Ding 1

Asher Ding

Emily Brauer-Rogers

Writing 60

7 February 2024

Climate Change Economics in Aviation

As a younger child, my father often drove me at night to John Wayne Airport to watch

the runways on the airport. There, patiently standing next to a barbed wire fence, I watched as a

plane taxied to one end of the runway every few minutes and aligned its nose with the other end.

Then, a roar enveloped the air as the plane’s engines revved up for takeoff, its wheels whirred

faster and faster, its nose lifted to point at the shallow black night, and the whole flying machine

lifted like a swallow from a marsh before it slowly shrunk and merged with the light pollution in

the distance.

The air smelled of jet fuel.

However, what I could not smell were the nitrous oxides and carbon dioxide within the

fuels that were also expelled. Indeed, 2% of the world’s CO2 emissions (a number still very

much growing), a greenhouse gas (GHG), originate from aviation (“Aviation”), along with more

potent GHG’s in fuel emissions such as nitrous oxides (NOx’s), exacerbating the already visible

effects of climate change we see globally. The GHG’s end up absorbing heat energy and trapping

it in the atmosphere, causing temperatures to build and leading to global warming, the main

component of perhaps humanity’s greatest current crisis: climate change. To root aviation’s

contribution to this issue, it started with the realization of the economic potential of commercial

jetliners when Boeing built off British aircraft manufacturer de Havilland’s Comet, the world’s

first of its kind (“Comet’s Tale”), with the 707 entering commercial service in 1958. With this
 Ding 2

leap, Boeing took advantage of the jetliner’s potential to attract more consumers, as it lacked

vibration and was fuel efficient, the latter of which helped lower fares (“The Jet Age”), thus

allowing, among others, greater passenger capacity and range. Ultimately, this solidified air

travel globally, and demand for air travel only increased from there, which correspondingly

translated to more emissions and GHG’s. Beyond air travel, cars and utilities are also largely

powered by fossil fuels in the U.S., so convincing people to change from this norm would be

difficult. The same can be said for fossil fuel industries, who spend millions lobbying legislatures

and the public to prevent anti-oil measures being passed, and are unlikely to be willing to let go

of their profits. The big idea is: commercial jet airliners will continue to emit fossil fuels in the

future and worsen climate change because fossil fuels are an indispensable component for almost

all those involved in the aircraft market: countries themselves, the aviation industry, the jet fuel

manufacturers (fossil fuel industries), and the passengers. - thesis needs to be problem, why

urgent, what causes

One roadblock is countries’ dependence on aviation to fuel their economy. Indeed, senior

associate of Victoria University at Wellington Paul Callister states the rapid growth of the

aviation industry is driven by “tourism and airport industries, emissions pricing and substitutes,

and the distribution of air travel,” and has not found solutions in technologies such as

“sustainable fuels, electric & hydrogen aircraft, & efficiency increases” (Callister). The fact that

not even a small country like New Zealand, which this scholarly article is based off of, can find a

general and viable consensus on what must be done demonstrates the difficulty in creating a

sustainable industry. This is further seen by Sweden’s attempt at creating a “roadmap” to replace

fossil fuels with alternatives, which they have set a goal for 2030 in to replace fossil fuels on

domestic flights and a 2045 goal to do the same for aircraft taking off from Swedish airports
 Ding 3

(Littorin), as described by airport management consultant. Indeed, he also mentions how

meaningful progress has been made in Sweden, such as how an airport within the country has

already contracted to purchase biofuels. However, again, the scope of Sweden’s plan for impact

resides only within itself, and the far-off targets that Sweden shows the difficulty in

implementing it even within a small country. The fact is that humanity doesn’t have time to wait

that long, and, considering that even smaller countries face such difficulties and deadlines in the

far future, passing emissions-curbing legislation in places such as the United States is going to be

even more difficult, with the U.S.’ large population and known governing issues in the discontent

with how legislation is being passed seen in Congress’ low approval ratings that have largely

been below 20% since 2010 (“Congress and the Public.”) (see Figure 1 below).

