EUGENIO MIELI

ANDREA MARIA FRANCESCO VALLI

CLAUDIO MACCONE

LIVING
The

GALAXY
WINNERS AND LOSERS
IN THE MILKY WAY
The Living Galaxy
 Eugenio Mieli
Andrea Maria Francesco Valli
Claudio Maccone

The Living Galaxy

Winners and Losers in the Milky Way
Eugenio Mieli Andrea Maria Francesco Valli
Pomezia, Roma, Italy Société Scientifique du Bourbonnais pour
l’Étude et la Protection de la Nature
Claudio Maccone Moulins-sur-Allier, Allier, France
Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica
Roma, Roma, Italy

ISBN 978-3-031-67323-8    ISBN 978-3-031-67324-5 (eBook)

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Exploring the fields of astronomy, geology, biology, paleontology, and futurology,
we find that the current number of planets inhabited by galactic civilizations
like ours is estimated to be around 3, including Earth and perhaps one or two
others located approximately 17,000 light-years away from us, a vast distance.
However, just as life forms are born in a specific niche and, if conditions permit,
can spread across an entire ecosystem, a galactic civilization that overcomes all
the challenges it faces could potentially spread throughout the entire galaxy,
becoming, in essence, ETERNAL. In such a scenario, the present number
of civilizations would exceed 2000, all highly advanced and capable
of traversing the galaxy.
Thus, the question we should be asking ourselves is different: if we
were a super-civilization with the ability to traverse the galaxy, where
would we choose to venture? Would solar systems like our own hold
any interest for these civilizations?
 Foreword

Are we alone in the universe? This question has captivated the minds of scien-
tists, philosophers, and dreamers for centuries. It strikes at the heart of our
understanding of our place in the cosmos and the nature of life itself. As we
seek to answer this fundamental question, the search for extraterrestrial intel-
ligence (SETI) has become one of the most important and exciting fields of
scientific inquiry.
Ultimately, the question can only be answered through observation. We
must search the skies for signs of life beyond Earth, whether in the form of
radio signals, biosignatures in the atmospheres of distant exoplanets, or even
direct evidence of the technology employed by extraterrestrial civilizations.
However, while we continue to observe and explore, we can also use the Drake
equation to guide our thinking about the likelihood of life existing elsewhere
in the universe.
The Drake equation, first proposed by astronomer Frank Drake in 1961, is
a probabilistic argument for estimating the number of active, communicative
extraterrestrial civilizations in our Milky Way galaxy. The classic form of the
equation takes into account various factors, such as the rate of star formation,
the fraction of stars with planets, the number of habitable planets per star, and
the likelihood of intelligent life emerging and surviving long enough to com-
municate. By assigning values to these variables, we can arrive at an estimate
of the number of civilizations that might exist in our galaxy.
Some have called the Drake equation a way of quantifying our ignorance
about the prevalence of life in the universe. After all, many of the variables in
the equation are currently unknown or difficult to estimate with any certainty.
However, the equation serves as a valuable framework for thinking about the
factors that might influence the emergence of life and intelligence beyond Earth.

vii
viii Foreword

In their groundbreaking book The Living Galaxy, the authors take an origi-
nal and exhaustive approach to the Drake equation. They delve deep into each
of the equation’s variables, drawing on the latest research from a wide range of
scientific disciplines. From astronomy to anthropology, geology to genetics,
the authors explore the cutting-edge science that is shedding new light on the
possibility of extraterrestrial life.
Readers of The Living Galaxy will be exposed to a wealth of fascinating
insights and discoveries. They will learn about the ongoing search for exoplan-
ets, the potential for life to emerge in the harsh environments of other worlds,
and the evolutionary processes that might lead to the development of intelli-
gence and technology. The book also explores the cultural and philosophical
implications of the search for extraterrestrial life, and how the discovery of
alien civilizations might change our understanding of ourselves and our place
in the universe.
As you embark on this journey through the pages of The Living Galaxy, I
invite you to keep an open mind and a sense of wonder. The search for life
beyond Earth is one of the great scientific adventures of our time, and the
Drake equation remains a useful tool for guiding our thinking and inspiring
our imagination. Whether we are alone in the universe or part of a vast cosmic
community, the quest for answers is sure to be a thrilling and enlightening one.

Lee-on-the-Solent, UK Stephen Webb

 Introduction

This is not merely a scientific book. Rather, it aims to primarily tell a story of
a series of events, beginning with the pre-cosmic era, progressing through
prehistory, and culminating in a futuristic narrative populated by vivid sce-
narios and powerful protagonists. Although their existence is rooted in scien-
tific models, together they represent the drama of life itself – being born,
imposing its presence, or dying and disappearing.
The setting would be akin to many mythical theogonies, the theme equally
transcendent: the creation of the world, the fate of the beings that inhabit it,
the fall and potential redemption, the initial reality, and the final one.
However, the singers of such an epic poem are now astrophysics, geology,
chemistry, biology, paleontology, and futurology, and the poetic meter they
employ is mathematics.
The action commences among the last stars, sisters indeed, but profoundly
different from one another. It continues in planetary systems that, much like
diverse ecosystems, prove either hospitable or hostile to life. It witnesses life's
inevitable emergence as soon as conditions permit. It follows life's various
attempts to preserve itself, evolve, and push towards intelligence and technol-
ogy. It bears witness to an intelligence exposed to the greatest risks – those
created by itself – which threaten to plunge it back into the darkness of extinc-
tion. It concludes its journey alongside a handful of survivors, superior beings,
true citizens of the galaxy free to roam among the stars.
A story of possibilities, attempts, defeats, and redemptions, on the scale not
of humankind, but of galactic civilizations.

ix
 Contents

1 W
 here Is Everyone?  1

2 The Phases and the Challenges  7

Part I The Astronomical Parameters Ns, np and fs

3 1st
 Drake: The Stellar Numerosity of the Galactic
Disk for K, G and F Spectral Class Stars 13

4 2nd
 Drake: Number of Planets per Star, Suitable
for Life in the Habitable Zone (Spectral Class F, G and K) 17

5 3rd
 Drake: Fraction of Stable Planets for 7 Gy
(Duration of the Stellar Population) 19
5.1 Challenge 1: Multiple Star Systems  19
5.2 Challenge 2: Supernovae Less Than 40 ly Away
(Safety Distance)  21
5.3 Challenge 3: Gamma Bursts Less Than 5000 ly Away
(Safety Distance)  22
5.4 Challenge 4: Super-Flares from One’s Own Star  24
5.5 Challenge 5: Transit of Gas Giants on Inner Orbits  27
5.6 Challenge 6: Prolonged Meteoric Bombardment  29
5.7 Challenge 7: Instability of the Rotation Axis  30

xi
xii Contents

5.8 Challenge 8: Absence of the Carbon Cycle  31

5.9 Challenge 9: Absence of the Planetary Magnetic Field  33
5.10 The Calculation of the Third Parameter from the Nine
Challenges 34

6 Considerations on the First Three Parameters 37

Part II Drake’s Biological Parameters: fl and fi

7 4th Drake: The Transition from Non-living to Living 43

8 The Theory of Mario Ageno 47

9 The Calculation of the Fourth Parameter fl 51

10 The
 Transition from Non-living to Living, Phase by Phase 55
10.1 The Starting Point; the Habitable Planet  55
10.2 The First Phase; the Abiological Synthesis of Biological
Molecules 57
10.3 The Second Phase; the Concentration of the Primordial
Broth 58
10.4 The Third Phase; the Formation of Lipidic Vesicles  59
10.5 The Fourth Phase; the Inclusion of Chlorophyll in Lipid
Membranes 61
10.6 The Fifth Phase; the “Proton Pump for Photosynthesis”  63
10.7 The Sixth Phase; the Formation of Nucleic Acid Filaments  65
10.8 The Seventh Phase; the Catalytic Role of RNA  67
10.9 The Eighth Phase; Determination of Roles  68
10.10 The Ninth Phase; the Formation of the Cell Membrane  70
10.11 The Tenth Phase; the Emergence of the Genetic Code  72
10.12 Evaluation of Probabilities at Each Stage  73

11 Considerations on the Fourth Parameter 77

12 Fifth
 Drake: The Probability of Intelligent Life fi 81
12.1 The Starting Point; The Conditions of Stability
of a Planet  82
 Contents xiii

13 Macrointerval
 A: The Crucial Transition; The Onset
of the Eukaryotic Cell 85
13.1 The Eukaryotic Cell as a Symbiosis Between
Prokaryotes 88
13.2 The Inside-Out Model for the Emergence
of the Eukaryotic Cell  92
13.3 The Onset of the Eukaryotic Cell, Phase by Phase.
The Starting Point; The Release of Oxygen and Its
Diffusion in the Environment  93
13.4 The First Phase; The Evolution of an Aerobic
Bacterium 95
13.5 The Second Phase: The Host-Symbiont Encounter  96
13.6 The Third Phase; The Formation of Pores on the
Membrane and the Extrusion of Cytoplasmic
Extensions 98
13.7 The Fourth Phase; The “Wrapping” of the Symbionts
and the Disappearance of the Host’s Cell Wall  99
13.8 The Fifth Phase; The “Penetration” of the Symbionts
into the Cytoplasm 100
13.9 The Sixth Phase; The Migration of DNA from the
Genome of the Symbiont to That of the Host 101
13.10 The Seventh Phase; The Acquisition of the Eukaryotic
Cytoplasmic Membrane 103
13.11 The Eighth Phase; The Incorporation of the
Host-Symbionts Ensemble into a Single Coating
(Continuity of the Cytoplasm) and Phagocytosis 105
13.12 Evaluation of the Probabilities at the Passage
of Each Stage 106

14 Macrointerval
 B: The Second Step; The Birth
of Animals (the Metazoans)109
14.1 The Onset of Metazoans, Phase by Phase.
The Starting Point; The Choanoflagellates 114
14.2 The First Phase; The Acquisition of a Complex Life Cycle 114
14.3 The Second Phase; The Aggregation of Zoospores
and the Formation of the Synzoospore 115
14.4 The Third Phase; The Sedentary Colony Composed
of Differentiated Cells 116
14.5 The Fourth Phase; The Production of Collagen 116
14.6 Evaluation of Probabilities at Each Stage 118
xiv Contents

15 Macrointerval
 C: The “Solution” of Intelligence Deduced
from the Definition of Kardashev, Focused on Energy per
Individual, and Its Birth Within Metazoans (the Homo Case)121
15.1 The Birth of Intelligence, Phase by Phase. The Starting
Point; The Ediacara Fauna 123
15.2 The First Phase; The Increase in the Size of Metazoans
and the Acquisition of the Nervous and Vascular
Systems124
15.3 The Second Phase; The Development of Limbs 126
15.4 The Third Phase; The Conquest of Land 127
15.5 The Fourth Phase; The Differentiation of Terrestrial
Animals130
15.6 The Fifth Phase; The Acquisition of Sociality 131
15.7 The Sixth Phase; The Upright Stance and Manual Skills 134
15.8 The Seventh Phase; The Change in Diet
and the Growth of the Brain 137
15.9 The Eighth Phase; The Organization of the Brain
on Abstract Thought 138
15.10 The Ninth Phase; The Birth of Articulated Language
and Technique 139
15.11 Evaluation of Probabilities at Each Stage 141

16 Evaluation
 of the Total Probability: The Fifth Drake
Parameter143

17 Considerations on the Fifth Parameter145

18 Th
 e Oxygen Curve147

Part III Drake’s Social Parameters: fc and fl

19 Sixth
 Drake: Fraction of Planets Where Life Decides to
Communicate157

20 Seventh
 Drake: Temporal Fraction of the Duration
of a Civilization159
20.1 Is Gott’s Delta-T Argument Applicable to
the Duration of Galactic Civilizations? 160
 Contents xv

20.2 The Calculation of the Distribution Curve

of the Duration of a Galactic Civilization 161
20.3 The Seven Challenges of Galactic Civilizations
(and the Plan B) 166
20.4 The First Challenge: Self-Destruction Due
to Evolutionary Insufficiency 167
20.5 The Second Challenge: Self-Destruction Due
to a Technological Error 169
20.6 The Third Challenge: Technological Insufficiency
to Face the Planetary Changes That Have Occurred 170
20.7 The Fourth Challenge: Spontaneous Involution 172
20.8 The Fifth Challenge: The Artificial Genetic Transition
Ended on a Dead Track 173
20.9 The Sixth Challenge: Transition of Finite Artificial
Intelligence onto a Dead-End Track 174
20.10 The Seventh Challenge: Reaching the point Ω177
20.11 Plan B: Escape to Other Planets and Interstellar Travel 179
20.12 The Calculation of the Seventh Drake Parameter 179

21 Considerations on the Seventh Parameter183

22 The Hypothesis of Tipler and Brin of Dynamic Civilizations185

Part IV The Complete Drake Equation

23 Still the Fermi Paradox (But Really, Where Is Everyone?)191

Part V Winners and Losers in the Milky Way

24 Identikit
 of Two Possible Intelligent Alien Species195
24.1 The Arthropoid 195
24.2 The Cephalopoid 199
24.3 The Arthropoid Faces the Seven Challenges
of the Seventh Parameter 202
24.4 The Cephalopoid Faces the Seven Challenges of the
Seventh Parameter 204
xvi Contents

Part VI Epilogue

25 Th
 e Cheetah’s Pity209

A
 cknowledgements215

A
 uthors’ Contributions217

F
 igure Credits219

A
 ppendix A225

Appendix B: Percentage of Past Planets and Present

for Each Stage of Development227

Appendix C: The Calculation of the Distribution Function

of the Seventh Parameter231

Appendix D: The Complete Calculation of the Lognormal235

A
 ppendix E243

B
 ibliography245
 1
Where Is Everyone?

In 1950, during a lunchtime conversation discussing extraterrestrials, the

renowned physicist Enrico Fermi turned to his colleagues Edward Teller, Emil
Konopinski, and Herbert York, and asked a thought-provoking question:
“Where is everybody?” His colleagues were accustomed to Fermi’s penchant
for mentally calculating solutions to highly complex situations from what
seemed like insufficient data. In this case, he had mentally estimated the num-
ber N of contemporary civilizations that should populate our galaxy, arriving
at a certainly high value, despite the lack of evidence of their existence—a
phenomenon known as the “great silence.”
This paradox, now referred to as the Fermi paradox, remained unanswered
for a decade.
In 1960, the first Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI) was con-
ducted by Frank Drake, who shortly after listed the numbers we would need
to know to estimate the number N of communicating societies in the galaxy
[21]. In reality, this list was originally intended to serve as an agenda for a
meeting at the Green Bank Observatory in West Virginia. However, his list
was perceived as a genuine equation, a product of seven factors that could be
used to calculate N. These factors were:

N = R∗ ⋅ fp ⋅ n e ⋅ fl ⋅ fi ⋅ fc ⋅ L

R* is the annual rate of star formation in the Milky Way

fp is the fraction of stars with planets
ne is the number of planets suitable for life per star

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2 E. Mieli et al.

fl is the fraction of suitable planets where life develops

fi is the fraction of planets inhabited by intelligent life
fc is the fraction of planets where intelligent life decides to communicate
L is the lifespan of the planet in which intelligent life persists

Drake had probably written down what Fermi had simply thought a decade
earlier. However, it was soon realized that this first description was insufficient
to reach concrete conclusions since the seven factors often fluctuate between
very distant minimum and maximum values, and in some cases are com-
pletely unknown. We refer especially to the factors from the fourth onward,
where astronomical knowledge is no longer of much help [114].
In 2008, Claudio Maccone, while chairing the Permanent SETI Committee
of the International Academy of Astronautics based in Paris, devised a power-
ful mathematical tool called the statistical Drake equation. This equation, start-
ing from the statistical distribution of the seven individual factors, obtains the
statistical distribution of their product according to a curve called lognormal,
or the distribution curve of a random variable whose logarithm is distributed
as a normal distribution [65] (Appendix D).
This result is not taken for granted and becomes increasingly accurate as
more factors contribute to the calculation, as the error is reduced as the number
of elements in the product increases (central limit theorem). A graphical
example of the lognormal function Φ is shown in Fig. 1.1 while its analytical
form is presented in Fig. 1.2.
As done by other authors, we have preferred to refer to a variant of the clas-
sic Drake equation that is more suitable for our purposes.

Fig. 1.1 Example of lognormal distribution Φ: the distribution exists for x > 0 and is
normalized with an average value, in the example given, around 0.007 and a deviation
around 0.002 (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)
 1 Where Is Everyone? 3

Fig. 1.2 General case of application of the lognormal Φ to the group of Uniform ran-
dom variables Xj between the minimum and maximum values Aj and Bj. This results in
the distribution of the product variable X0 with mean <X0> and variance σ(X0) (IJA
14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

Or, in our case:

N = N s ⋅ n p ⋅ fs ⋅ fl ⋅ fi ⋅ fc ⋅ fL

With:

Ns number of galaxy stars suitable for life (i.e., of spectral class K, G, and F)
np number of planets per star in the habitable zone (of spectral class K,
G, and F)
fs fraction of stable planets in the habitable zone (function of duration ∆T )
fl fraction of suitable planets where life actually develops
fi fraction of planets inhabited by intelligent life
fc fraction of planets where intelligent life decides to communicate
fL fraction of the planet’s lifetime in which intelligent life persists compared
to the duration of the last stellar population (about 7 Gy)
4 E. Mieli et al.

