College of Agriculture and Natural Resource

Department of Natural Resource Management

Research proposal on

Impacts of climate change on Crop production in East Gojjam Zone

By

Mengist Belay (MSc in Natural Resource Management (Department of NaRM))

Dagmawi Luelseged (MSc in Watershed Management (Department of NaRM))

Desie Geta (MSc in Irrigation and Drainage Engineering (Department of NaRM))

Mulatu Kassaye (PhD in Agronomy/ Crop Physiology (Department of Plant science))

December, 2017

Debre Markos

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Contents
Chapter One.....................................................................................................................................4

1. Introduction..................................................................................................................................4

1.1 Background............................................................................................................................4

1.2 Statement of the Problem.......................................................................................................6

1.3. Objective of the study...........................................................................................................7

1.3.1. The specific objectives of the study...............................................................................7

1.4. Basic Research questions......................................................................................................7

1.5 Significance of the study........................................................................................................8

1.6 Scope of the study..................................................................................................................8

Chapter Two....................................................................................................................................9

2. Literature Review.......................................................................................................................9

2.1 Conceptual Literature.............................................................................................................9

2.1.1 Definition of Conceptual Terms......................................................................................9

2.1.2 Climate variability.........................................................................................................10

2.1.3 Sensitivity......................................................................................................................10

2.1.4 Vulnerability..................................................................................................................10

2.1.5 Empirical literatures......................................................................................................11

2.1.6 Mechanism for Climatic Impacts on Crops...................................................................14

2.2 Description of AquaCrop Model......................................................................................17

Chapter Three................................................................................................................................19

3. Materials and Methods .............................................................................................................19

3.1 Description of the study area...............................................................................................19

3.2 Experimental Design and Procedure...................................................................................21

3.2.1 Samples techniques.......................................................................................................21

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 3.2.2 Model selection.............................................................................................................21

3.3. Data to be collected.............................................................................................................22

3.4. Data Analysis......................................................................................................................22

4. Time Table and Budget Breakdown..........................................................................................24

4.1. Expected time table/work plan...........................................................................................24

4.2 Budget Breakdown...............................................................................................................25

Reference.......................................................................................................................................27

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Chapter One

1. Introduction
1.1 Background
Rising fossil fuel burning and land use changes have emitted, and are continuing to emit,
increasing quantities of greenhouse gases into the Earth’s atmosphere. These greenhouse gases
include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrogen dioxide (N2O), and a rise in these
gases has caused a rise in the amount of heat from the sun withheld in the Earth’s atmosphere,
heat that would normally be radiated back into space. This increase in heat has led to the
greenhouse effect, resulting in climate change. The main characteristics of climate change are
increases in average global temperature (global warming); changes in cloud cover and
precipitation particularly over land; melting of ice caps and glaciers and reduced snow cover; and
increases in ocean temperatures and ocean acidity – due to seawater absorbing heat and carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere

Climate change has become sensitive issue at global level because of its ecological, social and
economic impacts. Some facts about global climate change include: increasing temperature (0.74
0
c increase per annum), melting polar icecaps, uncontrolled forest fires and annual average
increase in sea level of 3.1 mm (Spore, 2008). Evidences from different scientific literatures
indicated that, the increased temperature and highly variable precipitation caused by climate
change over the coming decades will seriously affect agricultural production.

According to Meseret (2009), Global and regional climate change will affect all economic
sectors. The Agricultural sector is perhaps the most sensitive and vulnerable economy since
agricultural production remains highly dependent on elements of climate. It is also assumed that,
African countries that depend on natural resources and rainfed agriculture are more vulnerable to
the risk of climate change. In line with this, the inter governmental panel on climate change
(IPCC,2007a) has estimated that, by 2020 agricultural production would decline by 50% in some
countries with rainfed agriculture.

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Similar to other developing countries or parts of Africa, the impacts of climate change in
Ethiopia is very high particularly on its agricultural production. According to the National
Meteorological Agency, long term climate change in Ethiopia is associated with changes in
precipitation patterns, rainfall variability and temperature, which could increase the countries
frequency of both droughts and floods (NMA,2007).

Ethiopia is particularly vulnerable to global climate change, given its massive reliance on
agriculture. Eighty-five per cent of Ethiopians live in rural areas and most rely on subsistence
farming for survival. Nearly 95 per cent of the country’s agricultural production is cultivated on
family holdings, most of less than 1 hectare. Agriculture accounts for more than half of GDP and
as much as 90 per cent of exports and employment. Farmers and pastoralists in Ethiopia rely on
two annual rainy seasons: Kiremt, the main rainy season for most of the country, from June to
September, and Belg, the shorter rainy season from February to May. Rainfall is already highly
variable. As most farmers have no access to irrigation, when the rains do not come, it can equal
catastrophe. Nearly 40 per cent of Ethiopia’s 90 million populations are considered food
insecure.
In Ethiopia, mean annual temperature increased by 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006, an average
rate of 0.28°C per decade. The increase in temperature has been most rapid for the period of
July-September, at a rate of 0.32°C per decade. Daily temperature observations show
significantly rates of increase in the frequency of hot days, and much larger increases in the
frequency of hot nights (World Bank, 2010).

This has already led to a decline in agricultural production and cereal production is expected to
decline still further by 12% under moderate global warming (Ringer, 2008). Climate model
projections show there is a significant decrease in mean annual precipitation and uncertainty
about the future distribution, timing and intensity of rainfall in Ethiopia (Parry,M.L et al,2007).
Accordingly, in recent times, significant number of people in Ethiopia is being affected
chromatically by drought and/or flooding, leading to deaths and loss of assets and to an appeal
for international support.

