FUNDAMENTALS OF

STATISTICAL
INFERENCE
DEFINITION OF TERMS
01 INFERENTIAL STATISTICS

02 HYPOTHESIS

03 STANDARD ERROR

04 THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

05 VARIANCE

06 CRITICAL VALUE

07 PROBABILITY
DEFINITION
Inferential statistics is the mathematics and logic of how
this generalization from sample to population can be made.
It usually answer to a question: can we infer the
population’s s characteristics from the sample’s
characteristics?

This consists of generalizing from samples to

populations, performing hypothesis testing,
determining relationships among variables,
and making predictions.
 SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
Example:
Suppose we have a population size N = 5, consisting of ages of five children wh are outpatients in the community
mental health center. The ages are as follows:
6, 8, 10, 12, and 14. The mean of this population is 10 and the variance is

Solution:
Let us draw all possible
sample size n-2 from this
population.
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
We see in this example that, when
sampling is with replacement,
there are 25 possible samples.

Sampling DIstribution of sample

mean: Functional form
The graph has a gradual rise to
the peak and then drops off with
perfect symmetry.
 SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
Sampling Distribution of sample mean:
Now let us compute the mean of our sampling distribution. To do this we add
the 25 sample meands and divide by 25.

Sampling Distribution: Variance

We note that the variance of the

sampling distribution is not eqaul
to the population variance.

It is of interest to observe,
however, that the variance of the
sampling distribution is equal to
the population variance divided by
thesize of the sample used to
obtain the sampling distribution
HYPOTHESES TESTING
PURPOSE
To aid the clinician, researcher, or administrator in reaching a
conclusion concerning a population by examining a sample from that
population.

A hypothesis may be defined simply as a statement about one or more

populations.

The hypothesis is frequently concerned with the parameters of the

populations about which the statement is made.

By means of hypothesis testing one determines whether or not such

statements are compatible with the available data.
TYPES OF HYPOTHESES
Research Hypotheses
the conjecture or supposition that motivates the research.It may be
the result of years of observation on the part of the researcher.
Research hypotheses lead directly to statistical hypotheses.

Statistical Hypotheses
stated in such a way that they may be evaluated by appropriate
statistical techniques.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING STEPS
01 DATA
02 ASSUMPTIONS
03 HYPOTHESES
04 TEST STATISTICS
05 DISTRIBUTION OF TEST STATISTIC
06 DECISION RULE
07 CALCULATION OF TEST STATISTIC
08 STATISTICAL DECISION
09 CONCLUSION
10 P VALUES
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING

The nature of the data different assumptions lead There are two statistical
that form the basis of to modifications of hypotheses involved in
the testing procedures confidence intervals. This hypothesis testing, and
include assumptions about
must be understood, these should be stated
the normality of the
since this determines explicitly. The null
population distribution,
the particular test to be equality of variances, and hypothesis is the
employed independence of samples. hypothesis to be tested

DATA ASSUMPTION HYPOTHESES

 HYPOTHESES
The null hypothesis is sometimes referred to as a hypothesis of no difference,
since it is a statement of agreement with (or no difference from) conditions
presumed to be true in the population of interest. In general, the null hypothesis
is set up for the express purpose of being discredited.

If the testing procedure leads to rejection, we will say that the data at hand are
not compatible with the null hypothesis, but are supportive of some other
hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is a statement of what we will believe is
true if our sample data cause us to reject the null hypothesis.

RULES:When hypotheses are of the type, an indication of equality must appear in

the null hypothesis.
 TEST STATISTICS
the test statistic serves as a decision maker, since the decision to reject or not
to reject the null hypothesis depends on the magnitude of the test statistic.

The general formula for a test statistic:

DISTRIBUTION OF TEST
STATISTICS
It has been pointed out that the key to statistical inference is the sampling
distribution. We are reminded of this again when it becomes necessary to
specify the probability distribution of the test statistic.
DECISION RULE
The values of the test statistic forming the rejection region are those values that are less
likely to occur if the null hypothesis is true, while the values making up the acceptance region
are more likely to occur if the null hypothesis is true.

The decision rule tells us to reject the null hypothesis if the value of the test statistic that we
compute from our sample is one of the values in the rejection region and to not reject the null
hypothesis if the computed value of the test statistic is one of the values in the nonrejection
region.

SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL
The decision as to which values go into the rejection region and which ones go into the
nonrejection region is made on the basis of the desired level of significance, designated by a
(alpha).
Since to reject a true null hypothesis would constitute an error, it seems only reasonable that
we should make the probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis small and, in fact, that is
what is done. The more frequently encountered values of a are .01, .05, and .10.
DECISION RULE
TYPES OF ERRORS
The error committed when a true null hypothesis is rejected is called the type I error. The
type II error is the error committed when a false null hypothesis is not rejected.

Whenever we reject a null hypothesis there is always the concomitant risk of committing a
type I error, rejecting a true null hypothesis.

We make a small, but we generally exercise no control over b, although we know that in most
practical situations it is larger than a.
 CALCULATION OF TEST STATISTIC

From the data contained in the sample we compute a value of the test
statistic and compare it with the rejection and nonrejection regions that
have already been specified.
 STATISTICAL DECISION

The statistical decision consists of rejecting or of not rejecting the null

hypothesis. It is rejected if the computed value of the test statistic falls
in the rejection region, and it is not rejected if the computed value of the
test statistic falls in the nonrejection region.
CONCLUSION

If H0 is rejected, we conclude that HA is true. If H0 is not rejected, we

conclude that H0 may be true.
P VALUES

The p value is a number that tells us how unusual our sample results
are, given that the null hypothesis is true.

A p value is the probability that the computed value of a test

statistic is at least as extreme as a specified value of the test
statistic when the null hypothesis is true. Thus, the p value is the
smallest value of a for which we can reject a null hypothesis.
ONE TAILED AND TWO TAILED
TEST
The test of hypothesis could
be one-tailed or two-tailed as
evidenced by the alternative
hypothesis. If the alternative is
directional, the test is one-
tailed but if the Ha is non-
directional, the test is two-
tailed.
CRITICAL VALUES OF Z AT
VARYING SIGNIFICANCE LEVELS

Significant Level

Test Type
0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01

One-tailed test +/-1.28 +/-1.645 +/-1.96 +/-2.33

Two-tailed test +/-1.645 +/-1.96 +/-2.33 +/-2.58

T-TEST AND Z-TEST
Z TEST
use when the sample is
more than 30

T TEST
use when the sample is not
more than 30
df = n - 1
EXAMPLE
Researchers are interested in the mean age of a certain population.
Let us say that they are asking the following question: Can we
conclude that the mean age of this population is different from 30
years? Based on our knowledge of hypothesis testing, we reply that
they can conclude that the mean age is different from 30 if they can
reject the null hypothesis that the mean is equal to 30.
DATA:The data available to the researchers are the ages of a
simple random sample of 10 individuals drawn from the
population of interest. From this sample a mean of "x 1⁄4 27 has
been computed.
ASSUMPTION:Let us also assume that the population has a known
variance of 20
THANK'S FOR
WATCHING