Revival of Afghan Taliban (TTA)
In 2001-02 the TTP govt was toppled down. 1000s of Taliban being killed or captured many
more took refuge in the hilly areas of Afghanistan and infiltrated into the tribal belt of
Pakistan. Bush declared victory in 2002 against Al-Qaida and TTA but the victor was short
lived as the irreversible revival of Afghan Taliban began in 2004 onwards that resulted in
the establishment of TTA govt now many challenges faced by TTA govt to deal with.
Revival of TTA
1 From 2004-14 TTA expanded their attacks across the Pashtun belt of Afghanistan by War
Fighting tech---guerilla war--- a. Hide- hit and run b. use of suicide bombing c. Use of IED
blasts they also expanded attacks even to the capital Kabul. Attacks were made against US
troops, NATO, ISAF—international security Assistance Force also fought against ASF Afghan
security forces
2. 2014 and the draw down date celebrated as a victory by TTA in dec 31st 2014 majority of
international troops pulled out from Afghanistan and 91000 US troops pulled out and 14000
left behind while 65000 NATO pulled out and 15000 left behind and almost all the non-
NATO troops like Australia, Jordon, UAE, etc pulled out. this major pullout was celebrated by
Afghan Taliban as their victory. It is an international military rule. when a state army fails to
defeat a guerilla. it is the victory of guerilla that's exactly happened in Afghanistan after
decade long war US/NATO/ ISAF failed to defeat Taliban guerilla.
3. Doha Deal and the revival of TTA. Doha deal signed in 2020. US agreed on release on
Taliban prisoners for the first time. US agreed on complete pullout from Afghanistan first
time which was executed in august 2021 in return TTA guaranteed not to fight power share
formula would be decided with Ashraf Govt plus TTA guaranteed that Afghan land would
not be used for attacks against US and its allies in future. crystal clear that the terms and
condition of the deal overwhelmingly in favour of TTA that TTA would topple down Ghani
govt and establish their rule.
4. TTA defeated ASF and established their govt last one year 2020-21 was crucial. TTA and
Ghani govt failed to reach a consensus TTA wanted the release of all the Taliban prisoners
and Ghani govt not ready for that. TTA want to established a non-elected sharia based and
also have national feature having representatives from all stake holders. While Ghani want
TTA to participate in elections and become the part of the govt disagreement resultantly
war continued and last three months June, July and august were decisive. 80% of areas
captured by TTA without fighting. Kabul was captured without a bullet being fired. Majority
of the northern areas also came in the control of TTA.
5. Establishment of TTA govt and a transitional govt was established headed by a deputy PM
accompanied by key ministers like FM , Defence Minister, Finance Minister, interior minister
etc. Governors were appointed in all 23 provinces. This whole set up is led by supreme
leader of TTA.
Challenges ahead
1. Internal security of the country is at stake from 2001-21. TTA were very successful as
a guerilla fighters against the govt and international troops but now their role has
changed to become the government from a non-state actor now it their
responsibility to ensure the writ of the state in Afghanistan which is challenged by
ISKP (Islamic state of Khurasan province). 13 provinces having presence, attack on
shia population, TTA, state infrastructure. Secondly, the War lords in the North of
the country a potential threat as they have made alliance to fight against the TTA
govt.
2. The threat to the governmental structure in Afghanistan. first of all the divide within
the ranks of TTA top leadership is moderate. they want internal, regional and global
acceptability of their govt and for that TTA has to ensure security, make sure that
Afghan land is not used as a launching pad for terrorist attacks against the
neighbours, fundamental rights, only then their govt may get support. They are from
the elite but in minority. On the other hand majority of TTA members are
conservative. They believe that they fought 2 decades long jihad not for the sake of
appeasing the world rather to enforce the strict enforcement of Sharia. Secondly the
TTA govt faces the lack of support from the non-Pashtun population like Tajik 27% ,
Hazara 18%, Uzbek 7%. TTA are mainly Pashtun and thus have lesser popularity
among the non-Pashtuns. therefore armed resistance in Tajiks, Uzbek and Hazara
against TTA govt on the rise. Thirdly, the acceptability of TTA govt among Pashtuns
is also less because majority of Pashtuns are not clergy but majority of people are
silently because of the fear of use of force by TTA govt.
3. Socio-Economic crises faced by Afghanistan. Afghan economy is persistently weak
and was always dependent on US/NATO/ISAF support. While more than 80% of
budget arrived from these countries but after US/NATO pullout in 2021 all the
financial support stopped. Furthermore, dollar reserves in state bank of Afghanistan
were frozen by US which were above 7 billion dollars. Majority of the foreign and
even local investors pulled out from Afghanistan because of the fear of use of force
by TTA govt. and the economic crises got further severed. Above that Pakistan sent
back more than 50000 afghanis back to their country another burden for TTA govt.
