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Alco Beverage Industry - Systematix Conference

The alco-beverage industry is set for significant growth, particularly in the Prestige & Above (P&A) category, with companies focusing on premium products and expanding their capacity. Key players like Allied Blenders & Distilleries and Tilaknagar Industries are enhancing their market share and product offerings, with expectations of double-digit growth in the premium segment. Overall, the industry outlook is positive, driven by strategic initiatives and increasing demand for premium alcoholic beverages.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
66 views10 pages

Alco Beverage Industry - Systematix Conference

The alco-beverage industry is set for significant growth, particularly in the Prestige & Above (P&A) category, with companies focusing on premium products and expanding their capacity. Key players like Allied Blenders & Distilleries and Tilaknagar Industries are enhancing their market share and product offerings, with expectations of double-digit growth in the premium segment. Overall, the industry outlook is positive, driven by strategic initiatives and increasing demand for premium alcoholic beverages.
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Systematix

Institutional Equities

Alco Beverage 01 December 2024

Alcobev industry primed for robust growth led by growing share of


Prestige & Above category
CONFERENCE TAKEAWAYS We hosted an 'Alco Beverage' conference to learn about recent trends and the
sector's future prospects. Key takeaways: 1) The alco-bev players are now focusing
Industry Alcobev on the premium segment of the market, with all new launches coming under the
Prestige & Above (P&A) category. 2) The mass category is anticipated to grow at a
high single digit rate, the premium segment at low double digits, and the luxury
segment at high double digits. 3) Furthermore, the companies are expanding their
capacity and working on backward integration for ENA and bottling. 4) Both of the
foregoing strategies, offering P&A products and focusing on backward integration,
would help the players expand their margins. 5) The majority of alcohol beverage
companies are currently developing a product basket that includes numerous IMFL
categories such as whiskey, vodka, brandy, and gin. The development of a
comprehensive portfolio will aid in increasing brand visibility and entering new
markets.
Participating companies – 1) Allied Blenders & Distilleries, 2) Associated Alcohols &
Breweries, 3) Tilaknagar Industries & Spaceman Spirits, 4) SOM Distilleries &
Breweries, 5) Jimmy’s Cocktails, 6) Amber Distilleries.

Allied Blenders and Distilleries


Focus on P&A category

• The company's Officers Choice Whiskey is the industry leader in mass premium
whiskey.

• ABD aims to enhance its Prestige and Above (P&A) market share. P&A presently
accounts for approximately 40% of the business and aims to increase to over
50% during the next 2-3 years.
Initiatives in the premium segment

• Launched Iconiq white whiskey and Zoya gin.

• Partnered with Roust Corporation which is a Russian premium vodka brand and
holds 30% share in Russia’s premium vodka market for distribution in India.

• Going forward company expects its mass premium business to grow at high
single digit while the P&A business to see a double-digit growth.

Chetan Mahadik Exports markets


[email protected]
+91 22 6704 8091 • Out of the ~30-32 mn cases business of the company, company exports around 2
Rajesh Mudaliar mn cases.
[email protected]
+91 22 6704 8084 • Till March 2024 company used to export to 14 countries, now this number has
Vijay Jangir increased to 22 countries.
[email protected]
+91 22 6704 8029 • Hence the export number is expected to see strong double-digit growth ahead.

Investors are advised to refer disclosures made at the end of the research report.

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01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
Backward integration plans

• The company is planning to do a capex of Rs. 5.25 bn spread over three years.

• To further enhance its backwards integration capabilities, the company is


acquiring Minakshi Agro Industries in Maharashtra for Rs. 720 mn, which has
installed capacity of 11mn litres for manufacturing grain spirit.

• ABD will be expanding this capacity by 50mn litres with an additional capex of
Rs. 2.7 bn which shall be commissioned by FY26-27.

• It is planning to invest another Rs. 750 mn for setting up of 4 mn litre malt plant
with maturation to cater to new products in the premium to luxury category.
This shall be commissioned by 2027.

• It will also be setting up a 615mn per annum pet bottles facility with an
investment of Rs. 150 mn for southern market.

• Rest of the capex requirements are for setting up of the infra and maintenance
related investments.

• This Rs 5.25 bn capex will be spread over three years of which Rs. 1.85 bn will be
invested in 1st year, around Rs. 2.2 bn will be invested in 2nd year and around
Rs. 1.2 bn will be invested in 3rd year.

