Predicting_Heart_Diseases_Using_Machine_Learning_a
Predicting_Heart_Diseases_Using_Machine_Learning_a
This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
Date of publication xxxx 00, 0000, date of current version xxxx 00, 0000.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/ACCESS.2022.Doi Number
ABSTRACT Heart disease (HD), including heart attacks, is a primary cause of death across the world. In
the area of medical data analysis, one of the most difficult problems to solve is determining the probability
of a patient having heart disease. Death rates can be lowered by the early detection of heart diseases and the
constant monitoring of patients by physicians. Unfortunately, heart disease cannot always be detected
accurately, and a doctor cannot be in touch with a patient 24/7. Machine learning (ML) has the potential to
aid in diagnostics by providing a more precise basis for prediction and making decisions using data given by
healthcare sectors throughout the world. This study aims to employ several feature selection methods to
develop an accurate ML technique for heart disease prediction in its earliest stages. The feature selection
process was performed using three distinct methods, namely, chi-square, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and
mutual information (MI). The three feature groups that were ultimately selected were referred to as SF-1, SF-
2, and SF-3, respectively. Then, ten different ML classifiers were used to determine the best technique, and
which feature subset was the greatest fit. These classifiers included Naive Bayes, support vector machine
(SVM), voting, XGBoost, AdaBoost, bagging, decision tree (DT), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), random forest
(RF), and logistic regression (LR), and they were denoted as (A1, A2, …, A10). The proposed approach for
predicting heart diseases was evaluated using a private dataset, a publicly available dataset, and multiple
cross-validation methods. To find the classifier that generates the best rate of accurate heart disease
predictions, we applied the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) to fix the issue of
unbalanced data. The experimental findings demonstrated that the XGBoost classifier achieved the optimal
performance using the combined datasets and SF-2 feature subset with the following rates: 97.57% for
accuracy, 96.61% for sensitivity, 90.48% for specificity, 95.00% for precision, 92.68% for F1 score, and 98%
for AUC. The development of an explainable artificial intelligence approach that makes use of SHAP
methodologies is being done to get an understanding of how the system predicts its ultimate results. The
proposed technique had great promise for the healthcare sector to predict early-stage heart disease with cheap
cost and minimal time. Ultimately, the best ML method has been used to make a mobile app that lets users
enter HD symptoms and quickly receive a heart disease prediction.
INDEX TERMS Cardiovascular disease, heart disease, machine learning app, ML algorithms, SDG 3,
SHAP, SMOTE
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
mostly in nations with middle and low income. In addition, following rates were achieved: 97.57% for accuracy,
heart attacks and strokes are responsible for 80 percent of 96.61% for sensitivity, 90.48% for specificity, 95.00%
all fatalities caused by CVDs [2]. for precision, 92.68% for F1 score, and 98% for AUC.
As stated in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 of the 4. To understand how the system predicts its outcomes, an
United Nations, each person should be healthy and happy, explainable artificial intelligence approach utilizing
this research investigates cardiovascular disease. Heart SHAP methodologies has been developed.
disease is often diagnosed by observing the patient's 5. The use of SMOTE to increase the overall number of
symptoms and conducting a physical examination. Some of balanced cases in the dataset is of additional importance
the risk factors for cardiovascular disease include smoking, to this study. The proposed technique is trained on a
age, heart disease history in the family, high cholesterol balanced dataset using SMOTE to increase the
levels, lack of time spent in physical activities, high blood performance of heart disease prediction.
pressure, obesity, diabetes, and stress [3]. Lifestyle 6. The ML techniques applied in this article were
modifications including stopping smoking, losing weight, additionally optimized with hyperparameters. We have
exercising, and managing stress might reduce some of these tuned the hyperparameters for all the ML classifiers. The
risk factors. Medical history, physical examination, and proposed method got 97.57% accuracy rates with
imaging tests including electrocardiograms, hyperparameters that were optimized when the combined
echocardiograms, cardiac MRIs, and blood tests are used to datasets and the SF-2 feature subset were used.
