TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE

DEVELOPMENT
IN VIETNAM IN RECENT 30 YEARS AND
FUTURE

Hanoi, October 23, 2024

Dr. PHAN LE BINH
Oriental Consultants Global
Hanoi Office
General Manager
Today’s content
1. Vietnam and its economic development in recent 30 years
2. Vietnam’s transport sector development plans
3. Development stages of Vietnam
4. Trend of public investment into transport infrastructure in
Vietnam
5. Discussion on Highspeed Railway Development

2
 1. Vietnam and its economic development in recent 30 years
China

Myanmar
Laos

Thailand
Cambodia

Area: 32.9 km2

（0.88 times of Japan)
Population: 99.5 Mil. people (2022)
※13th in the world, 3rd in Southeast Asia, 0.79
times of Japan

Capital：Hanoi city (8.4 Mil. people, 2022)

Major city：Hochiminh city (9.4 Mil. people, 2022)

3
 (USD) (Bil. USD)

-
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500

500
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450

1985 1985
1986 1986
1987 1987
1988 1988
1989 1989
1990 1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
13

1993 1993

185
1994 1994
1995 1995
1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998
1999 1999

Source: World Bank national accounts data

2000 2000
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
GDP of Vietnam

2005 2005
2006 2006
GDP per capital of Vietnam

2007 2007
2008 2008
22.5 times in 29 years
31.5 times in 29 years

2009 2009
2010 2010
147

1,684

2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
2017 2017
2018 2018
2019 2019
1. Vietnam and its economic development in recent 30 years

2020 2020
4,164

2021 2021
409

2022 2022
4
Poor Transport Infrastructure in 1999
(Source: VITRANSS, JICA)

National Highway No. 5

5
Poor Transport Infrastructure in 1999

(Source: VITRANSS, JICA)

6
The Center of Hanoi city (1980’)

(Source: JICA)
7
The Center of Hanoi city (1980’)

(Source: JICA)

8
Flooding in Hanoi city (1980’)

(Source: JICA)

9
The Linkage Between Hanoi city and Hai Phong
city (National Highway No. 5, early 1990’)

(Source: JICA) 10
Hai Phong Port in early 1990’

(Source: JICA) 11
2. Vietnam’s transport sector development plans
Vietnamese gov. (Ministry of Transport) renew transport
infrastructure development plan every 10 years.
→ Supported by Japan’ ODA in plan formulation, each 10 years.
➢ 1999, The study on the national transport development
strategy in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (VITRANSS)
➢ 2009, The comprehensive study on the sustainable
development of transport system in Vietnam (VITRANSS 2)
➢ 2019, Data collection survey for sustainable transport
development strategy in Vietnam (VITRANSS 3)
All reports are online, free at:
https://libopac.jica.go.jp/top/index?method=open
Before 1999: transportation plan under
Planned Economy, lack of demand analysis
12
3. Vietnam’s
2. Vietnam’s transport
transport sector
sector development
development plans
plans
VITRANSSs methodology: planning with several traffic surveys.

Traffic Surveys Name

◄ Traffic Surveys ►
Scale/Coverage
◼ The survey system ⚫ 48 stations (24 hours).
basically follow to that 1. Road Traffic
Volume/ OD
⚫ Survey period: 3 consecutive days (1 day for OD
Survey).
of VITRANSS1 surveys Survey ⚫ Sample rate for OD Survey: 10-20%.
for comparative analysis ⚫ Classification of vehicles: 10.
⚫ 20 stations (north) and 20 stations (south).
◼ Other surveys 2. River Traffic ⚫ Survey period: 3 consecutive days (1 day for OD
Volume/ OD Survey).
• Survey of existing Survey ⚫ Sample rate for OD survey: 10-20%.
transportation ⚫ Classification of vessels: 7.

infrastructure and ⚫ 10 locations each for railway, airport, bus terminals.

3. Transport 30 locations for truck terminals/ICD.
services
⚫

Terminal ⚫ Traffic volume count: 20 hours.

