Thayer

Consultancy
Monthly Report February 2025

Carlyle A. Thayer
Director
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Thayer Consultancy
Australian Business Number
ABN 65 648 097 123

P.O. Box 435

Jamison Centre
Macquarie, A.C.T. 2614
Australia
+61 (02) 6251 1849
[email protected]

• Carlyle A. Thayer
• ScholarGPS® ID: 16323364078998
• Highly Ranked Scholar - Lifetime:
• #4 globally for scholarship on Vietnam
• To access the rankings, please visit ScholarGPS.com.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other
research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small
business in Australia in 2002.
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Table of Contents
Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs .......................................................................................................... 2

Publications ................................................................................................................................................... 4

Publications in Press ...................................................................................................................................... 4

Thayer Consultancy Publications ................................................................................................................... 4

TV, Video and Podcasts ................................................................................................................................. 4

Consultations and Engagements .................................................................................................................... 5

Peer Reviews ................................................................................................................................................. 5

Media Interviews........................................................................................................................................... 6

Thayer In the Media February 2025 ............................................................................................................... 6

Media Extracts............................................................................................................................................... 7

Future Commitments................................................................................................................................... 19

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs

[archived at Scribd.com]
1. “Public Security Group in Vietnam’s Political System,” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, February 1, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/828225446/Thayer-Public-
Security-Group-in-Vietnam-s-Political-System.
2. “Political System Constraints on Vietnam’s Police Sector,” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, February 4, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/828225923/Thayer-Political-
System-Constraints-on-Vietnam-s-Police-Sector.
3. “Vietnam and the Importance of the Spratly Islands,” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, February 5, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/828226319/Thayer-
Vietnam-and-the-Importance-of-the-Spratly-Islands.
4. “No Empathy for Cambodia in Trump’s America First World,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, February 5, 2025.
https://www.scribd.com/document/828285765/Thayer-No-Empathy-for-Cambodia-in-
Trump-s-America-First-World.
5. “U.S. Aid Suspension Impacts Dioxin Remediation in Vietnam,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, February 6, 2025.
https://www.scribd.com/document/828283736/Thayer-U-S-Aid-Suspension-Impacts-
Dioxin-Remediation-in-Vietnam.
6. “Vietnam and the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, February 6, 2025. Embargoed.
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7. “U.S. AID Suspension and Impact on Vietnam,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
February 8, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/828284144/Thayer-U-S-AID-
Suspension-and-Impact-on-Vietnam.
8. “Trump Tariffs Impact on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Vietnam,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, February 10, 2025.
https://www.scribd.com/document/828285392/Thayer-Trump-Tariffs-Impact-on-
Comprehensive-Strategic-Partnership-With-Vietnam.
9. “The Future of Nguyen Tan Dung’s Two Sons,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
February 11, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/828603212/Thayer-the-Future-
of-Nguyen-Tan-Dung-s-Two-Sons.
10. “Streamlining the State Apparatus: Pros and Cons,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
February 12, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/828602355/Thayer-
Streamlining-the-State-Apparatus-Pros-and-Cons.
11. “Reorganizing the District Police Force in Vietnam,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
February 12, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/828602945/Thayer-
Reorganizing-the-District-Police-Force-in-Vietnam.
12. “General Secretary To Lam’s Inner Circle” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February
14, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/828603535/Thayer-General-Secretary-to-
Lam-s-Inner-Circle.
13. “To Lam’s Inner Circle: Interest Group or Faction?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
February 21, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/834327491/Thayer-To-Lam-s-
Inner-Circle-Interest-Group-or-Faction.
14. “Vietnam: Central Military Commission to be Inspected,” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, February 22, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/834327810/Thayer-
Vietnam-Central-Military-Commission-to-Be-Inspected.
15. “Has Vietnam Joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative?” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, February 23, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/834328457/Thayer-Has-
Vietnam-Joined-China-s-Belt-and-Road-Initiative.
16. “What is the Strategic Purpose of Vietnam’s High-Speed Rail Links with China?” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, February 23, 2025.
https://www.scribd.com/document/834328823/Thayer-What-is-the-Strategic-Purpose-
of-Vietnam-s-High-Speed-Rail-Links-With-China.
17. “General Nguyen Tan Cuong’s Future,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February
25, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/834329402/Thayer-General-Nguyen-Tan-
Cuong-s-Future.
18. “Vietnam Issues Baselines in the Gulf of Tonkin,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
February 26, 2025. https://www.scribd.com/document/834329850/Thayer-Vietnam-
Issues-Baselines-in-the-Gulf-of-Tonkin.
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Publications
“Choppy Waters Continue in the South China Sea,” East Asia Forum, February 19, 2025.
https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/02/19/choppy-waters-continue-in-the-south-china-sea/
and https://doi.org/10.59425/eabc.1740002400.
Reprinted:
The South China Sea Is Set To Boil
19FortyFive, February 24, 2025
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/02/the-south-china-sea-is-set-to-boil/

Publications in Press
“Trump 2.0 - Modi 3.0: Challenges and Opportunities,” FPRC Journal-61, Foreign Policy
Research Centre, New Delhi. Submitted February 28, 2025.
“All Hands on Deck: Vietnam Embraces the Blue Economy,” in Rosalie Arcala Hall and Alex
Tan, eds., Maritime Security and Blue Economy in Southeast Asia (Singapore: World Scientific
Publishing, 2024). Submitted June 17, 2024.
“South China Sea: International Law Perspectives,” in Rahul Mishra, ed., Navigating
Complexities: Building Regional Trust and Stability in the South China Sea (London: Macmillan
Publishers, forthcoming). Submitted June 10, 2024.

Thayer Consultancy Publications

Thayer Consultancy Monthly Report – January 2025 (Canberra: February 5, 2025).
https://www.scribd.com/document/825766776/Thayer-Monthly-Report-1-January-2025.