Figure 1- Congress' approval ratings have dropped off on average since the early 2000's & have stayed below 20% since July 2023

(Gallup). The inability of smaller countries’ governments to bring meaningful legislation for change in aviation is exacerbated by larger countries

such as the U.S. shown above, as people are dissatisfied with the inaction of their legislative body.

You also have to look at how airlines themselves have little incentive and control in

decreasing emissions, as a late 2000’s editorial in Nature comments on the major losses that

would be sustained if meaningful climate change action is made: “[i]t’s clear that something will
 Ding 4

have to give. If real cuts are to be made to carbon emissions, aviation growth will certainly have

to level off” (“Off the Rails.”). This continues to be truthful today, as the tourism industry is

facing a major culture shift with such enormous growth, including the emergence and boom of

low-cost carriers (LCC) (see Figure 2 below), which have contributed to the normalization of

flight in everyday life as “just another mode of public transportation” (Harris).

Figure 2 - Graph shows Southwest (an LCC) gaining a greater percentage of market share since 2005, with a dropoff in 2022 due to

COVID-19. (Market Share of the Top American Airlines). The popular airlines, as seen above, have been losing their market share–with

Northwest merging with Delta in 2010, which further exacerbates the drop in delta’s market share between 2005 & 2012 (Britannica)--showing

the continuous emergence of new air travel demands.

As LCC’s continue to propel airline industry growth, such as the 28.4% jump in passenger

volume between August 2022 and 2023 past the COVID pandemic (“Passenger Demand

Recovery Continues in August.”) & the still continued rapid growth, one may point out the gains

in fuel efficiency that could at least stagnate the increase in fossil fuel emissions by airplanes, but

this gain has only been by 1-2% per year (“Off the Rails.”), which is completely trounced by the

increase in passenger volume & therefore air traffic. Combining this resiliency against major
 Ding 5

international setbacks and the continued desire of airline industries to innovate with new

business models such as LCC’s, we get quite an unavoidable increase in emissions.

Fossil fuel industries also make their products indispensable to both themselves &

governments. Although airlines could sever this air traffic-emissions correlation by making

emissions eco-friendly, the results are dismal: as of now, around the world, only 5 of the world’s

airports–Bergen, Brisbane, Los Angeles, Oslo and Stockholm–have regular biofuel distribution

(Le Feuvre), and sustainable fuels in general are seen as difficult to be viable, which include the

“cost, technological readiness, feedstock supply and environmental side effects” of new

technologies that only the most optimistic of “rapid uptake of new technology could stabilise

[sic] ”--not eliminate–“aviation's climate impact” past 2050 (Callister).

Proposed SAF Traffic growth Emissions

Scope Study proportion by 2050 Cuts by 2050
20% by 2035,
EU Fit for 55 63% by 2050 -52%
EU ICCT 20% by 2035
UK Jet Zero 14% by 2050 54% -42%
UK CCC 25% by 2050 25% -40%
<-- unfeasible
phasing out of
conventional
UK Absolute Zero −100% -100% aviation
world IEA SDS 50% 180%
world IEA Net Zero 78% 14% -80%
world BP Net Zero 60% by 2050 80% -35%
world IATA 65% by 2050 120% -100% (of net)
world SBTi 142% -10%
New Zealand Air NZ 86% by 2050 75% -100% (of net)
 Ding 6

Table 3 - Table shows proposed plans to combat climate change (SAF stands for sustainable aviation fuels) & the projected traffic

growth compared to the net emissions cuts (Callister). As the vast majority of these are optimistic, it’s unlikely that there would ultimately be any

meaningful change, as aforementioned with technological challenges.