• Funding of capex will be done through the mix of internal accruals and debt.
Large benefits of the capex will flow from FY2027.
Margin outlook

• The company is currently at ~12% margin and expects this to touch ~15% in the
next 2-3 years.

• This margin expansion will be driven by higher share of P&A and backward
integration benefits.

Associated Alcohols & Breweries


Business segments

• Company is present across the entire value chain of liquor.

• It has its own IMFL brands in the economy, mid and premium categories.

• Company has exclusive license for bottling, branding and selling few Inbrew and
Diageo products in the market of Madhya Pradesh.

• Company also does contract manufacturing for 4 products of United Spirits.

• Moreover, company also produces its own ENA.


New initiatives

• Company has recently launched premium whiskey Hillfort. This is performing


exceptionally well with initial sales volumes exceeding expectations.

• In 3QFY24 company had launched premium Nicobar Gin.

• In 3QFY25 company is planning to launch a ready to drink product.

• While in 1QFY26 company plans to launch tequila.

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01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
State wise presence & expansion

• Company’s products are currently present in the markets of MP, Chhattisgarh,


Kerala, Delhi and West Bengal.

• Company plans to expand presence in Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Assam and


Pondicherry.
Capacity expansion

• The company has acquired land in UP and will start bottling and ENA plant there.
Capex for this is ~ Rs 900 mn.

• Moreover, the company’s malt plant is expected to be completed in Dec 2024.


ENA

• Company manufactures all the alcohol from its own ENA and the surplus ENA is
sold (Rs 1.5-2 bn annually).

• So now company’s objective is to utilize the entire ENA in its own value-added
products.
Outlook

• Company is guiding for a 15-20% growth CAGR.

• On margins, 1HFY25 margins were ~10%. And the new premium products are
generating operating margin of ~20% so once this business starts growing it shall
see margin expansion.

Tilaknagar Industries
Vision 2030

• Target - Brandy: Non Brandy Share of 80:20 from current 95:5.


Karnataka market excise issue

• Alco Bev industry had seen a decline in volumes in the state due to excise duty
hike in July 2023.

• Tilaknagar Industries had seen some impact on sales. For instance, the price of
Mansion House base brandy had increased from Rs 220 to Rs 257 which
impacted sales. However now the Government has reduced the excise duty and
the product price has come down to Rs 235.

• Hence now in the months of September and October 2024 the primary sales are
witnessing growth.
Telangana issue

• Company expects to receive all the overdue from the state by end of March
2025.

• Company’s outstanding receivables from the state are currently ~ Rs 1.3 bn of


which ~Rs 800 mn are overdue from the state.

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01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
Privatization in Andhra Pradesh

• Privatization implementation is in progress and shall be completed in next


couple of months post which operations shall be smooth.

• Tilaknagar’s 30% volumes come from the state of AP.

• Company expects to grow at the industry growth rate of 15% in the state of AP
going ahead.
Portfolio of products

• Company is in the process of creating a portfolio of products to enter the Non


South markets.

• Recently launched mid premium whiskey in Assam which has received healthy
traction.
Net Debt free status

• During 2QFY25, company achieved net debt free status, net cash at Rs 250 mn.

• Debt reduction led to company achieving net debt free status ahead of its
guidance (had earlier guided to get net debt free by end of FY25).
Outlook

• Management guides for volume growth CAGR of 12-13%, revenue growth CAGR
of 15-16%.

• EBITDA margin to expand to 16% over the next 2-3 years led by premiumization
and cost control initiatives.

Spaceman Spirits
• Tilaknagar Industries will be holding 20% stake in Spaceman Spirits.

• It has signed a usership agreement, where in the products will be sold under
Tilaknagar’s name and Tilaknagar will pay royalty to Spaceman.

• Product portfolio of Spaceman includes Samara Gin and Sitara rum and company
is in the process of launching Amara Vodka and has a strong portfolio expansion
strategy in place.

• Spaceman Spirits is already present in the states of Haryana, Delhi, Maharashtra,


Goa and Karnataka.

• The usership agreement with Tilaknagar Industries will help the brand to expand
in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala and states where Tilaknagar
Industries has presence.

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01 December 2024 Alco Beverages

Som Distilleries & Breweries


Product Portfolio

• The company has 3 beer brands – namely Hunter, Black Fort and Power Cool.

• Company has also launched 2 more brands – Legends (mass) and Woodpecker
(premium).

