Technical University of Middle Euphrates Engineering Management and Construction

Faculty of Technical Engineering in Najaf Equipment

Department of Building and Construction Lecture 5: Weeks 9-10/ PERT
Techniques Lecturer: Dr. Mohammed Ali Ahmed

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Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a project management tool used
to analyse and represent the tasks involved in completing a given project. It is used to
estimate the time and cost of a project by breaking it down into smaller, more
manageable components and charting the interdependencies between the tasks. PERT
charts allow project managers to identify and address critical paths and bottlenecks,
helping to ensure that projects are completed on time and within budget.

Purpose of PERT
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is an important tool used in
project management. It is used to identify task dependencies and critical paths, plan
resources, estimate task duration, and identify potential risks. It also helps to define
and sequence activities, coordinate resources, and track progress. PERT is useful in
project planning because it allows project managers to accurately predict project
completion time, costs, and resource utilization. With PERT, project managers can also
identify potential risks and develop strategies to mitigate them. By using PERT, project
managers can ensure that projects are completed on time and within budget.

The major differences between CPM and PERT

The main differences between CPM and PERT have been expressed in different
ways. One of these expressions has been developed based on the factors impacted by
the two techniques. These factors and the impact of each method is depicted bellow.
Table 1:Original differences between CPM and PERT

Advantages of PERT
Here are several benefits of using PERT in project management:

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 1. It helps maximize the use of resources.
2. It makes project planning more manageable.
3. It's useful even if there is little or no previous schedule data.
4. It enables project managers to better estimate or determine a more definite
completion date.

Disadvantages of PERT
Like any other method, PERT comes with its share of limitations:
1. In complex projects, many find PERT hard to interpret, so they may also use a
Gantt chart, another popular method for project management.
2. It can be tedious to update, modify, and maintain the PERT diagram.
3. It entails a subjective time analysis of activities and, for those who are less
experienced or are biased, this may affect the project’s schedule.

Creating a PERT Chart

A flowchart is used to depict the PERT. Nodes represent the events, indicating the
start or end of activities or tasks. The directorial lines indicate the tasks that need to be
completed, and the arrows show the sequence of the activities.
There are four definitions of time used to estimate project time requirements:
1. Optimistic time: the minimum possible time required to accomplish an
activity (o) or a path (O), assuming everything proceeds better than is
normally expected.
2. Pessimistic time: the maximum possible time required to accomplish an
activity (p) or a path (P), assuming everything goes wrong (but excluding
major catastrophes).
3. Most likely time: the best estimate of the time required to accomplish an
activity (m) or a path (M), assuming everything proceeds as normal.
4. Expected time: the best estimate of the time required to accomplish an
activity (te) or a path (TE), accounting for the fact that things don't always
proceed as normal (the implication being that the expected time is the
average time the task would require if the task were repeated on a number
of occasions over an extended period of time).

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 Course: construction Management
Class: 3 Mustansiriya University
ourse: construction Management
ass: 3 Lecture No.8 Mustansiriya University
Collage of Engineering /Water Recourse Dept.
ecture No.8 Prepared by: Assist. Prof. Dr. Faris Waleed Jawad
Collage of Engineering /Water Recourse Dept.
epared by: Assist. Prof. Dr. Faris Waleed Jawad
is the average time the task would require if the task were repeated on
is the average time the task would require if the task were repeated on
a number of occasions over an extended period of time ).
a number of occasions over an extended period of time ).

Calculating the Probable Time of Project Completion

To calculate the probability of completing a project within a specific period of time

using PERT, follow the steps below:
a- The estimated time Te is:
1. Calculate the Te
a- The estimated time estimated
is: time for each activity (e) using the formula below:

𝑶+𝟒𝒎+𝑷
te = ---------- (1)
𝑶+𝟒𝒎+𝑷 𝟔
te = ---------- (1)
𝟔
o: optimistic time, m= most likely time and P= probability
o: optimistic
Where: time, m=
o: optimistic mostm:
Time; likely time andtime;
P= probability
The mean time most
of thelikely
project andto:p: pessimistic time
equals
Themean
The meantime
time
ofof
thethe project
project equals
equals to: to:
TE = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑡𝑒𝑖 for each activity on the critical path --------(2)
𝑛
TE = 𝑖=1 𝑡𝑒𝑖
∑ for each activity on the critical path --------(2)

2. Draw theb-network diagramofforthe

The variance thecritical
entire project based
activities on e values.
is calculated through using
b- The3.variance
Determine thecritical
of the critical activities
path. is calculated through using
this equation:
4. Find the variance (V) for the critical path activities by using the coming
this equation:
formula: Variance (V) = (
𝑷−𝑶 2
) ----------------------(3)
𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 (𝑉) =
Variance (V) = ( 𝝈𝟐𝑷−𝑶= )2((𝒑 − 𝒐)/𝟔)𝟐 … 𝟔 … … … … . (𝟑)
----------------------(3)
5. Find the Standard 𝟔Deviation for the critical path activities by using| Pthe age2
formula below: |Pag e2