Resultantly economic crises has led to massive social crises e.g. dangerous shortage
of food in Afghanistan, above that harsh weather that TTA govt have to deal with.
4. Relations with the neighbours getting increasing tensed. Relations with the
neighbours mostly dependent on the security factor. ISKP a security threat not only
to Afghanistan but also to the neighbours. ISKP has established nexus with IMU from
Central Asia, ETIM from Xinjiang province of China, Jundallah from Iran, TTP from
nexus. challenge the internal security situation of all the neighbours. Furthermore
Afghan land being used as a launching pad for terrorist attack against the
neighbours. majority of the attacks against Pak. Islamabad --Kabul tension mainly
because of TTP and ISKP and the use of Afghan land as a launching pad for terrorist
attacks in Pakistan. TTA govt taking no initiatives against TTP. furthermore, ISKP
responsible for attacks not only in Pakistan but also Iran carried out from
Afghanistan. Tension with the neighbours is on the rise. Increasing tension with
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan of Ammu river as Afghan Taliban making one of the longest
canal in the region divert the flow of the river causing water shortage in the two
countries. Also have water conflict with Iran for Helmand river. Stable govt needs an
internal acceptability and then of the neighbours and the TTA govt doesn't have the
both.
5. Diplomatic acceptability of TTA govt a major challenge. First of all not a single
neighbouring country has recognized Afghan Taliban govt. Not a single Muslim
country recognized TTA govt. US/NATO have severe relations with Afghan Taliban
govt. because TTA defeated US/NATO in Afghanistan. TTA hasn't controlled ISKP and
Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. In Doha deal 2020 TTA promised not allow Al Qaida and
ISKP on Afghan soil but Al-Qaida chief Mr Zawahri was killed in a drone strike in
Kabul in 2022. Thirdly Afghan Taliban are making extreme coercion against female
and minorities e.g. restriction on education and job and mobility of women, attacks
on minorities. Rare chance of the west normalizing their relations with TTA govt in
the foreseeable future.
Reasons for the revival of TTA
1. Afghan Taliban continued exploiting the Jihadist ideology new people were attracted
to TTA ranks and fight against US/NATO on the basis of jihadist ideology. Afghanistan
is a Muslim country attacked by infidels ---US/NATO. Therefore Jihad is a compulsion
for every Muslim. In spite of 1000s of Taliban being killed or captured yet again they
never felt short of human resources –fighters.
2. Terrain and culture of Afghanistan. 67% plus of Afghan land is based on mountains,
full of forest and full of caves made by Afghan mujahideen in the 1980s with US help.
Culturally, Afghanis never peacefully coexisted with the invader whether Alexander,
Mongols, Russian, Britishers or now US/NATO a portion of society continued fighting
till the invader left the country.
3. Blunders made by US in Afghanistan. First of all ,the achievements made by US in
Afghanistan were not consolidated yet when US opened in new war zone in Iraq
means US had to fight a two front war. Resultantly ,US focus on Afghanistan declined
gave TTA an opportunity to revive. US antagonized Pakistan again and again like
Sallala check post incident. US martyred 26 soldiers of Pakistan. Pakistan closed the
NATO supply line for more than 7 months gave opportunity for TTA to get stronger.
Furthermore, China, Russia and Iran have always been skeptical regarding US military
presence in Afghanistan. US /NATO are not here to defeat TTA rather they want to
contain Russia, China and Iran by keeping stronger military presence in Afghanistan.
US failed to win the confidence of the neighbours of Afghanistan.
Recommendations to overcome challenges
TTA top priority is to make peace in Afghanistan. It must defeat ISKP in Afghanistan and
protect the Shia population only then they could win the support of Hazara -Shia
population. chances of Peace in country would increase. automatically chance for the revival
of economy. Secondly, to revive the economy TTA govt are taking initiatives like the
construction of canals in order to increase the agriculture yield of Afghanistan. 2030
Afghanistan would export food which would be a revolutionary change. The strength of
Afghanistan is transit facility. Afghanistan is Heart of Asia as Central Asia--south Asia--East
Asia are connected by Afghanistan. The original strength of Afghanistan in the past was
transit trade. Now too TTA must work for transit trade facilitation for all the neighbours.
This could outrightly turn around the socio - economic future of Afghanistan. Thirdly, TTA
govt need to address the concerns of the neighbours. Afghan land must not be used against
Pakistan and the rest. If TTA deliver on this boost for it to enhance relations with Pak and
other neighbours. Fourthly, TTA govt must deliver on human rights, control the Capital
punishment and give due protection to minority\protect and give facilities to woman to
pursue their rights.
