7 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION, Introduction ‘The frequency distributions, when the value of the variate in the population are distributed ace ‘0 some law which can be expressed mathematically are called probability distributions Depending apy the type of random variable, the probability distributions are classified into two categories, ° (Discrete probability distributions (i) Continuous probability distributions In this chapter we shall study di distribution and continuous probability 7.2. Binomial Distribution iscrete probability distributions like Binomial distibuton, Py distribution, i.e. Normal distribution. (P.T.U. 2009) Binomial distribution is an important distribution used when there are two Possible outcomes (bee! binomial). It was discovered by Swiss scientist James Bernulli and hence also known as Bemouliy| distribution. A discrete random variable X is said to follow binomial distribution if it assumes only Ron-negzne. values and its probability mass function is given by "Cptg"Fce0 49 PK =2)=p()= | tel ene 0 3 otherwise The two independent constants n and p are known as the Parameters of the distribution. ‘n’ is 2° Sometimes, known as the degree of the binomial distribution, Binomial distribution is a discrete distribution as X can take only the integral values, viz, 0, 1, 2, Any random variable which follows binomial distribution is known as binomial variate. We shall use the notation X ~ B (n, p) to denote that the random variable X follows bixoail (n, distribution with parameters n and p. The probability p(x) is also sometimes denoted as 6 (x, 2,p). ies is permissible because Remarks : 1. The assignment of probabiliti Let us suppose that trials constitute an experiment. Then, if this experiment i repeated N the frequency function ofthe binomial distribution is given by: SQ)=N X pla)=N x E("lprer 3 A 01-2 3 eA and the expected frequencies of 0, 1, 2, .. m successes are the successive terms of the bi" expansion of N (q+ p)",q+P 5842011, 2013) asitons for Binomial distribution i 4 pe binomial distribution under the following experimental conditions : ee ch trial results in two exhaustive and mutually disjoint outcomes, termed as success and failure. (7 FT gumber of trials“ finite and fixed, @ is-are independent of each other. e rial! . a probability of success ‘p” is constant foreach tral i ( ils satisfying the conditions ((), (ii) and (iv) are also called Bernoulli trials. lems relating to tossing of a coin or throwing of dice or drawing cards from a pack of cards ent Jeads to binomial probability distribution, * Bi ial distribution is important Not only because of its wide applicability, but because it gives rise voter probability distributions. The statistical tables for p(x) are available for various values of vation of Binomial Distributio us consider a set of m independent (n is finite) trials, in which the probability p of success of any prucnsatandg the probability offre, fe. g= 1p, probability of x successes and consequently (n — x) failures in n independent trails, in a specified ie (03) SSFSFFFS....FSF (where S represents success and F represents failure) is given by the probebilty theorem by the expression : p (SSFSFFFS...FSF) = P(S)P(S)P(F)P(S)PCF)PCF)PCF)P(S) X ....X PCF)P(S)PCF) = PP99G Pom PF iP. pide FPP vm BQ G me = PeQh* a ( factors) (n—x factors). t Butx successes in » trials can occur in "C, ways and the probability for each of these