As you can see, in the original Drake equation, the first factor is the annual
star formation rate in the Milky Way, R*, which is equal to Ns/ΔT0, where Ns
is the number of stars and ∆T0 is the average duration of the last stellar popu-
lation (7 Gy or 7 billion years). However, in our equation, the first factor
loses the denominator ∆T0. Instead, ∆T0 divides the last term L, which
becomes fL (the fraction of a planet’s lifetime in which intelligent life persists
compared to the duration of the last stellar population). In this way, as we will
see, we will be able to use the first terms of the Drake equation to directly
obtain information not only about advanced civilizations but also about life
forms in general.
Moreover, the choice was made not to delegate all the calculation effort on
the third of the first three parameters of Drake’s original equation (ne, or the
number of planets suitable for life). Instead, we partially redistributed the
work across the first two parameters: the first parameter, Ns, has become the
number of stars in the galaxy that belong Only to the spectral classes K, G, and
F, which are suitable for the development of life (a star’s spectral class is
assigned based on its surface temperature [61]).
Similarly, the second parameter has become np, or the number of planets
per star in the habitable zone, thus also taking on the burden of discriminat-
ing Only the planets in the so-called “Goldilocks zone,” where conditions are
appropriate (remember that the parameter fp in the original equation simply
represented the fraction of stars with planets).
As a result, in our equation, the third parameter, fs, replacing ne (the num-
ber of planets suitable for life), specifically becomes the fraction of stable plan-
ets in the habitable zone, which is also a function of the duration, ∆T, that we
consider, depending on the stages of life development under consideration. As
mentioned, this way of redefining the Drake equation will be useful both in
estimating each individual parameter and in using the entire equation, which
can be employed not only for counting galactic civilizations but also for esti-
mating the number of planets on which life develops at different evolution-
ary levels.
Finally, while Drake referred the onset of intelligence to the fifth parameter
and made it technological and communicating in the sixth, we have instead
chosen to define intelligence according to a stricter criterion of energy avail-
ability, as we will see in detail, based on the model of Kardashev [51]: intelli-
gence is technologically at least on our level, with a minimum parameter
K = 0.7. This factor defines the perimeter of the fifth parameter, while the
sixth takes charge only of civilizations that Decide not to communicate and
remain in the shadows. The seventh, dealing with the duration of civilizations,
also absorbs within it the cases in which the aforementioned civilizations Are
Induced or Forced not to communicate anymore.
 1 Where Is Everyone? 5

If we limited ourselves to a simple revisitation of the Drake equation, even

with a new statistical tool like Maccone’s lognormal, we would make very
little further progress towards the knowledge of extraterrestrial civilizations.
But we also established a crucial fact: the statistical result of a product is all the
more accurate the more factors contribute to the calculation. This aspect of
Maccone’s algorithm allows us to fully immerse ourselves in the details of each
single parameter without fear of losing precision but, on the contrary, with
the certainty of gaining it. By doing this, in the rest of the book, we will move
from estimating the probabilities related to the seven factors described in the
equation to the following 50 factors:

Part I—Astronomical Parameters

1. Number of Galaxy Stars Suitable for Life (of Spectral Class F, G, K)

2. Number of Suitable Planets in the Habitable Zone per Star (of Spectral
Class F, G, K)
3. Fraction of Stable Planets
(a) Multiple star systems
(b) Supernovae within 40 ly (light years)
(c) Gamma-ray bursts within 5000 ly (light years)
(d) Super flares from their own star
(e) Transit of gas giants on inner orbits
(f ) Prolonged meteor bombardment
(g) Instability of the rotation axis
(h) Absence of the carbon cycle
(i) Absence of the planetary magnetic field

Part II—Biological Parameters

4. Fraction of Planets Where Life Arises

(a) The abiological synthesis of biological molecules
(b) The concentration of the primordial broth
(c) The formation of lipid bags
(d) The inclusion of chlorophyll in lipid membranes
(e) The “proton photopump”
(f ) The formation of nucleic acid filaments
(g) The catalytic role of RNA
(h) Determination of roles
(i) Formation of the cell membrane
(j) Emergence of the genetic code
6 E. Mieli et al.

5A. Fraction of Planets Where Eukaryotes Arise

(a) The evolution of an aerobic bacterium
(b) The host-symbiont encounter
(c) The formation of pores and the extrusion of extensions
(d) The “wrapping” of the symbionts and the disappearance of the cell
wall of the host
(e) The “penetration of the symbionts into the cytoplasm”
(f ) The migration of DNA from the genome of the symbiont to that
of the host
(g) The acquisition of the eukaryotic cytoplasmic membrane
(h) The incorporation into a single coating and phagocytosis
5B. Fraction of Planets in Which Animals (Metzoi) Were Born
(a) The acquisition of a complex life cycle
(b) The aggregation of zoospores and the formation of the synzoospore
(c) The sedentary colony composed of differentiated cells
(d) The production of collagen
5C. Fraction of Planets Where Technological Civilizations (ETCs) Are Born
(a) Increase in metazoan size (nervous and vascular system)
(b) Development of limbs
(c) Conquest of the mainland
(d) Differentiation of terrestrial animals
(e) Acquisition of sociality
(f ) Upright stance and manual dexterity
(g) Change in diet and brain growth
(h) Organization of the brain for abstract thought
(i) Birth of articulated language and technique

PART III—Social Parameters

6. Fraction of Planets Where Life Decides to Communicate

7. Fraction of Duration of the ETCs
(a) Self-destruction due to evolutionary insufficiency
(b) Unintentional technological error
(c) Technological insufficiency to face planetary changes
(d) Spontaneous involution
(e) Artificial genetic transition ended on a dead track
(f ) Transition of artificial intelligence ended on a dead track
(g) Reaching point Ω
(h) ETCs that overcome the seven challenges and become eternal

The result of this description is the story of life divided into 50 steps: the
trials that life must overcome to assert itself at various levels of development.
 2
The Phases and the Challenges

The 50 steps described, as we will see, have different statistical characteristics

that will be examined in due course. The fundamental characteristic underly-
ing all the others is the distinction between a step defined as a phase and a step
defined as a challenge. To immediately grasp the difference between the two,
let’s use the following analogy: suppose we have a path with various difficul-
ties; for example (Fig. 2.1a, b):

A A maze to exit from (with probability pA)

B A Tibetan bridge to overcome (with probability pB)

Fig. 2.1 (a) A maze to exit from (with probability pA); (b) A Tibetan bridge to over-
come (with probability pB) (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024 7

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8 E. Mieli et al.

Both of these difficulties have associated the probabilities of overcoming

them, pA and pB. Apparently, the statistical nature of these two path steps is
the same, but is it really so? No, in fact, with respect to time, the two steps
behave in opposite ways. That is, the probability pA of exiting the maze
increases with the time spent in the maze (because over time we understand
its intricacies better), while the probability pB of overcoming the Tibetan
bridge decreases with the time spent on the bridge (because risks increase with
time spent in the dangerous situation). The first, borrowing terminology from
relativity theory, is Covariant with Time and we will define the corresponding
step as a phase, while the second is Contravariant with Time and we will define
the corresponding step as a challenge.
If pA and pB do not have an explicit time dependence (this will be true for
us only as a first approximation), then their respective transformation laws,
going from a reference time interval ∆T0 (with probabilities pA0 and pB0) to
any ΔT = n ⋅ ΔT0 (with probabilities pA and pB), will be:

A Phase pA = 1 − (1 − pA0)n increasing with n

B Challenge pB = (pB0)n decreasing with n

It is easy to see that, as n increases, pA approaches 1, while pB approaches 0;

in both cases exponentially with respect to n.
If pA and pB have an explicit dependence on time, then their trend is no
longer simply exponential, even if they maintain their nature of phases or
challenges.
 Part I
The Astronomical
Parameters Ns, np and fs

At least in the abstract, the mathematical approach for the first three param-
eters is less daunting than for the biological ones, the fourth and fifth,
because the astronomical events we will now refer to are largely indepen-
dent of each other without a particular sequence to respect. The same will
not be true for the fourth and fifth parameters, as well as the seventh param-
eter that deals with the fraction of duration of ETCs with respect to 7 Gy.
We now briefly describe the mathematical details related to the Drake equa-
tion and the Maccone method:

(a) We will address Drake’s first two parameters, Ns and np, without breaking
them down into further factors, but directly using what is now strongly
emerging from the large mass of experimental data at our disposal
(b) We will instead divide the process of the third parameter, fs , into nine
factors representing challenges to overcome, all referred to the single time
interval ΔT0 = 7 Gy (billion years) which is the duration of the last stellar
population
(c) We will then set, for each single challenge, the input data; namely the
minimum and maximum frequencies (fractions of overcoming the chal-
lenge) aj, bj of the random variable xj
(d) Using Maccone’s lognormal formula [65] Φ(x0), we will obtain, from
these single frequencies, the <x0 > average frequency of overall planetary
survival and the σ(X0) standard deviation from the overall average, of the
entire process in the period ΔT0
10 The Astronomical Parameters Ns, np and fs

(e) From the average frequency we will calculate the minimum and maxi-
mum value of the variable <x0 > with the formula derived from the log-
normal (Appendix D):

< x0 >min = x0 − 3 ⋅ σ ( x0 )

< x0 >max = x0 + 3 ⋅ σ ( x0 )

(f ) We will extend <x0>min and <x0>max , from the period ΔT0 of 7 Gy to any
period ∆T (according to the law of transformation of the challenge), thus
obtaining the final survival frequencies <x0>min/max(ΔT) of the stable plan-
ets as a function of time ∆T. To do this we set:

 ∆T
 m=
∆T0


 < X 0 >min ( ∆T ) = ( < x 0 >min ( ∆T0 ) )
m


< X 0 >max ( ∆T ) = ( < x 0 >max ( ∆T0 ) )
m




In this way, the new values <x0>min/max(ΔT) will be referred to the new time
∆T which is m times the time ΔT0. We observe that the expressions above can
be written in the more familiar exponential form.

 ∆T0
 τ ( min/max ) ≡ 1
 ln
 < x 0 >min/max

  ∆T 
 < X 0 >min ( ∆T ) = exp  − 
  τmin 

< X > ( ∆T ) = exp  − ∆T 
 0 max
 τmax 

 The Astronomical Parameters Ns, np and fs 11

Fig. I.1 Expected trend from the calculation of <x1>min/max as a function of ∆T with
tmed~2.5 Gy (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

The Fig. I.1 shown represents the expected trend from the calculation of
<X 0>min/max as a function of ∆T (an example was taken, tmed~2.5 Gy). As you
can see, the three values <X0>min , <X0>max and <X0>med have an exponentially
decreasing trend as a function of the reference duration ∆T. This result will be
useful later for determining the number of planets suitable for different levels
of life development.
 3
1st Drake: The Stellar Numerosity
of the Galactic Disk for K, G and F Spectral
Class Stars

Let’s start with the 1st Drake parameter, the stellar numerosity of the galaxy,
but also assign to the first parameter the scope of considering only the stars
today deemed suitable for the development of life, namely those of spectral
class K, G and F of the galactic disk [26] (Fig. 3.1).
The reason for this choice, in addition to balancing the computational
effort between the parameters, as anticipated in the introduction, also has a
mathematical advantage: if, for example, we now considered all the main
sequence stars of the Milky Way, we would have to say they are about between
2⋅1011 and 4⋅1011, or on average, 3⋅1011 with a very large deviation of 1011;
therefore, even if the underestimation/overestimation of the average value
would then be absorbed by the second parameter, the deviation from the aver-
age value would not, resulting in an unnecessarily large impact on the final
calculation of the Drake equation.
We must note that the exclusion of the numerous spectral class M (red
dwarfs with masses between 0.08 and 0.45 M☉ solar masses) from this com-
putation depends on the current belief that such solar systems are highly
unstable from the point of view of the star’s nuclear activity. Due to their slow
stellar evolution caused by their small mass, these stars present frequent and
lethal flares (ejection of stellar material in the vicinity of the star) for the entire
first part of the planets’ lifetimes [16]. The planets, in turn, for these stars have
synchronous rotations (they always face the same side towards the star) due to
the strong tidal forces in the habitable zone. These two factors, especially the
first, make this type of star unsuitable for hosting life for a long time, despite
the recent discoveries of wonderful planetary systems, apparently habitable,
around such stars.

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024 13

E. Mieli et al., The Living Galaxy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-67324-5_3
14 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 3.1 Hertzsprung-Russell diagram (original image by Richard Powell modified by

Helen Klus)

The same reasoning has been applied to the galactic center (bulge), consid-
ered too crowded and therefore subject to frequent violent phenomena, such
as supernovae or gamma-ray bursts, lethal for the development of life [69].
Based on these considerations, we analyze the data of Table 3.1, which
reports all stellar types divided by areas of the galaxy. It is clear that we are only
interested in F, G and K class stars belonging to the galactic disk: the sum of
these three sets is equal to 1.10⋅1010 stars. Despite the presence of three sig-
nificant figures in the mantissa, we prudentially assign an uncertainty of
±10% to the 1st Drake parameter, that is:
 3 1st Drake: The Stellar Numerosity of the Galactic Disk for K, G… 15

Table 3.1 1st Drake: stellar numerosity of the Milky Way divided by location and spec-
tral type
Core stars Disk stars Halo stars Primary
Spectral % stars 2.40⋅1010 3.79⋅1010 2.40⋅108 sequence stars
class Mass (M☉) disk M☉ M☉ M☉ 6.43⋅1010 M☉
O ≥16 10–5 % 8.57⋅101 1.35⋅102 (a) 2.21⋅102
B 2.1–16 0.13% 2.99⋅106 4.71⋅106 7.70⋅106
A 1.4–2.1 0.60% 6.40⋅107 1.01⋅108 1.65⋅108
F 1.04–1.4 3.00% 5.43⋅108 8.58⋅108 14.00⋅109
G 0.8–1.04 7.60% 1.97⋅109 3.11⋅109 5.09⋅109
K 0.45–0.8 12.10% 4.47⋅109 7.06⋅109 1.71⋅109 1.32⋅1010
M 0.08–0.45 76.45% 6.44⋅1010 1.02⋅1011 2.27⋅109 1.68⋅1011
Total predicted stars in the 7.14⋅1010 1.13⋅1011 3.97⋅109 1.88⋅1011
Milky Way
a
The production of new stars of these spectral classes in the halo ceased 10 billion years
ago and only small Population II stars are still in the main sequence. The others have
gone extinct (data taken from the site https://ilpoliedrico.com/2015/12/quante-­stelle-­ci-­
sono-­nella-­via-­lattea.html)

Drake 1
Ns min Ns max
1.0⋅1010 1.2⋅1010
 4
2nd Drake: Number of Planets per Star,
Suitable for Life in the Habitable Zone
(Spectral Class F, G and K)

The second parameter will also be directly estimated from the literature. In
this case, the 2020 work of Michelle Kunimoto and Jaymie M. Matthews,
which is based on an independent catalog of extrasolar planets compiled from
about 200,000 stars, directly provides the result we need [56] (Fig. 4.1).
For planets with sizes 0.75–1.5 R⊕ (Earth radii) in a conservatively defined
habitable zone (0.99–1.70 AU, astronomical units) around G-type stars,

Fig. 4.1 Showing in green the habitability zone or “Goldilocks zone”

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024 17

E. Mieli et al., The Living Galaxy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-67324-5_4
18 E. Mieli et al.

Kunimoto defines an average value of 0.18 planets per star with an uncer-
tainty of 10%. That is:

Drake 2
np min np max
0.16 0.20
 5
3rd Drake: Fraction of Stable Planets
for 7 Gy (Duration of the Stellar
Population)

With the third parameter, we finally enter the calculation by dividing the
process into several challenges (in this case 9) that the planet survives with a
certain minimum and maximum probability for each. The use of Maccone’s
formula [67] collects all the input data and provides the minimum and maxi-
mum values of the overall 3rd Drake parameter.
The nine challenges, which represent the astronomical dangers to which
the planet is subjected, are as follows:

1. Multiple star systems

2. Supernovae less than 40 ly away
3. Gamma bursts less than 5000 ly away
4. Super-flares of its own star
5. Transit of gas giants on inner orbits
6. Prolonged meteor bombardment
7. Instability of the rotation axis
8. Absence of the carbon cycle
9. Absence of the magnetic field

5.1 Challenge 1: Multiple Star Systems

Until a few years ago, the possibility of planets existing around multiple star
systems was considered residual. Today we have concrete evidence, the most
famous of which is the exoplanet Proxima Centauri b—a planet not belonging
to our solar system and also the nearest known exoplanet to us. Proxima

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024 19

E. Mieli et al., The Living Galaxy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-67324-5_5
20 E. Mieli et al.

Centauri, along with Alpha Centauri A and B, is even a triple star system:
Alpha Centauri A and B orbit around their common center of mass at a close
distance, while Proxima Centauri (a red dwarf of spectral class M5Ve, which
we will only take as an example here) orbits this pair at a much greater dis-
tance. The Proxima Centauri b planetary system is defined as a Type S plan-
etary system, meaning the planets orbit around an essentially isolated star
because it is very far from its companion(s) (in this case, the Alpha Centauri
pair). Systems of this type are quite common and do not preclude the forma-
tion of living forms, as each S-type system has its own habitable zone scarcely
influenced by the distant orbiting star.
On the contrary, the opposite case is that of the type P planetary systems,
called circumbinary, composed of a pair of stars orbiting closely together
with a planetary system orbiting at a much greater distance around the pair
(like the fictional planet Tatooine in Star Wars Episode IV from 1977). Such
systems have an ovoid habitable zone that follows the motion of the stellar
pair, making it ill-suited for stable planetary orbits. Therefore, we can reason-
ably exclude such systems from those capable of hosting life forms [100]
(Fig. 5.1).
In conclusion, we must exclude the number of multiple star systems with
tight orbital distances (which could potentially form circumbinary planetary
systems) from the total of F, G, and K spectral class stars. As indicated by
Charles J. Lada in the article “Stellar Multiplicity and the IMF: Most Stars

Fig. 5.1 P and S planetary systems

 5 3rd Drake: Fraction of Stable Planets for 7 Gy (Durati… 21

Are Single”, for stars with masses similar to the Sun, the study finds 56% are
single stars and 44% are double or multiple star systems. From this 44% of
multiple stars, we must estimate what fraction have orbits that are not widely
detached and could produce circumbinary systems—prudently between 10
and 30%. Therefore, the fraction of F, G, and K stars suitable for life is likely
between 70% (minimum frequency a1) and 90% (maximum frequency b1).

Challenge 1
a1 b1
0.7 0.9

5.2 Challenge 2: Supernovae Less Than 40 ly

Away (Safety Distance)
We can quickly estimate the risk factor due to supernovae through the follow-
ing considerations:

(A) From indirect evaluations, we estimate there are about three supernova
explosions per century in the Milky Way.
(B) Over the last 7 Gy of stellar population, the Milky Way has therefore
witnessed around 200 million supernova explosions, or roughly one for
every 1000 stars.