TV, Video and Podcasts

Digital transformation in Vietnam, Vietnam Plus interview with Professor Carl Thayer,
University of New South Wales, February 18 2025, 1:43-1:53 minute;
https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-promoting-digital-transformation-post310124.vnp and
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xc7qgyaaWwM.
Growing tension between US and Ukraine over efforts to end war, Carlyle Thayer, Emeritus
Professor of Politics, Australian Defence Force Academy, analyses how this verbal escalation
between Trump and Zelenskyy could impact the peace process. TRT (Turkish Radio and
Television), World Now, February 22, 2025.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1duKTgNxVM.
Vietnam tackles corruption with death penalty, Patrick Winn interviews Carl Thayer,
University of New South Wales Canberra, The World, PRX and GBH Radio, Boston, February
26, 2025
https://theworld.org/segments/2025/02/26/vietnam-tackles-corruption-with-death-penalty
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Consultations and Engagements

Laos and Vietnam, 2025 Digital Society Project Survey (February 1-28, 2025), the Digital
Society Project organisers at North Dakota State University postponed this year’s DSP data
collection due to the Trump Administration’s freeze on research funding by the National
Science Foundation, February 1, 2025.
Lanni Gabriel, final-year Master student, international relations, Université libre de
Bruxelles (ULB), Belgium, Cambodia-China relations and Ream Naval Base, February 3, 2025.
Farhana Khalid, PhD student, National University of Malaysia, negotiation strategies of
Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia and the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific
Partnership (CPTPP), February 3 and 6, 2025.
Xuân Quê Hương 2025 (Homeland Spring) 2025, Reception hosted by the Embassy of the
Socialist Republic of Vietnam, Weston Neighbourhood Hall, Weston, A.C.T., February 9,
2025.
Jack Mulfinger, tenth grade student, world history course project, Scarsdale High School,
New York, significance of the battle of Dien Bien Phu, February 12, 2025.
Reception for Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of North Macedonia Timco Mucunski,
hosted by Ambassador Biljana Stefanovska Sekovska, The Marion, Regatta Point,
Canberra, A.C.T., February 12, 2025.
Vietnam Studies Group, University of Washington, suspension of U.S. aid to Vietnam,
February 15 and 18, 2025.
QS Global Academic Survey, February 18, 2025.
Affiliate Showcase, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, ADFA Library, University of
New South Wales Canberra, February 20, 2025.
Xiangyi Li, Ph.D. candidate in International Relations, Renmin University of China, China
Scholarship Council Visiting Ph.D. Student Program, February 16, 18, 21 and 24, 2025.
Markandey Rai, Chairman of GPF India, International Conference on “Peace and Security in
the Indo-Pacific Region: Significance of Ideas and Thoughts,” sponsored by Global Peace
Forum India, C. D. Deshmukh Auditorium, India International Centre, Max Mueller Marg,
Lodhi Gardens, Lodhi Estate, New Delhi, India, March 19-20, 2025, February 22, 2025.
Pouria Sarhangpour, recent PhD, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, research collaboration or
postdoctoral position, February 23, 2025.

Peer Reviews
“The Lessons of Ho Chi Minh’s Diplomatic Ideology for Vietnam Amidst Current U.S.-China
Competition,” Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, (Springer Nature), submitted.
February 4, 2025.
“Revisiting Socialization in International Relations: The Case of Inter-Party Diplomacy
Between China and Vietnam,” International Relations (Oxford), submitted February 24, 2025.
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Media Interviews
1. Nhien Nguyen, Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, February 1, 2025. public security in Vietnam’s
domestic political system.
2. Mehdi Latifi, senior editor, Azad News Agency (ANA), Tehran, Iran, February 3, 2025.
3. Nhien Nguyen, Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, February 4, 2025. public security in Vietnam’s
domestic political system.
4. Chad Williams, Agence France-Presse, Manila Bureau, February 4, 2014. US AID and
Southeast Asia.
5. Sao Phal Niseiy, Editor in Chief, Cambodianess.com, February 5, 2025.
6. Nga Pham, Benar News, February 5, 2025.
7. Quoc Vu, Radio Free Asia, February 6, 2025.
8. Quoc Vu, Radio Free Asia, February 8, 2025.
9. Benaouda Abdeddaïm, journalist, BFM (Business FM), Paris, February 10. 2025.
10. Nhien Nguyen (pen name Trung Khang), Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, February 11, 2025.
11. Wong Evon, journalist, Lianhe Zaobao, Chinese Media Group, SPH Media Ltd, Singapore,
February 12, 2025.
12. Diem Thi, reporter, Radio Free Asia, February 12, 2025.
13. Carolyn Cowan, Mongabay.com, February 14, 2025.
14. Nhien Nguyen, Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, February 14, 2025.
15. Patrick Winn, The World, PRX and GBH Public Radio, Boston. February 20, 2025.
16. Nhien Nguyen (pen name Trung Khang), Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, February 21, 2025.
17. TRT TV (Turkish Radio and Television), News Hour, February 21, 2025.
18. Mai Tran, BBC Vietnamese, February 23, 2025.
19. Vikrant Singh, Senior Subeditor, Firstpost, February 23, 2025.
20. Nhien Nguyen, Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, February 25, 2025. Nguyen Tan Cuong
21. Nga Pham, Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, February 26, 2025. Gulf of Tonkin baselines

Thayer In the Media February 2025

Interviews: 21
Trending: US AID suspension and Cambodia, US AID suspension and the Philippines, US AID
suspension and Vietnam, Vietnam campaign against corruption, Vietnam and the Central
Military Commission, Vietnam and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Vietnam and China
highspeed rail, Vietnam and the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership,
Vietnam’s domestic politics and the public security sector, Vietnam and General Nguyen Tan
Cuong, Vietnam and Gulf of Tonkin baselines, Vietnam and Nguyen Tan Dung and family,
Vietnam and the South China Sea, Vietnam restructuring the government, Vietnam
streamlining the state apparatus, Vietnam and To Lam’s inner circle
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Podcasts: Vietnam Plus