Survey Interview survey: 18 hours.
• Survey of transportation ⚫

Sample rate for interview: 10-20%.

industries and service
⚫

20 main ports
providers
⚫
4. Port Cargo
⚫ Collection and analysis of manifests.
OD Survey
⚫ Interview (1 day) at port gates.
(Source: VITRANSS2 Study Team)
13
2. Vietnam’s transport sector development plans
Planning Approach Demand
Analysis
Regional
Development Subsector
Framework Studies
Corridor
 analysis based on updated
database Study
 integrated transportation
development strategies and
planning
Development
 prioritization of projects Goals and Strategies
 realistic investment plan

Prioritization Draft Master Budget

Criteria Plan Envelope

Proposed Investment
(Source: VITRANSS2 Study Team) Strategies/Plans 14
2. Vietnam’s transport sector development plans
Demand Forecast Methodology

15
(Source: VITRANSS2 Study Team)
2. Vietnam’s transport sector development plans
Identified Road and Road Transportation Projects up to 2030 (by VITRANSS2)

Expressway National Highway

Projects Projects

(Source: VITRANSS2 Study Team)

16
2. Vietnam’s transport sector development plans

Core Program (Road)

C. Projects with
A. Candidate Projects B+C. Core Program
B. Committed Projects Highest Priority
(2011–2030) (2011–2020)
(2011-2020)
Cost: USD million Cost: USD million Cost: USD million Cost: USD million
No. No. No. No.
Total To Gov't Total To Gov't Total To Gov't Total To Gov't

Expressway 44 67,648 47,354 12 11,691 8,184 7 7,169 5,019 19 18,860 13,202

Nat'l Highway 187 19,815 19,815 72 8,935 8,935 40 2,057 2,057 112 10,992 10,992

Traffic Safety 12 1,936 1,936 3 136 136 8 690 690 11 826 826

Total 243 89,399 69,105 87 20,762 17,255 55 9,916 7,765 142 30,678 25,020
(%) (100) (100) (100) (36) (23) (25) (23) (11) (11) (58) (34) (36)

(Source: VITRANSS2 Study Team)

17
2. Vietnam’s transport sector development plans
Identified Railway Transportation Projects up to 2030 by VITRANSS2
⚫ Committed/ On-going Projects
CR01: Improvement & Upgrading in North-South
Railway Line
CR02: Improvement in railway routes in the North
CR03: Yen Vien‒Pha Lai railway construction
CR04: Ha Long-Cai Lan railway construction
CR05: Chua Ve and DAP factory-Dinh Vu (Hai Phong)
railway construction
⚫ Proposed Projects
R01: FII (Hanoi‒Saigon Line)
R02: FII (Hanoi‒Lao Cai Line)
R03: FII (Hanoi‒Dong Dang Line)
R04: SRI (Hanoi‒Saigon Line)
R05: SRI & SMI (Hanoi‒Dong Dang Line)
R06: SMI (Hanoi‒Saigon Line)
R07: Trang Bom – Vung Tau railway construction
R08: Hanoi-Lao Cail railway construction
R09: Hanoi-Hai Phong railway construction
R10: HCMC – Loc Ninh railway construction
(Source: VITRANSS2 Study Team) R11: HCMC – Can Tho railway construction 18
2. Vietnam’s transport sector development plans

Core Program (Railway)1) by VITRANSS2

Project Cost
Scope Project Title Description
Code (USD mil.)
Improvement of R01 Implement Hanoi- To provide 50 trains/day
Existing Line Saigon Line frequency of service on a single 2,465
truck in Hanoi-Saigon Line
Construction of R07 Trang Bom – Vung To develop a new railway
New Line Tau Railway between Trang Bom and Vung 1,849
Construction Tau (71.3km)
Total 4,314
1) high-speed railway project is not included
2) excluding committed projects
(Source: VITRANSS2 Study Team)

19
3. Development stages of Vietnam
1986-90 1991-95 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010
Historical Stat “Doi Moi” Accelerate Industrialization, WTO member
Background Move forward movement toward modernization (1/2007)
market economy market economy
Target of 4th Five Years 5th Five Years 6th Five Years 7th Five Years 8th Five Years
Vietnam Plan: food Plan: reduce Plan: high and Plan: enhance Plan:
Government production, inflation, sustainable income by graduation
daily good expand growth, diversify
moving to non- from low
production, production, economic agriculture income
export improve living sectors, increase
sectors, enhance countries,
acceleration standard, start governmental economic accelerate
governmental saving, construct
competitiveness, infrastructure,
saving infrastructure enhance social- service sector,
economic integration into
infrastructure global economy
Situation of Difficulties in Rehabilitation Together with Drastic increase Start
Transport rehabilitation of main economic of traffic construction of
Sector of transport growth, appear demand, large scale
infrastructure facility: ports, needs of modern modern transport
damaged by main road, transport transport facility infrastructure
war airport, railway, infrastructure strongly required (expressway,
but not to support deep sea port) ,
sufficient strong economic problem of
growth, problem insufficient
of traffic safety maintenance
(Source: JICA Vietnam Office) 21
3. Development stages of Vietnam

2011-2015 2016-2024
Historical Background Covid-19 in 2020-2022

Target of Vietnam Rapid and sustainable Stable macro economic, further

Government development, increase economic growth
efficiency and
competitiveness.
Basically to be a
developed country by
2020
Situation of Transport Sector Continue construction of Slow down of ODA.
large scale transport Introduced BOT into expressway
infrastructure (expressway, construction but faced difficulty in
deep seaport, bridges …). low return sections.
Say NO to Highspeed Construct large scale infra. by local
Railway Plan engineers, own budget.
After Covid-19, intensive public
investment to complete North-
South expressway. Re-start
discussion on Highspeed Railway.

