1 Just Dial 13jan25 Kotak Inst
1 Just Dial 13jan25 Kotak Inst
~Rs19k (2.3%% yoy) and campaign additions of ~2.6k (6.0% yoy). Billings
74.2
growth of 3.4% yoy was muted and is a matter of concern, especially after a
weak 8% yoy growth print in 2QFY25. 4Q is generally a strong quarter of billings,
and there is a possibility of some normalization in that quarter. Deferred Promoters FPI s MFs BFIs Retail Others
revenues grew 7.3% yoy and declined 1.6% qoq to Rs5 bn. Unique visitor count
Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities Act of 1933
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
improved by 15.3% yoy to ~191 mn (down 3.4% qoq).
Absolute (5) (19) 23
Rel. to Nifty (0) (12) 15
Margin growth once again driven by higher employee productivity Rel. to MSCI India 0 (11) 10
EBITDA of Rs866 mn (up 5.5% qoq) was 2.8% higher than our estimate of Rs843
mn. EBITDA growth was driven by an increase in campaigns, with sequentially Forecasts/Valuations 2025E 2026E 2027E
reduced employee headcount. Employee cost was down 3.0% yoy (2.9% below EPS (Rs) 66.7 65.9 71.8
estimates). This was due to a 12% yoy reduction in headcount, a trend EPS growth (%) 56.3 (1.2) 9.0
P/E (X) 15.5 15.7 14.4
witnessed continuously in the past five quarters, possibly on account of better
P/B (X) 1.9 1.7 1.5
employee efficiency. Other expenses were up 5.3% yoy (4.7% lower than
EV/EBITDA (X) 10.9 8.2 6.2
estimates). EBITDA margin print came in at 30.1% against our estimate of
RoE (%) 13.2 11.5 11.2
28.9% and seems to have fully normalized.
Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
estimates), on account of the miss in other income. Cash balance improved to Prices in this report are based on the market close of
January 10, 2025
Rs50.6 bn as of December 2024. There is, however, no clarity on the return of
cash to shareholders.
Raise FY2026-27 EPS estimates by 1-3% on other income and lower tax rate
We trim FY2025-27E revenue by 1-4% and FY2026-27E EPS by 1-3 %. This is on
the back of weak collections print in 2Q-3QFY25. We roll forward to March
2027E and cut target ex-cash P/E multiple to 19X to arrive at a revised FV of Related Research
Rs1,330 (Rs1,475 earlier). The long-term growth concerns remain, though → Just Dial: 2QFY25: Some recovery in traffic
margins have normalized, and we expect billings to show some recovery in → and
Justbillings 2Q noteMargin outperformance
Dial: 1QFY25:
4QFY25. Retain BUY. again 1Q note
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2
Revenue growth of 8.4% yoy led by realization growth of 2.3% yoy and paid campaign growth of 6.0% yoy
Standalone quarterly financials of Just Dial, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn)
Change (%) Yoy growth Yoy growth
3QFY25 3QFY25E 3QFY24 2QFY25 KIE Est yoy qoq 9MFY25 9MFY24 (%) FY2025E FY2024 (%)
Sales 2,873 2,915 2,651 2,848 (1.4) 8.4 0.9 8,527 7,726 10.4 11,586 10,429 11.1
Expenses (2,007) (2,072) (2,047) (2,028) (3.1) (1.9) (1.0) (6,034) (6,268) (3.7) (8,230) (8,264) (0.4)
Employee (1,732) (1,783) (1,785) (1,745) (2.9) (3.0) (0.8) (5,206) (5,464) (4.7) (7,074) (7,198) (1.7)
Other expenses (276) (289) (262) (283) (4.7) 5.3 (2.4) (829) (804) 3.1 (1,155) (1,066) 8.4
Operating profit 866 843 604 821 2.8 43.4 5.5 2,493 1,458 70.9 3,356 2,166 55.0
Other income 774 1,100 749 1,136 (29.6) 3.4 (31.9) 2,779 2,142 29.8 3,919 3,055 28.3
EBIDT 1,640 1,943 1,352 1,957 5,272 3,600 46.4 7,275 5,220 39.4
Interest (28) (25) (22) (24) 13.2 30.4 18.9 (71) (65) 9.5 (94) (93) 1.1
Depreciation (120) (119) (121) (117) 0.9 (0.9) 2.4 (355) (344) 3.1 (487) (462) 5.5
PBT 1,492 1,799 1,209 1,816 (17.1) 23.4 (17.8) 4,846 3,191 51.9 6,694 4,666 43.5
Tax (179) (270) (289) (275) (580) (719) (1,024) (1,036)
Net profit 1,313 1,529 920 1,541 (14.1) 42.7 (14.8) 4,266 2,472 72.6 5,670 3,629 56.2
Extraordinary items — — — — — —
Reported PAT 1,313 1,529 920 1,541 (14.1) 42.7 (14.8) 4,266 2,472 72.6 5,670 3,629 56.2
EPS (Rs/sh) 15 18 8 17 (14.1) 82.9 (7.0) 66.7 42.7
Key ratios (%)
Employee cost/sales 60.3 61.2 67.3 61.3 61.0 70.7 61.1 69.0
Other operating expenses/sales 9.6 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.7 10.4 10.0 10.2