Radio interviews: BBC Vietnamese, PRX and GBH Radio (Boston), Radio Free Asia, Radio Free
Asia Vietnamese
TV interviews: TRT (Turkish Radio and Television)
Media interviews: Agence France-Presse, Azad News Agency (Tehran), Benar News, Business
FM (Paris), Cambodianess.com, Firstpost, Lianhe Zaobao (Singapore), Mongabay, Vietnam
News Agency, Vietnam Plus
Quoted by: Benar News, 19FortyFive, East Asia Forum, The Eurasian Review,
GlobalSecurity.org, The Manila Times, The Pinnacle Gazette, Vietnam Law and Legal Forum,
Viet Nam News, Vietnam Plus, Vietnam News Summary

Media Extracts*
Australian professor sees growth potential in Vietnam's apparatus streamlining policy
Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer, from the Australian Defense Force Academy at the University
of New South Wales, praised the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)'s leadership in the
country's renewal, especially the role of late General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong.
In a recent interview granted to the Vietnam
News Agency (VNA)'s correspondents in
Sydney on the occasion of the CPV's 95th
founding anniversary (February 3, 1930-2-25),
Thayer recognized the late Party chief for his
successful leadership of the CPV, overseeing
sustained economic growth averaging 5.5%
from 2011 to 2023, except during the COVID-
19 pandemic. He also highlighted Trong’s
leadership in tackling corruption and other
negative phenomena, promoting Party
building, addressing the pandemic, and earning
global recognition for the CPV’s role in foreign
affairs.
General Secretary Trong’s anti-corruption campaign made measurable progress raising
Vietnam’s score on Transparency International’s Perceptions of Corruption Index from 2.9 in
2011 to 41 in 2023. The Perception of Corruption Index ranks over 180 countries on a scale
from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 very clean. Vietnam rose from 112th to 83rd from 2011 to 2023.
According to the Australian scholar, the campaign against corruption is a necessary but not
sufficient requirement to achieve Vietnam’s development goals.
Vietnam needs to continue the corruption combat but something else must be done. Vietnam
must streamline the state apparatus in order facilitate the modernization of its means of
production to take advantage of the Fourth Industrial Revolution such as technological
innovation, digitization, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, said Thayer.

*
May include media extracts not included in previous Thayer Consultancy Monthly Reports.
 8

The CPV has identified that Vietnam is on the brink of entering a new era of growth. Regarding
the goals that Vietnam has set for 2030 and 2045, he said the objectives are necessary to
prevent Vietnam from falling into the middle-income traps, adding the factors that led to
Vietnam’s current growth such as labor-intensive manufacturing is no longer sufficient to
boost income and productivity to higher.
According to Thayer, the ongoing campaign to streamline the state apparatus provides
Vietnam with the opportunity to develop the capacity needed to transition to technology-
intensive production. This shift could foster a growing middle class and boost domestic
consumption.
Vietnam has the potential to become a reliable player in the global supply chain for high-tech
products like computer chips, solar panels, and electric vehicles, Thayer suggested. He
recommended leveraging the country’s expanding network of strategic partnerships to
achieve this.
Citing the myriad challenges Vietnam faces such as overcoming bureaucratic resistance to
change, reforming its bureaucratic structures, and finding foreign investment to upgrade
human resources for the new technological era, Thayer recommended developing a highly
skilled technology-savvy workforce; developing well-integrated domestic value chains;
proactively deepen regional trade integration; shifting from labor-intensive production to
technology-intensive high-value production; and reducing carbon-intensive manufacturing to
low-carbon production.- (VNA/VLLF)
Vietnam Law and Legal Forum, February 1, 2025
https://vietnamlawmagazine.vn/australian-professor-sees-growth-potential-in-vietnams-
apparatus-streamlining-policy-73465.html
Reprinted:
Australian professor sees growth potential in Vietnam's apparatus streamlining policy
Viet Nam News, February 3, 2025.
Dow Jones, Factiva
Vietnam News Summary, February 3, 2025.
Dow Jones, Factiva

Vietnam's Economic Outlook: Resilience And Opportunities For 2025

Technology remains central to Vietnam’s growth strategy. Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer
underlines the need for Vietnam to modernize its production mechanisms to seize
opportunities from the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Thayer noted, "Vietnam needs to
continue the corruption combat but something else must be done." His call for streamlined
government processes aims to facilitate innovation, digitalization, and technological
advancements.
Evrim Agaci, The Pinnacle Gazette, February 1, 2025
https://evrimagaci.org/tpg/vietnams-economic-outlook-resilience-and-opportunities-for-
2025-176615
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International friends hail Communist Party of Việt Nam's leadership

Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer, from the Australian Defence Force Academy at the University
of New South Wales, praised the CPV's leadership in the country's renewal, especially the role
of late General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng.
Thayer recognised the late Party chief for his successful leadership of the CPV, overseeing
sustained economic growth averaging 5.5 per cent from 2011 to 2023, except during the
COVID-19 pandemic. He also highlighted Trọng’s leadership in tackling corruption and other
negative phenomena, promoting Party building, addressing the pandemic, and earning global
recognition for the CPV’s role in foreign affairs.
General Secretary Trọng’s anti-corruption campaign made measurable progress raising Việt
Nam’s score on Transparency International’s Perceptions of Corruption Index from 2.9 in
2011 to 41 in 2023. The Perceptions of Corruption Index ranks over 180 countries on a scale
from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 very clean.
According to the Australian scholar, the campaign against corruption is a necessary but not
sufficient requirement to achieve Việt Nam’s development goals.
Việt Nam needs to continue the corruption combat but something else must be done. Việt
Nam must streamline the state apparatus in order to facilitate the modernisation of its means
of production to take advantage of the Fourth Industrial Revolution such as technological
innovation, digitisation, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, said Thayer.
The CPV has identified that Việt Nam is on the brink of entering a new era of growth.
Regarding the goals that Việt Nam has set for 2030 and 2045, he said the objectives are
necessary to prevent Việt Nam from falling into the middle-income traps, adding the factors
that led to Việt Nam’s current growth such as labour-intensive manufacturing is no longer
sufficient to boost income and productivity to higher.
According to Thayer, the ongoing campaign to streamline the state apparatus provides Việt
Nam with the opportunity to develop the capacity needed to transition to technology-
intensive production. This shift could foster a growing middle class and boost domestic
consumption.
Việt Nam has the potential to become a reliable player in the global supply chain for high-
tech products like computer chips, solar panels, and electric vehicles, Thayer suggested. He
recommended leveraging the country’s expanding network of strategic partnerships to
achieve this.
Citing the myriad challenges Việt Nam faces such as overcoming bureaucratic resistance to
change, reforming its bureaucratic structures, and finding foreign investment to upgrade
human resources for the new technological era, Thayer recommended developing a highly
skilled technology-savvy workforce; developing well-integrated domestic value chains;
proactively deepen regional trade integration; shifting from labour-intensive production to
technology-intensive high-value production; and reducing carbon-intensive manufacturing to
low-carbon production.
Viet Nam News, February 2, 2025
https://vietnamnews.vn/politics-laws/1691510/international-friends-hail-communist-party-
of-viet-nam-s-leadership.html.
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Vietnam builds islands in South China Sea amid tension, challenges

