Learning Guide Module

Subject Code (Stat1) Statistics 1

Module Code 16.0 Probability – Part 2
Lesson Code 16.2 Multiplication Rule of Probability
Time Limit 30 mins.

TARGET

After completing this lesson, the student is expected to:

▪ Illustrate in a Venn diagram the multiplication rule of two statistical events; and
▪ Compute problems involving multiplication rule and conditional rule of probability.
▪

HOOK

There are many real-life occurrences that show two events occurring simultaneously at the same
time. An example is a patient who is a smoker and is diagnosed with lung cancer. Here, two events -
“being a smoker” and “being diagnosed with lung cancer” - can be acquired by a patient at the same time.
Here is another example. A study is done on male respondents an whether their place of residence
is related to their marital status. The results are tabulated in a contingency table (recall LG 8):
Divorced Married Total
Urban 20 12 32
Rural 5 13 18

Total 25 25 50

Since there are 2 sub-categories for each category, then we can deduce 4 joint events, namely:
divorced and from urban, divorced and from rural, married and from urban, and married and from rural.
One of these 4 joint events can happen to a particular male respondent. In this example, one might be
interested in the question: What is the probability that a male respondent is divorced and coming from an
urban area? To answer that, let us have first a discussion on the formula for the probability of a joint event.

IGNITE

Let is consider the joint event “a male respondent is divorced and is coming from an urban area”.
Based on the table, if we randomly select a male respondent, the probability that he is divorced and from
urban is:
𝑃(divorced 𝑎𝑛𝑑 from urban) = 20/50 ,
since there are only 20 male respondents of this description out of 50. We can rewrite the equation as

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 20 32 20
𝑃(divorced 𝑎𝑛𝑑 from urban) = = ( ) ( ).
50 50 32
Note that
32
𝑃(from urban) =
50
20
But what is 32? Well, the numerator corresponds to all the divorced males from urban locations, while the
20
denominator consists of all the males from urban locations. So you can think of 32
as the probability of
selecting a divorced male, if the sample space only consists of males from urban areas. This is a special
case called a conditional probability, which is the chance of an event occurring, given that another has
20
occurred or is true. In this case, 32 is the probability of selecting a divorced male, given that he is from an
urban setting. In symbol, the conditional probability of 𝑨 given 𝑩 is given by 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵). To find the
probability of the event 𝐴 given the event 𝐵 has occurred, we restrict our attention to the outcomes in 𝐵.
We then find in what fraction of those outcomes also occurred in 𝐴. To illustrate in a Venn diagram, we
have:

𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =

That is
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)

Going back, the probability of selecting a divorced male from an urban setting is given by:
𝑃(divorced and from urban) = 𝑃(he is from urban) × 𝑃(divorced male given he is from urban).
The above example gives us the idea that the probability of a joint event is equivalent to the
product of the probability of the first event and the probability of the second event given the occurrence
of the first event. This is an example of the general multiplication rule, which states that the probability
of two events, 𝐴 and 𝐵 is the probability that event 𝐵 occurs multiplied by the probability that event 𝐴
occurs given that event 𝐵 has occurred. That is,
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵).

Example 1:
If you roll two six-sided dice, the chance of getting a six on both dice is 1/36, since there are 36
possible outcomes and only one of which correspond to having two 6s. Meanwhile, the chance that one
six-sided die turns up a 6 is 1/6. Notice though,
1 1 1
= ( ) ( ) = (probability of a 6 on first die) × (probability of a 6 on second die).
36 6 6
Is this just coincidence? Well, technically, the second 1/6 can be thought of as the chance of

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getting a 6 in the second die, given the first die is a 6. However, that sounds a bit absurd, because regardless
of what the outcome of the first die is, the chance of getting a six in the second die stays the same. In
general, if you roll 𝑛 identical dice, the probability of getting 𝑛 6s is (1/6)𝑛 . The occurrence of a 6 in the
first die will not affect in the occurrence of a 6 in all of the other dice. This implies independence of the
occurrence of a 6 in the two dice.
In general, events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are said to be independent of each other if they don’t affect each
other’s likelihood, thus 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) and 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵), and 𝑃(𝐴 and 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵).

