CHAPTER THREE - ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY

Definitions of some probability terms

 Probability (p): Is a chance occurrence of a given phenomena under

a certain condition.

 Random (Probability) Experiment: It is an experiment that can be

repeated any number of times under similar conditions and it is
possible to enumerate the total number of outcomes without predicting
an individual out come.

Example: testing defectiveness of concrete samples (defective or non-

defective)

and tossing a die once may happen 1,2,3,4,5,6.

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 Con’t
 Outcome :The result of a single trial of a random experiment.

 Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes of a probability

experiment.
 Event: It is a subset of sample space.

 It is a statement about one or more outcomes of a random

experiment.
Example: Considering the above experiment let
 A be the event of odd numbers,

 B be the event of even numbers, and

 C be the event of number 8.

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Con’t
 Equally Likely Events: Events which have the same chance of

occurring.

 Complement of an Event: the complement of an event A means

non-occurrence of A and is denoted by

contains those points of the sample space which don’t belong to
A.

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 Con’t
 Elementary Event: an event having only a single element or sample
point.

 Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events which cannot happen at the

same time.

 Independent Events: Two events are independent if the occurrence of

one does not affect the probability of the other occurring.

 Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event affects
the outcome or occurrence of the second event in a way the probability
is changed.

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 Example of Finite Countable Sample Space
What is the sample space for the following experiment

1. Experiment: Inspecting a batch of concrete samples for quality.

 Sample Space (S): 𝑆={Pass, Fail}

This indicates the possible outcomes of testing each sample for quality.

2. Load Testing Outcomes

Experiment: Conducting load tests on a set of beams. Sample Space (S)

 𝑆={Pass, Fail at Load A, Fail at Load B, Fail at Load C}

This includes outcomes based on whether the beam passed or failed at

specific load levels (A, B, C).

 Sample space can be Countable ( finite or infinite) or Uncountable.

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 Con’t
In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know

 The number of elements of an event

 The number of elements of the sample space.

That is in order to judge what is probable, we have to

know what is possible.

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 COUNTING RULES
In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can use several
rules of counting.

 The addition rule

 The multiplication rule

 Permutation rule and

 Combination rule

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 ADDITION RULE
 If a task can be accomplished by "k distinct“ procedures
where the ith procedures has 𝒏𝒊 alternatives , then the total
number of ways of doing the task is:

 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 𝒏𝟏 + 𝒏𝟐….. + 𝒏𝒌 .

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 EXAMPLE
1. Design Alternatives
 Scenario: Designing a bridge.

o Bridge Designs: 4 options (Arch, Beam, Cantilever, Suspension)

o Foundation Types: 3 options (Shallow, Deep, Pile)

Total Alternatives=4 (Bridge Designs)+3 (Foundation Types)=7

2. Safety Training Programs
 Scenario: Offering safety training for site workers.

 Training Programs: 2 options (Fall Protection, Hazardous Materials)

 Certification Programs: 3 options (First Aid, CPR, Confined Spaces)

 Total Programs=2 (Training Programs)+3 (Certification Programs)=5

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 The Multiplication Rule
.

 If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be

made in n1 ways, the second can be made in n2 ways, …,
the kth can be made in nk ways, then the whole choice can
be made in
 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 𝒏𝟏 𝒏𝟐 𝒏 𝒌 .
∗ ∗ ⋯∗
Note: In this case and means to multiply.

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 Example
1. Selecting materials for a construction project.
Choices:
 Concrete Type: 3 options (Standard, High Strength , Lightweight)
 Reinforcement Type: 2 options (Steel, Fiber). How many different
ways of selecting materials are there?

Total ways = 3 (Concrete Types)×2 (Reinforcement Types) = 6

Outcomes:

Standard + Steel, Standard + Fiber , High Strength + Steel ,

High Strength + Fiber , Lightweight + Steel ,Lightweight + Fiber

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Permutation
An arrangement of n objects in a specified order is called
permutation of the objects.