ways is some, ic p'q""*. Hence; the probability ofx successes in trials in any rider is given by the addition theorem x gnnx pobabilty by the expression "C,, pq’ The probability distribution of the number of successes, so obtained is called the Binomial probability tibution, for the obvious reason that the probabilities of 0, 1,2, .. m successes, viz. q”,"C, q”"!p, 'p” , are the successive terms of the binomial expansion (q+ p)”. =| 4 [Peers of Binom 1 Distribution (P-T.U. 2004) lisa discrete probability distribution in which random variable can take only a countable number of Yes, 1,2,3, at Tk probability function for B.D. represents probability of having a fixed number of success (r) out of P(X=n="C, p’ g”~", where p isthe probability of success in a ‘ned ‘number of trial (n), i | ble tial and p+ qe 1, r=0, 1,2 soon F "Canber of wats) and p (probability of success ina single tral) ae the only two parameters. 7ASPECTRUM MATHEMATICSHIT FOR EL ECINONICS AND COMMUNICA T gy k 4. Mean of B.D. Inn p. Proof: Let X ~B.D.(mp) P(Ke rm MC, pl gh ptqrl ro O bi 2, By definition, Mean (X) = E.(X) - vr P(Xer)= Sirte, plat? r=0 r=0 = 0."Cy.p® q 4 1MC, pl gt! 1 = O4npgt 422@a) aOR) n-2 a nol om + (nN) ph? ——) hLhLr =np(qtp) a mean == np 5. Variance of B.D. is mp q. Proof : Var (X) = E (X?)-(E(X))? = E(X?)-(u)? = E(X?)—(np)? “P(K=r)-(npy = Dor? "C, p? g"" ~(np)? Ab + o mr _ingh = Vireo -iy"c, p’ 9" -(np)? = “yr rc, pig’? + Yir(r-"C, pd (0 r= r=0 =0 =mpt2.1"Cy. pig’? 43.2"Cy pq! 3+... ¢n(n=l)p"~ (np)? -D(n- nr wmpe2x Gd » prgt? 43x 22-Vn-2) 39-3 4. acted Dp" +. Ix2x3 =nptn(n=l)p[q'? +(n-2) pq" +... +p""?]- (np)? sap tala WP lg? +" Cy pal... +" Cy_2 ph] (np) smptn n=) q+ py”? (n py? pt (Pn) p(y? — (np)?SPECTRUM MATHEMATICS-IIL FOR ELECTRONICS AND COMMUNICATION E! 7.2.3 Fitting of a Binomial Distribution For fitting @ Binomial Distribution to the given set of data, determine the following from the data + () Mean of B.D = np = Mean of the given distribution = z 4 Ly; (ii) Find, p = probability of success in a single trial for g (il) N= Total frequency = ¥ f, iven number of trials. (iv) Find the expected frequency given by S(K= NaN P(Ker) NeMC, pl gt 6 pr 04,2, 3 eM ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES an is 9 and whose standard deviat Example 1. Determine the binomial distribution (or B.D.) whose me: sd. 2 : 3 Sol. Mean = 9, S.D.= > np=9 3 and (npg = 5 npq=9 (2) Dividing (2) by (1), we get, quia pzl-g=i nae = 12 1 inomial distributic is(L+ ) : binomial distribution is (7 + 7 Example 2. If the sum of mean and variance of binomial distribution is 4.8 for five trials. Find the (P.T.U, 2015) ibution. Sol. Here n= 5 and mean + variance = 4.8 = nptnpg=48 Sp+Sp(l—p)=48 (: q=l-p) Sp+Sp-5p=48 5 p?-10 p+4.8 =0 104f100-96 _ 1042 _ 12 8 Si 08 i 10 10 10'10 (+ mean = np, variance = np 9) eae<< L always S61 and we have py =1-08=02 ve 1 et is He fires 7 tim i a em ove te 4 'es. What is the probability of his gH ad that how many times must Lat S ce he fire so that Probability of hitting the target atleast once is yer a (P.T.U, 2010) Paul 1 n=, Poa = 3 pei-ra3 go Here 44 required probability = P (hitting atleast twice) =1-[P@+P()] 7 7¢ (3) 47 fala} re “iE Let mbe the number of trials required such that (3) P (hitting the target atleast once) > z 1 —P (no hitting the target) > = n 3)", 2 1-"c,|2| >2 l>3 aye =| nag3 _pystRIBUTIONS are thrown 729 times. H for = low many time do you expect at least three dice to sharm