𝝈 = 𝑺. 𝑫 = √𝚺𝑽 … … … … … … .. (𝟒)

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:‫( ﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﯿﺎت اﻟﻤﺴﺎر اﻟﺤﺮج ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ادﻧﺎه‬σcp = Standard deviation) ‫ اﯾﺠﺎد اﻻﻧﺤﺮاف اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري‬-5

σcp = �∑𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉 (6-3)

Figure
Figure (6-1): 1:Distribution
Distribution of normal
of normal probability
probability

Page 2 of 6.
5 Compute the area under curve (Z) to find the probability of project
completion at the duration previously predicted:
𝒁 = (𝑻𝒔 − 𝑻𝒆)/𝝈 = (𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞– 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞)/𝐒𝐃 … … … … … … (𝟓)
TS: Specified time for the project (Should be given to find out if the probability of
project completion would be within that time or more than it).
TE: The expected time for the project (it represents the length of the critical path
calculated by critical path method).
Hint:
If Z≥ 0 then probability = 0.5 +A1
If Z≤ 0 then probability = 0.5 –A2
7. The probability can be obtained based on Z value.

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Table 2: Normal Distribution Function

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 Course: construction Management
Class: 3 Mustansiriya University
Lecture No.8 Collage of Engineering /Water Recourse Dept.
Table 3:by:
Prepared Standard Normal
Assist. Prof. Table
Dr. Faris (Z) Jawad
Waleed

Table (6-2): Normal distribution function

Example 5-1:
Example 6-1: For a particular activity of a project, time estimates received from two
For a particular activity of a project, time estimates received from two engineers X and
Y are shown as
engineers X follows:
and Y are shown as follows:

Engineer o m p |Pag e4

(day) (day) (day)

X 4 6 8
Y 3 5 8

StateState
whowho
is more certain
is more about
certain thethe
about time forfor
time completion ofof
completion thethejob.
job?

Sol./ 7
The degree of uncertainty is measured by the variance of time estimates
 Sol./
The degree of uncertainty is measured by the variance of time estimates.
The variance of time estimates for the times given by engineer X is computed using
the formula 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 (𝑉) = 𝝈𝟐 = ((𝒑 − 𝒐)/𝟔)𝟐 … … … … … . (𝟑)
[(8 - 4)/6]2 = 0.4356
• The variance of time estimates for the times given by engineer Y is [(8 - 3)/6]2
= 0.69
• The variance of time estimates given by engineer Y is more. It is well known,
greater the variance, greater will be uncertainty.
• Thus, time estimates of engineer X have more certainty.
Note: If the project has two critical paths, the critical path with the higher variance
(standard deviation) should be chosen to calculate the specified probability.

Example 5-2:

If the mean duration of a project is 40 weeks. Find the following (use V= 14.58):

1- Probability of completing the project in 45 weeks Solution:

S.D = √∑𝑉
S.D = √14.58 = 3.82

Z= (𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒−𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒)/SD= (45−40)/3.82= 1.31

If Z≥ 0 then probability = 0.5 +A1

From Table when use Z= 1.31

Then: A=0.4049

probability = P = 0.5 +A1= 0.5+0.4049= 0.9049=90.49%.

2- The expect duration on to complete 45% of the project.

P = 0.45

P= 0.5 + A

0.45=0.5+A= 0.45-0.5= -0.05

A= - 0.05 then from table Z= - 0.13

Z= (Expected Time-mean time)/SD= -0.13= (Expected Time-40)/3.82

Expect time = 39.5 (approx. 40 weeks)

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 Course: construction Management
Class: 3construction Management Mustansiriya University
Course:
Example
3 No.8 5-3:
Lecture
Class: Mustansiriya University
Collage of Engineering /Water Recourse Dept.
Prepared by:
Lecture No.8 Assist. Prof. Dr. Faris Waleed Jawad
Collage of Engineering /Water Recourse Dept.
For the
Prepared by:project data
Assist. Prof. Dr.shown in table
Faris Waleed Jawadbelow. Find the probability of completing the
Example 2: for the project data shown in table below. Find the probability of
project in 332:weeks.
Example for
completing thethe project
project data
in 33 shown in table below. Find the probability of
weeks.
completing the project in 33 weeks.
Activity 1-2 1-3 2-4 3-5 4-6 4-9 5-6 5-7 6-8 7-8 8-10 9-10 10-11
Activity 1-2 1-3 2-4 3-5 4-6 4-9 5-6 5-7 6-8 7-8 8-10 9-10 10-11
O 6 2 6 4 0 2 4 5 1 2 2 1 2
O 6 2 6 4 0 2 4 5 1 2 2 1 2
M 9 4 8 7 0 3 7 9 2 3 4 4 3
M 9 4 8 7 0 3 7 9 2 3 4 4 3
P 15 8 10 12 0 6 9 11 4 5 5 6 5
P 15 8 10 12 0 6 9 11 4 5 5 6 5

