climate

Review
The Agro-Meteorological Caused Famines as an Evolutionary
Factor in the Formation of Civilisation and History:
Representative Cases in Europe
Ioannis Charalampopoulos * and Fotoula Droulia

Laboratory of General and Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Crop Science, Agricultural University of
Athens, 11855 Athens, Greece; fanid@aua.gr
* Correspondence: icharalamp@aua.gr; Tel.: +30-2105-294-234

Abstract: Throughout history, food adequacy has been one of the most critical parameters for the
survival of human societies. The prevailing atmospheric conditions have always been recognised
as the primary and most uncontrolled factors that determine crop production, both quantitatively
and qualitatively. However, this is only a part of the effects chain. In order to assess the magnitude
of the potential cultural impacts of weather changes in a region, it is crucial to comprehend the
underlying mechanism of successive consequences that relate the proximate causes, which in our
case are the adverse Agro-Meteorological Conditions (AMC), to their effects on society. The present
study focuses on the analysis of the impacts’ mechanism on human societies. Moreover, several
characteristic agro-meteorological events that have led to significant changes in European civilisation
are presented as case studies. The results highlight the linkage between weather and its impact
on history evolution based on Agro-Meteorological Famine (AMF). The proposed concept and its
analysis by the schematic presentation are in corroboration with the documented historical events of
European history. Moreover, the presented connections between weather, agricultural production,



and society revealed the significant contribution of the short-term adverse weather conditions on the


mechanism of the human civilisation evolution.
Citation: Charalampopoulos, I.;
Droulia, F. The Agro-Meteorological Keywords: weather impacts; atmospheric conditions; food; civilisation; history; famine
Caused Famines as an Evolutionary
Factor in the Formation of Civilisation
and History: Representative Cases in
Europe. Climate 2021, 9, 5.
1. Introduction
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9010005
Civilisation is causally linked to food production. It was when organised groups of
Received: 16 November 2020 people remained at a location for a prolonged period of time, thus developing their first
Accepted: 28 December 2020 settlements, when the agricultural activity began to appear in the historical proscenium [1].
Published: 31 December 2020 This development enabled humans to store food, to defend themselves from enemies,
and in general, to create civilisations resembling modern cultures in their fundamental
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neu- structures [1,2]. As long as the technology was unable to sustain food and support its
tral with regard to jurisdictional clai- rapid transportation from places of food sufficiency to places of food shortage, sustainable
ms in published maps and institutio- food production was essential for the survival of the societal groups. Agricultural produc-
nal affiliations. tion was directly linked to the weather conditions, given that water availability, thermal
resources for the production, and the atmospheric environment could not be adequately
regulated by man [3]. The above may be a geographical determinism’s approach on human
evolution [1–3].
Copyright: © 2020 by the authors. Li-
censee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
Through their direct and indirect effect on food adequacy [4–6], the Agro-Meteorological
This article is an open access article
Conditions (AMC) form a determining factor for the stability and peaceful coexistence in an
distributed under the terms and con-
area. Several references, so far, involve the effects of climate on the prosperity or the decline
ditions of the Creative Commons At- of civilisations. It seems that the AMC, and principally their abrupt changes constitute a
tribution (CC BY) license (https:// non-anthropogenic parameter in the shaping of history [7–9].
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).

Climate 2021, 9, 5. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9010005 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/climate