• 90-92% of the business is beer; ~95% of the business caters to the mass
segment.
State wise presence

• Currently 35% of revenue comes from MP, 30% comes from Karnataka, 15-20%
comes from Orissa and remaining comes from the states of Delhi, UP, Rajasthan,
Jharkhand and Kerala.
Indian beer industry

• Indian beer industry size is ~360 mn cases, out of this the addressable market for
SOM is ~250 mn cases according to its state presence.

• In FY25 company is on an annual run rate of doing ~27 mn cases in volumes,


have already sold around ~13 mn cases in 1HFY25.

• The market share of SOM in the overall beer market is ~7% while in its market
share in the addressable market is 10%. Company is targeting for ~14% market
share in its addressable market.

• SOM is the 4th largest beer player in India after United Breweries, AB InBev and
Carlsberg.
Capacity

• Company has a capacity of 350 mn cases with 3 capacities in MP, Orissa and
Karnataka. By end of FY25 this capacity is expected to reach to 380 mn cases.
This will be due to addition of capacity in the state of Orissa.

• Company is in process of acquiring breweries in states where it currently has


negligible presence.
Guidance

• Company expects to grow its volumes at around +20% CAGR led by new
launches and expanding in states where it has low presence.

• Margins are expected to remain at around current level of ~12-12.5% as the


operating expenses will see a jump due to new launches and state wise
expansion.

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01 December 2024 Alco Beverages

Jimmy’s Cocktails
Product portfolio
• Jimmy’s Cocktails offers premium non-alcoholic cocktail mixers.
• Its cocktail mixer is available in around 9 types with 80 SKUs.
• Company completed 3 years in September 2024 and has recently launched
lemonade mix and Hustle X hydration drinks.
• Company sells products in the price range of Rs 40 - Rs120 and believes there is
enough opportunity to grow in this range.
Facilities
• The company has exclusive facility in Nashik and has 3rd party facilities in
Palghar and Bhiwandi.
Channel mix
• On channel mix, company generates 35% of revenue from Quick commerce and
rest 65% of revenue is coming from retail outlets majorly modern trade.
Financials & Outlook
• In FY24 company made revenue of Rs 300 mn, in FY25 company expects to touch
Rs 500 mn and expects Rs1 bn revenue by FY26.
• On margin front, Gross margin is in the range 50-70%. On the profitability front,
the company still makes loss on EBITDA level (-15% operating margin) due to
higher A&P spends.
Amber Distilleries
Operations
• Began operations in 1974 with a country liquor license, operating independently
without partnerships.
• Initially started with whisky (Passport Whisky in 1981) and rum.
• Currently, whisky contributes 70% of the company’s revenue.
• Acts as a contract manufacturer for brands like Rock Paper Rum, Prestige
Alcobev (25,000 cases), and Good Barrel.
• Clients provide raw materials and packaging; the company handles production
and logistics.
• VAT duty is 40%, with a license fee of Rs 25.41 per case (9 liters).
• Charges brands Rs 90 per case, depending on packaging, bottle type, and
labeling.
Exports
• Started exporting from India in 2006.
• Exports all products to Africa.
• Plans to export 90ml bottles to Rwanda.
• Applied for approval to produce malt spirit, expected to receive approval in the
next 3 months.

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01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
Products

• Developed Salute Whisky in 1984, producing 10,000 cases, exclusively


dispatched to Delhi.

• Does not use artificial flavors in any of its products.

• Sells Kuban to the Border Security Force (BSF).

• Annual production capacity of 2 million cases.

• Last year, produced 2.68 lakh cases.


Plants

• The production facility is located in Palghar district, covering 2.5 acres for the
liquor unit and a quarter-acre for other operations.

• Equipped with 5 bottling lines.

• Current capacity utilization is between 10-13%.