diagnose heart disease. Lifestyle adjustments, drugs, 7. Additionally, to identify the classifier that achieves the
medical treatments like angioplasty coronary artery bypass most accurate HD prediction rate, the study assessed 10
surgery, or implanted devices like pacemakers or distinct ML classification algorithms. The XGBoost
defibrillators can treat heart disease [4]. technique was identified as a highly accurate classifier to
It is now possible to construct prediction models for heart predict HD after assessing the performance of ten
disease with the assistance of the vast amounts of patient algorithms. The proposed app's capacity for adaptability
data that are easily accessible as a result of the growing is shown by applying a domain adaptation method. This
number of recent healthcare systems (also known as Big shows the ability of the proposed approach to be
Data in Electronic Health Record Systems). Machine implemented in various environments and communities,
learning is considered a data-sorting approach that analyzes in addition to the initial datasets used in this article.
large datasets from various viewpoints and then transforms Overall, this work introduces novel ideas and techniques that
the results into tangible knowledge [5]. significantly advance the field of ML-based HD prediction
The objective of the study is to provide an ML approach for systems. The healthcare sectors that are associated with heart
heart disease prediction. ML algorithms were evaluated on disease incidences in Egypt and Saudi Arabia may both benefit
large, open-access heart disease prediction datasets. Finally, from the research's findings.
the most accurate and dependable algorithm was chosen as
the final model for an Android mobile app. This study aims II. RELATED WORK AND COMPARATIVE STUDY
to construct an innovative machine learning technique that is
capable of properly classifying several high-definition A major death cause globally is heart disease. Accurate
datasets and then evaluate its performance in comparison to prediction of its likelihood can help in preventing it. ML
that of other first-rate models. The study provided the Algorithms have been proven to predict heart diseases
following important contributions: effectively based on various medical data parameters. This
1. One of the key contributions of this research is the use of section presents a review of current and previous research
a private HD dataset. Egyptian specialized hospitals that has utilized ML algorithms to predict heart diseases.
voluntarily provided 200 data samples between the years Several studies have utilized ML algorithms like SVM,
2022 and 2024. We were able to gather around 13 artificial neural network (ANN), DT, LR, and RF to analyze
features from these participants. medical data and predict heart diseases.
2. This work deals with the immediate requirement for early A recent study by [6] used models of ML to predict the risk
HD prediction in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, where the HD of cardiac disease in a multi-ethnic population. The authors
rate is rapidly increasing. Through the application of ML utilized a large dataset of electronic health record data and
classification algorithms to a combined dataset consisting linked it with socio-demographic information to stratify
of both CHDD and private datasets, the authors CVD risks. The models achieved high accuracy in predicting
developed a mobile-based app for the instantaneous CVD risk in the multi-ethnic population. Similarly, another
prediction of heart disease. study by [7] applied a deep learning (DL) algorithm to
3. This work makes an important contribution by predict coronary artery disease (CAD). The researchers
combining XGBoost and a semi-supervised model. This utilized clinical data and coronary computed tomography
method predicts HD accurately using a combined dataset. angiography (CCTA) images to train the DL model. The
It is a new method compared to earlier studies. The presented model achieved high accuracy in predicting the
research's stated goal was to predict HD using the presence of CAD. A study by [8] utilized different models of
combined datasets and the SF-2 feature subset. The ML for predicting CVD depending on clinical data. The
models used by the researchers included DTs, K-nearest
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
neighbor (KNN), and RFs. The authors reported high evaluates which algorithm is the best in terms of HD
accuracy in predicting CVD using these models. Likewise, a prediction.
study by [9] used ML techniques to determine what factors • Accurate prediction is challenging for the minority class
contribute to heart disease risk. The authors utilized the (HD-positive patients) due to imbalanced classes in HD
National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey prediction datasets. While some research has tried to
(NHANES) data to determine risk factors related to coronary solve this problem by employing oversampling or
heart disease. The authors reported that the proposed ML undersampling, an extensive evaluation of the methods
algorithm was effective in identifying risk factors. Another and how they affect prediction accuracy is necessary.
research study by [10] investigated different ML algorithms' The imbalanced classes issue is also addressed in the
accomplishments in predicting heart diseases. The authors proposed article, which eliminates this gap. To ensure
used several models, including ANN, DT, and LR. The that the dataset is balanced, SMOTE is used. The
authors reported that the models achieved high accuracy in effectiveness of SMOTE in enhancing the accuracy of
predicting heart diseases. HD predictions and its effects on the efficiency of
ML algorithms have become widely accepted in predicting different ML algorithms are examined in this work.
