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member of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, a trustee of the Urban
Institute, and an adviser to the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal
Reserve Banks of Boston and New York. From 2003 to 2005, he was chair of
the President’s Council of Economic Advisers.
Professor Mankiw lives in Massachusetts with his wife, Deborah, and their
children, Catherine, Nicholas, and Peter.
To Deborah
Those branches of politics, or of the laws of social life, in which there exists a
collection of facts or thoughts sufficiently sifted and methodized to form the
beginning of a science should be taught ex professo. Among the chief of
these is Political Economy, the sources and conditions of wealth and material
prosperity for aggregate bodies of human beings. . . .
The same persons who cry down Logic will generally warn you against
Political Economy. It is unfeeling, they will tell you. It recognises unpleasant
facts. For my part, the most unfeeling thing I know of is the law of
gravitation: it breaks the neck of the best and most amiable person without
scruple, if he forgets for a single moment to give heed to it. The winds and
waves too are very unfeeling. Would you advise those who go to sea to deny
the winds and waves—or to make use of them, and find the means of
guarding against their dangers? My advice to you is to study the great writers
on Political Economy, and hold firmly by whatever in them you find true; and
depend upon it that if you are not selfish or hardhearted already, Political
Economy will not make you so.
John Stuart Mill, 1867
Brief Contents
Media and Resources from Worth Publishers
Prelude: Celebrating the Tenth Edition
Preface
Part I
Introduction
Chapter 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
Chapter 2 The Data of Macroeconomics
Part II
Classical Theory: The Economy in the Long Run
Chapter 3 National Income: Where It Comes From and Where It Goes
Chapter 4 The Monetary System: What It Is and How It Works
Chapter 5 Inflation: Its Causes, Effects, and Social Costs
Chapter 6 The Open Economy
Chapter 7 Unemployment and the Labor Market
Part III
Growth Theory: The Economy in the Very Long Run
Chapter 8 Economic Growth I: Capital Accumulation and Population
Growth
Chapter 9 Economic Growth II: Technology, Empirics, and Policy
Part IV
Business Cycle Theory: The Economy in the Short Run
Chapter 10 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Chapter 11 Aggregate Demand I: Building the IS–LM Model
Chapter 12 Aggregate Demand II: Applying the IS–LM Model
Chapter 13 The Open Economy Revisited: The Mundell–Fleming
Model and the Exchange-Rate Regime
Chapter 14 Aggregate Supply and the Short-Run Tradeoff Between
Inflation and Unemployment
Part V
Topics in Macroeconomic Theory and Policy
Chapter 15 A Dynamic Model of Economic Fluctuations
Chapter 16 Alternative Perspectives on Stabilization Policy
Chapter 17 Government Debt and Budget Deficits
Chapter 18 The Financial System: Opportunities and Dangers
Chapter 19 The Microfoundations of Consumption and Investment
Epilogue What We Know, What We Don’t
Glossary
Index
Contents
Media and Resources from Worth Publishers
Prelude: Celebrating the Tenth Edition
Preface
Part I Introduction
Chapter 1 The Science of Macroeconomics
1-1 What Macroeconomists Study
CASE STUDY The Historical Performance of the U.S. Economy
1-2 How Economists Think
Theory as Model Building
The Use of Multiple Models
FYI Using Functions to Express Relationships Among
Variables
Prices: Flexible Versus Sticky
Microeconomic Thinking and Macroeconomic Models
FYI The Early Lives of Macroeconomists
1-3 How This Book Proceeds
Chapter 2 The Data of Macroeconomics
2-1 Measuring the Value of Economic Activity: Gross Domestic
Product
Income, Expenditure, and the Circular Flow
FYI Stocks and Flows
Rules for Computing GDP
Real GDP Versus Nominal GDP
The GDP Deflator
Chain-Weighted Measures of Real GDP
FYI Two Helpful Hints for Working with Percentage
Changes
The Components of Expenditure
FYI What Is Investment?