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Factors compounding the impacts of climate change in Ethiopia are rapid population growth,
land degradation, widespread poverty, dependecy on rainfed Agriculture, lack of awareness by
policy and decision makers about climate change and lack of appropriate policies and legislation
(Wondwossen, 2008, Daniel, 2008 and NMA, 2007). Thus, for many poor countries like
Ethiopia that is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Mahmud Y., et al., 2008).
Over the period 1980-2010 ten major drought disasters were reported in Ethiopia. Each
successive drought makes it more difficult to recover, making the people of Ethiopia all the more
vulnerable to climate change. Already in Ethiopia, temperatures have been rising, and the length
of the main growing season across eastern Africa has reduced by 15 percent. Even if drastic
reductions in emissions are achieved, future climate changes are expected to significantly reduce
Ethiopia’s main cereal crops. If emissions continue unabated, average temperature increases of
approximately 4oC could be devastating. And yet, Ethiopia has relatively little control over
which scenario plays out – since its carbon dioxide emissions, at 0.1 metric tons per capita, are
already among the lowest in the world, it must rely on other countries reducing their carbon
emissions to ensure its future (Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008).

1.2 Statement of the Problem

The potential adverse impacts of climate change are a major concern for Ethiopia because of the
fact that the country's economy is heavily dependent on agriculture. In Ethiopia the agricultural
sector employs more than 80% of labour force; it is also accounts 50% of GDP and 90% of the
export revenue. In the country large numbers of farmers are engaged in small holding and
subsistence agriculture (MoFED, 2006).

Thus, most of the small scale farmers in the country whose livelihood mainly depend on rain fed
agriculture are highly vulnerable to climate change. Ethiopia 's low level of economic
development combined with its heavy dependency on rain fed agriculture, which is sensitive to
climate change and its high population growth rate make the country particularly exposed to
climate change and due to low adaptative capacity, it has become highly vulnerable to the
adverse impacts of these changes (Simane, B.2011).

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So that, East Gojjam Zone is one of the most known crop producing area and their economic
source is also mainly depends on agriculture as part and parcel of Ethiopia however, the area has
been affected by the impacts of global climate change. Though the local level impact in the area
were not yet studied in detail to quantify the impact of climate change and publicized, rough
studies showed that there is climate change in the area. The survey document done by East
Gojjam Zone Finance and Economic Development office in 2009 showed that, because of high
level of deforestation for farming, charccoal and fire wood combined with soil degradation the
area is getting more vulnerable to climate change.

Despite the impacts of climate change has been observed in East Gojjam zone as well as in a
country level Ethiopia, enough studies that could bring solutions were not yet done on the area.
Through it was more general a study was conducted on the impacts of climate change on
agriculture and farmer’s adaptation options was conducted by Abinet B (2011) in Oromia region.
However, climate change vulnerability should be studies at local level with various agro
ecologies for its better projection.

Nevertheless, to the best knowledge of the researcher, no study has been done on impacts of
climate change on agricultural production in East Gojjam Zone. Thus this paper will be intended
to capture the level of climate change impacts on agricultural production in the zone.

1.3. Objective of the study

The general objective of this research is to assess impacts of climate change on crop production
and outline alternative climate adaptation strategies in East Gojjam Zone.

1.3.1. The specific objectives of the study include:

 To determine the long term effect of climate change on major field crop production.
 To quantify the past and future impact of climate change on crop production

1.4. Basic Research questions

 How climate change affect crop production?

 At what extent climate change the past and future crop production?

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1.5 Significance of the study
This study is vital to investigate the impacts of climate change on crop production. In
consquence, the result of this study will have a number of advantages to several stakeholders in
East Gojjam Zone.

The result of this study will be an insight for agricultural experts and administrators at local,
woreda and zonal levels to know how local farmers understood the current climate change and to
what extent they tried to adjust the agriculture production with the increased temperature and
variable precipitation.

In this way local farmers will become familiar with the recommended better adaptation strategy
known by the experts and get advantageous to get solutions for their most central problems
related to climate change impacts.

On the other hand, the result of this research will serve as an input to those policy makers,
planners as well as implementers at different levels from local to federal in designing better
climate change resilient agricultural and rural development policies, strategies and programs.

Furthermore, this research would be important for other interested researchers as a spring board
or an input to conduct further studies on local level vulnerability and impact on agricultural
production, since sufficient studies related to climate change was not done in the country as
well as in this Zone.

1.6 Scope of the study

The study encompasses impacts of climate change on crop production. It will also be delineated
only in one food in secured woredas of the zone with agro ecological selection of some kebele
administrations from each of them.

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Chapter Two

2. Literature Review
2.1 Conceptual Literature

2.1.1 Definition of Conceptual Terms

This section of the research defines concepts and terms related to climate change and
agricultural crop productivity.

2.1.1.1 Climate Change

The Inter-Governmental Panel on climate change (IPCC), an authoritative voice on climate
change issues, refers to climate change as any change in climate over time, whether due to
natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC, 2007). As USAID (2007), it is shifts
in the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (decades
or longer). Climate change may be due to natural changes or to persistent anthropogenic
changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.

The United Nations Frame work conversions on climate change (UNFCCC) Article 1 however,
makes distinction between climate changes attribute to human activities altering the
atmospheric composition and climate variability attributable to natural causes. Scientific
evidence indicates that due to increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
the climate of the earth is changing; temprature is increasing and the amount and distribution of
rainfall is being altered (Houghton et al.1996).

According to Houghton (1996) cited in Kinfe Hailemariam (1999), the IPCC scientific
assessment suggests that global average temperature may increase between 1.5 and 4.5 0c, with
a best estimate of 2.00c, in the next century with a doubling of the CO 2 concentration in the
atmosphere. Climate change that reduces either the overall quantity of water or the timing of
when water is available for use will have important effects on agriculture and industrial and
urban development.

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2.1.2 Climate variability
Climate variability is variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard
deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales
beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may result from natural internal processes
within the climate system (internal variability) or from variations in natural or anthropogenic
external forcing (external variability) (IPCC 2001). According to Abebe (2008) stated in
Yohannes and Mebratu (2009) climate variability is the fluctuation in climatic parameters from
the normal or baseline values, where as climate change is a change in the long-term mean value
of a particular climate parameter.

2.1.3 Sensitivity
In is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related
stimuli. The effect may be direct (e,g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the
mean, range, or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the
frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise) (IPCC, 2001).

