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 Applied Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate Statistics Using Python

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 Applied Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate
Statistics Using Python

A Beginner’s Guide to Advanced Data Analysis

Daniel J. Denis

ffirs.indd 3 08-04-2021 17:20:11

 This edition first published 2021
© 2021 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Denis, Daniel J., 1974- author. | John Wiley & Sons, Inc., publisher.
Title: Applied univariate, bivariate, and multivariate statistics using Python Subtitle: A beginner’s guide to
advanced data analysis / Daniel J. Denis, University of Montana, Missoula, MT.
Description: Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2021. | Includes bibliographical
references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2020050202 (print) | LCCN 2020050203 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119578147 (hardback) |
ISBN 9781119578178 (pdf) | ISBN 9781119578185 (epub) | ISBN 9781119578208 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: Statistics--Software. | Multivariate analysis. | Python (Computer program language).
Classification: LCC QA276.45.P98 D46 2021 (print) | LCC QA276.45.P98 (ebook) |
DDC 519.5/302855133--dc23
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Cover design by Wiley

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 To Kaiser

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ffirs.indd 6 08-04-2021 17:20:11
 vii

Contents

Prefacexii

1 A Brief Introduction and Overview of Applied Statistics 1

1.1 How Statistical Inference Works 4
1.2 Statistics and Decision-Making 7
1.3 Quantifying Error Rates in Decision-Making: Type I and Type II Errors 8
1.4 Estimation of Parameters 9
1.5 Essential Philosophical Principles for Applied Statistics 11
1.6 Continuous vs. Discrete Variables 13
1.6.1 Continuity Is Not Always Clear-Cut 15
1.7 Using Abstract Systems to Describe Physical Phenomena:
Understanding Numerical vs. Physical Differences 16
1.8 Data Analysis, Data Science, Machine Learning, Big Data 18
1.9 “Training” and “Testing” Models: What “Statistical Learning”
Means in the Age of Machine Learning and Data Science 20
1.10 Where We Are Going From Here: How to Use This Book 22
Review Exercises 23

2 Introduction to Python and the Field of Computational Statistics 25

2.1 The Importance of Specializing in Statistics and Research,
Not Python: Advice for Prioritizing Your Hierarchy 26
2.2 How to Obtain Python 28
2.3 Python Packages 29
2.4 Installing a New Package in Python 31
2.5 Computing z-Scores in Python 32
2.6 Building a Dataframe in Python: And Computing Some Statistical
Functions 35
2.7 Importing a .txt or .csv File 38
2.8 Loading Data into Python 39
2.9 Creating Random Data in Python 40
2.10 Exploring Mathematics in Python 40
2.11 Linear and Matrix Algebra in Python: Mechanics of
Statistical Analyses 41
2.11.1 Operations on Matrices 44
2.11.2 Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors 47
Review Exercises  48

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 viii Contents

3 Visualization in Python: Introduction to Graphs and Plots 50

3.1 Aim for Simplicity and Clarity in Tables and Graphs:
Complexity is for Fools! 52
3.2 State Population Change Data 54
3.3 What Do the Numbers Tell Us? Clues to Substantive Theory 56
3.4 The Scatterplot 58
3.5 Correlograms 59
3.6 Histograms and Bar Graphs 61
3.7 Plotting Side-by-Side Histograms 62
3.8 Bubble Plots 63
3.9 Pie Plots 65
3.10 Heatmaps 66
3.11 Line Charts 68
3.12 Closing Thoughts 69
Review Exercises 70

4 Simple Statistical Techniques for Univariate and Bivariate Analyses 72

4.1 Pearson Product-Moment Correlation 73
4.2 A Pearson Correlation Does Not (Necessarily) Imply
Zero Relationship 75
4.3 Spearman’s Rho 76
4.4 More General Comments on Correlation:
Don’t Let a Correlation Impress You Too Much! 79
4.5 Computing Correlation in Python 80
4.6 T-Tests for Comparing Means 84
4.7 Paired-Samples t-Test in Python 88
4.8 Binomial Test 90
4.9 The Chi-Squared Distribution and Goodness-of-Fit Test 91
4.10 Contingency Tables 93
Review Exercises 94

5 Power, Effect Size, P-Values, and Estimating Required

Sample Size Using Python 96
5.1 What Determines the Size of a P-Value? 96
5.2 How P-Values Are a Function of Sample Size 99
5.3 What is Effect Size? 100
5.4 Understanding Population Variability in the Context of
Experimental Design 102
5.5 Where Does Power Fit into All of This? 103
5.6 Can You Have Too Much Power? Can a Sample Be Too Large? 104
5.7 Demonstrating Power Principles in Python: Estimating
Power or Sample Size 106
5.8 Demonstrating the Influence of Effect Size 108
5.9 The Influence of Significance Levels on Statistical Power 108
5.10 What About Power and Hypothesis Testing in the Age of “Big Data”? 110
5.11 Concluding Comments on Power, Effect Size, and Significance Testing 111
Review Exercises 112

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 Contents ix

6 Analysis of Variance 113

6.1 T-Tests for Means as a “Special Case” of ANOVA 114
6.2 Why Not Do Several t-Tests? 116
6.3 Understanding ANOVA Through an Example 117
6.4 Evaluating Assumptions in ANOVA 121
6.5 ANOVA in Python 124
6.6 Effect Size for Teacher 125
6.7 Post-Hoc Tests Following the ANOVA F-Test 125
6.8 A Myriad of Post-Hoc Tests 127
6.9 Factorial ANOVA 129
6.10 Statistical Interactions 131
6.11 Interactions in the Sample Are a Virtual Guarantee:
Interactions in the Population Are Not 133
6.12 Modeling the Interaction Term 133
6.13 Plotting Residuals 134
6.14 Randomized Block Designs and Repeated Measures 135
6.15 Nonparametric Alternatives 138
6.15.1 Revisiting What “Satisfying Assumptions” Means:
A Brief Discussion and Suggestion of How to Approach
the Decision Regarding Nonparametrics 140
6.15.2 Your Experience in the Area Counts 140
6.15.3 What If Assumptions Are Truly Violated? 141
6.15.4 Mann-Whitney U Test 144
6.15.5 Kruskal-Wallis Test as a Nonparametric Alternative to ANOVA 145
Review Exercises 147

7 Simple and Multiple Linear Regression 148

7.1 Why Use Regression? 150
7.2 The Least-Squares Principle 152
7.3 Regression as a “New” Least-Squares Line 153
7.4 The Population Least-Squares Regression Line 154
7.5 How to Estimate Parameters in Regression 155
7.6 How to Assess Goodness of Fit? 157
7.7 R2 – Coefficient of Determination 158
7.8 Adjusted R2 159
7.9 Regression in Python 161
7.10 Multiple Linear Regression 164
7.11 Defining the Multiple Regression Model 164
7.12 Model Specification Error 166
7.13 Multiple Regression in Python 167
7.14 Model-Building Strategies: Forward, Backward, Stepwise 168
7.15 Computer-Intensive “Algorithmic” Approaches 171
7.16 Which Approach Should You Adopt? 171
7.17 Concluding Remarks and Further Directions:
Polynomial Regression 172
Review Exercises 174

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 x Contents

8 Logistic Regression and the Generalized Linear Model 176

8.1 How Are Variables Best Measured? Are There Ideal
Scales on Which a Construct Should Be Targeted? 178
8.2 The Generalized Linear Model 180
8.3 Logistic Regression for Binary Responses: A Special
Subclass of the Generalized Linear Model 181
8.4 Logistic Regression in Python 184
8.5 Multiple Logistic Regression 188
8.5.1 A Model with Only Lag1 191
8.6 Further Directions 192
Review Exercises 192

9 Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) and

Discriminant Analysis 194
9.1 Why Technically Most Univariate Models
are Actually Multivariate 195
9.2 Should I Be Running a Multivariate Model? 196
9.3 The Discriminant Function 198
9.4 Multivariate Tests of Significance: Why They Are
Different from the F-Ratio 199
9.4.1 Wilks’ Lambda 200
9.4.2 Pillai’s Trace 201
9.4.3 Roy’s Largest Root 201
9.4.4 Lawley-Hotelling’s Trace 202
9.5 Which Multivariate Test to Use? 202
9.6 Performing MANOVA in Python 203
9.7 Effect Size for MANOVA 205
9.8 Linear Discriminant Function Analysis 205
9.9 How Many Discriminant Functions Does One Require? 207
9.10 Discriminant Analysis in Python: Binary Response 208
9.11 Another Example of Discriminant Analysis: Polytomous Classification 211
9.12 Bird’s Eye View of MANOVA, ANOVA, Discriminant Analysis, and
Regression: A Partial Conceptual Unification 212
9.13 Models “Subsumed” Under the Canonical Correlation Framework 214
Review Exercises 216

10 Principal Components Analysis 218

10.1 What Is Principal Components Analysis? 218
10.2 Principal Components as Eigen Decomposition 221
10.3 PCA on Correlation Matrix 223
10.4 Why Icebergs Are Not Good Analogies for PCA 224
10.5 PCA in Python 226
10.6 Loadings in PCA: Making Substantive Sense Out of an Abstract
Mathematical Entity 229
10.7 Naming Components Using Loadings: A Few Issues 230
10.8 Principal Components Analysis on USA Arrests Data 232
10.9 Plotting the Components 237
Review Exercises 240

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 Contents xi

11 Exploratory Factor Analysis 241

11.1 The Common Factor Analysis Model 242
11.2 Factor Analysis as a Reproduction of the Covariance Matrix 243
11.3 Observed vs. Latent Variables: Philosophical Considerations 244
11.4 So, Why is Factor Analysis Controversial? The Philosophical
Pitfalls of Factor Analysis 247
11.5 Exploratory Factor Analysis in Python 248
11.6 Exploratory Factor Analysis on USA Arrests Data 250
Review Exercises 254

12 Cluster Analysis 255

12.1 Cluster Analysis vs. ANOVA vs. Discriminant Analysis 258
12.2 How Cluster Analysis Defines “Proximity” 259
12.2.1 Euclidean Distance 260
12.3 K-Means Clustering Algorithm 261
12.4 To Standardize or Not? 262
12.5 Cluster Analysis in Python 263
12.6 Hierarchical Clustering 266
12.7 Hierarchical Clustering in Python 268
Review Exercises 272

References 273
Index 276

ftoc.indd 11 07-04-2021 10:32:00

 xii

Preface

This book is an elementary beginner’s introduction to applied statistics using

Python. It for the most part assumes no prior knowledge of statistics or data analysis,
though a prior introductory course is desirable. It can be appropriately used in a
16-week course in statistics or data analysis at the advanced undergraduate or begin-
ning graduate level in fields such as psychology, sociology, biology, forestry, edu-
cation, nursing, chemistry, business, law, and other areas where making sense of
data is a priority rather than formal theoretical statistics as one may have in a more
specialized program in a statistics department. Mathematics used in the book is mini-
mal and where math is used, every effort has been made to unpack and explain it as
clearly as possible. The goal of the book is to obtain results using software rather
quickly, while at the same time not completely dismissing important conceptual and
theoretical features. After all, if you do not understand what the computer is produc-
ing, then the output will be quite meaningless. For deeper theoretical accounts, the
reader is encouraged to consult other sources, such as the author’s more theoretical
book, now in its second edition (Denis, 2021), or a number of other books on univari-
ate and multivariate analysis (e.g., Izenman, 2008; Johnson and Wichern, 2007). The
book you hold in your hands is merely meant to get your foot in the door, and so long
as that is understood from the outset, it will be of great use to the newcomer or begin-
ner in statistics and computing. It is hoped that you leave the book with a feeling of
having better understood simple to relatively advanced statistics, while also experienc-
ing a little bit of what Python is all about.
Python is used in performing and demonstrating data analyses throughout the
book, but it should be emphasized that the book is not a specialty on Python itself.
In this respect, the book does not contain a deep introduction to the software and nor
does it go into the language that makes up Python computing to any significant
degree. Rather, the book is much more “hands-on” in that code used is a starting
point to generating useful results. That is, the code employed is that which worked for
the problem under consideration and which the user can amend or adjust afterward
when performing additional analyses. When it comes to coding with Python, there
are usually several ways of accomplishing similar goals. In places, we also cite code
used by others, assigning proper credit. There already exist a plethora of Python texts
and user manuals that feature the software in much greater depth. Those users wish-
ing to learn Python from scratch and become specialists in the software and aspire to
become an efficient and general-purpose programmer should consult those sources