Hanoi’s island-building program stemmed from a Communist Party resolution in 2007 on
maritime strategy toward the year 2020, according to Carlyle Thayer, a Vietnam analyst at
the University of New South Wales in Australia.
The resolution set out an integrated strategy to develop coastal areas, an exclusive
economic zone, and 27 land features in the South China Sea with the objective that this
area would contribute between 53% and 55% of the gross domestic product by 2020,
Thayer said.
It was only in 2021 that Vietnam began a modest program of landfill and infrastructure
construction on its features in the Spratly Islands, Thayer said.
By that time, China had completed the construction of its “Big Three” artificial islands in
the South China Sea – Fiery Cross, Mischief and Subi reefs – and equipped them with
runways and military facilities.
The island-building program focuses mainly on the so-called integrated marine economy,
the analyst told Radio Free Asia, noting that there are only modest defenses such as
pillboxes, trenches and gun emplacements on the newly developed features.
Vietnam has long been wary of causing tension with China but its increasing assertiveness
had led to a rethink in Hanoi.
“Vietnam has not placed major weapon systems on its land features that would threaten
China’s artificial islands,” Thayer said.
“But no doubt the rise in Chinese aggressiveness against the Philippines after the election
of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. reinforced Vietnam’s determination not to leave its island features
in the Spratlys exposed.”
“Vietnamese occupation also serves to deny China the opportunity to occupy these
features as China did when it took control of unoccupied Mischief Reef belonging to the
Philippines in 1984,” he said.
Benar News, February 6, 2025
https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/south-china-sea-spratly-islands-
02062025154459.html.
Reprinted:
Vietnam Builds Islands In South China Sea Amid Tension, Challenges
The Eurasian Review, February 7, 2025
https://www.eurasiareview.com/07022025-vietnam-builds-islands-in-south-china-sea-
amid-tension-challenges/.
GlobalSecurity.org, February 8. 2025.
Dow Jones Factiva
 11

USAID bị dừng hoạt động: chuyên gia lo ngại về ảnh hưởng xấu đến Việt Nam
USAID suspended: experts are concerned about the negative impact on Vietnam
Theo chuyên gia về Việt Nam, Giáo sư Carl Thayer từ Đại học New South Wales, Canberra
(Úc), [Professor Carl Thayer from the University of New South Wales, Canberra (Australia)]
một đánh giá về tình trạng ô nhiễm dioxin tại Biên Hòa ước tính rằng nửa triệu mét khối đất
đã bị ô nhiễm.
Ông nói về hậu quả việc giải ngân của USAID bị đình chỉ trong 90 ngày lên dự án khử độc sân
bay Biên Hoà:
“Điều này sẽ ảnh hưởng ngay lập tức đến ba dự án lớn dự kiến hoàn thành vào tháng 4: lắp
đặt hệ thống xử lý nhiệt, bàn giao đất đã được làm sạch (khắc phục) dioxin và điều chỉnh thỏa
thuận tài trợ để tăng nguồn tài trợ không hoàn lại của Hoa Kỳ từ 300 triệu USD lên 430 triệu.
“Các cá nhân làm việc tại sân bay Biên Hòa và cộng đồng địa phương đang phải chịu rủi ro do
mức độ ô nhiễm dioxin cao. Mối nguy hiểm này có thể được giải quyết bằng cách phong tỏa
các điểm nóng dioxin nhưng không giải quyết được vấn đề lâu dài về cách xử lý và khử nhiễm
khu vực. Các cơ sở đặc biệt sẽ phải được xây dựng để chứa riêng đất ô nhiễm ở mức độ thấp
và đất ô nhiễm ở mức độ cao.”…
Giáo sư Carl Thayer cho biết ước tính có 4,8 triệu người Việt Nam đã bị phơi nhiễm dioxin,
trong đó có ba triệu người đang phải chịu những ảnh hưởng lâu dài đến sức khỏe. Theo Hội
Nạn nhân Chất độc da cam/Dioxin Việt Nam, tình trạng ngộ độc dioxin đã kéo dài đến bốn thế
hệ: 850.000 nạn nhân ở thế hệ thứ hai, 350.000 nạn nhân ở thế hệ thứ ba và 500 nạn nhân ở
thế hệ thứ tư. Chỉ riêng tại thành phố Hồ Chí Minh đã có hơn 20.000 nạn nhân.
“Người ta ước tính có khoảng 1,2 triệu nạn nhân Việt Nam bị phơi nhiễm dioxin. Họ cần được
đánh giá y tế thường xuyên, được điều trị y tế, có nhà ở và chăm sóc, và nếu không bị tàn tật,
thì phải được đào tạo nghề. Nếu Hoa Kỳ cắt giảm tài trợ, nhiều người Việt Nam có thể bị ngộ
độc dioxin hơn, do đó làm tăng chi phí y tế công cộng của Việt Nam,” giáo sư Carl Thayer viết
trong email gửi RFA…
Giáo sư Carl Thayer cho rằng nếu USAID bị dừng hoạt động như một biện pháp tiết kiệm chi
phí của chính phủ Mỹ thì Việt Nam sẽ phải tự mình giải quyết tác động liên tục của dioxin đối
với môi trường và sức khỏe của những người làm việc tại sân bay Biên Hòa và cộng đồng xung
quanh cũng như người Việt Nam bị phơi nhiễm dioxin.
Nhưng theo ông, tổn hại lớn hơn là Quan hệ Đối tác Chiến lược toàn diện giữa hai nước vừa
được thiết lập vào năm ngoái.
“Quan hệ kinh tế và quốc phòng Hoa Kỳ-Việt Nam khó có thể bị ảnh hưởng nhưng việc cắt
giảm tài trợ của Hoa Kỳ sẽ để lại một lỗ hổng lớn trong mối quan hệ song phương.” - Giáo sư
Carl Thayer nhận định.
Quốc Vũ, Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, February 7, 2025
https://www.rfa.or`g/vietnamese/chinh-tri/2025/02/07/anh-huong-cua-viec-dung-cac-du-
an-cua-usaid-o-viet-
nam/?fbclid=IwY2xjawIWae5leHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHftiPEQRoh4JoSNZlbVzMTaMResocqbKQl
G8urGFUfxKBuYKUabIjCTBPg_aem_AkhtHA32e9LV8eQLhrpkAg.
 12