2.1.4 Vulnerability
Vulnerability is defined as the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with,
adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a
function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system
is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007b). Vulnerability is
conceptualized in different ways across different disciplines. Liverman (1990) noted that
vulnerability has been equated to concepts such as resilience, risk, marginality, adaptability and
exposure. This diversity of conceptualization is due to the fact that the term vulnerability has
been used in different policy contexts, referring to different systems exposed to different hazards.
As stated in Kelly and Adger (2000) and Brooks (2003) and cited in Yohannes and Mebratu
(2009) indicates that the climate change literature provides two main distinct epistemological
approaches to conceptualizing vulnerability. One approaches views vulnerability as the “end
point,” in terms of the amount of (potential) damage caused to a system by a particular climate
related event or hazard. The second approach considers vulnerability as the “starting point,” i.e.
as a state that exists within a system before it encounters a hazard event.

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2.1.5 Empirical literatures

2.1.5.1 Climate change and agriculture

Global scale changes in climate will manifest as changes in average climate conditions, changes
in variability at daily, seasonal, inter annual, decadal, and other time scales, and changes in
extremes, all of which exhibit substantial spatial variation. The temporal and spatial patterns of
change will be critical determinants of climate risks, critically as regards accidence of thresholds
of vulnerability (IPCC, 2007). Climate change has an effect on different sectors of the economy
but its effect on agricultural sector is very severe. This is mainly because the activity is highly
dependent o climate elements particularly precipitation and temperature. Likewise, crop
production is extremely susceptible to climate change. It has been estimated that climate changes
are likely to reduce yields and damage crops in the 21 st century, although, notably, effects are
expected to differ widely in different parts of the world (IPCC, 2007).

Research on climate change impacts, adaption, and vulnerability requires information about past
and current social and economic conditions, correlated with climatic and environmental data, to
investigate empirically the causes of vulnerability to climate stress, the consequences of
exposures, and the efficacy of adaptive strategies that have been used in the past. Information
about future social and economic conditions, or socioeconomic scenarios, is needed to examine
future impacts, adaption, and vulnerability. Mitigation research is also dependent on past data
and future scenarios of social and economic conditions (IPCC, 2007).

However, in Africa for many regions there is no available surface water so that warming
scenarios with reduced rainfall are particularly deleterious. On the other hand, mild scenarios
with increased rainfall may not be harmful at all (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelson, 2006).
Accordingly, there are also literatures done on the impact of climate change on crop productivity
shows that, global climate change reduces farmers’ net revenue of crop production. This effect
is sounder to African agriculture. African net farm revenues are highly sensitive to changes in
climate. The sensitivity is relatively high for changes in temperature. Further warming and
drying have severed adverse effects on farm net revenue.

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 Variations in sensitivity to climate based on farm type and whether the farm is dry land or
irrigated. Dry land and specialized crop or livestock farms suffer most from further increase in
warming and drying compared to irrigated and mixed crop livestock farms. Therefore, farming
system found in dry and semi dry arid lowland areas will suffer most with the increase of
temperature.

In Africa, both land value and net revenue are sensitive to temperature and precipitation. The
land value and net revenue of farms have hill shaped relationships with temperature. Farmers at
moderate temperature earn more profit compared to farmers at extreme tropical temperature (Seo
and Mendelson, 2007). Other literatures indicate that African farms are sensitive to climate and
especially temperature. It finds that farm net revenues are lower in places with higher
temperatures.

Specifically, the temperature elasticity with respect to the net revenue of African farms is
estimated to be -1.3. That is, a 10% increase in temperature will lead to a 13% decline in net
revenue. The precipitation elasticity is estimated to be 0.4. African farms are more sensitive to
changes in temperature than changes in precipitation. The sensitivity is the greatest for dry land
farms with a temperature elasticity of -1.6 and a precipitation elasticity of 0.5. Irrigated farms, by
contrast, are resilient to temperature changes and may actually increase in value (partly because
of their location in temperate regions of Africa). These results are similar to preliminary analyses
using the same data (kurukulasuriya et al., 2006). Similar results were also found for us farms
(Mendelsohn et al., 1994; Mendelsohn & Nordhaus, 1999; Mendelsohn et al., 2001; Mendelsohn
& dinar, 2003).

On the other hand, South American agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change. If global
warming is mild, the impact will be small. However, if severe warming scenarios come to pass,
farmers could lose up to 50% of their net revenue by the end o this century. This would be a
stunning blow to the agricultural sector in South America. The impact would be even more
devastating to the hottest most vulnerable regions in South America (Seo and Mendelsohn,
2007).

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There are also literatures expressing the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in
general and crop production in particular in particular in several countries of Africa. For
instance, the net crop revenue of Kenyan farmers gets changed with the variation of temperature
and precipitation in different seasons. Climate affects Kenyan agricultural productivity.
Increased winter temperatures increase net crop net revenue, while high summer temperature
decease it.
Increased precipitation increased crop net revenue. There is no linear relationship between
temperature and crop revenue on the one hand and between precipitation and crop revenue
(Mariara and Karanja, 2007). In the same token that Deressa, and Reshid(2009), have tried to
show how the change in climate elements in place and season affect Ethiopian, farmers net crop
revenue. Increasing precipitation during spring increases the net revenue per hectare by US$
225.08, whereas increasing precipitation during winter significantly reduces net revenue by US$
464.76. Marginally increasing precipitation in summer and the fall also reduces the net revenue
per hectare by US$ 18.88 and US$ 64.19, respectively, even though the level of reduction is not
significant. Increasing annual precipitation marginally will reduce the net revenue per hectare.
This is mainly because of the high intensity precipitation in some of the seasons that is more than
that of crop requires.

2.1.5.2 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture

An extensive literature has developed on the impacts of climate change on agriculture, with the
earliest focusing primarily on the vulnerability of the sector. The general message to emerge
from this literature is that the degree of vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change
is contingent on a wide range of local environmental and management factors.
Key features include local biological conditions such as soil content, type of crop that is grown,
extent of knowledge and awareness of expected changes in climate, type and objectives of the
management regimes prevalent in agriculture (that is, maximizing output or revenues, and so on),
the extent of support from government and other external (private) agencies, and the ability of
key stakeholders (at the national, local, and household level) to undertake the necessary remedial
steps to address climate concerns, to name a few.

