Because learning changes everything.

Chapter 6

Discrete Probability Distributions

© McGraw Hill LLC. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill LLC.
 Learning Objectives
LO6-1 Identify the characteristics of a probability distribution.
LO6-2 Distinguish between discrete and continuous random
variables.
LO6-3 Compute the mean, variance, and standard deviation
of a discrete probability distribution.
LO6-4 Explain the assumptions of the binomial distribution
and apply it to calculate probabilities.
LO6-5 Explain the assumptions of the hypergeometric
distribution and apply it to calculate probabilities.
LO6-6 Explain the assumptions of the Poisson distribution
and apply it to calculate probabilities.

© McGraw Hill 2
 What is a Probability Distribution? 1

Probability Distribution A listing of all the outcomes of an

experiment and the probability associated with each
outcome.

Characteristics of a Probability Distribution

1. The probability of a particular outcome is between 0 and
1 inclusive.
2. The outcomes are mutually exclusive.
3. The list of outcomes is exhaustive. So the sum of the
probabilities of the outcomes is equal to 1.

© McGraw Hill 3
 What is a Probability Distribution? 2

• Example: Suppose we are interested in the number of

heads showing face up with 3 tosses of a coin.
• The possible outcomes are 0 heads, 1 head, 2 heads and
3 heads.
Possible Result First Coin Toss Second Third Number of Heads
1 T T T 0
2 T T H 1
3 T H T 1
4 T H H 2
5 H T T 1
6 H T H 2
7 H H T 2
8 H H H 3

© McGraw Hill 4
 What is a Probability Distribution? 3

• Example continued.

Number of Heads,x Probability of Outcome , P ( x )

1
0 = .125
8
3
1 = .375
8
3
2 = .375
8
1
3 = .125
8
8
Total = 1.000
8
Access the text alternative for slide images.

© McGraw Hill 5
 Random Variables 1

• In any experiment of chance, the outcomes occur

randomly and are called random variables.

Random Variable A variable measured or observed as the

result of an experiment. By chance, the variable can have
different values.

• Example: The grade level (Freshman, Sophomore, Junior,

or Senior) of the members of the St. James High School
Varsity girls’ basketball team. Grade level is the random
variable (and notice that it is a qualitative variable).

© McGraw Hill 6
 Random Variables 2

Discrete variables are usually the result of counting.

The data are summarized with a relative frequency table.
Discrete Random Variable A random variable that can
assume only certain clearly separated values.

Examples.
• Tossing a coin three times and counting the number of
heads.
• A department store offers coupons with discounts of 10%,
15% and 25%.

© McGraw Hill 7
 Random Variables 3

• Example: The Bank of the Carolinas counts the number of

credit cards carried by a group of customers.
• The number of cards carried is the discrete random
variable.

Number of Credit Cards Relative Frequency

0 .03
1 .10
2 .18
3 .21
4 or more .48
Total 1.00

© McGraw Hill 8
 Random Variables 4

Continuous Random Variable A random variable that may

assume an infinite number of values within a given range.

Continuous variables are usually the result of measuring.

Summarized with a probability distribution.
Examples.
• The time between flights between Atlanta and LA are 4.67
hours, 5.13 hours, and so on
• The annual snowfall in Minneapolis, MN measured in
inches

© McGraw Hill 9
 Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of a
Discrete Probability Distribution 1

The mean is a typical value used to represent the central

location of the data.
The long-run average.
Also referred to as the expected value.

 =  [ xP( x)]

• x is a particular value.
• P(x) is the probability of a particular value.

This is a weighted average.

© McGraw Hill 10
 Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of a
Discrete Probability Distribution 2

The variance describes the amount of spread (or variation) in

the data

 2 =  [( x −  ) 2 P( x)]
The computational steps are:

• Subtract the mean from each value, square the difference.

• Multiply each squared difference by its probability.
• Sum the resulting products.
The standard deviation is the positive square root of the
variance.

© McGraw Hill 11
 Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of a
Discrete Probability Distribution 3

• Example: The number of new cars sold on Saturday has

the below probability distribution.
Number of Cars Sold, x Probability, P(x)
0 .1
1 .2
2 .3
3 .3
4 .1
1.0

1. What type of distribution is this?

2. How many cars do you expect to sell?
3. What is the variance?

© McGraw Hill 12
 Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of a
Discrete Probability Distribution 4

• Example continued.
• This is a discrete probability distribution.
• The mean is 2.1.
Number of Cars Sold , x Probability , P ( x ) x  P( x)
0 .1 0.0
1 .2 0.2
2 .3 0.6
3 .3 0.9
4 .1 0.4
1.0  = 2.1

• The variance is 1.290 so the standard deviation is 1.136.

Number of Cars Sold , x Probability , P ( x ) (x − ) ( x −  )2 ( x −  )2 P ( x )
0 .1 0 − 2.1 4.41 0.441
1 .2 1 − 2.1 1.21 0.242
2 .3 2 − 2.1 0.01 0.003
3 .3 3 − 2.1 0.81 0.243
4 .1 4 − 2.1 3.61 0.361
1.0  2 = 1.290
© McGraw Hill 13
 Binomial Probability Distribution 1

There are four requirements of a binomial probability distribution.