Example 2: (Titanic Survival Analysis)

Recall the data on Titanic survival analysis represented in the contingency table below. In module
8.0, we discussed that the ticket class explains the survival status of a passenger.
Distribution of passengers according to ticket class and survival status

Passenger Class

Survival 1st 2nd 3rd Total

no 122 167 528 817
yes 203 118 178 499

Total 325 285 706 1316

Some interesting questions are:

a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen passenger is a survivor and a third class
passenger?
b) What is the probability that a randomly chosen passenger is a survivor given that he/she is a
first class passenger?
c) Are the events ‘being on the second class’ and ‘surviving’ independent?

Solution:
706 178 178
a) 𝑃(survivor 𝑎𝑛𝑑 3rd class) = 𝑃(3rd class) ⋅ 𝑃(survivor|3rd class) = (1316) (706) = 1316

There is a 13.5% chance that a randomly chosen passenger is a survivor and a third class
passenger.

𝑃(survivor 𝑎𝑛𝑑 1st class) 203/1316 203

b) 𝑃(survivor|1st class) = 𝑃(1st class)
= 325/1316 = 325

There is a 62.5% chance that in a first class group of passengers, a randomly chosen passenger
is a survivor. Another technique in computing the conditional probability in (b) is by looking
at the fraction of survivors in the first class group only, that is, 203 out of 325.

c) There are several ways to check whether the two variables are independent, two of them are
shown below:

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 i. We check whether the probability of selecting a passenger from the second class given
that he/she is survived is the same as the probability of selecting a passenger from the
second class. In symbol,
118 285
𝑃(2𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 | 𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑) = ≈ 0.236 While 𝑃(2𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠) = ≈ 0.217
499 1316

Since the two are different, then the two events are NOT independent.

ii. Similarly, we can check if the product of the probability if selecting a passenger from
second class, and the probability of selecting a survivor is the same as the probability of
finding a passenger who survived and is from the 2nd class
285 499
𝑃(2𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠) = 1316, while 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑) = 1316, taking the product
𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑) ∙ 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑) ≈ 0.821
118
Meanwhile, 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 2𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠) = 1316 ≈ 0.897

Since 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑) ∙ 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑) ≠ 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 2𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠), then we say
that the two events are NOT independent.

NAVIGATE

The data below pertains to the basic information of the 100 bank clients regarding their smoking
status and exercise status. This is a graded exercise.
Smoking status
does not <1 pack one pack
Exercise Total
smoke per day per day
heavy 7 2 2 11
moderate 8 3 2 13
light 15 18 5 38
none 17 14 7 38
Total 47 37 16 100

If we randomly select one bank client, answer the following questions:

1. 𝑃(smoke one pack per day )
2. 𝑃(exercise moderately)
3. 𝑃(exercise lightly and smoke < 1 per day)
4. 𝑃(exercise heavily|smoke 1 pack per day)

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 KNOT

In summary, using multiplication rule of probability requires first the understanding in the nature
of the events, which is if two events can occur simultaneously at the same time. The occurrence of one
event might have dependence on the occurrence of the second event; otherwise, we say that the two events
are independent. Thus, for any events 𝐴 and 𝐵, the probability of the joint event 𝐴 and 𝐵 is given by
𝑃(𝐴 and 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵|𝐴). Moreover, if events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are assumed to be independent, then
𝑃(𝐴 and 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵).

References:
De Veaux, R.D., Velleman, P.F., & Bock, D.E. (2012). Stats: Data and models. Pearson Education:
Boston.
Walpole, R. E., Myers, R. H., Myers, S. L., & Ye, K. (2017). Probability & statistics for engineers &
scientists.

Prepared by: ARVIN PAUL B. SUMOBAY Reviewed by: JOSEPH S. TABADERO

Position: SST IV Position: SST IV
Campus: PSHS - CMC Campus: PSHS - CARC

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