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Truflation Inflation Index Methodology

Truflation has developed a unique infrastructure to provide unbiased financial data and real-time inflation indexes, utilizing over 13 million data points from 30+ sources. Their methodology involves a seven-step process to ensure accurate household expenditure representation and data normalization, enabling informed decision-making. This innovative approach addresses the shortcomings of traditional inflation metrics, offering a more timely and transparent alternative for individuals and businesses.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
84 views20 pages

Truflation Inflation Index Methodology

Truflation has developed a unique infrastructure to provide unbiased financial data and real-time inflation indexes, utilizing over 13 million data points from 30+ sources. Their methodology involves a seven-step process to ensure accurate household expenditure representation and data normalization, enabling informed decision-making. This innovative approach addresses the shortcomings of traditional inflation metrics, offering a more timely and transparent alternative for individuals and businesses.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Truflation: US Methodology

Executive Summary
Sustainable economic growth can only come from a common understanding of the facts used as
a basis for decision-making. To meet this need, Truflation built the first-of-its-kind infrastructure
to provide unbiased financial data to ensure faster, more intelligent decision-making.

Truflation’s indexes are based on market price data collected from 30+ different data sources,
comprising 13+ million data points to deliver essential business intelligence around inflation and
its underlying components. We use this data to provide daily transparent real-time inflation
indexes and other economic metrics to financial products and applications through the
Truflation Index, inflation drivers, marketplace, dashboard, and APIs.

Content
Executive Summary 1
Content 2
Truflation Background 3
Truflation Indexes 5
Truflation Methodology 6
Step 1 - Household expenditure establishment 6
Step 2 - Data sources 9
Step 3 - Ingesting data 10
Step 4 - Normalization / Indexing 12
Step 5 - Categorization / Relative weights 13
Step 6 - Aggregated Indexes 15
Step 7 - Deliverables 16
Custom Indexes for Specific Needs 17
Conclusion 17
Brief outline of Truflation’s other tools and services 18
Truflation Inflation Drivers 18
Truflation Dashboard 19
Truflation Personal Inflation Calculator 19
Truflation Forecasting 19
Truflation RWA Oracle 19
Truflation Background
Today, none of the traditional economic metrics make sense. This has been true for years, but a
combination of inflationary pressures, monetary policy, world events, increased money supply,
and shifting global supply chains have pushed us to an inevitable tipping point; yet we persist
with metrics of the past.

The frameworks for official financial indexes, including inflation figures in the United States and
elsewhere in the world, were launched over a century ago and since then the inflation
framework has only undergone a few updates of substance. The last meaningful update to the
inflation framework in the U.S. was in 1999, over 20 years ago. It came in a world where:

● Electric cars were only a distant twinkle in the eyes of futurists.


● iPhones and Facebook didn’t exist.
● Netflix was a mail-based DVD rental company.
● Google was brand new and wouldn’t gain meaningful traction for another five years.
● E-commerce the US represented just $27 billion in sales… very much in its infancy
compared to 2021 when revenue exceeded $870 billion1.

However, these aging metrics have been used by individuals, businesses, academics, and
government-related organizations in the absence of a better alternative.

So, how could such an obsolete, outdated inflation measurement be fit for purpose in today’s
world? It simply isn’t — and this consequently makes it difficult to trust and use these numbers
in a world that has undergone such change.

Fortunately, the arrival of new consumer and spending knowledge data sets, alongside new
technological capabilities, can now be leveraged to meet the modern demands of businesses.
Truflation has taken world-class data assets, put them in a secure environment and created the
only verifiable daily inflation indexes in the world.

Truflation validates, harmonizes, and calculates outputs using open-source algorithms. Our
transparent methodologies are built and updated by our community.

The new metrics enable individuals, investors, businesses and institutions to make more
informed decisions based on unbiased and transparent information. Truflation delivers a
financial information platform that seamlessly plugs directly into any workstream, in any
industry and geography.

