North America Equity Research

22 November 2023

Chevron Corp Not Rated

CVX, CVX US
Model Update Price (21 Nov 23):$144.04

We are updating our model to account for changes post 3Q23 earnings. As we are Integrated Oils
restricted due to J.P. Morgan˖s involvement in the announced acquisition of Hess John M Royall, CFA AC
Corp (HES), we do not include the acquisition in our model and are restricted from
discussing general opinions, price targets, or ratings on CVX or on the transaction.
As such we limit our takeaways to the model update. See details in Table 1 below.
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Alejandra Magana

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Kade C O'Reilly

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Ritik Kumar

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

Adj. EPS ($)
2022A 2023E 2024E
Q1 3.25 3.46A
Q2 6.15 3.20A
Q3 5.88 3.65
Q4 3.88 3.64
FY 19.18 13.90 11.95

Style Exposure

Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.

See page 5 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, users should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

This material was originally prepared by a J.P. Morgan entity (as identified in the material) in connection with its business and is being
provided to you as a courtesy in a modified format only for informational and educational purposes (not investment purposes), and on
a delayed basis.
John M Royall, CFA AC North America Equity Research
22 November 2023 JPMORGAN

Price Performance Performance Drivers

YTD 1m 3m 12m
Abs -19.8% -13.7% -10.2% -20.5%
Rel -38.0% -21.1% -13.3% -35.4%

Company Data
Shares O/S (mn) 1,876
52-week range ($) 187.81-140.74
Market cap ($ mn) 270,148.20
Exchange rate 1.00
Free float(%) 94.1%
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 9.06
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 1,424.9
Volatility (90 Day) 24
Index S&P 500
BBG BUY|HOLD|SELL 22|8|0

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

$ in millions FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Financial Estimates
Revenue 246,252 207,955 206,777 229,759
Adj. EBITDA 64,559 52,183 47,440 52,942
Adj. EBIT 48,240 36,718 31,425 36,927
Adj. net income 37,211 26,210 21,845 25,586
Adj. EPS 19.18 13.90 11.95 14.71
BBG EPS 19.09 13.59 14.38 14.92
Cashflow from operations 49,602 35,591 36,960 40,701
FCFF 37,998 19,781 22,836 25,977
Margins and Growth
Revenue growth 51.6% (15.6%) (0.6%) 11.1%
EBITDA margin 26.2% 25.1% 22.9% 23.0%
EBITDA growth 65.2% (19.2%) (9.1%) 11.6%
EBIT margin 19.6% 17.7% 15.2% 16.1%
Net margin 15.1% 12.6% 10.6% 11.1%
Adj. EPS growth 131.4% (27.5%) (14.1%) 23.1%
Ratios
Adj. tax rate 28.3% 29.8% 32.0% 32.0%
Interest cover 125.1 89.2 67.8 75.6
Net debt/Equity 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Net debt/EBITDA 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4
ROCE 19.6% 14.2% 11.8% 13.9%
ROE 24.9% 16.5% 13.7% 16.1%
Valuation
FCFF yield 13.6% 7.3% 8.7% 10.4%
Dividend yield 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.5%
EV/Revenue 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.4
EV/EBITDA 4.9 6.2 7.0 6.3
Adj. P/E 7.5 10.4 12.1 9.8

Source: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables. Note: Price history may not be
complete or exact.

2
This material was originally prepared by a J.P. Morgan entity (as identified in the material) in connection with its business and is being
provided to you as a courtesy in a modified format only for informational and educational purposes (not investment purposes), and on
a delayed basis.
John M Royall, CFA AC North America Equity Research
22 November 2023 JPMORGAN