heart diseases and have shown high accuracies in various • There is a demand in the literature for practical apps that
studies. Considering medical data parameters like clinical can self-diagnose and detect HD. Mobile applications
data, socio-demographic information, and medical images, and other solutions have been recommended, but their
ML algorithms have been utilized to predict different heart efficacy, usability, and applicability to varied datasets
diseases such as CAD and CVD. The studies we have and demographics need additional study. The proposed
reviewed have showcased those models like DTs, DL, ANN, paper develops a smartphone app that allows users to
RF, and KNN can effectively predict heart diseases. With the enter HD-related symptoms for rapid predictions to fill
increasing advancements in ML algorithms, it is expected this gap. Usability, accessibility, and adaptability to
that more appropriate models and features will be developed varied datasets and demographics are the app's goals.
for accurate heart disease prediction. Domain adaptation is utilized to evaluate the proposed
Previous studies on HD prediction have shown that ML system's flexibility and ensure its real-world
approaches may effectively recognize features linked to the effectiveness. The research article aims to improve HD
disease and build trustworthy prediction models. However, research and early diagnosis and prevention in high-
more work is needed to close these gaps in the body of prevalence countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia by
current knowledge. Here are some gaps and how the addressing these gaps.
proposed approach fills them.
• HD prediction research has used one ML algorithm, A. COMPARATIVE STUDY OF HD PREDICTION
such as DT, LR, RF, or SVM. Each of these algorithms APPLYING ML CLASSIFIERS
has shown promise, but there is no comprehensive
ML is a powerful tool for predicting HD. It has the
comparison or assessment of ML approaches. This
potential to enhance patient outcomes by its ability to
restricts generalizability and makes it difficult to find the
facilitate early detection and personalized treatment. This
best HD predictor. The proposed study addresses this
section introduces a comparative analysis of heart disease
gap. It compares and evaluates 10 ML classifiers
prediction using ten ML classifiers, including Naive
including Naive Bayes, SVM, voting, XGBoost,
Bayes, SVM, voting, XGBoost, AdaBoost, bagging, KNN,
AdaBoost, bagging, DT, KNN, RF, and LR. Using
DT, RF, and LR (see Table 1).
performance measures like accuracy, sensitivity,
precision, specificity, F1-score, and AUC, the article
TABLE I
COMPARATIVE STUDY OF USING ML CLASSIFIERS TO PREDICT HEART DISEASES.
2021 Liu et al. UCI heart disease LR, RF, KNN, SVM, Naive Bayes 5 93%
[24]
2019 Zarshenas et Cleveland heart XGBoost, DT, SVM, Naive Bayes 4 91%
al. disease
[27]
2019 Kaur and UCI heart disease AdaBoost, DT, KNN, RF, LR 5 97%
Singh
[28]
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
2018 Li et al. Cleveland heart Voting, Bagging, RF, SVM, Naive 5 90%
[29] disease Bayes
2018 Zhang et al. Cleveland heart AdaBoost, DT, RF, KNN, LR, 7 92%
[30] disease SVM, Naive Bayes
2017 Wu et al. Cleveland heart RF, SVM, Naive Bayes 3 87%
[31] disease
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
LR, RF, and KNN algorithms have shown high accuracy in are investigated in this study. These algorithms can aid
classifying the risk of CVD. Ensemble learning techniques, doctors and data analysts in making correct diagnoses of
such as bagging, AdaBoost, and voting, have improved the cardiac disease. Recent data on cardiovascular illness as well
classification accuracy compared to single classifiers. The as journals, recent research, and published publications are
accuracy of CVD risk prediction can be enhanced by all part of this article. A framework for the suggested model
employing several ML classifiers. Further research can be is provided by the methodology as in [1]. The methodology
conducted in this area to enhance the forecast and diagnosis is a set of steps that transforms raw data into consumable and
of CVD. identifiable data patterns. The proposed approach consists of
three stages: the first stage is data collection; the second stage
IV. THE PROPOSED HEART DISEASE PREDICTION APP extracts specific feature values; and the third stage is data
In this section, we explain the approach used and the ML exploration, as shown in Figure 1. Depending on the
algorithms applied in implementing the proposed ML app for procedures employed, data preprocessing deals with the
the prediction of cardiac illnesses. Figure 1 shows the missing values, cleansing of the data, and normalization [2].
proposed system's sequences for predicting heart diseases. The data that underwent pre-processing were then classified
To begin with, the dataset was required to be gathered and using the ten classifiers (A1, A2, …, A10). Finally, after
preprocessed so that any necessary inconsistencies could be putting the suggested model into practice, we evaluated its
removed from it (e.g., null occurrences needed to be replaced performance and accuracy using a range of performance
with average values). The dataset was divided into two measures. Using a variety of classifiers, a Reliable Prediction
distinct groups, which were referred to as the test dataset and System for Heart Disease (RPSHD) was developed in this
the training dataset, respectively. Following that, several model. This model uses 13 medical factors for prediction,
distinct classification algorithms were put into action to among which are age, sex, cholesterol, blood pressure, and
identify the one that provided the highest level of accuracy electrocardiograph [3].
concerning these datasets.
