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4.1 Introduction to Probability

The document provides an introduction to probability, outlining three basic types: subjective, empirical, and theoretical probability, each defined by different estimation methods. It includes examples of events and their probabilities, such as flipping a coin and rolling a die, along with concepts like sample space and complementary events. Additionally, it discusses the use of tree diagrams to determine probabilities in various scenarios.

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10 views2 pages

4.1 Introduction to Probability

The document provides an introduction to probability, outlining three basic types: subjective, empirical, and theoretical probability, each defined by different estimation methods. It includes examples of events and their probabilities, such as flipping a coin and rolling a die, along with concepts like sample space and complementary events. Additionally, it discusses the use of tree diagrams to determine probabilities in various scenarios.

Uploaded by

dctutor2005
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Learning Goal: Introduction to Probability

3 Basic Types of Probability:


1. _____________________________________________________________________________________
Subjective Probability
- an estimate of likelihood based on intuition and experience
- example: “I think….”
Empirical (Experimental) Probability
2. _____________________________________________________________________________________
- an estimate of likelihood based on an experiment by the number of trials
- example: “ 3 out of 5 times I tried rolling a die is 2.”
3. _____________________________________________________________________________________
Theoretical Probability
- an estimate of likelihood based on analysis
- example: “There’s 50% chance of getting a head when flipping a coin.”

__________________________:
Outcomes possible results

__________________________:
Event an occurrence

Trial
__________________________: an examination/experiment

Sample Space
__________________________: all possible outcomes of an event

Notation: a number of elements of the event

PCA) =
Al, 0RPCA) -> 1

I number
of element of sample space
0 = #$%&''#()*; 1 = &--./' 100% &2 3ℎ* 3#$*

Example#1: Event: Flipping a coin Example#2: Event: Flipping a coin if both sides are head.

P(head) = P(head) = F = 1

O
P(tail) = t P(tail) = T = 0

Example#3:
Event: Rolling a die: P(1) = t P(4) = t

P(2) = t P(5) = t

P(3) = J P(6) = t

2
Example#4:
Event: Rolling a pair of standard dice to find the sum:

end
die
1 2 3 4 5 6 P(1) = P(evens) =
1st
die
- 58E
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 P(2) = ↓ P(odds) = ↓

2 36 2
3 4 5 6 7 8
P(3) = P(doubles) =
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 5: to 3=t
P(4) = P(prime) =
=T
7 9
=soIt
4 5 6 8 10
P(7) = P(composite) =
5 6 7 8 9 10 II E
6 789 10 11 12 P(not 7) =
E

P(A’)= Complement of event P(A)+P(A’)=1


A = event A doesn’t happen

P(A)+P(A’)=1
Example#5: Given the sample space {1,2,3,4,5,6,………50}
P(evens) = P(odds) = ↓
t
I

2
P(prime) = P(composite) =
92. 3. 5.7.11, 13,17.19.
23 29.31, 57, 41, 43, 473
== 34
P(perfect squares) = P(perfect cubes) =
F ⑤
P(not perfect P(not perfect
squares) = t cubes) =
47
5

Tree Diagram:
⑦Determine the probability of least
tossing at
2 tails with 3 coins.
·

1stcoin

my even as
E *i T(E)

TE) 3

(((*) (*) + ()" += = E


+ =

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