1
https://www.statista.com/statistics/185283/total-and-e-commerce-us-retail-trade-sales-since-2000/

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It is a foundational growth engine that enables developers and entrepreneurs to build better
products faster.

The Truflation assets are our products, tools and services:

1. Indexes
a. Truflation CPI Indexes (UK & US)
b. Truflation Inflation Drivers
c. TruData Defi Indexes
2. Tools
a. Truflation Dashboard
b. Truflation Personal Inflation Calculator
c. Truflation Forecasting
3. Services
a. RWA Oracle

For the purpose of this document, we will be focused on the methodology for developing the
Truflation CPI Indexes. Should you wish to receive any additional information on the products,
tools and services outlined above, see the end of this document for a brief summary or
alternatively, contact us.

Truflation Indexes
Truflation provides a set of independent inflation indexes drawing on as many as 30+ data
sources and 13+ million prices of goods and services at a country level. These indexes are
released daily, making them one of the world's most up-to-date and comprehensive inflation
measures.

Truflation released the first inflation index for the U.S. in December 2021. A further 12
category-level inflation indexes and sub-category inflation indexes followed. Since then, similar
data sets have been released in the United Kingdom, with more countries coming online soon.

The inspiration for this new approach to inflation measurement came from a growing
frustration with the relevance and timeliness of existing inflation numbers, particularly those
released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The methodologies of the BLS have not kept pace with the times we live in. The U.S. Consumer
Price Index (CPI) is still only based on pricing data for 80,000 products. The CPI basket of goods
and services is based on manual, often physical surveys with delayed collection cycles, and
makes limited use of digital data collection techniques. The risk of human error and survey bias

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is significant. Further bias is introduced to the numbers because government departments
producing inflation metrics typically depend on departmental budget allocations to support
their work.

Until now, independent measures of inflation have been challenging to develop due to
regulatory influences and the heavy capital requirements to capture more relevant data sets.
Additionally, those who did develop competing inflation metrics did so out of a commercial or
political bias. The numbers tended to reflect those biases, and transparency was lacking.

Researchers, economists, and think tanks have been attempting to bring greater transparency
to the process for decades. However, those goals have competed with the agendas of
government departments producing the metrics, which are dependent on the departmental
budgets that support their work.

Truflation has overcome these challenges to diversify and decentralize access to all layers of the
information collected and the calculations. It has no agenda other than providing the most
complete, timely, and unbiased inflation data.

Truflation’s outputs stand apart for the following reasons:


● Truflation makes the indexes available 30 times faster than current measurement tools
and reports the indexes daily.
● Truflation licenses robust data from 30+ data providers and aggregators, resulting in
multiple data sources with different methodologies covering each category, creating a
more representative and balanced measurement tool.
● Truflation leverages census-level data, enabling access to more than 13 million data
points compared to the traditional index, which only includes ~80,000.
● Truflation uses open-source algorithms to make the data more transparent. These
metrics deliver the unfiltered truth, not what is politically expedient.

Truflation Methodology
Truflation has a seven-step process for establishing a CPI index for modern needs. This approach
requires the implementation of guardrails to ensure changes in the indexes are not the result of
factors outside the core data collected. A consistent, balanced approach allows Truflation to
aggregate multiple data sources into one number that represents the change in consumer
prices.

The steps to achieve this are outlined below:

1. Household expenditure establishment

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2. Data Sources
3. Ingestion of data
4. Normalization / Indexing
5. Categorization / Relative weighting
6. Aggregation of indexes
7. Data deliverables

Step 1 - Household expenditure establishment


Prior to setting up the Truflation US CPI index, one needs to understand the structure of the
population and establish how households are spending. Up-to-date information about the
population structure is necessary to ensure accurate representation and weighting for each
household spending category. To achieve this, it is important to understand:
● What the households spend their money on and the detailed allocation of the
household basket of goods and services, along with key definitions.
● Determine the importance (weighting) of each expenditure category to the household.
Establish ways to cross-reference the data and then leverage this over time for
forecasting capabilities.