Applied Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate Statistics Using Python: A Beginner’s Guide to
Advanced Data Analysis, First Edition. Daniel J. Denis.
© 2021 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Published 2021 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

fpref.indd 12 02-04-2021 11:24:13

 Preface xiii

(e.g. see Guttag, 2013). For those who want some introductory exposure to Python on
generating data-analytic results and wish to understand what the software is
producing, it is hoped that the current book will be of great use.
In a book such as this, limited by a fixed number of pages, it is an exceedingly dif-
ficult and challenging endeavor to both instruct on statistics and software simultane-
ously. Attempting to cover univariate, bivariate, and multivariate techniques in a book
of this size in any kind of respectable depth or completeness in coverage is, well, an
impossibility. Combine this with including software options and the impossibility fac-
tor increases! However, such is the nature of books that attempt to survey a wide vari-
ety of techniques such as this one – one has to include only the most essential of
information to get the reader “going” on the techniques and advise him or her to
consult other sources for further details. Targeting the right mix of theory and software
in a book like this is the most challenging part, but so long as the reader (and instruc-
tor) recognizes that this book is but a foot-in-the-door to get students “started,” then I
hope it will fall in the confidence band of a reasonable expectation. The reader wishing
to better understand a given technique or principle will naturally find many narratives
incomplete, while the reader hoping to find more details on Python will likewise find
the book incomplete. On average, however, it is hoped that the current “mix” is of
introductory use for the newcomer. It can be exceedingly difficult to enter the world of
statistics and computing. This book will get you started. In many places, references are
provided on where to go next.
Unfortunately, many available books on the market for Python are nothing more
than slaps in the face to statistical theory while presenting a bunch of computer code
that otherwise masks a true understanding of what the code actually accomplishes.
Though data science is a welcome addition to the mathematical and applied scien-
tific disciplines, and software advancements have made leaps and bounds in the area
of quantitative analysis, it is also an unfortunate trend that understanding statistical
theory and an actual understanding of statistical methods is sometimes taking a back
seat to what we will otherwise call “generating output.” The goal of research and
science is not to generate software output. The goal is, or at least should be, to
understand in a deeper way whatever output that is generated. Code can be
looked up far easier than can statistical understanding. Hence, the goal of the book is
to understand what the code represents (at least the important code on which tech-
niques are run) and, to some extent at least, the underlying mathematical and philo-
sophical mechanisms of one’s analysis. We comment on this important distinction a
bit later in this preface as it is very important. Each chapter of this book could easily be
expanded and developed into a deeper book spanning more than 3–4 times the size of
the book in entirety.

The objective of this book is to provide a pragmatic introduction to data analysis

and statistics using Python, providing the reader with a starting point foot-in-the-
door to understanding elementary to advanced statistical concepts while affording
him or her the opportunity to apply some of these techniques using the Python language.

The book is the fourth in a series of books published by the author, all with Wiley.
Readers wishing a deeper discussion of the topics treated in this book are encouraged
to consult the author’s first book, now in its second (and better) edition titled Applied

fpref.indd 13 02-04-2021 11:24:13

 xiv Preface

Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate Statistics: Understanding Statistics

for Social and Natural Scientists, with Applications in SPSS and R (2021). The
book encompasses a much more thorough overview of many of the techniques fea-
tured in the current book, featuring the use of both R and SPSS software. Readers
wishing a book similar to this one, but instead focusing exclusively on R or SPSS, are
encouraged to consult the author’s other two books, Univariate, Bivariate, and
Multivariate Statistics Using R: Quantitative Tools for Data Analysis and Data
Science and SPSS Data Analysis for Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate
Statistics. Each of these texts are far less theory-driven and are more similar to the
current book in this regard, focusing on getting results quickly and interpreting find-
ings for research reports, dissertations, or publication. Hence, depending on which
software is preferred, readers (and instructors) can select the text best suited to their
needs. Many of the data sets repeat themselves across texts. It should be emphasized,
however, that all of these books are still at a relatively introductory level, even if sur-
veying relatively advanced univariate and multivariate statistical techniques.
Features used in the book to help channel the reader’s focus:
■■ Bullet points appear throughout the text. They are used primarily to detail and
interpret output generated by Python. Understanding and interpreting output is a
major focus of the book.

■■ “Don’t Forget!”

Brief “don’t forget” summaries serve to emphasize and reinforce that which is most
pertinent to the discussion and to aid in learning these concepts. They also serve to
highlight material that can be easily misunderstood or misapplied if care is not prac-
ticed. Scattered throughout the book, these boxes help the reader review and empha-
size essential material discussed in the chapters.
■■ Each chapter concludes with a brief set of exercises. These include both conceptu-
ally-based problems that are targeted to help in mastering concepts introduced in
the chapter, as well as computational problems using Python.
■■ Most concepts are implicitly defined throughout the book by introducing them in
the context of how they are used in scientific and statistical practice. This is most
appropriate for a short book such as this where time and space to unpack definitions
in entirety is lacking. “Dictionary definitions” are usually grossly incomplete any-
way and one could even argue that most definitions in even good textbooks often fail
to capture the “essence” of the concept. It is only in seeing the term used in its proper
context does one better appreciate how it is employed, and, in this sense, the reader
is able to unpack the deeper intended meaning of the term. For example, defining a
population as the set of objects of ultimate interest to the researcher is not enlighten-
ing. Using the word in the context of a scientific example is much more meaning-
ful. Every effort in the book is made to accurately convey deeper conceptual
understanding rather than rely on superficial definitions.
■■ Most of the book was written at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020
and hence it seemed appropriate to feature examples of COVID-19 in places through-
out the book where possible, not so much in terms of data analysis, but rather in
examples of how hypothesis-testing works and the like. In this way, it is hoped

fpref.indd 14 02-04-2021 11:24:13

 Preface xv

examples and analogies “hit home” a bit more for readers and students, making the
issues “come alive” somewhat rather than featuring abstract examples.
■■ Python code is “unpacked” and explained in many, though not all, places. Many
existing books on the market contain explanations of statistical concepts (to varying
degrees of precision) and then plop down a bunch of code the reader is expected to
simply implement and understand. While we do not avoid this entirely, for the most
part we guide the reader step-by-step through both concepts and Python code used.
The goal of the book is in understanding how statistical methods work, not
arming you with a bunch of code for which you do not understand what is behind it.
Principal components code, for instance, is meaningless if you do not first under-
stand and appreciate to some extent what components analysis is about.

Statistical Knowledge vs. Software Knowledge

Having now taught at both the undergraduate and graduate levels for the better part of
fifteen years to applied students in the social and sometimes natural sciences, to the
delight of my students (sarcasm), I have opened each course with a lecture of sorts on
the differences between statistical vs. software knowledge. Very little of the warn-
ing is grasped I imagine, though the real-life experience of the warning usually sur-
faces later in their graduate careers (such as at thesis or dissertation defenses where
they may fail to understand their own software output). I will repeat some of that ser-
mon here. While this distinction, historically, has always been important, it is perhaps
no more important than in the present day given the influx of computing power avail-
able to virtually every student in the sciences and related areas, and the relative ease
with which such computing power can be implemented. Allowing a new teen driver to
drive a Dodge Hellcat with upward of 700 horsepower would be unwise, yet newcom-
ers to statistics and science, from their first day, have such access to the equivalent in
computing power. The statistician is shaking his or her head in disapproval, for good
reason. We live in an age where data analysis is available to virtually anybody with a
laptop and a few lines of code. The code can often easily be dug up in a matter of sec-
onds online, even with very little software knowledge. And of course, with many soft-
ware programs coding is not even a requirement, as windows and GUIs (graphical
user interfaces) have become very easy to use such that one can obtain an analysis in
virtually seconds or even milliseconds. Though this has its advantages, it is not always
and necessarily a good thing.
On the one hand, it does allow the student of applied science to “attempt” to conduct
his or her data analyses. Yet on the other, as the adage goes, a little knowledge can
be a dangerous thing. Being a student of the history of statistics, I can tell you that
before computers were widely available, conducting statistical analyses were available
only to those who could drudge through computations by hand in generating their
“output” (which of course took the form of paper-and-pencil summaries, not the soft-
ware output we have today). These computations took hours upon hours to perform,
and hence, if one were going to do a statistical analysis, one did not embark on such
an endeavor lightly. That does not mean the final solution would be valid necessar-
ily, but rather folks may have been more likely to give serious thought to their analy-
ses before conducting them. Today, a student can run a MANOVA in literally 5 minutes

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 xvi Preface

using software, but, unfortunately, this does not imply the student will understand
what they have done or why they have done it. Random assignment to conditions
may have never even been performed, yet in the haste to implement the software rou-
tine, the student failed to understand or appreciate how limiting their output would
be. Concepts of experimental design get lost in the haste to produce computer out-
put. However, the student of the “modern age” of computing somehow “missed” this
step in his or her quickness to, as it were, perform “advanced statistics.” Further, the
result is “statistically significant,” yet the student has no idea what Wilks’s lambda is
or how it is computed, nor is the difference between statistical significance and
effect size understood. The limitations of what the student has produced are not
appreciated and faulty substantive (and often philosophically illogical) conclusions
follow. I kid you not, I have been told by a new student before that the only problem
with the world is a lack of computing power. Once computing power increases, experi-
mental design will be a thing of the past, or so the student believed. Some incoming
students enter my class with such perceptions, failing to realize that discovering a cure
for COVID-19, for instance, is not a computer issue. It is a scientific one. Computers
help, but they do not on their own resolve scientific issues. Instructors faced with these
initial misconceptions from their students have a tough road to hoe ahead, especially
when forcing on their students fundamental linear algebra in the first two weeks of the
course rather than computer code and statistical recipes.
The problem, succinctly put, is that in many sciences, and contrary to the opinion
you might expect from someone writing a data analysis text, students learn too
much on how to obtain output at the expense of understanding what the out-
put means or the process that is important in drawing proper scientific con-
clusions from said output. Sadly, in many disciplines, a course in “Statistics” would
be more appropriately, and unfortunately, called “How to Obtain Software Output,”
because that is pretty much all the course teaches students to do. How did statistics
education in applied fields become so watered down? Since when did cultivating
the art of analytical or quantitative thinking not matter? Faculty who teach such
courses in such a superficial style should know better and instead teach courses with
a lot more “statistical thinking” rather than simply generating software output. Among
students (who should not necessarily know better – that is what makes them students),
there often exists the illusion that simply because one can obtain output for a multiple
regression, this somehow implies a multiple regression was performed correctly in
line with the researcher’s scientific aims. Do you know how to conduct a multiple
regression? “Yes, I know how to do it in software.” This answer is not a correct
answer to knowing how to conduct a multiple regression! One need not even
understand what multiple regression is to “compute one” in software. As a consultant,
I have also had a client or two from very prestigious universities email me a bunch of
software output and ask me “Did I do this right?” assuming I could evaluate their code
and output without first knowledge of their scientific goals and aims. “Were the statis-
tics done correctly?” Of course, without an understanding of what they intended to do
or the goals of their research, such a question is not only figuratively, but also literally
impossible to answer aside from ensuring them that the software has a strong repu-
tation for accuracy in number-crunching.
This overemphasis on computation, software or otherwise, is not right, and
is a real problem, and is responsible for many misuses and abuses of applied statistics
in virtually every field of endeavor. However, it is especially poignant in fields in the