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 In a sense, the increased uncertainty of climate effects represents an additional problem that
farmers have to address. For example, poor soil quality, financial constraints, and lack of access
to markets can constrain agricultural productivity to begin with, regardless of climate effects.
Climate change thus represents an additional burden that for farmers translates into production
risks associated with crop yields, probabilities of extreme events, timing of field operations, and
timing of investments in new technologies.

2.1.6 Mechanism for Climatic Impacts on Crops

Hulme (1996) describes four ways in which climate would have a physical effect on crops. First,
changes in temperature and precipitation will alter the distribution of agro-ecological zones.
Changes in soil moisture and content and the timing and length of growing seasons will be
affected in various ways in different parts of the world. Rosenzweig and Hillel (1995) state that
in middle and higher latitudes, higher temperatures will lengthen growing seasons and expand
crop producing areas pole-ward, thus benefiting countries in these regions. While less fertile
soils in higher latitudes will temper some of the gains of an extended growing season, it is not
clear to what additional extent soils will be a real constraint given that numerous other factors
(such as changes in precipitation levels, fertilizer use, irrigation availability, and so on) will also
have a significant influence on the final outcome.
In contrast, in lower latitudes, it is expected that higher temperatures will adversely affect
growing conditions, especially in areas where temperatures are close to or at the optimal level for
crop growth to begin with. Irrigation availability and demand will also be affected by both
changes in temperature and precipitation. Reduction in precipitation is likely to intensify further
aquifer exploitation for agriculture and place additional burdens on other surface and
groundwater resources from non-agricultural use (such as industrial and municipal needs). An
increase of potential evapo transpiration is likely to intensify drought stress, especially in the
semiarid tropics and subtropics (Hillel and Rosenzweig 1989). For example, temperatures in
Africa are expected to rise at less than the global average, and will have varying impacts
depending upon the underlying type of agro-ecological zone. That is, impacts will depend on
initial temperatures.

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Fischer and Velthuizen (1996) and Downing (1992) explore the impact of climate change on
Kenya, and find that higher temperatures would have a positive impact in highland areas.
Downing (1992), relying on a model of land use to estimate changes in availability of land
suitable for cropping, has shown that in highland areas of western Kenya, there is likely to be a
67 percent increase in “high potential” land in response to a 2.5° C rise in average temperature.
In contrast, rising ambient temperatures may have a detrimental effect in many lowland areas,
particularly those that are semiarid. For some crops, plant metabolism begins to break down
above 40°C, and a reduction in growing periods due to accelerated growth can reduce the yields
(Hulme, 1996).
Second, carbon dioxide effects are expected to have a positive impact due to, for example,
greater water use efficiency and higher rate of photosynthesis. Numerous publications dealing
with the agronomic effects of climate change offer the following explanation concerning carbon
dioxide concentrations, which are expected to rise by as much as 57 percent by 2050 (Ringius
and others 1996; Hulme 1996). Rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are
important to agriculture because they increase the rate of photosynthesis and water use
efficiency. These effects are strongest for plants with the C3 photosynthetic pathway, which
include crops such as wheat, rice, and soybean. Carbon dioxide enrichment is also positive
though not by as much— for C4 plants such as maize, millet, and sorghum, and many grasses
(and thus weeds). IPCC (1996) and Reilly etal.(1996) estimate that a doubling of carbon dioxide
concentrations would lead to yield improvements ranging from 10–30 percent. Ringius and
others (1996) suggest that water use efficiency will increase in the same range. However, while
higher atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will, by reducing evapotranspiration, improve water
use efficiency of crops and increase the rate of photosynthesis (Darwin 2001), the net result may
be moderated by costly pest and weed infestations (Rosenzweig and Hillel 1995).

At the same time, there is a debate on whether expected increments in productivity due to CO 2
have been overestimated. Horowitz argues that while increases in global temperature occur with
a lengthy lag (after the increased concentration of greenhouse gases), fertilization should happen
virtually instantaneously. Thus, given the increase in CO 2 concentration that has occurred,
Horowitz claims that the fertilization effects in crop yields should already be apparent.

15
 Of course, carbon fertilization effects may be responsible for some of the rapid increases in
production observed throughout the world. Several papers have examined effects of carbon
fertilization in forests. In natural forests, there is reason to believe that carbon fertilization effects
may be limited by shortages in other nutrients (citation). Clearly this is less of a problem with
agriculture where farmers regularly supplement nutrients through fertilizers. Berry and Roderick
(2002) examine the relationship between the observed 20 percent increase in CO 2 over the last
two hundred years and land-use effects on Australian vegetation and conclude that the seasonally
green leaves of annual and ephemeral herbaceous plants vegetation cover is roughly the same
over this period. In addition, their results highlighted that the increase in evergreen cover is
likely to have been caused by the increase in CO2 concentrations, but it alone is unlikely to be the
sole cause of the change. In another paper, Lutze and others (1999) report that crop growth under
elevated CO2 led to spring frost damage in field-grown seedlings of snow gum (Eucalyptus
pauciflora Sieb, ex Spreng), a usually frost-tolerant eucalyptus. Their result suggests that an
increase in frost susceptibility may lower likely gains in productivity from CO 2 fertilization. This
result clearly will be less important as frost risk is reduced from higher temperatures.
Third, water availability (or runoff) is a critical factor in determining the impact of climate
change in many places, particularly in Africa. A number of studies suggest that precipitation and
the length of the growing season are critical in determining whether climate change positively or
negatively affects agriculture (Hulme, 1996; Fischer, 1996; Strzepek and Smith 1995; Sivakumar
1992). However, as outlined earlier, constraints abound on the scientific ability to predict trends
in rainfall with much certainty. For other parts of the world too, there is less confidence about
precipitation than other climatic changes. A lack of comprehensive regional and sub-regional
precipitation models limit researchers’ ability to reach firm conclusions about related impacts on
agriculture.
Fourth, agricultural losses can result from climatic variability and the increased frequency of
extreme events such as droughts and floods or changes in precipitation and temperature variance.
As outlined in Rosenzweig and Hillel (1995), a higher frequency of droughts is likely to increase
pressure on water supplies for numerous reasons ranging from plant transpiration to allocation.