Well-defined expenditure categories are a prerequisite to understanding expenditure baselines.


The definitions should:

● be unambiguous to assure proper classification of household expenditures of goods and


services.
● consider the expenditure of goods and services of the given country.
● enable the validation of the expenditure categories with alternative data sets.

Table 1.0 highlights the 12 expenditure categories and their respective definitions that reflect
the diversified set of products and services with which households engage.

Table 1.0 – Truflation 12 categories and their definitions


Expenditure Category Definition
Categories
Food & non-alcoholic 1. Food at home (includes cereals & bakery products, meat, poultry, fish, eggs, dairy
beverages products, fruits & vegetables, and other food at home)
2. Food away from home.
Alcohol & tobacco 1. Alcoholic beverages (beer, wine, and spirits)
2. Tobacco products (all tobacco products and smoking supplies)
Clothing & footwear 1. Clothes
2. Footwear
3. Other apparel products and services

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Housing 1. Owned dwellings (includes mortgages, property taxes, maintenance repairs,
insurance, and other household expenses)
2. Rented dwellings
3. Other lodging
Utilities 1. Natural gas
2. Electricity
3. Fuel oil and other fuels
4. Water and other public services
Household durables 1. Household operations (includes personal services and other household expenses)
and daily use items 2. Housekeeping supplies (includes laundry / cleaning supplies, other household
products, and postage and stationery)
3. Household furnishings and equipment (includes household textiles, furniture,
floor coverings, major appliances, small appliances, and miscellaneous household
equipment)
Health 1. Health insurance
2. Medical services
3. Drugs
4. Medical supplies
Transport 1. Vehicle purchases (includes new cars and trucks, used cars and trucks, and other
vehicles)
2. Gasoline, other fuels, and motor oil
3. Other vehicle expenses (includes finance charges, maintenance and repairs,
vehicle leases, rentals licenses and other charges, and vehicle insurance)
4. Public and other transportation
Communications 1. Residential phone services, VOIP, and phone cards
2. Cellular phone services
Recreation and 1. Fees and admissions
culture 2. Audio and visual equipment and services
3. Pets, toys, hobbies, and playground equipment
4. Other entertainment supplies and services
Education 1. Education
2. Reading
Other 1. Personal care products and services
2. Miscellaneous expenses

Each of the 12 categories represents a percentage of total household expenditure, and these
category definitions are consistent for all markets covered by Truflation to ensure the indexes
are scalable and comparable across markets. However, the relative importance of each
category does vary by market.

Each category's relative importance is achieved by taking multiple sources and triangulating the
impact. Data sources used for the Truflation Index include the Truflation Personal Inflation
Calculator, Plaid, Census and Mini Census (where available), Bureau of Labor Statistics and other

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household establishment expenditure surveys used to create the consumer expenditure data.
These data sources are then validated against assets from Truflation's data providers and other
third-party sources (e.g. food spending with NielsenIQ, Walmart, etc.; mortgage spending with
financial institution data, etc.) Combining these data sources and aligning the different
methodologies allows Truflation to produce more reliable, unbiased data.

The relative importance / weightings are updated annually and implemented in February of
each year using the previous year’s data to reflect the changing consumer expenditure
behaviors. In Graph 1.0 below, the relative importance of each of the 12 product categories for
the Truflation US Index can be seen.

Graph 1.0 – Truflation US category importance for 2023

Step 2 - Data sources


Truflation works with a wide variety of data partners to ensure a diverse data pool and to
establish the most accurate average prices in each category and sub-category. This approach
minimizes the potential for error and avoids having any single point of failure.

Truflation licenses data from commercial and public data sources, data aggregators and
research institutes. The Truflation US Index licenses data from 30+ data providers and
aggregators. Each of these data partnerships is tied to census-level data, meaning Truflation is
accessing more than 13 million price points of goods and services compared to the traditional
index, which includes only 80,000 data points.