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social sciences because the objects on which the statistics are computed are often sta-
tistical or psychometric entities themselves, which makes understanding how sta-
tistical modeling works even more vital to understanding what can vs. what cannot be
concluded from a given statistical analysis. Though these problems are also present in
fields such as biology and others, they are less poignant, since the reality of the objects
in these fields is usually more agreed upon. To be blunt, a t-test on whether a COVID-
19 vaccine works or not is not too philosophically challenging. Finding the vaccine is
difficult science to be sure, but analyzing the results statistically usually does not
require advanced statistics. However, a regression analysis on whether social distanc-
ing is a contributing factor to depression rates during the COVID-19 pandemic is not
quite as easy on a methodological level. One is so-called “hard science” on real objects,
the other might just end up being a statistical artifact. This is why social science
students, especially those conducting non-experimental research, need rather
deep philosophical and methodological training so they do not read “too much” into a
statistical result, things the physical scientist may never have had to confront due to
the nature of his or her objects of study. Establishing scientific evidence and support-
ing a scientific claim in many social (and even natural) sciences is exceedingly diffi-
cult, despite the myriad of journals accepting for publication a wide variety of incorrect
scientific claims presumably supported by bloated statistical analyses. Just look at the
methodological debates that surrounded COVID-19, which is on an object that is rela-
tively “easy” philosophically! Step away from concrete science, throw in advanced sta-
tistical technology and complexity, and you enter a world where establishing evidence
is philosophical quicksand. Many students who use statistical methods fall into these
pits without even knowing it and it is the instructor’s responsibility to keep them
grounded in what the statistical method can vs. cannot do. I have told students count-
less times, “No, the statistical method cannot tell you that; it can only tell you this.”
Hence, for the student of empirical sciences, they need to be acutely aware and
appreciative of the deeper issues of conducting their own science. This implies a heav-
ier emphasis on not how to conduct a billion different statistical analyses, but on
understanding the issues with conducting the “basic” analyses they are performing. It
is a matter of fact that many students who fill their theses or dissertations with applied
statistics may nonetheless fail to appreciate that very little of scientific usefulness has
been achieved. What has too often been achieved is a blatant abuse of statistics
masquerading as scientific advancement. The student “bootstrapped standard
errors” (Wow! Impressive!), but in the midst of a dissertation that is scientifically
unsound or at a minimum very weak on a methodological level.
A perfect example to illustrate how statistical analyses can be abused is when per-
forming a so-called “mediation” analysis (you might infer by the quotation marks
that I am generally not a fan, and for a very good reason I may add). In lightning speed,
a student or researcher can regress Y on X, introduce Z as a mediator, and if statisti-
cally significant, draw the conclusion that “Z mediates the relationship between Y and X.”
That’s fine, so long as it is clearly understood that what has been established is statis-
tical mediation (Baron and Kenny, 1986), and not necessarily anything more. To say
that Z mediates Y and X, in a real substantive sense, requires, of course, much more
knowledge of the variables and/or of the research context or design. It first and fore-
most requires defining what one means by “mediation” in the first place. Simply
because one computes statistical mediation does not, in any way whatsoever, justify

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somehow drawing the conclusion that “X goes through Z on its way to Y,” or any-
thing even remotely similar. Crazy talk! Of course, understanding this limitation
should be obvious, right? Not so for many who conduct such analyses. What would
such a conclusion even mean? In most cases, with most variables, it simply does not
even make sense, regardless of how much statistical mediation is established. Again,
this should be blatantly obvious, however many students (and researchers) are una-
ware of this, failing to realize or appreciate that a statistical model cannot, by itself,
impart a “process” onto variables. All a statistical model can typically do, by
itself, is partition variability and estimate parameters. Fiedler et al. (2011)
recently summarized the rather obvious fact that without the validity of prior assump-
tions, statistical mediation is simply, and merely, variance partitioning. Fisher,
inventor of ANOVA (analysis of variance), already warned us of this when he said of
his own novel (at the time) method that ANOVA was merely a way of “arranging the
arithmetic.” Whether or not that arrangement is meaningful or not has to come from
the scientist and a deep consideration of the objects on which that arrangement is
being performed. This idea, that the science matters more than the statistics on which
it is applied, is at risk of being lost, especially in the social sciences where statistical
models regularly “run the show” (at least in some fields) due to the difficulty in many
cases of operationalizing or controlling the objects of study.
Returning to our mediation example, if the context of the research problem lends
itself to a physical or substantive definition of mediation or any other physical process,
such that there is good reason to believe Z is truly, substantively, “mediating,” then the
statistical model can be used as establishing support for this already-presumed rela-
tion, in the same way a statistical model can be used to quantify the generational trans-
mission of physical qualities from parent to child in regression. The process itself,
however, is not due to the fitting of a statistical model. Never in the history of science
or statistics has a statistical model ever generated a process. It merely, and poten-
tially, has only described one. Many students, however, excited to have bootstrapped
those standard errors in their model and all the rest of it, are apt to draw substantive
conclusions based on a statistical model that simply do not hold water. In such cases,
one is better off not running a statistical model at all rather than using it to draw inane
philosophically egregious conclusions that can usually be easily corrected in any intro-
duction to a philosophy of science or research methodology course. Abusing and
overusing statistics does little to advance science. It simply provides a cloak of
complexity.
So, what is the conclusion and recommendation from what might appear to be a
very cynical discussion in introducing this book? Understanding the science and
statistics must come first. Understanding what can vs. cannot be concluded from a
statistical result is the “hard part,” not computing something in Python, at least not at
our level of computation (at more advanced levels, of course, computing can be excep-
tionally difficult, as evidenced by the necessity of advanced computer science degrees).
Python code can always be looked up for applied sciences purposes, but “statistical
understanding” cannot. At least not so easily. Before embarking on either a statistics
course or a computation course, students are strongly encouraged to take a rigorous
research design course, as well as a philosophy of science course, so they might
better appreciate the limitations of their “claims to evidence” in their projects.
Otherwise, statistics, and the computers that compute them, can be just as easily

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 Preface xix

misused and abused as used correctly, and sadly, often are. Instructors and supervisors
need to also better educate students on the reckless fitting of statistical models and
computing inordinate amounts of statistics without careful guidance on what can vs.
cannot be interpreted from such numerical measures. Design first, statistics
second.

Statistical knowledge is not equivalent to software knowledge. One can become

a proficient expert at Python, for instance, yet still not possess the scientific
expertise or experience to successfully interpret output from data analyses. The
difficult part is not in generating analyses (that can always be looked up). The most
important thing is to interpret analyses correctly in relation to the empirical objects
under investigation, and in most cases, this involves recognizing the limitations of what
can vs. cannot be concluded from the data analysis.

Mathematical vs. “Conceptual” Understanding

One important aspect of learning and understanding any craft is to know where and
why making distinctions is important, and on the opposite end of the spectrum,
where divisions simply blur what is really there. One area where this is especially true
is in learning, or at least “using,” a technical discipline such as mathematics and statis-
tics to better understand another subject. Many instructors of applied statistics strive
to teach statistics at a “conceptual” level, which, to them at least, means making the
discipline less “mathematical.” This is done presumably to attract students who may
otherwise be fearful of mathematics with all of its formulas and symbolism. However,
this distinction, I argue, does more harm than good, and completely misses the point.
The truth of the matter is that mathematics are concepts. Statistics are likewise
concepts. Attempting to draw a distinction between two things that are the same does
little good and only provides more confusion for the student.
A linear function, for example, is a concept, just as a standard error is a concept.
That they are symbolized does not take away the fact that there is a softer, more mal-
leable “idea” underneath them, to which the symbolic definition has merely attempted
to define. The sooner the student of applied statistics recognizes this, the sooner he or
she will stop psychologically associating mathematics with “mathematics,” and instead
associate with it what it really is, a form of conceptual development and refine-
ment of intellectual ideas. The mathematics is usually in many cases the “packaged
form” of that conceptual development. Computing a t-test, for instance, is not mathe-
matics. It is arithmetic. Understanding what occurs in the t-test as the mean differ-
ence in the numerator goes toward zero (for example) is not “conceptual understanding.”
Rather, it is mathematics, and the fact that the concepts of mathematics can be
unpacked into a more verbal or descriptive discussion only serves to delineate the
concept that already exists underneath the description. Many instructors of applied
statistics are not aware of this and continually foster the idea to students that mathe-
matics is somehow separate from the conceptual development they are trying to
impart onto their students. Instructors who teach statistics as a series of recipes
and formulas without any conceptual development at all do a serious (almost

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 xx Preface

“malpractice”) disservice to their students. Once students begin to appreciate that

mathematics and statistics is, in a strong sense, a branch of philosophy “rigorized,”
replete with premises, justifications, and proofs and other analytical arguments, they
begin to see it less as “mathematics” and adopt a deeper understanding of what they
are engaging in. The student should always be critical of the a priori associations
they have made to any subject or discipline. The student who “dislikes” mathe-
matics is quite arrogant to think they understand the object enough to know they dis-
like it. It is a form of discrimination. Critical reflection and rebuilding of knowledge
(i.e. or at least what one assumes to already be true) is always a productive endeavor.
It’s all “concepts,” and mathematics and statistics have done a great job at rigorizing
and symbolizing tools for the purpose of communication. Otherwise, “probability,” for
instance, remains an elusive concept and the phrase “the result is probably not due to
chance” is not measurable. Mathematics and statistics give us a way to measure those
ideas, those concepts. As Fisher again once told us, you may not be able to avoid
chance and uncertainty, but if you can measure and quantify it, you are on to some-
thing. However, measuring uncertainty in a scientific (as opposed to an abstract) con-
text can be exceedingly difficult.

Advice for Instructors

The book can be used at either the advanced undergraduate or graduate levels, or for
self-study. The book is ideal for a 16-week course, for instance one in a Fall or Spring
semester, and may prove especially useful for programs that only have space or desire
to feature a single data-analytic course for students. Instructors can use the book as a
primary text or as a supplement to a more theoretical book that unpacks the con-
cepts featured in this book. Exercises at the end of each chapter can be assigned weekly
and can be discussed in class or reviewed by a teaching assistant in lab. The goal of the
exercises should be to get students thinking critically and creatively, not simply
getting the “right answer.”
It is hoped that you enjoy this book as a gentle introduction to the world of applied
statistics using Python. Please feel free to contact me at [email protected]
or [email protected] should you have any comments or corrections. For data files
and errata, please visit www.datapsyc.com.

Daniel J. Denis
March, 2021

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 1

A Brief Introduction and Overview of Applied Statistics

CHAPTER OBJECTIVES
■■ How probability is the basis of statistical and scientific thinking.
■■ Examples of statistical inference and thinking in the COVID-19 pandemic.
■■ Overview of how null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) works.
■■ The relationship between statistical inference and decision-making.
■■ Error rates in statistical thinking and how to minimize them.
■■ The difference between a point estimator and an interval estimator.
■■ The difference between a continuous vs. discrete variable.
■■ Appreciating a few of the more salient philosophical underpinnings of applied statistics
and science.
■■ Understanding scales of measurement, nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio.
■■ Data analysis, data science, and “big data” distinctions.

