Mark Scheme (Results)

Summer 2022

Pearson Edexcel GCE

A Level Further Mathematics (9FM0)
Paper 3B -Further Statistics 1
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Summer 2022
Question Paper Log Number P69194A*
Publications Code 9FM0_3B_2206_MS*
All the material in this publication is copyright
© Pearson Education Ltd 2022
General Marking Guidance

• All candidates must receive the same treatment. Examiners must

mark the first candidate in exactly the same way as they mark the
last.
• Mark schemes should be applied positively. Candidates must be
rewarded for what they have shown they can do rather than
penalised for omissions.
• Examiners should mark according to the mark scheme not
according to their perception of where the grade boundaries may
lie.
• There is no ceiling on achievement. All marks on the mark scheme
should be used appropriately.
• All the marks on the mark scheme are designed to be awarded.
Examiners should always award full marks if deserved, i.e. if the
answer matches the mark scheme. Examiners should also be
prepared to award zero marks if the candidate’s response is not
worthy of credit according to the mark scheme.
• Where some judgement is required, mark schemes will provide the
principles by which marks will be awarded and exemplification may
be limited.
• When examiners are in doubt regarding the application of the mark
scheme to a candidate’s response, the team leader must be
consulted.
• Crossed out work should be marked UNLESS the candidate has
replaced it with an alternative response.
 EDEXCEL GCE MATHEMATICS
General Instructions for Marking
1. The total number of marks for the paper is 80.

2. The Edexcel Mathematics mark schemes use the following types of marks:

• M marks: method marks are awarded for ‘knowing a method and attempting
to apply it’, unless otherwise indicated.
• A marks: Accuracy marks can only be awarded if the relevant method (M)
marks have been earned.
• B marks are unconditional accuracy marks (independent of M marks)
• Marks should not be subdivided.

3. Abbreviations
These are some of the traditional marking abbreviations that will appear in the mark
schemes.
• bod – benefit of doubt
• ft – follow through
• the symbol will be used for correct ft
• cao – correct answer only
• cso - correct solution only. There must be no errors in this part of the
question to obtain this mark
• isw – ignore subsequent working
• awrt – answers which round to
• SC: special case
• oe – or equivalent (and appropriate)
• dep – dependent
• indep – independent
• dp decimal places
• sf significant figures
•  The answer is printed on the paper
• The second mark is dependent on gaining the first mark

4. For misreading which does not alter the character of a question or materially
simplify it, deduct two from any A or B marks gained, in that part of the question
affected.

5. Where a candidate has made multiple responses and indicates which response
they wish to submit, examiners should mark this response.
If there are several attempts at a question which have not been crossed out,
examiners should mark the final answer which is the answer that is the most
complete.

6. Ignore wrong working or incorrect statements following a correct answer.

7. Mark schemes will firstly show the solution judged to be the most common
response expected from candidates. Where appropriate, alternatives
answers are provided in the notes. If examiners are not sure if an answer
is acceptable, they will check the mark scheme to see if an alternative
answer is given for the method used.
 Qu Scheme Marks AOs
1(a) r = P ( X = 3) 100 or r = P ( X = 1) 100 or s = P ( X = 2 ) 100 M1 3.4
r = 25 (value may be in table) A1 1.1b
s = 37.5 (value may be in table) A1 1.1b
(3)
(b) H0: B(4,0.5) is a suitable model (o.e.) Condone B(0.5, 4)
B1 2.5
H1: B(4,0.5) is not a suitable model (o.e.)

( Oi − Ei )
2

2.25 2.56 0.54 4 1.21

Ei M1 1.1b
Oi 2
16 43.56 29.04 9 12.96
Ei
( Oi − Ei )
2
Oi 2  264 
 Ei
= 10.56 or  E − N = 110.56 – 100 = 10.56  = 25  A1 1.1b
i
 = 5 −1 = 4 B1 1.1b
CV = 9.488 (Calc 9.487729035…) B1ft 1.1b
Significant so there is evidence that the researcher's model is not
A1 2.2b
suitable
(6)
Total 9
Using the Binomial model to expected value. Allow if both probs 0.25 and 0.375 seen
(a) M1
May be implied by a correct value of r or s. Alternatives r = 6.25  4 or s = 6.25  6
st
1 A1 for r = 25
2ndA1 for s = 37.5

SC “B1” If M0 scored but their values of r and s satisfy 2r + s = 87.5 score as M0A0A1