EBITDA margin 30.1 28.9 22.8 28.8 122 bps 736 bps 132 bps 29.2 18.9 1035 bps 29.0 20.8 820 bps
PBT margin 51.9 61.7 45.6 63.7 56.8 41.3 57.8 44.7
Tax rate 12.0 15.0 23.9 15.1 12.0 22.5 15.3 22.2
PAT margin 45.7 52.4 34.7 54.1 50.0 32.0 48.9 34.8
Other operating metrics
Total campaigns (#) 601,080 606,430 566,955 598,430 (0.9) 6.0 0.4 601,080 566,955 6.0
Price per campaign (Rs) 19,121 19,229 18,700 19,038 (0.6) 2.3 0.4 14,187 13,628 4.1
Headcount (#) 12,676 14,888 13,112 (14.9) (3.3) 12,676 14,888
Advertising spend (Rs mn) 65 50 50
Unearned revenue (Rs mn) 5,072 4,680 5,001 8.4 1.4
Operating performance of Just Dial in tier I and tier II/III cities, March fiscal year-ends
Yoy growth
1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 (%)
Total Revenue 1,856 2,053 2,214 2,325 2,470 2,606 2,651 2,703 2,806 2,848 2,873 8
Tier I 1,188 1,293 1,372 1,418 1,482 1,538 1,564 1,568 1,627 1,652 1,667 7
Tier II/III 668 759 841 907 988 1,069 1,087 1,135 1,178 1,196 1,207 11
% share of Tier II/III 36 37 38 39 40 41 41 42 42 42 42
Campaigns 483,690 503,840 521,880 538,220 548,270 560,830 566,955 583,690 591,650 598,430 601,080 6
Tier I 207,987 214,132 221,799 220,670 219,308 224,332 226,782 233,476 236,660 239,372 240,432 6
Tier II/III 275,703 289,708 300,081 317,550 328,962 336,498 340,173 350,214 354,990 359,058 360,648 6
% share of Tier II/III 57 58 58 59 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
Just Dial
Internet Software & Services India Research
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3
Price per campaign of Just Dial, March fiscal year-ends, 2QFY22-2QFY25 (Rs ‘000s)
25
27.7
27.6
27.6
27.5
27.4
27.0
26.9
25.7
24.8
24.2
22.8
20
15
13.4
13.3
13.3
13.0
12.8
10
12.7
12.0
11.4
11.2
10.5
9.7
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
2QFY25
3QFY25
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
(#, '000) Paid campaigns (LHS) Yoy growth in paid campaigns (RHS) Yoy growth (%)
630 24
570 18
601
598
592
584
567
561
510
548
538
12
522
504
450
484
6
461
457
454
438
437
390
0
330
(6)
270
210 (12)
150 (18)
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
3QFY22
1QFY23
3QFY23
1QFY24
3QFY24
1QFY25
3QFY25
4QFY22
2QFY23
4QFY23
2QFY24
4QFY24
2QFY25
Just Dial
Internet Software & Services India Research
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4
(#, '000)
48
24 22
28 20 18 17
16
10 13
5 7 6 8 7
8 4 3
4QFY21
1QFY22
3QFY22
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
3QFY25
3QFY21
4QFY22
1QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
2QFY25
(12)
(19)
(32)
(52)
(72)
(92)
5,000 (10)
(15)
0 (20)
3QFY21
1QFY22
4QFY22
2QFY23
4QFY23
2QFY24
4QFY24
2QFY25
4QFY21
3QFY22
1QFY23
3QFY23
1QFY24
3QFY24
1QFY25
3QFY25
Just Dial
Internet Software & Services India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
5
(#, mn)
56
46 48
48 44 45
40 42
37 38
40 35
33 34
30 30 31 31 32
32
24
16
0
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
2QFY25
3QFY25
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.7
3.0
3.5
12
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
10
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.8
3.0
8
11.9
11.7
11.6
11.5
11.3
10.9
10.6
10.2
10.2
10.0
6
9.8
9.8
8.5
8.3
8.1
6.9
6.8
4
2
3QFY21
4QFY21
2QFY22
4QFY22
2QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
1QFY25
3QFY25
1QFY22
3QFY22
1QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY24
2QFY25
Just Dial
Internet Software & Services India Research
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Revenue per employee improved sequentially and was the highest ever in 3QFY25
End-of-the-period employee count (#, LHS) and revenue per employee (Rs ‘000, RHS), March
fiscal year-ends
Employee strength (LHS) Campaigns per employee (#, RHS) Campaigns per
(#)
employee (#)
13,000 70
12,000 60
11,000
50
10,000
9,000 40
8,000 30
7,000
20
6,000
5,000 10
4,000 -
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
3QFY21
3QFY22
2QFY23
3QFY23
2QFY24
3QFY24
2QFY25
3QFY25
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
200
23 6
21 5
20 6
186
21 6
19 6
19 6
150
176
17 6
186
18 7
176
186
16 6
186
176