CASE STUDY GDP and Its Components
Other Measures of Income
Seasonal Adjustment
2-2 Measuring the Cost of Living: The Consumer Price Index
The Price of a Basket of Goods
How the CPI Compares to the GDP and PCE Deflators
Does the CPI Overstate Inflation?
2-3 Measuring Joblessness: The Unemployment Rate
The Household Survey
CASE STUDY Men, Women, and Labor-Force Participation
The Establishment Survey
2-4 Conclusion: From Economic Statistics to Economic Models
Part II Classical Theory: The Economy in the Long Run
Chapter 3 National Income: Where It Comes From and Where It
Goes
3-1 What Determines the Total Production of Goods and Services?
The Factors of Production
The Production Function
The Supply of Goods and Services
3-2 How Is National Income Distributed to the Factors of
Production?
Factor Prices
The Decisions Facing a Competitive Firm
The Firm’s Demand for Factors
The Division of National Income
CASE STUDY The Black Death and Factor Prices
The Cobb–Douglas Production Function
CASE STUDY Labor Productivity as the Key Determinant of Real
Wages
FYI The Growing Gap Between Rich and Poor
3-3 What Determines the Demand for Goods and Services?
Consumption
Investment
Government Purchases
FYI The Many Different Interest Rates
3-4 What Brings the Supply and Demand for Goods and Services
into Equilibrium?
Equilibrium in the Market for Goods and Services: The Supply
and Demand for the Economy’s Output
Equilibrium in the Financial Markets: The Supply and Demand
for Loanable Funds
Changes in Saving: The Effects of Fiscal Policy
Changes in Investment Demand
3-5 Conclusion
Chapter 4 The Monetary System: What It Is and How It Works
4-1 What Is Money?
The Functions of Money
The Types of Money
CASE STUDY Money in a POW Camp
The Development of Fiat Money
CASE STUDY Money and Social Conventions on the Island of
Yap
FYI Bitcoin: The Strange Case of a Digital Money
How the Quantity of Money Is Controlled
How the Quantity of Money Is Measured
FYI How Do Credit Cards and Debit Cards Fit into the Monetary
System?
4-2 The Role of Banks in the Monetary System
100-Percent-Reserve Banking
Fractional-Reserve Banking
Bank Capital, Leverage, and Capital Requirements
4-3 How Central Banks Influence the Money Supply
A Model of the Money Supply
The Instruments of Monetary Policy
CASE STUDY Quantitative Easing and the Exploding Monetary
Base
Problems in Monetary Control
CASE STUDY Bank Failures and the Money Supply in the 1930s
4-4 Conclusion
Chapter 5 Inflation: Its Causes, Effects, and Social Costs
5-1 The Quantity Theory of Money
Transactions and the Quantity Equation
From Transactions to Income
The Money Demand Function and the Quantity Equation
The Assumption of Constant Velocity
Money, Prices, and Inflation
CASE STUDY Inflation and Money Growth
5-2 Seigniorage: The Revenue from Printing Money
CASE STUDY Paying for the American Revolution
5-3 Inflation and Interest Rates
Two Interest Rates: Real and Nominal
The Fisher Effect
CASE STUDY Inflation and Nominal Interest Rates
Two Real Interest Rates: Ex Ante and Ex Post
5-4 The Nominal Interest Rate and the Demand for Money
The Cost of Holding Money
Future Money and Current Prices
5-5 The Social Costs of Inflation
The Layman’s View and the Classical Response
CASE STUDY What Economists and the Public Say About
Inflation
The Costs of Expected Inflation
The Costs of Unexpected Inflation
CASE STUDY The Free Silver Movement, the Election of 1896,
and the Wizard of Oz
One Benefit of Inflation
5-6 Hyperinflation
The Costs of Hyperinflation
The Causes of Hyperinflation
CASE STUDY Hyperinflation in Interwar Germany
CASE STUDY Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe
5-7 Conclusion: The Classical Dichotomy
Chapter 6 The Open Economy
6-1 The International Flows of Capital and Goods
The Role of Net Exports
International Capital Flows and the Trade Balance
International Flows of Goods and Capital: An Example
The Irrelevance of Bilateral Trade Balances
6-2 Saving and Investment in a Small Open Economy
Capital Mobility and the World Interest Rate
Why Assume a Small Open Economy?