1st B1 Both hypotheses correct using the correct notation in at least one or written in full e.g.
(b)
binomial with n = 4 and p = 0.5
M1
( Oi − Ei )
2
Oi 2
Calculating either or at least 4 correct. Implied by sight of awrt 10.6
Ei Ei
1st A1 Allow 10.6 (from correct working)
2nd B1 Correct dof May be implied by CV of 9.48 or 9.49 or better
3rdB1ft For 9.488 or better. Can ft their dof NB 32 (5%) = 7.815 (allow awrt 7.815)
2ndA1 Indep’of hypotheses but dep on 1st A1
Evaluating the outcome by drawing a correct inference.
Compatible with comparison of 10.56 or 10.6 with their CV (which must be > 1)
They must say model not suitable (o.e.)
They do not need to state the comparison or say reject H0 etc
No need to explicitly see B(4, 0.5) mentioned here

Question Scheme Marks AOs

 2(a)  E ( X ) =  0.2b − 1 B1 1.1b
(1)
(b) E ( X 2 ) = 25  0.3 + 1 0.25  +0  0.1 + 25  0.15 + 0.2b 2  = 11.5 + 0.2b 2  M1 1.1b
"11.5 + 0.2b 2 "− ("0.2b − 1")  = 34.26
2
M1 3.1a
0.16b2 + 0.4b − 23.76  = 0 25  = 0
b 2 + 52 b − 594
4
or 25 M1 1.1b
b = 11 [since b > 5] A1 2.2a
(4)
(c) X –5 –1 0 5 “11”
X2 25 1 0 25 "121"
2 – 3X 17 5 2 – 13 "– 31"
M1 2.1
X 2– 2 23 –1 –2 23 "119"
A1ft 1.1b
– 3X 15 3 0 15 "–33"
X 2 + 3X 10 –2 0 40 “154”
X 2 + 3X – 2 8 –4 –2 38 “152”
P ( X 2  2 − 3 X ) = P ( X = −1) + P ( X = 0 ) M1 2.2a
= 0.35 A1 1.1b
(4)
Total 9
(a) B1 Correct expression for E ( X )

1st M1 Correct attempt at E ( X 2 ) using  x P( X = x) at least 3 correct non-zero products

2

(b)
Allow ( −5 ) etc
2

2
( )
2nd M1 Realising that Var(X) = E X −  E( X ) needs to be used
2

3rd M1 Reducing their equation to a 3 term quadratic. At least 2 terms correct.

Allow e.g. 0.16b2 + 0.4b =23.76 Condone missing “=0”
A1 For 11 only (from the correct equation) so –13.5 must be eliminated
Correct answer with no incorrect working seen scores 4/4