Assuming these 1000 stars are distributed uniformly in volume, the aver-
age distance from any given star to a supernova is about 10001/3 = 10 times
the average distance between stars in the galactic disk, which is around 5 ly
(light-years). Therefore, the average distance of a supernova from another star
is approximately 50 ly (Fig. 5.2),
Obviously, this is only an average value with occasional deviations. It’s esti-
mated that a supernova occurs within 50 ly of Earth every 250 million years,
potentially compromising part of the ozone layer with partially lethal effects
on the biosphere [14]. For these reasons, we have assigned a 70% probability,
with a 10% deviation, of a planetary system escaping danger due to a super-
nova explosion. In other words:

Challenge 2
a2 b2
0.6 0.8
22 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 5.2 Explosion of a supernova

5.3 Challenge 3: Gamma Bursts Less Than 5000

ly Away (Safety Distance)
The phenomenon of gamma-ray bursts has an extensive literature dedicated
to investigating their causes and potential effects on planets struck by these
immense events. It is estimated that they emit an energy equal to 1044–1045 J
(Joules) in just a few seconds, equivalent to the entire energy output of the
sun over its lifetime [116] (Fig. 5.3).
Being extremely powerful phenomena, gamma-ray bursts are detectable
even at the farthest observable limits of the universe. This characteristic aids
our task because, for this reason, without delving into the details of their
 5 3rd Drake: Fraction of Stable Planets for 7 Gy (Durati… 23

Fig. 5.3 Gamma-ray burst formed by two highly collimated jets moving in opposite
directions (European Southern Observatory)

nature and emission modes (isotropic or collimated beams), we can directly

make a statistical estimate from the observed number of such phenomena
recorded on Earth.

(A) About one gamma-ray burst is detected per day from the observable uni-
verse in the direction of Earth. Therefore, over the last 7 Gy stellar popu-
lation, there have been about 2.5⋅1012 gamma-ray bursts in our direction.
(B) There are approximately 1023 stars in the observable universe.
(C) Therefore, over the last stellar population there has been one gamma-ray
burst for every 4⋅1010 stars.
(D) The volume defined by the safety distance of 5000 ly = 5 ⋅ 103 ly from
the nearest gamma-ray burst is

( 5 ⋅ 10 )
3 3
= 125 ⋅ 109 ly 3

(E) The density of the galactic disk is approximately 53 = 125 ly3/star (1 star
per 125 cubic light-years).
(F) Therefore, within the 5000 light-year safety volume, there are 109 stars.
(G) This corresponds to an average of 109/4 ⋅ 1010 = 2.5 ⋅ 10−2 gamma-ray
bursts within the safety volume over the last stellar population—a very
low value. However, Melott hypothesized in 2003 that the Ordovician-­
Silurian mass extinction was due to a gamma-ray burst.
24 E. Mieli et al.

As in the previous case, we cautiously place ourselves slightly above this risk
margin, let’s say at 5⋅10–2 with a deviation of 5⋅10–2 to account for the great
uncertainty around these phenomena. The complementary value indicating
the probability of avoiding the gamma-ray burst risk is therefore:

Challenge 3
a3 b3
0.9 1.0

5.4 Challenge 4: Super-Flares from One’s

Own Star
We now move to consider the dangers coming directly from one’s own plan-
etary system. A stellar super-flare is commonly defined as a violent eruption of
matter exploding from a star’s surface, with energy equivalent to a million
times or more than that of typical solar flares (Fig. 5.4).
One characteristic of solar-type stars that have exhibited super-flares is that
they have faster rotation and higher magnetic activity than the Sun. It has
been hypothesized that such explosions are produced by the interaction of the
stellar magnetic field with that of a close-orbiting hot Jupiter (giant gaseous
planet); however, this theory lacks confirmation even after searching for hot
Jupiters around stars that have presented super-flare phenomena. In a 2012
study by Maehara [67], 83,000 sun-like stars were analyzed using data from
the Kepler space telescope, finding 365 super-flares originating from 148
stars, with an average duration of 12 h, over 120 days—at first glance, a sta-
tistically very high occurrence. But we ignore how these phenomena are dis-
tributed on the totality of the stars like the sun during all 7 Gy of the star
population; we only know that in 120 days 148 stars of 83,000 had a super-­
flare, but we don’t know if:

(a) Always the same 148 stars will present super-flares

(b) The super-flares are distributed evenly on all stars

The case (a) is probably closer to the truth. Let’s see why.
The 2012 work by Maehara [67] provides us with the following elements
on the number of superflares affecting solar-type stars, i.e., spectral class G:

N = 83,000 solar-type stars under examination

T = 120 d days of observation
 5 3rd Drake: Fraction of Stable Planets for 7 Gy (Durati… 25

Fig. 5.4 Super flare

n = 363 detected superflares

m = 148 stars affected by superflares
t = 12 h average duration of superflares in hours
p=? probability of superflares in time T  unknown to be found
α=? fraction of stars subject to superflares   unknown to be found

We made two crucial hypotheses to follow this reasoning:

1 The probability p of superflare is constant and does not explicitly depend

on time or on the occurrence of other superflares on the star in question
2 The stars are divided into only two categories A and B. Those that exhibit
superflares (A: fraction α) and those that do not exhibit the phenomenon
(B: fraction 1 − α)
26 E. Mieli et al.

We will have:



α ⋅ N ⋅ p = n

α ⋅ N ⋅ ( p + p + ) = (n − m)
2 3


 p 2 + p 3 +  =  p 
2

  1− p 

• The first of the three equations counts the total number of superflares based
on the probability p
• The second equation counts double, triple, etc. superflares, always based on
the probability p, knowing that only m = 148 stars were affected by the
phenomenon
• The third equation is simply the sum of the series of powers of p starting
from the second

Solving the system, we obtain:

 n−m
 p = 2n − m ≅ 0, 37

α = n ⋅ (2n − m) ≅ 1, 2 ⋅10−2
 N ⋅ ( n − m)

Where the value we are interested in is α = 1.2%, which tells us that the
fraction α of stars affected by superflares is very low, despite the high probabil-
ity p = 37% of superflares occurring on that fraction of stars. This would lead
us to a probability of overcoming this challenge close to 99%.
However, we observe that, even if the two conditions 1 and 2 were satisfied,
we cannot say that only 1.2% of stars are at risk because our observation
period T, equal to 120 days, is practically instantaneous compared to the stel-
lar generation period (7 Gy) and does not allow us to understand if, during
their evolution, stars can pass from state A to state B. For this reason, we must
remain cautious in evaluating the probability of overcoming this challenge by
assigning a probability between 0.5 and 0.7:
 5 3rd Drake: Fraction of Stable Planets for 7 Gy (Durati… 27

For this reason, the absence of associated mass extinctions suggests that no
super-flare from the Sun has occurred in the past. We therefore associate these
phenomena with an intermediate risk level and a consequent survival proba-
bility slightly above 50%:

Challenge 4
a4 b4
0.5 0.7

5.5 Challenge 5: Transit of Gas Giants

on Inner Orbits
Until the discovery of the first exoplanets, mathematical models of planetary
evolution enjoyed relative tranquility, being able to refer to the only known
example—our solar system. This scenario is as orderly as a museum hall, with
rocky and massive planets in the inner belt (but still not too close to the sun)
and gas giants in the outer belt; there is even a transition zone, the asteroid
belt, which, as predicted, could not aggregate into a planet due to the immense
gravity of nearby Jupiter (Fig. 5.5).
Then we began receiving the first data on observed exoplanets and realized
that our orderly solar system is an exception, and instead most planetary sys-
tems are totally chaotic—like a teenager’s room: gas giants at ridiculous dis-
tances from their stars, 0.05 AU or even less; gigantic super Earths with tens
of Earth masses positioned haphazardly in relation to other planetary masses.
In short, we had to revise everything and correct our models taking into
account the new data. It seems planetary systems are intrinsically unstable and
only rarely remain in their natural positions, if such positions exist, as hap-
pened in our system.
In this situation, however, one thing is certain: the presence of a nearby gas
giant disturbs, with its large mass, if not the formation of other planets (as in
the asteroid belt case) certainly the trajectory of transiting meteoritic objects
that would be dangerously attracted to inner orbits close to rocky planets in
the habitable zone.
Through exoplanet observations we can affirm that such an event is not rare
[47]. However, we should not fall into the trap of considering the statistics
collected from exoplanets as directly relatable to the galactic planetary reality,
since some types of planets, the hot Jupiters indeed, are those most easily
28 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 5.5 Hot Jovian planet in tight orbit around the star (NASA, ESA and A. Schaller
(for STScI))

observable both with the transit method and radial velocity method, which
are most commonly used. For this reason, we will give the transit of gas giants
on inner orbits an average probability of 20% with a deviation of 10%; which,
compared to the complementary probability of life surviving on a planet in
the habitable zone, translates into the following values:

Challenge 5
a5 b5
0.7 0.9
 5 3rd Drake: Fraction of Stable Planets for 7 Gy (Durati… 29

5.6 Challenge 6: Prolonged

Meteoric Bombardment
There would be no reason to think that the typical meteoric bombardment
accompanying the formation of rocky planets should prolong much beyond
the initial phases of the planet’s life [37], especially if we have already excluded
the nearby presence of gas giants that can attract objects of various sizes from
outer asteroid belts (for the solar system, the Kuiper belt and Oort cloud)
(Fig. 5.6).
However, as we have seen, the solar system is not a typical example of a
planetary system, so we cannot exclude that, for example, a particular arrange-
ment of super Earths in or near the habitable zone can determine gravitational
resonance phenomena with possible asteroid belts. We do not have experi-
mental evidence in this regard, however, we want to give a statistical weight,
even if low, to this potential risk:

Challenge 6
a6 b6
0.8 1.0

Fig. 5.6 Impact of meteorites on a rocky planet (NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center
Conceptual Image Lab)
30 E. Mieli et al.

5.7 Challenge 7: Instability of the Rotation Axis

Normally, the rotational axes of planets do not have a stable inclination, but
vary chaotically due to interactions between their orbits. Typical variability
periods are on the order of a few million years (see Mars) and the oscillation
intervals are very large (60–90°). Earth does not have this characteristic
because its large satellite, the Moon, acts as a natural stabilizer of the axial
inclination, except for minor variations [101] (Fig. 5.7).
But how important is this characteristic for the development of life? Given
the massive climate impacts that would result from a chaotic inclination of a
planet’s axis, it is plausible that such a situation, would not completely pre-
vent life from arising, but would constrain its evolution to the most resilient
and primitive forms.
Even though data related to the presence of exomoons (satellites of exoplan-
ets) in the planetary systems being discovered daily are currently completely
absent, in this case it is not wrong to imagine that, predominantly, large
moons are a characteristic of gas giants and not smaller rocky planets.
Therefore, a situation like Earth’s is likely rare. As a result, the following sur-
vival values emerge for this challenge:

Challenge 7
a7 b7
0.1 0.3

Fig. 5.7 Different inclinations with respect to the plane of revolution (which is
assumed to be horizontal in the figure) of the rotation axes of the planets
 5 3rd Drake: Fraction of Stable Planets for 7 Gy (Durati… 31

5.8 Challenge 8: Absence of the Carbon Cycle

The stability of temperature is not maintained solely by a stable and not exces-
sive axial tilt, but also by appropriate mechanisms for eliminating and restor-
ing greenhouse gases in the planet’s atmosphere, particularly CO2. On Earth,
an effective natural thermostat is the so-called carbon cycle—the dynamic
interchange between the geosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and atmosphere
through chemical, physical, geological and biological processes [55]. In sum-
mary, the Earth’s carbon cycle thermostat mechanism works as follows
(Fig. 5.8):

Fig. 5.8 Diagram of the carbon cycle in the terrestrial environment

32 E. Mieli et al.

Carbon Capture Cycle as CO2:

(a) The planet is initially in the habitable zone with liquid water and average
temperatures around 20 °C
(b) Volcanism (or animal activity or other sources) enriches the atmosphere
with CO2, causing an initial imbalance
(c) The CO2 increases the planet’s temperature
(d) The thermal increase intensifies evaporation of seas and resulting rainfall
(e) The rains absorb the excess CO2 and return it to the oceans
(f ) The carbon present in the CO2 precipitates on the seabed
(g) Subduction phenomena (sliding of one tectonic plate under another)
return the carbon to the geosphere

Carbon Restoration Cycle as CO2:

(h) The atmosphere poor in CO2 does not retain heat and the planet cools
(glaciation)
(i) Volcanism restores CO2 without causing further rains as long as tempera-
ture remains low
(j) Temperature increases due to the greenhouse gas effect and returns to
starting levels (point a)

It’s thought that Earth’s carbon cycle has been active since the planet’s for-
mation, though the specific methods have varied over time. Clearly, the main
driver of this mechanism is geothermal activity working in combination with
the other three components. Therefore, the essential condition for a thermally
stabilized planet is active plate tectonics—movement of plates relative to
each other.
Paradoxically, the planets that have this characteristic are moderately-sized
rocky ones, not the smallest rocky planets. The reason is that smaller plan-
ets—half Earth’s size, for example—have greater thermal dissipation and
therefore exhaust their internal heat supply earlier. At that point, the planet
cools, the crust solidifies uniformly and geological activity stops, along with
the carbon cycle. This is what happened to Mars which, in addition to insuf-
ficient gravity to retain a dense atmosphere, lacks a carbon cycle to maintain
temperature in the habitable zone.
On the contrary, the recently discovered so-called super Earths—a rich class
of rocky planets equal to or larger than Earth in size—would be excellent
candidates in this respect, likely having more active plate tectonics than Earth.
 5 3rd Drake: Fraction of Stable Planets for 7 Gy (Durati… 33

Recently, a theoretical model has been developed that predicts whether a car-
bon cycle is present on exoplanets, given the mass, core size and amount of
CO2. In any case, super Earths are very common, ensuring that the risk of not
finding geologically active planets is quite low. So let’s assume:

Challenge 8
a8 b8
0.7 0.9

5.9 Challenge 9: Absence of the Planetary

Magnetic Field
There is another problematic and still little-studied aspect: the analysis of the
deep interiors of planets and their magnetic fields. We know that the mag-
netic field shields a planet from stellar winds of charged particles, and is there-
fore as necessary for life as the ozone layer is for blocking ultraviolet radiation
(Fig. 5.9).
In the case of super Earths, a 2021 study conducted by the Earth and
Planets Laboratory at the Carnegie Institution for Science [28], a private sci-
entific institute based in Washington D.C., simulated extreme pressures

Fig. 5.9 Deviation of charged stellar particles by the planetary magnetic field (ESA/
NASA/SOHO/LASCO/EIT)
34 E. Mieli et al.

exerted on magnesium silicate to better understand the interior dynamics,

particularly of the mantle, of rocky exoplanets most similar to Earth. The goal
was to discover if such planets can generate a magnetic field similar to Earth’s
and therefore host life.
The conclusions are nuanced: in some geological scenarios, super Earths
could indeed generate an Earth-like geodynamo early in their evolution, but
then lose it over billions of years as cooling slows down the dynamo action. A
resurgence of magnetic activity could potentially be triggered by the move-
ment of lighter elements during inner core crystallization.
Given this uncertain situation, we think it reasonable to assign a 50%
probability to this challenge of super Earths maintaining magnetic fields con-
ducive for life over long timescales:

Challenge 9
a9 b9
0.4 0.6

5.10 The Calculation of the Third Parameter

from the Nine Challenges
In conclusion, we have obtained for the 3rd Drake parameter, over the time
span of the entire stellar population 7 billion years (Table 5.1, Fig. 5.10):

Table 5.1 3rd Drake: input data insertion aj, bj and ∆T0 in the lognormal formula. The
light gray shows the intermediate calculations of the logarithmic mean and logarith-
mic variance
aj bj μj σ2j ∆T0 μ σ2 <X0> fs min fs max
1 0.70 0.90 –0.2258 0.0052 7Gy –4.07 0.15 1.84% 0.58% 3.11%
2 0.60 0.80 –0.3601 0.0069
3 0.90 1.00 –0.0518 0.0009
4 0.50 0.70 –0.5155 0.0094
5 0.70 0.90 –0.2258 0.0052
6 0.80 1.00 –0.1074 0.0041
7 0.10 0.30 –1.6547 0.0948
8 0.70 0.90 –0.2258 0.0052
9 0.40 0.60 –0.6999 0.0136
 5 3rd Drake: Fraction of Stable Planets for 7 Gy (Durati… 35

Fig. 5.10 3rd Drake: trend of the lognormal curve for the nine input values. The aver-
age value found for the third parameter is therefore about 1.9% (between 0.6 and
3.1%) (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

Drake 3
fs min fs max
5.8⋅10–3 3.1⋅10–2
 6
Considerations on the First Three
Parameters

At this point we can insert precise values into the formula for the final survival
frequencies fs(min/max)(ΔT) of stable planets as a function of stability time ∆T.
Or:

⎛ ΔT0
| τ ( min / max ) ≡ 1
| ln
| f s min / max
|
| ⎧ ΔT ⎫
{ f s min ( ΔT ) = exp | - |
| ⎩ τmin ⎭
|
|f s max ( ΔT ) = exp ⎧| - ΔT ⎫|
| ⎩ τmax ⎭
|
⎩

Which in our case will be (also adding τmed):

τ min = 1, 359, 230, 076 years

τ max = 2, 016,147, 681 years
τ med = 1, 752, 672, 805 years

The Fig. 6.1a shows the trend of the probability of planetary stability as a
function of time ∆T throughout the arc of the stellar population of 7 Gy. The
Fig. 6.1b, instead, is nothing more than the probability of habitability at the
present time obtained by multiplying the previous value by ∆T/7Gy. These

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38 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 6.1 (a) 3rd Drake: calculated trend of the habitability probability fs min/max as a
function of ΔT with τmed = 1.75 Gy calculated (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone). (b)
3rd Drake: current habitability probability Fs min /max ≡ fs min /max ⋅ ΔT/7Gy (IJA 14/06/2023
Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

trends, together with the remaining Drake parameters, will be useful in our
subsequent discussion to count the planets at different levels of development
of life and of extraterrestrial civilizations.
For the 3rd Drake parameter we found that, despite the significant screen-
ing carried out with the first two parameters for stars and planets suitable for
 6 Considerations on the First Three Parameters 39

the development of life, the curve of planetary stability fs(∆T) of the third
parameter drops quickly to zero. In the case of systems of stable duration of at
least 7 Gy, such as to allow with reasonable certainty the development of
intelligent civilizations, the value of the probability fs drops to 1.84% which
is a decidedly modest value.
 Part II
Drake’s Biological Parameters: fl and fi

It goes without saying that the mathematical approach to the so-called

­biological parameters, the fourth and fifth, will necessarily be more complex
than the first three parameters. The reason is that biological and evolutionary
processes almost always must follow a rigid sequence under delicate environ-
mental conditions (Fig. II.1).
To statistically simulate such a scenario by dividing it into phases (we will
call them this instead of challenges, as done previously, because they are now

Fig. II.1 Fourth sequence of phases j that constitute the biological parameters with
associated times ΔTj and probabilities pj
42 Drake’s Biological Parameters: fl and fi

covariant with time, meaning they increase with the duration of each phase)
using Maccone’s lognormal distribution, we will proceed as follows:

(A) We will divide the phenomenon (with the associated parameter, e.g. the
fourth parameter for the appearance of life) into n appropriate stages.
(B) We will set observation time intervals ∆Tj corresponding to each stage j,
and the related maximum and minimum frequencies aj and bj (relative
to the random variable xj) for realizing that stage.
(C) We will define maximum time intervals ∆T0j of microcatastrophe for
each stage j, i.e. the times beyond which environmental conditions
change and effectively prevent realization of that stage.
(D) We will transform all frequencies aj and bj into their corresponding Aj
and Bj (random variable Xj) related to the microcatastrophe times ∆T0j.
(E) We will add up all the times ∆T0j obtaining the order of magnitude of
the duration of the entire process of the n stages equal to ∆T0.
(F) We will calculate the mean <X0> and standard deviation σ(X0) of the
phenomenon formed by the n temporally homogeneous stages, through
Maccone’s lognormal distribution Φ(X0) referred to time ∆T0, conse-
quently obtaining <X0>min and <X0>max.
(G) We will define a maximum macrocatastrophe time interval ΔT for all
stages, i.e. the observation time beyond which large planetary events
occur that prevent realization of the entire n-stage sequence (e.g. mass
extinction events).
(H) We will transform <X0>min and <X0>max into their values fmin and fmax,
related to the macrocatastrophe time ΔT, which will be the fourth and
fifth parameters of the final calculated Drake equation.

