise natural assets while minimising impact on human assets. Because the
region in question is the Sundarban, despite the large human population, allocation of
management actions are optimised to maximise natural assets. It is accepted that this is a
value judgement and that others might wish to maximise human assets while minimising
impact on natural assets.

The value of each asset varies over time as a function of climate conditions (sea level rise
in this case) and management actions. Venturing into the details of the PDA framework
is not intended here but the general steps are mentioned to serve as reference while
evaluating the options for resilient and sustainable development. In general, the steps are:
1) identify natural and human assets of interest, 2) determine vulnerabilities of and risks
to assets, 3) identify potential management action, 4) quantify the effectiveness value of
management actions, 5) determine costs of management actions, and 6) determine an
optimal set of management actions given costs and budget constraints. Steps 4 through 6
have been kept out of the ambit of this discussion paper.

In the case of the Sundarban, at the broadest level, the assets of interest are the tiger
habitat that makes this mangrove patch unique in the world, and the adjoining human
inhabited areas. For both the asset categories, vulnerability emanates mainly from sea
level rise and the risk is permanent inundation accentuated by the possibility of more
severe storms. Regarding protection from storm surges, Odd (1980) mentioned that it
would be impractical to build embankments high enough to contain the waters from a
peak surge occurring with spring tides. Instead, he proposed that each polder should
contain special low lengths of embankments, which could be allowed to spill waters into
the polders so that damage caused is reduced. In the villages prone to storm surges on
the Arakan coast of Burma, artificial earthen mounds have already been constructed.
Cyclones and storm surges, although not preventable, can at least be made less harmful
and the suffering they inflict can be considerably diminished by timely action (Khalil,
1992).

16
At 1.5°C of warming Namkhana, Patharpratima, Hingulganj sub-districts (blocks) in India
and Shyamnagar, Koyra and Dacope sub-districts (upazilas) appear to bear the brunt
(Annex 2). A more detailed study would allow identification of affected Gram Panchayats
and Union Porishods, and thus identification and quantification of the population at
risk (Sub-districts marked in Orange in Annexure 1). Tiger habitat does not appear to be
greatly affected so as to necessitate management action at this stage.

Given that the afore described scenario is decades away and the recorded rates of sea
level rise is 18 mm/year at its highest and elevation recovery if permitted is higher by a
factor of 10, elevation recovery in the sub-districts may be possible through controlled
embankment breaches. Controlled breaching of embankments has been reported to
restore elevation and relieve environmental problems in some sites in Bangladesh but
there has not been a detailed scientific study of this process. Post Aila, Polder 32 (Dacope)
experienced tidal flooding for two years resulting in a mean annual accretion rate of about
18 cm/yr. Of course, the sustained human suffering during the process and period of
elevation recovery will have to be addressed. Also it has to be borne in mind that unless
drastic mitigation action is implemented globally, greater inundation is in store at 2°C of
warming towards the close of the century or after.

Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) would be a valuable tool to decide whether
elevation recovery as opposed to brackish water culture fishery and tourism is a better
option (a separate discussion paper on tourism is available), while building homes and
public infrastructure on artificially raised land or on stilts. Should culture fishery be the
more optimal option, retraining the population and concerted support all along the value
chain will have to be provided. Also, mangrove regeneration will have to be supported at
strategic locations to serve as storm surge barriers

At 2°C of warming not only the extent of inundation of inhabited areas is much greater
(apparently more in Bangladesh than in India), about half of the tiger habitat on the
Indian side and about a quarter on the Bangladesh side are no longer available for tigers.
It may be possible to create large mounds from dredge material in forested and no
longer human inhabited areas for tigers to take refuge. The human dimension acquires
a much bigger scale in this temperature scenario and planned retreat may be the most
viable option. This of course raises questions regarding host locations for the displaced
population and their livelihoods. Rapid urbanization and orienting to an urban way of life
is possibly the way forward but it has to be carried out in a manner that the wellbeing of
the displaced is improved and that of the host population is not compromised at the least.

17
While anticipating the future and preparing for it is necessary, current development
deficit needs to be addressed as well. Service delivery is inadequate for the population to
be productive up to its potential and the economy too small to support the population.
Productive potential can be enhanced through better hygiene and health care delivery,
and education. Water, sanitation and waste management are crucial for improving public
and personal hygiene. These as of now are non-existent and are more of infrastructure
requirements. Healthcare and education infrastructure exits but needs improvement.
In both these sectors the human dimension is of greater significance. The current
socio-cultural ecosystem is unattractive for health and education professionals to locate
themselves in the Sundarban and the required ecosystem change is an intractable
challenge as of now. The solution then lies in application of technology for bridging the
distance.