146
100
169
164
155
148
147
145
141
137
134
132
125
125
121
120
108
106
104
50
0
4QFY21
1QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
2QFY23
3QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
3QFY21
2QFY22
1QFY23
4QFY23
3QFY24
2QFY25
3QFY25
Just Dial
Internet Software & Services India Research
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7
Revenue growth and EBITDA margin profile of JUST, March fiscal year-ends, 1QFY21-3QFY25
(%)
(%) Just Dial EBITDA margin (%) Just Dial revenue growth (%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
2QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
2QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
3QFY24
1QFY25
2QFY25
1QFY21
3QFY21
2QFY22
1QFY23
3QFY23
2QFY24
4QFY24
3QFY25
(10)
(20)
(30)
(40)
Key changes in estimates for Just Dial, March fiscal year-ends, 2024-26E (Rs mn)
New estimates Old estimates % revision
2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E
Total revenues 11,465 12,513 13,529 11,586 12,826 14,063 (1.0) (2.4) (3.8)
EBITDA 3,381 3,751 3,988 3,356 3,847 4,250 0.7 (2.5) (6.2)
EBITDA margin (%) 29.5 30.0 29.5 29.0 30.0 30.2
PAT 5,672 5,603 6,109 5,670 5,675 6,304 0.0 (1.3) (3.1)
EPS (Rs) 66.7 65.9 71.8 66.7 66.7 74.1 0.0 (1.3) (3.1)
Tax rate (%) 12.4 20.8 21.3 15.3 20.9 21.4
Yoy growth metrics (%)
Sales 9.9 9.1 8.1 11.1 10.7 9.7
EBITDA 56.1 10.9 6.3 55.0 14.6 10.5
PAT 56.3 (1.2) 9.0 56.2 0.1 11.1
Just Dial
Internet Software & Services India Research
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Details of the assumptions for Just Dial, March fiscal year-ends, 2017-26E (Rs mn)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
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Campaigns (#) 445,110 500,838 536,236 457,360 461,495 538,220 583,690 609,372 652,028 691,150
Revenues from core business (Rs mn) 7,818 8,915 9,531 6,752 6,470 8,448 10,429 11,465 12,513 13,529
Yoy growth (%) 10.7 14.0 6.9 (29.2) (4.2) 30.6 23.5 9.9 9.1 8.1
Other revenues — — — — — — — — — —
Total revenues 7,818 8,915 9,531 6,752 6,470 8,448 10,429 11,465 12,513 13,529
Yoy growth (%) 8.8 14.0 6.9 (29.2) (4.2) 30.6 23.5 9.9 9.1 8.1
Number of employees (#) 11,452 12,691 12,423 11,162 13,343 15,320 12,834 12,884 13,884 14,584
Employee cost/ sales (%) 56.5 55.8 55.9 65.6 77.9 77.1 69.0 60.7 60.2 61.0
Other expenses (core business) 22.5 18.6 15.4 11.4 22.4 12.8 10.2 9.8 9.8 9.6
EBITDA margin (%) 21.0 25.7 28.6 22.9 (0.3) 10.2 20.8 29.5 30.0 29.5
PAT 1,432 2,068 2,723 2,142 708 1,627 3,629 5,672 5,603 6,109
EPS (Rs) 21.2 31.9 42.0 34.6 8.5 19.3 42.7 66.7 65.9 71.8
Yoy growth (%) 18.0 44.4 31.7 (21.3) (66.9) 129.7 123.0 56.3 (1.2) 9.0
Just Dial
Internet Software & Services India Research
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DISCLAIMERS, DISCLOSURES & LEGAL
Ratings and other definitions/identifiers
Definitions of ratings
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which
50% Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
provided investment banking services within the previous
12 months.
40% 37.8%
* The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
28.7%
30% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to deliver
5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce = We
19.6% expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next
20%
13.8% 12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver less than
9.5% -5% returns over the next 12 months. Our target prices
10% are also on a 12-month horizon basis. These ratings are
3.3% 1.8% used illustratively to comply with applicable regulations. As
1.5%
of 30/09/2024 Kotak Institutional Equities Investment
0%
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL Research had investment ratings on 275 equity securities.
Coverage view
The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable
regulation(s) and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or
strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a
sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in
effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
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