Once a phase or cycle is completed, catastrophic events are no longer lethal

for that phase or cycle itself. An example is anomalous storm surges (case of
microcatastrophes) that periodically, e.g. every 10 years, hit quiet lagoon envi-
ronments, causing a sudden dilution of lipid pockets. In this case, the pocket
concentration drops below the limit level of n = 108/m3 and, as we will see,
this blocks Ageno’s proposed process of remixing pocket contents, delaying its
realization beyond 30 years until after the next storm surge. However, if the
reaction occurs before the 10-year limit time, it obviously also persists through
the onset of the storm surge. Another example is the great mass extinctions
(case of macrocatastrophes) that have reduced, but not eliminated, life on
the planet.
Therefore, the different phases exhibit a certain resilience to traumas fol-
lowing their completion.
 7
4th Drake: The Transition from Non-living
to Living

The origin of life and its possible occurrence beyond our planet constitute one
of the most exciting challenges facing modern science. It is not merely a mat-
ter of formulating a consistent hypothesis on the transition from non-living
to living matter, which is itself a profound problem. We must also assess the
possibility that such a process can occur elsewhere in the Universe and with
what probability.
Many hypotheses and theories on the origin of life have been proposed in
the past [33, 52]. However, the currently most well-known and accredited is
that put forth by British biochemist Nick Lane [59]. He began with the idea
that all living beings possess six specific characteristics: (1) a carbon source, (2)
an energy source (the same or different from the first) to power metabolic
processes (i.e. all growth and functioning of the organism), (3) catalysts (spe-
cific molecules with defined tasks) suitable for promoting chemical reactions,
(4) the ability to expel waste (i.e. harmful byproducts of cellular processes),
(5) compartmentalization (separation between interior and exterior environ-
ments), and (6) the presence of heritable material. It is easy to recognize in
these activities the basic functions of a simple prokaryotic cell (without a
nucleus or organelles) such as a bacterium.
Lane situates this process in alkaline hydrothermal vents [15], where, by
exploiting differences in pH (i.e. acidity, the percentage of H+ ions in solu-
tion) between oceanic waters, the chemical processes are very similar in both
polarity and quantity to those occurring in autotrophic living cells—those
capable of directly producing organic matter like plants, without having to
source it from the environment [102]. His ideas are compelling: they inte-
grate all recent discoveries and even allow explaining how the structural and

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44 E. Mieli et al.

evolutionary differences between bacteria and archaea could have arisen

through subsequent environmental specialization from a common ancestor—
the famous LUCA (Last Universal Common Ancestor) of all current life on
Earth [32]. However, while correctly criticizing other theories which must be
accounted for, his hypothesis presents a significant gap. If the synthesis of
biological molecules, as well as oligomerization (production of short molecule
sequences) is possible in hydrothermal systems, the issue of nucleic acid poly-
mers (fundamental molecules for transmitting genetic information and pro-
ducing proteins) remains. In fact, under appropriate laboratory conditions
mimicking alkaline hydrothermal vents, only suitably activated adenine man-
ages to form short filaments of a few units. Non-­activated adenine (AMP),
instead, at most produces only dimers, while the other nucleotides do not
polymerize [10]. In short, the molecules responsible for hereditary transmis-
sion, such as DNA, would have difficulty forming according to Lane’s model.
For this reason, in this context, we will consider the hypothesis advanced
by the Italian physicist Mario Ageno [2] in the first half of the 1990s. Although
some of the processes hypothesized by Ageno still await experimental verifica-
tion, they can theoretically allow for the production of triphosphate nucleo-
tides—the active forms capable of reacting and forming nucleic acids (DNA,
RNA, and hybrid segments). Moreover, triphosphate nucleotides, particularly
ATP, are the main molecules that act as biological batteries, enabling biologi-
cal chemical reactions.
As we will see, Ageno supposed that the first living beings were photosyn-
thetic, because the only unlimited and omnipresent source of energy available
on the face of the Earth, at least up to a certain marine depth, was provided
by the Sun. The importance of electromagnetic radiation for present and past
life is no longer in question, and photosynthesis carried out by green plants
and cyanobacteria is the only process that allows the accumulation of free
oxygen in the environment. It is therefore the only process that ultimately
creates a barrier—the ozone layer—to the ionizing electromagnetic energy
that reaches a planet’s surface from space [57]. Consequently, in the absence
of photosynthetic beings capable of releasing oxygen, the ozone layer does not
develop in the atmosphere. Without an ozone layer, water is completely
decomposed into its elementary compounds over time, eliminating one of the
indispensable resources for life.
Therefore, without photosynthesis, the situation that occurred on Venus is
determined, where the oceans have all been consumed by such a process. We
thus arrive at the paradox that if living organisms capable of producing oxy-
gen through photosynthesis do not form or are not themselves the first living
beings, the life thus created fails to sustain itself and quickly vanishes.
 7 4th Drake: The Transition from Non-living to Living 45

For these reasons, we consider Ageno’s hypothesis currently the most plau-
sible to explain the necessary steps to evolve stable forms of life on a planet.
Therefore, this will be the guiding thread that we will follow to evaluate the
numerical variables to be used in the calculations of Maccone’s algorithm, in
the absence of new discoveries that cast doubt on its effectiveness.
 8
The Theory of Mario Ageno

Ageno began by specifying his definition of a living being. For Ageno, a living
being is an open chemical system (that is, a system in which chemical pro-
cesses occur and which can exchange energy and materials), coherent (where
the processes are ordered in space and time), and equipped with a program
(possessing a “conductor”, the DNA, which establishes what to do and when).
Although the author stated that this is One possible definition for recognizing
all terrestrial life forms rather than The definitive definition, based on his con-
cept, it is easy to realize that the foundation of his idea of a living being is the
biological cell, as for most modern specialists (see the previous discussion
about Lane).
Building on these foundations, Ageno developed a hypothesis consisting of
a series of stages, where the transition from one stage to the next was consid-
ered to occur with an almost certain probability (in a practically automatic
manner). Only through such a process could the transition from non-living
to living arise, given very precise initial conditions. The starting idea origi-
nated from the classic prebiotic broth and lipid sacs or lipid vescicles (bubble-­
like structures enclosed by molecules composed of fatty acids, hypothesized to
transform into protocells) formed in a particular environment—the shallow
substrate between 10 and 20 m deep in a lagoon—ultimately leading to the
formation of living cells.
Despite sharing the initial premise with other previous theories, Ageno
introduced two important innovations that made his hypothesis much more
credible than previous claims. Exploiting the properties of the components of
lipid sacs, which can merge and split without mixing their contents with the
external environment, Ageno emphasized that one did not have to track the

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48 E. Mieli et al.

fate of a Single sac. Instead, the system capable of evolving into a living being
was constituted by the collective Set of All the lipid sacs present in the lagoon.
If a particular reaction occurred in a certain sac, following random collisions
between sacs, the product could transfer to another sac, inside which the next
reaction could then take place. This greatly increased the probability of the
entire process unfolding.
Ageno’s second hypothesis consisted of the mechanism providing energy
for the system to function. According to Ageno, the energy came from a sim-
plified version of the photosynthesis of green plants: a lipid sac would trap
chlorophyll pigments capable of becoming excited by photons and losing
electrons along a simple redox chain (a series of processes describing the trans-
fer of electrons from one chemical species to another), embedded in the mem-
brane thickness and comprising a molecule with carbon-carbon double bonds.
This would transfer protons H+ inside the sacs, making the system acidic. The
acidity would have favoured the maintenance of polyphosphates, including
biological energy batteries, molecules such as ATP, and the formation of cer-
tain chains of organic molecules such as oligonucleotides (simple strands of
DNA, RNA and/or nucleotides and other molecules such as amino acids)
from the precursors present in the prebiotic broth. This would be the first step
towards the formation of all the chemical processes that characterize liv-
ing beings.
In response to objections that the photosynthesis of green plants, whose
chlorophyll receives electrons directly from water, requires a complicated
apparatus (including two photosynthetic pigments) and therefore cannot be
considered primitive, Ageno replies that what is simpler is not necessarily
older: a simple apparatus may be a localized adaptation of a system that was
originally more complex. Recently, some studies are emphasizing the impor-
tance of photosynthesis for all phenomena related to life on our planet.
Let’s now formalize mathematically the statement about collisions between
lipid vesicles. We know that in a system of particles (our protocells) with
cross-section s and density n per cubic meter, the mean free path (average
distance traveled without collisions) is:

λ = 1 / (n ⋅ s)

Therefore, defining v as the relative speed between particles, the average time
between successive collisions will be:

t = λ / v = 1 / (n ⋅ s ⋅ v)
 8 The Theory of Mario Ageno 49

t is interpretable as the first reshuffling time of the lipid vesicles. Knowing that:

s ~ 10−12 m 2
v ~ 10−5 m / s,

it follows that:

t ~ 1017 / n

The latter value needs to be carefully controlled because concentrations less

than n = 108 particles/ m3 would produce reshuffling times greater than 30
years, which could be too long in certain variable and traumatic conditions
hosting the protocells. However, it is also true that for a modest production of
lipids distributed on the sea surface, for each m2 of lipids there could be about
1012 lipid vesicles which, at a maximum depth of about ten meters (allowing
solar energy penetration as we will see), would determine n = 1011. This is
reassuring since in this case the reshuffling time would be t = 106 s, or about
10 days.
We will see later how marine meteorological agents, periodically interfering
with the concentration of lipid pockets, often cause real temporal barriers
(microcatastrophes) for reactions inside the pockets to be realized.
 9
The Calculation of the Fourth Parameter fl

We report the entire calculation process in Fig. 9.1, now describing the steps
in detail:
Step 1: This initial step assigns frequencies starting from known or compa-
rable data: each phase j represents a necessary process for life’s development
associated with a random variable xj (fraction or frequency) to be estimated
within the maximum and minimum values aj and bj over the observation time
∆Tj. The phase must be realized within a microcatastrophe time limit ∆T0j,
beyond which it consolidates. Ultimately, the four input values aj, bj, ∆Tj and
∆T0j must be provided for each phase.
Step 2: In this step, the assigned frequencies are each remodulated within
their time limit ∆T0j through the time covariant transformation:

X j ( m j ) = 1 – (1 – x j )
mj

This transforms the frequency xj of an event, related to ∆Tj, into the fre-
quency Xj related to an interval ∆T0j which is mj times larger, where mj = ΔT0j/
ΔTj. If xj is the single trial success probability, Xj is the consecutive mj trials
success probability. The same applies to minimum/maximum frequencies aj,
bj transformed into Aj, Bj. The sum of all ∆T0j gives the overall medium-term
time ∆T0 for the entire process:

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52 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 9.1 4th Drake—from step 1 to step 4 the information on the individual processes
in the short term give rise to the probability in the medium and long term (IJA
14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

∆T0 = Σ j ∆T0 j

Step 3: In the medium-term, phase frequencies Xj being temporally homoge-

neous, can be multiplied together, as per Drake’s formula, to obtain the new
medium-term variable X0 whose distribution is calculated with the Maccone
lognormal:

( ln ( X0 ) − µ )
2

1 1 −
Φ ( X0 ) = ⋅
2
2σ
e
X 0 2πσ

where μ and σ are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of X0,
while <X0> and σ(X0) are the mean and standard deviation of X0.
Step 4: Similarly to step 2, the obtained frequency <X0> is remodulated in
the macrocatastrophe time limit ∆T through the same covariant algorithm:

fl ( n ) = 1 − (1 − X 0 )
n

where n = ΔT/ΔT0
The two deviations from the mean X 0 ± 3 σ ( X 0 ) give rise to fl min
and fl max, derived from Maccone’s lognormal formula (Appendix D).
 9 The Calculation of the Fourth Parameter fl 53

In conclusion, providing the four input values aj, bj, ∆Tj and ∆T0j for
each phase, the final probability fl, between the minimum and maximum
values, fl min and fl max over time ∆T is obtained.
 10
The Transition from Non-living to Living,
Phase by Phase

The phenomenon of the onset of life linked to the parameter fl, has been
divided into ten phases, identified below:

1. The abiotic synthesis of biological molecules

2. The concentration of the primordial broth
3. The formation of lipid sacs
4. The inclusion of chlorophyll in lipid membranes
5. The “proton photopump”
6. The formation of nucleic acid filaments
7. The catalytic role of RNA
8. Determination of roles
9. Formation of the cell membrane
10. Emergence of the genetic code

10.1 The Starting Point; the Habitable Planet

The basic conditions for developing the transition from non-living to living
on an Earth-like planet, as outlined in the first three Drake parameters, are
summarized below:

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56 E. Mieli et al.

(a) The planet must be rocky and not gaseous, like the inner solar system
planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars.
(b) It must be at an appropriate distance from its star to allow liquid water to
exist on the planet’s surface. Water is indispensable for life as we know it,
serving as the preferred solvent for metabolic processes.
(c) The planet’s gravity must be sufficient to retain an atmosphere that acts as
a protective shield against cosmic rays and ultraviolet radiation. The con-
ditions described above are continuously monitored and catalogued on
thousands of exoplanets that have been detected since the second half of
the 1990s.
(d) The atmosphere should not be oxidizing like Earth’s current atmosphere,
but rather devoid of free oxygen (O2). The stable, significant presence of
O2 results from photosynthetic processes of living organisms. While water
can be split into hydrogen and oxygen by electromagnetic radiation, pro-
ducing trace amounts of O2, any oxygen produced tends to quickly oxi-
dize with molecules in the environment. Therefore, a celestial body
without living beings is believed to have an atmosphere lacking free oxy-
gen or containing only trace amounts.
(e) Finally, the planet must have geothermal activity, with internal heat mov-
ing towards and being released at the surface through phenomena like
volcanism and hydrothermal vents [103] (Fig. 10.1).

Fig. 10.1 Eo-Archean environment (about 4–3.6 Gy)

With this background established, we can now look in more detail at the vari-
ous phases of the process transitioning from non-living to living conditions.
 10 The Transition from Non-living to Living, Phase by Phase 57

10.2 The First Phase; the Abiological Synthesis

of Biological Molecules
To initiate the process, the abiotic synthesis of biological molecules and/or
their precursors is essential. It is now known that under appropriate condi-
tions (presence of energy and suitable chemical precursors) and in the pres-
ence of a reducing atmosphere, simple organic molecules like lipids, amino
acids, nucleotides (Fig. 10.2), hydrocarbons and others can be produced
[79, 91].
While the early Earth did not have a completely reducing atmosphere, it
was devoid of free oxygen. On a planet with the listed characteristics, organic
compounds can derive from meteoritic contributions of molecules produced
in space (during the Archean eon between 4 and 2.5 billion years ago, hun-
dreds of thousands of meteorites fell on Earth) and from synthesis in hydro-
thermal vents [77]. It is undeniable that such a planet can contain organic
molecules.
To estimate the minimum and maximum frequency of biological molecule
formation, the slower and less probable of the two described phenomena—
meteoritic impacts—is taken as reference. During the Hadean and Archean,
the meteorite impact frequency on Earth was significant. Recent work by
Takeuchi and collaborators [120] quantifies around 1020 kg of meteorites
arriving in that period—a huge value (the terrestrial mass is about 6 ⋅ 1024 kg)
amply justifying the presence of the molecules in question.

Fig. 10.2 Some of the biological molecules necessary for life: in the box on the left, 5
of the 20 fundamental amino acids (at the top, from left to right, Alanine, Leucine,
Glutamine; at the bottom, from left to right, Tryptophan, Asparagine); on the left, the
monophosphate nucleotide obtained with the Guanine (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli,
Maccone)
58 E. Mieli et al.

We hypothesize that the distribution of meteoritic biological molecules

affected between 90% (value a1) and 100% (value b1) of the planet over an
observation time ∆T1 of about 1,000,000 years. Furthermore, we will keep
the maximum ∆T01 (microcatastrophe time of phase 1) equal to 1,000,000
years, considering the existence conditions of hydrothermal vents likely have
a limit value of that order of magnitude.