Climate 2021, 9, 5 2 of 14

However, the impact of agro-meteorological conditions as a determining parameter

of social transformations, conflicts, epidemics, and alterations in both civilisation and
historical evolution has not been sufficiently investigated [9,10].
Famine has been studied in an interdisciplinary manner, and extensive research has
been conducted from an economical, sociological, climatological, and political point of
view [8–16]. The nature of the differentiation between each case of famine lies on its
determination by numerous factors related to the social structure and organisation, the
economy, the human institutions, the technology, the environment, and so on.
Famine has always resulted in high mortality and the destruction of the pre-famine
social structure, thus resulting in radical alterations in the livelihood of the survivors.
Furthermore, famine may be progressively devastating, but it also generates the necessity
for developments through the population’s adaptation. The phenomenon of famine may
be considered as comparable to war in terms of its destructiveness, while the reality that
arises after its cessation is of similar significance to war [17–19].
Even today, fundamental queries concerning the phenomenon of famine have not yet
been resolved. Slavin [20] points out that “Climate and environment do play a pronounced
role in human societies, and especially in the pre/non-Industrial world, but their impact
often tends to be exaggerated” and considers that the human institutions and the culture
of a region are of great importance. However, he concludes that climate and nature are
indeed the first elements in a perplexing chain of factors that lead to famine. Nevertheless,
is the famine an outcome of adverse climatic conditions or even an outcome of a short
period of 2–3 successive years with abnormal weather that may trigger the mechanism of
local or regional-scale famine?
Engler [21] developed the famine vulnerability analysis model (FVAM) to achieve a
more comprehensive approach by involving all the factors that generate famine. He sug-
gests the distinction between social vulnerability (SV) and the environmental vulnerability
(EV) factors and considers as initiating drivers the climate, the political failure, the wars,
and the microbial shocks. Subsequently, he includes in the model the coping capacity and
the adaptation phase. Engler’s approach (FVAM) is integrated and focuses on the factors
that primarily prevailed the onset of famine. Both Engler [21] and other scientists [12,22–26]
who have studied famines underline that the scientific research on this particular field is of
great significance, given that it enriches our knowledge on the course of human civilisation,
the evolution of history, while it also offers us the analysis tools to manage future crises of
food shortage.
Studies so far often refer to climate and principally to the abrupt changes of the climatic
factors. However, scientists seem to realise these variations as a rapid drop or increase in
temperature, or as changes in rainfall that cause floods or drought [27–29]. However, they do
not proceed to a more extensive analysis in order to describe the simultaneous multiple effects
of the atmospheric parameters on plant and animal production as well as everyday life.
For example, a sudden drop or increase in temperature can cause stress in a crop
or in the livestock, but it will also engender uncontrollable stress on the grower. The
“health” status of the harvest and the grower will deteriorate simultaneously, thus forming
a situation that may have a cumulative effect on the reduction of production. In addition,
variations of the same parameter, such as humidity, may cause considerable damages to a
crop, by preventing, for example, pollination and by enhancing the ability of a pathogen
for rapid spreading.
The AMC play a significant role in creating the circumstances that will lead to famine
since they concurrently affect the nutrition resources, namely agriculture in the broadest
sense, but also the grower and the society.
The aim of this study is the presentation of the interaction mechanism between AMC
and civilisation by focusing on European historical facts. For this purpose, systematic
research of historical events was implemented, in which the influence of weather conditions
on civilisation was apparent. This research was further supplemented by representative
descriptions involving the relations between AMC and characteristic aspects of civilisation.
Climate 2021, 9, 5 3 of 14

2. The Agro-Meteorological Conditions as a Civilisation’s Driving Force

Adverse atmospheric conditions that evolve on a small spatiotemporal scale during
plant development determine the course of agricultural production and therefore food
production. In situations where food availability is highly vulnerable, famine seems likely
to occur. In turn, famine triggers the gradual disorganisation and degradation of the
family and society primarily by altering the physiological and psychological nature of
the individual. The societal consequences during famine incidents caused by the adverse
weather stimulate chain reaction mechanisms that are accompanied by important events
that influence civilisation evolution and shape history.

2.1. The Agro-Meteorological Conditions in the Famine Mechanism

Scientists have been focusing on the possible effects of climate change on human
civilisation for decades. The scientific community explores climate change, both spatially
and temporally, while attempts have been made on the assessment of its impacts on vari-
ous areas of human activity [30–32]. Great scientific concernment lays in improving the
forecasting of climatic conditions that will prevail in the forthcoming decades, considering
various scenarios on the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions [33,34]. Furthermore,
significant efforts in investigating the impact of historical climate variation on human his-
tory have been achieved by using conventional and contemporary techniques in the fields
of archaeology, palaeontology, and anthropology [7,35–37]. The study of climate, typically
described as the average state of the atmosphere recorded over prolonged periods (≥30
years), can shed light on significant events, yet on the dramatic and extensive alterations in
both the natural and anthropogenic environment. However, research on a climatic scale
basis cannot provide answers concerning events or situations that have evolved during
smaller spatiotemporal scales.
In order to highlight the importance and effects of weather on the formation of civilisa-
tion, the relation between weather conditions and food production must be clarified. After
the development of agriculture and animal husbandry, food resources of the inhabitants in
the historical past consisted mainly of neighbouring crops and livestock. The ability for
processing was negligible, and food was only preserved by curing, salting, or smoking
techniques or rarely by ice storage if the ice was readily available [38,39]. So, the food
production and supplying chain was fragile, and this high vulnerability was a matter of
life and death in a local or national scale. The most obvious and known causes of famine
were conflicts, natural disasters, or plagues [38–41]. Nevertheless, when we focus closely,
we may reveal another subcutaneous factor: the short-term atmospheric conditions.
Agro-meteorology constitutes a science relevant to crop production because it mainly
deals with the interactions between meteorological and hydrological factors on the one
hand and agriculture, in the broadest sense including horticulture, animal husbandry,
and forestry, on the other [42,43]. As depicted in the flowchart (Figure 1), weather affects
cultivation both directly and indirectly. The direct effects result as a consequence of the
atmospheric elements’ contact with the cultivation, fundamentally referring to the effects
of precipitation (heavy and/or prolonged rainfall, hail and snow), extreme temperature,
and increased wind speed. Adverse weather may cause varying degrees of destruction
and reduction of agricultural production, affecting thus, food availability in local societies.
Weather conditions are also highly responsible for the development of phytopathology
(pests), resulting in significant yield reductions [9,11,44–47].
The abnormal increase or decrease in temperature is mainly reported in most studies
where reference is made to the effects of climate change. However, the crops are sensitive
not only to the extreme values of the cardinal parameter (e.g., temperature) but also to their
temporal distribution and to their thresholds. Therefore, an area’s climatic suitability is
estimated by cumulative thermal parameters such as the Growing Degree Days (GDD), the
Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR), the number of days with extreme cold, etc. [43,46].
 Climate 2021, 9, 5 4 of 14
Climate 2021, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 14

