I n v e s t O r s

GOLD
G u I D e
By Jeff Clark, Editor of BIG GOLD

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since 2008, while worldwide, M2 one measure of money supply is up in all G7 countries.

Welcome to Casey Research!

Were glad to send you our brand new 2012 Tomorrows inflation is already baked in the cake. Gold Investors Guide, an updated version of our wildly popular Three Best Ways to Invest in Gold And while the cry to cut government spending special report. gets louder, the deficit and debt continue to grow. The official deficit for 2011 is estimated at $1.6 Were absolutely confident that if you follow its trillion, although in reality its almost $2 trillion. advice, youll be in position to make spectacular Total US debt at the end of 2011 was $15.2 trillion. gains in gold in the months and years ahead. How has gold responded to all of this? Between Now, we dont recommend investing in gold beJanuary 2007 and January 2011, gold rose 144.7%, cause were gold bugs. We do it because gold is the while the S&P 500 fell 11.3% in the same period. safest way to protect yourself from failing currencies and out-of-control governments... and because And while gold has corrected significantly since its the best way to profit from fundamental factors last summer (2011), its still up 13.4% for the year, working in your favor. while the S&P 500 is flat with a gain of 0%.

So Why Should You Invest in Gold?

Here are the closing prices for gold for the end of the each year from 2000, along with the percentage increase from the preceding year:

2000 $271.50 2001 $278.1 (gain of 2.43%) 2002 $347.50 (gain of 24.96%) 2003 $415.20 (gain of 19.48%) Housing prices are down 33% from their bubble peak in 2006, and we believe the end of the decline 2004 $437.10 (gain of 5.27%) 2005 $516.60 (gain of 18.19%) is still not in sight. While worldwide stock markets have recovered some of their 2008 losses, few 2006 $636.00 (gain of 23.11%) 2007 $833.30 (gain of 31.02) investors are confident that a lasting recovery is here to stay. And unemployment continues to rise 2008 $880.80 (gain of 5.7%) 2009 $1,095.60 (gain of 24.39%) in most developed countries. 2010 $1,421.60 (gain of 29.76%) Governments the world over are debasing their cur2011 $1,566.40 (gain of 10.19%) rencies by lowering interest rates, and many have The bottom line is that since the end of 2000, gold resorted to quantitative easing, a fancy term that has risen 477%. Heres what this spectacular gain means nothing more than printing money. In the US, the number of dollars in circulation has tripled looks like on a graph: Lets call the global crisis what it is: the worst financial collapse since 1929.

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Over the same period, the S&P lost 4.7%. Even sharp corrections like the 20% drop from

August to October 2008 shown in the chart havent altered the trend of this massive bull market.

Gold and Silver vs. Other Investment Classes During the Past Five Years

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Here, specifically, is why we think its not too late: 1. Gold is an inflation hedge. As the Fed continues cranking up the printing presses, flooding the economy with paper money, and as national debt skyrockets at unprecedented rates, there is no question that sooner or later (we think sooner), inflation will come roaring back with a vengeance. Theres no doubt that the current administration and Federal Reserve are committed to printing enough money so that the dollar will continue to be devalued. After all, its the only legitimate way for them to ever be able to repay their debts. And gold is the #1 way to protect yourself from the inflationary results of their actions. 2. Gold is a dollar hedge. Mounting pressure on the dollar from negative real interest rates and debasement from all the government bailouts, debts, and money printing are all conspiring to push the dollar lower (notwithstanding the fact that the Dollar Index was flat for 2011 due to investors fleeing to US Treasuries in the face of Europes debt woes). Gold has moved higher against the US dollar every year since 2000, and its done even better against euros, Swiss francs, Canadian dollars, or British pounds. Thats a solid, unbroken, global bull market. Think about this: Unlike paper money, which has lost 96% of its purchasing power since the inception of the Federal Reserve in 1913, golds purchasing power has essentially stayed the same. Imagine that in 1930 when the average monthly wage was $165 and gold sold for $21 an ounce you had hidden a one-ounce coin under your mattress. And lets say your neighbor stashed the same amount of money away $21 in one-dollar bills.

