Monthly

dd-mm-
sales in Jan
yyyy)
('000 $) Sales t
1-Jan 266 1-Jan 266 1 1
1-Feb 145.9 1-Feb 145.9 2 0
1-Mar 183.1 1-Mar 183.1 3 0
1-Apr 119.3 1-Apr 119.3 4 0
1-May 180.3 1-May 180.3 5 0
1-Jun 168.5 1-Jun 168.5 6 0
1-Jul 231.8 1-Jul 231.8 7 0
1-Aug 224.5 1-Aug 224.5 8 0
1-Sep 192.8 1-Sep 192.8 9 0
1-Oct 122.9 1-Oct 122.9 10 0
1-Nov 336.5 1-Nov 336.5 11 0
1-Dec 185.9 1-Dec 185.9 12 0
1-Jan 194.3 1-Jan 194.3 13 1
1-Feb 149.5 1-Feb 149.5 14 0
1-Mar 210.1 1-Mar 210.1 15 0
1-Apr 273.3 1-Apr 273.3 16 0
1-May 191.4 1-May 191.4 17 0
1-Jun 287 1-Jun 287 18 0
1-Jul 226 1-Jul 226 19 0
1-Aug 303.6 1-Aug 303.6 20 0
1-Sep 289.9 1-Sep 289.9 21 0
1-Oct 421.6 1-Oct 421.6 22 0
1-Nov 264.5 1-Nov 264.5 23 0
1-Dec 342.3 1-Dec 342.3 24 0
1-Jan 339.7 1-Jan 339.7 25 1
1-Feb 440.4 1-Feb 440.4 26 0
1-Mar 315.9 1-Mar 315.9 27 0
1-Apr 439.3 1-Apr 439.3 28 0
1-May 401.3 1-May 401.3 29 0
1-Jun 437.4 1-Jun 437.4 30 0
1-Jul 575.5 1-Jul 575.5 31 0
1-Aug 407.6 1-Aug 407.6 32 0
1-Sep 682 1-Sep 682 33 0
1-Oct 475.3 1-Oct 475.3 34 0
1-Nov 581.3 1-Nov 581.3 35 0
1-Dec 646.9 1-Dec 646.9 36 0
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.87131847
R Square 0.75919588
Adjusted R Square 0.63355895
Standard Error 90.1581805
Observations 36

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 12 589424.31708 49118.6931
Residual 23 186955.44292 8128.49752
Total 35 776379.76

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 109.608333 63.751460839 1.71930701
t 11.7538194 1.5336217949 7.6640926
Jan 4.25868056 75.522114896 0.05638985
Feb -28.8951389 75.194400898 -0.38427248
Mar -49.5489583 74.896662182 -0.66156431
Apr -20.3694444 74.629257515 -0.27294181
May -51.7565972 74.392514006 -0.69572319
Jun -23.54375 74.186725191 -0.31735799
Jul 11.5024306 74.012149277 0.15541274
Aug -32.7847222 73.869007563 -0.44382243
Sep 31.7947917 73.757483062 0.43107208
Oct -28.2590278 73.67771935 -0.38354917
Nov 14.1538194 73.629819647 0.19222945

MSR 49118.6931
MSE 8128.49752
F-Statistic 6.04277641
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
 F Significance F
6.04277641 0.000116120083

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

0.09899025 -22.27161130581 241.48827797 -22.2716113 241.488278
8.88198E-08 8.581281047023 14.926357842 8.58128105 14.9263578
0.95551826 -151.9707171792 160.48807829 -151.970717 160.488078
0.70430638 -184.446608567 126.65633079 -184.446609 126.656331
0.5148242 -204.4845085509 105.38659188 -204.484509 105.386592
0.78733367 -174.7518259626 134.01293707 -174.751826 134.012937
0.49357277 -205.6492374782 102.13604303 -205.649237 102.136043
0.75383503 -177.0106836583 129.92318366 -177.010684 129.923184
0.87785184 -141.6033653105 164.60822642 -141.603365 164.608226
0.66131836 -185.5944068918 120.02496245 -185.594407 120.024962
0.67042923 -120.7841869957 184.37377033 -120.784187 184.37377
0.70483514 -180.6730026299 124.15494707 -180.673003 124.154947
0.84924963 -138.1610673217 166.46870621 -138.161067 166.468706
Aug Sep Oct Nov Forecast