22
3. Development stages of Vietnam

Hai Phong Port (2006)

(Source: JICA Vietnam Office)

23
3. Development stages of Vietnam

New Terminal of Tan Son Nhat Airport (2007)

24
3. Development stages of Vietnam

High Rise Buildings in Hanoi (2010’)

(Source: JICA Vietnam Office) 25

3. Development stages of Vietnam

Elevated Urban Expressway in Hanoi (Ring Road 3 – 2010’)

(Source: JICA Vietnam Office) 26

3. Development stages of Vietnam

Can Tho Bridge (2010)

(Source: JICA Vietnam Office)

27
 3. Development stages of Vietnam

Large scale transport infrastructure by domestic engineers

Deo Ca tunnel, 3,900m, 2017

My Thuan bridge,
By Australian ODA, 1998

(Source:Deoca.vn)

My Thuan 2 bridge,
By Vietnamese engineers,
2023

(Source:Tuoitre.vn)
28
 3. Development stages of Vietnam

Long Thanh International Airport

- Capacity: 100 mil pas/year;

5 mil tons/year
- Estimation cost:
16,02 Billions USD,
Own budget
- Start: 2019
- Complete: 2025 (first stage)

(Source: Vnexpress.net)

29
4. Trend of public investment into transport infrastructure in Vietnam
Development of Road sector
Most of provinces are accessible by
national highway

1999

(Source: VITRANSS, JICA)

30
4. Trend of public investment into transport infrastructure in Vietnam Development of Road sector
National road network in 1999 (Source: VITRANSS, JICA)

Paved: 60.6%

Category Paved Gravel Earth Total paved

2004 2012

National Road 17,910 656 178 18,744 83.5 95.6

Significant increase Provincial Road 21,888 2,409 1,515 25,812 53.6 84.8

of paved road District Road 25,326 9,326 8,664 43,316 20.2 58.5

during 2004 to 2012 Urban Road 17,794 2,516 2,329 22,639 60.2 78.6

Commune Road 67,273 36,203 81,624 185,100 2.2 36.3

Total 150,191 51,110 94,310 295,611 19.0 50.8 31

Source: Directorate for Roads of Vietnam
Development of Rail sector (As of 1999)

(As of 1999)

Maintain network,
rehabilitate/improvement weak sections

(As of 1999)

Now reduced to
29.5h, for
1,700km travel
(57.6km/h) 32
4. Trend of public investment into transport infrastructure in Vietnam Improvement of several international and
domestic airports
Development of Aviation sector

(2015)
(1999)

(1999) (2007) 33
4. Trend of public investment into transport infrastructure in Vietnam

Development of Ports
Rehabilitation, expansion and new construction of several sea-port (Hai Phong port, Cai Lan
Port, Tien Sa Port, Cai Mep – Thi Vai Port, Lach Huyen Port, etc.)

(before 2006) (2006)

Hai Phong Port

34
Funding transportation infrastructure

• State budget
• ODA (Official Development Assistant)

35
 Unbalanced
expenditure
among
transport
sectors

Sources: Plan from PIP 2001-2005 (Table page 39), Actual from MOF
Expenditures for local budget and MOT figures for central budget.

Expenditure of national
budget for investment, by
transport sector in 2012
(Soure: MOF, WB analysis)

36
4. Trend of public investment into transport infrastructure in Vietnam
Revealed in VITRANSS3

Railway:
• The Hanoi – HCMC Line has merely maintained pax and loss
cargo in the 2010s.
• The completed expressway would kick the conventional railway
out from the market, particularly rail passenger service.