Phase 1
a1 b1 ∆T1 ∆T01
0.9 1.0 1,000,000 1,000,000

10.3 The Second Phase; the Concentration

of the Primordial Broth
Ageno situates the evolution of his system in a particular environment: the
bottom of a sheltered lagoon, at a depth between 10 and 20 m. Beyond the
details, what is important to underline is that the concentration of organic
compounds must be consistent with a depth at which harmful electromag-
netic rays (those too energetic, capable, that is, of destroying biological mol-
ecules and altering chemical reactions) are absorbed by the liquid, but such
that that part of the spectrum used for photosynthesis is still accessible. The
depth, therefore, depends on the particular composition of the atmosphere
and the intensity of the light that reaches the surface of the planet (Fig. 10.3).
How realistic is this picture? In a completely sterile environment (total
absence of living forms) it is difficult to imagine phenomena capable of alter-
ing and destroying molecules, beyond ultraviolet (UV) rays and other ener-
getic electromagnetic radiations which, however, are absorbed by water
molecules beyond a certain depth. Moreover, if we add the proximity to an
alkaline hydrothermal source, we can be sure of having secured a regular sup-
ply of organic material.
Studies related to hydrothermal sources show that, if the majority of them
are located between 2000 and 3000 m below sea level, they are actually also
abundant in subaerial environments at various other depths. And this was
likely the case in the past as well. We can therefore consider that during the
Archean, alkaline hydrothermal sources were present and widespread on
our planet.
To estimate the probability of the presence of biological molecules in alka-
line hydrothermal sources we will take a minimum frequency equal to 5%
 10 The Transition from Non-living to Living, Phase by Phase 59

Fig. 10.3 Sheltered lagoons that favor the concentration of the primordial broth
(Ram Krishnamurthy—Center for Chemical Evolution—Scripps Research Institute)

and a maximum equal to 15%. These values are suggested by the distribution
of lagoons with such depth characteristics over a release time of about 100
years. The maximum lifespan of lagoons in such optimal conditions is esti-
mated at 10,000 years.

Phase 2
a2 b2 ∆T2 ∆T02
0.05 0.15 100 10,000

10.4 The Third Phase; the Formation

of Lipidic Vesicles
Among the organic molecules present in the defined environment, some par-
ticular fatty acids stand out: lipids with a polar head and a hydrophobic tail.
These compounds are able to form double-layered molecular layers on the
surface (Figs. 10.4, top and 10.5) and, when immersed in water, double-­
walled pouches (Figs. 10.4, sides and 10.5) in which the polar ends of the
molecules are in contact with the water while the hydrophobic ends (which
60 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 10.4 Above, double-thickness surface layer; on the sides double-walled lipid ves-
icles; in the center, fusion of two lipid vesicles (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

Fig. 10.5 Section of a lipid vesicle with a double-thickness surface (CNX

OpenStax)

do not like this liquid) face each other in the center of the wall thickness.
These molecules are among the main components of organic membranes,
particularly those of cells that make up all living beings.
The double-walled lipid pouches thus formed are able to fuse (Fig. 10.4,
center), upon collision, and to split in two if the volume of one is excessive,
without mixing their content with the external environment. In this way, it is
possible to divide our system into two distinct spaces, the external one of the
lagoon and the internal one, which, as we have seen, statistically includes the
space in All the present pouches.
The pouches formed in the lagoon can incorporate some of the abiotically
synthesized organic material. If a certain compound is present inside a pouch,
 10 The Transition from Non-living to Living, Phase by Phase 61

due to the processes described, it can at a certain moment come into contact
with another, initially produced in a different pouch, and react with it. In fact,
due to the fusions and separations, the internal environment is unique and
any molecule can sooner or later interact with the others.
The formation and dynamics of the vesicles depend on the lipid concentra-
tion and physical characteristics of the liquid (water) in which they are
immersed. Since lipids can be easily synthesized in hydrothermal sources, they
must have been relatively abundant. At this point, given their behavior, the
formation of lipid bilayers and vesicles was relatively probable and rapid: we
set the frequency between 0.9 and 1 in the equally rapid time of 0.1 years. The
time limit, or environmental crises capable of destroying the system, were
extreme climatic events disturbing the lagoon tranquility, estimated at about
10 years.

Phase 3
a3 b3 ∆T3 ∆T03
0.9 1.0 0.1 10

10.5 The Fourth Phase; the Inclusion

of Chlorophyll in Lipid Membranes
The prebiotic broth did not only contain amino acids, nucleotides or lipids.
Abiotic synthesis also allowed for obtaining other types of molecules, more or
less simple. For example, laboratory experiments like Miller’s have demon-
strated the abiotic synthesis of chlorophyll, a pigment that allows green plants
and cyanobacteria to perform photosynthesis by exploiting electrons sub-
tracted from water molecules [23]. Although complex, this molecule could be
very ancient: fossils of organisms capable of photosynthesis like green plants
have been found in 3.5 billion year old Australian sedimentary layers [97].
Chlorophyll is a pigment (molecule) that can get excited if stimulated by
photons of a suitable wavelength. The excitation causes the loss of one or
more electrons that begin to travel a redox chain (a series of electron transfer
processes between chemical species), formed by several molecules contained
in the photosynthesizing membrane thickness. Among these, the quinones
stand out, particular molecules that, by reducing (accepting electrons), must
bind to an equal number of protons (H+). One peculiarity of these molecules
is that they possess alternating double bonds responsible for this
characteristic.
62 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 10.6 The trapping of chlorophyll and other components of the redox chain in the
membrane

The simplest alternating double bond molecule, therefore having quinone

properties, is much simpler than many other abiogenic synthesis compounds.
Therefore, examples of this substance were likely present in the prebiotic
broth. Since certain quinones are liposoluble, capable of mixing with fats
especially in biological processes, some could have been “trapped” in the
membrane thickness of lipid sacs formed in the prebiotic broth, preserving
their essential redox chain property: the reversible reduction accompanied by
reversible proton acceptance. If the temperature was not too low, such mole-
cules could move within the lipid membrane like a two-dimensional liquid,
like the quinones of photosynthetic systems.
The trapping of chlorophyll (Fig. 10.6) and other redox chain components
in the membrane would have allowed the passage of an electron flow powered
by sunlight [3]. It is important to emphasize that for this device’s operation,
 10 The Transition from Non-living to Living, Phase by Phase 63

the entire redox chain formation is not necessary, but only the presence of
elements allowing electron passage through the quinone to carry out proton
transfer. Chlorophyll and necessary redox chain molecules were certainly
present in the primordial broth. Being liposoluble, they could penetrate the
double lipid layer and remain trapped.
Assuming not too high a chlorophyll concentration, we can assign a fre-
quency between 10 and 20% of pigment inclusion for an observation time of
about 1 year. The phase can be compromised if the lipid sac system is diluted;
as in the previous case, we will set the time limit at 10 years.

Phase 4
a4 b4 ∆T4 ∆T04
0.1 0.2 1 10

10.6 The Fifth Phase; the “Proton Pump

for Photosynthesis”
Once present in the thickness of the lipid membrane, the set of molecules
indicated above allows Ageno’s “proton photopump” to come into action.
What is it? A mechanism to subtract protons (H+ ions) from the external
environment and transfer them inside the sac system.
The juxtaposition of a pigment—in our case, chlorophyll, because it allows
obtaining electrons from water molecules—with an appropriate double bond
molecule, will allow, when the pigment receives the appropriate photons, to
pass the excited electrons to the double bond molecule. The resulting polarity
will serve to keep the two molecules close together, inside the lipid double
layer. And so on, for all molecules part of the redox chain.
The reduction of the double bond molecule is accompanied by acquisition
of protons from the External environment that, upon subsequent electron
release towards another substance, are given to the Internal environment
instead.
Therefore, there is a chance that a system capable of transferring protons
into the internal environment, making it acidic, may be generated. Naturally,
there is also a chance the opposite may occur.
However, in the first case, the system can evolve in the direction indicated
by Ageno; in the second, it stops. Given the prebiotic broth concentration, it
is likely more pigments and double bond molecules are trapped in the lipid
membranes. Those concentrating protons inside (Figs. 10.7 and 10.8) will
evolve towards the next phases, the others will have no future.
64 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 10.7 Asymmetric passage of protons through the membrane

+
Fig. 10.8 The concentration of H ions within the system of lipid sacs increases the pH
+
of this environment: the arrow indicates the entry of a H ion thanks to the “proton
photopump” (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)
 10 The Transition from Non-living to Living, Phase by Phase 65

Also bear in mind the primordial ocean was presumably more acidic than
current, implying a higher proton concentration that may have contributed
to the pump working in the right direction.
Let’s translate this into a formal statistical phenomenon: chlorophyll, ini-
tially, with 50% probability p, acidifies either inside or outside the lipid sac;
however, this probability will have a binomial standard deviation of 25%, or:

N  p  1  p   N 1 / 2 1 / 2  N / 4

where N is the photon absorptions in the observation time; it will be this

deviation from the average that makes part of the more acidic internal lipid
sacs able to continue the process.
Naturally, lipid sac fusions and separations can reshuffle contents, but it is
undeniable Ageno’s photopump would have been able to “acidify” at least part
of the internal system stably. Let’s assume this fraction is between 10 and 20%
in an observation time of a few days, or 0.01 years and a 10 year limit time as
in the two previous phases.

Phase 5
a5 b5 ∆T5 ∆T05
0.1 0.2 0.01 10

10.7 The Sixth Phase; the Formation of Nucleic

Acid Filaments
The acidification of the internal sac environment, or at least a part of it, allows
solving one of the most important problems related to the transition from
non-living to living: the precipitation of insoluble phosphorus apatites.
Phosphorus is essential to life, intervening in nucleic acid (DNA, RNA) for-
mation and biological energy batteries (the most important being ATP, the
triphosphate form of the adenosine nucleotide, an RNA component). It is
precisely the triphosphate nucleoside forms that are activated and can there-
fore react to form nucleic acid strands. If the trifosfato forms are not pre-
served, nucleic acid construction is lost. This is the crucial step that made us
prefer Ageno’s hypothesis to Lane’s.
The acidification of the internal environment allows, therefore, the conser-
vation of polyphosphates and organic phosphates produced in an abiotic way.
In particular, it favours two essential elements for evolution towards the living:
66 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 10.9 Molecule of ATP

+
Fig. 10.10 Triphosphate nucleotides formed in the environment made acidic by H
ions (ATP, with the adenine base, on the left; CTP, with the cytosine base, on the right)
(IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

1. The formation, starting from prebiotic broth basic components seques-

tered inside the lipid sacs, of DNA, RNA or nucleotide/amino acid
hybrid strands
2. The preservation of ATP formed in an abiotic environment (Figs. 10.9 and
10.10, left), the most important biological “battery” capable of allowing
endoenergetic chemical reaction evolution

Naturally, the lipid sac dynamics, with fusions and divisions, allowed new
material processed in the more acidic compartments to be available through-
out the internal environment.
Given the complexity of this phase, we will assign it a low 2–3% probabil-
ity over 0.01 years (3–4 days) and a 1 year time limit beyond which seasonal
variations could obstruct phase completion.
 10 The Transition from Non-living to Living, Phase by Phase 67

Phase 6
a6 b6 ∆T6 ∆T06
0.02 0.03 0.01 1

This also allows accounting for the fact that current ATP production
involves molecules and processes not yet present at the time. What is really
important is showing the possibility of stably maintaining triphosphate forms
to allow nucleic acid molecule formation.

10.8 The Seventh Phase; the Catalytic

Role of RNA
The production of strands of nucleic acids (DNA, RNA and mixed chains of
amino acids and nucleotide acids) and of triphosphate nucleotides in the
“photopump” system allows, gradually, the further evolution of the system.
Starting from the strands of nucleic acids, replicative processes can begin
dependent on the particular combinations present. By trial and error, certain
strands have become more abundant than others. In parallel, the enzymatic
activity, initially performed by more or less isolated metal ions, becomes the
prerogative of more complex molecules, including organic components.
Is this, perhaps, the famous RNA world [81], in which this molecule per-
formed both enzymatic tasks and those related to inheritance (Fig. 10.11)?
We do not want to go into details. We only remember that RNA, not being
able to form the double helix, is ill-suited to preserve genetic information,
unlike DNA. Moreover, there is no reason to believe that the two types of
nucleic acids could not have evolved in parallel or from a common ancestor.
Since in the current living world, the hypothetical RNA world has left no
traces, we can reasonably consider DNA and RNA as two types of competing
filaments, but which quickly ended up assuming different biological roles
where DNA, with the double helix made up of deoxyribonucleotides, has
become the molecule with a hereditary function.
On the other hand, the importance of RNA in this phase of the process of
the transition from non-living to living should not be underestimated.
Research has highlighted an increasing number of RNA sequences capable of
enzymatic activity. All this suggests that, at least initially, it was RNA that
performed the main enzymatic actions [17]. Let’s also remember that in the
more acidic environments of the internal compartment of the sacs, triphos-
phate nucleotides could form capable of providing the energy for the
68 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 10.11 Fragment of RNA strand

synthesis of new molecules and for allowing the elongation of nucleic acid
filaments, the most active from the catalytic point of view.
It is now practically certain that RNA filaments can function as biological
catalysts: the longer the filaments, the easier it is to find a reaction that is cata-
lyzed by these even if, naturally, being less specific, they are less effective than
proteins. If the concentration is high, the times of the chemical reactions are
quite short (hours), less short if the concentration is low (days-months). We
will put ourselves in the second case by placing the fraction of suitable RNA
molecules between 90 and 100% in a time of 0.1 years (about a month) with
a limit of about 1 year, as in the previous phase.

Phase 7
a7 b7 ∆T7 ∆T07
0.9 1.0 0.1 1.0

10.9 The Eighth Phase; Determination of Roles

Our system, now equipped with catalytic molecules and energy batteries, was
able to start producing new biological molecules from a suitable carbon
source. Having evoked photosynthesis as the main engine of our process, it is
natural to consider carbon dioxide (CO2) as such a source.
On the other hand, this liposoluble molecule could overcome the double
lipid membrane and diffuse into the internal sac environment. Moreover, at
the time, the CO2 rate was much higher than the current one. Carbon dioxide
was well suited as a carbon source for the processes evoked previously and is
considered to occupy such a role also in Lane’s theory.
Little by little, through trial and error, the roles of the different organic
molecules present began to differentiate. DNA, thanks to its double helix
 10 The Transition from Non-living to Living, Phase by Phase 69

properties (Fig. 10.12), established itself as the molecule responsible for

inheritance and control of the entire system. Proteins, thanks to their particu-
lar three-dimensional structure specific for each (Fig. 10.13), have proven to

Fig. 10.12 Representation of a double helix DNA strand

Fig. 10.13 Three-dimensional representation of a protein

70 E. Mieli et al.

be more functional, distinguishing themselves for their extreme specificity in

performing enzymatic activity. Finally, RNA specialized as an intermediary
between DNA and protein synthesis, becoming indispensable for this activity
(a significant part of ribosomes is composed of RNA).
The phenomena of role selection just described could have been realized
gradually over a hundred years according to a maximum and minimum frac-
tion of 20 and 30%. The maximum time coincides with the observation time.

Phase 8
a8 b8 ∆T8 ∆T08
0.2 0.3 100 100

10.10 The Ninth Phase; the Formation

of the Cell Membrane
Following the last step, new organic molecules spread in the system. Those
concerning the synthesis and duplication of particular DNA chains will be
favored and propagate.
However, new protein chains are gradually included in the double lipid
thickness. Some maintain its stability and coherence; others allow production
of triphosphate nucleotides (the bases for producing DNA, RNA as well as
biological batteries) from their precursors. The pouch in which all this hap-
pens will tend not to merge with others to exchange content and will acquire
characteristics allowing it to house the system to produce triphosphate nucle-
otides from precursors (to easily produce the biological batteries, as in current
bacteria).
Little by little, the various metabolic processes begin accumulating in single
pouches that end up acting independently. Finally, at least one of these, of the
appropriate size, will include all the processes and achievements listed in the
previous stages, which can occur in a single protected microenvironment
(Figs. 10.14 and 10.15). It will then be this last one which will continue its
evolution towards the living.
We can assign low minimum and maximum frequencies of 1 and 2% over
an observation time of a few days (protein chain inclusion time in the mem-
brane), or 0.01 years, and a 1 year limit time (seasonal cycle).

Phase 9
a9 b9 ∆T9 ∆T09
0.01 0.02 0.01 1
 10 The Transition from Non-living to Living, Phase by Phase 71

Fig. 10.14 Representation of a cell membrane (Nastech)

Fig. 10.15 The metabolic processes of the previous stages now all take place in a sin-
gle sac, whose surface no longer merges with the others (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli,
Maccone)
72 E. Mieli et al.

10.11 The Tenth Phase; the Emergence

of the Genetic Code
Once the processes described in the previous phases have been established,
there is still a fundamental step before obtaining a living being: the emergence
of the genetic code, that is, the appropriate combinations of three nucleotides
(Fig. 10.16) capable of specifically indicating the amino acids to be added to
the protein chain in the previously seen protocell.
It is in this way that the main function of the “program” (which dictates
what to do and when) constituted by the DNA can exercise its operation. And
it is also in this way that coherence can be established in the chemical pro-
cesses of the system.
How is this step achieved? Through evolutionary trial and error [62], the
various nucleic strands that favor the amino acid chains that contribute to the
maintenance and generation of other copies of the same strands will be favored
and perpetuated. Thus, gradually, in the protocell, one or some DNA chains
will be able to produce all the molecules necessary for their duplication: these
chains spread and every change capable of improving or accelerating the pro-
cess is selected by evolution.
With the completion of this final stage, we have reached a system that is
now able to satisfy both Ageno’s conditions and the six needs indicated by
Lane, within a single compartment, now modified compared to the starting
sacs. We have finally obtained our living being.

Fig. 10.16 Examples of “translation” of the genetic code: on the left, the triplet
“Uracil-Adenine-Cytosine” (UAC) codes for the amino acid Methionine (Met); on the
right, the triplet “Guanine-Guanine-Cytosine” (GGC) codes for the amino acid Proline
(Pro) (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)
 10 The Transition from Non-living to Living, Phase by Phase 73

In this last case, as far as estimating frequencies is concerned, we face two

obstacles: the formation of nucleotides (from a phosphate group, a pentose
sugar, and a nitrogenous base) and their combination into strands. While the
second process seems very likely, the first is not as much. Focusing on this, as
in the previous case, we can assign minimum and maximum low frequencies
of 1 and 2%, this time, however, over an observation time of 5 years and a
limit time of 20.