Table 1: CVX Model Summary

$ in mm, except where noted
SUMMARY FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Commodity Prices
Brent ($/bbl) 54.50 70.55 64.62 42.74 70.45 101.22 81.20 78.30 86.70 90.00 84.05 85.00 80.00
Henry Hub ($/mcf) 3.02 3.07 2.53 2.13 3.72 6.54 2.77 2.32 2.66 3.30 2.76 3.50 4.00
Income Statement
Upstream Net Income - US 435 3,948 3,076 (278) 6,719 13,821 1,781 1,640 2,074 2,624 8,119 12,048 11,987
Upstream Net Income - Int'l 4,205 10,958 8,470 1,815 8,499 18,597 3,380 3,296 3,681 3,412 11,921 9,845 9,564
Downstream Net Income - US 1,778 2,103 1,559 (491) 2,499 5,394 977 1,081 1,376 660 4,094 2,860 2,993
Downstream Net Income - Int'l 1,601 1,345 922 678 525 2,526 823 426 307 335 1,845 2,451 2,447
Corporate (1,439) (2,290) (2,443) (2,737) (2,328) (2,050) (387) (433) (912) (530) (1,853) (2,120) (2,100)
Total Net Income 6,580 16,064 11,584 (1,013) 15,914 38,288 6,574 6,010 6,526 6,500 24,125 25,084 24,891
Share Count (mm) 1,898 1,914 1,892 1,871 1,920 1,940 1,901 1,876 1,877 1,859 1,878 1,798 1,694
EPS 3.47 8.39 6.12 (0.54) 8.29 19.73 3.46 3.20 3.48 3.50 12.85 13.95 14.70
Dividends per Share 4.32 4.48 4.76 5.16 5.31 5.68 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 6.04 6.16 6.42
Cash Flows
Cash flow from operations 20,515 30,618 27,314 10,577 29,187 49,602 7,205 6,297 9,673 11,918 35,093 39,199 39,506
Capex (13,404) (13,792) (14,116) (8,922) (8,056) (11,974) (3,038) (3,757) (4,673) (4,127) (15,595) (15,000) (15,000)
Free cash flow 7,111 16,826 13,198 1,655 21,131 37,628 4,167 2,540 5,000 7,791 19,498 24,199 24,506
Asset sales 5,247 2,392 2,951 2,968 1,791 2,635 219 (310) 175 0 84 0 0
Other CFI (44) (890) (293) (1,011) 400 (2,769) 12 123 88 0 223 0 0
Share Repurchases (Net of Issuance) 1,117 (604) (2,935) (1,531) 38 (5,417) (3,607) (4,340) (3,334) (2,800) (14,081) (16,700) (16,700)
Dividends (8,132) (8,502) (8,959) (9,651) (10,179) (10,968) (2,857) (2,818) (2,852) (2,807) (11,334) (11,077) (10,872)
Total return of capital (7,015) (9,106) (11,894) (11,182) (10,141) (16,385) (6,464) (7,158) (6,186) (5,607) (25,415) (27,777) (27,572)
Balance Sheet
Net debt 33,941 24,114 21,224 38,688 25,694 5,438 7,408 11,904 14,621 12,462 12,462 17,190 20,356
Shareholders' equity 148,124 154,554 144,213 131,688 139,067 159,282 159,449 158,325 165,265 166,133 166,133 169,874 167,093
Gross debt to capital 21% 18% 16% 25% 18% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
Net debt to capital 19% 13% 13% 23% 16% 3% 4% 7% 8% 7% 7% 9% 11%
Net debt to CFO 1.7x 0.8x 0.8x 3.2x 0.8x 0.1x 0.2x 0.3x 0.4x 0.3x 0.3x 0.4x 0.5x
OPERATING PROFILE
Upstream
Production by Region (kboed)
US 681 790 928 1,058 1,140 1,181 1,167 1,219 1,407 1,521 1,329 1,620 1,747
Angola 113 107 97 89 79 70 67 70 66 66 67 58 52
Nigeria 250 239 209 183 165 151 150 133 159 158 150 135 129
Indonesia 164 132 110 138 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Europe 99 85 67 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kazakhstan/Eurasia 440 419 450 435 379 396 409 414 372 400 399 379 491
Australia gas 229 384 410 399 406 441 450 439 446 463 449 463 471
South America 112 92 81 49 36 41 43 43 42 42 43 57 65
NBL Int'l 19 90 100 100 92 103 73 92 88 100
Other 642 683 706 699 723 620 593 550 552 571 566 546 536
International 2,048 2,140 2,130 2,025 1,959 1,819 1,812 1,740 1,739 1,773 1,766 1,724 1,844
Worldwide 2,728 2,930 3,058 3,083 3,099 3,000 2,979 2,959 3,146 3,293 3,094 3,344 3,590
Downstream
Throughput (kbpd) 1,662 1,611 1,564 1,377 1,479 1,504 1,518 1,585 1,586 1,647 1,584 1,647 1,647
Capacity Utilization 96% 99% 90% 76% 82% 85% 85% 89% 89% 93% 89% 93% 93%
Net Margin/bbl (Global) 5.57 5.86 4.35 0.37 5.60 14.43 13.04 10.42 11.37 6.57 10.27 8.81 9.05