Figure 1. Flowchart
Figure depicting
1. Flowchart depictingthe
thelinkage betweenweather,
linkage between weather, crops,
crops, food
food production,
production, and society.
and society.

Furthermore,
The abnormal cropsincreaseare or
notdecrease
only affected by individual
in temperature is atmospheric
mainly reported parameters
in most butstudies
where reference is made to the effects of climate change. However, the crops are pa-
also by the parameters’ interactions. Thus, the individual knowledge of a single sensitive
rameter’s fluctuations (e.g., the temperature’s increase) is not sufficient
not only to the extreme values of the cardinal parameter (e.g., temperature) but also to enough, but the
integrated information on additional parameters that determine plant growth (e.g., solar
their temporal distribution and to their thresholds. Therefore, an area’s climatic suitability
radiation, humidity, wind speed, etc.) is substantial [44,48].
is estimated
Other by cumulative
phenomena, suchthermal parameters
as volcanic such
eruptions, areasmentioned
the Growing Degree Daysin(GDD),
as determinative
themany
Diurnal cases where the causes of starvation are being investigated. Through cold,
Temperature Range (DTR), the number of days with extreme etc. [43,46].
the history
Furthermore,
of famines, crops are geophysical
these ubiquitous not only affected by individual
phenomena reduced solar atmospheric parameters but
radiation drastically,
also by theinparameters’
resulting the significant interactions.
reduction ofThus, the individual
crop production knowledge
[7,30,46,49,50]. So, itofisaonce
single parame-
again
demonstrated that the cause of famine could be the abnormal variation of
ter’s fluctuations (e.g., the temperature’s increase) is not sufficient enough, but the inte-the existing AMC.
It is possible
grated that the
information onrequired
additionalcorrelation between
parameters thatstarvation
determine dueplant
to reduced
growth agricultural
(e.g., solar ra-
production and weather conditions has falsely
diation, humidity, wind speed, etc.) is substantial [44,48]. not been implemented, given that the
estimation of the weather conditions prevailing centuries ago on specific days is difficult
Other phenomena, such as volcanic eruptions, are mentioned as determinative in
and most likely inaccurate.
many cases where theofcauses
The coexistence of starvation
crop damage are to
attributed being
bothinvestigated.
the direct andThrough the history
indirect effects of of
famines, these ubiquitous geophysical phenomena reduced solar radiation
weather or the successive development of the aforementioned effects is not uncommon [43,48]. drastically, re-
sulting in the significant
Crop damaging reductionmay
weather conditions of crop production
also put pressure on [7,30,46,49,50]. So, itThermal
the grower’s health. is once again
demonstrated
stress (either generated from a cold or hot environment) reduces productivity, primarilythe
that the cause of famine could be the abnormal variation of when existing
AMC. It is possible that the required correlation between starvation due to reduced agri-
cultural production and weather conditions has falsely not been implemented, given that
the estimation of the weather conditions prevailing centuries ago on specific days is diffi-
cult and most likely inaccurate.
Climate 2021, 9, 5 5 of 14