Phase 10
a10 b10 ∆T10 ∆T010
0.01 0.02 5 20

Before concluding, we point out that this phase can be reversed with the
previous one. In fact, the emergence of the genetic code, the final step toward
the constitution of the living being, may have occurred when the system was
still widespread within all the pockets, or more than one of them.
What is the correct order? It is difficult to say with precision. By confining
the last step to a single “pocket” and leaving it the task of making the transi-
tion from non-living to living, we ensure that all descendants will have the
same genetic code, as is the case with all current organisms on Earth. We do
not know if in the past there were multiple different genetic codes nor what
their impact might have been on the evolution and interaction of living
beings. We will return to this problem later, before addressing the further
evolution of the system.
We note, however, that the pure inversion of two or more phases, without
any modification of the different values attributed in the different stages, does
not change the final value of the probability obtained from Maccone’s
­algorithm, precisely because of the inherent mathematical properties of the
algorithm itself.

10.12 Evaluation of Probabilities at Each Stage

We have thus obtained the 40 input values of step 1 reported in Table 10.1.
∆T0, as already written, is the sum of the ∆T0j and represents the average
period; while the long-term limit ∆T is set by us at about 100,000,000 years.
In conclusion, at the end of our journey, we have found, through the log-
normal Φ, a probability of realizing a full cycle of the transition from non-­
living to living, in the average period ∆T0~1,000,000 years, equal to about
0.7%, (Fig. 10.17).
74 E. Mieli et al.

Table 10.1 4th Drake: the 40 values of the frequencies aj and bj minimum and maxi-
mum, of the observation time ΔTj and of the microcatastrophe time ΔT0j, for each
phase described in the previous paragraph
Phase Description aj bj ∆Tj ∆T0j
1 The abiogenic synthesis of biological 0.90 1.00 1,000,000 1,000,000
molecules
2 The concentration of the primordial broth 0.05 0.15 100 10,000
3 The formation of lipid vesicles 0.90 1.00 0.10 10
4 The inclusion of chlorophyll in lipid 0.10 0.20 1 10
membranes
5 The “proton photopump” 0.10 0.20 0.01 10
6 The formation of nucleic acid filaments 0.02 0.03 0.01 1
7 The catalytic role of RNA 0.90 1.00 0.10 1
8 Determination of roles 0.20 0.30 100 100
9 Formation of the cell membrane 0.01 0.02 0.01 1
10 The emergence of the genetic code 0.01 0.02 5 20

Fig. 10.17 4th Drake: the lognormal distribution Φ of the process in the medium
period ΔT0: the average value is 7.31 ⋅ 10−3, the standard deviation is 1.95 ⋅ 10−3 (IJA
14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

This value, applying the rule of transformation of probabilities described

for the phases (covariant with time), that is:

p A  1  1  p A 0 
n
 10 The Transition from Non-living to Living, Phase by Phase 75

translates, in the long term ΔT~100,000,000 years, into an average probabil-

ity of the onset of life on Earth equal to:

f l = 52%

between the two minimum and maximum values

= =
f lmin 32 %andf lmax 66%

Drake 4
fl min fl max
3.2⋅10 –1
6.6⋅10–1
 11
Considerations on the Fourth Parameter

Although our work can only be considered preliminary—and certainly con-

tains elements and conditions that will need to be reviewed in light of future
scientific discoveries—we can already recognize some interesting results.
Firstly, we found a value for the probability of life arising within 100 mil-
lion years that, contrary to what one might expect, is on the order of 0.5, or
rather decidedly high (incidentally equal to the value inserted by Maccone in
2008 in his statistical Drake equation). Therefore, we do not need to invoke
an anthropic principle to justify our presence as observers of the phenomenon
of life on Earth (a reasoning along the lines of: life in the universe is very rare,
but since I exist and represent life, the probability is nonetheless non-zero).
Instead, we can fall within the principle of mediocrity, which asserts that the
Earth, and we with it, is not a privileged point, and we are not special even as
observers. This conclusion was far from taken for granted, even though recent
paleontological observations already hinted that life on our planet formed as
soon as it had the opportunity, a few tens of millions of years after the planet
stabilized [19, 84].
Moreover, Maccone’s method of dividing the problem into more individu-
ally approachable sub-problems from a mathematical-statistical point of view
makes the phenomenon of the emergence of life less obscure or, at least, par-
tially manageable. It is obvious that the frequency values attributed to the
phases and the phases themselves can be improved and redefined (we hope
that in the future they will be), but what matters is that the algorithm gives a
response consistent with the input data. It would be interesting to explore the
probability obtained using a different model—for example, that of Lane or

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E. Mieli et al., The Living Galaxy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-67324-5_11
78 E. Mieli et al.

others—for the transition from non-living to living, but this goes beyond the
scope of our book.
Finally, we want to point out that there is no preclusion to using this
approach not only to planets entirely similar to Earth but also to situations
that deviate slightly without precluding the possibility of the emergence of
life. We are thinking of some nearby situations like Saturn’s sixth moon,
Enceladus, which could present conditions favorable to life under its icy crust.
But we are also thinking of more distant situations like terrestrial-type exo-
planets located in the habitable zone of their star, like the Trappist-1 system at
40 light-years from us; in such situations, we could have planets with syn-
chronous rotations (rotation equal to revolution) or super Earths with masses
greater than 10 times that of Earth.
To conclude, it is necessary to point out, once again, that for now we have
dealt with the emergence of life in its most basic form: unicellular and pro-
karyotic. It is in this form that, with the appropriate initial conditions (suit-
able planet, etc.), the probabilities that life evolves are significant. But beware,
this excludes animals, plants, and all eukaryotic organisms, that is, all those
beings derived from a symbiotic association between different prokaryotic
cells. This process, which occurred on Earth, will be the subject of the next
section.
Before proceeding further, however, there is one last consideration. We
have seen that, on a planet with suitable characteristics, according to our
model, life establishes itself quickly and with a significant probability. All the
descendants of the protocell that we have followed will have the same
genetic code.
We remember that, on Earth, All living beings descend from a common
ancestor, the famous LUCA (Fig. 11.1) we have already discussed. In fact,
they all possess the same nucleotides and the same genetic code, the same
essential amino acids, and all synthesize their proteins from the same type of
structures, the ribosomes. The model based on a common ancestor is much
more likely than schemes involving multiple origins.
But is this the general case, or is it possible that, on a particular star, life
may appear independently more than once in different locations or from dif-
ferent situations? The model used does not absolutely oppose such a hypoth-
esis. Nevertheless, it must be kept in mind that once a living being endowed
with the appropriate characteristics emerges, it will begin to reproduce, evolv-
ing according to the rules of biological evolution and colonizing all available
environments. In this way, it begins to consume all resources, particularly the
biological molecules present, subtracting them from other potential processes
of life origination that will not, therefore, be able to occur.
 11 Considerations on the Fourth Parameter 79

Fig. 11.1 Phylogenetic tree that links all the main groups, bacteria, archaea,
and eukaryotes, to LUCA (NASA)

However, it is theoretically possible that life takes shape from two separate
locations on the planet. In any case, the descendants of the first strain that
appeared, or those of the fastest to spread and colonize the planet, will sooner
or later enter into competition with those of the second. Then, they will tend
to outcompete and make the second strain disappear. It is likely that in a few
million years, the descendants of the first group will be the sole inhabitants of
the planet, or they will have relegated the others to absolutely marginal roles.
We will see, in fact, the importance that for subsequent phases, the living
beings that interact on the planet in question are All descendants of a single
progenitor and therefore have all the same main characteristics, in particular,
the same genetic code.
 12
Fifth Drake: The Probability
of Intelligent Life fi

In the fifth parameter, given the complexity, we immediately find ourselves

having to divide the process into at least three large macrointervals:

Macrointerval A the appearance of the eukaryotic cell

Macrointerval B the appearance of animals (the metazoans)
Macrointerval C the appearance of intelligent civilization (ETC)

Each macrointerval will be divided into several phases, as was done for the
fourth parameter. The substantial difference lies in the temporal scales of
catastrophes: given that life, once formed, is decidedly more resistant com-
pared to the biochemical environments that preceded it, the typical times of
microcatastrophes ∆Tj are now on the order of 100,000 years, while those of
macrocatastrophes ∆T0j are on the order of half a billion years. The phases
that divide the three macrointervals are as follows:

Macrointerval A

• the evolution of an aerobic bacterium

• the host-symbiont encounter
• the formation of pores and the extrusion of cytoplasmic extensions
• the “wrapping” of the symbionts and the disappearance of the host’s cell wall
• the “penetration” of symbionts into the cytoplasm
• the migration of DNA from the symbiont’s genome to that of the host
• the acquisition of the eukaryotic cytoplasmic membrane
• the incorporation into a single coating and phagocytosis

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E. Mieli et al., The Living Galaxy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-67324-5_12
82 E. Mieli et al.

Macrointerval B

• the acquisition of a complex life cycle

• the aggregation of zoospores and the formation of the synzoospore
• the sedentary colony composed of differentiated cells
• the production of collagen

Macrointerval C

• the increase in size of metazoans (with the acquisition of the nervous and
vascular systems)
• the development of limbs
• the conquest of the mainland
• the differentiation of terrestrial animals
• the acquisition of sociality
• the acquisition of upright stance and manual dexterity
• the change in diet and the growth of the brain
• the organization of the brain for abstract thought
• the birth of articulated language and technique

12.1 The Starting Point; The Conditions

of Stability of a Planet
For life as we know it to be sustainable, water must be present, especially in its
liquid form. This substance can be broken down into its constituent elements,
hydrogen and oxygen, by ionizing radiation from the sun. To block this radia-
tion, a protective layer like ozone (O3) must form in the atmosphere. This
molecular form is the product of common oxygen (O2) reacting to the main
solar electromagnetic rays, which are thus shielded.
Paradoxically, the oxygen resulting from the decomposition of water does
not contribute to the formation of the ozone layer, because the phenomenon
of hydrolysis is very slow and the released gas is sequestered by the oxidation
of minerals present in the environment. To form O3, oxygen molecules must
be able to remain in the atmosphere for a sufficient time; for this, their pro-
duction must be regular and abundant. The only process that allows an abun-
dant and regular production of this gas is photosynthesis carried out by
chlorophyll-containing plants and cyanobacteria [95]. But producing oxygen
is not enough; the planet must have enough mass to retain the oxygen mole-
cules, without them being dispersed into space. A sufficient planetary mass is
 12 Fifth Drake: The Probability of Intelligent Life fi 83

precisely one of the initial conditions evoked in the previous section of this
work related to the fourth parameter.
We will return to this issue later, but remember that if water were to disap-
pear, no form of life would be possible and, for this reason, it is necessary to
stop its hydrolysis before it is too late. However, if these conditions were suf-
ficient for the onset of life, we will see that they are no longer enough for the
conditions we want to address now. In fact, we must ensure that the very
existence of the planet is long enough to ensure biological evolution reaches
the level that interests us. Now, from what we have seen for the third param-
eter, such times are measured in several billion years; the age of the Earth is
indeed 4.54 ± 0.05 billion years. At the end of the section, we will summarize
the information that comes to us from the third parameter onwards to estab-
lish the number of planets stable enough for the development of life at every
stage, from the most primitive to galactic civilization.
 13
Macrointerval A: The Crucial Transition;
The Onset of the Eukaryotic Cell

Current prokaryotes include archaea and all bacteria. They are microscopic
organisms, significantly smaller than eukaryotes: despite the existence of
“giant” bacteria, organisms with eukaryotic cells have on average a volume
15,000 times greater than prokaryotes. These latter, however, despite being
smaller, are numerous and widespread everywhere: they represent the most
substantial part of terrestrial biodiversity [31, 83].
The diversity of prokaryotes is not based on morphology, but on their
metabolism. The set of metabolic differences that plants, animals, fungi, and
all other eukaryotic organisms display is nothing compared to the array of
different processes presented by bacteria and archaea. These latter were once
simply considered prokaryotes specialized in colonizing extreme environ-
ments, where living conditions are (according to our standards) if not impos-
sible, at least very difficult (hot springs at high temperatures, hypersaline
ecosystems, anoxic environments). In reality, archaea seem to be present in
the majority of environments existing on our planet [6].
On the other hand, bacteria are the organisms that present the most signifi-
cant metabolic diversity. Some are capable of coexisting with hyperthermo-
philic archaea, while others perform the same type of photosynthesis carried
out by chlorophyll-containing plants, with the release of O2. There are bacte-
ria that cannot tolerate this gas, while others grow very well in its presence.
There are even some that are capable of producing the energy they need thanks
to the reduction of uranium. Finally, to underline the surprising capabilities
of some representatives of this group, let’s remember Rubrobacter radiotolerans
[22], one of the organisms most resistant to gamma radiation: it can tolerate
doses thousands of times higher than those needed to kill a human. It seems,

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024 85

E. Mieli et al., The Living Galaxy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-67324-5_13
86 E. Mieli et al.

moreover, that there are various microbial strains, belonging to both bacteria
and archaea, that present high tolerances to radiation.
Eukaryotes cannot compete with prokaryotes on their own ground.
However, these organisms, thanks to their abilities and properties, occupy
ecological niches precluded to bacteria and archaea. The eukaryotic cell differs
from the prokaryotic one (Fig. 13.1) due to the presence of peculiar
characteristics:

Fig. 13.1 5° Drake—macrointerval A: Comparison between a prokaryotic cell (a) and

an animal eukaryotic cell (b), with the typical elements of the two cells indicated on
the figure. The main differences between bacteria and archaea lie at the level of the
cell membrane. The two cells are not to scale: the prokaryotic cell is about the size of
the mitochondria indicated in the eukaryotic cell ((a) CNX OpenStax and (b) Giac83)
 13 Macrointerval A: The Crucial Transition; The Onset… 87

• It has a nucleus with a double membrane, in which (almost all) the cellular
DNA is contained, organized in the form of chromosomes;
• It contains cellular organelles with genetic material not present in the
nucleus and internal membranes;
• It is equipped with a dynamic cytoskeleton (cellular skeleton) mainly
made up of filaments constituted by the actin protein, which supports the
membrane and allows its deformation (eukaryotes, originally, did not have
a cell wall, although certain phylogenetic lines, such as plants, subsequently
evolved one);
• Finally, they can develop a whole series of complex behaviors, including,
among other things, phagocytosis (lost in eukaryotes with a cell wall),
sexuality and aggregation into multicellular organisms.

A eukaryotic cell normally possesses a significantly larger amount of genes

than a prokaryotic one: the largest bacterial genome contains 12 megabases
[Mbp] (one base [bp] is a pair of paired nucleic acids; a megabase [Mbp]
indicates a million of base pairs) of DNA, while the human one has
3000 Mbp—and certain eukaryotes reach up to 100,000 Mbp [60]. The
ability to manage complex structures and processes, obtained thanks to a
powerful collection of proteins that mediate their implementation, seems to
be the great difference between eukaryotes and prokaryotes. In fact, theoreti-
cally, the various “eukaryotic” characteristics all seem to have their prokaryotic
precursors, but the latter never take the decisive step towards complexity [27].
To better understand what this complexity consists of, let’s see some typical
examples. Let’s start with sexuality; in the fossil record, the oldest known tes-
timony is Bangiomorpha pubescens [11], a red algae, found in the sediments of
the Canadian Arctic currently dated to just over 1 billion years (1 Gy) [35,
54]. Although we do not know exactly whether the first eukaryotic organism
to appear was capable of reproducing sexually, it seems clear that the oldest
ancestor of all current eukaryotes was. No prokaryotic organism, on the other
hand, has a sexual cycle, although some are capable of transmitting genetic
material through horizontal gene transfer.
Regarding the constitution of multicellular organisms, although there are
known bacteria capable of associating and forming filaments, no prokaryotic
organism is capable of forming aggregates that can behave in such a coordi-
nated way as to form a complete individual.
Finally, as already indicated at the beginning of the paragraph, unicellular
eukaryotes are larger than prokaryotes, although there are exceptions. There
are gigantic bacteria, but only a handful of forms are known in total.
Epulopiscium fishelsoni and Thiomargarita namibiensis, for example, are true
88 E. Mieli et al.

titans: their size makes them visible to the naked eye (in fact, they reach tenths
of a millimeter), exceeding the size of many unicellular eukaryotic organisms!
What allows these organisms to reach such a size? Their peculiarity is that they
can have many copies (up to several thousand) of their genome relegated to
the periphery, close to the cell wall, while most of the cytoplasm is metaboli-
cally inactive [76]. These adjustments would allow them to survive despite
their excessive size. In any case, this strategy turns out to be an evolutionary
cul-de-sac, because it does not translate into any complex behavior on the part
of these prokaryotes.
Having said this, how to explain the differences between these two types of
cells? How to justify the superior capabilities of eukaryotes compared to those
of prokaryotes? Beware, these latter organisms are not at all inferior or less
evolved than the former (just think about the fact that they present such a
diversified range of metabolisms that they can be found absolutely every-
where). Simply, eukaryotes have evolved to occupy ecological niches pre-
cluded to bacteria and archaea. How did they do it?