The goal of this first chapter is to provide a global overview of the logic behind statisti-
cal inference and how it is the basis for analyzing data and addressing scientific prob-
lems. Statistical inference, in one form or another, has existed at least going back to the
Greeks, even if it was only relatively recently formalized into a complete system. What
unifies virtually all of statistical inference is that of probability. Without probability,
statistical inference could not exist, and thus much of modern day statistics would not
exist either (Stigler, 1986).
When we speak of the probability of an event occurring, we are seeking to know the
likelihood of that event. Of course, that explanation is not useful, since all we have
done is replace probability with the word likelihood. What we need is a more precise
definition. Kolmogorov (1903–1987) established basic axioms of probability and was
thus influential in the mathematics of modern-day probability theory. An axiom in
mathematics is basically a statement that is assumed to be true without requiring any
proof or justification. This is unlike a theorem in mathematics, which is only consid-
ered true if it can be rigorously justified, usually by other allied parallel mathematical
results. Though the axioms help establish the mathematics of probability, they surpris-
ingly do not help us define exactly what probability actually is. Some statisticians,

Applied Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate Statistics Using Python: A Beginner’s Guide to
Advanced Data Analysis, First Edition. Daniel J. Denis.
© 2021 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Published 2021 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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 2 1 A Brief Introduction and Overview of Applied Statistics

scientists and philosophers hold that probability is a relative frequency, while others
find it more useful to consider probability as a degree of belief. An example of a rela-
tive frequency would be flipping a coin 100 times and observing the number of heads
that result. If that number is 40, then we might estimate the probability of heads on the
coin to be 0.40, that is, 40/100. However, this number can also reflect our degree of
belief in the probability of heads, by which we based our belief on a relative frequency.
There are cases, however, in which relative frequencies are not so easily obtained or
virtually impossible to estimate, such as the probability that COVID-19 will become a
seasonal disease. Often, experts in the area have to provide good guesstimates based on
prior knowledge and their clinical opinion. These probabilities are best considered
subjective probabilities as they reflect a degree of belief or disbelief in a theory
rather than a strict relative frequency. Historically, scholars who espouse that proba-
bility can be nothing more than a relative frequency are often called frequentists,
while those who believe it is a degree of belief are usually called Bayesians, due to
Bayesian statistics regularly employing subjective probabilities in its development and
operations. A discussion of Bayesian statistics is well beyond the scope of this chapter
and book. For an excellent introduction, as well as a general introduction to the rudi-
ments of statistical theory, see Savage (1972).
When you think about it for a moment, virtually all things in the world are probabil-
istic. As a recent example, consider the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. Since the start of
the outbreak, questions involving probability were front and center in virtually all
media discussions. That is, the undertones of probability, science, and statistical infer-
ence were virtually everywhere where discussions of the pandemic were to be had.
Concepts of probability could not be avoided. The following are just a few of the ques-
tions asked during the pandemic:
■■ What is the probability of contracting the virus, and does this probability vary as
a function of factors such as pre-existing conditions or age? In this latter case, we
might be interested in the conditional probability of contracting COVID-19 given
a pre-existing condition or advanced age. For example, if someone suffers from heart
disease, is that person at greatest risk of acquiring the infection? That is, what is the
probability of COVID-19 infection being conditional on someone already suffering
from heart disease or other ailments?
■■ What proportion of the general population has the virus? Ideally, researchers wanted
to know how many people world-wide had contracted the virus. This constituted a
case of parameter estimation, where the parameter of interest was the proportion
of cases world-wide having the virus. Since this number was unknown, it was typi-
cally estimated based on sample data by computing a statistic (i.e. in this case, a
proportion) and using that number to infer the true population proportion. It is
important to understand that the statistic in this case was a proportion, but it could
have also been a different function of the data. For example, a percentage increase
or decrease in COVID-19 cases was also a parameter of interest to be estimated via
sample data across a particular period of time. In all such cases, we wish to estimate
a parameter based on a statistic.
■■ What proportion of those who contracted the virus will die of it? That is, what is the
estimated total death count from the pandemic, from beginning to end? Statistics
such as these involved projections of death counts over a specific period of time

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 1 A Brief Introduction and Overview of Applied Statistics 3

and relied on already established model curves from similar pandemics. Scientists
who study infectious diseases have historically documented the likely (i.e. read:
“probabilistic”) trajectories of death rates over a period of time, which incorporates
estimates of how quickly and easily the virus spreads from one individual to the
next. These estimates were all statistical in nature. Estimates often included confi-
dence limits and bands around projected trajectories as a means of estimating the
degree of uncertainty in the prediction. Hence, projected estimates were in the
opinion of many media types “wrong,” but this was usually due to not understand-
ing or appreciating the limits of uncertainty provided in the original estimates. Of
course, uncertainty limits were sometimes quite wide, because predicting death
rates was very difficult to begin with. When one models relatively wide margins
of error, one is protected, in a sense, from getting the projection truly wrong.
But of course, one needs to understand what these limits represent, otherwise they
can be easily misunderstood. Were the point estimates wrong? Of course they were!
We knew far before the data came in that the point projections would be off.
Virtually all point predictions will always be wrong. The issue is whether the
data fell in line with the prediction bands that were modeled (e.g. see Figure 1.1). If
a modeler sets them too wide, then the model is essentially quite useless. For
instance, had we said the projected number of deaths would be between 1,000 and
5,000,000 in the USA, that does not really tell us much more than we could have
guessed by our own estimates not using data at all! Be wary of “sophisticated mod-
els” that tell you about the same thing (or even less!) than you could have guessed
on your own (e.g. a weather model that predicts cold temperatures in Montana in
December, how insightful!).

Figure 1.1 Sample death predictions in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic in
2020. The connected dots toward the right of the plot (beyond the break in the line) represent
a point prediction for the given period (the dots toward the left are actual deaths based on
prior time periods), while the shaded area represents a band of uncertainty. From the current
date in the period of October 2020 forward (the time in which the image was published), the
shaded area increases in order to reflect greater uncertainty in the estimate. Source: CDC
(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention); Materials Developed by CDC. Used with Permission.
Available at CDC (www.cdc.gov) free of charge.

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 4 1 A Brief Introduction and Overview of Applied Statistics

■■ Measurement issues were also at the heart of the pandemic (though rarely addressed
by the media). What exactly constituted a COVID-19 case? Differentiating between
individuals who died “of” COVID-19 vs. died “with” COVID-19 was paramount, yet
was often ignored in early reports. However, the question was central to everything!
“Another individual died of COVID-19” does not mean anything if we do not know the
mechanism or etiology of the death. Quite possibly, COVID-19 was a correlate to death
in many cases, not a cause. That is, within a typical COVID-19 death could lie a virtual
infinite number of possibilities that “contributed” in a sense, to the death. Perhaps one
person died primarily from the virus, whereas another person died because they already
suffered from severe heart disease, and the addition of the virus simply complicated the
overall health issue and overwhelmed them, which essentially caused the death.
To elaborate on the above point somewhat, measurement issues abound in scientific
research and are extremely important, even when what is being measured is seem-
ingly, at least at first glance, relatively simple and direct. If there are issues with how
best to measure something like “COVID death,” just imagine where they surface else-
where. In psychological research, for instance, measurement is even more challeng-
ing, and in many cases adequate measurement is simply not possible. This is why
some natural scientists do not give much psychological research its due (at least in
particular subdivisions of psychology), because they are doubtful that the measure-
ment of such characteristics as anxiety, intelligence, and many other things is even
possible. Self-reports are also usually fraught with difficulty as well. Hence, assessing
the degree of depression present may seem trivial to someone who believes that a self-
report of such symptoms is meaningless. “But I did a complex statistical analysis using
my self-report data.” It doesn’t matter if you haven’t sold to the reader what you’re
analyzing was successfully measured. The most important component to a house is its
foundation. Some scientists would require a more definite “marker” such as a bio-
logical gene or other more physical characteristic or behavioral observation before
they take your ensuing statistical analysis seriously. Statistical complexity usually does
not advance a science on its own. Resolution of measurement issues is more often the
paramount problem to be solved.
The key point from the above discussion is that with any research, with any scien-
tific investigation, scientists are typically interested in estimating population parame-
ters based on information in samples. This occurs by way of probability, and hence one
can say that virtually the entire edifice of statistical and scientific inference is based on
the theory of probability. Even when probability is not explicitly invoked, for instance
in the case of the easy result in an experiment (e.g. 100 rats live who received COVID-
19 treatment and 100 control rats die who did not receive treatment), the elements of
probability are still present, as we will now discuss in surveying at a very intuitive level
how classical hypothesis testing works in the sciences.

1.1 How Statistical Inference Works

Armed with some examples of the COVID-19 pandemic, we can quite easily illustrate
the process of statistical inference on a very practical level. The traditional and classi-
cal workhorse of statistical inference in most sciences is that of null hypothesis

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 1.1 How Statistical Inference Works 5

significance testing (NHST), which originated with R.A. Fisher in the early 1920s.
Fisher is largely regarded as the “father of modern statistics.” Most of the classical
techniques used today are due to the mathematical statistics developed in the early
1900s (and late 1800s). Fisher “packaged” the technique of NHST for research workers
in agriculture, biology, and other fields, as a way to grapple with uncertainty in evalu-
ating hypotheses and data. Fisher’s contributions revolutionized how statistics are
used to answer scientific questions (Denis, 2004).
Though NHST can be used in several different contexts, how it works is remarkably
the same in each. A simple example will exemplify its logic. Suppose a treatment is
discovered that purports to cure the COVID-19 virus and an experiment is set up to
evaluate whether it does or not. Two groups of COVID-19 sufferers are recruited who
agree to participate in the experiment. One group will be the control group, while the
other group will receive the novel treatment. Of the subjects recruited, half will be
randomly assigned to the control group, while the other half to the experimental
group. This is an experimental design and constitutes the most rigorous means
known to humankind for establishing the effectiveness of a treatment in science.
Physicists, biologists, psychologists, and many others regularly use experimental
designs in their work to evaluate potential treatment effects. You should too!
Carrying on with our example, we set up what is known as a null hypothesis,
which in our case will state that the number of individuals surviving in the control
group will be the same as that in the experimental group after 30 days from the start of
the experiment. Key to this is understanding that the null hypothesis is about popula-
tion parameters, not sample statistics. If the drug is not working, we would expect,
under the most ideal of conditions, the same survival rates in each condition in the
population under the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis in this case happens to
specify a difference of zero; however, it should be noted that the null hypothesis does
not always need to be about zero effect. The “null” in “null hypothesis” means it is the
hypothesis to be nullified by the statistical test. Having set up our null, we then
hypothesize a statement contrary to the null, known as the alternative hypothesis.
The alternative hypothesis is generally of two types. The first is the statistical alter-
native hypothesis, which is essentially and quite simply a statement of the comple-
ment to the null hypothesis. That is, it is a statement of “not the null.” Hence, if the
null hypothesis is rejected, the statistical alternative hypothesis is automatically
inferred. For our data, suppose after 30 days, the number of people surviving in the
experimental group is equal to 50, while the number of people surviving in the control
group is 20. Under the null hypothesis, we would have expected these survival rates to
be equal. However, we have observed a difference in our sample. Since it is merely
sample data, we are not really interested in this particular result specifically. Rather,
we are interested in answering the following question:

What is the probability of observing a difference such as we have observed

in our sample if the true difference in the population is equal to 0?
The above is the key question that repeats itself in one form or another in virtually
every evaluation of a null hypothesis. That is, state a value for a parameter, then evalu-
ate the probability of the sample result obtained in light of the null hypothesis. You
might see where the argument goes from here. If the probability of the sample result is