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

3
This material was originally prepared by a J.P. Morgan entity (as identified in the material) in connection with its business and is being
provided to you as a courtesy in a modified format only for informational and educational purposes (not investment purposes), and on
a delayed basis.
John M Royall, CFA AC North America Equity Research
22 November 2023 JPMORGAN

Chevron Corp: Summary of Financials

Income Statement - Annual FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E Income Statement - Quarterly 1Q23A 2Q23A 3Q23E 4Q23E
Revenue 162,465 246,252 207,955 206,777 229,759 Revenue 50,793A 48,896A 52,884 55,383
SG&A 0 0 0 0 0 SG&A 0A 0A 0 0
Adj. EBITDAX 39,623 65,533 52,942 48,240 53,742 Adj. EBITDAX 12,797A 11,038A 14,174 14,174
Exploration expense (549) (974) (759) (800) (800) Exploration expense (190)A (169)A (200) (200)
Adj. EBITDA 39,074 64,559 52,183 47,440 52,942 Adj. EBITDA 12,797A 11,038A 14,174 14,174
D&A (17,925) (16,319) (15,465) (16,015) (16,015) D&A (3,526)A (3,521)A (4,209) (4,209)
Adj. EBIT 21,149 48,240 36,718 31,425 36,927 Adj. EBIT 9,271A 7,517A 9,965 9,965
Net Interest (712) (516) (585) (700) (700) Net Interest (115)A (120)A (175) (175)
Adj. PBT 21,639 49,674 37,533 32,125 37,627 PBT 9,519A 7,837A 10,088 10,089
Tax (5,950) (14,066) (11,200) (10,280) (12,041) Tax (2,914)A (1,829)A (3,228) (3,228)
Minority Interest (64) (143) (29) 0 0 Minority Interest (31)A 2A 0 0
Adj. Net Income 15,914 37,211 26,210 21,845 25,586 Adj. Net Income 6,574A 6,010A 6,860 6,860
Reported EPS 8.14 18.28 13.95 11.95 14.71 Reported EPS 3.46A 3.20A 3.65 3.64
Adj. EPS 8.29 19.18 13.90 11.95 14.71 Adj. EPS 3.46A 3.20A 3.65 3.64
DPS 5.31 5.68 6.04 6.16 6.42 DPS 1.51A 1.51A 1.51 1.51
Payout ratio 65.3% 31.1% 43.3% 51.6% 43.7% Payout ratio 43.7%A 47.1%A 41.4% 41.5%
Shares outstanding 1,920 1,940 1,885 1,828 1,740 Shares outstanding 1,901A 1,876A 1,881 1,883
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E Ratio Analysis FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Cash and cash equivalents 5,675 17,901 9,565 3,863 1,394 ROE 11.8% 24.9% 16.5% 13.7% 16.1%
Accounts receivable 18,419 20,456 19,285 19,285 19,285 ROA 6.6% 15.0% 10.3% 8.7% 10.2%
Inventories 6,305 8,247 8,198 8,198 8,198 ROCE 8.9% 19.6% 14.2% 11.8% 13.9%
Other current assets 3,339 3,739 4,697 4,697 4,697 Net debt/equity 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Current assets 33,738 50,343 41,745 36,043 33,574 Net debt/capital 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