The Model
How Policies Influence the Trade Balance
Evaluating Economic Policy
CASE STUDY The U.S. Trade Deficit
CASE STUDY Why Doesn’t Capital Flow to Poor Countries?
6-3 Exchange Rates
Nominal and Real Exchange Rates
The Real Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance
The Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate
How Policies Influence the Real Exchange Rate
The Effects of Trade Policies
The Determinants of the Nominal Exchange Rate
CASE STUDY Inflation and Nominal Exchange Rates
The Special Case of Purchasing-Power Parity
CASE STUDY The Big Mac Around the World
6-4 Conclusion: The United States as a Large Open Economy
Appendix The Large Open Economy
Chapter 7 Unemployment and the Labor Market
7-1 Job Loss, Job Finding, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
7-2 Job Search and Frictional Unemployment
Causes of Frictional Unemployment
Public Policy and Frictional Unemployment
CASE STUDY Unemployment Insurance and the Rate of Job
Finding
7-3 Real-Wage Rigidity and Structural Unemployment
Minimum-Wage Laws
Unions and Collective Bargaining
Efficiency Wages
CASE STUDY Henry Ford’s $5 Workday
7-4 Labor-Market Experience: The United States
The Duration of Unemployment
CASE STUDY The Increase in U.S. Long-Term Unemployment
and the Debate over Unemployment Insurance
Variation in the Unemployment Rate Across Demographic
Groups
Transitions into and out of the Labor Force
CASE STUDY The Decline in Labor-Force Participation: 2007 to
2017
7-5 Labor-Market Experience: Europe
The Rise in European Unemployment
Unemployment Variation Within Europe
The Rise of European Leisure
7-6 Conclusion
Part III Growth Theory: The Economy in the Very Long Run
Chapter 8 Economic Growth I: Capital Accumulation and Population
Growth
8-1 The Accumulation of Capital
The Supply and Demand for Goods
Growth in the Capital Stock and the Steady State
Approaching the Steady State: A Numerical Example
CASE STUDY The Miracle of Japanese and German Growth
How Saving Affects Growth
8-2 The Golden Rule Level of Capital
Comparing Steady States
Finding the Golden Rule Steady State: A Numerical Example
The Transition to the Golden Rule Steady State
8-3 Population Growth
The Steady State with Population Growth
The Effects of Population Growth
CASE STUDY Investment and Population Growth Around the
World
Alternative Perspectives on Population Growth
8-4 Conclusion
Chapter 9 Economic Growth II: Technology, Empirics, and Policy
9-1 Technological Progress in the Solow Model
The Efficiency of Labor
The Steady State with Technological Progress
The Effects of Technological Progress
9-2 From Growth Theory to Growth Empirics
Balanced Growth
Convergence
Factor Accumulation Versus Production Efficiency
CASE STUDY Good Management as a Source of Productivity
9-3 Policies to Promote Growth
Evaluating the Rate of Saving
Changing the Rate of Saving
Allocating the Economy’s Investment
CASE STUDY Industrial Policy in Practice
Establishing the Right Institutions
CASE STUDY The Colonial Origins of Modern Institutions
Supporting a Pro-growth Culture
Encouraging Technological Progress
CASE STUDY Is Free Trade Good for Economic Growth?