Traffic in 2010 Traffic in 2018 Yearly Trend Share on the

Corridor
Passenger 6,832 (000 pax) 6,873 (000 pax) +0.1% 2.1%-3.8%
Freight 3,056 (000 tons) 2,519 (000 tons) -2.4% 1.0%-2.0%

37
5. Discussion on Highspeed Railway Development

GDP of Vietnam
450
409
400
350
300
250
(Bil. USD)

200
147
150
100
50
13
0
1997

2018
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

2019
2020
2021
2022
Source: World Bank national accounts data
Highspeed Rail Highspeed Rail
cost 58 Bil. USD cost 67-72 Bil. USD
(39% of GDP) (16%-18% of GDP)

38
 Traffic Demand and Modal
Pax/day
Share along the North-South Coastal
Corridor (Passenger)(000)
Pax/day (000)
79
100 72
58 59 65
50
2008 North South
Current Hanoi
Pax/day Vinh Danang HCMC Mekong River Delta
Situation Pax/day (000) mode of travel)
(000)
(Representative
400 Car Bus CR Air362
353
332
300
263 266
221,663
200
2030
Do-nothing 100
Scenario
North South
Pax/day
Pax/day
(000) Hanoi Vinh Danang HCMC Mekong River Delta
(000)
Pax/day (000)
400
400
353 362
353 332 362
332
2030 300 300 263 266
263 266
Improved CR
+ Expressway 200 200
+ HSR
300 km/h, 100 100

Equal to Air Fare

North North South
South
Hanoi Hanoi Vinh Vinh Danang
Danang HCMC
HCMCMekong River
Mekong Delta
River Delta
(Source: VITRANSS2) (Representative
(Representative mode mode of travel)
of travel)
Car Car Bus Bus CR CR HSRHSR 39
Air Air
6. Discussion on Highspeed Railway Development
Proposal by Ministry of Transport

• Starting Point: Ha Noi City

• End Point: Ho Chi Minh City

• Total Length: 1.545 km, independent route

• Station, DEPOT: 24 Stations (03 Potential Station); 05 Depots; 42 Maintenance Stations.

• Passing: 20 Province and City

• Standard: Speed Design 350km/h, Double Track, Track Gauge 1.435mm; Electrification;
Passenger Transportation.

40
6. Discussion on Highspeed Railway Development
Progress of discussion
Ha Noi Vinh Nha Trang HCM City

Ha Tinh
Koica – 2008 Feasibility Study Feasibility Study

VN – 2010 Investment Report

JICA – 2013 Feasibility Study Overview Study Feasibility Study

VN – 2018 Pre-Feasibility Study

JICA Support Previous Research Results Review.
Adjust, Update, additional and finish the Pre-Feasibility Study Repot.

2022-2023 Appraisal Council Processing

41
6. Discussion on Highspeed Railway Development
A Counter Proposal
• Starting Point: Ha Noi City

• End Point: Ho Chi Minh City

• Total Leigh: 1.559 km (1.545 km independent route)

• Station, DEPOT: 24 Stations (03 Potential Station); 05 Depots; 42 Maintenance Stations.

• Passing: 20 Province and City

• Standard: Speed Design 350km/h, Double Track, Track Gauge 1.435mm; Electrification;
Passenger Transportation.

Opinion by the National Appraisal Council (Apr. 2023):

- Speed Design 250km/h, Double Track, Track Gauge 1.435mm, Electrification, Cargo and
Passenger Transportation.
- 50 Passenger Stations, 20 Freight Stations, 05 depots and 29 Maintenance Stations.

42
6. Discussion on Highspeed Railway Development

Proposed HSR Development Scenario (Nov. 2023)

Scenario 1
• New construction of double track 1435mm
• Design speed V=350km/h, axial load 17t, passenger train only
• Upgrading conventional line for freight and short distance passenger

Scenario 2
• New construction of double track 1435mm
• Design speed V=200-250km/h, axial load 22.5t, mixed operation
(passenger & freight trains)
• Upgrading conventional line for freight and short distance passenger

Scenario 3
• New construction of double track 1435mm
• Design speed V=350km/h, axial load 22.5t, passenger train (back-up
for freight train only when needed)
• Upgrading conventional line for freight and short distance passenger

The MOT proposed Scenario 3 as the optimum solution.

43
6. Discussion on Highspeed Railway Development

• The option with design speed at 350km/h accepted by the

Central Meeting of Communist Party in Sep. 2024
• To be discussed in the National Assembly in Oct. 2024.
• Not detailed discussion on financial source (67 bil. USD).

• High raised slogan on self-realized High Speed Railway project!

Also a huge plan for urban railway network in Hanoi city and Hochiminh city: 8-10 lines for
each city until 2035. A plan with unclear demand forecast, unclear prioritization among
lines, and undetermined financial resource.

→ What is a new mechanism to shorten construction period of urban railway lines?

Thank you for your attention.

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