PP&E 146,961 143,591 143,575 149,344 148,129 Interest cover (x) 54.9 125.1 89.2 67.8 75.6
LT investments - - - - -
Other non current assets 58,836 63,775 66,821 66,821 66,821 P/E (x) 17.4 7.5 10.4 12.1 9.8
Total assets 239,535 257,709 252,141 252,208 248,524 P/OCF 9.5 5.6 7.6 7.1 6.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.6 4.9 6.2 7.0 6.3
Short term borrowings 256 1,964 1,269 1,269 1,269 EV/DACF 11.3 6.3 9.0 8.8 8.1
Payables 16,454 18,955 18,656 18,656 18,656 EV/EBITDAX (x) 8.5 4.8 6.1 6.8 6.2
Other short term liabilities 10,081 13,289 9,922 9,922 9,922 Dividend yield 3.7% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.5%
Current liabilities 26,791 34,208 29,847 29,847 29,847
Long-term debt 31,113 21,375 20,245 21,295 21,295 Tax rate 27.5% 28.3% 29.8% 32.0% 32.0%
Other long term liabilities 41,691 41,884 41,739 40,439 39,139
Total liabilities 99,595 97,467 91,831 91,581 90,281 Sector data FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Shareholders' equity 139,067 159,282 159,337 159,654 157,270 Natural gas price - $/mcf - - - - -
Minority interests 873 960 973 973 973 Crude oil (WTI) -$/bbl - - - - -
Total liabilities & equity 239,535 257,709 252,141 252,208 248,524 Daily production (mboed) 3,099 3,000 3,096 3,489 3,896
BVPS 72.42 82.09 84.53 87.33 90.39
y/y Growth 2.9% 13.4% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% Refining throughput (mbpd) - - - - -
Net debt/(cash) 25,694 5,438 11,949 18,701 21,170 Utilization rate - - - - -
EBITDAX margin 24.4% 26.6% 25.5% 23.3% 23.4%
CFFO ex WC - - - - -
Cash flow from operating activities 29,187 49,602 35,591 36,960 40,701
CFFO ex WC/share - - - - -
o/w Depreciation & amortization 17,925 16,319 15,465 16,015 16,015
o/w Changes in working capital (1,361) 2,125 (3,948) 0 0
Cash flow from investing activities (5,865) (12,108) (16,176) (14,600) (15,200)
o/w Capital expenditure (8,056) (11,974) (16,220) (14,600) (15,200)
as % of sales 5.0% 4.9% 7.8% 7.1% 6.6%
Cash flow from financing activities (23,113) (24,978) (28,030) (28,061) (27,971)
o/w Dividends paid (10,179) (10,968) (11,359) (11,261) (11,171)
o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) - - - - -
Net change in cash 58 12,326 (8,766) (5,702) (2,469)
Adj. Free cash flow to firm 21,647 37,998 19,781 22,836 25,977
y/y Growth 756.0% 75.5% (47.9%) 15.4% 13.8%
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Note: $ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which