Alco Bev – Peer comparison
Market
PE (x) ROE (%) FY24-FY27E CAGR (%)
Cap.
Companies
Rs bn FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E Revenue EBITDA PAT

Tilaknagar Industries 80 55.9 41.4 42.9 36.1 24.8 25.6 19.9 19.7 14.1% 20.0% 15.7%

United Spirits* 1,112 76.1 73.9 62.7 54.7 21.5 20.8 21.5 22.1 9.2% 12.6% 14.2%

United Breweries* 516 125.8 85.5 59.9 46.7 10.1 13.7 17.8 20.1 12.0% 31.7% 37.5%

Radico Khaitan* 329 124.0 86.2 64.0 50.1 11.3 11.8 13.1 14.3 13.7% 25.3% 38.2%

Sula Vineyards* 37 39.2 44.1 36.5 30.0 17.2 14.7 16.8 18.9 10.8% 8.6% 9.2%
Allied Blenders &
94 NA 57.6 40.0 32.0 NA 16.7 14.9 17.2 9.3% 28.8% 146.4%
Distillers*
Associated Alcohols
18 31.6 NA NA NA 12.9 NA NA NA NA NA NA
& Breweries*
Som Distilleries &
20 20.4 NA NA NA 18.4 NA NA NA NA NA NA
Breweries*
Source: Company, Systematix Institutional Research, * Bloomberg Estimates

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01 December 2024 Alco Beverages

Institutional Equities Team


Nikhil Khandelwal Managing Director +91-22-6704 8001 [email protected]
Equity Research
Analysts Industry Sectors Desk-Phone E-mail
Dhananjay Sinha Co Head of Equities & Head of Research - Strategy & Economics +91-22-6704 8095 [email protected]
Abhishek Mathur Consumer Staples +91-22-6704 8059 [email protected]
Ashish Poddar Consumer Durables, EMS, Building Materials, Small-Mid Caps +91-22-6704 8039 [email protected]
Chetan Mahadik Consumer Discretionary +91-22-6704 8091 [email protected]
Manjith Nair Banking, Insurance +91-22-6704 8065 [email protected]
Pradeep Agrawal NBFCs & Diversified Financials +91-22-6704 8024 [email protected]
Pratik Tholiya Specialty & Agro Chem, Fertilisers, Sugar, Textiles and Select Midcaps +91-22-6704 8028 [email protected]
Shweta Dikshit Metals & Mining +91-22-6704 8042 [email protected]
Sudeep Anand Oil & Gas, Logistics, Cement, Wagons +91-22-6704 8085 [email protected]
Vishal Manchanda Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare +91-22-6704 8064 [email protected]
Deeksha Bhardwaj Strategy & Economics +91-22-6704 8017 [email protected]
Devanshi Kamdar IT & ITES +91-22-6704 8098 [email protected]
Hinal Kothari Metals & Mining +91-22-6704 8076 [email protected]
Jennisa Popat Oil & Gas, Logistics, Cement, Wagons +91-22-6704 8066 [email protected]
Krisha Zaveri Consumer Durables, EMS, Building Materials, Small-Mid Caps +91-22-6704 8023 [email protected]
Mahek Shah Consumer Durables, EMS, Building Materials, Small-Mid Caps +91-22-6704 8040 [email protected]
Nirali Chheda Banking, Insurance +91-22-6704 8019 [email protected]
Pashmi Chheda Banking, Insurance +91-22-6704 8063 [email protected]
Pravin Mule NBFCs & Diversified Financials +91-22-6704 8034 [email protected]
Pratik Oza Midcaps +91-22-6704 8038 [email protected]
Prathmesh Kamath Oil & Gas, Logistics, Cement, Wagons +91-22-6704 8022 [email protected]
Purvi Mundhra Macro-Strategy +91-22-6704 8078 [email protected]
Rajesh Mudaliar Consumer Staples & Discretionary +91-22-6704 8084 [email protected]
Rushank Mody Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare +91-22-6704 8046 [email protected]
Swati Saboo Midcaps +91-22-6704 8043 [email protected]
Vijay Jangir FMCG +91-22-6704 8029 [email protected]
Vamsi Hota Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare +91-22-6704 8099 [email protected]
Yash Mehta NBFCs & Diversified Financials +91-22-6704 8036 [email protected]
Yogeeta Rathod Midcaps +91-22-6704 8081 [email protected]
Equity Sales & Trading
Name Desk-Phone E-mail
Vipul Sanghvi Co Head of Equities & Head of Sales +91-22-6704 8062 [email protected]
Sidharth Agrawal Sales +91-22-6704 8090 [email protected]
Shreya Chaudhary Sales +91-22-6704 8033 [email protected]
Rahul Khandelwal Sales +91-22-6704 8003 [email protected]
Abhinav Barjatiya Sales +91-22-6704 8068 [email protected]
Chintan Shah Sales +91-22-6704 8061 [email protected]
Pawan Sharma Director and Head - Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8067 [email protected]
Mukesh Chaturvedi Vice President and Co Head - Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8074 [email protected]
Vinod Bhuwad Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8051 [email protected]
Rashmi Solanki Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8097 [email protected]
Karan Damani Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8053 [email protected]
Vipul Chheda Dealer +91-22-6704 8087 [email protected]
Paras Shah Dealer +91-22-6704 8047 [email protected]
Rahul Singh Dealer +91-22-6704 8054 [email protected]
Niraj Singh Dealer +91-22-6704 8096 [email protected]
Corporate Access
Mrunal Pawar Vice President & Head Corporate Access +91-22-6704 8088 [email protected]
Darsha Hiwrale Associate Corporate Access +91-22-6704 8083 [email protected]
Production
Madhu Narayanan Editor +91-22-6704 8071 [email protected]
Mrunali Pagdhare Production +91-22-6704 8057 [email protected]
Vijayendra Achrekar Production +91-22-6704 8089 [email protected]
Operations
Sachin Malusare Vice President +91-22-6704 8055 [email protected]
Jignesh Mistry Manager +91-22-6704 8049 [email protected]
Hiren Patel Assistant Manager +91-22-6704 8056 [email protected]