16
In contrast, increases in rainfall intensity in other regions can lead to higher rates of soil erosion,
leaching of agricultural chemicals, and runoff that carries livestock waste and nutrients into
water bodies.
While current climate forecasts are not clear about how extreme events and variability will
change across agro-climatic zones, it is expected that adjustment costs are likely to be higher
with greater rates of change (Adams and others, 1999). One area that has received substantial
attention in recent years is El Niño/Southern oscillation (ENSO). ENSO has been responsible for
considerable variation in both temperature and precipitation. Of particular concern are areas such
as Southern Africa where these effects are important. The expected variability of temperature,
precipitation, atmospheric carbon content, and extreme events are forecast to have profound
effects on plant growth and yields, crops, soils, insects, weeds, diseases, livestock, and water
availability in Africa (Adams and others 1998; see also IPCC (1996) for a wide-ranging
overview of the likely impacts on the agricultural sector). Burton (2001) suggests that expected
impacts in dry land areas include reduction in rainfall, rise in temperature, and increased rainfall
variability. Some arid areas such as Mauritania, Mali, and Niger may even get higher levels of
rainfall. Highland areas are also expected to benefit, since the growing season would be
lengthened and the incidence of frost diminished. In contrast, other, more sub humid zones, such
as Burkino Faso, Mali and Ghana are expected to suffer from reductions in rainfall.

2.2 Description of AquaCrop Model

AquaCrop is the FAO crop growth -model to simulate yield response to water. It is designed to
balance simplicity, accuracy and robustness, and is particularly suited to address conditions
where water is a key limiting factor in crop production. AquaCrop is a companion tool for a wide
range of users and applications including yield prediction under climate change scenarios.
AquaCrop is a completely revised version of the successful CropWat model. The main difference
between CropWat and AquaCrop is that the latter includes more advanced crop growth routines.
AquaCrop includes the following sub-model components: the soil, with its water balance; the
crop, with its development, growth and yield; the atmosphere, with its thermal regime, rainfall,
evaporative demand and CO2 concentration; and the management, with its major agronomic
practice such as irrigation and fertilization.

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The particular features that distinguishes AquaCrop from other crop models is its focus on water,
the use of ground canopy cover instead of leaf area index, and the use of water productivity
values normalized for atmospheric evaporative demand and of carbon dioxide concentration.
This enables the model with the extrapolation capacity to diverse locations and seasons,
including future climate scenarios. Moreover, although the model is simple, it gives particular
attention to the fundamental processes involved in crop productivity and in the responses to
water, from a physiological and agronomic background perspective.

Figure 1. Main processes included in AquaCrop.

The impact of climate change can be included in AquaCrop by three factors: (i) adjusting the
precipitation data file, (ii) adjusting the temperature data file, (iii) impact of enhanced CO 2
levels. The first two options are quite straightforward and require the standard procedure of
creating climate input files in AquaCrop. Impact of enhanced CO 2 levels are calculated by
AquaCrop itself. AquaCrop uses for this the so-called normalized water productivity (WP*) for
the simulation of aboveground biomass. The WP is normalized for the atmospheric CO 2
concentration and for the climate, taking into consideration the type of crop (e.g. C 3 or C4). The
C4 crops assimilate carbon at twice the rate of C3 crops.

18
Chapter Three

3. Materials and Methods

3.1 Description of the study area

East Gojjam Administrative Zone is one of the eleven Zones of Amhara National Regional State
and constitutes 20 Districts (16 rural woredas, and 4 Town administration Woredas). It is
bordered on the south by the Oromia Region, on the west by Mirab Gojjam, on the north by
Debub Gondar, and on the east by Debub Wollo; the bend of the Abay River defines the Zone's
northern, eastern and southern boundaries. Its highest point is Mount Choqa (also known as
Mount Birhan) (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Map of the study area.

19
The climate of Ethiopia is mainly controlled by the seasonal migration of the Inter-Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which follows the position of the sun relative to the earth and the
associated atmospheric circulation, in conjunction with the complex topography of the country
(NMSA,2001). There are different ways of classifying the climatic systems of Ethiopia,
including the traditional, the Köppen’s, the Throthwaite’s, the rainfall regimes, and the agro-
climatic zone classification systems (Yohannes, 2003). The most commonly used classification
systems are the traditional and the agroecological zones (AEZs). According to the traditional
classification system, which mainly relies on altitude and temperature, Ethiopia has five climatic
zones.

Similar to the country the topography of the East Gojjam Zone contains four Agro-ecological
zones like ‘kola’ (lowlands with relatively low rainfall and high temperature), ‘Woina-Dega’
(middle highlands with moderate amount of rainfall and temperature), ‘Dega’ (highlands with
somewhat higher rainfall and cool temperature) and ‘Wirch’ (highland very cold, high amount of
rainfall (Table1).

Table 1: Traditional climatic zones and their physical characteristics

20
East Gojjam is one of the productive and economical important crops growing area such as Teff,
Wheat, Barley, Sesame, and Haricot bean etc. The total population of East Gojjam is 2,441,747
of this 286, 561 is urban population (2007 population census).

The farming system in the study area is typical mixed crop and livestock system that is carried
out on subsistence scale. Land and livestock are the bases of livelihood for the people and it is
carried out on subsistence scale (Woldeamlack, 2003). Similar to other peoples in the country the
peasants use the ox-plough farming technique, which they learned from their parents. However,
some of the peasants who have no oxen and have a piece of land give their farmland for megazo
(share cropping) for a farmers who have oxen and economically better than them. Crop
production and livestock rearing contributed to more than half of the livelihoods of the Zone
population. Farmers mostly cultivate varieties of crops such as barely (Hordeum Vulgant), wheat
(Triticum Vulgare), bean (Vicia faba L.), pea (Pisum sativum L.) oats (Avena Sativa) and tef
(Eragrostis tef).
3.2.Data used
3.2.1, Hydro-meteorological datasets

Daily observed meteorological data of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature used for the
analysis obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA), Ethiopia. Among
meteorological stations found overall Abbay river basins; data collection was done for rainfall
stations located nearby and within the study area. But, most of the stations based on data availability,
quality and relatively long year records of datasets and the proximity of the stations have not
complete data to use for the for the area of study. In addition to this, the CORDX data were used for
future flow simulation and for estimating crop water demand (CWD). River discharge data also
required for calibration and validation of the model. The daily data of gauging station for given River
were collected from the Hydrology Department of Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Electricity
(MoWIE), Ethiopia
3.2.2. CORDEX data
During the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC (AR5) the CORDEX data project is formed under the
World Climate Research Program in order to improve the regional climate projections over the entire
world. Now a time, the CORDEX data is applicable in most parts of the world including African
country. For this study, only rainfall and air temperature datasets which are dynamically downscaled