The main economic activity being rain-fed paddy agriculture on degrading and shrinking
land, remittances play an important role although it is not enough to transform wellbeing
of the population. Agriculture output has to be and can be doubled provided land can be
put to use during dry winter months which is currently constrained due to unavailability
of irrigation. Rain water harvesting has been promoted by the government but this route
cannot meet the demand for all the agricultural land that remains fallow during winter
months. Desalinisation of either shallow subsurface water provided it does not result
in greater subsidence or of creek water, and efficient irrigation could be a set of option
but input costs would be higher and therefore high value crops rather than paddy has
to be promoted. Support for the entire value chain has to be in place. This will expand
the economy but bearing in mind that the region has between a few to several decades
before sea level overwhelms the place, it would be worth investing in human capital that
will provide not only immediate benefits but also in the long run. This has the added
advantage of not only pulling people out of poverty but also physically out of a very
vulnerable place. The urban places suggested earlier for hosting the displaced population
could be the human capital building sites not only for the people of the region but from
afar. One of the typical features of comprehensive development in Smart Cities identified
by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, GoI is giving an identity to the city. For
the Sundarban region, identity of these new habitations could be based on building
human capital. In these habitations, homes and public infrastructure should be built on
artificially raised land to deal with periodic flooding with rising sea level and more intense
storms. Nearer to the coast, conserving and planting trees could create a buffer against
storm surges. (Schiermeier, 2014).

18
DO THE OPTIONS NECESSITATE TRANS-BOUNDARY COOPERATION?
The options discussed in the preceding section can be categorised as under

Sl. No. Options Category

1 Storm surge management in polders and embanked Physical
islands
2 Elevation recovery through controlled breaching of Physical
embankments
3 Building homes and public infrastructure on Physical
artificially raised land or on stilts
4 Creating tiger refugia by raising land in forested and Physical
vacated islands and mangrove regeneration
5 Building human capital development sites Physical
6 Building adequate infrastructure for brackish water Physical
aquaculture value chain
7 Retraining the population for commercial scale Capacity
brackish water culture fishery
8 Practice of brackish water culture fishery instead of Livelihood
paddy agriculture as predominant economic activity
9 Practice of tourism as predominant economic activity Livelihood
10 Raising high value crops during placid dry winter Livelihood
months using desalinisation of either shallow
subsurface water or creek water and efficient
irrigation
11 Application of technology for enhanced service Miscellaneous
delivery in health and educations sectors
12 Addressing current development deficit Miscellaneous

Strictly speaking, barring trans-boundary tourism as the predominant economic

activity, and creating tiger refugia, joint management of the landscape is not a necessary
precondition to resilient and sustainable development in the region. However, trans-
boundary cooperation on all of the above would result in transformative benefits given
relative strengths in different sectors in the two countries.

19
CO-MANAGEMENT/JOINT MANAGEMENT/SEPARATE MANAGEMENT
(UNDER JOINTLY AGREED GUIDING PRINCIPLES) OF THE SUNDARBAN
LANDSCAPE
The people of the Sundarban are among the most disadvantaged in West Bengal and
in Bangladesh, as is evident from incidence of poverty, and delivery of public services.
Nevertheless, over the past decade and a half, socio-economic indicators, public service
delivery, and infrastructure have shown general improvement both in West Bengal
and in Bangladesh. These gains are quickly lost in case of high intensity weather events
as evidenced in the aftermath of cyclones Sidr and Alia. In times such calamitous
events it is also evidenced that people informally cooperate across the border with
supplies and knowhow. For instance, paddy seed varieties and cultivation practices
besides materials of immediate relief are unselfishly shared. The Sundarban identity
and solidarity is an asset that the two countries could leverage for wider consolidation
of mutually beneficial relationship. Moreover, co-management/joint management or
even separate management of the landscape under jointly agreed guiding principles of
natural and cultural resource management, visitor use and interpretation, science and
research, as well as relations with local populations would be beneficial for the currently
disadvantaged people of the Sundarban.