five ft Po te Myers of getting 5 oF 6 with one die. cua _ 6 cted number of times at least three dice showing 5 or 6. “mf “Ts ee (2 = 729| 259 * 729 * 729 * 729) ~ 79 2) was 1 Aand B play a game jin which their chances of winning are in the ratio 3 : 2. Find A’s chance we atthe games ou ofthe five games played. (PT. 2015) Sapte wnt at ‘A’ wins the game. Here, we are given 3 n75,P= 3 =q gytinomial probability law, the probability that out of 5 games played, A wins ‘x’ games is given by : 8)(3)*(2)° wX-3)=P A=] 3 3) 3220, 1,245 rerequired probability that ‘A’ wins alteast tree games is given by ie 2 ro2y-3()22-3 [P(r] rm) 1 2a, g= lope 379 _ 27x(40+3049) _ 9.68, 3125 Iample8. With the usual notation, find p for a binomial variate X, if = Gand 9 (X=4)=P(K=2)- (P.7.U.2010) n=6 and p, the probability function is ‘€Fer te binomial random variable X with parameters PX=r)= (‘Jers yr =0,1,2,6 r Weare given 9P(X = 4) = P (X= 2) 6 ° (Jee -()eaSPC TRUE MACTHTEATA TICS HHL LOI ELECHIONICH ANI COSITUNICA IOS ENGINE HUN Op? = P soppy Le pro dp 2 gafaiae -246 1 I @ Rp Ip laO0 ep vt ig 7 : 1 Since probability cannot be negative, p= 5 Hs re}eeted Hence, p Example 9, The mean and variance of binomial distribution are 4 ant respectively, Find (X 2 |), Sol. Let X ~ B (n, p), Therefore we have Mean = ny and var(X) = npq = : On dividing, we get q = ; eels by (i), we obtain 1 = ¢ = AK og, D 18a url pore ner-poreo=1-g"=1-(4) = a 099863. Example 10. Cheek the correctness of statement, “Mean of a B.D is 3 nnd variance iy." (MTU. 200 Sol. Mean of B.D = np = 3 Variance of B.D=npq=5 On dividing (ii) by (0, we get 72945 5 ee | mp 34 3 which is not possible, as 0S q 51 ‘Therefore, the given statement is not correct. Example 11, If on an average one ship out of 10 is wrecked, find the probability that out of S ANB expected to arrive the por, atleast four wil arrive sufely, (BTU, 2004, 2008) Sol. Given, on average one ship out of 10 is wrecked probability a ship is wrecked (damaged) = q = a a 19 probability a ship reached safely “pe l-qg = leap a Let X be the random variable representing the number of ships expected to arrive sately onl OlISTRIBUTIONS mD 9 (ayer U0) (10 =P (out of S ships, atleast * will arrive safely) “PREM =PX= 44 (X= 5) | sla lsloe'g 10. | 91854 | 12. Ifthe probability that a new born child is a male is 0.6. Find the probability that in a family of sot there are exactly three boys. (P-T.U. 2015, 2017) @ f = probability a new born child is a male = 0.6 wee Pe 1-0.6=0.4 aX be the random variable representing the number of male children in a family of 5 children. ' sy, binomial distribution, the probability of having ‘r’ male children out of a family of n ~ 5 children is, parnn=5C, p’ gS" = 5c, 0.6) (0ays-" «required probabil =P(X=3)= Sc, (0.6)? (0.4)? = 10 «0.216 x 0.16 = 0.3456. fampke 13. Find the mean of binomial distribution B (« 3) i (P.T.U. 2014) saGien random variable X ~ B.D (« 3) 2 oned, pa Access, (P.T.U, 2017) Wives, Mean = np =3 oO Mvaane= np q= 2 ii) dividing (i) by (7), we get pad 1 mp ID ePaicgei ed el ena Po >566 STRONICS AND COMMUNICATION ENGINE Ing From (), np=3 = Hs} 2 n=6 Let X be the random variable representing number of success out of a trial of n= 6 ree e Nie 1)’ P(X== 6c, pg?! -*c,(3] (3) a *e, (5) the required probability = P (atleast 4 success) = P (X = 4) =P (X=4)+P(X=5)+P(X=6) -*e,(s) 0,(tf +e,(2) =(i5#621) —— ol 64 64 32 ; Example 15. A die is thrown 10.times. If getting an even number is a success. What is the probability of getting atleast 6 successes ? (P-T.U. 2014) ‘Sol. When a die is thrown, the sample space is S= (1,2, 3,4, 5, 6} p= probability of getting an even number = 2 = $ 1 siopet qnlo pas Let X be the random variable representing the number of times we get a success (an even number) Therefore, by binomial distribution probability of getting r success is Fp \10=r POK=D="C, pl gll-r =e, (3) (4) . 