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The list of data providers is also dynamic. Truflation regularly adds data partners to the index. At
present, the list of data providers includes (not exhaustive): NielsenIQ, GfK, Amazon, Big Mac
Index, Walmart, Zillow, Trulia, Penn State University, MRI (Marginal Rent Inflation) Index, Real
Capital Analytics, Yahoo, Energy Information Administration, OPIS, AAA Gas prices, JD Powers,
CarGurus, Numbeo, Statista, CoreLogic, Kantar, Trivago, Hilton, Hyatt, etc.

For every data partner that is ingested into Truflation, an audit process is conducted that
includes:

● Documentation of the methodology.


● Determining the representation of the data i.e. geographical coverage, representation of
the US population, market share estimate that correlates back to our category &
sub-category definitions.
● Understand and outline the quality control procedures the data partners undertake,
including their validation systems.
● Administrative & legal document sign-off, which is necessary to ensure Truflation has the
legal representation to repurpose the data and add it to other data sources to create the
index.

The new data provider will remain in a sandbox until this is completed and they are certified.

Step 3 - Ingesting data


Each data partner updates data at different intervals, be it daily, weekly or monthly, which
accordingly updates the Truflation index at the same interval. The net result is that Truflation
makes its indexes available 30 times faster than current measurement tools, which only report
monthly and with an average 13-day delay. Truflation refreshes the indexes daily.

New data from each source is gathered daily at 10:30 PM Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). All
the collected historical pricing data points are loaded directly into our source database. Each
provider's data is then added into a separate database table.

Every time new data is ingested and collected, necessary quality control procedures must be
undertaken daily. One of the most critical factors impacting quality is the accuracy and
representation of the data sources themselves. Once data is updated in the system, and
without any manipulation of the data, Truflation undertakes a QC process that includes:

● Historical data comparison: Compare the most recently received data with previous data
in the database from the same source to assess consistency. If there are discrepancies a
red flag is raised.
● Data presence: Review the most recent data to ensure at least 13 consecutive months of
data are available from that source to obtain year-over-year comparisons. If this is not

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present, then a red flag is raised (this also depends on daily / weekly / monthly data
deliverables). If Truflation receives monthly data, the monthly number from the last
month will be carried forward every day until the new data is received and the current
month is replaced e.g. September data is brought forward into October until Truflation
receives the October data in early November, which therefore replaces the old October
data.
● Current data comparison: Analyze the most recent data input and ensure it is not the
same as the previously logged data or establish that there is no missing data. If the latest
data is no different than the latest data in the Truflation database or there is no data at
all, then a red flag is raised (of course, this is dependent on the frequency of updates).
● Data variation: if the most recent data differs by more than 5%, either positively or
negatively, from the previous data set from the same source then a red flag is raised and
it needs to be checked. If no red flag is raised, then the final data is cleared to the next
stage.

If the process of dissecting and verifying the red-flagged data takes more than one day, then the
most recent data in the Truflation database from that source is repeated and injected as interim
data. This process is to be continued until we have the new data green-flagged and cleared, at
which point the new/actual data replaces the interim data and proceeds to the calculation
stage.

For each new data provider added into the system, we need to outline the amount of historical
data that we receive. If it doesn’t go back to January 1, 2010, the latest historical data is
backcasted using the existing data that we have for this category/sub-category.

As an example, if we are adding a new data source to the Cereals sub-category of Food at Home
and the new data set only has data going back to January 1, 2015, we would follow the process
outlined below:

● We would extract the current Cereals index trends from January 1, 2015 and compare
the new data set with the existing data to determine the correlation index between
these two data sets.
● Then we extract the existing Cereals data from the January 1, 2010 to January 31, 2014
and apply the correlation index to that data, which generates the new index from
January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2014.
● The new data is then checked and ingested into the system.

When we receive and verify data from new data partners, this new data is added into
Truflation’s database, and an additional row with a date stamp becomes the new data set for
the calculation.