activity is performed outdoors [51–53]. If it is further assumed that habiliments in the past
did not provide the grower with their contemporary protection potential, then the possibility
of the enhancement of the environment’s harmful effects was likely to occur.
At the same time, the meteorological conditions are directly and indirectly related
to the spreading of diseases (pests). More and more studies from different scientific
fields reveal that the epidemiology of hazardous diseases depends mostly on the atmo-
spheric parameters (e.g., temperature, humidity, rainfall) as they determine the staying
of people indoors (for their heating or cooling) as well as the viability of pathogens on
surfaces [51–55]. In times when medical science had not been developed, and therefore
effective action in the absence of vaccines and effective drugs was impossible, public health
was clearly exposed to the meteorological conditions [1,9,49].
Another process of influence of meteorological conditions on food production is
through the psychological state of the grower. Adverse weather conditions were often
thought to be the result of the God’s punishment. A sharp drop in temperature or an
unusually dry period at times when no sciences had evolved was often interpreted as a bad
omen. The psychological and mental state formed after or during an extreme weather event
triggered the process for reduced productivity, while it also created insecurity. According to
most research findings, meteorological conditions can directly affect a person’s psychology,
his emotional state, and judgment, while in some cases, they have been shown to affect
the severity and frequency of crimes [56–59]. Societies characterised by high levels of
illiteracy had not developed medical sciences or other fundamental scientific fields such as
geotechnology. Thus, nature in the minds of the people often expressed the “wrath” of the
Gods, and any unusual change in the weather parameters was a direct and indirect cause
for the reduction in food production.
All the above mechanisms, which are triggered by the adverse weather conditions,
may result in a severe reduction of agricultural productivity. So, if this limited food
production is far below the crucial level of the demand, there is an Agro-Meteorological
caused Famine (AMF). This famine is triggered by the short-term atmospheric disturbances
that affect directly and indirectly the agricultural yield, in contrast with other types of
famine caused by conflicts, natural disasters, or the economy’s failure.

2.2. The Agro-Meteorological Famine (AMF) and Society

The root of the progressive disorganisation and deterioration of the family and society,
and thus the evolution of civilisation, lies in the psychosocial nature of the effects on
individuals from famines, which are often triggered by the adverse environment. Figure 2
briefly illustrates the personal and societal impacts of famine. The impact on individuals is
compounded by apathy, irritability, depression, lack of initiative, decreased libido, dulling
of emotions, and low concentration [60,61]. The dramatic alteration of personality and
human mentality are experimentally confirmed effects of the hunger that precede the
biological exhaustion at the early stages when all human energy and ingenuity focuses on
the search for food [61]. Vivid descriptions of the social consequences of famine refer to
gradual behavioural changes. Initially, altruistic behaviour [62], solidarity, and preferential
concern for the most vulnerable can be seen among kinship groups or friends [63].
On the contrary, as the famine crisis intensifies, social degradation phenomena begin to
be distinguished. Deterioration of the society is reflected by the typical increase in the self-
centred “survival of the fittest” antisocial behaviour [60], which focuses solely on personal
survival, while human dignity and the sense of basic family bonding is progressively
eliminated. The social impacts of family breakdown include the increasing disintegration
of social structure, lack of cooperation between sufferers and lawlessness (e.g., thefts of food
by individuals, plundering by groups, exploitation), peaking to hideous social sequences
(e.g., children abductions, murder, slavery, cannibalism, murder cannibalism) as famine
reaches its later stages [60,62–64].
Climate 2021, 9, 5 6 of 14
Climate 2021, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 14

Figure
Figure 2.
2. The
The impacts
impacts of
of Agro-Meteorological
Agro-Meteorological Famine
Famine (AMF)
(AMF) on individuals and
on individuals and society.
society.