Gia tộc Nguyễn Tấn Dũng: ông Trọng nhổ cỏ quên nhổ rễ
Nguyen Tan Dung’s family: Mr. Trong pulled the grass and neglected to pull out the roots
Trọng đồng ý không có bất kỳ hành động trừng phạt nào đối với Dũng và gia đình trực hệ của
ông.”
- Theo Giáo sư Carlyle A. Thayer
“Từ lâu đã có tin đồn rằng Nguyễn Phú Trọng và Nguyễn Tấn Dũng đã dàn xếp một thỏa thuận
vào tháng 1 năm 2016. Dũng đồng ý từ chức thủ tướng, ngừng hoạt động chính trị và lặng lẽ
nghỉ hưu. Trọng đồng ý không có bất kỳ hành động trừng phạt nào đối với Dũng và gia đình
trực hệ của ông.”- Theo Giáo sư Carlyle A. Thayer ở Đại học New South Wales – Canberra
[Professor Carlyle A. Thayer, University of New South Wales – Canberra].
“Gần như chắc chắn rằng cả Nghị và Triết sẽ tiếp tục giữ chức vụ cao cấp của đảng sau đại
hội đảng toàn quốc lần thứ XIV dưới sự bảo trợ của Tổng Bí thư Tô Lâm.” - Giáo sư Carlyle A.
Thayer nói thêm.
Trung Khang, Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, February 11, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/thoi-su/2025/02/11/gia-toc-nguyen-tan-dung-ong-trong-
nho-co-quen-nho-re/

Walking the Tightrope: Can Cambodia Cope with Trump’s US Soft Power Retreat?
Carlyle Thayer, an Emeritus Professor of Politics at the University of New South Wales,
criticized the U.S. government's suspension of foreign aid for 90 days as utterly irresponsible,
outrageous, and counterproductive.
“The suspension of USAID was abrupt, poorly executed, and confusing," Thayer noted, adding
that details were unclear as Secretary of State Mario Rubio had to issue waivers for some
programs.
Thayer also highlighted that this decision puts Cambodia, a key recipient of U.S. health aid, at
serious risk by potentially disrupting essential public health initiatives.
For instance, he mentioned that the Cambodian Mine Action Center has halted operations in
eight provinces due to inadequate funding from service partners. Rural communities in these
provinces will remain at risk until funding is restored.
Cambodia has twenty-five provinces, fifteen of which have been declared mine-free. Except
for Ratanakiri (northeast) and Kampong Thom (centre), Thayer explained that the remaining
10 provinces are located along Cambodia’s borders in the north and west.
He stressed while the Khmer Rouge bears responsibility for significant mining in these
provinces, this does not relieve the U.S. of its moral obligation to assist in demining explosive
remnants of war (ERW)…
Allowing China to Fill the Void
Thayer stated that Trump’s actions are counterproductive, fundamentally undermining U.S.
national security and potentially turning the U.S. into a region’s least trusted partner.
“Aid-recipient states will no longer trust any of the commitments offered by the Trump
Administration,” he said.
 13

Aside from Cambodia, Thayer said the absence of the United States as a provider of
development assistance will undermine the U.S.-ASEAN partnership and allow China to fill the
void…
Trump Vindicates the U.S. as an Unreliable Partner
For Thayer, any gap left by the U.S. and other democratic countries would allow China to take
advantage of this situation.
“Remember when the European Commission suspended its Anything But Arms no-tariffs
policy on Cambodia, China stepped in to support the garment industry,” Thayer explained,
adding, “China has long depicted the United States as unreliable. The Trump administration’s
actions will confirm China’s perspective.”
However, he also noted that China also faces constraints due to its sluggish economic growth.
“This has led Beijing to pull back from large and expensive infrastructure projects,” he said…
Regarding Western nations filling the void left by the Trump administration, Carlyle Thayer
suggested that these countries, while supporting the U.S. in containing China's influence,
could revise and restructure their development aid programs to offer alternatives to nations
caught between the two powers.
However, he pointed out that Western states face limitations due to the global scope of
USAID programs, necessitating a triage approach.
“Also, much depends on whether a full-blown trade war erupts between the U.S. and China
and whether Trump slaps tariffs on Europe,” he noted.
Sao Phal Niseiy, Cambodianess.com, February 12, 2025,
https://cambodianess.com/article/walking-the-tightrope-can-cambodia-cope-with-trumps-
us-soft-power-retreat