Further reasons for cooperation are: (a) The Sundarban eco-region is globally significant
and unlike any other mangrove site in the world because of the presence of Bengal
Tigers and thus World Heritage on both side of the border. This makes it obligatory for
the two countries to do all that they can for the maintenance of healthy and functioning
ecosystems, which will become increasingly challenging due to high density settlement in
the northern part of the landscape, and ongoing and projected relative sea level rise, likely
to result in coastal squeeze unless jointly addressed; (b) Besides intrinsic value of healthy
and functioning ecosystem, the goods and services derived are of great significance
to the fishing community of the Sundarban that engage in estuarine/riverine fishing.
The other valued resources are crabs, shrimp fry, honey and wax. In terms of services,
Sundarban serves as the nursery for the northern Bay of Bengal fishery benefiting
fishermen operating in open waters. The wave attenuation capacity of mangroves is well
documented and in the absence of the vast mangrove forest spread over 10000 sq km
the cost of protection of urban areas in the delta will be exorbitant; (c) It is not only the
urban areas in the delta that are threatened but the development gains achieved in the
rural areas particularly in the last decade and a half will likely be lost if the Sundarban
cannot be co-managed; and (d) While mitigation efforts are being ramped up it must be

20
understood that mitigation only has the potential to keep these threats at a moderate
rather than extreme level and therefore effects of climate change cannot be avoided which
will pose critical challenges to governance and political systems that must be addressed
jointly and proactively to avoid the catastrophic consequences of mass movement of
distressed people that this part of the world has witnessed repeatedly in the not too
distant past.

MECHANISM FOR CO-MANAGEMENT/JOINT MANAGEMENT/SEPARATE

MANAGEMENT (UNDER JOINTLY AGREED GUIDING PRINCIPLES) OF THE
SUNDARBAN LANDSCAPE
The proposed cooperation mechanism takes into account that (a) Primacy of the State is
maintained; (b) Policy arm and implementation arm are separate; (c) Implementation
arm is embedded in the respective Government machinery; and (d) A multi-tiered
structure to account for the federal structure in India.

Mandate of the cooperation mechanism is to guide bilateral cooperation, precipitate

and sustain joint action on (a) conservation of Sundarban to tackle endangerment and
extinction, and to serve as vital natural protective barrier against flooding, tidal waves,
and cyclones; (b) sustainable exploitation of natural resources for development and
poverty alleviation; and (c) development of management plan(s) to address livelihood
issues, flooding, climate related disasters, human-wildlife conflict, pollution, resource
depletion etc.

Geographical scope of the cooperation mechanism encompass natural area of the

Sundarban spanning Bangladesh and India consisting of Wildlife sanctuaries, Ramsar
sites, National Park, Tiger Reserve, World Heritage sites, and jointly delineated human
settlement areas adjoining natural areas (Article III of MoU 2011).

Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of the Republic of India

and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on Conservation of the
Sundarban was signed on 06 September 2011 which needs to be followed up by a
cooperation agreement/treaty for the establishment of a bilateral institutional mechanism
for cooperation and coordination, and financial commitments to fund the bilateral
institutional mechanism.

21
The proposed structure/mechanism comprises of:
a. Governmental Council composed of Ministers of MoEFCC and MoFA Bangladesh,
and MoEFCC and MEA India. The Council is meant to provide political/policy
leadership; set boundary conditions; seek synthesised information; and provide
resources. The council is meant to be the bilateral decision-making body on the
Sundarban Landscape, maintaining primacy of the sovereign states.

b. Board/JWG+/Broad-based JWG composed of Secretaries of MoEFCC and MoFA

Bangladesh, and MoEFCC and MEA India, Secretaries of other relevant ministries
as decided by the Council, and five members biennially elected from among the
Sundarban Platform for variety and to influence the direction of decision making.
The Board will set the rules and standards, define activities, responsibilities, and
timelines, adopt strategies, allocate resources, oversee operational and advisory

22
 entities, ratify outcomes, and appoint key personnel of the Sundarban Cooperation
Secretariat. The Board is meant to provide operational leadership to the Secretariat
and monitor without active involvement. The Board will seek synthesised
information from the Secretariat, and provide feedback to the Council.

c. The Secretariat is essentially the coordinating body staffed by professionals. It will

receive directions from the Board, develop work plans in consultation with national
Implementation Groups, and coordinate with these entities for implementation
of work plans. It is meant to support the Board and the Council, communicate
and coordinate with the Advisory Board as directed by the Council and Board. It
will communicate and coordinate with national implementation groups, make
reports and plans available for public consideration and deal with public concerns,
as well as provide financial management services in case of third party funding
that two governments agree to seek/receive. The Secretariat will bring together
relevant local actors to the Platform from different sectors to develop context-
specific approaches to deal with climate impacts on the Sundarban Landscape. The
Secretariat will commission and coordinate collaborative research, seek information
from the Platform on science, practices, debate outcomes and concerns, and provide
synthesised information to the Board. It will produce policy documents/briefs and
guidelines for national implementation groups as directed by the Board. It will
admit members to the Platform, renew annual membership of Platform members,
conduct biennial elections for non-state members of the Board (broad-based JWG),
and convene half-yearly Platform meetings. The Secretariat will be tasked with the
responsibility of organizing the biennial Sundarban Conference for the Council.