As you can see, despite the sharp correction in the last quarter of 2011 the precious metals sector has been the place to be. Gold rose for an eleventh consecutive year, setting yet another nominal record ($1,900.30). From 2007 through 2011, it gained 155.49%. Silver did nearly as well, gaining 116.6%. And the DOW? It lost 1.9%. The S&P did even worse, dropping 11.3%. Clearly, gold and silver have rewarded investors handsomely in 2011, notwithstanding the extremely volatile year. Our portfolio has held up extremely well, despite the volatility of 2008 and 2011. Overall, its up 14.9% for the period of 2007-2011. While that may not seem so impressive, consider the fact that the Dow, S&P 500, and many other markets lost money during that time and that our published portfolio gains do not include dividends. Meanwhile, many CNBC types and government officials continue to claim that gold is in a bubble or outright declare it as a poor investment. Amazing.

Is It Too Late to Invest in Gold?

Absolutely not. While gold has had a good run, our research shows that whats ahead will be, quite frankly, spectacular. By positioning yourself now, youll be in ahead of the crowd and will profit tremendously as greater masses rush in. Think about this: The near-fivefold increase weve seen in the gold price has happened during a period of no price inflation to speak of no effects of the atrocious increase in the money supply. Imagine what will happen to the price of gold when serious inflation kicks in, as it certainly will. Investors will stampede to gold as never before.
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When not if that situation occurs, gold will take the proverbial moon shot that weve been talking about for years. 3. Gold is money. Throughout recorded history, gold has been an accepted means of exchange worldwide. It fulfills the four criteria for money: Its divisible, portable, durable, and limited in supply (in the era of Ben Helicopter Bernanke, the fourth criterion technically disqualifies the US dollar as money).

Back then, that coin would have bought you a good-quality suit. Fast forward to today: that one ounce of gold will still buy you a nice suit. And consider this: In 1900, $1 bought 14 loaves of bread; but in 2010 it would only get you 16 slices from one 20-slice loaf. At some point, it might well be cheaper to use your depreciated paper money as toilet paper than to buy actual bathroom tissue with it.

Gold and Dollar, CPI-Adjusted

Even though its price is subject to fluctuation, gold has never been worth zero. And if times get truly desperate such as the Greater Depression Doug Casey has been predicting for years a gold coin will hold much greater value than a pocketful of dollar bills. Were not the only ones who think so. Legendary hedge fund manager John Paulson owns 20.3 million shares in the SPDR Gold Trust, a bullion gold
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holdings ETF more than several major countries combined. And Michael Pento (chief economist at Delta Global Advisors Inc.) announced that the firm is doubling its gold holdings to 8%, adding that, Anything the government cannot replicate by decree, I want to own. There are a growing number of voices expressing the same sentiment. Right now you may be asking how gold will fare
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the sale of physical bullion (we had that in 08 and gold was up 5.5% hardly meteoric). No, the payday rise in gold will occur when there is a significant shift in the psychology of the general public. That shift is already starting to appear: According to the World Gold Council, demand for gold was at a ten-year high in 2010 despite a 40% increase in price between 2008 and 2010. For Q3 of 2011, demand was up 6% compared to the same period in 2010. Another sign that the publics psychology about gold is shifting is that the US Mint frequently suspends sales of its more popular coins due to overwhelming demand. Institutional investors are starting to enter the gold market as well. In April of last year, the University of Texas announced that its endowment fund (the second-largest in the country next to Harvards) had taken possession of a billion dollars worth of physical gold. Gold and gold-denominated investments are among the biggest positions of the $5 billion hedge fund Greenlight Capital, which has more than doubled its holding in the Mark Vectors Gold Miners ETF to over seven million shares. Before the gold rocket takes off, lets look at the three best ways I know of to invest in gold so that youre positioned ahead of the crowd.

if we have a serious depression. The answer lies in the Great Depression itself. From the summer of 1929 to the summer of 1935, the Dow lost 66.7% (from 381.17 to 127.27). Meanwhile, the two biggest mining companies in the world at the time Homestake Mining and Dome Mines gained 519% and 558%, respectively (the price of gold itself was artificially pegged at $35/oz by the government). The bottom line is, even in a depression, gold will more than hold its own in terms of purchasing power.