13.1 The Eukaryotic Cell as a Symbiosis

Between Prokaryotes
The answer would lie in the genesis of the eukaryotic cell, derived from a
symbiotic association between prokaryotes and, more particularly, between an
archaeon and a bacterium [4, 18, 71]. Some specialists even think that viruses
were involved in the formation of the nucleus of the new type of cell. In any
case, most authors now agree in considering eukaryotes as real “chimeras”,
obtained from more than one living being. But in order to obtain a symbiosis
of this type—more precisely, an endosymbiosis, in which various symbionts
live inside the host cell—it is necessary that the subjects involved in the pro-
cess possess the same genetic code, in order to understand the same instruc-
tions contained in the genes. For this reason, in the previous paragraph, the
importance of descent from the same ancestor in subsequent evolution was
emphasized.
But let’s get back to our main point. All current eukaryotes have organelles,
limited by a double membrane, that derive from symbiotic prokaryotes: the
mitochondria and the plastids. The latter are only present in photosynthetic
organisms, such as green plants, as they are essential for such processes. The
acquisition of these organelles was accompanied by a transfer of genes from
the symbiont’s genome to that of the host, a phenomenon that always occurs
 13 Macrointerval A: The Crucial Transition; The Onset… 89

in ALL endosymbioses. The mitochondria, in particular, would have derived

from a single form of bacterium belonging to the group of alpha-­proteobacteria,
which establishes the unique origin of this organelle. It was precisely its
acquisition that marked the birth of the eukaryotic cell [72]. In fact, all
current eukaryotes have mitochondria, except for the few forms that have
transformed them or lost them, but still preserving some characteristic genes
in their nucleus [118]. In any case, it is believed that the common ancestor of
all eukaryotes had a mitochondrion.
But what advantage does this organelle confer? Is the fact of breathing
O2 enough to justify the eukaryotic capabilities? Aerobic respiration (the
oxidation—a real combustion—of nutrients by O2) is more advantageous
than anaerobic, at least 6 times more. However, the presence of oxygen
increases the costs of protein production (remember that living beings were
formed in an anoxic environment, i.e., devoid of free oxygen). The pres-
ence of this gas increases 13 times the expenses of protein production,
compared to its absence. Moreover, in various bacteria, aerobic metabolic
processes develop much faster than in the mitochondrion. Therefore, the
advantage does not seem to be linked only to the respiration of O2. In real-
ity, the benefit conferred by this organelle lies in the ability to greatly
increase the energy available per gene: with the term “energy per gene” we
mean the cost necessary for gene expression: the cost to produce proteins
and other cellular components. By increasing the energy per gene—and the
presence of mitochondria allows the eukaryotic cell an increase between 4
and 6 orders of magnitude—the amount of energy that can be devoted to
gene expression increases, thus also increasing the number of genes that a
cell can manage. And the more genes there are, the more the cell becomes
capable of “complex” processes and behaviors. Remember that the eukary-
otic genome includes a much higher number of genes than the prokary-
otic one.
Let’s try to quantify better what has been said. Starting from experimental
bases, it is possible to evaluate the average metabolic rate of a bacterium in
normal growth: its value is about 0.19 W/g. Since its mass is 2.6 ⋅ 10−12g, the
total power of the cell will be given by the following formula:

0.19  2.6 1012  0.49  1012 W

If we consider a protozoan (a unicellular eukaryotic being), we have an aver-

age metabolic rate of about 0.06 W/g, but a much larger mass, of 4 ⋅ 10−8 g.
The total power of the cell will then be given by:
90 E. Mieli et al.

0.06  4 108  2.400  1012 W

Starting from these values, knowing the number of genes contained in the
DNA of the bacterium (5000) and of the protozoan in question (20,000), we
can calculate the energy available per gene for the two organisms:

bacterium 0.49 1012 / 5000  1016 W / gene

protozoan 2.400 1012 / 20, 000  1.200  1016 W / gene

It is easy to notice that, in this particular case, the eukaryotic cell has an
energy available per gene that is about 1200 times higher than that of the
prokaryotic cell. Using the metabolic rates, masses and genome sizes of other
organisms, even larger values can be found for eukaryotic organisms.
It is not size that explains the superior performance of eukaryotes, but
rather their capabilities that allow them to reach certain dimensions. Let’s give
a practical example to better simplify the difference between prokaryotic and
eukaryotic organisms. Let’s imagine that, for a wedding lunch, you want to
prepare tortellini with a particular meat filling and a special sauce for 30
guests. Who will be more efficient? A team of three specialized chefs (one for
the tortellini dough, another for the meat filling, and the last for the sauce) or
three chefs each preparing the same entire dish for 10 guests? It is easy to real-
ize that the team of three people, in which each phase of the work is carried
out separately (decentralization), will produce more quickly and effectively,
that is, with less waste, a large number of portions compared to asking several
chefs to do all the work. The statement remains valid even if we considered
many more chefs (10, for example) each doing all the work. In fact, the divi-
sion and specialization of labor are characteristics that allow optimizing the
results.
Let’s remember the giant bacteria, with various copies of their genome dis-
tributed near the cell membrane and the central part of the inert cytoplasm.
To be able to produce more energy, a larger effective surface is needed (in the
case of bacteria, it is the entire surface of the cell membrane). But a larger
surface also requires more genes to manage and manufacture it (in the case of
bacteria, the entire genetic heritage, consisting of a single chromosome, is
duplicated). However, all these genes require energy to be managed. Moreover,
as the surface increases, the cytoplasmic volume also increases, which also
requires energy to be managed. Giant prokaryotes have found a solution to
increase their size, but essentially, the energy available per gene does not
change compared to that available for a standard-sized bacterium. Therefore,
from an evolutionary point of view, it is not an improvement, quite the
contrary...
 13 Macrointerval A: The Crucial Transition; The Onset… 91

Instead, the eukaryotic cell does increase its size, but it does not have n cop-
ies of the entire genome: it decentralizes energy production in the various
mitochondria (each of which uses the effective surface of the membrane that
delimits it), which, in turn, transfer their genome into that of the nucleus,
except for the genes strictly necessary for the control of the functioning of the
energy production redox chain (it is estimated that mitochondria retain only
about 1% of their original estimated genome) [40]. In this way, the various
components of the eukaryotic cell divide the tasks: the nucleus preserves the
genome and replicates it, the cytoplasm reserves the production of cellular
material, and the mitochondria, which no longer need to deal with protein
synthesis, dedicate themselves exclusively to energy production, increasing
efficiency and benefiting the entire organism. In this case, the increase in
energy due to the increase in the effective production surface (the set of all
mitochondrial membranes) does not have to be subtracted a part equivalent
due to the multiplication of the genetic code: one copy of this is enough,
properly managed, inside the nucleus (plus some genes necessary for the man-
agement of the redox chain in each mitochondrion). The energy available per
gene is effectively larger for this type of organism!
To recap: eukaryotes derive from a symbiotic association between an
archaeon and a bacterium (the latter will become the mitochondrion).
Currently, it is thought that the symbiotic bacterium was a facultative aerobe,
capable of breathing O2 when present, but also equipped with anaerobic
metabolism in the absence of this gas. The consumption of O2, therefore, is
present from the first steps of the onset of eukaryotes, and this fact underlines
the importance of this gas in the evolution of living beings. In this regard, it is
enough to remember what we have already said about the ozone layer (O3),
which protects us from ionizing radiation (enough to separate electrons from
atoms) coming from space and allows us to live on land. Without free oxygen,
not only would water be decomposed into its fundamental elements, but the
evolution of living beings would have been deeply disrupted. In fact, the level
of O2 influences the synthesis of cholesterol [107], an indispensable molecule
present in the cell membrane of ALL animals. Not surprisingly, the onset of the
eukaryotic cell is posterior to the Great Oxidation Event (GOE), which occurred
around 2.4 and 2.1 billion years ago [64]. This event signals the presence of
free O2 in the environment, as evidenced by the geological formation of layers
rich in iron oxides, the Red Beds. In short, the importance of this gas for the
first eukaryotes and their descendants is no longer to be demonstrated.
Although there are some rare cases of bacteria present inside other prokary-
otes, the symbiotic association that allows the emergence of eukaryotes is con-
sidered a unique event (although a recently discovered organism has raised
the question) or extremely unlikely. Indeed, it is noted that the emergence of
92 E. Mieli et al.

eukaryotes, placed between 2.1 billion years ago and 1.6 billion years ago
[49], occurs after more than 1.5 billion years from the appearance of pro-
karyotes, which occurred around 3.7 billion years ago, or even earlier [24,
89]. During this long period of time, eukaryotes are absent, while bacteria
and archaea differentiate abundantly [99].
Despite this, we want to question, in this context, the possibility that the
onset time of eukaryotes could have been influenced by different parameters
compared to the presumed improbability of the symbiotic phenomenon. For
example, one of the key factors could simply be the time required to reach a
certain level of O2 in the environment, without which the association would
not have occurred.
But why, then, do all eukaryotes descend from a single ancestor and, sub-
sequently, no other symbioses of this type have been recorded, despite there
being a relative abundance of O2 in the environment? We do not have a defin-
itive answer to this question. The only one that comes to mind is that, having
worked perfectly the first time, eukaryotes gradually occupied all the available
niches, limiting competition and preventing the phenomenon from repeating
or strongly limiting it (remember what was said about the transition from
non-living to living and the descent of all current living beings from a single
ancestor).

13.2 The Inside-Out Model for the Emergence

of the Eukaryotic Cell
Due to the presence of a rigid cell wall, prokaryotes (whether they are bacteria
or archaea) are not very suitable for being “colonized” by other microorgan-
isms. So how to solve the problem of the association of an archaeon with
endosymbiotic bacteria?
A recent model, called Inside-out, could provide an interesting and original
answer to the problem of a symbiotic association between an archaeon and a
bacterium and would allow explaining in more detail the emergence of the
eukaryotic cell.
The authors Baum and Baum [7, 8] propose that it is not the bacteria that
penetrate inside the cell wall of the archaeon, but that the latter is able to
produce, through specific pores homologous to those of the nuclear mem-
brane of eukaryotes, cytoplasmic outgrowths, which, over time, can wrap
around the associated microorganisms stationed on its wall (Fig. 13.2a).
According to this model, the outgrowths would cover the entire organism,
wrapping around the archaeon cell (Fig. 13.2b), which would in fact become
 13 Macrointerval A: The Crucial Transition; The Onset… 93

Fig. 13.2 Simplified diagram of the Inside-out model: (a) the protrusions emerge from
pores in the wall (thick black line) of the archaeon; (b) the protrusions develop and
begin to wrap around the associated bacteria (the two gray ovals), while the wall
begins to fade; (c) the cytoplasm completely covers the archaeon and the bacteria have
penetrated through the membrane, finding themselves inside: the original structure of
the archaeon, covered by a double membrane with pores (four of these are marked
with asterisks), will become the nucleus of the new cell (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli,
Maccone)

the “nucleus” of the new organism, covered by a double-layered membrane

derived from the original one plus the one added by the lobes of the out-
growths. Gradually, the archaeon’s cell wall would also disappear, having
become superfluous. Finally, the associated bacteria would lose their cell wall
to find themselves also in the cytoplasm protected by a double membrane
(Fig. 13.2c). Essentially, the symbionts would not enter the host, but it would
be the host’s cytoplasm that has come out to cover them.
Certain archaea are perfectly capable of generating extracellular protrusions
[70]. Moreover, as we will see later, the Inside-out model is perfectly compat-
ible with the hypotheses made about the possible nature of the host. For this
reason, we will adopt it to describe the steps leading to the formation of the
eukaryotic cell.

13.3 The Onset of the Eukaryotic Cell, Phase by

Phase. The Starting Point; The Release
of Oxygen and Its Diffusion
in the Environment
We have seen the importance of O2 concentration for the onset of eukary-
otic cells and the evolution towards intelligent life forms. The only process
that ensures the production of significant quantities of this gas is
94 E. Mieli et al.

photosynthesis, a purely biological phenomenon. But then, when do the

first organisms capable of releasing O2 thanks to the process of photosyn-
thesis evolve? Remember that only some photosynthetic organisms are able
to release O2 as a result of this process: these are chlorophyll-containing
plants and cyanobacteria, which use water, H2O, as an electron donor
(Fig. 13.3).
According to M. Ageno, the first living organisms were not only capable of
photosynthesis, but they even released O2. In fact, the Italian physicist argues
that electrons logically had to be obtained from a very common substance in
nature, water or H2O, precisely. For this type of photosynthesis, special com-
plex pigments, chlorophylls, are needed. M. Ageno reports that laboratory
experiments like those carried out by Stanley Miller have shown that the abi-
otic synthesis of such molecules is perfectly possible.

Fig. 13.3 Release of oxygen from the first photosynthetic cyanobacteria in shallow
depths during the GOE (2.4–2.1 Gy)
 13 Macrointerval A: The Crucial Transition; The Onset… 95

According to other specialists, however, the first living beings were chemo-
autotrophs. Although the GOE, occurred between 2.4 and 2.1 billion years
ago, experts believe that prokaryotes capable of producing O2 (cyanobacteria)
were present on our planet at least from 3 billion years ago, although certain
clues, not always decisive, suggest that they could have existed much earlier.
However, there is no contradiction between these dates, as the process of
accumulation of O2 in the environment is considered a slow process and
opposed by other phenomena. It remains that the content of this gas in the
environment became equal to 10−2 times approximately the current value
only after 2.5 billion years, manifesting with the ability to produce deposits
called Red Beds. Note that the appearance of eukaryotes is subsequent to
this event.

13.4 The First Phase; The Evolution

of an Aerobic Bacterium
The current theory of the onset of the eukaryotic cell involves a symbiotic
association between an archaeon, the host, and various individuals of a bacte-
rial strain, the symbionts. William Martin and Miklós Müller in 1998 [73]
hypothesized that the host archaeon was an anaerobe, strictly dependent on
H2, while the symbiotic bacteria were able to breathe O2 and produced H2 as
a metabolic waste product. Such behaviors would have ensured complemen-
tarity between the organisms (Fig. 13.4).
Therefore, an aerobic bacterium was necessary, at least partially. But when
did such organisms first appear? Research on Precambrian layers has made
much progress in recent years and has documented an extraordinary variety of
organisms during the first billions of years of our planet. Not only that, it has
been documented, around 3.4 billion years ago, a complex ecosystem, includ-
ing microorganisms capable of producing hydrogen sulfide (H2S) plus other
organisms, builders of stromatolites, dependent on this substance which they
used as an electron donor to perform photosynthesis.
As you can see, even in ancient times, prokaryotes had differentiated and
had formed complex communities where various complementary ecological
niches were occupied. With such assumptions, given the metabolic versatility
of bacteria, it is reasonable to think that, once O2 became available in the
environment, some microbial strain became capable of exploiting this gas as a
resource to produce energy in a few thousand years at most: the probability is
estimated between 0.4 and 0.6 every 2000 years, with a micro-catastrophe
time limit of 100,000 years.
96 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 13.4 Formations of the first aerobic prokaryotes during the GOE
(2.4–2.1 Gy)

PHASE 1
a1 b1 ∆T1 ∆T01
0.4 0.6 2000 100,000

13.5 The Second Phase:

The Host-Symbiont Encounter
Let’s now focus on the host organism. Currently, thanks to a series of protein
homologies, it is believed that eukaryotes share a common ancestor with the
group of archaea called “Asgard archaea” or even that such ancestor was
directly within this group [25, 63, 104].
The Asgard archaea constitute a super-phylum known mainly thanks to
genetic material found in the environment. Despite this, they turn out to be
very widespread organisms, whose remains have been found in marine, lake
and terrestrial sediments. They are mostly anaerobic and mainly spread in
hydrothermal springs and/or methane-rich areas. One strain would even be
anaerobic and dependent on H2, the requirements requested by Martin and
Müller in 1998 for the host of the symbiotic association. They are therefore
 13 Macrointerval A: The Crucial Transition; The Onset… 97

the ideal organisms to search for the archaeon protagonist of the onset of the
eukaryotic cell.
Recently, moreover, a particular microorganism has been described, capa-
ble of surviving only thanks to a symbiosis with other microbes, which belongs
to a phylum of the group of Asgard archaea, that of Lokiarchaeota (Fig. 13.5),
considered close to eukaryotes. The described prokaryote—this time it is not
just about simple analysis of gene sequences found in the environment, but
the identification of a real existing organism—has the ability to generate cyto-
plasmic outgrowths [46]. This ability allows it to facilitate the exchange of
material with external symbionts. Therefore, in light of all these facts, our
approach consisting in the use of the Inside-out model appears legitimate.
Although the origin of the Asgard archaea is not known, from their sup-
posed diversity it should be old enough. We consider, therefore, that the
group already existed at the time of the appearance of aerobic bacteria, even
if, being made up of mostly anaerobic prokaryotes, probably, the two types of
organisms initially lived in different environments. However, currently, it is
believed that the symbiont bacterium was a facultative aerobe, capable of
populating the environments frequented by anaerobic archaea.
We therefore consider that an interval of 10,000 years is more than suf-
ficient for the encounter to take place and for the association to form (asso-
ciations between archaea and bacteria also occur currently, although the
latter remain outside the former): the probability is estimated between 0.01
and 0.02 every 10,000 years with a micro-catastrophe time limit of
100,000 years.

Fig. 13.5 Lokiarchaeota belonging to the set of archaea called “Asgard archaea”,
probable common ancestor with the eukaryotes (Christa Schleper/Nature journal)
98 E. Mieli et al.

PHASE 2
a2 b2 ∆T2 ∆T02
0.01 0.02 10,000 100,000

13.6 The Third Phase; The Formation of Pores

on the Membrane and the Extrusion
of Cytoplasmic Extensions
In the previous stage, we saw that the ability to produce cytoplasmic out-
growths is a characteristic of some groups of archaea. To allow the extrusion
of pores, it is necessary that specific structural proteins are produced, such as
the molecules that form the rings of the nuclear pore complex of eukaryotes
(COPII). Although prokaryotic equivalents of such molecules have been
found, it seems that these proteins are not homologous to those of eukaryotes.
It is therefore preferable to imagine an evolution ex novo in the host lineage,
rather than assuming an older prokaryotic inheritance. That is, these struc-
tures do not derive from analogous molecules present in prokaryotes, but are
novelties evolved in the strain that led to the emergence of eukaryotes.
In any case, since pores are necessary for protrusions and since this ability
is widespread in various groups of archaea, it is logical to assume that a certain
variety of support proteins have been produced, including those homologous
to those of eukaryotes, from which the latter would have derived.
Once the pore is produced, the cytoplasm can extrude forming an out-
growth supported by cytoskeletal elements (Fig. 13.6). For these latter, some
proteins homologous to those of eukaryotes have been found in most of the
phyla belonging to the Asgard archaea. The formation of pores and out-
growths is treated as a single phase, due to the close link between the two
processes (the first would make no sense without the second, whose probabil-
ity can be set equal to 1, once the previous one has occurred).
The time required for the production of molecules homologous to those of
eukaryotes to stabilize the pores and for the formation of those of the cyto-
skeleton is estimated in a few thousand years: the probability is estimated
between 0.04 and 0.06 every 5000 years with a micro-catastrophe time limit
of 100,000 years.

PHASE 3
a3 b3 ∆T3 ∆T03
0.04 0.06 5000 100,000
 13 Macrointerval A: The Crucial Transition; The Onset… 99

Fig. 13.6 Diagram of the host archaeo wall, with pore crossed by a cytoplasmic out-
growth, according to the Inside-out model (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

13.7 The Fourth Phase; The “Wrapping”

of the Symbionts and the Disappearance
of the Host’s Cell Wall
The next step involves the development of cytoplasmic outgrowths that begin
to approach and “wrap” the bacteria (Fig. 13.2b). These protrusions would
have evolved to facilitate exchanges between the archaeon and the microor-
ganisms in symbiosis with the former, which were on its external surface,
being unable to penetrate the host’s cell wall. The cytoplasmic expansions are
supported by the cytoskeletal elements already evoked in the previous phase,
which continue to develop. At the same time, the cell wall of the archaeon
begins to regress, until it disappears completely, for two reasons:

• It becomes essentially useless, as it is covered by the cytoplasmic extensions,

in contact with the internal environment of the archaeon;
• It is counterproductive because it hinders a greater extrusion of the
cytoplasm.