d. National Implementation Groups are to be composed of officials at the sub-national

level (state and division respectively; e.g. West Bengal in India, and Khulna and
Barisal Divisions in Bangladesh) from relevant government departments and other
government entities including Panchayati Raj Institutions and their counterparts
in Bangladesh. The groups are meant to implement the workplans developed by the
Secretariat on the direction of the Board.

e. Sundarban Platform will be composed of elected representatives at the national and

sub-national levels representing the Sundarban region (jointly delineated human
settlement areas adjoining natural areas), as well as registered organizations with
self-defined interests in the Sundarban Landscape, paying Annual Membership
Fee, and admitted by the Secretariat after due diligence. The Platform is meant to
share knowledge, science, and practices; undertake collaborative research; develop

23
 context-specific approaches to deal with climate impacts; debate issues admitted by
the Secretariat and advise the Secretariat.

f. Sundarban Advisory Board will be composed of domain experts to advise the Council
and the Board when called upon.

Human history is replete with examples of institutions meant to manage the natural
environment. However, the climate change problem calls for a continuously responding
society. Societies will have to anticipate and respond to changes faster than before.
Therefore, institutions need to allow and encourage society to continuously adapt to
climate change. Institutions need to respond at a speed commensurate with changing
climate. Thus, unlike in the past, the proposed structure provides space for active
participation of interest groups (to influence the direction of decision making, and
to develop context-specific approaches). Interest groups self-define themselves. The
structure can accommodate views from the top (direction of cooperation, and boundary
conditions) as well as from the grassroots (demand for certain actions and approaches),
besides fostering collaboration and sharing of knowledge, science and practices. The
structure is based on equal financial contribution from the two countries in the main, as
well as annual contribution from interest groups.

The proposed structure is a balanced blend of hierarchical and horizontal arrangements.

While hierarchical arrangements provide leadership (in the form of policy goals
and resources), these may ignore new knowledge and innovative ideas. Horizontal
arrangements on the other hand, lack authority but encourage different actors to
collaborate and learn, and create opportunities to promote a variety of solutions to an
identified problem. The structure brings together state and non-state actors in decision
making but ensures that sovereign prerogative to set the agenda is not compromised.

Studies have found that for increasing institutional adaptive capacity, a combination of
decentralized, participatory approaches with more top-down methods is useful (Gupta et
al., 2016). However, it must be recognised that institutions/organisations are inherently
change averse and unless deliberately designed with certain criteria these will not be
able to deliver at a rate commensurate with the rate of environmental change. The
institution/organization then, should be able to define systems of rules, decision-making
procedures, programmes that give rise to social practices, assign roles to participants
in these practices, and guide interactions among the occupants of the relevant roles
(IDGEC, 1999). Institutions/organizations generally evolve over the long run but the
current need is to be able to respond at a speed commensurate with changing climate. It
is therefore proposed that the organization (Sundarban Cooperation Platform) encourage

24
variety (make space to incorporate different problem frames and solution strategies),
allow for reflection and learning based on past experiences (mechanism for policy
monitoring and revision), create room for autonomous change, encourage leadership
for social responses (both long-term visionary leadership and pragmatic day-to-day
entrepreneurial leadership), facilitate the generation of financial resources, help to
establish a fair governance system taking into account legitimacy, equity, responsiveness
and accountability.

The criteria for each of the six characteristics are:

Characteristic Criterion Definition

1. Variety a) Variety of problem Room for multiple frames
frames of references, opinions and
problem definitions
b) Multi-actor, multi-level, Involvement of different
multi-sector actors, levels and sectors in
the governance process
c) Diversity of solutions A wide range of different
policy options to tackle a
problem
2. Learning capacity a) Trust Mutual respect and trust
among parties, levels and
sectors
b) Learning Learn from past
experiences and improve,
ability to change
assumptions
c) Discuss doubts Openness
d) Institutional memory M&E of experiences
3. Autonomous change a) Continuous access to Access to institutional
information memory and early warning
b) Act according to plan Plans and scripts for action
c) Capacity to improvise Foster social capital, allow
individuals to self-organise
and innovate