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 6 1 A Brief Introduction and Overview of Applied Statistics

relatively high under the null, then we have no reason to reject the null hypothesis in
favor of the statistical alternative. However, if the probability of the sample result is
low under the null, then we take this as evidence that the null hypothesis may be false.
We do not know if it is false, but we reject it because of the implausibility of the data in
light of it. A rejection of the null hypothesis does not necessarily mean the null
is false. What it does mean is that we will act as though it is false or potentially
make scientific decisions based on its presumed falsity. Whether it is actually false or
not usually remains an unknown in many cases.
For our example, if the number of people surviving in each group in our sample were
equal to 50 spot on, then we definitely would not have evidence to reject the null
hypothesis. Why not? Because a sample result of 50 and 50 lines up exactly with what
we would expect under the null hypothesis. That is, it lines up perfectly with expecta-
tion under the null model. However, if the numbers turned up as they did earlier, 50
vs. 20, and we found the probability of this result to be rather small under the null,
then it could be taken as evidence to possibly reject the null hypothesis and infer the
alternative that the survival rates in each group are not the same. This is where the
substantive or research alternative hypothesis comes in. Why were the survival
rates found to be different? For our example, this is an easy one. If we did our experi-
ment properly, it is hopefully due to the treatment. However, had we not performed a
rigorous experimental design, then concluding the substantive or research hypoth-
esis becomes much more difficult. That is, simply because you are able to reject a null
hypothesis does not in itself lend credit to the substantive alternative hypothesis of
your wishes and dreams. The substantive alternative hypothesis should naturally drop
out or be a natural consequence of the rigorous approach and controls implemented
for the experiment. If it does not, then drawing a substantive conclusion becomes very
much more difficult if not impossible. This is one reason why drawing conclu-
sions from correlational research can be exceedingly difficult, if not impossi-
ble. If you do not have a bullet-proof experimental design, then logically it becomes
nearly impossible to know why the null was rejected. Even if you have a strong experi-
mental design such conclusions are difficult under the best of circumstances, so if you
do not have this level of rigor, you are in hot water when it comes to drawing strong
conclusions. Many published research papers feature very little scientific support for
purported scientific claims simply based on a rejection of a null hypothesis. This is due
to many researchers not understanding or appreciating what a rejection of the null
means (and what it does not mean). As we will discuss later in the book, rejecting a
null hypothesis is, usually, and by itself, no big deal at all.

The goal of scientific research on a statistical level is generally to learn about population
parameters. Since populations are usually quite large, scientists typically study statistics
based on samples and make inferences toward the population based on these samples.
Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) involves putting forth a null hypothesis and then
evaluating the probability of obtained sample evidence in light of that null. If the probability of
such data occurring is relatively low under the null hypothesis, this provides evidence against
the null and an inference toward the statistical alternative hypothesis. The substantive
alternative hypothesis is the research reason for why the null was rejected and typically is
known or hypothesized beforehand by the nature of the research design. If the research design
is poor, it can prove exceedingly difficult or impossible to infer the correct research alternative.
Experimental designs are usually preferred for this (and many other) reasons.

c01.indd 6 09-04-2021 10:40:22

 1.2 Statistics and Decision-Making 7

1.2 Statistics and Decision-Making

We have discussed thus far that a null hypothesis is typically rejected when the prob-
ability of observed data in the sample is relatively small under the posited null. For
instance, with a simple example of 100 flips of a presumably fair coin, we would for
certain reject the null hypothesis of fairness if we observed, for example, 98 heads.
That is, the probability of observing 98 heads on 100 flips of a fair coin is very small.
However, when we reject the null, we could be wrong. That is, rejecting fairness
could be a mistake. Now, there is a very important distinction to make here. Rejecting
the null hypothesis itself in this situation is likely to be a good decision. We have
every reason to reject it based on the number of heads out of 100 flips. Obtaining 98
heads is more than enough statistical evidence in the sample to reject the null.
However, as mentioned, a rejection of the null hypothesis does not necessarily mean
the null hypothesis is false. All we have done is reject it. In other words, it is entirely
possible that the coin is fair, but we simply observed an unlikely result. This is the
problem with statistical inference, and that is, there is always a chance of being
wrong in our decision to reject a null hypothesis and infer an alternative.
That does not mean the rejection itself was wrong. It means simply that our decision
may not turn out to be in our favor. In other words, we may not get a “lucky out-
come.” We have to live with that risk of being wrong if we are to make virtually any
decisions (such as leaving the house and crossing the street or going shopping during
a pandemic).
The above is an extremely important distinction and cannot be emphasized enough.
Many times, researchers (and others, especially media) evaluate decisions based not
on the logic that went into them, but rather on outcomes. This is a philosophically
faulty way of assessing the goodness of a decision, however. The goodness of the deci-
sion should be based on whether it was made based on solid and efficient decision-
making principles that a rational agent would make under similar circumstances,
not whether the outcome happened to accord with what we hoped to see. Again,
sometimes we experience lucky outcomes, sometimes we do not, even when our deci-
sion-making criteria is “spot on” in both cases. This is what the art of decision-making
is all about. The following are some examples of popular decision-making events and
the actual outcome of the given decision:
■■ The Iraq war beginning in 2003. Politics aside, a motivator for invasion was presum-
ably whether or not Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction. We
know now that he apparently did not, and hence many have argued that the inva-
sion and subsequent war was a mistake. However, without a proper decision anal-
ysis of the risks and probabilities beforehand, the quality of the decision should not
be based on the lucky or unlucky outcome. For instance, if as assessed by experts in
the area the probability of finding weapons of mass destruction (and that they would
be used) were equal to 0.99, then the logic of the decision to go to war may have been
a good one. The outcome of not finding such weapons, in the sense we are discuss-
ing, was simply an “unlucky” outcome. The decision, however, may have been cor-
rect. However, if the decision analysis revealed a low probability of having such
weapons or whether they would be used, then regardless of the outcome, the actual
decision would have been a poor one.

c01.indd 7 09-04-2021 10:40:22

 8 1 A Brief Introduction and Overview of Applied Statistics

■■ The decision in 2020 to essentially shut down the US economy in the month of
March due to the spread of COVID-19. Was it a good decision? The decision should
not be evaluated based on the outcome of the spread or the degree to which it
affected people’s lives. The decision should be evaluated on the principles and logic
that went into the decision beforehand. Whether a lucky outcome or not was
achieved is a different process to the actual decision that was made. Likewise, the
decision to purchase a stock then lose all of one’s investment cannot be based on the
outcome of oil dropping to negative numbers during the pandemic. It must be
instead evaluated on the decision-making criteria that went into the decision. You
may have purchased a great stock prior to the pandemic, but got an extremely
unlucky and improbable outcome when the oil crash hit.
■■ The launch of SpaceX in May of 2020, returning Americans to space. On the day of
the launch, there was a slight chance of lightning in the area, but the risk was low
enough to go ahead with the launch. Had lightning occurred and it adversely
affected the mission, it would not have somehow meant a poor decision was made.
What it would have indicated above all else is that an unlucky outcome occurred.
There is always a measure of risk tolerance in any event such as this. The goal in
decision-making is generally to calibrate such risk and minimize it to an acceptable
and sufficient degree.

1.3 Quantifying Error Rates in Decision-Making: Type I

and Type II Errors

As discussed thus far, decision-making is risky business. Virtually all decisions are
made with at least some degree of risk of being wrong. How that risk is distributed and
calibrated, and the costs of making the wrong decision, are the components that must
be considered before making the decision. For example, again with the coin, if we start
out assuming the coin is fair (null hypothesis), then reject that hypothesis after obtain-
ing a large number of heads out of 100 flips, though the decision is logical, reality itself
may not agree with our decision. That is, the coin may, in reality, be fair. We simply
observed a string of heads that may simply be due to chance fluctuation. Now, how are
we ever to know if the coin is fair or not? That’s a difficult question, since according to
frequentist probabilists, we would literally need to flip the coin forever to get the true
probability of heads. Since we cannot study an infinite population of coin flips, we are
always restricted on betting based on the sample, and hoping our bet gets us a lucky
outcome.
What may be most surprising to those unfamiliar with statistical inference, is that
quite remarkably, statistical inference in science operates on the same philosophical
principles as games of chance in Vegas! Science is a gamble and all decisions have
error rates. Again, consider the idea of a potential treatment being advanced for
COVID-19 in 2020, the year of the pandemic. Does the treatment work? We hope so,
but if it does not, what are the risks of it not working? With every decision, there are
error rates, and error rates also imply potential opportunity costs. Good decisions are
made with an awareness of the benefits of being correct or the costs of being wrong.
Beyond that, we roll the proverbial dice and see what happens.

c01.indd 8 09-04-2021 10:40:22

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 Between the hours of 8 and 11 the Executive Mansion was
thronged by a crowd, in many senses of the word truly dramatic.
There were those who went to see the “show” and those who were
there on exhibition. There is no surer sign of deterioration in
entertainments than the absence of women, and last night the men
outnumbered the gentler sex ten to one. No doubt these masculines
were drawn there to show their sympathy or gratify their curiosity;
but President Johnson seemed indifferent to all surroundings. His
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by his profession, is allowed to come. The President was flanked by
his illustrious Cabinet, with one exception. The head was
represented by the so-called Secretary of State, and Secretary
Thomas (ad interim) brought this ingenious combination to an
ignoble end. As the real Secretary of State was killed at or about the
same time as our lamented Lincoln, it would seem that the present
incumbent is allowed to tarry in order to prove to the world what a
fearful thing it is to outlive a once useful, honorable and perfectly
rounded life. Let this great, warm-hearted nation forgive him, and
inscribe on his living headstone: “Here lies the man who brought on
his death by wanting to be President.”
Secretary McCulloch, sleek, oily, blonde-haired, helped to relieve
the background of the Presidential picture; and to look at him one
would hardly realize that he is the rock upon which so many
officeseekers’ hopes have been split; and yet there is a certain snap
about his mouth that would remind one of a tobacco-box shut up
and put away for future use. A fine-faced, matronly woman clung to
his arm, clad in shimmering sea of green moire antique, with almost
any number of milky pearls on her person, and strangers called her
Mrs. McCulloch. Father Gideon occupied the same position and
appeared in the same attitude that he does in the great historical
picture painted by Carpenter. Ever since he has come into possession
of the goose that lays the golden egg he has helped every President
to a seat on his shoulders, just as Sinbad was aided by the “Old Man
of the Sea;” and if our next President becomes saddled, it is only the
seal of the great Solomon or more than mortal heroism that can
cope with this naval magician, for to all appearance he is to be a
national fixture for all time to come. Secretary Browning is a medium
sized, sunny-faced man, attractive as a streaked apple. He had a
youthful, pretty woman on his arm, and it was apparent to
everybody that if any one resigned his Department in order to attend
to the President, or other important business, affairs would be
looked after as faithfully as the Attorney-General’s, or with the same
diligent routine that stamps him an efficient Secretary of the Interior.
General Hancock was there, the handsomest man a woman’s eyes
ever rested upon in the military service. No matter about his record
in New Orleans; no matter about the dubious reasons that brought
him to Washington. Queen Bess, one of the greatest women that
ever lived, would have made him prime minister at once, and if
Andrew Johnson wishes to emulate this illustrious woman, and add
glory to his declining reign, none but a Senate lost to the most
exquisite emotions will interfere. Towering a whole head and
shoulders above foreign ministers and all others in the room, one’s
eyes must be raised to view the stars on his shoulders, just as they
are lifted to the flaming star that rests upon the strap of Perseus,
proving him to be one of the greatest generals in the heavens.
Heretofore a President’s levee has been a fair sample of different
layers of society; this last one has been the exception. There were
the President’s few confidential advisers, and those allied to him
through interest who remained in the room with him, dividing and
sharing the honor which they must feel is slipping away. Secretary
Seward received by the side of Mrs. Patterson. General Hancock held
his reception a short distance from the President; whilst the
policeman on duty and Marshal Gooding, who has to perform the
task of introduction, looked as if they wished the farce was over. The
East Room seemed an immense bee-hive, swarming with black-
coated honeybees, and if the truth must certainly be told, the
queens were as scarce as in any other well-behaved, respectable
hive. At precisely 11 o’clock the Marine Band tied up their shining
horns and scattered in the darkness, the guests vanished, and the
Executive Mansion was left to its uneasy dreams.
Olivia.
 MARY CL EMMER AMES.