10. al ie. P(X=n)="C, G) required probability = P (atleast 6 success) = P (X = 6)= P (X= 6)+P (X=7)+P(X=8) +P(X=9)+P(X=10) I 10, 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 10 10 10 10 ~eslZ] er[s} es(a) eea(3] #*0(3 =(E 410E. ye , 106 410 1 -( eH, Hcy +c, + Co) 50 1 = Q10+ 120445 + 10+) = 03769.pps mtBcTHONS 561 Ny is omer that om an average one ship out of 9 was sunk. What is the probability that out 3 sun eon ship on oF 9 AS sunk aera pity HITE = 8 p ; 1 vray of safely arrival of ship ie p=1 += 8 ity 99 out of m ships, r arrives safely is given by sty that eae "ced" ee pen FPP GT G 2 3 8\ (1 10240 roe) (3) e hg oe 1. The probability hat a bomb dropped fom a plane his the get is IF 6 bombs are hy fob probably that alas two wil hit the target, (P-T.U. 2009) 1.2 bos teens p= 3097 Im Sas 1 bing atleast twice) = 1 ~[P (0) + P(1)] [Ae] Feb] on [s-3l- a fam 729° 729 ns nr 729° fa. Ifthe probability of defective bolt is 0.1 find the standard deviation for the defective bolt in a (P.7.U. 2006) Es esto Frbabilty of defective bolt, p= 0.1 Irutabilty of Non defective bolt, = 1 - 0.1 = 0.9 Yom standard deviation, = Jnpg = J00(0.%(039) ~ 00x x2 = /36=6. heat 9, 4 coin is tossed four times. What is the probability of getting more than two heads ? (P-T.U. 2006)gO se2s 1° 716 a ) — o © 3, 0- 1887, 0-0595 i) w@ (i $0 (wm) 530 (i) 500 (c) 0-91854 (99°85 (©) 200(0- in. When tril discitntion ‘2s discovered by the French mathematician Sit ie. mtakes an infinite number of values and wt 6, the binomial distribution is hard to epply or we can Pe psable Under these shustions te. when m= =, P= (0, the distribution applicable appropriately is fariouon i also called distribution of rare events. 2s itis applicable for the iam Exrition. Poisson di ox obich re Fare 10 OCCU, ie for the events whose chance of occurrence is very small. p> 0. A random variable X is said to follow a Poisson distribution if it assumes only non- des ts probability mass function is given by I et ., x=0,1,2,-.. A>0 z x Dees | 0, otherwise the distribution. We shall use the notation X meon Denis Poisso probability of success p for say that it is 3 possom poisson OS™ gon os haze net fixe, is indefinitely small, be. p> negative pAy=P(X=2)= Haze Lis known as the parameter of ~ P (i), to denote 2Xisa Poisson variate with parameter J. eas JI should be noted that) P(X rr) ee Poisson distribution occurs when there are tals (unlike that in binomial distribution) 01 #4 space wherein our interest lies only in the number of oceurren vents which do not occur as outcomes of a definite ‘fan experiment but which occur at random points of ces of the event, not in its non-582 SPECTRUM MATHEMATICS-II] FOR ELECTRONICS AND COMMUNICATION ENG iy, e 3. Following are some instances/examples where Poisson distribution may be successfully employe. (0 Number of deaths from a disease (not in the form of an epidemic) such as heart attack op or due to snake bite. (i) Number of suicides reported in a particular city. (iii) The number of defective material in a packing manufactured by a good concern, (vi) The number of misprints in a news paper. (The number of accidents in some kind of time say 1 minute. 