25
 Characteristic Criterion Definition
4. Leadership a) Visionary Space for long-term vision
b) Entrepreneurial Space for leaders who
stimulate actions and
undertakings
c) Collaborative Space for leaders who
encourage collaboration
among different actors,
adaptive co-management
5. Resources a) Authority Legitimate forms of power
b) Human resources Availability of expertise,
knowledge and human
capital
c) Financial resources Availability of financial
resources to implement
policy measures
6. Fair governance a) Legitimacy Public support
b) Equity Fair institutional rules
c) Responsiveness Respond to societal
requirements
d) Accountability Provide for accountability
procedures

Given the pace of change in the Sundarban Landscape, attributed to impacts of climate
change and other stressors, the proposed organizational structure for guiding bilateral
cooperation on the Sundarban Landscape and precipitating/sustaining joint/common
action would be an institution capable of responding at commensurate speed, and takes
into account the six characteristics and the criteria under each.

The Joint Platform has to be agreed upon by the two governments (6a, 5a) and mandated
to provide political/policy leadership (4a); set boundary conditions (4a); seek synthesised
information (3a); and provide resources equally (5c, 6b). At the apex, this could be in the
form a Governmental Council composed of ministers of MoEFCC and MFA, Bangladesh,
and MoEFCC and MEA, India. At the next level could be a Board/Broad-based JWG
to provide governance (6b, 6c, 6d), prepare, and adopt implementation strategy (3b),

26
oversee operational and advisory bodies, and appoint key personnel of Sundarban
Cooperation Secretariat, the coordinating operational entity, at the level below. The Board
could/should be composed of Secretaries MoEFCC and MFA, Bangladesh; MoEFCC and
MEA, India, and 5 members elected biennially from among the Sundarban Platform (1a,
1b, 1c, 2c); to be chaired by the senior most Secretary by date of appointment irrespective
of country, based on mutual trust (2a).

The Governmental Council and Board are essentially decision making entities. The
decisions need to be implemented in the two countries either jointly or simultaneously
(4c) which will require communicating and coordinating with the respective national
implementation arms comprising of State/District level line departments and PRIs (in
India) and their equivalent in Bangladesh. The coordinating entity may be termed as the
Sundarban Cooperation Secretariat.

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33
ANNEXURE 1: GRAM PANCHAYAT/ UNION PARISHAD LEVEL
HOUSEHOLD AND POPULATION OF SUNDARBAN LANDSCAPE
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
Satkhira District
04- Assasuni 15- Anulia Union 5508 24710
Upazila
17- Assasuni Union 5432 23624
25- Baradal Union 6520 28037
34- Budhhata Union 6903 29540
43- Durgapur Union 4021 16200
56- Kadakati Union 3239 14120
60- Khajra Union 5743 26046
69- Kulla Union 5957 24562
77- Pratap Nagar Union 6562 29250
86- Sobhnali Union 6306 26703
94- Sreeula Union 5846 25962
47- Kaliganj Upazila 13- Bhara Simla Union 5749 24621
15- Bishnupur Union 4777 21927
23- Champaphul Union 4357 16468
31- Dakshin Sreepur Union 4478 17661
39- Dhalbaria Union 4848 19840
47- Krishnanagr Union 5573 25428
55- Kushlia Union 5311 22955
63- Mathureshpur Union 6040 26352
71- Mautala Union 4189 18899
79- Nalta Union 8270 34719
87- Ratanpur Union 5628 23901
94- Tarali Union 5689 22118

34
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
86- Shyamnagar 11- Atulia Union 6693 30412
Upazila
15- Bhurulia Union 4513 20039
23- Buri Goalini Union 5760 24913
31- Gabura Union 6762 31115
39- Ishwaripur Union 7518 32831
47- Kaikhali Union 5815 24608
55- Kashimari Union 6452 26657
63- Munshiganj Union 7206 31832
71- Nurnagar Union 4003 18034
79- Padma Pukur Union 5495 24653
87- Ramjan Nagar Union 5045 21931
94- Shyamnagar Union 7017 31229
Khulna District
12- Batiaghata 11- Amirpur Union 3884 16282
Upazila
23- Baliadanga Union 4027 16813
35- Batiaghata Union 4710 19460
47- Bhandarkote Union 3966 15834
59- Gangarampur Union 4651 18168
71- Jalma Union 13243 59025
83- Surkhali Union 6298 26109
17- Dacope Upazila 10- Bajua Union 3577 15753
13- Banisanta Union 3398 14606
21- Laudubi Union 2042 9222
42- Dacope Union 1825 7047
52- Kailashganj Union 3443 14516
63- Kamarkhola Union 3559 13897