B. DATASETS AND DATASET FEATURES
This research employs both the CHDD and a private dataset
for heart disease prediction. The CHDD dataset has 303
samples, while the private dataset has 200, and they have the
same features. The combined dataset contains 503 records,
and 13 features are associated with each one (including
demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters). The
datasets have many features that can be used for heart disease
prediction including age, gender, blood pressure, cholesterol
levels, electrocardiogram readings-ECG, chest pain,
exercise-induced angina, blood sugar with fasting condition,
max heart rate achieved, oldpeak, coronary artery,
thalassemia, and other clinical and laboratory
measurements, as shown in Table 2. The outcome variable
FIGURE 1. The proposed approach sequences for heart disease known as "Target" takes a binary value and refers to the heart
prediction. disease predicting feature (i.e., it indicates whether or not
cardiac disease is present).
A. THE PROPOSED METHODOLOGY
Naive Bayes, SVM, voting, XGBoost, AdaBoost, bagging,
DT, KNN, RF, and LR classifiers are the ML techniques that
TABLE II
THE USED FEATURES FROM THE CHDD.
Feature Feature Feature
no. name code Description Values type
1 Age AGE Age of patient Number of years
2 Gender GEN Patient sex Female = 0, male = 1
3 Chol CHOL Evaluation of a patient's mg/dl
cholesterol levels
4 Trestbps BRP Blood resting pressure Mm
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
having heart disease. Furthermore, REC, FBS, RBP, and of the three different sets of features, respectively. Table 5
CM all have lower total scores across all three FSMs. shows these feature sets that were selected for additional
Because of all these features, three distinct groups are investigation.
chosen to be included depending on their score. SF-1, SF-
2, and SF-3 were the abbreviations that were given to each
TABLE IV
FEATURE SCORE USING FSM1, FSM2, AND FSM3.
Feature Feature (a) Score using (b) Score using (c) Score using
No Code FSM1 FSM2 FSM3
Score Order Score Order Score Order
1 AGE 17.12 9 24.29 7 1.01 11
2 GEN 26.79 8 8.58 10 1.05 9
3 CHOL 3.20 12 24.94 6 1.08 7
4 BRP 7.46 10 15.82 8 1.03 10
5 CPT 70.77 2 63.60 4 1.17 1
6 FBS 1.24 13 1.20 13 1.00 12
7 MHR 66.12 4 189.32 1 1.10 5
8 REC 6.78 11 3.98 12 1.00 13
9 OP 69.55 3 73.64 2 1.09 6
10 EIA 71.95 1 39.91 5 1.10 4
11 CMV 65.05 5 71.89 3 1.11 3
12 PES 41.90 6 10.80 9 1.08 8
13 TS 32.80 7 6.90 11 1.14 2
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
module [34]. In the second step of the process, each feature's 1 and 1 indicate no association. It is essential to keep in mind
importance is calculated using a feature selection approach, that the only thing that can be detected via the use of
and then three sets of features (SF) are generated. Thirdly, correlation is the linear link that exists between the variables.
the dataset was separated into training and testing sets. A The prediction for the patient is correlated with each of those
total of 75% of the data is utilized for training, while the variables at a level of at least 70% correlation.
other 25% is utilized for testing. Finally, ten distinct ML
algorithms were trained using this 75% of test data. For the
aim of predicting heart disease, the method with the best
performance was selected [35].
A. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION
In this subsection, the authors evaluate and explain the
proposed system's performance. Different algorithms and
their comparative performances were presented based on
evaluation metrics including accuracy, sensitivity,
specificity, and F1-score. These performance measures
were evaluated using true positive (TP), true negative
(TN), false positive (FP), and false negative (FN) data. The
next subsection focuses on these measurements.