7.3.1 Derivation of Poisson Distribution The Poisson distribution can be derived from @ Asa limiting case of Binomial Distribution. i) Exponential expansion of e*. @ Poisson Distribution as a limiting case of Binomial Distribution (P-T.U. 2008, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2014 Poisson distribution can be derived as limiting case of the Binomial distribution under the fol conditions : @_ 1, the number of trials is indefinitely large, i.e. n > 00, (i) _p, the constant probability of success for each trial is indefinitely small, ie. pro. Git) mp =2 (say) is finite. a a cee Thus p= =, q=1 — —, where is a positive real number. n n By binomial distribution, the probability of x successes in a series of n independent trials is : b(eimp)= (' eran: ¥=0,1,2, 0051 We want the limiting form of (i) under the above conditions , ie. sea limb (51, p)= ne From (2) result (if), we have ‘ nt (ay (,_ay* Bi pchen p= Meg wild } ('-4)dives + WA gx 3 x=0,1,2,3,., ie Lt b(e3mp) = 130 x! tpea which isthe probability function of the Poisson distribution with parameter ‘2’. pe under some very general conditions, the Poisson distribution is a limiting case of the Binomial tion, * (@ Poisson Distribution as Exponential Expansion of é Byexponential expansion of e* , we have pa gp B feD AEE oa 2 3 rmukiplying both sides with e~7, we get eanECTRUM MATHEM. s that the random variable take the values 0, 1, 2, 3, The R.HS. is the sum of the probabil with a total of probability equal to one. Hence, the terms on RHLS. are the probabilities following Poisson distribution corresponding tg different values of random variable Hence. the probability law for Poisson distribution is 1, 2,3, oe P(X= 7.3.2 Properties of Poisson Distribution 1. It isa discrete probability distribution. 2. nthe number of trials is indefinitely large, ie., n> % pz the probability of success in a single trial is very small, p ~ 0. i.e. Poisson distribution is applicable to ‘rare events’ and hence, also called distribution of rare events. e 4. The probability function for Poisson distribution is P (X = r) = ‘i’ is the only parameter for Poisson distribution. 5. Mean of P.D. with parameter A is 4. (P.T.U. 2010) Proof : Let X ~ P.D. (4) A gx pKaxn- 2 | x=0,1,2,3 ne By def. z= Mean (X)=E(X)= )) x-P(X=3) x20 =e* ace) =e Atha ge =alad Mean =4. 6. Variance of P.D. with parameter A is 1, (P.T.U. 2010, 201 Proof : By def. Var (X) = E (X?)- (E(x)? i x [x(@e-D +3] DY # Pex=x)- (Mean)? =} x? = x=0 x=0yor 5 ame and m= 16 16, which is not possible moby SPs 16 fe en statement Wrong, vrarandom variable x has a : OFSSOn dist ge gx and standard deviation, °°" USHbution such that pg ‘one # «= 2)=9 Plx= 4) +90 P(x = 6), A a= Te ore POT 22)=9P(X=4) +90 P (x= 6) 7 = 3 PO 4 6 7 2 ot 4.99 2.o~ Eight a9 e* +904 os az 4 192 908 9 ‘ 19 90 4 6 2 4 [6 1x2 Ix2x3xq* 1x2x3x%4%5%6 2 4 138 4 ; Lata = 4=32 448 2 t3R-4=0 = @-)@+4=0 © Pe1,-4 a [- #>0} » SD.