35
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
69- Pankhali Union 3735 15570
73- Sutarkhali Union 7463 30060
84- Tildanga Union 4095 17006
30- Dumuria 11- Atlia Union 7612 32236
Upazila
13- Bhandarpara Union 4077 16749
20- Dhamalia Union 5170 22240
27- Dumuria Union 6635 29242
33- Gutudia Union 5971 26143
40- Kharnia Union 4987 20585
47- Magurkhali Union 3214 13891
54- Maguraghona Union 5373 23115
61- Raghunathpur Union 5935 25817
67- Rangpur Union 4105 18053
74- Rudaghara Union 5404 23148
81- Sahas Union 4498 18647
88- Sarappur Union 4122 16101
94- Sova Union 4806 19708
53- Koyra Upazila 10- Amadi Union 7460 33184
11- Bagali Union 8881 34477
22- Dakshin Bedkashi 3881 16755
Union
55- Koyra Union 7788 33230
72- Moharajpur Union 7156 31068
78- Maheshwaripur Union 6911 29992
94- Uttar Bedkashi Union 3673 15225

36
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
64- Paikgachha 16- Chandkhali Union 8963 37734
Upazila
27- Deluti Union 3817 15554
33- Gadaipur Union 4802 19669
39- Garuikhali Union 5620 22805
44- Haridhali Union 5855 23415
50- Kapilmuni Union 8230 33011
61- Laskar Union 4590 20463
67- Lata Union 2636 10856
83- Raruli Union 6500 26152
89- Sholadana Union 5072 22307
Bagerhat District
08- Bagerhat Sadar 17- Baraipara Union 5991 25610
Upazila
25- Bemarta Union 5935 24595
34- Bishnupur Union 5020 21593
35- Dema Union 3825 15777
51- Gotapara Union 5507 23155
60- Jatrapur Union 4657 18899
69- Karapara Union 7921 34127
77- Khanpur Union 4169 16610
86- Rakhalgachhi Union 3341 13428
94- Shat Gambuj Union 5674 23522
34- Fakirhat Upazila 10- Bahirdia Mansa Union 3535 14673
21- Betaga Union 3414 13447
31- Fakirhat Union 6205 25076
42- Lakhpur Union 4808 20415
52- Mulghar Union 3414 14919

37
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
63- Naldha Maubhog 3691 16559
Union
73- Piljanga Union 4565 18975
84- Subhadia Union 3501 13725
58- Mongla Upazila 23- Chandpi Union 4248 17662
27- Burirdanga Union 3827 15311
29- Chila Union 4362 17607
59- Mithakhali Union 4292 17139
83- Suniltala Union 2439 8832
89- Sundarban Union 4277 16834
60- Morrelganj 10 - Baharbunia Union 4117 15889
Upazila
11 - Balaibunia Union 3195 11697
17 - Banagram Union 2823 11126
23 - Baraikhali Union 6484 22869
29 - Chingrakhali Union 4472 15929
35 - Daibagnyahati Union 4492 16790
41 - Hoglabunia Union 5068 19910
47- Hogla Pasha Union 2922 11861
53 - Jiudhara Union 6183 22958
59 - Khuolia Union 6605 27841
65 - Morrelganj Union 2990 12530
71- Nishanbaria Union 6460 27029
77 - Panchakaran Union 3944 14945
83 - Putikhali Union 3731 15065
89 - Ramchandrapur 4337 15875
Union
95 - Teligati Union 3075 10521

38
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
73- Rampal Upazila 10- Baintala Union 5223 20639
11- Banshtali Union 3435 13923
17- Bhojpatia Union 2031 8078
41- Gaurambha Union 4555 18794
47- Hurka Union 1606 6283
53- Mallikerber Union 2560 10348
71- Perikhali Union 3641 14515
77- Rajnagar Union 2612 10689
83- Rampal Union 5895 24276
94 -Ujalkur Union 6615 27420
77- Sarankhola 19- Dhansagar Union 4890 20821
Upazila
38- Khontakata Union 7622 31950
57- Royenda Union 7601 32604
76- Dakhinkhali Union 6179 24980
Barguna District
09-Amtali Upazila 13-Amtali Union 5565 24155
15-Arpangashia Union 3534 14873
23-Atharagasia Union 5349 23444
47-Chowra Union 4741 20802
63-Gulishakhali Union 6457 28458
71-Haldia Union 6836 29727
87-Kukua Union 5652 24028
Taltali Upazila 39-Barabagi Union 4321 18399
43-Chhotabagi Union 2932 13197
79-Karaibaria Union 3095 12920