As clearly seen, these are all major global cities with major access to the world’s resources, and

compounded with how urban areas tend to be more liberal, the state and local governments who

own these airports (“Airport Infrastructure Funding.”) are more likely to accept renewables as an

alternative. In other areas, the lobbying of fossil fuels has made it extremely difficult to get

pro-sustainability action passed. For example, Vox writer David Roberts, in explaining the drive

of wealthy entities (especially fossil fuel companies) in influencing policies, states how

Proposition 112 in Colorado in 2018 would have revised the minimum setback of oil and gas

wells to 2500 feet for occupied buildings, but fell short, with the industry spending $41 million

to oppose versus less than a million by its proponents (Roberts). This aggressive spending by

these for-profit companies indicates the magnitude that they depend on continuing to allow their

fuels–with GHG’s–to be legal and widespread; the simple fact is that oil (an ingredient in fossil

fuels, including those used in aviation) is profitable. In truth, fossil fuel companies have done

this lobbying well to continue to sell fossil fuels to be used, including in commercial flights and

airports. Ultimately, outside the scope of easily controlled localities in favor of SAF’s, it is

difficult to draw meaningful progress when people are so desperately swayed towards

profitability by fossil fuel companies, resulting in less incentive to create meaningful change, as

seen in the overly-optimistic plans (see Table 3 above).

Now, let’s talk about how these attitudes towards convincing the public of the necessity

of fossil fuels are connected specifically to ordinary citizens’ use of flight. It’s been tagged as

“flyers’ dilemma” by researchers Tina Harris and Katie Daniels in the University of Amsterdam

in research about this phenomenon, or the clash between the belief that air travel is “deeply
 Ding 7

embedded” into our social fabric and its aggregate effect on climate change. As a combination of

the normalization of flight mentioned above—called “legitimizing,” referring to flight’s slow

transformation to being a necessity)--and the “place-lag” resulting from not having time to fully

comprehend the distance traveled by quick transportation, “sustainably minded people” have

come to believe that their contributions to emissions could be offset by their other practices as a

“quid pro quo,” which the research that Harris and Daniels have done showing that this

ultimately doesn’t produce any net green effect than those not exercising sustainability (Harris).

Although this research was based focusing on attitudes towards LCC in Europe from a European

perspective, LCC’s in the U.S. similarly dominate; a simple Google search for “flights to Las

Vegas” from Irvine & sorting by “best flights” yields display prices around ~$80 for LCC’s such

as Spirit and Frontier and subsequently over $700 for non-LCC’s. With the online (ex. social

media), physical (air transport), and diplomatic permeability between the U.S. and other

countries, there’s little reason to suggest that attitudes are any different, which has shown to be

due most stigmatized towards individual overconsumption in the Western cultures (Gossling).

With flight being seen as a necessity, this reduces the “societal repercussions” (Harris) of it,

explaining flying’s relative under-stigmatization. Together, with countries & airlines

continuously innovating & profiting, the fossil fuel industry’s connection with this that

ultimately correlates more flying with more emissions, and the difficulty in driving sustainability

toward conscious & unconscious overconsumption of flight by consumers, there is great

difficulty in finding any reliable outlet for snipping away this web that’s reinforcing emissions.

Popularity leads to overconsumption–that’s the truth about the airline industry, the fossil

fuel industries, and people. It grows large, turns into something commonplace, and ultimately is

plastered into society as an essential component of how we live, but what if this
 Ding 8

overconsumption can be taken to our advantage? Just like how the beast of addiction can be

hunted down by the government-spending programs that are partially funded by tax revenue

from tobacco products, we can inform people that whenever they take off and are able to gaze

down upon the landscape, they notice the gradual change of the buildings, the atmosphere, and

everything around; that’s what Charles Lindbergh did in his later years from flying, seeing places

he frequented being absorbed by the modern industrial revolution (Robertson).

When I was younger and was actually on those planes, I, like many others, excitedly

looked out the window at the vastness that projected out into the infinite skies. What if we told

every pair of curious eyes looking out, to pay attention a little more, and one day grasp the

magnitude of the rate that climate change is warping our world?

 Ding 9

Works Cited

“Airport Infrastructure Funding.” Airports Council International - North America, 17 Mar. 2021,

airportscouncil.org/advocacy/airport-infrastructure-funding/#:~:text=Although%20nearly

%20all%20U.S.%20airports,or%20no%20direct%20taxpayer%20support.

This webpage by Airport Council International argues about the importance of increasing

funding for airport infrastructure, but the main piece of information from this article used

is the fact that “nearly all airports are owned by state or local governments.”