= Ja=Ji =1 {tumple 5. Suppose that X has Poisson distribution. If P (X = 2) = 2 P (X= 1), then find P (X = 0). (P.T.U. 2017) ile X~P.D. (2) eA BE Ea P(K=x= 5 4 Srey Since P(X=2)= 5 P(X=1) ey (a _4 * 3244-0 © AGA-4)=0 2 AWOAHFRUM MATHEMAT, 4 But A #0, therefore on taking, A= 3, we have e P(X =x) = 4 e 4 P(X=0)= =e 3=0.2636 le Example 6. The number of emergency admission each day to hospital is found to have Poisson distribution with mean 4, Find the probability that on a particular day there will be no emergency admission. (P.T.U. 2015) Sol. Given, Mean =A = 4 Let X be the random variable representing number of emergencies on a particular day. By P. eta _ etar LE LE the required probability = P (X = 0) 4.40 [c Example 7. A car hire firm has two cars which it hires out day by day. The number of demands for a car on each day is distributed as a Poisson distribution with mean 1,5, Calculate the number of days in a year on which (2 neither car is on demand, (if) A car demand is refused. (P.T.U. 2014) Sol. Given, mean =A = 1-5 j Let X be the random variable representing the number of cars in demand out of a maximum of two cars, P(X=x)= =0-0183 e kk Here N = Total frequency = | year = 365 days ‘Therefore, expected number of days in a year, x cars in on demand is S(X =x) =NxP(X=x) 1s Pia G (The expected number of days when no car is on demand is ry 0 =/(X=0)=365 x £5) * P(X=x= + x=0,1,2 = 365 * = 365 * 0.2231 = 81-44 ~ 81 days|STRIBUTIONS 591 0)-P(X=1)] u ses Five eos are tossed 3200 times. What is the probability of getting 5 heads two times 7 wr (P-.U. 2016) | sna 161-43 = 161 days reenable of obtaining five heads in one throw of five coins (a single trial) is cd s - ( i } , assuming that head and tail are equally probable, 1y 1 2h=np=3200%{+) =3200x- _ penshenp () x= 100 erefore, by Poisson distribution, the probability of getting 5 heads ‘’ times is given by 4 Ar _ ¢7100 aggyr k Lk the required probability = P (X= 2) = (== 37=0,1,2,3 ~100 (499)? £100)" = (5000) e719, Eample 9. Find the probability that at the most 5 defective fuses will be found in a box of 200 fuses, if eo that 2 percent of such fuses are defective. fa Hee n=200, oe m=np=200 xe 4 enn = 0183 li, 2 6 i We wish to find the probability of having at most five defective fuses which is same as the probability “eine, 1,2, 3,4 or 5 defective fuses. Required probability = P (0) + P (1) + P (2) + P (3) +P (4) + P(S) 4? 2p | oa I B | F 32, 32, 128) _ gigs _ | 745 8 = 785 | a eery DISTRIBUT she average MuMbeEF Of Persons ‘. 593 jv" . HP pete random variable represen, ICE x It in the eyes inj nite the num Voo000 1 tat rest Yes injury, ber 7 perso Thay © Car Accident ~ yy — A= 10 0-0001 10000 "Out Of a total oF 4000 insured will have ey, we have f" oP.Do a pany 90001 0 000" ——_0- 0001)" = IF hire firm has two cars which it hi apie 13. A car ats which it hires out day to da distil ison dare 'y. The number of demands for a car ah ty iS distributed @ Poisson distribution with mean 1.5, Calculate the Tropenisa of days (j onwhich there is no demand . (@ onwhich demand is refused (eS = 9.2931) j. Let ‘x’ denotes the demand of car on each day. As it is given that demand is distribu givsion with mean ‘m’ = 1.5, me) PK =x) = ee” (.s)* 5 0 Spee 0228 ( P(When demand is refused) = P(X > 2)= 1-P(X S$ 2)= 1 -[PO) + P(1) + PQ) Ly fea? eas! el as? el ir Tz Pi i-[es +e Mase. ()P(when there is no demand) = P(X =0) = 1—e7! [1 + 1.5 + 1.125] = 1 - 0.2231 (3.625) = 0.1913. Ween 14.1F the probability that an individual suffers a bad reaction from a certain injection is 0-001. “be pobabtty that out of 2000 individuals. - ( M*elly 3 individuals will suffer a bad reaction — none wil suffer a bad reaction EU. 2008) {more tha one individual wil suffer (.T.U:2009) (more than two individual wil suffer (PU. 2011)4 JHONICS ABD COMMU O66 gy Pay