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Apart from updating data with new data providers, there are other factors that we must take
into account that influence the data trends. There are three main reasons for any changes in
the data that Truflation represents:

● New/old data sets are added/removed to/from the Truflation indexes on a monthly basis
during our index updates
● Existing data providers upgrade/improve their data for a number of reasons
● Any updates in Truflation’s calculation model due to raw data additions/removal or
updates to the relative importance of category weightings etc.

All these factors can change the trending of the Truflation indexes. The data is only updated
during our monthly updates, which occur on the 15th of every month. If there is an update to
be included in the current month, we conduct a parallel run to understand the impact on the
the indexes, trend lines and correlations. Comparing the results from a parallel run consists of
the following actions:

● Explain the differences in the data if we find differences for any of the key metrics.
● Ensure each component is thoroughly checked using the right resources and methods.
● Log the impact of the change for each data set into Truflation’s quality control logbook.

Truflation’s management of historical data ensures is that our source data tables are immutable.
At the time of the data source ingestion, all new data points are time-stamped and this source
data remains unchanged. This data can only be changed with the addition of updated / new
data points and our Truflation Oracle ensures that the historical data reflects the most current
and comprehensive information about inflation. Equally, all our calculations are time-stamped,
which makes it possible for us to handle updated data in a customizable way for clients with
bespoke needs. We provide information on the impact of the new data to ensure full
transparency.

Once the data has undergone the quality control (QC) process it is ready to progress to the
calculation phase. Once the data proceeds to this stage, it undergoes a 24-hour hold period and
is then locked until 00:00 UTC that day. For example, data that is added at 06:30 UTC and 22:50
UTC on the 4th of the month will be held until 00:00 UTC on the 6th.

The delay in running the algorithm accommodates for any red flag resolution, if required. If
there are no red flags,the data simply clears this automated process. The delay period is also
designed to ensure that the activation time is independent of the time at which the data is
fetched to allow for data download issues. For example, if during QC it is found that there is a
download issue, the data can be re-fetched without affecting the time at which the data is
activated. Truflation still reports the data with a delay. The calculation algorithm is deployed at
the end of the delay window, and the new Truflation index for that day is created and ready for

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reporting. This means that on July 23, 2022, we will release the Truflation index from July 22,
2022, and so on.

Step 4 - Normalization / Indexing


At this point, each partner's data goes through a calculation where the raw data is converted
into an index / normalized as a price index. This process is repeated for each data source.

The indexing calculation is as follows:

● Base Value: This is selected by first looking for a data point for 2010-01-01. If there is no
value on that date, the system will find the first value before that date (for example
2009-12-28) and set the index value for 2010-01-01 at 100.0. If there is no data for
2010-01-01, the system will select the closest available value after this date for this data
point. This will raise a red flag in the system and the data will undergo the usual process
for when a new data provider is added.
● Current Value: This is the most recent data point available in the table, taking into
account the 24-hour delay.
● The calculation for the current index = current value / base value * 100

Once the data is indexed, Truflation conducts the second round of the automated Quality
Control procedure. The steps for this QC round are:

● Historical data comparison


● Data presence
● Current data comparison
● Data variation

If the data passes our quality control process again, it is then cleared to progress to the next
step. If there are any red flags, the process will stop and will be reviewed with human
intervention.

Step 5 - Categorization / Relative weights


This step sees each data source classified into its designated category/sub-categories. One data
source can be attributed across multiple categories/sub-categories, depending on the breadth
of the data. For example, NielsenIQ’s data is incorporated into the following categories: Food at
Home, Alcohol & Tobacco, Household Durables and Daily Items (small household appliances,
household goods, stationary, etc), Recreation & Culture (for pet food and toys) and Others
(personal care).