Tribute to the Talented Correspondent of the New York Independent.

Washington, March 31, 1868.

The fourth day of the trial of the great impeachment case is made
memorable by the speech of Benjamin F. Butler. Whilst he was
completing his tower of brilliancy and logic, the lightning was playing
with the beginning of it, and when he had finished the great cities of
the Union were as wise as we who sat within the sound of his voice.
The struggle to obtain tickets equalled, if it did not exceed, the
opening day of the trial, and the same elegant, aristocratic crowd
filled the galleries, the women, as usual, outnumbering the men.
The only really odious thing connected with the trial is the ticket
system. Suppose a crowd does gather in the Capitol, the most
perfect order prevails, and there are so many police on duty that it is
very easy to protect the Senate and push back the waves of
humanity. The grocer’s wife, the humblest citizen, has just as much
right to hear the impeachment trial as the wife or the friend of a
Congressman; and when the galleries are properly filled, what
hinders the police from meeting the late comers and turning their
unwilling footsteps away? Anything that smacks of aristocracy or
exclusiveness should instantly be put under the feet of every
American citizen. It is the masses who are the real aristocracy,
because they are the source of all power; and the moment our
public servants dare to draw lines that in any way interfere with this
great, good-natured maelstrom, the least of this mass can put a
stone in a sling which will do as good execution as the pebble of the
immortal David.
 Senator Wade has left the chair and Chief Justice Chase
immediately succeeds him. For an instant let us survey this cold,
haughty, handsome face. Not for a moment could one imagine fire
coursing along his veins. His lips move, but only inarticulate sound
reaches the gallery. The New York Independent must be mistaken
when it says “he has become the friend of Andrew Johnson, the idol
of the young Democracy.” Ambition may consume him with its
unquenchable fire, but with the corpse of William H. Seward before
his eyes he will never commit suicide. The Senate chamber is as
quiet as a vaulted tomb. The orator of the day arises, and thousands
of eyes are brought to a sudden focus. Benjamin F. Butler has the
floor. History has associated the name of Burke with Warren
Hastings; and inseparably linked must be the names of Butler and
Andrew Johnson. Mr. Butler is not an orator. He did not attempt to
impress a jury. He simply read a great speech to the whole country,
expecting the people to read it after him, and weigh its arguments
discriminately; to note the strong points, and feel that Benjamin F.
Butler had proved himself equal to the task imposed upon him as a
trusted servant of the American people. In making up the gifts for
this rare son, it must be said that Old Mother Nature denied him
beauty; but he had managed to outwit the fickle old dame and come
out even with her at last, for amongst the few beautiful women in
the gallery Blanche Butler, the petite daughter, was fairest amongst
the fair. “What a strong resemblance between the two!” you say. The
crooked eyes are straightened, a little added to their size, and the
same fire is flung into them both. In one case you have a pair of
Oriental almonds, seen nowhere outside of Correggio’s Madonnas. In
the other, you have eyes belonging to Benjamin Butler. The
description ends. There is nothing on earth out of which to
manufacture comparison.
In the exclusive crowd which filled the galleries, it may be said
there were two grand divisions—the aristocracy and the press. The
first named were elevated to their seats by their social relations; the
latter by the divine right of being anointed sovereigns in the world of
mind, born to their inheritance, like the Bourbons and Hapsburgs.
Conspicuous amongst the limited but strictly exclusive set might be
seen the delicate, spiritual face of Mary Clemmer Ames, of the New
York Independent. She writes poetry; the newspapers tell us all that.
She also writes stately, solemn prose. Sometimes it is bitter and
pungent, as many of our public men know. How easy and smooth
the machinery of her mind must work! There are no sudden jars in
the cogwheels of her brain, for her face is almost as smooth as a
dimpled babe’s. She is pure womanly, from the low, handsome brow
to the taper fingers, and when the time comes that woman shall
stand upon the true platform of equality and justice Mary Clemmer
Ames, with all the rest of the same sisterhood, will be remembered
as the noble pioneers whose united efforts alone achieved the great
work.
Speaking of women in the world of mind, Anna E. Dickinson
addressed a fashionable audience here last night, and as we have
taken a solemn oath to say nothing but honest words we must say
that we don’t like to hear her talk. That she is brilliant and gifted,
that Philadelphia has reason to be proud of this talented child, it
were useless to deny. But God help the woman when honey no
longer drops from her lips, when nothing but gall issues from the
coral crevice! She gives the Republican party no credit for what it
has done, but only heaps abuse and scurrility upon it because it has
not done more. She hurls arguments at the heads with sledge-
hammer blows, but she forgets to use woman’s strongest, surest,
most fatal weapon—that jeweled, nameless, enchanted dagger, that,
if found in the hand of the weakest among us, never fails of
reaching the heart.
Olivia.
 AT THE IMP EACHMENT TR IAL .

“Ad Interim” Thomas Flayed by General Butler—Kindness of the Wife of

Senator Wilson.

Washington, April 14, 1868.

The interest surrounding the impeachment trial deepens. The
blows of the aggressive Butler are met and sometimes parried by the
sharp rapier of Evarts or the stout claymore of Stanbery. The
President has wisely chosen some of the subtlest minds in the
country to defend him, and it is almost worth the fruit of a lifetime
to sit in the presence of such a court, the jury composed of the
choicest men of each sister State, the lawyers upon both sides the
picked men of the country, whilst some of the witnesses have a
world-wide reputation, and the spectators, with but few exceptions,
are rare exotics, gathered from the best hothouses in the land.
The sparring on both sides during Friday and Saturday was a
perfect feast to those who like to see mind meet mind—who enjoy
the din and crash of ideas; but what is the use of stirring up the
cesspool into which Andrew Johnson has plunged, and for whom
there is no earthly resurrection? Is not the country sick unto death
of these poisonous exhalations? Andrew Johnson has broken the
laws of the land. In the name of the humblest citizen, what can be
offered in his defence?
The Sage of the Tribune says, “Stick to the point, gentlemen; stick
to the point,” and a placard to this effect should be paraded before
their eyes in every loyal paper of the country. The President’s
conversations with General Sherman and other officers are of no
more importance to the people of the United States than his delicate
semi-official talk with Mrs. Cobb. If we are to have one, why not the
other? Why not let the land shake its rocky sides, and one broad grin
stretch its awful mouth from Plymouth Rock to the silver sands of
the Pacific slope? “Stick to the point, gentlemen; stick to the point.”
For all future time General Lorenzo Thomas will be known only as
“Ad Interim” Thomas. Even the newsboys cry, “Here’s your evening
paper. Testimony of ‘Ad Interim.’” If the poet had only lived long
enough to have seen this man he would never have written, “Frailty,
thy name is woman!” unless he had put in a clause intimating that
sometimes Dame Nature in her haste makes mistakes; for Nature
intended Lorenzo Thomas to be feminine. She gave him a slender
waist and sloping shoulders, arched instep and taper fingers, and in
place of a beard planted a few seed on his chin; and long years of
cultivation have only proved that some productions of nature will not
flourish on a foreign soil. If any more proof were necessary it is his
testimony before the Senate on Friday, when he says: “Mr. Stanton
put his arm around my neck, as he used to do, in a familiar manner,
and says—” No matter about that. As the heroic and honorable
Secretary of War thus far has made no mistake, is it not to be
inferred that he knew what was so deftly hidden from mortal view?
The spiritual intercourse between the two must have been complete.
If anything more was wanting to touch a sympathetic chord in
every woman’s soul in the vast galleries, to bring her nearer in
sympathy with Lorenzo Thomas, it was the cruel, merciless way in
which General Butler laid bare the heart of this interesting witness.
He brought his little amiable foibles and weaknesses to light of day,
just as the surgeon brings out the queer things with the dissecting
knife. The galleries breathed easy when the tortures were over.
It was refreshing, at last, to see the soldierly form of General
Sherman advancing to the witness stand. There are some
handsomer men in the Senate chamber at this moment, but none of
finer or more exquisite workmanship. The high forehead and eagle
eyes; the thin, quivering nostril, and square manly shoulders; the
muscles of wire-drawn steel. Like an exquisite stringed instrument,
he must be kept up to concert pitch, and then follows such ravishing
melody; but out of tune, or with a string broken, horrible discord
would be sure to follow. He may be the best of husbands and
fathers, but it is very plain that Nature was intent upon fashioning a
good soldier, a leader amongst men, and in this particular instance
she had made no mistake.
Reader, let your mind’s eye wander to the galleries. At the right of
the diplomatic seats sits a woman reminding us of an English
duchess. She is not delicate or sylph-like; on the contrary, nothing
shall be said about avoirdupois. She is elegant and distinguished
looking. Her black, flowing drapery is moire antique; a costly
camel’s-hair shawl is thrown carelessly back from her shoulders, and
lilac plumes dance and flutter with every turn of her head;
amethysts and diamonds hang suspended from her ears, and her
left hand sparkles with the weight of a moderate fortune. Would you
know her title? It is the same whose name flew all over the country
in connection with the Prince of Wales at the time the Gothamites
feasted the Prince and provided him with a partner also. It will be
remembered that on that most important evening the floor fell into
the cellar, and there are people of to-day who are no wiser than to
say, “No wonder! No wonder!” In the sky of wealth and fashion in
Washington, this queenly woman is a flaming star of the first
magnitude; or, more properly speaking, she is the Pleiades, Hyades,
and possibly the “big dipper” also.
And now, reader, you are to know about the wife of a Senator who
is not in her coveted seat to-day, for the reason that she has given
to one of her husband’s constituents her ticket, and, therefore, like
the humblest amongst us, has to remain at home. Would you know
this pure type of womanhood, who says with her own lips, “We owe
more to our constituents than to ourselves”? Would you know the
woman whose sincere pity goes unchallenged amidst all this frivolity
and wickedness, and whose unostentatious charity would be as
refreshing and as broadcast as the evening dew if the source of
supply was as unfailing as her own generous heart? Scarcely a public
institution of charity exists in Washington without her name on the
roll call and she alone gathered the first thousand dollars that made
the “Newsboys’ Home” a success.
There are holy places in the mosque of the Moslems where only
the “faithful” can tread with unsandaled feet, and there are some
human lives so purified and exalted that only the pen of the
Recording Angel is worthy to transfix their fleeting lights and
shadows, their struggles in their upward flight. Ah! reader, would
you know why Senator Wilson lies so close to the heart of cold,
haughty Massachusetts; why he has the least of this world’s goods
of any man in Congress; why he fights so manfully for the poor and
down-trodden; why he is one of the most popular and best-beloved
men in the land? It is because he is strengthened and solaced and
the armor for life’s battle is girded on at home.
Olivia.
 HO N. BENJAMIN F. WADE.

Considered the Proper Size for Presidential Timber.

Washington, April 21, 1868.

