Alco Beverage Industry - Systematix Conference
Alco Beverage Industry - Systematix Conference
Institutional Equities
• The company's Officers Choice Whiskey is the industry leader in mass premium
whiskey.
• ABD aims to enhance its Prestige and Above (P&A) market share. P&A presently
accounts for approximately 40% of the business and aims to increase to over
50% during the next 2-3 years.
Initiatives in the premium segment
• Partnered with Roust Corporation which is a Russian premium vodka brand and
holds 30% share in Russia’s premium vodka market for distribution in India.
• Going forward company expects its mass premium business to grow at high
single digit while the P&A business to see a double-digit growth.
Investors are advised to refer disclosures made at the end of the research report.
Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 1
01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
Backward integration plans
• The company is planning to do a capex of Rs. 5.25 bn spread over three years.
• ABD will be expanding this capacity by 50mn litres with an additional capex of
Rs. 2.7 bn which shall be commissioned by FY26-27.
• It is planning to invest another Rs. 750 mn for setting up of 4 mn litre malt plant
with maturation to cater to new products in the premium to luxury category.
This shall be commissioned by 2027.
• It will also be setting up a 615mn per annum pet bottles facility with an
investment of Rs. 150 mn for southern market.
• Rest of the capex requirements are for setting up of the infra and maintenance
related investments.
• This Rs 5.25 bn capex will be spread over three years of which Rs. 1.85 bn will be
invested in 1st year, around Rs. 2.2 bn will be invested in 2nd year and around
Rs. 1.2 bn will be invested in 3rd year.
• Funding of capex will be done through the mix of internal accruals and debt.
Large benefits of the capex will flow from FY2027.
Margin outlook
• The company is currently at ~12% margin and expects this to touch ~15% in the
next 2-3 years.
• This margin expansion will be driven by higher share of P&A and backward
integration benefits.
• It has its own IMFL brands in the economy, mid and premium categories.
• Company has exclusive license for bottling, branding and selling few Inbrew and
Diageo products in the market of Madhya Pradesh.
Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 2
01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
State wise presence & expansion
• The company has acquired land in UP and will start bottling and ENA plant there.
Capex for this is ~ Rs 900 mn.
• Company manufactures all the alcohol from its own ENA and the surplus ENA is
sold (Rs 1.5-2 bn annually).
• So now company’s objective is to utilize the entire ENA in its own value-added
products.
Outlook
• On margins, 1HFY25 margins were ~10%. And the new premium products are
generating operating margin of ~20% so once this business starts growing it shall
see margin expansion.
Tilaknagar Industries
Vision 2030
• Alco Bev industry had seen a decline in volumes in the state due to excise duty
hike in July 2023.
• Tilaknagar Industries had seen some impact on sales. For instance, the price of
Mansion House base brandy had increased from Rs 220 to Rs 257 which
impacted sales. However now the Government has reduced the excise duty and
the product price has come down to Rs 235.
• Hence now in the months of September and October 2024 the primary sales are
witnessing growth.
Telangana issue
• Company expects to receive all the overdue from the state by end of March
2025.
Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 3
01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
Privatization in Andhra Pradesh
• Company expects to grow at the industry growth rate of 15% in the state of AP
going ahead.
Portfolio of products
• Recently launched mid premium whiskey in Assam which has received healthy
traction.
Net Debt free status
• During 2QFY25, company achieved net debt free status, net cash at Rs 250 mn.
• Debt reduction led to company achieving net debt free status ahead of its
guidance (had earlier guided to get net debt free by end of FY25).
Outlook
• Management guides for volume growth CAGR of 12-13%, revenue growth CAGR
of 15-16%.
• EBITDA margin to expand to 16% over the next 2-3 years led by premiumization
and cost control initiatives.
Spaceman Spirits
• Tilaknagar Industries will be holding 20% stake in Spaceman Spirits.
• It has signed a usership agreement, where in the products will be sold under
Tilaknagar’s name and Tilaknagar will pay royalty to Spaceman.
• Product portfolio of Spaceman includes Samara Gin and Sitara rum and company
is in the process of launching Amara Vodka and has a strong portfolio expansion
strategy in place.
• The usership agreement with Tilaknagar Industries will help the brand to expand
in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala and states where Tilaknagar
Industries has presence.
Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 4
01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
• The company has 3 beer brands – namely Hunter, Black Fort and Power Cool.
• Company has also launched 2 more brands – Legends (mass) and Woodpecker
(premium).
• 90-92% of the business is beer; ~95% of the business caters to the mass
segment.