rcp MATHEMATIC 4 Sol, Here p= 0.001, n= 2000 Je np 2000 * 0-001 © 2 A gt en? a Po) | F | ; [r (i) P(exnetly 3 individual wil suffer bad reaction) 8 = O18 = PG oe y 6 il fe —— = 0535 (ii) P (none will suffer) = P (0) © ante VE ) (ii) P (more than one) = P (2) +P (3) +P J 6 =1-[P (0) +P) = I= az b+2) = 1-39 00-535) 4 ool 22 eer iv) P (more than two) = 1 ~ [P (0) + P(1) + PQ)] = 1 Fp’ An 5 (0-135) =0°325 lte242] Example 15. A product is 0-5 °% defective and is packed in cartoons of 100. What pero more than 3 defective ? Sol. p= The probability that a product is defective = 0.5% 0-5 = 25 0-005 P” T00 n= 100 =n p= 100 (0-005) =0°5 Let X denotes the number of defective products rnd 5) er OS rxene te - Oe k le P (not more than 3 defective) = P(X 3)= P (0) + P (1) + P(2)+ P (3) _ (0-5) 2 8-5) = | (0-5)? e785 | (0-5) * 0:5)" 6 0:5) ee OS Pe E . 0-25 0. os[recoe O38 bi ] -e-so6s +05 + 012s o-e2 125 6 = (06065) (1-640) = 0-9983 (approx) Hence required percentage = 0-9983 x 100 = 99-83%. Se all595, tribution wi n with unit unit mean, mean deviation about mean is (2/e) times (P.T.U. 2015) es Mean = Variance =A = 1, Ax ~ ae ew! 2 PRI gran deviation about mean is gx XDAEIX=W= Yix-persy= ot § | x=0 eta 213! Wehave pee eee Sa (n+ (n+l)! nl (n+)! xt x=0 |. Mean deviation about mean =e -1),f4-1),f14 vi fel-d (deed | =etat p=2 x1 -2 X standard deviation, ample 17. For a Poisson variate with mean ‘m’ show E (X?) =m E(X +1). E(X)=m. ¥l Let X be a Poisson variate with mean ‘m’, i. Since, we know that variance = Mean for P.D. “. Variance =m © EQ)-(EQO)? =m = EQ?)-n? =m wi) © EQ) = m2 +m a=m(mtl) Now, mE (X+1)=m(E0O+1) =m(m+1) iW) From (9 and (if), we get E(X?) = mE(X +1). {Nl 18, The Probability of getting no misprints in a page o| 4ecoains more than 2 misprints ? “Dis the probability of getting nu! P=1~0223=0.777 m= mean no. of errors =P epee es f book is 0.223. what is the probability that mber of misprint in a page of book. = 10.777) = 0.777required probability = P (a page contains more than 2 misprints) =P(X>2) =1-P(Xs2) <=0)+P(X=1)+P(K=2)} Example 19. Fit Poisson distribution to the following and calculate theoretical frequencies Death : 0 1 2 3 4 Frequency : 122 60 15 2 1 (P.T.U. 2007, 2011) Sol. Let the random variable X follows Poisson’s distribution with parameter m. z m= mean of distribution = La = (122).0 + (60).1+(15)2 +(2)3+() 4 ; 200 = 604304644 _ 200 By, Poisson distribution, the probability of having ‘r’ deaths is 0.5 -05 sy PaHn- oem 03) expected frequency of having ‘r’ deaths is SXK=N=NxP(K=n) on taking r= 0, 1, 2,3 and 4, we get r=0; f(e=0)=200x 05 @5)0 °F 0.5)° © 2 250.59 _ r= 15 fe=1)= 200% TE 6124s f= = 200 =0 cuir iting Of pees distribution is 1 a 2 3 a seid 122 61 15 z Di Fh Fira Poisson Distribution to the given data aan 1 2 A 4 pW 6s a 3 1 (P.7.U. 2005) oN 2 ype NEL = 200 renot distribution is given by m = =H _ WO) + (N65) + 2V22)+ HG) + _ ple 5 Tee Ina certain factory turning out razor blades, there is a small chance > for any blade to be “i. The blades are supplied in packets of 10. Use the Poisson distribution to calculate the ms number of packets containing no defective, one defective and wo defective blades "ely ina consignment of 10,000 packets given that °°" = 0.9802. (P.T.U. 2008)ne. wees / 22. (02382 (i) 0-289 on wo.03s (B) 0-08 Oo @ 09-2231 (i) 01913 500, 0.06 ( r (@ 0-0008 (9 10000), i eel 25, (@) 38,376, 182,6,15,03,005 ©) 4 43,2171 ©) 109,142, 92,401 13, 3, 1,0,0,0,0 A @ oe + 109, 