0 0 0 0 125.620833 Q1. Plot the graph and vis

0 0 0 0 104.220833
0 0 0 0 95.3208333
0 0 0 0 136.254167 800
0 0 0 0 116.620833 700
0 0 0 0 156.5875 600
0 0 0 0 203.3875 500
400
1 0 0 0 170.854167

Sales
300
0 1 0 0 247.1875 200
0 0 1 0 198.8875 100
0
0 0 0 1 253.054167
n n n b b r
0 0 0 0 250.654167 Ja J a J a e e a
1- 14- 27- 9-F 22-F 6-M 9-
1
0 0 0 0 266.666667
0 0 0 0 245.266667
0 0 0 0 236.366667
0 0 0 0 277.3 Q2. Fit a linear model usin
0 0 0 0 257.666667 for all months from Januar
0 0 0 0 297.633333 (need not have a beta or a
0 0 0 0 344.433333
1 0 0 0 311.9 Model
0 1 0 0 388.233333 Coefficients
0 0 1 0 339.933333
0 0 0 1 394.1
0 0 0 0 391.7
800
0 0 0 0 407.7125
0 0 0 0 386.3125 700

0 0 0 0 377.4125 600
0 0 0 0 418.345833 500
0 0 0 0 398.7125
400
Sales

0 0 0 0 438.679167
0 0 0 0 485.479167 300

1 0 0 0 452.945833 200
0 1 0 0 529.279167 100
0 0 1 0 480.979167
0
0 0 0 1 535.145833 1 2 3 4 5
0 0 0 0 532.745833
 1 2 3 4 5

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.85446057
R Square 0.73010287
Adjusted R Square 0.72216472
Standard Error 78.5049022
Observations 36

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 566837.091 566837.091 91.9739222 3.36767E-11
Residual 34 209542.669 6163.01967
Total 35 776379.76

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 89.1371429 26.7231674 3.33557552 0.00206795 34.8291326 143.445153
t 12.0790734 1.25950897 9.59030355 3.36767E-11 9.51944317 14.6387036
1. Plot the graph and visualise how the monthly sales looks over 36 months

Monthly sales in ('000 $)

800
700
600
500
400
Sales

300
200
100
0
n n n b b r r r r r y y n n l l l g g p p p t t v v
J a J a J a e e a a Ap Ap Ap a a J u J u - J u - J u - J u u u e e e Oc Oc o o
1- 14- 27- 9-F 22-F 6-M 9-M 1- 14- 27- 0-M 3-M 5- 18- 1 14 27 9-A 2-A 4-S 17-S 30-S 13- 26- 8-N 1-N
1 1 2 2 2
Date

2. Fit a linear model using the retail sales=intercept+ slope*trend+beta1*jan+beta2*feb+……+b11*Nov

r all months from January through November all the 11 months with December month as reference
eed not have a beta or a variable for the month of December).

Intercept t Jan Feb Mar Apr May

109.608333 11.7538194 4.25868056 -28.8951389 -49.5489583 -20.3694444 -51.7565972

Monthly Sales Comparison for Actual and Forecast

800

700

600

500

400
Sales

300

200

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Months

Sales Forecast
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Months

Sales Forecast

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

34.8291326 143.445153
9.51944317 14.6387036
b+……+b11*Nov
as reference

Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov

-23.54375 11.5024306 -32.7847222 31.7947917 -28.2590278 14.1538194

31 32 33 34 35 36
31 32 33 34 35 36