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A weighting factor is then applied for each data source within each category/sub-category. This
weighting factor is relative and in line with the already existing data sources and their
associated weighting. This weighting is determined based on:
● The number of items tracked: The greater the number of items measured, the higher the
weighting. To determine the contribution of this factor, we use a simplistic calculation of
the number of items tracked by the new data source divided by the number of items
tracked in that category/sub-category already.
● The representation of the data: If the data represents the entire US nation, we would
ascribe it a factor of 1; if the data is not nationally representative, then we apply a factor
based on the geographic representation, the coverage of the US population and the
contribution to the national sales in that category. These factors are all weighed equally,
e.g. if a new data provider represents the East Coast only, we need to determine the
population and the market share of the East Coast.
For illustration purposes:
o Geographic Representation = 15% of the US population; which would give us a
factor of 0.15 factor for data representation, given the national factor is 1.
o Market Share within the geographic representation is 50% - this would be 50% of
the 0.15, which would equal 0.075.
● The methodology of the data collection: Each type of methodology has a different
weighting factor:
o if the data is census level / actual data, then it receives a factor of 1.
o Data collection through a primary methodology (e.g. surveys) with quality
control measures is discounted by 50%.
o Data collection through a primary methodology (e.g. social collection) with
claimed statements is then discounted by a further 50% on top of the previous
50% i.e. an additional 25%.

These three variables are then added together in equal proportion to provide a relative
weighting factor to already existing data sources that are included in the Truflation
category/sub-category indexes. The table below shows how these weightings are applied to the
data:

Table 2.0 – An illustration of the weighting


Current Data Sources Truflation Calculation Weight
Data Data Weighting on Sub Relative Weighting on
Category Sub Category
Source Frequency Category Importance Truflation CPI
Rented
Numbeo Housing Monthly 20% 8.1% 1.6%
dwellings
Rented
ACY Housing Monthly 20% 8.1% 1.6%
dwellings

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Rented
Zillow Housing Monthly 20% 8.1% 1.6%
dwellings
Rented
Redfin Housing Monthly 20% 8.1% 1.6%
dwellings
Apartment Rented
Housing Monthly 20% 8.1% 1.6%
List dwellings

The calculation is:

Weighting in sub-category * sub-category relative importance = weighting in Truflation CPI

Relative Importance data is stored in a separate table and the exact weights of each category /
subcategory / sub-sub category is located in Appendix A for the US.

Step 6 - Aggregated Indexes


Following the weighting allocation, an adjusted index is created in which the
indexed/normalized data is multiplied by the relative weights:

● The 1st stage of the calculation is index adjusted = source index * weighting in Truflation
CPI
● All the sub sub-categories are then rolled up to create the sub-category, category and
Truflation indexes.

Finally, we undertake a third round of the automated quality control process. These steps
include:
● Historical data comparison
● Data presence
● Current data comparison
● Data variation

Again, if the data passes these quality controls, it then progresses to the delivery phase.
However, if any red flags emerge it will then stop and require human review and sign-off from at
least two individuals in the organization.

The CPI as reported by the BLS includes a Laspeyres-type index, in which the weights are based
on a historical time period. However, since consumers are believed to change their buying
patterns away from higher inflation items over time, the Laspeyres index theoretically contains
an inbuilt upward bias. The inverse is applicable to the Paasche index (both are fixed basket
indices), while the Fisher index is also adopted to approximate a cost-of-living index (COLI).

In the case of Truflation Consumer Price Index calculation, we do not employ Laspeyres,
Paasche, or Fisher indices, since our approach is based on capturing high-volume data (over 13

13
million prices of goods and services), rather than using a limited basket of 80,000 items like the
BLS.

The use of census-level data is significantly advantageous as it automatically deals with


consumer substitutions, rather than employing a calculator that traditional index providers
need to adjust for. Truflation’s index already covers the changes in consumer’s baskets over
time, given the high volume of pricing data that we collect across various categories. In addition
to price information, we also have spend and volume information, allowing us to create average
prices. As such, Truflation doesn't need to rely on creating a substitution calculation. For
example, in the food categories, if we collect the price of all available stock keeping units
(SKUs)/items. With this information, we have volumetric data that allows us to create an
average price. Truflation believes in capturing as comprehensive a snapshot of consumer
experiences as possible. Therefore, we do not employ a chain-price technique.