Following this evaluation, the algorithm with the greatest FIGURE 7. Correlation between features of SF-2 using SMOTE.
results is provided. Figure 6 demonstrates how the
confusion matrix may be used to evaluate a classification
model's performance.
Figure 6 illustrates the predicted values of TP, FP, TN, and FN Figures 8 and 9 show the scatter and density plots among
for the XGBoost classifier using SMOTE. Each element in four selected features in the SF-2 dataset. These scatter and
this confusion matrix represents the number of cases for both density graphs are beneficial for exploring the relationships
the actual classes and the predicted classes that have a and distributions of variables in the HD dataset. They can
particular set of labels. As an illustration, the matrix has a provide insights into correlation, concentration, outliers, and
total of 63 cases (TP) of heart disease classifications, 3 cases patterns that may exist among the four variables (exang, cp,
(FP) of diagnosis classified as "heart disease", 4 cases (FN) ca, and thal).
of diagnosis classed as "no heart disease", and 66 cases (TN)
of distinct "heart disease" classifications.
Figure 7 presents the correlation between the important
features of SF-2 using SMOTE. The y-axis values include
thalach, chol, sex, age, slope, exang, oldpeak, ca, cp, and
thal. Positive or negative correlation coefficients show a
significant relationship between the two variables, whereas -
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
TABLE VI
ACCURACY, SENSITIVITY, AND SPECIFICITY OF ML TECHNIQUES USING SF-1, SF-2, AND SF-2.
Algo. Accuracy % Sensitivity % Specificity % F1 score
code ML algorithms
SF-1 SF-2 SF-3 SF-1 SF-2 SF-3 SF-1 SF-2 SF-3 SF-1 SF-2 SF-3
A1 Naive Bayes 87.13 87.13 87.13 91.53 91.53 91.53 80.95 80.95 80.95 83.95 83.95 83.95
A2 SVM 89.11 89.11 88.12 94.92 94.92 93.22 80.95 80.95 80.95 86.08 86.08 85.00
A3 Voting 88.12 86.14 86.14 94.92 94.92 94.92 78.57 73.81 73.81 84.62 81.58 81.58
A4 XGBoost 93.17 97.57 93.19 94.92 96.61 94.92 90.48 90.48 90.48 91.57 92.68 91.57
A5 AdaBoost 86.14 85.15 85.15 91.53 91.53 88.14 78.57 76.19 80.95 82.50 81.01 81.93
A6 Bagging 89.11 92.08 91.09 94.92 94.92 93.22 80.95 88.10 88.10 86.08 90.24 89.16
A7 Decision Tree 89.11 87.13 93.07 93.22 91.53 93.22 83.33 80.95 92.86 86.42 8395 91.76
A8 KNN 86.14 87.13 88.12 89.83 93.22 89.83 80.95 78.57 85.71 82.93 8354 85.71
A9 Random Forest 93.07 93.07 93.07 94.92 94.92 94.92 90.48 90.48 90.48 91.57 91.57 91.57
A10 Logistic 86.14 86.14 88.12 93.22 93.22 93.22 76.19 76.19 80.95 82.05 82.05 85.00
Regression
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
TABLE VII
PERFORMANCE OUTCOMES FOR XGBOOST CLASSIFIER USING SF-2 AND SMOTE.
FIGURE 11. AUC and ROC curve for the XGBoost classifier using
SMOTE.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
In clinical scenarios, the use of explainable models and literature. This validation process ensures that the
interpretable features is not only beneficial but mandatory. model's decisions are based on medically sound
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods have principles, which is critical for clinical acceptance.
shown to increase the performance of models by providing 2. Ethical and Legal Compliance:
transparency and fostering trust among clinicians and • Accountability: Explainable models facilitate
patients [36]. The adoption of XAI methods addresses accountability by providing a clear audit trail of the
several critical aspects: decision-making process. This is crucial for addressing
1. Ethical and Legal Issues: Explainability ensures that the ethical and legal concerns in healthcare and ensuring
decision-making process of AI models aligns with ethical that AI systems comply with regulatory standards.
standards and legal requirements, as highlighted in [37]. • Patient Trust: Understanding the prediction process
Transparent models aid in auditing and validating fosters trust in the AI system among patients and
decisions, which is critical in a highly regulated clinicians. This trust is critical for widespread adoption
healthcare sector. of AI in clinical settings.
