𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ).

𝑃(𝐵/𝐴𝑖 )
𝑃(𝐴𝑖 /𝐵) = 𝑛
∑𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴𝑖 )

𝐴1 : be the event that the ball was drawn from bag X

𝐴2 : be the event that ball was drawn from bag Y

B: B be the event the ball drawn is red (already done)

𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴𝑖 )
𝑃(𝐴𝑖 /𝐵) = 𝑛
∑𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴𝑖 )

𝑃(𝐴2 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 )
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴1 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 )

𝑃(𝐴1 ) =? ?

𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ) =? ?

𝑃(𝐴2 ) =? ?

𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 ) =? ?

𝑆 = {𝑋, 𝑌}

1
𝑃(𝐴1 ) =
2
1
𝑃(𝐴2 ) =
2
3
𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ) =
5
 5
𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 ) =
9

White Red
X 2 3
y 4 5

𝐴1 : be the event that the ball was drawn from bag X

𝐴2 : be the event that ball was drawn from bag Y

B: B be the event the ball drawn is red from bag Y (already done)

𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) =? ?

𝑃(𝐴1 ) =? ?

𝑃(𝐴2 ) =? ?

𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ) =? ?

𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 ) =? ?

𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) =? ?

1
𝑃(𝐴1 ) =
2
1
𝑃(𝐴2 ) =
2
 3
𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ) =
5
5
𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 ) =
9

𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴𝑖 )
𝑃(𝐴𝑖 /𝐵) = 𝑛
∑𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴𝑖 )

1 5
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) = 2.9 =
5 3 5
÷( + )
1 3 1 5 18 10 18
2.5 +2.9
5 3 5
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) = ÷( + )
18 10 18

10=2,5

18= 2,3,3

5 27 + 25
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) = ÷( )
18 90
5 52
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) = ÷( )
18 90
5 26
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) = ÷( )
18 45
5 45
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) = ×
18 26
5 5
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) = ×
2 26
25
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) =
52

Defectives
A 0.25 0.05
 B 0.35 0.04
C 0.40 0.02

𝐴1 : be the event that the drawn bolt is from machine A

𝐴2 : be the event that the drawn bolt is from machine B

𝐴3 : be the event that the drawn bolt is from machine C

B; drawn bolt is from machine B already done

𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴𝑖 )
𝑃(𝐴𝑖 /𝐵) = 𝑛
∑𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴𝑖 )

𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) =? ?

𝑃(𝐴1 ) = 0.25

𝑃(𝐴2 ) = 0.35

𝑃(𝐴3 ) = 0.40

𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ) = 0.05

𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 ) = 0.04

𝑃(𝐵/𝐴3 ) = 0.02

0.35 × 0.40
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) =
0.25 × 0.05 + 0.35 × 0.04 + 0.40 × 0.02
0.0140
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) = = 0.41
0.0345
 White Black Red
I 1 2 3
II 2 1 1
III 4 5 3

𝐴1 : be the event two balls drawn from Urn I

𝐴2 : be the event two balls drawn from Urn II

𝐴3 : be the event two balls drawn from Urn III

B: be the event the drawn ball is white & red already happen

𝑃(𝐴1 /𝐵) =? ?

1
𝑃(𝐴1 ) =
3
1
𝑃(𝐴2 ) =
3
1
𝑃(𝐴3 ) =
3

(11)(31)(20) 1
𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ) = =
(62) 5

(21)(11)(10) 1
𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 ) = =
(42) 3

(41)(31)(50) 2
𝑃(𝐵/𝐴3 ) = =
(12
2
) 11

1 1
𝑃(𝐴1 /𝐵) = 3×5 =
33
1 1 1 1 1 2 118
3 × 5 + 3 × 3 + 3 × 11

1st
2nd
𝐴1 be the event person hit the target

𝐴2 be the e event at person cannot hit the target

B; be the event the first person has shoot the target already

𝑃(𝐴1 /𝐵) =? ?

3
𝑃(𝐴1 ) =
5
2
𝑃(𝐴2 ) =
5
3
𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ) =
5
5
𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 ) =
9
 𝑃(𝐴2 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 )
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴1 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 ) + 𝑃(𝐴3 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴3 )

𝑃(𝐴1 ) =? ?, 𝑃(𝐴2 ) =? ?, 𝑃(𝐴3 ) =? ? , 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ), 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 ) =? ? , 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴3 ) =? ?

𝐴1 : be the event that the bolt is drawn from machine A

𝐴2 : be the event that the bolt is drawn from machine B

𝐴3 : be the event that the bolt is drawn from machine C

B: be the event the bolt is defective (already done)

1
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = ,
3
1
𝑃(𝐴2 ) = ,
3
1
𝑃(𝐴3 ) =
3

, 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ) = 0.05

𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 ) = 0.04,

𝑃(𝐵/𝐴3 ) = 0.02

𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴𝑖 )
𝑃(𝐴𝑖 /𝐵) = 𝑛
∑𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴𝑖 )

𝑃(𝐴2 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 )
𝑃(𝐴2 /𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴1 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 ). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 )

𝑃(𝐴1 ) =? ?

𝑃(𝐵/𝐴1 ) =? ?

𝑃(𝐴2 ) =? ?

𝑃(𝐵/𝐴2 ) =? ?