When Will Gold Take Off?

Because the Fed continues to pour money into the economy, its difficult to say for certain when gold will make a dramatic move. The historical record indicates that a surge in money growth has its peak effect on economic activity about 9-18 months later. Add another 12 months or so for the peak effect on consumer price inflation. In other words, the Federal Reserve is always driving with a loose steering wheel. Most of the experience behind those numbers is with relatively tame ups and downs in the business cycle not the kind of financial violence weve been seeing over the last several years, which adds another variable. And on top of that, the numbers are about peak effect, not initial effect. So while pinpointing the exact timing is difficult, what we do know is that there are clear and unavoidable consequences to wildly energetic money creation, including, sooner or later, rampant price inflation. Are there signals? The primary sign wont be inflows to ETFs (although they are indicators), or jewelry sales (the 70s bull market had nothing to do with bracelets), or even dramatic increases in
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Best Way #1: PHYSICAL GOLD

Given the state of the global economy and the US government continuing to administer large doses of the wrong medicine, we first recommend that all investors place from 10% to 20% of their investments in gold bullion and coins.
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will likely get a better total price with shipping included at Border Gold than you would at your local coin shop. 4. assetstrategies.com (1-800-831-0007 in North America). Asset Strategies International in Maryland carries a full range of one-ounce bullion coins. ASI also offers the option of storing gold outside the US.

We dont mean 10-20% of your gold portfolio; we mean 20% of all your liquid assets. Sounds extreme, we know. But even if the global economy remains in a deflationary dip and gold struggles for a while, gold remains the safe harbor during the upheaval. Remember, its not simply a question of inflation or deflation; its a crisis. And thats exactly what gold ownership is for.

5. davidhall.com (1-800-759-7575). We go to one place for rare or numismatic coins: Van Simmons Bernanke and Geithner wont be rewriting history; at David Hall Rare Coins, who actually helped theyll be part of it. create the Professional Coin Grading Service. We dont recommend entering the numismatic world Nothing replaces having physical gold in your posas an investor unless you are or are willing to session and under your control. become a knowledgeable coin collector.

Where to Buy Physical Gold

If you know an honest, reputable coin dealer in your area, thats a good place to start for smaller purchases. Our editors buy their gold either with a local dealer or online, but either way its important to find a reputable dealer... as in every line of business, theres no shortage of crooks. In our experience, the best places to buy physical gold are: 1. MilesFranklin.com (1-800-822-8080). Miles Franklin has some of the deepest contacts in the industry and as a result has been able to source metal when many other dealers cant. And with some of the best prices in the industry, theyre one of our top picks. Be sure to tell them youre calling from Casey Research to get the best deal. 2. thecoinagent.com (1-888-494-8889, or email [email protected]). Proprietor Wayne Lemonier has some of the lowest costs weve seen in the industry. 3. bordergold.com (888-312-2288, ext. 7). Border Gold in Vancouver, BC is where we go for the Canadian Maple Leaf. Costs are so low that you
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Keep in mind that premiums and delivery times will fluctuate according to market conditions. There are other online dealers out there, and some may have good prices, too. The things to watch for are total costs (including product, shipping, and insurance) and availability; if a dealer claims it will be several weeks to locate the product, we would look elsewhere. Its also not uncommon to find salespeople who try to talk you into other products, such as proof sets or rare coins (this is especially true with the dealers that advertise on TV), so beware of the hard sell. We havent had that experience with our recommended dealers. Where do you store your gold? There isnt a magic bullet for safekeeping, as each form has its own risks. Physical gold is subject to theft and fire; paper gold is subject to fraud and mismanagement. The most prudent approach is to own more than one form of gold, in more than one location, with an edge toward physical ownership. Weve prepared an in-depth report that outlines your options here.
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under your immediate control, holding paper proxies for the metal can be a useful portfolio supplement. In recent years, the market has responded to burgeoning demand for convenient ways to trade commodities by creating a galaxy of exchange traded funds (ETFs). These are designed to mirror the ups and downs of the underlying commodity and can be bought and sold like a stock. 1. The largest and most popular gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), buys and holds gold bullion in a secure London vault, with each share trading at approximately 1/10 the price of an ounce of gold on the spot market. GLD has done a very good job of following golds lead, posting gains that have been only slightly below that of the metal itself (due to costs). GLD represents a simple, effective way of extracting some paper profits from golds bull run. We like the ETF Physical Swiss Gold Shares (SGOL) even better, since the gold is stored in Switzerland and the custodial structure is less complicated. 2. Want a fund with both gold and silver? Central Fund of Canada (CEF) is a closed-end fund thats made up of roughly 55% gold and 42% silver. The major difference between it and an ETF is that ETFs are structured to keep the share price very close to net asset value (NAV). Not so with a closed-end fund, which responds much more strongly to market sentiment about the fund itself. This means that shares in a gold-based, closed-end fund can trade at a steep discount to NAV or at a premium. Over time, while CEF rises and falls in tandem with gold, those who buy at a discount and sell at a premium will get an added kicker and those who do the opposite will get kicked. To watch for the best entry point, visit the CEF website from time to time and click on Net Asset Value. The figure is updated daily. 3. Perth Mint Certificates (PMCs)are a form of paper gold. The additional advantage a PMC provides over ETFs is that it gives you instant in8