On the contrary, as the famine crisis intensifies, social degradation phenomena begin
2.3.beAgro-Meteorological
to Conditions and
distinguished. Deterioration the society
of the SocietalisChain Reaction
reflected by the typical increase in the
Food production
self-centred “survival of losses inevitably
the fittest” lead tobehaviour
antisocial the qualitative and quantitative
[60], which focuses solelydecline in
on per-
nutrition,
sonal thus impacting
survival, while human directly on the
dignity andsurvival
the sense of of
communities
basic family and therefore
bonding procure
is progres-
internal
sively unrest andThe
eliminated. thesocial
deterioration
impacts of public
family health [17,46,47,64,65].
breakdown include theThe search for
increasing food
disinte-
in neighbouring
gration of social areas can lead
structure, lack to
ofsocial strife orbetween
cooperation even war conflictsand
sufferers andlawlessness
consequently to
(e.g.,
excessofmortality
thefts [8,47,66]. If there
food by individuals, is a great
plundering by reduction in food availability,
groups, exploitation), peaking then famineso-
to hideous is
likely
cial to occur.(e.g., children abductions, murder, slavery, cannibalism, murder cannibal-
sequences
ism) asIn famine
general,reaches
the deterioration of public
its later stages health or the loss of human lives, due to both
[60,62–64].
conflicts and famine, create the lack of manpower that plays an indispensable part in the
implementation
2.3. of agricultural
Agro-Meteorological Conditionsactivity
and the [67–69]. As such,
Societal Chain problematic food production
Reaction
may Foodresult, even if the weather conditions are more favourable
production losses inevitably lead to the qualitative and quantitative or even optimised
decline in
in
subsequent years.
nutrition, thus impacting directly on the survival of communities and therefore procure
Adverse weather conditions can simultaneously affect transportation and the com-
internal unrest and the deterioration of public health [17,46,47,64,65]. The search for food
munity. That is because the atmospheric conditions that have led to the direct or indirect
in neighbouring areas can lead to social strife or even war conflicts and consequently to
food reduction may impede on food transportation between neighbouring areas (through
excess mortality [8,47,66]. If there is a great reduction in food availability, then famine is
the destruction of infrastructure) or may cause high mortality in the community such as
likely to occur.
prolonged extreme temperatures and floods [3,15,60,70].
In general, the deterioration of public health or the loss of human lives, due to both
Figure 3 represents the characteristic routine that briefly describes the linkage between
conflicts and famine, create the lack of manpower that plays an indispensable part in the
the unfavourable environment and irreversible situations that ultimately affect civilisation
implementation of agricultural activity [67–69]. As such, problematic food production
evolution and may lead to events sometimes designated as turning points in history. More
may result, even if the weather conditions are more favourable or even optimised in sub-
specifically, the direct crop damage due to the adverse AMC may result in reduced food
sequent years.
production and therefore, food shortage. Food deficiency and deprivation fundamentally
triggerAdverse weather conditions
the socio-economic processescanthat
simultaneously
may regenerate affect transportation
a new cycle of foodand the com-
production
munity. That is because the atmospheric conditions that have led to the
declination, thus resulting in the accumulated lack of food. In general, when institutions direct or indirect
food reduction may impede on food transportation between neighbouring
and technology do not allow the long-term storage of food, but also its rapid transportation areas (through
the
anddestruction
therefore theofprovisioning
infrastructure) or consumers,
of the may cause high mortality
changes in the fuel
in adequacy community such as
social insecurity
prolonged extreme
and unrest [1,39,40]. temperatures and floods [3,15,60,70].
Figure 3 represents the characteristic routine that briefly describes the linkage be-
tween the unfavourable environment and irreversible situations that ultimately affect civ-
ilisation evolution and may lead to events sometimes designated as turning points in his-
tory. More specifically, the direct crop damage due to the adverse AMC may result in
reduced food production and therefore, food shortage. Food deficiency and deprivation
fundamentally trigger the socio-economic processes that may regenerate a new cycle of
food production declination, thus resulting in the accumulated lack of food. In general,
Climate 2021, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 14

Climate 2021, 9, 5 when institutions and technology do not allow the long-term storage of food, but also
7 of its
14
rapid transportation and therefore the provisioning of the consumers, changes in ade-
quacy fuel social insecurity and unrest [1,39,40].

Figure 3.
Figure 3. Flowchart
Flowchart of
of the
the linkage
linkage between
between agro-meteorological
agro-meteorological conditions,
conditions, food
food shortage,
shortage, and
and the
the consequences
consequences of
of food
food
shortage.
shortage.