1. There are only two outcomes (success or a failure) that are
mutually exclusive.
2. The number of trials is fixed and known.
3. The probability of a success is the same for each trial.
4. Each trial is independent of any other trial.
Example: A young family has two children, both boys.

• The probability of the third birth being a boy is still .50.

• The gender of the third child is independent of the gender
of the other two.

© McGraw Hill 14
 Binomial Probability Distribution 2

To construct a binomial probability, use the number of trials and

probability of success
P( x) = n Cx x (1 −  ) n − x
• C is the combination of the 𝑥 successes.
• n is the number of trials.
• x is the number of successes.
•  is the probability of success.
• For x = 0, 1, ,n
• Do not confuse  with 3.1416 . . .
Mean: n

Variance: n (1 −  )

© McGraw Hill 15
 Binomial Probability Distribution 3

• Example: Recently, www.creditcards.com reported that 28%

of purchases at coffee shops were made with a debit card.
• For 10 randomly selected purchases at the Starbucks on the
corner of 12th Street and Main, what is the probability that
exactly one of the purchases was made with a debit card?
• What is the probability distribution for the number of
purchases made with a debit card?
• What is the probability that six or more purchase out of 10 are
made with a debit card?
• What is the mean and standard deviation of the number of
purchases made with a credit card?

© McGraw Hill 16
 Binomial Probability Distribution 4

• Example continued.
• P(1) = n Cx (1 −  ) =10 C1.28 (1 − .28)
n− x 10 −1
x 1
= 0.1456.
Number of Debit Card
Purchases (x) P(x)
0 0.037
1 0.146
2 0.255
3 0.264
4 0.180
5 0.084
6 0.027
7 0.006
8 0.001
9 0.000
• P(x  6) = 0.027 +L + 0.00 = 0.034. 10 0.000

Access the text alternative for slide images.

© McGraw Hill 17
 Binomial Probability Distribution 5

• Example continued.
• Mean:
• Variance:
so the standard deviation is 1.42
• Could find the mean and variance by definition.
Number of DebitCard
Probability , P ( x ) x  P( x) (x − ) ( x −  )2 P ( x ) * ( x −  )2
Purchases ( x )
0 0.037 0.0000 − 2.8001 7.841 0.2935
1 0.146 0.1456 −1.8001 3.240 0.4718
2 0.255 0.5096 −0.8001 0.640 0.1631
3 0.264 0.7927 0.1999 0.040 0.0106
4 0.180 0.7193 1.1999 1.440 0.2589
5 0.084 0.4196 2.1999 4.840 0.4061
6 0.027 0.1632 3.1999 10.239 0.2785
7 0.006 0.0423 4.1999 17.639 0.1065
8 0.001 0.0071 5.1999 27.039 0.0238
9 0.000 0.0007 6.1999 38.439 0.0029
10 0.000 0.0000 7.1999 51.839 0.0002
Total 2.8001 2.0160
© McGraw Hill 18
 Binomial Probability Distribution 6

• Tables are available for various n and  .

n = 6 Probability
x \ 0.5 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 .95
0 .735 .531 .262 .118 .047 .016 .004 .001 .000 .000 .000
1 .232 .354 .393 .303 .187 .094 .037 .010 .002 .000 .000
2 .031 .098 .246 .324 .311 .234 .138 .060 .015 .001 .000
3 .002 .015 .082 .
.185 .276 .313 .276 .185 .082 .015 .002
4 .000 .001 .015 .060 .138 .234 .311 .324 .246 .098 .031
5 .000 .000 .002 .010 .037 .094 .187 .303 .393 .354 .232
6 .000 .000 .000 .001 .004 .016 .047 .118 .262 .531 .735

© McGraw Hill 19
 Hypergeometric Probability Distribution 1

For the binomial distribution, the probability of success must stay the
same for each trial.
• Large population.
• Sampling with replacement.

Most sampling is done without replacement.

If the population is small, the probability of success will change for each
observation.
Example: The population has 20 items.
• First sample: 1/20.
• Second sample: 1/19.
• Third sample: 1/18.

© McGraw Hill 20
 Hypergeometric Probability Distribution 2

Hypergeometric criteria.
1. There are only two outcomes (success or a failure) that are mutually
exclusive.
2. Fixed number of independent trials.
3. Sample from a finite population without replacement.
• n/N > 0.05.
• The probability of success changes for each trial.

P( x) =
( S C x )( N − S Cn − x )

N Cn

• N is the size of the population, 𝑛 is size of the sample.

• S is the number of successes in the population.
© McGraw Hill 21
 Hypergeometric Probability Distribution 3

• Example: Play Time Toys Inc. employs 50 people in the Assembly Dept.
• Forty of the employees belong to a union and 10 do not.
• Five employees are selected at random to form a committee.
• What is the probability that four of the five belong to a union?