21
from RCM by nesting the RCMs into GCMs under representative concentration pathways were
obtained from IWMI. The data corresponds to temperature and precipitation, which ranges from
1951-2005 as historical periods and between 2006-2100 for the future period corresponds to RCP2.6,
RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The data are derived from HadGEM2-ES Global climate model outputs which
are dynamically downscaled by CORDEX-Africa at a grid resolution of 0.5° by 0.5° (approximately
55km). Three grid points which lie near the selected meteorological station were selected. The
selection criteria were based on the nearness of grid point to the observed meteorological station and
as well as the watershed. These datasets were used for estimating future CWD for maize crop and
also climate change impacts on surface water resources availability.

3.3. Data Analysis

3.3.1. Data quality assessment
The datasets must be completed for intended used. But, before we used this data for any hydrological
models the data must be checked whether it has missing or not. The data missing may occur due to
failures of measuring devices, technical error and shifting the location of stations. Missed climate
data for each station was estimated by using the meteorological climate data nearby or neighboring
stations based on the principles indicated in Subarmanya, (2008). For this study, Normal-Ratio
Method was used to fill the missed rainfall data when normal annual rainfall at the nearby station
differs from the missed station by more than 10%, while Station-Averaged Method was used when
normal annual rainfall of the situation differs by less than 10% from the station with missing data.

𝑃𝑥=𝑁𝑥3[𝑃1𝑁1+𝑃2𝑁2+𝑃3𝑁3]---------------------------------------------------------------3.1
𝑃𝑋=𝑃1+𝑃2+𝑃3𝑛---------------------------------------------------------------------3.2
Where, n is a number of nearby stations; Px rainfall at missing station “X”; P1, P2, P3…Pn… and
N1, N2, N3…..Nn are represents annual total rainfall of respective nearby stations.

3.3.2 Test for consistency of precipitation data

According to IPCC, 2010, Point precipitation data are routinely subject to consistency checking and
adjustment of emerging inconsistencies, a process also known as data homogenization. The double
mass curve is the most popular method of this type. The double mass curve is a plot of the successive
cumulative annual precipitation Σ𝑦𝑖 at the gauge that is checked versus the successive cumulative
annual precipitation Σ𝑥𝑖 for the same period of a control gauge (or the average of several gauges in
the same region). This is a graphical method for identifying and adjusting inconsistency in a station
22
rainfall record by comparing its time trend with those of adjacent stations. This can be tested by
double mass curve analysis in which accumulated rainfall or hydrological data is plotted against the
mean value of all neighborhood stations. If the conditions relevant to the recording of a rain gauge
station have undergone a significant change during the period of rainfall record, inconsistency would
arise in the rainfall data of that station. This inconsistency can be differentiated from the time the
significant change took place. If significant change in the regime of the curve is observed, it should
be corrected by using Equation (3.3).

𝑝𝑥̅=𝑝𝑥∗𝑚𝑚̅̅̅------------------------------------------------------------------------------3.3
Where
𝑝𝑥̅ Correct precipitation x
𝑝𝑥 Original record precipitation at x station
𝑚̅ Corrected slope of double mass curve
M original slope double mass curve
3.3.3. Checking homogeneity of precipitation and flow data
According to McCuen et al. (1998), using non-homogeneous data for climate change impact
assessment it may be increased or decreased the real representation of climate variations. To know
the collected data either it is homogenous or non-homogenous the data should be checked .For this
study, the homogeneity test was evaluated using RAINBOW software by means of frequency
analysis. Since it is one of the methods designed to study the homogeneity of hydro-meteorological
datasets. The restriction of homogeneity assures that the observations are from the same population.
One of the tests of homogeneity is based on the cumulative deviations from the mean using the
following equation
𝑆𝐾=Σ(=𝑋𝑖−𝑋)̅̅̅𝑘𝑖=1…..K=1……, n-----------------------------------------------------3.4
Where; 𝑋i are time series data records from𝑋1, 𝑋2, 𝑋3 ; and ̅𝑋̅ mean of the data. The initial value
of S (k=0) and last value S (k=n) are equal to zero. When plotting the SK’s (sometimes called a
residual mass curve) changes in the mean are easily detected. For a time series data record 𝑋i above
normal the SK increases, while for a record below normal SK decreases
For a homogenous record one may expect that the SK’s fluctuate around zero since there is no
systematic pattern in the deviations of the 𝑋i’s from their mean value. If the cumulative deviation
crosses one of the horizontal lines the homogeneity of the data set is rejected with 90, 95, and 99%

23
probability, respectively. The probabilities of rejecting the homogeneity of the datasets were
evaluated for this study in the Homogeneity statistics menu .

24
Bias correction: According to Graham et al. (2007) and IPCC, (2013) to analysis the climate
impact by using the downscaled regional climate data without any bias correction it may lead to a
variation during simulation of the hydrological model. For this reason, to minimize the systematic
error and to adjust the observed climate input data before using it for any model and future climate
change projection bias correction should be done for each daily precipitation and temperature
datasets which was derived from Africa CORDEX. The bias correction method used for this study is
discussed below:
3.3.4 Nonlinear correction method
According to Leander et al. (2007) based on this method, the correction factors are calculated from
the observed and simulated variables. The main principles of this method to display the mean and
standard deviation of the daily precipitation data becoming equal to those of the observed data
P∗ = aPb--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3.5
Where P* is the corrected value of precipitation, ‘b’ is scaling exponent which is computed
iteratively until the coefficient of variation (CV) of the RCM precipitation dataset matches with that
of the observed datasets. The constant ‘a’ then calculated so that the mean of the transformed
precipitation value is equal to the observed mean (i.e., ‘a’ and ‘b’ are the parameters obtained from
calibration in the baseline period and subsequently applied to the projection period).
For temperature, systematic biases calculated for the period by comparing RCM outputs with the
observations the monthly mean biases correction is made according to (Ho et al., 2012). The bias
correction for temperature differs from that of precipitation. Because bias correction method for
precipitation use power law while this method is not important for temperature as it is approximately
normally distributed (Terink et al., 2010). Applying power law function to correct bias for the
normally distributed dataset is not providing normally distributed datasets. Hence, the bias correction
for temperature involves only shifting and scaling to adjust the mean and variance (Ho et al., 2012)
and can be computed by:

𝑇𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟=𝑇 ̅ 𝑜𝑏𝑠 + 𝛿𝑇𝑜𝑏𝑠 𝛿𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑚 (𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑚−𝑇 ̅ 𝑜𝑏𝑠 ) + (𝑇 ̅ 𝑜𝑏𝑠 −𝑇 ̅ 𝑟𝑐𝑚)

Where, 𝐓corr is the corrected daily temperature; 𝐓rcm is the uncorrected daily temperature from
---------------------------------------3.6

RCM model; 𝐓obs is observed daily temperature; 𝑻 ̅ 𝒐𝒃𝒔 and 𝑻 ̅ 𝒓𝒄𝒎 are mean temperature for
observed and simulated datasets, respectively
3.4. Trend analysis

25
According to Mavromatis and Stathis (2011), a trend refers to an afflation or correlation between
concentration and time or spatial location, but can also refer to any population characteristic
changing in some predictable manner with another variable. Trends take various forms, such as
increasing, decreasing, or periodic. Detecting and assessing temporal and spatial trends is important
for many environmental studies and monitoring programs. For this study, trend analysis was done
using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. This is a statistical test widely used for the analysis of the
trend in climatological and in hydrologic time series (e.g., Yue and Wang, 2004; Mavromatis and
Stathis, 2011; Tabari et al., 2011).
According to Tabari et al. (2011), the MK test has important advantages; it is a non-parametric test
and does not require the data to be normally distributed. And again, the test has low sensitivity to
abrupt breaks due to in homogeneous time series. Any data reported as non-detects are included by
assigning them a common value that is smaller than the smallest measured value in the data set
(Karmeshu, 2012). According to this test, the null hypothesis H0 assumes that there is no trend (the
data is independent and randomly ordered) and this is tested against the alternative hypothesis H1,
which assumes that there is a trend (Onoz and Bayazit, 2012).
The computational procedure for the MK test considers the time series of n data points and Ti and Tj
as two subsets of data where i = 1,2,3,…, n-1 and j = i+1, i+2, i+3, …,n. The data values are
evaluated as an ordered time series. Each data value is compared with all subsequent data values. If a
data value from a later time period is higher than a data value from an earlier time period, the statistic
S is incremented by 1. On the other hand, if the data value from a later time period is lower than
a,data value sampled earlier, S is decremented by 1. The net result of all such increments and
decrements yields the final value of S (Drapela and Drapelova, 2011)
The Mann-Kendall S Statistic is computed as follows
S=ΣΣ𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛(𝑇𝑗−𝑇𝑖)𝑛𝑗=𝑖+1𝑛−1𝑛−1-------------------------------------------------------------- 3.7
Where
𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛(𝑇𝑗−𝑇𝑖={1 𝑖𝑓 𝑇𝑗−𝑇𝑖>00 𝑖𝑓 𝑇𝑗−𝑇𝑖=0−1𝑖𝑓 𝑇𝑗−𝑇𝑖<0-----------------------------3.8
Tj and Ti are the annual values in years j and i, j > i, respectively (Motiee and McBean, 2009).
If n < 10, the value of |S| is compared directly to the theoretical distribution of S derived by Mann
and Kendall. The two tailed test is used. At certain probability level H0 is

rejected in favor of H1 if the absolute value of S equals or exceeds a specified value Sα/2,where Sα/2
is the smallest S which has the probability less than α/2 to appear in case of no trend. A positive

26
(negative) value of S indicates an upward (downward) trend (Drapela and Drapelova, 2011). For n ≥
10, the statistic S is approximately normally distributed with the mean and variance as follows:
E(S) = 0
The variance (σ2) for the S-statistic is defined by:
𝜎2=𝒏(𝒏−𝟏)(𝟐𝒏+𝟓)−Σ𝒕𝒊(𝒊)(𝒊−𝟏)(𝟐𝒊+𝟓)𝟏𝟖 ---------------------------------------------------- 3.9
In which ti denotes the number of ties to extent i. The summation term in the numerator is used only
if the data series contains tied values. The standard test statistic ZS is calculated as follows.
𝑍𝑠={𝑠−1 𝜕 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑆>00 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑆=0𝑆+1𝜕 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑆<0 ------------------------------------------3.10
The test statistic 𝑍𝑠 is used as measure of significance of trend. In fact, this test statistic is used to
test the null hypothesis (e.g., 5% with Z 0.025 = 1.96) then the null hypothesis is invalid implying that
the trend is significant (Motiee and McBean, 2009). Software used for performing the statistical
Mann-Kendall test is Addinsoft’s XLSTAT 2015. The null hypothesis is tested at 95% confidence
level for, ET0 temperature and precipitation data for the three stations. In addition, to compare the
results obtained from the MK test, linear trend lines are plotted for each station using Microsoft
Excel 2013 hypothesis, H0. If |Zs| is greater than Zα/2, where α represents the chosen significance
3.4.1. Identification of change points with Pettitt test
The identification of the change points is one of the most important statistical techniques, which is
used in the flow data set analysis to study the climate change effects. The non-parametric Pettitt test
was applied to identify the change points of the flow series effi-ciently in this paper (Pettitt, 1979).
The Pettitt test con-siders a time series as two samples represented by x1 … xt and xt+1--- xT. For
continuous data the indices V (t) and U (t) can be calculated from the following formula:
𝑈𝑡,𝑇=𝑈𝑡−1,𝑇+𝑉𝑡,𝑇----------------------------------------------------------------------------3.11