State wise presence
• Currently 35% of revenue comes from MP, 30% comes from Karnataka, 15-20%
comes from Orissa and remaining comes from the states of Delhi, UP, Rajasthan,
Jharkhand and Kerala.
Indian beer industry
• Indian beer industry size is ~360 mn cases, out of this the addressable market for
SOM is ~250 mn cases according to its state presence.
• The market share of SOM in the overall beer market is ~7% while in its market
share in the addressable market is 10%. Company is targeting for ~14% market
share in its addressable market.
• SOM is the 4th largest beer player in India after United Breweries, AB InBev and
Carlsberg.
Capacity
• Company has a capacity of 350 mn cases with 3 capacities in MP, Orissa and
Karnataka. By end of FY25 this capacity is expected to reach to 380 mn cases.
This will be due to addition of capacity in the state of Orissa.
• Company expects to grow its volumes at around +20% CAGR led by new
launches and expanding in states where it has low presence.
Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 5
01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
Jimmy’s Cocktails
Product portfolio
• Jimmy’s Cocktails offers premium non-alcoholic cocktail mixers.
• Its cocktail mixer is available in around 9 types with 80 SKUs.
• Company completed 3 years in September 2024 and has recently launched
lemonade mix and Hustle X hydration drinks.
• Company sells products in the price range of Rs 40 - Rs120 and believes there is
enough opportunity to grow in this range.
Facilities
• The company has exclusive facility in Nashik and has 3rd party facilities in
Palghar and Bhiwandi.
Channel mix
• On channel mix, company generates 35% of revenue from Quick commerce and
rest 65% of revenue is coming from retail outlets majorly modern trade.
Financials & Outlook
• In FY24 company made revenue of Rs 300 mn, in FY25 company expects to touch
Rs 500 mn and expects Rs1 bn revenue by FY26.
• On margin front, Gross margin is in the range 50-70%. On the profitability front,
the company still makes loss on EBITDA level (-15% operating margin) due to
higher A&P spends.
Amber Distilleries
Operations
• Began operations in 1974 with a country liquor license, operating independently
without partnerships.
• Initially started with whisky (Passport Whisky in 1981) and rum.
• Currently, whisky contributes 70% of the company’s revenue.
• Acts as a contract manufacturer for brands like Rock Paper Rum, Prestige
Alcobev (25,000 cases), and Good Barrel.
• Clients provide raw materials and packaging; the company handles production
and logistics.
• VAT duty is 40%, with a license fee of Rs 25.41 per case (9 liters).
• Charges brands Rs 90 per case, depending on packaging, bottle type, and
labeling.
Exports
• Started exporting from India in 2006.
• Exports all products to Africa.
• Plans to export 90ml bottles to Rwanda.
• Applied for approval to produce malt spirit, expected to receive approval in the
next 3 months.
Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 6
01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
Products
• The production facility is located in Palghar district, covering 2.5 acres for the
liquor unit and a quarter-acre for other operations.
Tilaknagar Industries 80 55.9 41.4 42.9 36.1 24.8 25.6 19.9 19.7 14.1% 20.0% 15.7%
United Spirits* 1,112 76.1 73.9 62.7 54.7 21.5 20.8 21.5 22.1 9.2% 12.6% 14.2%
United Breweries* 516 125.8 85.5 59.9 46.7 10.1 13.7 17.8 20.1 12.0% 31.7% 37.5%
Radico Khaitan* 329 124.0 86.2 64.0 50.1 11.3 11.8 13.1 14.3 13.7% 25.3% 38.2%
Sula Vineyards* 37 39.2 44.1 36.5 30.0 17.2 14.7 16.8 18.9 10.8% 8.6% 9.2%
Allied Blenders &
94 NA 57.6 40.0 32.0 NA 16.7 14.9 17.2 9.3% 28.8% 146.4%
Distillers*
Associated Alcohols
18 31.6 NA NA NA 12.9 NA NA NA NA NA NA
& Breweries*
Som Distilleries &
20 20.4 NA NA NA 18.4 NA NA NA NA NA NA
Breweries*
Source: Company, Systematix Institutional Research, * Bloomberg Estimates
Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 7
01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 8
01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
DISCLOSURES/APPENDIX
I. ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I, Rajesh Mudaliar, Chetan Mahadik, Vijay Jangir; hereby certify that (1) views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my/our personal views about any or all of the subject
securities or issuers referred to in this research report, (2) no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed in this research report by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited (SSSIL) or its group/associate companies, (3) reasonable care is taken to achieve and maintain
independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.