2. Verification with Clinical Literature: The AI bases its 3. Improved Clinical Outcomes:
decisions on scientific reasoning, as its features and • Personalized Treatment Plans: XAI methods enable
models align with established clinical literature [38]. This the identification of key factors influencing individual
alignment with clinical knowledge enhances the patient predictions. This can lead to more personalized
reliability of the model's predictions. and effective treatment plans tailored to the specific
3. Acceptance and Trust: Transparent and understandable needs of each patient.
decision-making processes significantly enhance the • Early Intervention: By providing detailed explanations
acceptance and trust of AI systems in clinical practice for predictions, clinicians can identify early warning
[39]. Explainable models offer valuable insights into signs and intervene promptly, potentially improving
prediction processes, thereby facilitating their seamless patient outcomes.
integration into standard clinical workflows.
Our study concludes that incorporating explainable AI Future Directions: We plan to incorporate the following
methods such as SHAP into machine learning models for explanatory mechanisms into our future work to strengthen
heart disease prediction enhances their clarity, reliability, trust and confidence in our AI application for heart disease
and acceptability in clinical settings. prediction.
Future work will continue to focus on improving model 1. Integration of SHAP and LIME:
interpretability and aligning AI predictions with clinical • SHAP: We will continue to use SHAP to provide both
expertise to further advance the practical application of AI in global and local explanations of model predictions.
healthcare. We aim to further enhance the explainability of SHAP values will help us identify the most influential
our models by applying additional techniques such as LIME features and understand their impact on individual
(local interpretable model-agnostic explanations) and predictions.
engaging with clinical experts to ensure the interpretations • LIME: We will explore the use of LIME to generate
align with medical knowledge and practice. By incorporating interpretable models around each prediction. Locally,
these explainable AI methodologies, we aim to bridge the LIME approximates the black-box model with an
gap between complex ML models and their practical interpretable model, providing further insights into the
application in clinical settings, ultimately contributing to prediction process.
more transparent, reliable, and effective healthcare solutions. 2. Interactive Explanation Interfaces:
• We will develop interactive interfaces that allow
To increase the completeness of our study, it is essential to
clinicians to visualize and explore the explanations
emphasize the benefits of explainable AI methods and
provided by SHAP and LIME. These interfaces will
discuss how we plan to implement these mechanisms in our
enable users to drill down into specific predictions,
future work. Here are the key benefits, as well as our
compare feature contributions, and gain a deeper
proposed future directions: understanding of the model’s behavior.
Benefits of Explainable AI Methods:
3. Clinical Expert Collaboration:
1. Enhanced Transparency and Interpretability:
• We will collaborate with clinical experts to ensure that
• Clinical Decision Support: Explainable AI methods,
the explanations generated by our AI models align with
such as SHAP, provide clear insights into the
clinical practice and knowledge. Their feedback will be
contribution of each feature to the model’s predictions.
invaluable in refining our explanation mechanisms and
This transparency helps clinicians understand the ensuring their relevance and accuracy in a clinical
rationale behind AI-generated predictions, making the
context.
decision-support process more robust.
4. Continuous Model Monitoring and Improvement:
• Model Validation and Verification: Using XAI
• We will implement continuous monitoring of our AI
methods, healthcare professionals can verify the
models to track their performance and the relevance of
model's predictions against clinical knowledge and
the explanations over time. This will include regular
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
updates to the models and the explanation mechanisms Prediction. Journal of Medical Systems, 43(12), 345. doi:
10.1007/s10916-019-1524-8
based on new clinical data and feedback from
[12] Khandadash, N., Ababneh, E., & Al-Qudah, M. (2021). Predicting the
healthcare professionals. Risk of Coronary Artery Disease in Women Using Machine Learning
In conclusion, the integration of explainable AI methods into Techniques. Journal of Medical Systems, 45, 62. doi: 10.1007/s10916-
our heart disease prediction model will significantly enhance 021-01722-6
[13] Moon, S., Lee, W., & Hwang, J. (2019). Applying Machine Learning to
its transparency, reliability, and acceptance among clinicians
Predict Cardiovascular Diseases. Healthcare Informatics Research,
and patients. In our future work, we will prioritize the 25(2), 79-86. doi: 10.4258/hir.2019.25.2.79
development of robust explanation mechanisms to support [14] Lakshmi, M., & Ayeshamariyam, A. (2021). Machine Learning
clinical decision-making and improve patient outcomes. Techniques for Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk. International Journal
of Advanced Science and Technology, 30(3), 11913-11921. doi:
10.4399/97888255827001.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT [15] Md R. Hassan, Shamsul H., Mohammad M. H., Jemal A., Ahmed A.,
The authors extend their appreciation to the Deanship of Giancarlo F (2022). Early detection of cardiovascular autonomic
neuropathy: A multi-class classification model based on feature selection
Research and Graduate Studies at King Khalid University for
and deep learning feature fusion. Information Fusion, vol. 77, P 70-80.
funding this work through small group research under grant [16] Wongkoblap, A., Vadillo, M. A., & Curcin, V. (2018). Machine
number (RGP1/129/45). Learning Classifiers for Early Detection of Cardiovascular Disease.