( 40 C4 )( 50-40 C5-4 ) (91,390)

• P(4)= = =0.431
50 C5 2,118,760
Union Members Probability
0 .000
1 .004
2 .044
3 .210
4 .431
5 .311
1.000
© McGraw Hill 22
 Hypergeometric Probability Distribution 4

• Example continued.
Number of Union Hypergeometric BinomialProbability
Members on Committee Probability, P( x ) ( n = 5 and  = .80)

0 .000 .000
1 .004 .006
2 .044 .051
3 .210 .205
4 .210 .410
5 .311 .328
1.000 1.000

Hypergeometric BinomialProbability
x Probability, P( x ) ( n = 5 and  = .80 = (120 / 150))

0 .000 .000
1 .006 .006
2 .049 .051
3 .206 .205
4 .417 .410
5 .322 .328
1.000 1.000

© McGraw Hill 23
 Poisson Probability Distribution 1

Poisson describes the number of times some event occurs

during a specified interval.
The interval can be time, distance, area or volume.
Assumptions.
• The probability is proportional to the length of the interval.
• The intervals are independent and do not overlap.

Examples.
• The distribution of errors in data entry.
• The number of accidents on I-75 during a three-month
period.

© McGraw Hill 24
 Poisson Probability Distribution 2

 x e− 
P( x) =
x!
•  is the mean number of occurrences.
• e is the constant 2.71828.
• For x = 0,1,
Mean:  = n .
Variance:  2 = n .
• n is the total number of trials.
•  is the probability of success.

© McGraw Hill 25
 Poisson Probability Distribution 3

• Example: Budget Airlines is a seasonal airline that

operates flights from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to
various cities in the northeast.
• Recently Budget has been concerned about the number of
lost bags.
• Ann Poston from the Analytics Department was asked to
study the issue.
• She randomly selected a sample of 500 flights and found
that a total of twenty bags were lost on the sampled flights.
• What is the mean number of bags lost per flight?
• What is the likelihood that no bags are lost on a flight.

© McGraw Hill 26
 Poisson Probability Distribution 4

• Example continued.
• The mean is  = 20 / 500 = .04.
• The probability of no lost bags is given by.
 x e− .040 e −.04
• P (0) = = = 0.9608
x! 0!

Access the text alternative for slide images.

© McGraw Hill 27
 Poisson Probability Distribution 5

• Like with Binomial, there are tables.


x 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
0 0.9048 0.8187 0.7408 0.6703 0.6065 0.5488 0.4966 0.4493 0.4066
1 0.0905 0.1637 0.2222 0.2681 0.3033 0.3293 0.3476 0.3593 0.3659
2 0.0045 0.0164 0.0333 0.0536 0.0758 0.0988 0.1217 0.1438 0.1647
3 0.0002 0.0011 0.0033 0.0072 0.0126 0.0198 0.0284 0.0383 0.0494
4 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0007 0.0016 0.0030 0.0050 0.0077 0.0111
5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0007 0.0012 0.0020
6 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

© McGraw Hill 28
 Chapter 6 Practice Problems

© McGraw Hill 29
 Question 5 LO6-2,3

The information below is the number of daily emergency service calls made by
the volunteer ambulance service of Walterboro, South Carolina, for the last 50
days. To explain, there were 22 days when there were two emergency calls, and
9 days when there were three emergency calls.
Number of
Frequency
Calls0
0 8
1 10
2 22
3 9
4 1
Total 50

a. Convert this information on the number of calls to a probability distribution.

b. Is this an example of a discrete or continuous probability distribution?
c. What is the probability that 3 or more calls are made in a day?
d. What is the mean number of emergency calls per day?
e. What is the standard deviation of the number of calls made daily?
© McGraw Hill 30
 Question 13 LO6-4

• An American Society of Investors survey found 30% of

individual investors have used a discount broker. In a
random sample of nine individuals, what is the probability:

a. Exactly two of the sampled individuals have used a

discount broker?
b. Exactly four of them have used a discount broker?
c. None of them has used a discount broker?

© McGraw Hill 31
 Question 21 LO6-4

• In a recent study, 90% of the homes in the United States

were found to have large-screen TVs. In a sample of nine
homes, what is the probability that:

a. All nine have large-screen TVs?

b. Less than five have large-screen TVs?
c. More than five have large-screen TVs?
d. At least seven homes have large-screen TVs?

© McGraw Hill 32
 Question 25 LO6-5

• A youth basketball team has 12 players on their roster.

Seven of the team members are boys and five are girls.
The coach writes each player’s name on a sheet of paper
and places the names in a hat. The team captain shuffles
the names and the coach selects five slips of paper from
the hat to determine the starting lineup.

a. What is the probability the starting lineup consists of three

boys and two girls?
b. What is the probability the starting lineup is all boys?
c. What is the probability there is at least one girl in the
starting lineup?

© McGraw Hill 33
 Question 33 LO6-6

• Ms. Bergen is a loan officer at Coast Bank and Trust. From

her years of experience, she estimates that the probability
is .025 that an applicant will not be able to repay his or her
installment loan. Last month she made 40 loans.

a. What is the probability that three loans will be defaulted?

b. What is the probability that at least three loans will be
defaulted?

© McGraw Hill 34
 Because learning changes everything. ®

www.mheducation.com

© McGraw Hill LLC. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill LLC.