9-4 Beyond the Solow Model: Endogenous Growth Theory
The Basic Model
A Two-Sector Model
The Microeconomics of Research and Development
The Process of Creative Destruction
9-5 Conclusion
Appendix Accounting for the Sources of Economic Growth
Part IV Business Cycle Theory: The Economy in the Short Run
Chapter 10 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
10-1 The Facts About the Business Cycle
GDP and Its Components
Unemployment and Okun’s Law
Leading Economic Indicators
10-2 Time Horizons in Macroeconomics
How the Short Run and the Long Run Differ
CASE STUDY If You Want to Know Why Firms Have Sticky
Prices, Ask Them
The Model of Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand
10-3 Aggregate Demand
The Quantity Equation as Aggregate Demand
Why the Aggregate Demand Curve Slopes Downward
Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve
10-4 Aggregate Supply
The Long Run: The Vertical Aggregate Supply Curve
The Short Run: The Horizontal Aggregate Supply Curve
From the Short Run to the Long Run
CASE STUDY A Monetary Lesson from French History
10-5 Stabilization Policy
Shocks to Aggregate Demand
Shocks to Aggregate Supply
CASE STUDY How OPEC Helped Cause Stagflation in the 1970s
and Euphoria in the 1980s
10-6 Conclusion
Chapter 11 Aggregate Demand I: Building the IS–LM Model
11-1 The Goods Market and the IS Curve
The Keynesian Cross
CASE STUDY Cutting Taxes to Stimulate the Economy: The
Kennedy and Bush Tax Cuts
CASE STUDY Increasing Government Purchases to Stimulate
the Economy: The Obama Stimulus
CASE STUDY Using Regional Data to Estimate Multipliers
The Interest Rate, Investment, and the IS Curve
How Fiscal Policy Shifts the IS Curve
11-2 The Money Market and the LM Curve
The Theory of Liquidity Preference
CASE STUDY Does a Monetary Tightening Raise or Lower
Interest Rates?
Income, Money Demand, and the LM Curve
How Monetary Policy Shifts the LM Curve
11-3 Conclusion: The Short-Run Equilibrium
Chapter 12 Aggregate Demand II: Applying the IS–LM Model
12-1 Explaining Fluctuations with the IS–LM Model
How Fiscal Policy Shifts the IS Curve and Changes the Short-
Run Equilibrium
How Monetary Policy Shifts the LM Curve and Changes the
Short-Run Equilibrium
The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Shocks in the IS–LM Model
CASE STUDY The U.S. Recession of 2001
What Is the Fed’s Policy Instrument—The Money Supply or the
Interest Rate?
12-2 IS–LM as a Theory of Aggregate Demand
From the IS–LM Model to the Aggregate Demand Curve
The IS–LM Model in the Short Run and Long Run
12-3 The Great Depression
The Spending Hypothesis: Shocks to the IS Curve
The Money Hypothesis: A Shock to the LM Curve
The Money Hypothesis Again: The Effects of Falling Prices
Could the Depression Happen Again?
CASE STUDY The Financial Crisis and Great Recession of 2008
and 2009
The Liquidity Trap (Also Known as the Zero Lower Bound)
FYI The Curious Case of Negative Interest Rates
12-4 Conclusion
Chapter 13 The Open Economy Revisited: The Mundell–Fleming
Model and the Exchange-Rate Regime
13-1 The Mundell–Fleming Model
The Key Assumption: Small Open Economy with Perfect Capital
Mobility
The Goods Market and the IS* Curve
The Money Market and the LM* Curve
Putting the Pieces Together
13-2 The Small Open Economy Under Floating Exchange Rates
Fiscal Policy
Monetary Policy
Trade Policy
13-3 The Small Open Economy Under Fixed Exchange Rates
How a Fixed-Exchange-Rate System Works
CASE STUDY The International Gold Standard
Fiscal Policy
Monetary Policy
CASE STUDY Devaluation and the Recovery from the Great
Depression
Trade Policy
Policy in the Mundell–Fleming Model: A Summary
13-4 Interest Rate Differentials
Country Risk and Exchange-Rate Expectations
Differentials in the Mundell–Fleming Model
CASE STUDY International Financial Crisis: Mexico 1994–1995
CASE STUDY International Financial Crisis: Asia 1997–1998
13-5 Should Exchange Rates Be Floating or Fixed?
Pros and Cons of Different Exchange-Rate Systems
CASE STUDY The Debate over the Euro
Speculative Attacks, Currency Boards, and Dollarization
The Impossible Trinity
CASE STUDY The Chinese Currency Controversy
13-6 From the Short Run to the Long Run: The Mundell–Fleming
Model with a Changing Price Level
13-7 A Concluding Reminder
Appendix A Short-Run Model of the Large Open Economy
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