Un Vietnam inclusif dans le nucléaire civil, l’armement et l’électronique : sur tous les fronts
An inclusive Vietnam in civil nuclear power, armaments and electronics: on all fronts
Canons sud-coréens : Il n’y a pas lieu de s’en étonner outre mesure, dans l’analyse de Carlyle
Thayer. Ce connaisseur du Vietnam à l’UNSW (Académie des forces de défense australiennes)
commence par décompter les neuf “partenariats stratégiques globaux” de Hanoi, allant de
celui avec la Chine (en 2008) jusqu’à celui avec la Malaisie (en 2024). Et, insiste-t-il, la
croissance économique du pays “fournit les moyens financiers'“ pour “l’effort de
modernisation le plus vaste de l’histoire de l’Armée populaire du Vietnam”. La première
acquisition la plus significative devrait porter sur une vingtaine de canons automoteurs K9 du
constructeur sud-coréen Hanwha, ce qui, à en croire l’expert australien, mobilisera pas moins
de 20 % à 25 % d’une année du budget d’équipement de défense.
Déverser : Pour l’heure, en tout cas, ce n’est pas ce qui préserve Hanoi de la nouvelle politique
américaine de droits de douane tous azimuts. Vu de Canberra, Carlyle Thayer situe même le
risque pour le Vietnam à un double niveau : le renchérissement de leurs propres produits à
l’exportation et puis une contraction de la demande chinoise en biens vietnamiens “et/ou”
que la Chine ne “déverse” ses marchandises qui lui restent sur les bras vers le débouché
vietnamien. Ce raisonnement, on le retrouve dans la tribune d’un membre du Conseil
 14

consultatif de la politique financière et monétaire, un organe placé directement auprès du

Premier ministre vietnamien. Quatre jours après l’investiture présidentielle à Washington, le
chef de la diplomatie américaine, Marco Rubio, a soulevé le sujet des 123 milliards de dollars
en 2024 d’excédent commercial du Vietnam avec les États-Unis. Les surtaxes de 25 % sur les
importations américaines d’acier et d’aluminium, annoncées dimanche, pourraient annoncer
le reflux. Pour ce qui concerne l’acier, la production vietnamienne se classe au cinquième rang
des approvisionnements extérieurs des États-Unis.
Benaouda Abdeddaim, Business FM (Paris), L’envers du globe, February 13, 2025
https://envers-du-globe-benaouda-
abdeddaim.kessel.media/posts/pst_205baf7830be410c8125d3ce6216aac0/vietnam-sur-
tous-les-tableaux---nouvelle-zelande-court-circuitee---menace-mal-assuree-sur-le-mexique

Tinh giản ngành công an: bỏ chỗ này, tăng chỗ khác
Streamline the police sector: eliminate in one place, increase in another
Giáo sư Carl Thayer [Professor Carl Thayer] nhận định sự việc với RFA qua email hôm 11 tháng
2 năm 2025:
“Tóm lại, lực lượng Công an cấp huyện sẽ tiếp tục hoạt động cho đến khi Quốc hội thông qua
luật cho phép cơ cấu tổ chức mới của Chính phủ và Bộ Công an ban hành Nghị định quy định
chi tiết về cơ cấu tổ chức mới trong đó có việc giải thể lực lượng Công an cấp huyện”.
Diễm Thi, Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, February 14, 2025
https://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/thoi-su/2025/02/15/cong-an-tinh-gian-bo-may-cong-an-
cap-huyen/

General Vo Nguyen Giap in the heart of int’l friends

Carl Thayer, Emeritus Professor at the
University of New South Wales, described
General Giap as a self-taught military
strategist who combined elements of
Vietnamese military tradition and the
theory of the people’s war, adding Giap
learned through battlefield experience how
to conduct people’s war. “It was General Vo
Nguyen Giap who defeated the French, one
of the most modern military forces in the
world at his time.”
Carl Thayer, Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales (Photo: VNA)
Linh Ha, Thu Huong, Trung Khanh and Ngoc Tu, Vietnam News Agency, February 20, 2025
https://special.vietnamplus.vn/2025/02/20/general-vo-nguyen-giap-in-the-heart-of-intl-
friends/
 15

Streamlining state apparatus key to Vietnam’s new breakthroughs

“Vietnam has achieved a high consensus in streamlining the state apparatus, which is a key
factor in determining the success of organisational reforms. Party General Secertary To Lam
secured the agreement of the Politburo and the Central Committee of the Communist Party of
Vietnam to streamline the apparatus of the Party and state from top to bottom, with the
process scheduled for completion by the end of the first quarter of 2025. It is clear that there
is a strong political will to carry out these reforms.“
Carl Thayer, Professor at University of New South Wales
Linh Ha and Nguyen Yen, Vietnam News Agency, February 20, 2025.
https://special.vietnamplus.vn/2025/02/20/streamlining-state-apparatus-key-to-vietnams-
new-breakthroughs/.

Streamlining apparatus to drive digital transformation in Vietnam

Sharing the same view with Nagy, Professor Carl Thayer from the Australian Defence Force
Academy, University of New South Wales, said streamlining the state apparatus would
provide Vietnam with more resources to invest in developing a highly skilled and tech-savvy
workforce.
“This, in turn, would boost labour productivity and help Vietnam escape from the “middle-
income trap” while achieving its strategic goals of becoming a developing country with
modern industry and upper-middle income by 2030 and a developed socialist country with
high income by 2045.”
Carl Thayer, Professor at University of New South Wales
Linh Ha – Nguyen Yen. Vietnam News Agency, February 20, 2025
https://special.vietnamplus.vn/2025/02/20/streamlining-apparatus-to-drive-digital-
transformation-in-vietnam.