“Aviation.” IEA, 11 July 2023, www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/aviation.

This information site by the International Energy Agency explains the importance of

considering climate change–despite its current small size–lies in how “demand is

expected to grow rapidly through 2030” & the challenges that are required to mitigate

aviation emissions. Aviation’s growing impact is a commonly accepted fact in the

scientific and aviation community, which ties to my purpose of how the economic

machine inevitably drives the aircraft industry forward, regardless of climate change.

Britannica, The Editors of Encyclopaedia. "Northwest Airlines, Inc.". Encyclopedia Britannica,

25 Jan. 2024, https://www.britannica.com/topic/Northwest-Airlines-Inc. Accessed 29

January 2024.

This is an information site about Northwest Airlines, which I wanted to do research for

(as I did not recognize it at first), as it appears in a graph I used & the fact that it

disappeared past 2005, which I found out was due to a merger with Delta Airlines, which

this source explains. Its purpose is to inform the reader about Northwest Airlines, which
 Ding 10

was me, & I used it as part of my explanation of how non-LCC markets have shrunk in

market share since 2012.

Callister, Paul. “Managing Aotearoa New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas ...” Taylor & Francis

Online, Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 25 May 2023,

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03036758.2023.2212174.

Written in the Summer of 2023 in the Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand by

senior associate Paul Callister of the Victoria University of Wellington, this article

explains how New Zealand has been attempting to manage their GHG emissions, as they

have been rapidly growing with “tourism and airport industries, emissions pricing and

substitutes, and the distribution of air travel” & how current solutions fail to provide

meaningful reductions “in the short to medium term.” It also explains the plans of various

organizations (as seen in the table above). Although countries such as Sweden have been

able to get actions from airports (such as them purchasing biofuels), they haven’t been

able to keep up with the rate of aviation growth. Ultimately, they argue that New

Zealand’s attempts to mitigate emissions have been inconsequential and that a “national

aviation action plan” is required for meaningful change; the former part ties more closely

to this project, as I explain how the struggles New Zealand has are further exacerbated

globally because of the even greater difficulty of larger countries administering change.

“Comet’s Tale.” Smithsonian.Com, Smithsonian Institution, 1 June 2002,

www.smithsonianmag.com/history/comets-tale-63573615/.

I use this article by Robert Pushkar, independent scholar and writer, in the beginning to

supplement the explanation of the emergence of the jetliner (that scheduled commercial
 Ding 11

airliners flew common passengers “for the first time ever”) & how commercial aviation

was further propelled from that stage onward.

“Congress and the Public.” Gallup.Com, Gallup, 29 Nov. 2023,

news.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx.

This page lists various tables and graphs detailing the public’s perception of the U.S.

Congress, and I used the first one one approval ratings because the vast majority of

people would understand what that statistic means: how much Congress is accepted by

the public; the others delved into different wordings & more recent statistics, but the

graph I chose focused on the broader picture, which connects to my purpose of the

general trend of the inability of larger governments to deliver favorable results.

Gallup. Congressional Job Approval. 2024. Gallup News,

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx. Accessed 19 Jan. 2024.

Graph from Gallup (from above source).

Gössling, S., et al. “Can We Fly Less? Evaluating the ‘necessity’ of Air Travel.” Journal of Air

Transport Management, Pergamon, 26 Sept. 2019,

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699719303229?via%3Dihub.

I used this source by Gossling at the Western Norway Research Institute as a

supplementary source to the flyers’ dilemma article (cited right below) on attitudes

towards overconsumption (see below).