Reduction of
Reduction of the
theavailable
availablefood foodmay
maylead to to
lead starvation
starvationdirectly, thus
directly, resulting
thus in nu-
resulting in
merous deaths or probably in social unrest. Depending on the appropriate
numerous deaths or probably in social unrest. Depending on the appropriate management management
and the capability for controlling the disorder, there there may
may bebe political
political instability
instability oror even
even
manifestation, and in some cases, the violent overthrow of a prevailing
revolution manifestation, prevailing regime.
Another collective impact of food shortage is the search for resources resources outside
outside the the affected
affected
and eventually,
area and eventually,the theinitiation
initiationofof warfare
warfare with
with thethe neighbouring
neighbouring areas.
areas. TheThe incentive
incentive for
for famished
the the famished to search
to search for food
for food leadsleads to significant
to significant migration
migration and inevitably
and inevitably to demo-
to demographic
graphic problems
problems involving involving a considerable
a considerable populationpopulation
declinedecline
but also butthe
alsoredistribution
the redistributionand
and restructuring
restructuring of theofremaining
the remaining population
population in an In
in an area. area.
mostIn cases,
most cases,
manpower manpower inad-
inadequacy
is also typical
equacy and contributes
is also typical and contributesto thetoexacerbation
the exacerbation of the area’s
of the reduced
area’s reduced productivity
productiv-
potential [2,7,11,24,38,60,71,72].
ity potential [2,7,11,24,38,60,71,72].
Consequently, AMC are are potentially
potentially destructive
destructive environmental
environmental components consid-
ering that they may engender multiple adverse developments, as food inadequacy, in in aa
community. The Thelinkages
linkagesdepicted
depictedinin the flowchart (Figure 2) are evidenced
the flowchart (Figure 2) are evidenced in many his- in many
historical cases
torical cases thatthat
have have
beenbeen recorded
recorded in Europe,
in Europe, therefore
therefore confirming
confirming the hypothesis
the hypothesis that
that weather
weather conditions
conditions and impact
and their their impact
on crops on may
cropslead
maytolead to or influence
or influence significant
significant histori-
historical
cal eventsevents thatshape
that may may shape the evolution
the evolution of civilisation.
of civilisation. Scientists
Scientists havehave linked
linked several
several pa-
parameters of a region’s social, technological, and institutional status to its ability
rameters of a region's social, technological, and institutional status to its ability to obviate to obviate
famine
famine oror quickly
quickly recover
recover from
from itit [20,21,73].
[20,21,73].
3. Selected Agro-Meteorological Famine Incidents in European History
3. Selected Agro-Meteorological Famine Incidents in European History
Over the years, experts representing diverse scientific fields discover new facts con-
Over the years, experts representing diverse scientific fields discover new facts con-
cerning the everyday life of citizens, the economy, the adequacy of commodities, and the
cerning the everyday life of citizens, the economy, the adequacy of commodities, and the
political and social status during adverse weather conditions. Concurrently, the continuous
political and social status during adverse weather conditions. Concurrently, the continu-
enrichment of scientific knowledge supports the study of the weather conditions occurring
ous enrichment of scientific knowledge supports the study of the weather conditions oc-
in the past and even during periods preceding the invention of meteorological instruments.
curring in the past and even during periods preceding the invention of meteorological
The comparative study of scientific data can outline or confirm the mechanisms linking
instruments. The comparative study of scientific data can outline or confirm the mecha-
AMC and crop development to food production and to the impacts of food shortages on
nisms linking AMC and crop development to food production and to the impacts of food
society and civilisation.
shortages on society and civilisation.
Climate 2021, 9, 5 8 of 14

3.1. The “Great Famine” of 1315 AD

During the summer of 1315, extreme meteorological conditions consisting of unusually
low temperatures and continuous rainfall prevailed in almost all over Europe [22]. The
continuous rainfalls began in England in 1314 AD and lasted for over ten months, while
during July and August, the rains were heavy and incessant. Crops were completely
destroyed by the consequent floods, and agricultural production was minimised. The
intolerable hunger led to the consumption of inappropriate food (e.g., horses, dogs, cats,
and vermin), while cannibalism was also evident. Furthermore, as the result of starvation,
corpses filled the streets, while prisons were overcrowded due to the intense lawlessness.
In addition to the abundant rainfall of the summer of 1315, unusually low temperatures
were recorded in Ireland and France, while the extremely cold environment extended up
to Poland and Estonia [74]. The severe cold and high rainfall recorded for two consecutive
years (1315–1317 AD) resulted in the severe damage or the destruction of crops and thus
in the sharp drop of the plant and livestock production. During the famine, it appeared
that there were no commodities that could cover even part of the nutritional needs of
the inhabitants. The food market had collapsed as a result of the dearth but also due
to the rapid rise in the prices of all kinds of foodstuffs. These circumstances lead to the
exhaustion of food reserves and finally to the occurrence of famine, which was historically
termed as the “Great Famine of 1315–1317”. The extensive malnutrition successively led to
the deterioration of public health and thus to a significant increase in mortality, reducing
Europe’s population by approximately 10% in the forthcoming years. This tragic reality
motivated great social turmoil and increased crime. Many researchers consider the ensuing
Hundred Years’ War (1337–1453) as the outcome of this particular famine. Finally, this
famine led societies and governments to seriously consider storing more food in order to
avoid or reduce the consequences of future incidents of reduced productivity [19,21,69].