Permutation Rules:

1. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken all together

is n!

 Where n! n * (n  1) * (n  2) * .....* 3 * 2 *1

 CONT…
2 . The arrangement of n objects in a specified order using r objects at a
time is called the permutation of n objects taken r objects at a time. It
is written as formula is

n!
n Pr  ( n  r )!

3. The number of permutations of n objects in which 𝒌𝟏 are alike (the

same), 𝒌𝟐 are alike, ... etc, then the total number of arrangements is

𝒏!
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 = ;
𝒌𝟏 ! ∗ 𝒌𝟐 ! ∗ 𝒌𝟑 ! ∗⋯∗ 𝒌𝒑 !

𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒: 𝑘1 + 𝑘2 + 𝑘3 + ⋯ + 𝑘𝑝 = 𝑛.

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 EXAMPLE
1. Arranging Construction Materials

Scenario: A civil engineer has 5 distinct types of construction materials

to use on a project: Concrete, Steel, Wood, Glass, and Brick. The
engineer wants to arrange all 5 materials in a specific order for a
presentation. Calculation:𝑃(𝑛)=𝑛!=5!=5×4×3×2×1=120

Total Permutations: 120 ways to arrange the 5 types of materials.

2. Selecting and Arranging Construction Equipment

Scenario: A civil engineer has 6 distinct pieces of construction

equipment: Excavator, Crane, Bulldozer, Mixer, Dump Truck, and
Scaffolding. The engineer needs to select and arrange 3 pieces of
equipment in a specific order for a project demonstration. 14
Solution

3. Arrangement of Different Types of Bricks

Scenario: A civil engineer has a set of bricks for a wall construction. The set
consists of 10 bricks,
where:4 are red (alike),3 are blue (alike) and 3 are green (alike)
 Total bricks 𝑛=10
Alike bricks: 𝑘1=(red), 𝑘2=3(blue), 𝑘3=3(green)

Total Permutations: 4,200 ways to arrange the bricks. 15

Combination
It is a selection of r objects from n objects with out regard to order.

Combination Rule
 The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects
is denoted by

 n
n Cr or 
r
 

 n n!
and is given by the formula:   
 r  (n  r )!*r!

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 Example
1. Choosing Safety Equipment

Scenario: A construction site manager needs to choose 2 types of safety

equipment from a selection of 5 available types (Helmet, Gloves, Boots,
Goggles, and Vest) with out regards to order.

 Total Combinations: 10 ways to choose 2 types of safety equipment

from 5.
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Exercises
1. A construction manager needs to form a safety committee consisting
of 3 members from a group of 8 safety officers. How many different
combinations of safety officers can be selected for the committee?
2. A civil engineer is tasked with selecting 4 different concrete mixes
from a list of 10 available mixes for a construction project. How
many different combinations of concrete mixes can the engineer
choose?
3. A project manager has 6 distinct construction tasks to complete: Site
Preparation, Foundation, Framing, Roofing, Plumbing, and
Electrical. If the manager wants to arrange 4 of these tasks in a
specific order for a project timeline, how many different
arrangements of tasks can be made?
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 Approaches to measuring Probability
There are four different conceptual approaches to the study
of probability theory.

 The classical approach.

 The frequentist approach.

 The axiomatic approach.

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 The classical approach
This approach is used when:All outcomes are equally likely and
Total number of outcome is finite, say N.

Definition: If a random experiment with N equally likely outcomes is

conducted and out of these NA outcomes are favorable to the event A,
then the probability that event A occur denoted is defined as

N A No. of outcomes favourable to A n( A)

P( A)   
N Total number of outcomes n( S )

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 Example 1
1. A civil engineer evaluates a bridge and finds that, based on historical
data, 5 out of 200 similar bridges have failed under similar
conditions. What is the probability of failure for a new bridge built
under the same conditions?
Solution :The probability of failure 𝑃 can be calculated using the
formula:
P(Failure) = Number of failures/Total number of bridges = 5/200=0.025
So, the probability of failure for the new bridge is 0.025 or 2.5%.