You can get started owning physical gold with as little as $100 a month, thanks to new savings programs that can automatically withdraw the money from your bank account. So, instead of shelling out $1,600 or more for an ounce of gold, you can start buying that ounce and more in monthly installments. These programs can also store your gold as well (you can also accumulate silver through these programs). Weve vetted dozens of programs and have found three to be worthy of recommendation: BullionVault, GoldMoney, and SilverSaver. SilverSaver, despite the name, allows you to purchase gold, too. It is the most convenient of these programs to automatically purchase physical metal. Storage is at the First State Depository in Delaware. With BullionVault, you get a free gram of gold upon registration, and you can choose storage in Zurich, London, or New York. Premiums are cheap, and if you have online bill paying ability, you can choose how much you want to automatically contribute to your account. GoldMoney allows you to buy platinum and palladium in addition to gold and silver. However, the only way to fund it is through a wire transfer, which adds to your overall cost. Storage options are London, Zurich, or Hong Kong, and prices are very competitive. No automated purchase plan is available for North Americans, but is for Europeans. BullionVault and GoldMoney arent really designed for delivery (although it can be arranged), so if you intend to eventually take possession, SilverSaver is your best bet.

Best Way #2: PAPER GOLD

While there is no substitute for having physical gold
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points. Gold stocks wont go up in a straight line, and when those inevitable pullbacks come, you are being given the opportunity to initiate or add to positions at great prices. Thats what the BIG GOLD editors do. Hold meaning dont trade it, time it, or run the risk of getting caught on the sidelines with stocks taking off. Plus, youll get to sleep better at night than those who try their hand at timing. And repeat until the rest of civilization joins us and pushes our prices much higher. Until the mania kicks in, we do recommend taking profits when youre up by, say, 30% or more. This is how we come up with the cash to buy more stocks and bullion. By following this simple strategy, one can accumulate substantial positions over time at good prices. In fact, Doug Casey has often said that his success as an investor has come down to one key factor: being able to recognize the difference between somethings price and its value. Whenever theres a large discrepancy between these two in any form of investment, its an opportunity to profit. And thats especially true with gold stocks right now.

ternational diversification. The disadvantage is that it doesnt trade like a stock, as theyre designed for more long-term holdings. Its also the only government-backed bullion storage program vaulted and insured by the state of Western Australia. There is a US$10,000 minimum initial purchase and a US$5,000 minimum for subsequent purchases.

Best Way #3: THE RIGHT GOLD STOCKS

Gold stocks are a leveraged way to play a rising gold price. You might look at gold as your defense and gold stocks as your offense. When the gold price really heats up, gold stocks will rise exponentially more. It is this volatility that will bring us what we believe will be life-changing profits. One bit of caution, though: with this added leverage comes added risk. Gold stocks exhibit greater volatility than gold in both directions. This has two implications: Our company recommendations should not be viewed as family heirlooms you can hold into old age or leave to your children. At some point we will be selling our stock positions to lock in big gains. We recommend you avoid trading. You may read others who recommend doing this, but trading in our opinion is not a prudent way to capture the big gains. Keep in mind that you must be right twice to make one profitable trade; you must correctly time the bottom and correctly time the top to capture a gain. A wrong call on one of those can keep you from profiting. And worse what if you get caught on the sidelines and the stock takes off without you? Our best advice on how to buy a gold stock can be summed up in three words.