3.2. The Northern European Famine (1693–97 AD)

Extreme cold during several consecutive years (1693–1697) also prevailed in northern
Europe and especially in northern England and southern Scandinavia. It is characteristic
that much of Scotland was covered in ice for an unusually long time. The progressive
destruction of crops and the reduction of agricultural production resulted in significant
food shortages and in the origination of famine, which accounted for high mortality rates.
During this period, several historical records found in northern Europe (e.g., Estonia, Fin-
land, Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, etc.) document the absence of crop production and
specifically the inability of annual crops and fruit trees to produce [75,76]. So widespread
was the famine that it led to massive deaths. According to documentations, whole families
perished, rendering, thus, their farms abandoned and unexploited. In addition to the
collapsing of the food system, the governments did not receive taxes and were thus char-
acterised by a non-existent financial capacity for food imports. Furthermore, many farm
owners, having lost much of their workforce (workers, together with their family members),
had nothing to anticipate for. Therefore, they abandoned their properties and searched out
for work elsewhere, most probably in other farms, or survived as mercenaries. As a result,
in much of Europe, the large landowners took possession of the abandoned farms and there-
fore increased their properties but simultaneously generated the existence of numerous
landless inhabitants. So, the distinction between the rich and the poor was more evident
than ever and formed the most favourable environment for social revolutions [76,77].
During this period, in the southern regions such as France, conditions of prolonged
rainfall prevailed during the spring, which caused significant crop damage directly due
to floods and indirectly due to the severe development of plant pathogenicity. Historical
records from various parishes in Scotland reveal massive deaths amounting up to the
1/3 to 2/3 of the population. Reports on extreme and widespread poverty often describe
hideous social consequences, including the exploitation of children, which were often
sold as slaves by their parents for both the children’s and parents’ survival. Hunger and
disease epidemics drove to social disorder, while general lawlessness, including thefts and
Climate 2021, 9, 5 9 of 14

plundering, was prevalent. The inhabitants of the famine-stricken areas sought help from
important institutions and primarily from the Church [9,78].

3.3. Agro-Meteorological Conditions and the French Revolution

An event of great historical significance that determined the evolution of the European
civilisation and presumably of cultures globally is the French Revolution (1789). Grove [13]
reports that the French Revolution, which had itself been much stipulated by prolonged
bad weather, led to the destruction of European crops. The severe winter of 1788 caused
famine and widespread starvation throughout the province, and therefore the dramatic
increase in the price of bread that led to bread riots in Paris [46].
It seems that the El-Niño of 1789 played a decisive role in the destruction of crops
worldwide. Accurately, Grove [79] describes an unusually cold winter (1787–1788) in Europe,
which was followed by a delayed but particularly wet (due to heavy rainfall) spring and
dry summer. The lack of food and the often uprisings led to mass migration, which is
accompanied by the transfer of yellow fever on the east coast of the nowadays United States,
where the disease spread rapidly due to the high concentration of vectors (mosquitoes).
Precursor phenomena of an agro-meteorological nature also may have affected the
conditions that led to the French Revolution. It seems that a prolonged drought, most
likely associated with the El Niño of 1785, had caused damage to the production of grapes
in the wine-producing regions of Normandy and Picardy. During the reduction in grain
production throughout the country in the following years, the price of wine dropped
dramatically, causing a severe economic decline in areas where wine was the main product
(e.g., Champagne, Bordelais, Beaujolais). The reason for the low demand for wine was that
the substantially low income of the population was exclusively consumed for bread and
cereals, which were essential for its survival [13,30,80].
Although warm conditions during spring are favourable for cereal cultivation in
northern France and southwestern Europe in general, the abnormally high temperature
and low humidity conditions, at the late spring of 1788, caused the destruction of grain
production. However, these extreme conditions enhanced the production of wine both
quantitatively and qualitatively. At the end of the summer of 1788, short but severe
hailstorms took place. In some cases, hailstone sizes were such that hares and partridges’
deaths were recorded.
The apparent decline in production and the impending poverty were probably the
primary causes for the uprising of farmers and of the rural populations in the summer
of 1788, which subsequently led to the revolution in the following year (1789). These
hailstorms that followed the hot, dry summer of that year transformed the central and
northern part of France to an arid desert field. From historical records of the Church, it is
estimated that approximately one-fifth of the population in Paris was directly dependent
on beggary and breadlines for survival [41,79–83].
The famine of 1787–1789 is typical since 90% of the French population belonged to the
poorest class, 75 to 80% of which were farmers, while only one-third of the arable land was
in the farmers’ possession. Even the landowners possessed very small pieces of land that
hardly produced the necessary food for the family’s survivor [84].
The status described above clearly demonstrates a high degree of dependence of the
population and the state on the annual food production. Consequently, the extraordinary
AMC that prevailed in the years 1787–1789 led the majority of the people to great despair.
The urban population, which had no direct access to agricultural food production, was most
affected. This resulted in serious conflicts between the sufferers and the state security forces
that were trying to maintain order and limit crime, during a period when an enormous
part of the urban population could not fulfil their nutritional demands. It must be taken
into consideration that the French Revolution, which seems to have been influenced or
even caused by food shortages, was the culmination of many decades of poverty and
hunger, which were both usually generated by the abnormality of the weather conditions
that reduced food production [13,47,85]. The connection between this historical event
Climate 2021, 9, 5 10 of 14

of globally significant importance and the prevailing AMC that significantly reduced
agricultural production is apparent.