1st M1 At least 4 values correct for (X 2 and 2 – 3X) or for (X 2 – 2 and – 3X) or X 2 + 3X or
(c)
X 2 + 3 X − 2 (o.e.) Allow for solving equation with one sign error
1st A1ft All correct or correct ft with their b but must have b > 5 (accurate to 1 sf)
−3 17
Allow solving equation to get awrt –3.6 and awrt 0.56 or 2 (ft their b > 5)
If there are omissions but no errors in the lists of values then if 2nd M1 and 2nd A1
are scored then the 1st M1 and 1st A1 can be given by implication.
2nd M1 For identifying the correct values of X required i.e. X = – 1 and X = 0
2nd A1 0.35
NB It is possible to score M0A0M1A1 here if their table of values is incorrect
Correct answer with no incorrect working seen scores 4/4
(Allow correct use of their b > 5)
 Qu Scheme Marks AOs
3(a) W ~ Po(11.2) and P (W …19 ) = 1 − P (W „ 18 ) or suitable 3sf probs M1 3.4
P (W …19 ) = 0.020776... awrt 0.021 A1 1.1b
(2)
(b) [S = # calls per day, S ~ Po(0.4)] P( S  1) = 0.061551... awrt 0.0616 B1 1.1b
X ~ B(250, “0.061551..”) M1 3.3
Y ~ Po(“15.3879…”) [Accept Po(15.4) or better] or suitable 3sf probs M1 3.4
= 0.14751… awrt 0.148 A1 1.1b
(4)
(c) H0:  = 16.8 H1:   16.8 B1 2.5
U Po(16.8) B1 3.3
P(U „ 8) = 0.014 M1 1.1b
[0.014 < 0.05 or there is sufficient evidence to reject H0]
There is sufficient evidence at the 5% level of significance that the A1 2.2b
number of calls received per day is lower in winter
or rate of calls is lower in winter or less calls per day in winter (o.e.) (4)
(d) C ~ Po(0.4  n + 0.2  n) [= Po(0.6n)] or D ~ B(n, e−0.6 or awrt 0.549) M1 3.1b
e−0.6 n  0.001 or – 0.6n < ln(0.001) or n > 11.5… M1 1.1b
n = 12 A1 1.1b
(3)
(e) The rate of calls per day is constant or the number of calls occurring in B1 2.4
non-overlapping time intervals is independent. or number of calls per
(1)
day is independent (o.e.)
Total 14
(a) M1 For using the model Po(11.2) implied by sight of: 0.02077… or 0.9889.. or 0.9792..
A1 awrt 0.021
(b) B1 awrt 0.0616
st
1 M1 Setting up a new model B(250, “0.0616”) [condone B(“0.0616”, 250)]
2nd M1 Seeing the model Po(their np) implied by sight of: 0.1475.. or 0.89975 or 0.8524…
A1 awrt 0.148
if no approximation used(and 1st M1 not seen) an answer of awrt 0.140 could get
SC
B1M1M0A0
(c) 1st B1 Both hypotheses correct using  or μ and 16.8 or 0.4 [Accept their ans to 0.4  42 ]
2nd B1 Realising Po(16.8) needs to be used. Sight or use of, implied by correct prob or CR
M1 For 0.014 or better (0.0141..) or CR X „ 9 oe must be CR and not probability.
[Allow CR X „ 10 with probability P( X „ 10 ) = 0.054 or better]
A1 Indep of 1st B1 (must see 2nd B1 and M1 scored) for a correct inference in context
(d) 1stM1 Selecting a suitable model. Sight of Po(0.6n) or B(n, e−0.6 ) or implied by 2nd M1
2ndM1 For a correct inequality or equality involving n [Condone slips in solving]
Allow MR i.e. misread of 0.01 for 0.001 (or similar) to score M1M1A0
A1 n = 12 cao [Correct answer with no incorrect working seen scores 3/3]
(e) B1 Allow equivalent statements. Underlined words required.
 Question Scheme Marks AOs

P (W = 6 ) = ( 0.89 ) ( 0.11)
5
4(a) (i) [W ~ Geo(0.11) ] M1 3.3
= 0.06142… awrt 0.0614 A1 1.1b
(2)
(ii) P (W „ 5) = 1 − (0.89)5 M1 3.1b
= 0.44159… awrt 0.442 A1 1.1b
(2)
(iii) X ~ B(6, 0.11) M1 3.3
P ( X = 4 ) = 0.001739… awrt 0.00174 A1 1.1b
(2)
(iv) [ Y ~ NB(4, 0.11)] using a neg bin or V~B(6, 0.11) M1 3.3
P (Y „ 6 ) = P (Y = 4 ) + P (Y = 5 ) + P (Y = 6 ) and P(V …4) for M2 M1 3.1b
 4  5
( 0.11)+   ( 0.11) ( 0.89 )  0.11 +   ( 0.11) ( 0.89 )  0.11
4 3 1 3 2
= M1 3.4
 3  3
= 0.001827 awrt 0.00183 A1 1.1b
(4)
(b) P( Zac wins) = 0.89  0.11 + ( 0.89 )  0.11 + ( 0.89 )  0.11 + ...
3 5
M1 3.1b
0.89  0.11
= oe M1 1.1b
1 − ( 0.89 )
2