Step 7 - Deliverables
Our standard deliverables include the delivery of the current index, the current index from a
year ago, and the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change. To determine the YoY percentage
change, we require the following metrics:
● Target Date: Determine the date from which we wish to measure the YoY inflation
● Current Index: Extract the index on that day
● Current Index a year ago: Extract the index on that day one year ago

The calculation for the YoY percentage change is:

YoY % Change = (current index – current index a year ago) * 100


current index a year ago

For example, if we’re looking to calculate the YoY percentage change for May 22, 2023
● Current Index: This is the index on the May 22, 2023
● Current Index a year ago: This is the index on the May 22, 2022

The US Truflation CPI Index category and sub-category indexes are currently available on the
Truflation Dashboard. There are a total of 31 Truflation price indexes currently available that are
listed out in Graph 2.0

Table 3.0 – Truflation US Price Indexes


Category Sub-Categories Sub-Sub-Categories

Truflation CPI

Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages - Food at Home - Food at Home - Cereals Index
- Food away from Home Index - Food at Home - Dairy

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- Food at Home - Fruit & Veg
- Food at Home - Meat, Fish & Eggs
- Food at Home - Other Foods

Housing - Rented Housing


- Owned Housing
- Other Lodgings

Transportation - Vehicle Purchases


- Gasoline
- Public Transportation

Utilities - Natural Gas Utilities


- Electricity Utilities

Health

Household & Daily Items

Alcohol & Tobacco - Alcoholic Beverages


- Tobacco Products

Clothing & Footwear

Communications - Residential Communications

Education

Recreation & Culture

Others

All Truflation data is available via the Dashboard, the online subscription, or via the Enterprise
solution that delivers all the data in a variety of formats. Truflation reports three different
numbers on a daily basis:
1. Price index of today
2. Price index one year ago today
3. Year-over-year percentage change today vs. a year ago today

The price index data allows Truflation users to calculate the percentage change in each category
/ sub-category at selected custom intervals such as half-year, month-over-month. and
day-over-day.

Beyond delivering the Truflation CPI indexes, we also leverage the same data set to generate the
core inflation rate (price change of goods and services minus food and energy), non-core (price

15
change of food and energy only), the price change of goods and the price change of services
indexes, which we deliver as part of the overall service.

Custom Indexes for Specific Needs


At Truflation, we have accumulated exceptional expertise in designing and calculating
traditional weighted indexes as well as alternatively-weighted indexes. Some of our users
require a unique index. To deliver these custom indexes, we tap into the full scope of our
indexing capabilities and extensive data. Our custom indexes apply the same index construction,
maintenance discipline, data reliability, and support as our core Truflation CPI index offering.

Building the custom indexes requires the following three steps:


1. Define your benchmarking needs beyond Truflation’s core CPI Indexes
2. Translate this via our customization options (specialized calculations and weightings
based on the index definition)
3. Choose your preferred deployment option

Conclusion
Truflation’s US CPI indexes offer an unmatchable set of real-time data for macroeconomic
analysis. We provide users with previously unavailable data that can be deployed to enable
better-informed decisions. Truflation is built on the following foundations:
1. Data Sources: 30+
2. Data points: 13+ million
3. Frequency of Updates: Daily
4. Last Household Expenditure Update: 2022

These groundbreaking new indexes can be used for everything from smarter, faster market
hedges, to helping offset costs in new product development.

For further detail, please contact us:


● Contact us: https://truflation.com/contact-us
● X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/truflation
● Telegram: https://t.me/truflation
● Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/truflation

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Brief outline of Truflation’s other tools and services
Truflation Inflation Drivers
Truflation has been introducing macroeconomic indexes that may help to explain the movement
in prices of the Truflation CPI categories or sub-categories. These indexes can also be a leading
indicator of future economic activity and can be used to predict the changes in the movement
of prices for goods and services, or even changes in the US economy, before the leading
indicators begin to shift in a particular direction.