4
This material was originally prepared by a J.P. Morgan entity (as identified in the material) in connection with its business and is being
provided to you as a courtesy in a modified format only for informational and educational purposes (not investment purposes), and on
a delayed basis.
John M Royall, CFA AC North America Equity Research
22 November 2023 JPMORGAN

Analyst Certification: The Research Analyst(s) denoted by an “AC˙ on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple Research Analysts
are primarily responsible for this report, the Research Analyst denoted by an “AC˙ on the cover or within the document individually certifies,
with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report
accurately reflect the Research Analyst˖s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the
Research Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the
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requirements, that the Research Analyst˖s analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect the Research Analyst˖s own opinion,
without undue influence or intervention.
All authors named within this report are Research Analysts who produce independent research unless otherwise specified. In Europe, Sector
Specialists (Sales and Trading) may be shown on this report as contacts but are not authors of the report or part of the Research Department.
Important Disclosures

Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of/related to
Chevron Corp.
Analyst Position: An analyst on the Equity or Credit coverage team, non-fundamental analyst who may produce trade recommendations, or a
member of their respective household(s) has a financial interest in the debt or equity securities of Chevron Corp.
Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: Chevron Corp.
Client/Investment Banking: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as investment banking
clients: Chevron Corp.
Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies)
as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Chevron Corp.
Client/Non-Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients, and the
services provided were non-securities-related: Chevron Corp.
Investment Banking Compensation Received: J.P. Morgan has received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking services
from Chevron Corp.
Potential Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking
services in the next three months from Chevron Corp.
Non-Investment Banking Compensation Received: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services
other than investment banking from Chevron Corp.
Debt Position: J.P. Morgan may hold a position in the debt securities of Chevron Corp, if any.
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and/or its affiliates is acting as a financial advisor to Hess Corp in connection with the acquisition of Hess Corp by
Chevron Corporation as announced on 10/23/23. The transaction is subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. This research report and the
information contained herein is not intended to provide voting advice, serve as an endorsement of the proposed transaction or result in
procurement, withholding or revocation of a proxy or any other action by a security holder.
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and/or its affiliates is acting as a financial advisor to Hess Corp in connection with the acquisition of Hess Corp by
Chevron Corporation as announced on 10/23/23. The transaction is subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. This research report and the
information contained herein is not intended to provide voting advice, serve as an endorsement of the proposed transaction or result in
procurement, withholding or revocation of a proxy or any other action by a security holder.

Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables, are available
for compendium reports and all J.P. Morgan–covered companies, and certain non-covered companies, by calling
1-800-477-0406 with your request.

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John M Royall, CFA AC North America Equity Research
22 November 2023 JPMORGAN

Date Rating Price ($) Price Target

($)
10-Dec-20 OW 90.44 111
29-Jan-21 OW 89.02 112
08-Mar-21 OW 109.00 129
09-Mar-21 OW 109.75 131
08-Jun-21 OW 107.75 132
01-Jul-21 OW 104.74 128
15-Sep-21 N 96.20 111
29-Oct-21 N 113.12 129
09-Dec-21 N 118.45 142
28-Jan-22 N 135.37 138
01-Mar-22 N 144.00 140
11-Mar-22 UW 170.82 169
17-May-22 UW 173.01 170
29-Sep-22 UW 145.78 145
31-Oct-22 UW 179.98 143
05-Dec-22 UW 181.03 161
31-May-23 N 153.12 170
04-Oct-23 N 166.93 183
23-Oct-23 NR 166.83 --

The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average
total return of the stocks in the analyst˖s (or the analyst˖s team˖s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this
stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst˖s (or the analyst˖s team˖s) coverage universe.] Underweight
[Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst˖s (or the
analyst˖s team˖s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock
because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the
price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia and ex-India)
and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock˖s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country
market index, not to those analysts˖ coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying
analyst˖s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan˖s research website.
Coverage Universe: Royall, John M: Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATDb.TO), CVR Energy (CVI), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO),
Casey's General Stores (CASY), Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO), Chevron Corp (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR),
Delek Holdings (DK), Denbury (DEN), Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), HF Sinclair (DINO), Imperial Oil (IMO.TO), MEG Energy (MEG.TO),
Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Murphy USA (MUSA), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), PBF Energy (PBF), Par Pacific (PARR), Parkland Corp
(PKI.TO), Phillips 66 (PSX), Suncor Energy (SU.TO), Sunoco L.P. (SUN), Valero Energy (VLO)

J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of October 07, 2023

Overweight Neutral Underweight
(buy) (hold) (sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage* 47% 39% 14%
IB clients** 47% 45% 33%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage* 46% 41% 13%
IB clients** 65% 64% 51%

*Please note that the percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.
**Percentage of subject companies within each of the "buy," "hold" and "sell" categories for which J.P. Morgan has provided
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
For purposes of FINRA ratings distribution rules only, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls
into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation
are not included in the table above. This information is current as of the end of the most recent calendar quarter.
Equity Valuation and Risks: For valuation methodology and risks associated with covered companies or price targets for covered
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models used, please see the Summary of Financials in company-specific research reports and the Company Tearsheets, which are
available to download on the company pages of our client website. This report also sets out within it the material underlying
assumptions used
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John M Royall, CFA AC North America Equity Research
22 November 2023 JPMORGAN

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John M Royall, CFA AC North America Equity Research
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