The dying throes of the rebellion end with the impeachment trial.
Whilst Grant crushed the head of the reptile in Virginia, and
Sherman’s swarming legions cut the monster in twain, it is left for a
loyal Congress to deal with that part of the serpent which it is said
“never dies till the sun goes down.” The death-dealing rattle of the
Ku Klux Klan is borne to us on the breath of the soft south wind; the
lonely cane-brake still echoes the hunted fugitive’s cry; the hand of
palsy grasps our Southern sister States; and the nation is heart-sick,
well nigh unto death. But the warm glow of another sunrise is upon
us. A new day already dawns in the East, and the coming man
stands before the people, whom destiny has called to be the leader,
and to guide the ship of state into a peaceful sea. All hail! Benjamin
F. Wade, of Ohio.
Massachusetts spared him room to be born, but the great West
nourished him upon her broad bosom, and there his mind drank in
the grand landscape of dimpled lake and sunny, dew-kissed prairie,
and there he learned, irrespective of color or sex, devotion to his
race.
A self-made man like our own lamented Lincoln, looking out upon
the world with the same kind, brown eyes; but there the comparison
ends. Mr. Wade is not tall, ungainly, or awkward. Rather above the
medium height, broad shouldered, he was apparently built for use
instead of ornament, like a printing-press or a steam engine.
Handsome, for the reason that not a weak place in form or feature
shows itself; comely, because every point is purely masculine, with
no trace of the other sex, unless his mother’s soul looks out of his
brown eyes—for it is well known that Mr. Wade is one of the kindest
men in Congress, also woman’s best and truest friend. It is for this
alone that we stand in his presence with uncovered head. It was
Senator Wade who brought the bill before Congress giving to woman
in the District of Columbia the right to hold her own property and
earnings in direct opposition to the rights of a dissolute husband. It
was his personal efforts in the beginning that changed the laws of
Ohio in woman’s favor; and, to use his own language: “I did not do
it because they are women but because it is right. The strong have
no business to oppress the weak.”
Sitting in his presence the other day, we ventured to remark,
“How did it happen, Mr. Wade, that you signed the petition of Mrs.
Frances Lord Bond, recommending her for a consulate? Would you
really advise the country to give a woman such a position?”
The spirit of mirth danced over his face as he replied, “I would
sign any petition that reads as that did. It said, ‘if she could perform
the services better than any one else?’ I had a doubt in my mind
about that; but if she could do the work better than any one else I
would not prevent her because she is a woman.”
There has been a time within the memory of us all when a
shuddering chill has crept up to the vitals of the nation. Then a
plain, straightforward honest man was lifted above all others, far up
to the highest pinnacle of power. As God gave him light to see the
right, he led us through the smoke of battle, over the burning desert
of war, and when the green oasis of peace was in view, he fell by the
bullet of the assassin. Is it Fate, is it God, who reaches forth his
hand and again lifts another straight-forward, unpretending man to
the highest place in the gift of the American people? As a Senator,
who had a purer record? In every crisis, on every national question,
who for a moment doubted where Ben Wade would be found? Who
ever caught him balancing on the top of the fence, if the seeds of
life or death were to be sown broadcast over the land? Admitting
that he has none of the polish of Chesterfield; that he sometimes
nails his sentences with words noted for strength rather than for
elegance and beauty (or that might be left out altogether); that he
may not possess all the classical culture that some of his brother
Senators may boast; yet, as a people sore and heavy laden, let us
thank our Maker for Benjamin F. Wade—kind, noble, honest citizen,
great, not in himself, for men themselves are paltry, but great, just
like a mathematical figure which stands to represent the distance of
the sun. He may be rubbed out, like the digit on the big blackboard,
but the principles embodied in him are as enduring as the mountains
of granite of his own native State.
Olivia.
 TWO NOTABL E WO MEN.

Mrs. Kate Chase Sprague and Mrs. Oakes Ames.

Washington, April 23, 1868.

Like a rolling avalanche, impeachment gathers in size and velocity
as it rushes on to its final resting place. The testimony has all been
taken; the arguments have already commenced. Manager Boutwell
occupied many hours yesterday in reading his arguments. This able
effort will soon find its way into every household in the land, there to
be weighed and judged discriminately; but Manager Boutwell is no
wizard or brownie, and therefore cannot go himself where his words
will fly. How does he look, and what could he see if he should take
his eyes off the printed page and glance hither and yon, to the right,
to the left, or, with both at once, make a grand Balaklava charge? Is
it possible for a man to get to that point in his life when the mind’s
fruit hangs in clustered perfection, like the juicy purple grape of mid-
autumn?
Manager Boutwell is in the zenith of life, rather under the medium
size and compact, and when tested gives the true ring of the
genuine coin, or a perfect piece of porcelain, handsome enough for
all the practical uses of life, but nothing startling or electrical about
him, like Benjamin Butler; and it would seem as if wily
Massachusetts was wide awake, as she has furnished two managers.
But in case General Butler should exhaust himself like fiery Vesuvius,
behold there is Boutwell, cool, solemn, eternal as the glacier-
crowned Alps.
Mr. Boutwell is a good speaker, but his reading seems wearisome,
and yet the galleries listen with attention; at least it is very quiet in
there—not a breath of air to spare.
There is a faint odor of exquisite perfume exhaling from hundreds
of snowy, cob-web handkerchiefs; dainty women scattered here and
there, everywhere. Paris has Eugenie; Washington has Mrs. Senator
Sprague, the acknowledged queen of fashion and good taste. She
occupies a seat at the left of the reader. Her costume is just as
perfect as the lily or the rose. She is a lilac blossom to-day. Not a
particle of jewelry is visible upon her person. She has copied her
bonnet from the pansy or wood violet. A single flower, of lilac tinge,
large enough for the “new style,” rests upon her head, and is
fastened to its place by lilac tulle so filmy that it must have been
stolen from the purple mists of the morning. An exquisite walking
dress of pale lilac silk has trimmings a shade darker, whilst lilac
gloves conceal a hand that might belong to the queen of fairies. Is
she a woman or a flower, to be nipped by the frost; to be pressed
between the leaves of adversity; or, alas! to grow old and wither?
Impossible! She is a flower of immortality; not perfect, it is true, as
other letter-writers say, but she happens to be placed in a sphere
where perfection is expected, and she is mortal like the rest of us.
She shrinks from the hard and lowly task of visiting the wretched
hut, the sick, and the afflicted. So do Victoria and Eugenie, whose
fame is wafted to us across the great water.
To the left of the queen sits another woman distinguished in
Washington society. It is the wife of a millionaire—Mrs. Oakes Ames
of Massachusetts. She is a handsome matron, in the early autumn of
life. She has no desire to shine in the fashionable world, and her
smiling face would only come out the brighter after an eclipse of that
kind. Her elegant parlors are headquarters for old-fashioned
hospitality, and to those who possess the “open sesame” she is
always at home. But it is in Massachusetts that she finds her true
sphere. There she is the wife of the baronet, the “Lady Bountiful of
the neighborhood,” surrounded by her husband’s tenantry or
working people. It is the “squire’s wife” who visits the lowly cottage,
bringing sunshine and temporal relief. It is the “squire” who pays the
clergyman his salary, that his people may be saved through no loss
of spiritual grace, and instead of going to London for the winter they
come to Washington. What! Gossips, you say; but it is an admitted
fact.
Olivia.
 JUDGE NEL SON.

The President’s Counsel During the Impeachment Trial.

Washington, April 27, 1868.

Another effort of the immortal mind has been inscribed upon the
scroll of fame. Judge Nelson, of Tennessee, has spoken in behalf of
the President, and only the pen of genius can do justice to this
dewy, refreshing speech as it fell upon the American Senate.
When it is known that Judge Nelson dropped the cowl of the monk
for the lawyer’s pointed lance, it is not astonishing that he mistook
the Senate for a set of Tennessee sinners, and appealed to its
feeling instead of its judgment. This most interesting speech was
interspersed with poetry, borrowed for the occasion, to be sure, but
of equal use and effectiveness—nevertheless, like mourning
garments, borrowed from friendly neighbors; and yet the speech
was destitute of all solemnity. A rich vein of humor coursed through
it, and the Senate seemed to enjoy the repose so much needed after
the strong arguments of Mr. Boutwell.
It is said Andrew Johnson chose Nelson for these very qualities;
but, gratifying as it may have been to the President, it did not find
favor in the minds of those who are friendly to the lost cause. A
genuine sneer curled itself up and nestled in all the hide-and-seek
places in the delicate face of William M. Evarts, while stately Mr.
Groesbeck seemed severely offended. Members of Congress folded
their unseen tents and silently stole away; the Chief Justice uncoiled
his dignity just enough to catch a breath of the fluttering breeze;
and the high court of impeachment was relieved as if by an
unexpected holiday.
 Judge Nelson was a semi-rebel—a sort of Tennessee neutral—
during the rebellion, and it has not been ascertained whether it was
for this reason that Andrew Johnson chose him for the defence; but
it is now known beyond a doubt that minister and lawyer are so
ingeniously mixed in the judge’s composition that a third compound
is the result, bearing no more resemblance to the first ingredients
than soap bears to oil and alkali.
Mr. Groesbeck had the floor next—apparently a good, strong man,
bearing the same relation to the human family that a fair, rosy-
cheeked apple does to the remainder of the fruit in the orchard. Like
Mr. Stanbery, he pleads illness. His voice seemed in the last stages of
collapse. It is very difficult to catch the hoarse sentences in the
galleries. There is nothing flashing, brilliant, or electrical in his
speech, and if there were, it would be entirely lost, unless it rose,
cloud-like, into the galleries. Hard, cold, flinty argument must be
hurled upon the impassive Senate. Mr. Groesbeck seems to be aware
of this fact, as he contends against the odds.
The gallery wears its usual high-toned, fashionable elegance. A
real hothouse of rare human exotics is gathered together, partaking
of the same weaknesses and desires that animate creation in the
humbler spheres of life. Some of these exquisite butterflies have a
way of spreading their voluminous crinoline to the exclusion of some
unfortunate in want of a seat; but as soon as an acquaintance
makes an appearance, in the twinkling of an eye space is evolved
from a minus quantity and immediately occupied, and the real
honest possessor has no redress except in repeating an ave, or
declaiming mentally the touching poem of “sour grapes.”
Allowing it to be exceedingly gratifying, it is not good taste to be
eating in public. History tells us that a great monarch used to take
his emetics and vomit gracefully in the presence of the court, but
even royalty could not add dignity to, nor throw a rosy glamor over,
one of Nature’s disgraceful freaks. And in the high court of
impeachment no pink-lipped, amber-haired beauty can afford to
distort her features and wantonly assail the ears of her neighbors by
cracking nuts with her pearly teeth. If a woman has neither youth
nor beauty, and commits the same fatal error, “Angels and ministers
of grace defend us!”
Olivia.
 A FAITHFUL SER VANT.

A Comprehensive Review of the Life Work Of Hon. Thaddeus Stevens.

Washington, April 28, 1868.