Maritime disputes threaten South China Sea biodiversity

Carl Thayer, a political scientist at the University of New South Wales in Australia, warned of
the dire consequences of the depletion of the South China Sea's reef resources. "In 20 years'
time, what are you going to have? They might have artificial bases, but they're killing off the
ecosystem and biodiversity. And as environmental issues rise up over the next several
decades, that will come home to roost."
Thayer continued: "China is all over the world with its deep-water fishing, so they can just
move on. But all the people in Southeast Asia who are living [nearby], they're going to be
sitting there with the South China Sea ruined, devastated."
Editorial Board, The Manila Times, February 21, 2025
https://www.manilatimes.net/2025/02/21/opinion/editorial/maritime-disputes-threaten-
south-china-sea-biodiversity/2059711.
 16

Nhóm lợi ích của ông Tô Lâm gồm những ai?

Who is in Mr. To Lam's interest group?
Theo giáo sư Carlyle Thayer, một chuyên gia nghiên cứu chính trị Việt Nam [Professor Carlyle
Thayer, a Vietnamese political research expert], thì ông Tô Lâm đã hình thành được cho mình
một “nhóm lợi ích” riêng, với các thành viên đại diện cho những cơ quan quyền lực nhất của
hệ thống chính trị…
Sự xuất hiện của họ báo hiệu sự đoàn kết và truyền tải thông điệp đến các phe phái khác rằng
vì họ có sự ủng hộ của Tổng Bí thư nên vị trí của họ không nên bị thách thức.
-Giáo sư Carlyle Thayer
Còn giáo sư Carlyle Thayer thì cho rằng phe của ông Tô Lâm đang muốn truyền tải một thông
điệp đến các phe nhóm khác trong Đảng, rằng họ có sự ủng hộ và bảo vệ của ngài Tổng Bí thư,
do vậy không ai nên thách thức vị trí của họ:
“Khi ông Trọng qua đời thì phe nhóm của ông đã bị phe Hưng Yên của ông Tô Lâm lấn át.
Những người này xuất hiện trước công chúng cùng với Lâm vì họ làm việc với ông hàng ngày
với tư cách là thành viên Bộ Chính trị và quân đội. Sự xuất hiện của họ báo hiệu sự đoàn kết
và truyền tải thông điệp đến các phe phái khác rằng vì họ có sự ủng hộ của Tổng Bí thư nên vị
trí của họ không nên bị thách thức.”…
Điều này, theo giáo sư Carlye Thayer, thể hiện “sự tin tưởng” của Tổng Bí thư Tô Lâm đối với
những người này.
Ông Lương Tam Quang, Bộ trưởng Bộ Công an, sinh năm 1965, “sẽ phục vụ một nhiệm kỳ 5
năm trọn vẹn tại Ban Chấp hành Trung ương và rất có thể sẽ là ủy viên đương nhiên của Bộ
Chính trị mới.”- Giáo sư Carlyle A. Thayer nhận định.
Ông Nguyễn Duy Ngọc, sinh năm 1964, đến từ tỉnh Hưng Yên, là ủy viên mới nhất của Bộ
Chính trị và là Chủ nhiệm Ủy ban Kiểm tra Trung ương. Ông Ngọc rất có khả năng sẽ tiếp tục
được bầu lại vào Bộ Chính trị.
Người tiếp theo là Thứ trưởng Quốc phòng Hoàng Xuân Chiến, sinh năm 1961, cũng đến từ
tỉnh Hưng Yên như ông Tô Lâm, phục vụ đủ hai nhiệm kỳ năm năm tại Ban Chấp hành Trung
ương khi đại hội đảng toàn quốc tiếp theo được tổ chức. Ông sẽ 64 tuổi vào tháng 1 năm
2026, tức thuộc diện được ở lại.
Hiện tại quân đội đang có hai đại diện trong Bộ Chính trị, cơ quan quyền lực nhất của Đảng,
gồm các ông Phan Văn Giang và Lương Cường. Ông Giang sẽ 65 tuổi và ông Cường sẽ 69 tuổi
khi đại hội đảng toàn quốc lần thứ 14 triệu tập.
Theo Giáo sư Carlyle A. Thayer “trừ khi có thể đưa ra trường hợp một trong hai ông Giang và
Cường đã có thành tích đặc biệt xuất sắc, nếu không thì cả hai đều có khả năng nghỉ hưu.” …
Giáo sư Carlyle Thayer cho rằng việc hình thành và củng cố phe phái sẽ còn ráo riết hơn từ
này đến Đại hội 14.
Với vai trò trưởng tiểu ban nhân sự của Đại hội 14, ông Tô Lâm có thể tác động đến danh sách
các ứng viên vào Trung ương khóa mới, những ứng viên do ông chọn sẽ tiếp tục làm ứng cử
viên cho cuộc bầu cử vào các vị trí quan trọng khác của bộ máy như Bộ Chính trị. Tuy nhiên,
theo giáo sư Carlyle Thayer, đây sẽ là một cuộc mặc cả quyết liệt:
 17

“Sẽ có sự mặc cả quyết liệt để đảm bảo rằng tất cả các khu vực và nhóm lợi ích đều được đại
diện. Sẽ có một số cuộc bỏ phiếu kín từ bây giờ đến đại hội toàn quốc lần thứ 14 để xác định
ai sẽ tiếp tục bỏ phiếu và ai sẽ bị loại.” – Giáo sư Carlyle A. Thayer nói.
Quyết định cuối cùng về việc ai sẽ được bầu vào Ban Chấp hành Trung ương mới sẽ nằm trong
tay 1.500 đại biểu tham dự đại hội đảng toàn quốc lần thứ 14.
Trung Khang, Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, February 21, 2025
https://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/thoi-su/2025/02/21/to-lam-xay-dung-noi-cac-rieng/

China sets up live-fire exercise zone near Taiwan ‘without warning’