3.4. Agro-Meteorological Conditions and the Two Irish Historical Famines

During the “Year of the slaughter” (1740–1741), 13% to 20% of Ireland’s population
died of starvation. The famine of 1740 was the result of the severe cold that prevailed
throughout northern Europe that year. More precisely, the unsustainable conditions for
both humans and crops that lasted for three consecutive years culminated in 1740. Crop
production was low for cereals and especially oats during the years preceding 1740, while
the almost complete loss, at that year, of the potato crop that was predominant in the Irish
diet, led to one of the greatest famines in history [83].
The interaction between the inconceivable food shortages and the abnormal cold
environment deteriorated the health status of Ireland’s population, resulting, thus, in the
generation and outspread of incurable illnesses. Before the “Great Frost” of 1740, a decade
of relatively mild winters had proceeded, resulting in the widespread cultivation of the
potato crop over that of the grain crop (cereals), which is a farming practice that eventually
turned out to be fatal in the year 1740.
The causes of the abrupt decrease in temperature have not yet been confirmed [22,81,83].
The prevailing AMC characterised by an extremely low-temperature regime severely damaged
the potato crops also due to soil freezing. This resulted in the inevitable destruction of both
the stem and the tubers (the subsoil edible part of the plant). In addition, the mass destruction
of the potato production deprived the next growing seasons of the crops’ reproductive
potential [84–88].
A representative case in which the prevailing AMC triggered a series of chain reactions
initially by limiting the available food was that of the “Great Irish potato famine” in 1846.
The summer of this year was unusually hot and humid, thus forming the ideal conditions
for the development of the potato blight disease caused by the fungus Phytophthora
infestans, which had probably entered Europe by ship the previous year. According
to the pathogen’s epidemiology, its germination, infection potential, and distribution
evolve rapidly under conditions of plant surface wetness, high humidity, and moderate
temperature [89,90]. From Ireland, which functioned as the epicentre of the potato blight’s
dispersal, given that potatoes were now the predominant edible plant species, the disease
rapidly entered England, southern Scandinavia, and northwestern Europe.
The potato was the staple food mainly of the lower social strata, including the rural
population. Poverty in conjunction with almost the destruction of the staple food inevitably
led to famine, which furthermore resulted in political unrest and the massive migration
from the affected countries to the whole of Europe and mainly to the American colonies.
This particular historical incident led to the uprisings of the peasantry who demanded the
democratisation, the redistribution of land, and the government’s liberalisation [9,23,91].

4. Summary and Future Perspectives

The Agro-Meteorological Conditions (AMC) demonstrate an essential role in the
history of man and the development of his civilisation, given that they affect food adequacy
and physical and mental health.
The prevailing adverse AMC are potentially destructive environmental components
since they engender multiple adverse developments and therefore determine the stability
and prosperity of civilisations. It seems that the abrupt changes in weather constitute a
non-anthropogenic parameter in the shaping of human history by the Agro-Meteorological
caused Famines (AMF). The adverse environment may generate a complex chain reaction
mechanism with long-term effects on cultural characteristics and historical developments.
The extreme food shortage caused population reductions, migration, social instability,
political regime changes, a new balance between population and resources, and finally
advances on food security.
Climate 2021, 9, 5 11 of 14

It is possible that AMC are just as an essential environmental factor as climate change
since, despite their short duration, their multiplicative effects are equally significant. The
mechanism described in this study reveals that the adverse AMC dramatically affect
human life, both directly and indirectly. The modern worldwide society is in a high
alarm level to prevent food crises. Moreover, food transportation, the stock, and the
distribution chain have established a steady flow of food, giving us an optimistic point of
view. In addition, the atmospheric and agricultural sciences and technology are at a high
level to secure an adequate quantity and quality of food. The challenges of overpopulation
and climate change are the two core issues we face in the effort for adequate agricultural
productivity [91–94].
This study is a first attempt to systematically study and depict the relationships
between food availability and weather conditions that determined human activity, devel-
opment, and health as well as the survival of populations in the European continent.
Our forthcoming aim is the broader study of similar events on a global basis, their
extensive recording, and an attempt to standardise the mechanisms of the influence of AMC
on the course of the civilisation’s evolution by the phenomenon of the Agro-Meteorological
caused Famine (AMF).

Author Contributions: Conceptualisation, I.C.; methodology, I.C. and F.D.; writing—original draft
preparation, I.C. and F.D.; writing—review and editing, I.C. and F.D.; visualisation, I.C.; supervision,
I.C. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Not applicable.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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