I. ISSUER SPECIFIC REGULATORY DISCLOSURES, unless specifically mentioned in point no. 9 below:
1. The research analyst(s), SSSIL, associates or relatives do not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered in this report.
2. The research analyst(s), SSSIL, associates or relatives collectively do not hold more than 1% of the securities of the company(ies) covered in this report as of the end of the
month immediately preceding the distribution of the research report.
3. The research analyst(s), SSSIL, associates or relatives did not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report.
4. The research analyst, SSSIL and its associates have not received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or any other products or
services from the company(ies) covered in this report in the past twelve months.
5. The research analyst, SSSIL or its associates have not managed or co-managed a private or public offering of securities for the company(ies) covered in this report in the previous
twelve months.
6. SSSIL or its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the company(ies) covered in this report or from any third party in connection with this research
report.
7. The research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the company(ies) covered in this research report.
8. The research analyst and SSSIL have not been engaged in market making activity for the company(ies) covered in this research report.
9. Details of SSSIL, research analyst and its associates pertaining to the companies covered in this research report:
Sr. Yes /
Particulars
No. No.
1 Whether compensation was received from the company(ies) covered in the research report in the past 12 months for investment banking transaction by SSSIL. No
2 Whether research analyst, SSSIL or its associates and relatives collectively hold more than 1% of the company(ies) covered in the research report. No
3 Whether compensation has been received by SSSIL or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the research report. No
Whether SSSIL or its affiliates have managed or co-managed a private or public offering of securities for the company(ies) covered in the research report in the
4 No
previous twelve months.
Whether research analyst, SSSIL or associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or any other
5 No
products or services from the company(ies) covered in the research report in the last twelve months.
10. There is no material disciplinary action taken by any regulatory authority that impacts the equity research analysis activities.
STOCK RATINGS
BUY (B): The stock's total return is expected to exceed 15% over the next 12 months.
HOLD (H): The stock's total return is expected to be within -15% to +15% over the next 12 months.
SELL (S): The stock's total return is expected to give negative returns of more than 15% over the next 12 months.
NOT RATED (NR): The analyst has no recommendation on the stock under review.
INDUSTRY VIEWS
ATTRACTIVE (AT): Fundamentals/valuations of the sector are expected to be attractive over the next 12-18 months.
NEUTRAL (NL): Fundamentals/valuations of the sector are expected to neither improve nor deteriorate over the next 12-18 months.
CAUTIOUS (CS): Fundamentals/valuations of the sector are expected to deteriorate over the next 12-18 months.
II. DISCLAIMER
The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based on the information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information
has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy completeness or correctness.
This document is for information purposes only. This report is based on information that we consider reliable; we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and one should exercise
due caution while acting on it. Description of any company(ies) or its/their securities mentioned herein are not complete and this document is not and should not be construed as an
offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance, future returns are not guaranteed and
a loss of original capital may occur. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as on the date of the report and these, plus any other information
contained in the report, are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments are also subject to change without notice. This report is intended for
distribution to institutional investors.
This report is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any
locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject to SSSIL or
its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, especially USA, the same
may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United States (to U.S. persons), Canada, or
Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. Any unauthorized use, duplication,
Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 9
01 December 2024 Alco Beverages
redistribution or disclosure of this report including, but not limited to, redistribution by electronic mail, posting of the report on a website or page, and/or providing to a third party a link,
is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the report is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any
third party.
SSSIL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any
companies that the analysts cover. Additionally, SSSIL generally prohibits its analysts and persons reporting to analysts from serving as an officer, director, or advisory board member of
any companies that they cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that
reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the
recommendations expressed herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues and no part of the
compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The
compensation of the analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by SSSIL; however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of
which investment banking, sales and trading are a part. Research analysts and sales persons of SSSIL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations which could have an adverse effect on their value or price or the income
derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies, effectively assume currency risk. SSSIL, its directors, analysts
or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on the basis of this report
including but not restricted to fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
SSSIL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees subject to the information given in the disclosures may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the
securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest)
or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential material
conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the company may or may not subscribe
to the views expressed therein.
SSSIL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness,
merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SSSIL, any of its affiliates or any third
party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of
third parties. The report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to website material of the company, the
company has not reviewed the linked site. Accessing such website or following such link through the report or the website of the company shall be at your own risk and the company
shall have no liability arising out of, or in connection with, any such referenced website.
SSSIL will not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall SSSIL be liable for
any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SSSIL
through this presentation.
SSSIL or any of its other group companies or associates will not be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their investment
and tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.
Registration granted by SEBI to SSSIL and certification from NISM to the analyst in no way guarantee performance of SSSIL or to provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 10