39
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
91-Nishanbaria Union 3226 12928
94-Panchakoralia Union 2704 11490
95-Sarikhali Union 1812 7804
96-Sonakata Union 2921 11266
19-Bamna Upazila 23-Bamna Union 4694 20085
47-Bukabunia Union 5453 21400
71-Dauatala Union 5278 20693
95-Ramna Union 4112 17386
28-Barguna Sadar 17-Aylapatakata Union 4730 19782
Upazila
19-Badarkhali Union 6390 26201
28-Barguna Union 4742 20599
38-Burirchar Union 6949 29542
47-Dhalua Union 6082 25700
57-Phuljhury Union 3251 13205
66-Gaurichana Union 6483 27675
76-Keorabunia Union 4185 17755
85-M.Baliatali Union 7093 28944
95-Naltona Union 4828 19705
85-Patharghata 11-Char Duani Union 6576 24563
Upazila
23-Kakchira Union 5650 20720
35-Kalmegha Union 6939 25894
47-Kathaltali Union 5137 19788
59-Nachnapara Union 3251 12484
71-Patharghata Union 7242 28491
83- Raihanpur Union 3833 14810

40
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
Pirojpur District
14 - Bhandaria 11 - Bhandaria Union 5722 25782
Upazila
23 - Bhitabaria Union 3732 15361
35 - Dhaoa Union 4380 19481
47 - Gauripur Union 4625 20408
59 - Ikri Union 5183 21070
71 - Nudmulla Union 5353 22355
83 - Telikhali Union 5343 23702
58 - Mathbaria 15 - Amragachhia Union 5110 21090
Upazila
17 - Bara Machhua Union 2778 11808
25 - Betmore Rajpara 4777 19873
Union
34 - Daudkhali Union 5036 20983
43 - Dhanisafa Union 6110 28206
51 Gulishakhali Union 4760 21096
60 - Mathbaria Union 5166 22067
69 - Mirukhali Union 5523 23402
77 - Sapleza Union 7468 32469
86 - Tikikata Union 6123 25585
94 - Tushkhali Union 4006 17887
90 - Zianagar 15 - Balipara Union 6528 30399
Upazila
43 - Parerhat Union 4280 18488
51 - Pattashi Union 6391 28330
4068237

41
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
South 24 Parganas
District
Canning-I Dighirpar 7390 33667
Itkhola 6406 32587
Matla-I 3588 15960
Nikarighata 6810 34025
Canning-Ii Atharobanki 6403 33459
Kalikatala 4999 26397
Motherdighi 9396 46403
Mathurapur-I Abid Bhagabanpur 3406 16747
Lakshmi-Narayanpur 4844 24118
Dakshin
Jaynagar-Ii Chuprijhara 9625 49107
Monirhat 4647 22682
Nalgora 2088 10373
Kultali Deulbari Debipur 5182 26377
Gopalganj 7238 35782
Gurguria Bhubaneswari 6023 28079
Jalaberia-I 4125 20138
Jalaberia-Ii 3748 19203
Kundakhali Godabar 5270 27916
Maipith Baikunthapur 5178 26241
Merigunj-I 2318 12908
Merigunj-Ii 6017 32409
Basanti Amjhara 5903 30237
Basanti 6265 29320
Bharatgarh 6681 30568
Charavidya 5112 25056

42
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
Chunakhali 5494 26285
Ful Malancha 7920 39230
Jharkhali 5412 22343
Jyotishpur 4103 19010
Kanthal Beriya 5715 29240
Masjid Bati 3515 15526
Nafarganj 3602 15958
R C Khali 6493 32719
Uttar Mokamberiya 4603 21225
Gosaba Amtoli 4140 17447
Bally-I 3313 13124
Bally-Ii 4308 18069
Bipradaspur 4003 17226
Chotomollakhali 4799 20236
Gosaba 4485 18254
Kachukhali 3357 13256
Kumirmari 4344 17451
Lahiripur 5531 22108
Patharkhali 3403 16405
Radhanagar Taranagar 5282 23953
Rangabelia 3409 14706
Sambhunagar 3471 16282
Satjelia 4352 18081
Mathurapur-Ii Dighpar Bakultala 3869 18168
Gilarchhat 7739 36847
Kankandighi 5368 24919
Kautala 2855 13589
Kumrapara 3654 17682