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01 December 2024 Alco Beverages

DISCLOSURES/APPENDIX

I. ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I, Rajesh Mudaliar, Chetan Mahadik, Vijay Jangir; hereby certify that (1) views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my/our personal views about any or all of the subject
securities or issuers referred to in this research report, (2) no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed in this research report by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited (SSSIL) or its group/associate companies, (3) reasonable care is taken to achieve and maintain
independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.

Disclosure of Interest Statement Update


Analyst holding in the stock No
Served as an officer, director or employee No

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month immediately preceding the distribution of the research report.

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services from the company(ies) covered in this report in the past twelve months.
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twelve months.
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report.

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8. The research analyst and SSSIL have not been engaged in market making activity for the company(ies) covered in this research report.

9. Details of SSSIL, research analyst and its associates pertaining to the companies covered in this research report:

Sr. Yes /
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4 No
previous twelve months.
Whether research analyst, SSSIL or associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or any other
5 No
products or services from the company(ies) covered in the research report in the last twelve months.

10. There is no material disciplinary action taken by any regulatory authority that impacts the equity research analysis activities.

STOCK RATINGS
BUY (B): The stock's total return is expected to exceed 15% over the next 12 months.
HOLD (H): The stock's total return is expected to be within -15% to +15% over the next 12 months.
SELL (S): The stock's total return is expected to give negative returns of more than 15% over the next 12 months.
NOT RATED (NR): The analyst has no recommendation on the stock under review.

INDUSTRY VIEWS
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CAUTIOUS (CS): Fundamentals/valuations of the sector are expected to deteriorate over the next 12-18 months.

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01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
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SSSIL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness,
merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SSSIL, any of its affiliates or any third
party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of
third parties. The report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to website material of the company, the
company has not reviewed the linked site. Accessing such website or following such link through the report or the website of the company shall be at your own risk and the company
shall have no liability arising out of, or in connection with, any such referenced website.
SSSIL will not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall SSSIL be liable for
any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SSSIL
through this presentation.

SSSIL or any of its other group companies or associates will not be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their investment
and tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.

Registration granted by SEBI to SSSIL and certification from NISM to the analyst in no way guarantee performance of SSSIL or to provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited:


Registered and Corporate address: The Capital, A-wing, No. 603 – 606, 6th Floor, Plot No. C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051
Tel no. 022-66198000/40358000 Fax no. 022-66198029/40358029 Email id [email protected]. Visit us at: www.systematixgroup.in
Details of Compliance officer: Ms Nipa Savla, Compliance officer Tel no. 022-66198092/4035808092 Email id [email protected]
Details of Email id grievance redressal cell : [email protected]
Details of Registration : CIN - U65993MH1995PLC268414 | BSE SEBI Reg. No.: INZ000171134 (Member Code: 182) | NSE SEBI Reg. No.: INZ000171134 (Member Code: 11327) | MCX SEBI
Reg. No.: INZ000171134 (Member Code: 56625) | NCDEX SEBI Reg. No.: INZ000171134 (Member Code: 1281) | Depository Participant SEBI Reg. No.: IN-DP-480-2020 (DP Id: 12034600) |
PMS SEBI Reg. No.: INP000002692 | Research Analyst SEBI Reg. No.: INH200000840 | AMFI : ARN - 64917

Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 10

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