Why Gold Stocks Are Gathering Strength

Investors are becoming increasingly antsy to find a place to put their money that doesnt lead to the kind of negative returns that are inevitable for stocks, bonds, houses, and Tom Brady-autographed footballs for the foreseeable future.

Once inflation begins to ramp up, there will even be a widespread questioning of the value of curBuy. Hold. Repeat. rency itself. People will turn to historys premier Buy when prices drop and give you attractive entry safe haven, gold.
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That will change. As gold moves steadily higher, gold stocks will start to catch up. And this is just the beginning. The stocks that prosper the most will be those producers that are best at combining growing revenue streams with effective cost controls and properties in areas where mining activity is welcomed.

As we said before, gold is money when nothing else is. One of the criteria that make gold suitable as money is its limited supply. And although world gold production has been rising since 2008, it is still below its 2001 peak. Of the eight largest goldproducing countries in the world, six have declining production and thus bring fewer and fewer ounces to the market every year. Further, in the most recent data available, the World Mining Congress reported some alarming statistics: Based on historic averages, 75% of all discovered gold has been mined. In spite of massive increases in exploration spending, new discoveries are declining. The traditional search space for gold is being depleted. Newer mines are being found in more technically challenging and politically risky areas. Make no mistake: A decrease in global gold production will underpin the bull market for years. At the same time, demand is skyrocketing. Central banks have been net buyers of gold since 2009. And 20 out of 22 fund managers interviewed in 2010 bought physical gold for personal investment because they fear quantitative easing programs will lead to inflation. In other words, not only are they buying gold in their funds, theyre also stashing some at home. India and China are also accelerating their gold purchases. According to the World Gold Council, the countries demand for gold grew 38% and 25%, respectively, in Q2 2011 and during the same period in 2010. And they account for 52% of all investment demand for gold. Despite the insatiable world appetite for the yellow metal, the companies that produce the stuff have not been appropriately rewarded. Their stock prices remain relatively inexpensive.
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Mr. Conservatives Approach

The easiest, simplest, and most conservative way to profit with gold stocks is to buy into a gold-stock mutual fund that has a low expense ratio. While there are thousands of mutual funds, there are only a couple dozen gold-stock funds, and not all make a good investment, in our opinion. There is a second conservative way to buy gold stocks that most of the investing public is not yet aware of: gold royalty companies. These are the least-risky gold stocks because they buy a fixed percentage interest in a mines gross production and let the mining company do the dirty work. In other words, they profit as gold is mined and the price rises, but they have no risks to production troubles or rising costs. Theyre conservative but dont mistake this to mean they wont be profitable: one royalty company was our top performer in 2008, and another topped our portfolio in 2009 and 2010. And while gold stocks as a group were down in 2011, two of our three royalty company recommendations were up for the year. When gold (and silver) take off again, profit margins of these companies will soar, as will their share prices.

Our Secret to Picking Gold Stocks

When it comes to picking gold stocks, BIG GOLD
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Major Producers. These companies have multiple deposits, usually in multiple countries, and are considered majors because of the size of their reserves and market cap. Generally, a major produces over one million ounces of gold per year. They tend to carry less risk than smaller companies, and their stock prices are less volatile. Mid-Tier (or Intermediate) Producers. A midtier company produces 100,000 to 1 million ounces of gold per year. Risk varies from company to company. Perhaps more so than the majors, their profitability is closely tied to the price of gold; as gold rises, these companies will show exponentially greater profits. Small Producers. These are companies that are either just starting to produce, have smaller operations, or just one mine. They tend to have higher risk because they may lack diversification and are thus vulnerable if they experience a problem with their primary project. Yet they tend to see the highest growth profile, and as they add reserves or other properties, the market will typically revalue the business and reprice its stock upward. More risk, but more upside potential.