43
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
Nagendrapur 4689 23069
Nandakumarpur 5258 27070
Radhakantapur 1769 8442
Raidighi 5606 27240
Kakdwip Bapuji 4672 22421
Madhusudanpur 4230 20096
Pratapaditya Nagar 7237 32932
Rabindra 5479 26400
Ramgopalpur 4224 18194
Rishibankim Chandra 5954 26763
Sri Sri Ramkrishna 6922 33847
Swami Vivekananda 8420 38251
Sagar Das Para Sumatinagar-I 4603 22793
Das Para Sumatinagar-Ii 4280 20725
Dhablat 6407 29439
Ganga Sagar 6401 32470
Ghoramara 1095 5193
Muriganga-I 4434 20544
Muriganga-Ii 4555 21279
Ramkar Char 6159 30844
Rudra Nagar 5782 28750
Namkhana Budhakhali 6058 26815
Fresherganj 5479 24554
Haripur 5689 24626
Moushuni 4014 19241
Namkhana 7389 31913
Narayanpur 5789 25550
Shibrampur 7015 30131

44
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
Patharpratima Achintyanagar 5619 25845
Banashyamnagar 4000 19585
Brajaballavpur 4796 23215
Dakshin Gangadharpur 5300 27548
Dakshin Roypur 3368 16089
Digambarpur 5380 26930
Durbachati 3922 18788
G Plot 6356 28992
Gopalnagar 3430 16700
Herambagopalpur 4700 22352
Laxmijanardanpur 4427 18900
Pathar Pratima 6365 30807
Ramganga 4308 20340
Sridharnagar 3914 18616
Srinarayanpur- 3756 17116
Purnachandr
North 24 Parganas
District
Haroa Gopalpur-I 5055 21692
Gopalpur-Ii 3672 18173
Kulti 6564 30732
Minakhan Bamanpukur 5279 24033
Chaital 5874 26358
Champali 4432 17949
Minakhan 6767 31249
Mohanpur 5149 21658
Sandeshkhali-I Boyermari-I 3881 16935
Boyermari-Ii 4378 20069

45
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
Hatgachhi 4638 20421
Kalinagar 5509 23348
Nazat-I 2216 10028
Nazat-Ii 6210 27138
Sarberia Agarhati 5697 26430
Sehara Radhanagar 4815 20096
Sandeshkhali-Ii Bermajur-I 2979 13136
Bermajur-Ii 4360 19327
Durgamandap 5642 24764
Jeliakhali 5229 22623
Khulna 4300 18010
Korakati 5570 23606
Monipur 5223 21200
Sandeshkhali 4468 18310
Hasnabad Amlani 5677 24245
Barunhat Rameswarpur 5232 21533
Bhowanipur-I 2668 11031
Bhowanipur-Ii 3977 16881
Hasnabad 4078 15756
Patlikhanpur 5377 22033
Hingalganj Bishpur 5485 21339
Dulduli 6108 22676
Gobindakati 4594 17032
Hingalganj 4543 17121
Jogeshganj 5761 21616
Kalitala 4654 17584
Rupamari 3680 15081
Sahebkhali 4943 18489
Sandeler Bill 6280 23607

46
Name of Upazila Name of Union Household Population
no. (Census 2011)
3103822
Total 7172059

47
ANNEXURE 2: WHICH SEA LEVEL WILL SUNDARBANS LOCK IN?
The following maps show sea levels locked in by different amounts of carbon pollution,
according to recent scientific research. If the world burns enough fossil fuels to heat
the planet by 4°C it could drown much of Sundarbans, the Ganga tidal plain (West) in
particular. If a rapid transition to a global clean energy economy is made to achieve the
main goal of the Paris Agreement, limiting warming to 2°C, some parts of the Sundarbans
(more of the forested than inhabited) will be saved.

Sea levels do not respond instantly to warming, once carbon pollution enters the
atmosphere, it continues heating the planet for thousands of years. That is what scientists
call locked-in or committed warming and sea level rise.

How long would it take for sea level rise? There is no certainty about the rate of sea
level rise but recent research says that without cutting carbon pollution, the world could
witness more than 6 feet (2 meters) this century, and reach 20 feet (6 meters) in the next.

The purpose of the maps is to provide a picture of post-2100 sea level rise threatened by
different levels of carbon pollution, to inform public discourse and policy dialogues about
the future of the Sundarbans. It is not meant as a planning tool.

At 1°C of global average warming since 1880

48
At 1.5°C of global average warming since 1880

At 2°C of global average warming since 1880

49
At 3°C of global average warming since 1880

At 4°C of global average warming since 1880

50
51
 DISCUSSION PAPER. SUNDARBAN IN A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE:LONG TERM ADAPTATION AND DEVELOPMENT
IND
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172-B Lodi Estate
New Delhi 110003
Tel: 011 4150 4814 Fax: 011 4150 4779