Journal of Biomedical Informatics, 88, 44-51. doi:
10.1016/j.jbi.2018.09.003
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST [17] Delavar, M. R., Motwani, M., & Sarrafzadeh, M. (2015). A Comparative
The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest to Study on Feature Selection and Classification Methods for
report regarding the present study. Cardiovascular Disease Diagnosis. Journal of Medical Systems, 39(9),
98. doi: 10.1007/s10916-015-0333-5
[18] Yong, K., Kim, S., Park, S. J., & Kim, J. (2017). A Clinical Decision
AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIALS Support System for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction in Type 2
Diabetes Mellitus Patients using Decision Tree. Computers in Biology
The corresponding author will share study datasets upon and Medicine, 89, 413-421. doi: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2017.08.024
reasonable request. [19] Mirza, Q. Z., Siddiqui, F. A., & Naqvi, S. R. (2020). The Risk Prediction
of Cardiac Events using a Decision Tree Algorithm. Pakistan Journal of
Medical Sciences, 36(2), 85-89. doi: 10.12669/pjms.36.2.1511
REFERENCES [20] Farag, A., Farag, A., & Sallam, A. (2016). Improving Heart Disease
Prediction using Boosting and Bagging Techniques. Proceedings of the
[1] World Health Organization. Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs). Available
International Conference on Innovative Trends in Computer Engineering
online: https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/cardiovascular-diseases
(ITCE), 90-96. doi: 10.1109/ITCE.2016.7473338
(accessed on 5 May 2023).
[21] Jhajhria, S., & Kumar, R. (2020). Predicting the Risk of Cardiovascular
[2] Alom, Z.; Azim, M.A.; Aung, Z.; Khushi, M.; Car, J.; Moni, M.A
Diseases using Ensemble Learning Approaches. Soft Computing, 24(7),
(2021). Early Stage Detection of Heart Failure Using Machine Learning
4691-4705. doi: 10.1007/s00500-019-04268-8
Techniques. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Big Data,
[22] Samadiani, N., Eftekhari Moghadam, A. M., & Motamed C. (2016).
IoT, and Machine Learning, Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, 23–25.
SVM-based Classification of Cardiovascular Diseases using Feature
[3] Gour, S.; Panwar, P.; Dwivedi, D.; Mali, C. A (2022). Machine Learning
Selection: A High-Dimensional Dataset Perspective. Journal of Medical
Approach for Heart Attack Prediction. In Intelligent Sustainable
Systems, 40(11), 244. doi: 10.1007/s10916-016-0573-7
Systems; Springer: Singapore, pp. 741–747.
[23] Zhang, X., Zhang, Y., Du, X., & Li, B. (2019). Application of XGBoost
[4] Gupta, C.; Saha, A.; Reddy, N.S.; Acharya, U.D (2022). Cardiac Disease
algorithm in clinical prediction of coronary heart disease. Chinese
Prediction using Supervised Machine Learning Techniques. In Journal of
Journal of Medical Instrumentation, 43(1), 12-15.
Physics: Conference Series; IOP Publishing: Bristol, UK, Volume 2161, p.
[24] Liu, Y., Li, X., & Ren, J. (2021). A comparative analysis of machine
012013.
learning algorithms for heart disease prediction. Computer Methods and
[5] Shameer, K., Smith, B. M., Kodysh, J., Yonker, M., Glicksberg, B. S.,
Programs in Biomedicine, 200, 105965.
Udell, J. A., & Dudley, J. T. (2021). Machine learning predictions of
[25] Hussein, N. S., Mustapha, A., & Othman, Z. A. (2020). Comparative
cardiovascular disease risk in a multi-ethnic population using electronic
study of machine learning techniques for heart disease diagnosis.
health record data. International Journal of Medical Informatics, 146,
Computer Science and Information Systems, 17(4), 773-785.