The past week’s exercises around the region are a clear example of saber rattling according
to regional specialist Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor at Australia’s University of New South
Wales.
“Given China’s continued bullying of the Philippines, Beijing is sending a message to regional
states as well as the Trump Administration that Beijing will defend its sovereign rights and
interests whenever they are challenged,” he told Radio Free Asia.
Edited by Mike Firn, Radio Free Asia, February 26, 2025
Updated with comment from Carl Thayer and Taiwan’s defense ministry
https://www.rfa.org/english/southchinasea/2025/02/26/china-navy-taiwan-live-fire-
exercise-kaohsiung/
Reprinted:
GlobalSecurity.org, February 28, 2025
Dow Jones Factiva

Vietnam tackles corruption with death penalty

Vietnam has been known as one of the most corrupt countries in the world, from
embezzlement at the highest levels to small bribes for traffic cops. But the Communist
government there is cracking down, sending corrupt officials to jail and, sometimes,
sentencing the worst offenders to death. The World’s Asia Correspondent Patrick Winn
explains one case, where one of the country’s richest women may be able to save her life by
paying back billions of dollars.
Interview with Carl Thayer, University of New South Wales Canberra by Patrick Winn, The
World, PRX and GBH Radio, Boston, February 26, 2025
https://theworld.org/segments/2025/02/26/vietnam-tackles-corruption-with-death-penalty

Chinese military patrols Scarborough Shoal amid rising tension

The latest exercises around the region are a clear example of saber-rattling, according to
regional specialist Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor at Australia’s University of New South
Wales.
 18

“Given China’s continued bullying of the Philippines, Beijing is sending a message to

regional states as well as the Trump administration that it will defend its sovereign rights
and interests whenever they are challenged,” he told Radio Free Asia, a news service
affiliated with BenarNews.
BenarNews, February 28, 2025
https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/scarborough-shoal-fighter-jets-
02282025082358.html
Reprinted:
GlobalSecurity.org, March 2, 2025.
Dow Jones Factiva

Future Commitments
Laos and Vietnam, 2025 Digital Society Project Survey, Center for the Study of Digital Society,
North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota, TBC.
Resource Speaker, “Philippines’ Resistance to China’s Illegal, Coercive, Aggressive and
Deceptive Actions in the West Philippine Sea: U.S. and Allied Responses,” Presentation to
Latest Developments in the South China Sea and Their Impact on Security, Peace and Stability
in the West Philippine Sea and the World,” 15th Virtual International Conference on South
China (West Philippine) Sea,” sponsored by the National Youth Movement or the West
Philippine Sea, Manila, March 1, 2025.
Keynote Speaker, ASEAN Centrality in Theory and Reality: A Contribution to the Settlement
of the South China Sea Conflict? Hybrid Conference (virtual and real), Universität Hamburg,
Germany, November 21, 2025.

February 17, 2025

Hi Carlyle,
Congratulations, you were just rated 5 stars on the ‘Rate Your Professor’ portal on
AcademicJobs.com.
About Rate My Professor
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their Professors, Lecturers & Higher Ed mentors. We created the portal to acknowledge the
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rating will also contribute towards your institution's ‘Student Satisfaction Rating’ and your
students’ ratings can be made public if you wish to use them in your career advancement
opportunities.
Viewing Rate My Professor comments: Go to the AcademicJobs portal
 19

THAYER CONSULTANCY PUBLICATIONS

BIBLIOGRAPHIES
Australia-Vietnam Relations, 1973-2023: Papers and Presentations by Carlyle A. Thayer,
Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No 1, June 24, 2023.
South China Sea Code of Conduct, 2018-2023: A Bibliography, Thayer Consultancy
Bibliography No. 2, August 6, 2023.
Vietnam’s Relations with the Russian Federation, Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No. 3,
August 16, 2023.
Vietnam People’s Army, 1976-2023, Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No. 4, October, 2023.
Maritime Issues in the South China Sea Region, Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No. 5,
October 2024.
Major Papers Delivered to International Conferences on the South China Sea, 2009-2024,
Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No.6, October 2024.
Vietnam People’s Army, 1987-2024: Bibliography of Publications by Carlyle A. Thayer, Thayer
Consultancy Bibliography No.7, December 2024.

DISCUSSION PAPERS
Rough Waters Ahead for Vietnam-China Relations: A Critical Review, Thayer Consultancy
Discussion Paper No. 1, October 2020.
Vietnam Aligns with China and Plays the United States: A Critique, Thayer Consultancy
Discussion Paper No. 2, March 2023.
Recent Leadership Change in Vietnam: A Critique, Thayer Consultancy Discussion Paper No. 3,
March 2023.
Vietnam-ASEAN Relations Under General Secretary To Lam, Thayer Consultancy Discussion
Paper No. 4, August 2024.
IISS on Vietnam’s New Leadership Slate: A Critique, Thayer Consultancy Discussion Paper No.
5, November 2024.

READERS
Leadership Change in Vietnam, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 1, April 11, 2023.
Vietnam People’s Army, 2016-2020, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 2, April 12, 2023.
Vietnam People’s Army, 2021-2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 3, April 12, 2023.
Vietnam-United States Relations, 2021, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 4, April 19, 2023.
Vietnam-United States Relations, 2022, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 5, April 20, 2023.
Vietnam-United States Relations, 2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 6, April 21, 2023.
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Vietnam and Australia: Strategic Partners, 2018-2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 7, April
22, 2023.
Revival of the Quad, 2017-2018, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 8, May 15, 2023.
The Quad and the Indo-Pacific, 2019-2013, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 9, May 15, 2023.
Cambodia, 2021-2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 10, July 25, 2023.
Vietnam-Russia Relations, 2016-2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 11, August 20, 2023.
Vo Van Thuong Resigns as President of Viet Nam, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 12, March
27, 2024.
Leadership Change in Vietnam, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 13, May 27, 2024.
Vietnam-Russia Relations, 2023-2024, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 14, July 6, 2024.
General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s Legacy, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 15, August 10,
2024.
To Lam General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Thayer Consultancy Reader No.
16, August 23, 2024.
Maritime Disputes and Defence Cooperation in the South China Sea, Thayer Consultancy
Reader No. 17, August 26, 2024.