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 Example 2
In concrete testing, there are 4 defective and 6 non-defective concretes per
batch. If 3 of these concretes are selected at random, what is the probability
a. All will be defective.
b. 2 will be non- defective.
c. All will be non- defective. Exercise !
Solution
Let's calculate the probabilities using the combination formula.
Given:
 Total defective concretes = 4
 Total non-defective concretes = 6
 Total concretes = 4 + 6 = 10
 Number of selected concretes = 3
a. The probability 𝑃 that all 3 selected concretes are defective is given by:
𝑃(𝐴𝑙𝑙 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒) = 𝐶(4,3)/𝐶(10,3) = 4/120 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑𝟑𝟑
a. The probability 𝑃 that 2 selected concretes are non-defective is given by:
𝑃 2 𝑛𝑜𝑛 − 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒, 1 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 = 𝐶 6,2 ⋅ 𝐶 4,1 𝐶 10,3
= 60/120 = 𝟎. 𝟓
​
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 Exercises
1. In a batch of steel beams, there are 5 defective beams and 10 non-defective
beams. If 4 beams are selected at random, what is the probability:

a. All will be defective.

b. 2 will be non-defective.

c. All will be non-defective.

2. In a quality control test for asphalt, there are 3 defective samples and 7 non-
defective samples. If 5 samples are selected at random, what is the probability:

1. All will be defective.

2. 3 will be non-defective.

3. All will be non-defective.

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 The Frequentist Approach
 This is based on the relative frequencies of outcomes belonging to
an event.

 Definition: The probability of an event A is the proportion of

outcomes favorable to A in the long run when the experiment is
repeated under same condition.

NA
P ( A)  lim
N  N

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 Example
1. If records show that 60 out of 100,000 bulbs produced are defective.
What is the probability of a newly produced bulb to be defective?

Solution: Let A be the event that the newly produced bulb is defective.

NA 60
P( A)  lim   0.0006
N  N 100,000

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Axiomatic Approach:
Let E be a random experiment and S be a sample space associated
with E.

With each event A a real number called the probability of A satisfies

the following properties called axioms of probability or postulates of
probability

1. P( A)  0
2. P( S )  1, S is the sure event.
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, the probability that
one or the other occur equals the sum of the two probabilities.

P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B) 26
4. If A and B are independent events, the probability that both will
occur is the product of the two probabilities.
i.e. P(A ∩ B) = P(A)*P(B)

5. P( A' )  1  P( A)

6. 0  P( A)  1

7. P(ø) =0, ø is the impossible event.

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 Example
1. In a construction project, the probability of a delay due to weather
conditions is 0.15, and the probability of a delay due to labor strikes
is 0.10. What is the probability that a project will be delayed due to
either of these two events?

Solution :
Let P(W)=0.15 (weather delay) and P(L)=0.10 (labor strike delay).

Since these events are mutually exclusive, the probability of either event
occurring is:

 P(W∪L)=P(W)+P(L)=0.15+0.10=0.25

 Thus, the probability that the project will be delayed due to either
weather conditions or labor strikes is 0.25 or 25%. 28
 Exercises
1. A civil engineering firm estimates that the probability of a defect in a
concrete mix due to improper mixing is 0.04, and the probability of a
defect due to contamination is 0.03. What is the probability that a batch of
concrete will have a defect due to either of these causes?
2. In a construction site, the probability that a crane will fail during operation
is 0.05. The probability that a generator will fail is 0.03.
a. What is the probability that both the crane and the generator will fail
during operation?
b. What is the probability that the crane or the generator will fail during
operation?
c. What is the probability that neither the crane nor the generator will fail
during operation?
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