104335.
[26] Akbar, S., Tariq, R., & Basharat, A. (2020). Heart disease prediction
[6] Liu, M., Sun, X., Liu, Y., Yang, X., Xu, Y., & Sun, X. (2020). Deep
using different machine learning approaches: A critical review. Journal
learning-based prediction of coronary artery disease with CT
of Ambient Intelligence and Humanized Computing, 11(5), 1973-1984.
angiography. Japanese Journal of Radiology, 38(4), 366-374.
[27] Zarshenas, A., Ghanbarzadeh, M., & Khosravi, A. (2019). A
[7] Zakria, N., Raza, A., Liaquat, F., & Khawaja, S. G. (2017). Machine
comparative study of machine learning algorithms for predicting heart
learning based analysis of cardiovascular disease prediction. Journal of
disease. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, 98, 44-54.
Medical Systems, 41(12), 207.
[28] Kaur, I., & Singh, G. (2019). Comparative analysis of machine learning
[8] Yang, M., Wang, X., Li, F., & Wu, J. (2016). A machine learning
algorithms for heart disease prediction. Journal of Biomedical
approach to identify risk factors for coronary heart disease: a big data
Informatics, 95, 103208.
analysis. Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine, 127, 262-
[29] Li, Y., Jia, W., & Li, J. (2018). Comparing different machine learning
270.
methods for predicting heart disease: A telemedicine case study. Health
[9] Ngufor, C., Hossain, A., Ali, S., & Alqudah, A. (2016). Machine
Information Science and Systems, 6, 7.
learning algorithms for heart disease prediction: a survey. International
[30] Zhang, X., Zhou, Y., & Xie, D. (2018). Heart disease diagnosis using
Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, 14(2), 7-29.
machine learning and expert system techniques: A survey paper. Journal
[10] Shoukat, A., Arshad, S., Ali, N., & Murtaza, G. (2020). Prediction of
of Medical Systems, 42(7), 129.
Cardiovascular Diseases using Machine Learning: A Systematic Review.
[31] Wu, J., Roy, J., Stewart, & W. F. (2017). A comparative study of
Journal of Medical Systems, 44(8), 162. doi: 10.1007/s10916-020-
machine learning methods for the prediction of heart disease. Journal of
01563-1
Healthcare Engineering, 2017, 7947461.
[11] Shankar, G. R., Chandrasekaran, K., & Babu, K. S. (2019). An Analysis
of the Potential Use of Machine Learning in Cardiovascular Disease
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4
This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Access. This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and
content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3437181
[32] Ahmed, Z., Mohamed, K., & Zeeshan, S.(2016). Comparison of machine
learning algorithms for predicting the risk of heart disease: A systematic
review. Journal of Healthcare Engineering, 2016, 7058278.
[33] Chen, X., Hu, Z., & Cao, Y. (2007). Heart disease diagnosis using
decision tree and naïve Bayes classifiers. World Congress on Medical
Physics and Biomedical Engineering, 14, 1668-1671.
[34] F. Pedregosa, G. Varoquaux, A. Gramfort & et al. (2011). “Scikit-learn:
machine learning in python,” Journal of Machine Learning Research,
vol. 12, pp. 2825–2830.
[35] Hosam E., Samir A. E., Omar H. K., Yasser M. A., Islam A.T.F.T.
(2024). A Proposed Technique Using Machine Learning for the
Prediction of Diabetes Disease Through a Mobile App. International
Journal of Intelligent Systems, volume 2024.
[36] Vitor B., Manoela K., Pedro D., Leonardo M. & Marco A. P. (2021).
Improving deep learning performance by using Explainable Artificial
Intelligence (XAI) approaches. Discover Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 1,
No. 9.
[37] Bryce G., Seth F. (2017). European Union Regulations on Algorithmic
Decision Making and a “Right to Explanation. AI Magazine, Vol. 38,
PP 50-57, Issue 3.
[38] Militello, C., Prinzi, F., Sollami, G. et al. (2023). CT Radiomic Features
and Clinical Biomarkers for Predicting Coronary Artery
Disease. Cognitive Computation, Vol. 15, PP 238–253.
[39] Zachary C. L. (2018). The Mythos of Model Interpretability: In machine
learning, the concept of interpretability is both important and slippery.
ACM Queue, Vol. 16, Issue 3, PP 31 - 57.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4