= 0.47089….= 0.471* A1cso* 2.1

(3)
Total 13
Correct method to find P (W = 6 ) eg ( p ) (1 − p ) for p = 0.11 or 0.89
5
(a)(i) M1
A1 awrt 0.0614 (Correct ans with no incorrect working 2/2)
(ii) M1 Correct method to find P (W „ 5)
A1 awrt 0.442 (Correct ans with no incorrect working 2/2)
(iii) M1 For using the model B(6, 0.11) allow B(6, 0.89) [Implied by 0.0017 or awrt 0.114]
A1 awrt 0.00174 (Correct ans with no incorrect working 2/2)
(iv) In part (iv) we can accept correct expressions or values for probabilities
st
1 M1 For using a negative binomial model implied by correct P(Y = 5) or P(Y = 6)
2ndM1 Correct method to find P (Y „ 6 )
a 4 5 6
At least two correct terms or P(Y = a) 1.46 10−4 5.2110−4 1.16 10−3
3rdM1
1 – 0.99817.. from 1 – P( V „ 3 )
P(V = a) 1.74 10−3 8.60 10−5 1.77 10−6
A1 awrt 0.00183
st
1 M1 Forming the correct probability of Zac
(b) Allow for p = ( 0.11)  0 + (1 − 0.11)(1 − p )
winning or identify a and r of GP
0.89
2nd M1 Using sum to infinity of a GP Allow for p =
1 + 0.89
A1* Previous method marks must be seen leading to an answer 0.471 (NOT awrt 0.471)
Question Scheme Marks AOs
5 1  10 
Geo (0.3)  =  or exact equivalent e.g.  B1 1.1b
0.3  3
1 − 0.3  70 
2 = 2 
or exact equivalent e.g.
9 
B1 1.1b
0.3 
 10 
CLT  X  N  ,...  oe M1 2.1
 3 
 10 7 
 X  N ,  and attempt (sight of) P ( X  3.45 ) M1 3.4
 3 135 
= 0.69579… awrt 0.696 A1 1.1b
(5)
Total 5
1st B1 correct mean
7
2nd B1 correct Var may be implied by sight of 135
in distribution of X
1st M1 For use of CLT (must see X and Normal with mean correct ft ) or
 10 7   10 "70" 
sight of N  ,  or N  " ",  with any letter
 3 135   3 "9"150 
Allow 3.33 or better for 103 and 7.78 or better for 709
May be implied by 2nd M1
2nd M1 70
" "
Using the normal distribution to find P ( X  3.45 ) ft their " " and 9
10
3 150
May be implied by correct answer.
A1 awrt 0.696
Correct answer with no incorrect working scores 5/5

Alternative (Use of Y = X )
150
=  = 500 B1
0.3
150  0.7  3500 
2 = = 1166.6
0.32  3 
B1

 3500 
 Y  N  500,  M1
 3 
P (Y  517.5 ) M1
= 0.69579... A1
Question Scheme Marks AOs
6(a) 9 2 12 3 4 4  9 12 4 
G v( t ) = t + t + t or t2  + t + t2  M1 1.1b
25 25 25  25 25 25 
2
 2 3
=t  t+  *
2
A1* cso 2.1
 5 5
(2)
4 5
 2 3  2 3
(b)(i) GW  ( t ) = 2t  t +  +  t +  M1 2.1
5 5 5 5
G  (1) =  3 A1 1.1b
 W 
4 3 4
 2 3  16  2 3   2 3
(ii) GW  ( t ) = 2  t +  + t  t +  + 2  t +  oe M1 2.1
 5 5 5  5 5  5 5
36
GW  (1) = A1 1.1b
5
36
Var(W ) = " "+ "3"− ("3")
2
M1 2.1
5
6
= A1 1.1b
5
(6)
2 5
 2 3  2 3
(c) G X (t ) = t  t +  t  t + 
2
M1 3.1a
5 5 5 5
7
 2 3
=t  t+ 
3
A1 1.1b
5 5
(2)
7
2 3
(d) GY ( t ) = t  ( t
3
)
2 3
 t2 +  M1 3.1a
5 5
7
2 3
= t9  t2 +  A1 1.1b
5 5
(2)
3 4
 2  3
P (Y = 15) is coefficient of t 15 ie ... + t 9  7C3  t 2    + ...
 5  5
(e) 3 4
M1 1.1b
 2  3
or P(X = 6) need coefficient of t i.e. ... + t  C3  t    + ...
6 3 7

 5  5
22680 4536
 P (Y = 15 ) =  = = 0.290304 A1 1.1b
78125 15625
(2)
(14 marks)
 Notes:
(a) M1 A correct un-simplified pgf based on  t P(V = v)
v

A1* cso must see an un-simplified version i.e. M1 scored and no incorrect working seen
2
(b) Differentiating using the product rule to find GW  ( t ) Allow un-simplified e.g. 5  t
M1 5
(i)
Need two terms added and at least one correct. If they expand we need 3 correct.
A1 3 from a correct derivative

1stM1
Attempt GW  ( t ) ft their GW  ( t ) [must be at least 2 terms or a product], one correct ft
(ii)
term, same rule for differentiating a product
36
1stA1 or 7.2 from a correct derivative
5