After the storm and cloud of an eventful life, Thaddeus Stevens
lingers on the disc of the Western horizon, surrounded by the glory
of departing day. As he stands the central figure in the House of
Representatives, he likewise occupies the same place at the
manager’s table in the high court of impeachment. Like Lord
Brougham, his intellectual powers seem to lose little by age, and his
argument in behalf of the House has none superior, if any equal to
it. Short, compact, conclusive, it was made up of the cream of the
whole matter in the dispute. On the day of its delivery, as the Chief
Justice ceased speaking, the galleries were hushed into more than
attentive silence. Slowly the venerable speaker advanced to a chair
on the platform so as to be able to face the Senate, his position
being at the same time such that he could be plainly seen by the
crowd in the vast galleries, who were listening, intent on catching
the faintest word. He seemed to be impressed with the solemnity of
the surroundings, also to realize that the present effort was to be
the last great crowning work of his life. Slowly he rose, trembling,
yet brilliant as the flame that sometimes shoots upward when the
taper burns low in the socket before it expires. His reading, at first
low and tremulous, grew stronger and stronger until it reached every
nook of the vast Senate chamber. As he sat in his easy chair, the
beholder could not help but feel that Thaddeus Stevens lives to
prove to the world the immortality of the soul. He shows that the
body is not necessary to human existence. He shows that passion
can live notwithstanding the fire of life is nearly out; and though
every window of his mansion of clay is broken, and through each
rent and crevice the storm of the outer world pours in, yet, like a
couchant lion in his den, his mind is ready to spring upon an
adversary; and in any work that devolves upon the servants of the
country, Thaddeus Stevens is ready to accept the royal share.
As every season of the year has its beauties, so has every season
of life. Though it be winter, it is only the poor who sigh for the
summer heats. He who is rich in intellect, though he stands upon
the snows of age, partakes of the holiest and most elevated joys. Far
up the mountain the traveler has ascended. Human life, with its
contentions and struggles, is spread out before him in the valley
below. He can look down upon his fellow-man kindly, lovingly, for he
sees the thorn and the bramble, the hidden ditch and the concealed
stone, over which his brother may stumble and sometimes falls. But
as he climbs higher and still higher, the valley, with its smiling river
and fairy dells, fades imperceptibly, the twilight of the upper world
surrounds him, and he sees, both above and below, in letters of
living fire, the single word JUSTICE; and happy is he who, like
Thaddeus Stevens, has made this solemn word his song by day, his
pillar of fire by night, for eternal justice is the living God.
A great many years ago, a Green Mountain boy was fairly
embarked on the ocean of life. No gaily-painted merchantman was
at his command; only a little life-boat, whose paddles were a pair of
strong hands; no supplies, only those so deftly hidden away in the
cunning recesses of his brain. In the beginning he said it is not good
to be alone; so he fashioned himself a banner, inscribed with the
golden letters of Universal Justice, Liberty, and Education. With this
flag upon his bosom, singlehanded and alone, he fought the
ignorant prejudices of the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
This childless bachelor said the State should be taxed to educate the
children. Was it light from the Infinite shining upon Mr. Stevens that
enabled him to see deeper into the welfare of these children than
their own parents or guardians? He met the most powerful
opposition, but proved himself as invulnerable as Achilles without a
heel. He conquered. The commonschool system of Pennsylvania
owes its being to Thaddeus Stevens, and unborn myriads may owe
their success in life to this great benefactor.
There was weeping and wailing heard through the centuries. The
stifled sob of slave mothers smote the air because their babes were
sold into bondage, and though they might be living on the earth yet
were dead to them forever. The slave-pen lifted its atrocious head
and flaunted its pestilential shadows within the call of the nation’s
capital. The auctioneer’s voice rang shrill and clear, going! going!
gone! whilst the American Shylock advanced and paid for his pound
of human flesh. The torturing chain and lash were held in the hand
of the overseer, and with no hope, no refuge, for the fugitive but the
deadly morass or more desolate canebrake, there to be followed by
the keen-scented bloodhound or his still more relentless foe. The
people of Israel lay prostrate with faces buried in the dust, forgotten
by the nations of the earth, apparently forgotten by their God. But
the clouds of wrath gathered, and at last overspread the whole land.
The youthful Republic saw, for the first time, a serious civil war.
Although tried on many a battlefield before, it was in the great war
for the downfall of oppression that Thaddeus Stevens sprang into
existence as the “leader of the House.” It was in the vast arena of
Congress, that awful place, where even more than average men are
lost in its immensity, that Thaddeus Stevens shone with a steady
unfaltering light—a sun with a solar system around him. It was not
alone the untiring efforts of great generals, or the spilling of blood or
the wasting of treasure, that saved the life of the nation. He who
helps to keep the fountain of legislation pure, who keeps the mantle
of trust reposed in him by the people clean and free from the speck
or blemish at all times, whether it be war or peace, is a nation’s
benefactor. Let the nation’s head be uncovered in the presence of
Thaddeus Stevens.
It is the work of a biographer to follow a great man through a long
and well spent life; and it is extremely unfortunate that Mr. Stevens
has never been known to make the acquaintance of a Boswell, for
how much that is crisp and readable must now be lost. It may be
pleasant to know that he has sold his lots in the two cemeteries of
which he was an owner because colored people were refused burial
in them; though it may be possible that he feels that he shall have
future use for them. It is so natural to forget to say that a noble
character has any faults. But who remembers the spots on the sun?
It is enough to know that we owe life to its benign influence.
Long, long, will Mr. Stevens remain photographed upon the minds
of those who now have the honor to behold him, as he sits in his
easy chair day after day. Nature did not make him handsome, but
she fashioned him with a bold, rugged outline, suggesting power
and sublimity, like the solemn mountain or the surf-beaten cliff.
Olivia.
 JOHN A. BINGHAM.

Acquits Himself With Honors in Forensic Conflict.

Washington, May 7, 1868.

Never, even during the late days of storm and darkness, has the
sun set upon such scenes as were enacted on the last day of
argument before the High Court of Impeachment. No more can it be
said that the age of oratory has fled, for John A. Bingham has shown
that there is a man amongst us who possesses the rare power of
electrifying the multitude: of making one vast sea of humanity throb
with overwhelming emotion. I might as well attempt to “paint the
sunbeams” as to give a description of his glowing words. From
history he drew the parallel between James the Second and our
recreant President. Mirabeau’s immortal answer to the king’s usher,
“Go tell your master that bayonets have no power over the will of
the people,” seemed as if uttered anew by the spirit of the great
Frenchman. Never in the history of the world has any man been
called to plead before such a bar, and for such a cause. No court has
existed like it in the world’s annals, and no such criminal has been
called to answer. Only the attributes of conceded genius sustained
Mr. Bingham, and made him strong for the work assigned to him. He
seemed to feel that this trial was not simply a means for the
punishment of one daring offender, but that it was to prove the
strength and stability of republican institutions for all time—to prove
that the strongest are as imbecile before the majesty of the law as
the beggar of the highway.
Upon the floor of the American Senate the majestic scenes of
history are again repeated. One man stands out from the multitude,
pleading the cause of myriads against the aggressive encroachment
of a wicked ruler. Every inch of available space in the vast chamber
contains a human being, and the silence of the grave prevails. Little
by little, blow after blow, as the sculptor chisels the marble, the
orator is building a monument—one which is to stand through the
centuries, long, long after lithe, supple John A. Bingham is only a
handful of dust. No link is missing in the chain; no dead sentiment
clings to his ideas; his perfect sentences are steeped at once in logic
and poetry. It is the handwriting on the wall in letters of living fire.
The orator closes. A momentary silence like that which precedes the
hurricane’s crash, and there arises from floor to ceiling such
confusion which even the vigorous blows of the Chief Justice’s gavel
are inadequate to suppress. It was like the voice of the gallant sea
captain commanding the elements to be still. Then Senator Grimes
comes to the rescue, and moves that the galleries be cleared.
Senator Cameron hopes that the galleries will not be cleared, and
that allowance will be made for the extraordinary occasion. Mr.
Fessenden and Mr. Reverdy Johnson call Mr. Cameron to order, whilst
Mr. Trumbull moves that not only the galleries be cleared, but that all
disorderly persons be arrested. At the same time the British minister
and others in the diplomatic inclosure are seen apparently contesting
their rights with the doorkeepers, whilst a flutter appears in the
reporter’s gallery similar to that noticed in a flock of blackbirds when
a handful of shot has been remorselessly distributed amongst them.
From his throne, which was only a plain, cane-seated chair, Manager
Bingham surveys the tumult. He who has sown the whirlwind
smilingly surveys the storm. He is weary and exhausted, and his
cheek has the pallor of the grave, but he feels that the applause was
for him. The uproar continues. At last the inexorable fiat is
understood. The galleries must be cleared upon the instant. So a
surging tide of humanity pours out of every open door. Little knots of
people are scattered here and there the whole length of the long
corridors, all talking about the one absorbing theme. Grand tableaux
of excited men are grouped in the rotunda, even the stairs have
caught stray whisps of surplus, standing humanity, all madly
intoxicated with the enthusiasm of the hour. The world never seems
weary of Boswell’s talk about Dr. Johnson; and with the same desire
to please, let it be told that Mr. Bingham was asked how he felt after
the proudest triumph of his life. Using his own words: “I don’t know
how I feel; I only know I have spoken enough to make thirty
columns in the Congressional Globe. God knows I have tried to do
my duty; it is in the hands of the Senate now. The great work of my
life is done.”
Day after day we see our neighbor, John A. Bingham, an
unpretending man of simple tastes, and whose mind is a storehouse
of classic culture. About the average height of his fellow-men, he is
far more slender and graceful, and though not handsome according
to the prescribed rules of beauty, yet like the High Court of
Impeachment, which is a law unto itself, he looks like John A.
Bingham, and there is nothing better by which he can be compared,
estimated, or measured.
Olivia.
 AN SON B UR L INGAME.

His Triumphant Capture of the Inhabitants of the Flowery Kingdom.

Washington, June 20, 1868.

A new and startling drama is performing on the world’s stage. The
Occident and the Orient are at last united. The oldest nation on the
face of the earth is shaking hands with the youngest. Gray-bearded
China, after being hermetically sealed during the long ages, opens
her arms to embrace Young America, and in the height of her good
humor includes the rest of the world. Another laurel is added to the
fame of America. A countryman of ours has shown what genius and
courage can accomplish in the great field of diplomacy. Anson
Burlingame has smitten the strongholds of China as Moses smote
the rock in the wilderness, and the sweet waters flow forth in
Washington in the shape of dozens of pig-tailed, almond-eyed,
silken-clad Orientals, who charm by their picturesqueness, and who
leave the gates of wonder standing ajar every day. To the eye of an
ordinary “barbarian” one Chinaman looks as much like another as
two pins from the same paper; but a very close inspection shows
that the two mandarins are made of a little finer clay than the
“suite.” There is just about the same difference as between their
own exquisite porcelain and the modern French china.
Owing to the fashionable shoes of their mother, the mandarins
have inherited feet made expressly for Cinderella’s slipper, whilst
their delicate taper fingers vie with any high-born damsel’s in the
land. They are exceedingly attractive, but the sentiment they inspire
is as strange as themselves. It isn’t the usual homage that woman
gives the opposite sex, and their fluttering silken skirts and fans help
to keep up all sorts of illusions. They have brought a miniature China
with them, in the shape of all that goes to sustain life—their own
servants, cooking utensils, favorite beverages, etc.
The Metropolitan Hotel had been turned into a Chinese pagoda,
and Minister Burlingame and his elegant wife are the presiding
seers, whilst the multitude flock to offer incense at their shrines. Not
an hour can they call their own; and though they are very weary this
exhausting weather, Mr. Burlingame says, “I am so glad to meet with
so much kindness from my countrymen.” It is this warmth—these
genuine, electric flashes of the soul—that melts all opposition. Since
the birth of our young Republic how many wise and good men have
been sent to China; but we must acknowledge that we never sent
the right man before. All honor to the young pioneer who reflects so
much credit upon American diplomacy. It is a plain citizen of our
Republic who introduces the oldest monarchy to the whole civilized
world.
In answer to the question, “How did you bring it about?” “Bring it
about?” said he. “I studied Chinese character. I made them feel that
we meant them no harm. It has been the habit in times past, if any
demand or request was made by foreign powers to the Chinese
Government and the request was not favorably received, to dispatch
a gunboat to make a warm impression. This never was my course of
action. I never resorted to force. I labored to make them feel that
my propositions were for our mutual good; and,” he continued, “I
must not forget to say how much influence women have in China;
for if the two most influential women in the Empire had not favored
the expedition we should not have been seen in this part of the
world. Of these august ladies one was the Empress’ mother; the
other the wife of the Emperor.”
Mr. Burlingame did not say whether he met these ladies face to
face; but, if he did, the birth of the Chinese embassy is no longer a
wonder, for even Queen Elizabeth, one of the greatest sovereigns
that ever lived, was never proof against those subtle, insinuating
influences far easier felt than described.
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