There are over 104 inflation driver indexes that are available to leverage. The list includes:
1. Marco Economic Data - Household debt information, retail sales, inventories, personal
spending and savings rates, consumer sentiment, GDP, Federal Funds Rate, etc.
2. Labor Data - Openings, hires, separations, unemployment, wages, etc.
3. Precious Metals - Gold, silver, platinum, copper, aluminum, palladium, etc.
4. Truflation Category Inflation Drivers
a. Housing - Sales activities, pricing, ownership rates, mortgage rates, etc.
b. Utilities - Gasoline, natural gas and heating oil prices, strategic petroleum
reserves, etc.
c. Transportation - Car sales, inventories, registrations, airplane passenger number,
Gasoline sales, Crude oil/WTI futures, etc.
d. Food - Retail sales, inventories, put of home retail sales, commodities (cattle,
lean hogs, corn, wheat, orange juice, etc.)

Truflation Dashboard
The Truflation Dashboard is a data visualization tool connected to the Truflation index API that
calculates the most current inflation rate and price indexes. It provides users with a view of the
reported historical data and allows them to see the daily, weekly, monthly and yearly changes.
All dashboard charts are updated according to the UTC timezone.

Truflation Personal Inflation Calculator


The Truflation Personal Inflation Calculator estimates an inflation rate based on personal
household spending patterns and compares this with the general purpose Truflation index
number. The calculator uses the latest data available from Truflation’s daily inflation indexes.

Truflation Forecasting
Truflation Forecasting is based on past Truflation inflation data only to predict not only what the
inflation rate will be in the future but also to predict the inflation rate as reported by the BLS.
This is used to update market practitioners’ expectations on future developments, allowing
them to adjust their investment strategies.

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Truflation RWA Oracle
The Truflation RWA Oracle is a source of financial and economic data that connects the
community of developers and data scientists with organizations that seek unique business
insights and offers both of them access to robust, quality-controlled datasets and data sources.

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APPENDIX A
Relative Importance for the US

Below is the Relative Importance data, including the exact weights of each category,
sub-category, and sub-sub-category for the US.

Truflation Category Truflation Sub-Category Weighting

Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages 15.3

Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages Food at home 10.3

Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages Food away from home 4.9

Housing 23.2

Housing Other lodging 1.3

Housing Owned dwellings 13.7

Housing Rented dwellings 8.1

Transportation 19.8

Transportation Gasoline, other fuels, and motor oil 3.2

Transportation Other vehicle expenses 7.0

Transportation Public and other transportation 0.5

Transportation Vehicle purchases (net outlay) 9.1

Utilities 5.9

Utilities Electricity 3.3

Utilities Fuel oil and other fuels 0.2

Utilities Natural gas 0.9

Utilities Water and other public services 1.5

Health 8.5

Health Drugs 0.8

Health Health insurance 6.0

Health Medical services 1.4

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Health Medical supplies 0.3

Household Durables & Daily Use Items 7.2

Household Durables & Daily Use Items Household furnishings and equipment 3.6

Household Durables & Daily Use Items Household operations 2.3

Household Durables & Daily Use Items Housekeeping supplies 1.3

Alcohol & Tobacco 1.9

Alcohol & Tobacco Alcoholic beverages 1.1

Alcohol & Tobacco Tobacco products and smoking supplies 0.8

Clothing & Footwear 3.8

Clothing & Footwear Children under 2 0.2

Clothing & Footwear Footwear 0.8

Clothing & Footwear Men and boys 0.9

Clothing & Footwear Other apparel products and services 0.5

Clothing & Footwear Women and girls 1.4

Communications 3.2

Communications Cellular phone service 2.8

Communications Residential phone, VOIP & phone cards 0.4

Education 2.3

Education Education fees 2.1

Education Reading 0.2

Recreation & Culture 5.6

Recreation & Culture Audio and visual equipment and services 2.0

Recreation & Culture Fees and admissions 0.8

Recreation & Culture Other entertainment supplies, equip services 1.1

Recreation & Culture Pets, toys, hobbies & playground equipment 1.7

Other 3.2

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