Harris, Tina, and Katie Daniels. “Calibrating Consumption: Flyers’ Dilemmas in the Age of the

Low-Cost Carrier.” Low-Cost Aviation, Elsevier, 24 June 2022,

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128201312000011.
 Ding 12

Written by University of Amsterdam researchers Tina Harris and Katie Daniels, this

article builds on the research with the “flyers’ dilemma”, or a citizens’ conflict balancing

between the perceived personal benefits of deeply embedded air travel practices and the

collective climate change consequences of such practices, especially with the emergence

of LCC’s that have further lowered the cost of flying and caused it “to be viewed as ‘just

another mode of public transport,’” which earlier sources have stated to be an “away

from home experience.” However, with such recent developments in accessibility, flying

is starting to be viewed less as a unique experience to be treasured and different from the

commonplace, including home, but rather as normalization, just like how everything we

take for granted in modern society is. The purpose of this article advocating for a shift in

the overconsumption attitude of flying towards a vice at “the individual level” in order to

bring feared societal repercussions to every person doing it connects to the lack of action

in climate change, as the participant instead of contributor attitude further compounds

inaction towards sustainability (including the “flyers’ dilemma).

“The Jet Age.” Air and Space Museum,

airandspace.si.edu/explore/stories/jet-age#:~:text=Airplanes%20with%20jet%20engines

%20have,tremendous%20thrust%20for%20their%20weight. Accessed 24 Jan. 2024.

This article provides information about the jetliner and why it has been extremely

popular, due to it being “reliable, safer,...less costly,” and more powerful, which I used to

describe why jetliners have persisted into the modern world. Indeed, electric engines are

too heavy & not high energy density to suit a wide aircraft market.

Le Feuvre, Pharoah. “Are Aviation Biofuels Ready for Take off? – Analysis.” IEA, 18 Mar. 2019,

www.iea.org/commentaries/are-aviation-biofuels-ready-for-take-off.
 Ding 13

I used the statistic on “regular biofuel distribution” being only to 5 major world airports

as a source to how limiting biofuel distribution is; despite the article arguing how biofuels

could soon be a staple in flight, the major roadblocks still have to do with the inability of

significant increases in biofuel production (ex. Lack of resources & technological

innovation to produce them fast), and I talk about this lack of meaningful action above.

Littorin, Henrik. “How Sweden’s Roadmap for Fossil-Free Aviation Paved the Way for a More

Constructive Dialogue Regarding Aviation and Climate Change.” HSTalks, 19 Oct. 2020,

hstalks.com/article/6436/how-swedens-roadmap-for-fossil-free-aviation-paved/.

Aviation decarbonization consultant Henrik Littorin, in the scholarly Journal of Airport

Management, argues that Fossil Free Sweden, a government initiative, allowed for the

interests of aviation and climate change to resolve their differences and head for a

common goal: simultaneously reducing net emissions and making Sweden’s aviation

industry more competitive. For example, he states that the “roadmap” that Sweden's

aviation sector handed in as a result of the initiative stated that domestic-flying Swedish

jetliners could be made “fossil-free” by 2030 and that “all aircraft taking off” from

Sweden could do the same by 2045, which could help address climate change.

Essentially, it implies that the fact that these guidelines were laid out by the industry itself

indicates that solutions are possible when conflicting interests can work together to find a

“balanced approach.” Additionally, it states how a Swedish airport bought biofuels to

“correspond…to fuel demand” for the airport’s “business trips,” which indicates an actual

step forward taken.

However, conflicting evidence possibly exists for the use of biofuels both in support and

countering it, as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has stated:

 Ding 14

Biofuels could release more emissions on an “energy-equivalent basis” than fossil fuels

and have negative impacts on the environment with “land and water resource

requirements,” but could emit less GHG (greenhouse gasses) overall and have limited

environmental impact.

Ultimately, as this is a scholarly source from a journal on airport management, its likely

audience was for others involved in managing airports (including its use of resources),

likely meaning that it was intended to promote the initiative and encourage other airport

managers to implement the necessary changes to allow biofuels to be accessible in all of

Sweden’s airports.

Relating to my project, the current lack of airports with regularly available biofuels points

to how, even though Sweden’s might be internally helping with the climate crisis with the

author targeting other airport managers within his country to further the initiative, other

countries would still need to find consensus on the use of biofuels before viable policy

advocations can be made–made difficult by the average size of other countries (greater

than Sweden)--which then needs to overcome the lobbying of fossil fuel companies.

Market Share of the Top American Airlines, 1977-2022. 2024. The Geography of Transport

Systems. Accessed 19 Jan. 2024.