Sol:/
Solution:
Solution:
Activity O M P Te Variance
Activity O M P Te Variance
𝑷−𝑶 2
𝑶+𝟒𝒎+𝑷 ( )
=𝑶+𝟒𝒎+𝑷 𝑷−𝑶
( 𝟔)2
𝟔
= 𝟔
𝟔
1-2 6 9 15 9.5
1-2 6 9 15 9.5
1-3 2 4 8 4.3* (1)2
1-3 2 4 8 4.3* (1)2
2-4 6 8 10 8
2-4 6 8 10 8
3-5 4 7 12 7.3* (1.33)2
3-5 4 7 12 7.3* (1.33)2
4-6 0 0 0 0
4-6 0 0 0 0
4-9 2 3 6 3.3
4-9 2 3 6 3.3
5-6 4 7 9 6.8
5-6 4 7 9 6.8
2
5-7 5 9 11 8.7* (1)
2
5-7 5 9 11 8.7* (1)
6-8 1 2 4 2.2
6-8 1 2 4 2.2
2
7-8 2 3 5 3.2* (0.5)
2
7-8 2 3 5 3.2* (0.5)
2
8-10 2 4 5 3.8* (0.5)
2
8-10 2 4 5 3.8* (0.5)
9-10 1 4 6 3.8
9-10 1 4 6 3.8
10-11 2 3 5 3.2* (0.5)2
10-11 2 3 5 3.2* (0.5)2

|Pag e6
|Pag e6

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S.D=√∑𝑉= SD≡√(1)2 +(1.33)2 +(1)2 +(0.5)2 +(10.5)2 +(0.5)2

S.D= 2.13

Z= (Expected Time-Mean Time)/SD= (33-30.5)/ 2.13= 1.17

From table A= 0.379

P= 0.5 +A= 0.5+0.379= 87.9 %

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 Collage of Engineering /Water Recourse Dept.
Prepared by: Assist. Prof. Dr. Faris Waleed Jawad
Project Evaluation Review Technique: PERT analysis technique.
Project Evaluation Review Technique: PERT analysis technique.
Example
Example 5-4:3
Example
ForFor
the the 3 datadata
project
project shown
shown in table
in table below.
below. Find
Find the the expected
expected timetime to achieve
to achieve the
For the
the project
probabilitydata
of shown
67%. in table
Assume below.
M=2O
probability of 67%. Assume M=2O and P=3O. Find
and the
P=3O. expected time to achieve
the probability of 67%. Assume M=2O and P=3O.
Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-3 2-5 3-5 4-6 5-7 7-8 6-8 8-9 9-10
O
Activity 1-2 2 1-3 7 1-4 4 2-3 5 2-5 8 3-5 9 4-6 7 5-7 6 7-8 4 6-8 5 8-9 3 9-102
O 2 7 4 5 8 9 7 6 4 5 3 2
Sol/:
Solution:
Solution:
Activity O M P Te Variance
Activity O M P Te Variance
𝑷−𝑶 2
𝑶+𝟒𝒎+𝑷 ( )
=
𝑶+𝟒𝒎+𝑷 (
𝑷−𝑶𝟔 2
)
𝟔
= 𝟔
𝟔
1-2 2 4 6 4* (0.67)2
1-2 2 4 6 4* (0.67)2 2
1-3 7 14 21 14* (2.33)
1-3 7 14 21 14* (2.33)2
1-4 4 8 12 8
1-4 4 8 12 8
2-3 5 10 15 10* (1.67)2
2-3 5 10 15 10* (1.67)2
2-5 8 16 24 16
2-5 8 16 24 16
3-5 9 18 27 18* (3)2
3-5 9 18 27 18* (3)2
4-6 7 14 21 14
4-6 7 14 21 14
5-7 6 12 18 12* (2)2
5-7 6 12 18 12* (2)2 2
7-8 4 8 12 8* (1.33)
7-8 4 8 12 8* (1.33)2
6-8 5 10 15 10
6-8 5 10 15 10
8-9 3 6 9 6* (1)2
8-9 3 6 9 6* (1)2 2
9-10 2 4 6 4* (0.67)
9-10 2 4 6 4* (0.67)2

|Pag e1
|Pag e1

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S.D = √∑ 𝑉 =
𝑆D = √(0.67)2 + (2.33)2 + (1.67)2 + (3)2 + (2)2 +(1.33)2 +(1)2 + + (0.67)2

S.D= 4.99

P=0.67= 0.5 + A
Then A= 0.67-0.5=0.17
From the Standard Normal Table (Z); Z= 0.44
Z= (𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒−𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒)/SD=
0.44= (𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒−62)/4.99
(0.44*4.99) = 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒−62
2.1956= 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒−62
Expected Time= 2.2 + 62
Then Expected time = 64.2 ~ 65 days.

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