66,20,4, 1 (€), 209, 92,20, 3,0 r 7a Normal Distribution Definition : It is the one of the most important continuous probability distrit said to have a normal distribution with parameters 4 (called ‘mean’) and 0? (called ‘variance’) if is probability density function is given by the law 2 F6510) “5” G4) } 1 o fone 2m ‘When a random variable is normally distributed with mean m and standard deviation o, it is customat to write that X is distributed as N(, 07) and is expressed by X ~ N (07). me cx< @,-@ 0.1s FIUUTETONS. we ym gr Normal Varnte iat 2), then 2 XH a2) then Z= Ee ON (ts 91 SA standard normal variate with £2) = 0 and Var(Z) = 1 and we to! hie oiiy density fnetion of standard normal variate 7s given by 1 is piven by : ye he? 2. Ope wcrc snecoresroni 8 distribution function, denoted by (2) is given by: fs : = _} ) Jaan 7 Jer a 1 properties of Normal Distribution (P-T.U. 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2018) (PZ E rie Chief Characteristics of the Normal Distribution and Normal Probability Curve are as follows : 1, isa continuous probability distribution with probability function 1 Se le- Fa? Hy 10" ee jracrce, asthe probability function depends only two factors and «. Therefore, N.D. is based only on two pte mean and S.D. 0, 1. The normal curve is bell shaped and symmetrical about the line x = 4. i.e., when cut along a ‘cal line through curter x = 4, the two halves are identical -e unk (Normal Curve) 4 ‘ ‘The total area under the normal eurve is equal (0 unity. 4 "J royde= “oot 86, sale ex PE 1°2) so = +5 — "3849 = +115) Number of students with more than 14 years = ra a ee = 100 (+1151) = 11-51 = 12 ‘The random variable X is normally distributed with iation 3. Fi psa le3. (OX 215 W XS15 (ios <9 ‘ith mean 9 and standard deviation 3. Find the pool Weare given B= 9 and 0 =3. The standard normal variate Zis Xow, X-9 a ee @ To find P(X 2 15) (P.T.U. 2018) . when X= 15, Z= 2 3 , P(X 2 15)=P(Z=2)=0-5-POsZ<2) =0-5-0-4772 = 0-028 (i) PKS 15)=P (ZS 2)=0-5+P(0SZ 50-2) +5+0-4772 +9772 (ii To find P (0 $ X $9) 9 When X= 0, Z= X=9, Z=—— PSX s9)=P(-35Z50) =P(0 64) = 0.08 4) =008 = Pe>z,)=0.08 50.08 = 0.42 From Normal tables, we get 22 = 1.4 64-4 o Solving (1) and (2), we get = 50, 0 = 10. Example 9. In an examination taken by 500 candidates, the mean and S.D. of marks obtained are 40% and 10%, Assuming Normal distribution find 3 (How many will pass, if 50% is fixed as minimum ? (if) What should be minimum marks required if 350 candidates are to pass ? (if) How many students have scored marks above 60% ? (P.T.U. 2011 Sol. For given normal distribution, we have x= 500, Mean ‘a’ = 0.4 and standard deviation “0” = =14 = wtldo=64 x ‘Now, standard normal variate is given by xy x-04 = wall ool ) (D Here we need to find P(x = 0.5) Here x= 0.5 05-04 _ 0. ve ffom() z= 25204 Ob Fem) Tonvy CE TRIBUTIONS al? pez 05) PZ) M0525 1) = 0.5 -0.3413 = 0.1597 umber of Pass students = $00 (0.1587) = 79.35 = 79 students (appro.) 350 7 wt *" 50071077 oo SDM 07-04 , o or} gor, PEROT =PE>3)=0S~PO 0.6) Here x= 0.6 Zz P(X > 0.6) = P(z> 2) =0.5-P(05. Let X be a normal random variable with mean 10 and standard deviation 4. Determine the Probability. ()P(2 s X s 15) Gi) PX = 7) “ (© The mean weight of 500 male students at a certain college is 65-6 ky and the standard deviation is 10 kg. Assuming that the weights are normally distributed, find how many students weigh ( more than 75+5 kg. (ii) between 55-5 and 75-5 kg.