( )
2
2ndM1 GW  (1) + GW  (1) − GW  (1) ft their GW  ( t ) if different from GW  ( t ) and GW (t )

6
2ndA1 Dep on M3A2 or 1.2
5
(c) M1 Realising the need to use G X ( t ) = GV ( t )  GW ( t )
7
 2 3
A1 t  t+ 
3

5 5
(d) M1 Realising the need to multiply through by t3 or substitute t2 for t or sight of t 3G X (t 2 )
7
2 3
A1 t  t 2 +  oe Need not be in its simplest form
9

5 5
M1 Attempting to find correct coefficient of tn or identify Y = 2 J + 9 where J ~ B(7, 0.4)
(e) Need an expression can ft their GY (t ) or G X (t ) of the form t n (at m + b)k
Allow a statement that P(Y = 15) = 0 if it follows from their pgf
A1 For a correct exact answer or allow awrt 0.2903 Allow 0.29 from correct expression

Alternative for (b)

(b) W = P + 1 where P ~ B(5, 0.4) so Var (W) = Var(P)
4
 2 3
(i) G P ( t ) = 2  t +  M1 2.1
5 5
GW  (1) = 2 + 1 = 3 A1 1.1b
3
16  2 3  16 M1; 2.1
(ii) G P ( t ) =  t +  ; G P (1) =
5 5 5 5 A1 1.1b
16 6 M1; 2.1
Var(W ) = " "+ "2"− ("2") ; =
2

5 5 A1 1.1b
MR They use GV (t ) instead of GW (t ) Provided some correct differentiation seen:
SC 14 12
Award B1 for E(V) = and B1 for Var(V) = score as M0A1M0A0M0A1
5 25
Question Scheme Marks Aos
7(a) X ~ N (1000, 90 ) (May be implied by correct prob or z value seen) M1 3.3
( )
P X > 1020 = 0.0175… or z = 2.108 A1 3.4
0.0175… < 0.025 or z = 2.108… > 1.96 therefore reject H0. M1 1.1b
There is evidence that the mean weight of the flour in a bag is not A1
2.2b
1000 g or evidence of a change in mean weight of flour in a bag cso
(4)
(b)   900   c − 1000
Y ~ N 1000, n    30 = 1.6449
  M1 3.4
 
n
49.347
c = 1000 + A1 1.1b
n
(2)
(c) 49.347
"1000 + "− 1020
n M1 3.4
= −2.5758 A1ft 1.1b
30
n
126.621 49.34... −77.274
= 20 or = (Allow 2sf accuracy) dM1 1.1b
n c − 1000 c − 1020
n = 40 A1 2.1
c = 1007.8… awrt 1010 A1 1.1b
(5)
(11 marks)
Notes:
(a) 1st M1 Setting up the correct model. Normal with  = 1000,  2 = 90 or  = 90 or awrt 9.49

1st A1
( )
Using the model to find the correct z value or P X > 1020 = awrt 0.0175
Allow CR C … 1018.59.. awrt 1019 [ > is OK] Ignore lower CR provided < 1000
Correct comparison or non-contextual conclusion. Allow comparison of 1020 with
2ndM1
( )
critical region. Dep on P X > 1020 M0 if there are contradictory statements.
cso dep on M1A1M1 for a correct conclusion in context with underlined words
2ndA1
Do NOT accept “mean weight has increased”
For Finding the CR using the Normal distribution. Condone  = 30
n to score M1

(b) M1 c − 1000
= z where z  1.5 Allow any inequality or = for M1 in (b) and
30 M1 A1ft M1 in (c)
n
A correct equation in the form c =… and for use of awrt 1.6449
A1
(implied by awrt 49.3[4]) Condone X used for c (o.e.)
Standardising using their c (letter or expression) and equating to z ( |z| > 2) to form
(c) 1st M1
an equation in n or n and c. Can ft their  used in (b) for M1A1ft here
1stA1ft Ft their “c” for a correct equation with – 2.58 (or 1.64 or 1.65 used in (b))
2nddM1
Dependent 1st M1. Isolating or eliminating either n or n or eliminating c leading
to an equation for n or c
2nd A1 For 40 (allow 41) Must be an integer. With correct working. e.g. Check correct 
3rd A1 For awrt 1010 from correct working has been used