Citation of Figure 2 above.

“Off the Rails.” Nature News, Nature Publishing Group, 10 Jan. 2007,

www.nature.com/articles/445125b.

This short editorial in the journal Nature shares that emissions are increasing because of

great increases in passenger volume in spite of fuel efficiency increases, as these gains

have been much proportionally lower. In addition, they mock the outward agreement of
 Ding 15

airlines to curb emissions while they are quite reluctant to do so in reality, so he comes to

the dismal conclusion that “[i]t’s clear that something will have to give” to curb carbon

emissions. Despite the countless plans & promises given out by organizations , agencies,

and airlines, they have largely not been fulfilled & continue to drive up aviation carbon

emissions. With the continued success of new models for airline travel (such as LCC’s)

and the measly gains in fuel efficiency methods & technologies, it’s clear that there is

little incentive & little results for aviation emissions reductions.

“Passenger Demand Recovery Continues in August.” IATA, 4 Oct. 2023,

www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2023-releases/2023-10-04-01/.

This article by the IATA (International Air Transport Association) lists the statistics of the

rapid recovery of air transport post-pandemic, which is a vital part of how resilient the

aviation industry is to even major international crises, with a 28.4% increase in “revenue

passenger kilometers” (RPK’s), which multiplies the number of passengers by the

distance traveled.

Roberts, David. “Fossil Fuel Money Crushed Clean Energy Ballot Initiatives across the

Country.” Vox, 7 ov. 2018,

www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/11/7/18069940/election-results-2018-energ

y-carbon-fracking-ballot-initiatives.

Vox energy and climate change writer David Roberts argues that fossil fuel companies &

other wealthy entities are the ones creating public policy using the results of

climate-related initiatives from 2018. Another example from the article (apart from the

Colorado example above) is how Ballot Measure 1, intending to protect “sensitive

salmon habitats” by “implementing specific restrictions on…oil and gas wells,” was
 Ding 16

crushed by industry opposition, “outspen[ding] proponents 12 to 1”. Additionally, he

claims that Question 6 in Nevada, which aimed to “impose a 50 percent renewable energy

mandate on state utilities” by 2030, passed largely because Elon Musk wanted renewable

energy for his “gigafactory” in the state (thus implying that his billionaire wealth largely

influenced the results).

A possible counterargument is within the article itself, that Proposition 127 in Arizona

was rejected 70-30 even though the opposers of the proposition–funded by “the owner of

the state’s big utility”--raised only marginally more money, which the author explains

was due to the “unfavorable” wording by the secretary of state.

As this is written by a journalist, his purpose is likely to inform possible voters on how

the fossil fuel industry might be attempting to mislead them, albeit the fact that Vox is a

left-leaning news source might mean that the impact of big oil might have been

overemphasized in the depiction of the initiative results.

This source is an example of the fossil fuel industry’s power to influence policy in favor

of maintaining profits selling fossil fuels and keeping it, for the vast majority of places, as

the most practical source of fuel for jetliners, therefore solidifying both public opinion

and legislation for its continued use, including in aviation.

Robertson, Thomas. “The Bird’s-Eye View: Toward an Environmental History of Aviation.”

EBSCO Host, Dec. 2014,

search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=99249106&site=ehost-live&

scope=site.

Historian and Associate Professor at the Worcester Polytechnic Institute Thomas

Robertson explains the aviation history behind how it played a role in airborne surveying
 Ding 17

for wars, infrastructure planning, & other uses for mapping & how the act of looking

down over the landscape ultimately made Charles Lindbergh, the famous aviator who

first flew across the Atlantic, aware of the “disturbing” changes due to modernization as

“civilization expand[ed] while wilderness areas shrank.” This relates to my paper, as the

irony lies in how the expansion of the aviation industry has caused the issues mentioned

above but simultaneously can be a tool that can spread awareness to the growing

environmental problems around us such as climate change: the more places we frequent,

facilitated by quick transportation such as flying, the more likely we are to feel the effects

of climate change, so the more we can all feel a sense of responsibility towards this

glaring issue.