𝑉𝑡,𝑇=Σ𝑠𝑔𝑛(𝑥𝑡−𝑥𝑗)𝑇𝑗=1 [𝑠𝑔𝑛(𝑥)={+1 𝑥>00 𝑥=0−1 𝑥<0]----------------- ------3.12

The most significant change point is found where the value is
𝑝(𝑡)=𝑚𝑎𝑥|𝑈𝑡,𝑥|----------------------------------------------------------------------------3.13
And the approximate significance probability, p (t), of a change point can then be calculated from
𝑝(𝑡)=1−𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝑈2𝑡,𝑇𝑇3+𝑇2)----------------------------------------------------------------------3.14
3.5. Climate Change Scenarios and Performance evaluation
Comparison of daynamically downscaled from regional climate model outputs with observed climate
data was evaluated for the study area before using it for any projections. Statistical techniques which
include: Bias, Coefficient of Variation (CV), and Correlation Coefficient (Correl.) were used to

27
evaluate the model simulation outputs of rainfall data for this study. Those statistical technique was
selected because it is the most commonly used criteria for model simulation performance evaluations
including Ethiopia (eg., Haile and Rientjes, 2015) used to evaluate the performance of regional
climate simulations of rainfall over upper Blue Nile River Basin. Bias is used to evaluate the
systematic error of rainfall. The optimal value of PBIAS is 0.0, with low-magnitude values indicating
accurate model simulation. Positive values in-dicate model underestimation bias, and negative values
indicate model overestimation bias (Gupta et al., 1999).
There is no systematic difference in between observed and simulated model outputs as the value of
bias close to zero. But, a large value of bias presents the RCM rainfall systematically differs from the
observed one. The coefficient of Variation (CV) computed for both observed and simulated rainfall
data to evaluate the degree of rainfall variability in replicating the observed rainfall by RCM data
over the basin for this study. According to (NMSA, 1996) classification, when the degree of rainfall
variability is less with (CV <20%), moderately variable (CV ranges between 20 to 30%) and highly
variable (CV >30%) over the provided area. Correlation coefficient (Correl) was used to evaluate the
linear relationships between the observed and model output datasets with a value of one representing
perfect relationships.
PBIAS=(𝑅̅𝑅𝐶𝑀−𝑅̅𝑜𝑏𝑠)𝑅̅𝑅𝐶𝑀∗100-------------------------------------------------------------------3.15
The coefficient of Variation (CV) can be estimated by:
𝐶𝑉=𝛿𝑅𝛿𝑅̅∗100--------------------------------------------------------------------------------3.16
Correlation Coefficient (Correl) can be estimated by:
𝐶orrel=Σ(Robs−R̅obs) (RRCM−R̅RCM)Ni=1√Σ(Robs−R̅obs)2 Σ(RRCM−R̅RCM)2Ni= Ni=1----------------------3.17
Where, 𝑅̅ is average rainfall over the basin; RCM and obs subscripts represents rainfall amount over
the basin either from RCM simulation or observed datasets, respectively; 𝛿 indicates standard
deviation of either the RCM or observed rainfall data; and R represents estimated statistics
individually either for RCM or observed rainfall amount. The dynamically downscaled regional
climate model (HadGEM2-ES) under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6were used to assess future
scenario for this specific study. The analysis was evaluated in two time frames in a time slice of 30
years for both baseline and future periods with respective to RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The
baseline period used for this study was in between 1971-2000 based on WMO recommendation and
the future time frame consists 2020-2049 and 2050-2079, represented as near-term and mid-term for
the analysis of the present study respectively. Whereas RCP4.5 represents medium stabilization

28
scenario and RCP8.5 high baseline scenario without climate change policy and RCP2.6 represents
low emission scenarios. Percent biase can be estimated by:

4. Time Table and Budget Breakdown

4.1. Expected time table/work plan

2017 2018

September

November
December

February
January
October

August
March
April
June

June
May
July
Major activies

Proposal Writing

Literature Review

Preliminary field work/ information survey

Preparing data gathering instrument

Recuiting data collectors and give them
training
Field work/house hold survey and data
coding
Conducting interview and Focus group
discussion

Data entry and cleaning

Analysis of result and first draft of paper

Analysis of results and final draft of paper

Paper submission to Research and
community service V/president
29
 4.2 Budget Breakdown

Personnel
No of
No of daily total
working
participant rate cost
No Enumerators fee days
1 Enumerators training 3 5 97 1455
2 Data collection labor cost 3 25 97 7275
Researcher/supervisor
3 Perdium 4 80 112 35840
Subtotal 1 44570

Travel expenses
Cos per
No of No of two Total
Participant departure Destination
trips participants way cost
1 trip
Debre
Researcher Shebel 10 4 100 4000
2 Markos
Debre
Researcher Sinan 10 4 80 3200
3 Markos
Debre Enebsie
Researcher 10 4 160 6400
4 Markos Sarmidir
Subtotal 2 13600

total
Miscellaneous Expenses Unit Quantity Unit Price
1 Price
Refreshment cost for tea, coffee and bottled
No 90 10 900
2 water during the field day
Communication expense (Mobile
No 500
3 card)
Subtotal 3 1400

30
 Experimental cost
Unit price
Parameter Measurement or collection Method ETB
1 Soil Texture USDA Method 8500
2 Bulk Density of Soil Core Sampler 8500
3 Saturated Extract Salinity (σe) EC Meter 8500
4 Soil Water Content Weight Method 9000
5 PWP and FC Water Content Pressure Plates 9000
6 Meteorological data Meteorological station 10000
7 Crop coefficients FAO 56 8000
8 Crop yield reduction factor FAO 56 7500
9 Saturated water content Saturation Mud Method 5000
10 Root Depth (zr) Field Measurement 5000
Reference Evapotranspiration
11 (ETo) FAO Penman-Monteith 8500
12 Crop grain yield Field Measurement 6000
13 Soil Water Depletion (Dr) Field Measurement 7500
the saturated hydraulic
14 conductivity (Ksat) 6500
volumetric water content at
15 saturation (θsat) 7500
16 field capacity (θFC) 5000
permanent wilting point
17 (θPWP) 5000
Subtotal 4 125000
Budget Summary

1 Personnel 44570
2 Travel expenses 13600
3 Miscellaneous Expenses 1400
4 Experimental cost 125000
Total 184570
Contingency 5% 9228.5
Grand Total 193798.5

31
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