seeks out the most undervalued and makes them long-term holdings. We do it by analyzing the standard metrics: P/E ratios, revenue growth, market capitalization (or market cap), and debt/ equity. That last one is particularly important; if a company is carrying too much debt and has to refinance to fund operations, its not likely to raise the cash on very favorable terms. But there are other factors unique to our sector that must be considered. We know demand is raging and supply dwindling, so we look closely at what proven reserves a company has in the ground, how quickly theyll be able to get them out, and at what cost. Once we know this, we can calculate a net asset value for each miner that enables us to compare it to its peers. This net asset value, put through our proprietary mathematical model, allows us to assign each company a number we call the Valuation Ratio (VR). A VR of 1.0 denotes a company that is fairly valued, so the further a stocks VR falls below 1.0, the more undervalued it is. Conversely, companies over 1.0 would be overvalued. Our valuation ratio is updated every 30 minutes during trading hours. After taking into consideration a gold (or silver) miners VR, along with the standard metrics, we then plug in the intangibles, asking questions like: Are the companys mines in politically stable areas? How is managements experience? Are the local governments supportive? And so on. The answer to some of these questions explains why we dont recommend some of the largest gold mining companies, despite having low VRs.

Opportunity from Crisis

Crisis and opportunity are as tightly bound as gold and money. The current challenging market brings with it tremendous opportunities for investors in precious metals. Many of these opportunities are presented every month in BIG GOLD from Casey Research.

Id like to invite you to give it a try for just $79 for In the end, we arrive at a list of what we believe are a full-year, 12-issue subscription. Its completely the best of the best. risk-free you may cancel any time within 90 days for a 100% refund. As soon as you subscribe, youll have access to our portfolio recommendations and all back issues. There are different sizes of gold producers, each with its own level of risk and reward. Heres the breakdown: Learn More Now!

Size Matters

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The Casey Research web site, Casey Investment Alert, Casey International Speculator, BIG GOLD, Casey Energy Confidential, Casey Energy Report, Casey Energy Opportunities, The Casey Report, Casey Extraordinary Technology, Conversations With Casey, Casey Daily Dispatch and Ed Steers Gold & Silver Daily are published by Casey Research, LLC. Information contained in such publications is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information contained in such publications is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in such publications are those of the publisher and are subject to change without notice. The information in such publications may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information. Doug Casey, Casey Research, LLC, Casey Early Opportunity Resource Fund, LLC and other entities in which he has an interest, employees, officers, family, and associates may from time to time have positions in the securities or commodities covered in these publications or web site. Corporate policies are in effect that attempt to avoid potential conflicts of interest and resolve conflicts of interest that do arise in a timely fashion. Any Casey publication or web site and its content and images, as well as all copyright, trademark and other rights therein, are owned by Casey Research, LLC. No portion of any Casey publication or web site may be extracted or reproduced without permission of Casey Research, LLC. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as conferring any license or right under any copyright, trademark or other right of Casey Research, LLC. Unauthorized use, reproduction or rebroadcast of any content of any Casey publication or web site, including communicating investment recommendations in such publication or web site to non-subscribers in any manner, is prohibited and shall be considered an infringement and/or misappropriation of the proprietary rights of Casey Research, LLC. Casey Research, LLC reserves the right to cancel any subscription at any time, and if it does so it will promptly refund to the subscriber the amount of the subscription payment previously received relating to the remaining subscription period. Cancellation of a subscription may result from any unauthorized use or reproduction or rebroadcast of any Casey publication or website, any infringement or misappropriation of Casey Research, LLCs proprietary rights, or any other reason determined in the sole discretion of Casey Research, LLC. Affiliate Notice: Casey Research has affiliate agreements in place that may include fee sharing. If you have a website or newsletter and would like to be considered for inclusion in the Casey Research affiliate program, please contact us. Likewise, from time to time Casey Research may engage in affiliate programs offered by other companies, though corporate policy firmly dictates that such agreements will have no influence on any product or service recommendations, nor alter the pricing that would otherwise be available in absence of such an agreement. As always, it is important that you do your own due diligence before transacting any business with any firm, for any product or service. 1998-2012 by Casey Research, LLC.

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