At this point, due to the disappearance of the cell wall, the membrane of the
extrusions, folded inward, overlaps the original membrane that covered the
archaeon (Fig. 13.2c). Thus, the future nucleus of the new cell begins to take
shape, consisting of the region formerly occupied by the archaeon and delim-
ited by a double lipid membrane, equipped with pores.
The endoplasmic reticulum, a membrane with multiple folds located near
the nucleus, where protein synthesis occurs, would derive from the folds of
the membranes of the extrusions.
100 E. Mieli et al.

The duration of this phase is given by the wrapping of the host-symbiont

complex by the outgrowths coming out of the pores and by the complete
disappearance of the archaeon’s cell wall; it can be estimated at a few thousand
years: the probability is estimated between 0.01 and 0.02 every 2000 years
with a micro-catastrophe time limit of 100,000 years.

PHASE 4
a4 b4 ∆T4 ∆T04
0.01 0.02 2000 100,000

13.8 The Fifth Phase; The “Penetration”

of the Symbionts into the Cytoplasm
The following phase envisions that the bacteria are completely enclosed by the
cytoplasmic expansions of the host cell, losing their cell wall to facilitate easier
communication with the host’s cytoplasm. Although it is difficult to establish
the origins of mitochondria due to the minimal amount of genome they have
retained, recent studies indicate that the ancestors of these organelles should
be sought among the alpha-proteobacteria, and more specifically, among bac-
teria related to the Rickettsia genus [29] (Fig. 13.7).
These microbes are obligate endosymbionts that parasitize the cells of
eukaryotes (mainly insects, but humans can also be infected), penetrating
them thanks to their ability to lyse lipid membranes. However, the ancestors
of mitochondria did not need to possess any penetration ability, as they were
enveloped by the outward protruding lobes of the host cell. The disappear-
ance of their cell wall is considered a step to enable greater exchange with the
host’s cytoplasm.
As Baum and Baum emphasized, this process absolutely does not involve
phagocytosis (a phenomenon that, as we will see later, will only occur in the
final stages). The bacteria were external symbionts, and they found themselves
inside the host due to processes initiated by the latter. On their part, they
merely lost their cell wall, remaining encased in a second membrane (relative
to their own) derived from that of the host extrusion that enveloped them.
This process is considered separate from the previous one, for the simple rea-
son that we do not know if the disappearance of the two walls—that of the
host and that of the symbionts—was simultaneous or not. In any case, by the
term “penetration of symbionts” into the cytoplasm, we only refer to the
disappearance of the rigid cell wall of the symbionts.
 13 Macrointerval A: The Crucial Transition; The Onset… 101

Fig. 13.7 Rickettsia is a small bacterium that grows inside the cells of its hosts

Considering the mechanisms of this process, the overall time expected for
the completion of this phase is rapid, estimated at no more than a few decades.
However, we attribute it a low probability of 0.01–0.02 every 50 years, with
a microcatastrophe time limit of 100,000 years, to account for the risk of
compromising the association following the change of conditions and the
more direct relationship with the host’s cytoplasm.

PHASE 5
a5 b5 ∆T5 ∆T05
0.01 0.02 50 100,000

13.9 The Sixth Phase; The Migration of DNA

from the Genome of the Symbiont to That
of the Host
Once endosymbiosis is established—with the symbionts now residing inside
the host—a universal process is set in motion that occurs every time these
types of associations are produced: the migration of genes from the genome
of the symbionts to that of the host. When we talk about the “migration” of
genes from the symbiont to the host, we mean their elimination from the
102 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 13.8 Migration (along the arrow) of the symbiont’s genome (small rectangle at
the top right) towards the DNA of the host (at the bottom, on the left); the genome
thus transferred will be lost from the symbiont’s DNA but will be preserved in that of
the host (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

genome of the former and their complete transfer to that of the latter
(Fig. 13.8). This process allows the association to increase its efficiency, as the
host takes care of protein synthesis, including that of various molecules of the
symbionts, while the latter concentrate on their specific activities: energy pro-
duction or the production of particular biological compounds.
The older the endosymbiosis, the more significant the amount of genetic
material that has been transferred to the host’s DNA. In this way, the two
partners not only become complementary but also dependent on each other,
especially the former symbiont. However, it is precisely by freeing the mito-
chondrion from tasks related to protein synthesis and allowing it to focus
solely on energy production that enables the future eukaryotic cell to increase
the energy available per gene, to levels unexpected for prokaryotes.
It is believed that currently, mitochondria retain only approximately 1% of
the genetic material possessed by their alpha-proteobacterial ancestor.
According to current evidence, more than 1.5 billion years (1,5 Gy) separates
us from the symbiotic association that marked the onset of the eukaryotic cell.
How long must we wait for a sufficient migration of genetic material from
the symbiont to the host? Certainly in the first organisms with sexual repro-
duction (the oldest known is Bangiomorpha pubescens, whose fossils have been
found in sediments just over 1 Gy old) the percentage of reduction must
already have been comparable to the current one. Probably, however, a suffi-
cient level had already been reached well before then. We can therefore esti-
mate a timescale on the order of tens of thousands of years for this process:
 13 Macrointerval A: The Crucial Transition; The Onset… 103

with a probability between 0.1 and 0.2 every 10,000 years and a microcatas-
trophe time limit of 100,000 years.

PHASE 6
a6 b6 ∆T6 ∆T06
0.1 0.2 10,000 100,000

13.10 The Seventh Phase; The Acquisition

of the Eukaryotic Cytoplasmic Membrane
The cellular membranes of archaea are constituted differently from those of
bacteria and eukaryotes. These last two groups, unlike archaea, possess mem-
branes made of the same types of lipids. This is a very important structural
diversity between archaea on one side, and bacteria and eukaryotes on the
other, because it involves building the membranes with slightly different
materials and using different chemical bonds.
In fact, eukaryotic and bacterial cells possess membranes whose polar head
groups are bound to lipid chains through ester-type bonds, while those of
archaea use ether-type bonds. Moreover, the lipid chains of archaea are made
up of branched, long isoprenoid alcohol molecules, while the chains of bacte-
ria and eukaryotes are linear and unbranched (Figs. 13.9 and 13.10).
These differences are explained by the fact that the membranes of archaea
are more resistant to the high temperatures where many of these organisms
thrive (and where their ancestors likely evolved). But then, based on the
inside-out model of eukaryogenesis, how can we explain the homologies
between bacterial and eukaryotic membranes? What if the host is of archaeal
nature and therefore has a different type of membrane structure?
Let’s recall that in the previous phase, a large portion of the symbiotic bac-
terium’s genome was transferred into the host’s DNA.
This also applies to the genes responsible for assembling the bacterial mem-
brane. Once they become part of the host’s genomic heritage, biological evo-
lution will push to achieve an “economical” situation: the simplest outcome is
to produce only one type of membrane for all the constituents of the symbi-
otic association. But which one to choose—the original archaeal type or the
imported bacterial type?
The answer can only be the second one. In fact, the membrane of the sym-
bionts has specialized in efficient energy production through the oxidation of
organic molecules by O2, and this efficient energy production is precisely the
key advantage conferred by these organisms to the symbiotic association.
104 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 13.9 Structure of the cell membrane (Mariana Ruiz)

Fig. 13.10 Main differences between the constituents of the cell membranes of bac-
teria and eukaryotes (on the left) and those of the archaea (on the right): the polar
head of bacteria and eukaryotes, binds to the hydrophobic chains through an ester
bond, while archaea use ether bonds; the hydrophobic chains of bacteria and eukary-
otes are made up of linear fatty acids, while those of archaea are formed by long
branched alcoholic molecules (the various elements are not to scale with each other)
(IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)
 13 Macrointerval A: The Crucial Transition; The Onset… 105

It follows that the only membrane whose nature can be modified is the
original archaeal host membrane. In this way, the future eukaryotic cell will
be covered by a membrane whose nature is typical of bacteria. The bacterial
genes that determine the assembly of the cell membrane will begin to be
selected as soon as they are fully integrated into the host’s genome.
Thanks to the selective pressure exerted by evolution, this complete mem-
brane replacement can take place in relatively short times—at most a couple
of thousand years, with a probability estimated between 0.001 and 0.002
every 2000 years and a microcatastrophe time limit of 100,000 years.

PHASE 7
a7 b7 ∆T7 ∆T07
0.001 0.002 2000 100,000

13.11 The Eighth Phase; The Incorporation

of the Host-Symbionts Ensemble into
a Single Coating (Continuity
of the Cytoplasm) and Phagocytosis
Finally, the lobes of the cytoplasmic expansions begin to come into contact
and fuse with each other: the archaeal host’s cytoplasm completely engulfs the
endosymbiotic bacteria, exhibiting relative continuity among all its parts.
Although the properties of the membrane components (mostly lipid mole-
cules) favor fusion at the contact zones, somewhat as we have already seen in
the third phase related to Drake’s fourth parameter (transition from non-­
living to living), additional molecules are needed to complete this process.
Proteins from the dynamin family, for example, are able to mediate the fission
and fusion of biological membranes, allowing, among other things, the for-
mation or fusion of vesicles. Many bacteria possess protein homologs of these
eukaryotic molecules. It is therefore likely that eukaryotic dynamin-like pro-
teins are derived from bacterial precursors, after the assimilation of the sym-
bionts’ genome by the host. The new contribution of these proteins, together
with the cytoplasmic skeleton already discussed previously (third phase), also
allows the onset of phagocytosis—the process that enables a deformable cell
(therefore without a rigid wall) to ingest smaller solid objects (including cells
smaller than itself ). It is precisely because of the development of this complex
protein system of bacterial origin that explains why the formation of the outer
106 E. Mieli et al.

membrane and the appearance of phagocytosis only occurred in the terminal

phases of eukaryogenesis.
Regarding other processes such as cell division or the acquisition of cellular
cilia/flagella, these have evolved in parallel to those already described (or
shortly after), integrating perfectly with the inside-out model. Further contri-
butions to the nuclear genome could also have been obtained thanks to the
action of viruses, acting in parallel to the phenomena thus far exposed.
However, such a scenario does not alter the overall picture that has already
been described.
The time predicted for the definitive transformation into a fully eukaryotic
cell is estimated at a few thousand years: with a probability between 0.01 and
0.02 every 5000 years and a microcatastrophe time limit of 100,000 years.

PHASE 8
a8 b8 ∆T8 ∆T08
0.01 0.02 5000 100,000

At the end of the process we have just detailed, we can observe the emer-
gence of a new type of cell, constituted by the symbiotic association between
an archaeon that forms the nucleus (but let’s not forget about the bacterial
genetic contributions and, possibly, those transferred by viral means) also pro-
viding the cytoplasm of the organism, with a varying number of bacteria that
have become mitochondria. Subsequently, the new eukaryotic organism
begins to diversify, occupying ecological niches that were precluded to pro-
karyotes (which we have already discussed in the general section on the ori-
gins of eukaryotic cells) that imply an increase in size or the adoption of
complex behaviors. Starting from 1 billion years ago (1 Gy), but probably
even earlier, we are certain that eukaryotes had acquired the ability to repro-
duce sexually. This latter property gives an acceleration to the biological evo-
lution of the group and an increased ability in the production of biological
innovations, as we will see in the following sections.

13.12 Evaluation of the Probabilities at

the Passage of Each Stage
We have thus obtained the 32 input values to be inserted in step 1 of the
calculation algorithm of the Maccone’s lognormal statistical distribution
(Table 13.1). We report in Fig. 13.11 the lognormal distribution of the mac-
rointerval A process.
 13 Macrointerval A: The Crucial Transition; The Onset… 107

Table 13.1 Fifth Drake—macrointerval A: The 32 values of the frequencies aj and bj

minimum and maximum, of the observation time ΔTj and of the microcatastrophe time
ΔT0j, for each phase described in the previous paragraph

Phase Description aj bj ∆Tj ∆T0j

1 The evolution of an aerobic bacterium 0.400 0.600 2000 100,000
2 The host-symbiont encounter 0.020 0.030 10,000 100,000
3 The formation of pores and the extrusion of 0.040 0.060 5000 100,000
cytoplasmic extensions
4 The “wrapping” of the symbionts and the 0.010 0.020 2000 100,000
disappearance of the host’s cell wall
5 The penetration of the symbionts into the 0.100 0.200 5000 100,000
cytoplasm
6 The migration of DNA from the symbiont’s 0.500 0.700 10,000 100,000
genome to that of the host
7 The acquisition of the eukaryotic cytoplasmic 0.001 0.002 2000 100,000
membrane
8 The incorporation of the host symbiont set in 0.010 0.020 5000 100,000
a single coating (continuity of the
cytoplasm) and phagocytosis

Fig. 13.11 Fifth Drake—macrointerval A: The lognormal distribution Φ of the process

in the average period with <X0> = 1.26 · 10−3 (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

∆T0, as already written, is the sum of the ∆T0j and represents the average
period equal to 800,000 years; while the long limit period ∆T is set by us at
about 500,000,000 years.
To conclude, at the end of our journey, we found, through the lognormal
Φ, a probability of realizing a full cycle of the transition from non-living to
living, in the average period ∆T0 = 800,000 years, equal to about 0.126%,
(Fig. 13.11).
108 E. Mieli et al.

This value, applying the transformation rule of the probability described

for the phases (covariant with time), that is:

p A  1  1  p A0 
n

translates, in the long term ∆T = 500,000,000 years, into an average proba-

bility of the emergence of eukaryotes equal to:

fe = 54%

between the two minimum and maximum values

=fe min 29
= % and fe max 71%.

The average gives us a value of about one case out of two, in a interval of
500 My, comparable to that of the transition from non living to living. The
phenomenon, therefore, does not seem to be so unlikely!
 14
Macrointerval B: The Second Step;
The Birth of Animals (the Metazoans)

In the previous section, we described a scenario that allows us to explain the

emergence of the eukaryotic cell as a symbiotic association between prokary-
otes. The new organism is not better or more evolved than the previous ones,
but represents a higher level of complexity achieved by the different distribu-
tion of activities among distinct centers within the cell. For example, the
mitochondrion is entrusted with energy production, being the organelle
exempt from other major tasks. So, what will be the next step? It is possible to
recognize, in the kingdom of life, an increase in complexity by considering
step-by-step the biological entities obtained from the combination of those
from the previous level. Let us explain this concept better: we have moved
from level I, that of prokaryotes, to level II (the eukaryotic cell), by combin-
ing elements of the previous level (prokaryotic cells united in a symbiotic
association). In the same way, it is possible to move to a further level, level III,
by combining various elements of the previous level II, and so on [76]. This
trend has already been rigorously suggested by Daniel W. McShea and Jean-­
Pierre Rospars [93]. For us, therefore, the next step will be sought in multicel-
lular eukaryotes and, in particular, in the animal kingdom. In fact, in no other
eukaryotic group or kingdom is it possible to encounter “intelligent” activities
as in that of animals. Plants, evolutionarily speaking, while not at all inferior
to their animal cousins, have chosen different solutions more suitable to their
existence as immobile beings “rooted” in the soil. The same goes for fungi and
other groups of eukaryotes.
But how are animals characterized? When do their traces appear among the
fossils? Animals, better defined as metazoans, as we will call them later, have
the following characteristics:

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024 109
E. Mieli et al., The Living Galaxy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-67324-5_14
110 E. Mieli et al.

1. They are multicellular eukaryotes, made up of differentiated cells;

2. They are heterotrophs (incapable of making their own food, they must
find it in the environment in which they live);
3. They have a development that goes through very precise stages, including
that of embryo;
4. They are capable of moving, at least in one of their different life stages;
5. Finally, as we will see better, ALL current animals, even the simplest ones,
possess collagen, a structural element that intervenes in numerous pro-
cesses (Fig. 14.1).

The oldest fossils of known metazoans date back between 630 and 550 mil-
lion years ago [43]. Meanwhile, between these dates and those of their first
appearance (2.1 billion years ago), eukaryotes have differentiated and have
already made most of their evolutionary conquests: just over 1 billion years
ago there are multicellular organisms equipped with sexuality and, shortly
after, photosynthetic organisms appear that are the result of symbiotic associa-
tions between different eukaryotes. The same process is repeated, that is, the
same process that led to the onset of the eukaryotic cell, but this time with
eukaryotes as protagonists. In more or less coeval layers (around 1 billion
years ago), fossils of multicellular organisms having cells of at least two differ-
ent types have been found. These eukaryotes, called Bicellum brasieri, are con-
sidered close to the group in which the ancestors of the metazoans are to be
sought, based on their morphological characteristics. The curious thing is that
they would not be marine organisms, but terrestrial ones.
But if multicellularity had already appeared before 1 billion years ago, why
do metazoans only manifest much later? First of all, let us point out that

Fig. 14.1 Structure of cellular tissue held together by collagen or connective tissue (Jill
Gregory/MOUNT SINAI HEALTH SYSTEM)
 14 Macrointerval B: The Second Step; The Birth of Animals… 111

multicellularity has been achieved independently, and at different times, by at

least 13 eukaryotic lineages, if not more [99]. This means that it is a property
inherent to the condition of the eukaryotic cell.
However, it is not enough to be multicellular to be considered an animal.
We remember that among the characteristics of modern metazoans is the abil-
ity to produce collagen. Now, the formation of this molecule requires an
appropriate level of O2 in the environment. If we study the evolution of O2
levels, we discover new peaks and plateaus for values of O2 greater than those
related to the Great Oxygenation Event (GOE) that we have already encoun-
tered. While during the Paleozoic there seem to have been values higher than
the current one, in this context we are interested in the interval between
approximately 0.8 and 0.5 billion years ago. In this indicated period, there
was a further increase in O2 compared to the values of the GOE. This event is
referred to as the Neoproterozoic Oxidation Event (NOE): corresponding to it,
O2 values comparable to the current ones are recorded [82].
The eukaryotic cell emerged among the periods in which these two differ-
ent levels of O2 manifested. Soon after, eukaryotes became capable of per-
forming photosynthesis thanks to the integration of a new endosymbiont, a
cyanobacterium, which transformed into the chloroplast [13]. This new evo-
lutionary step would have taken place between 1.5 and 1.2 billion years ago.
Subsequently, the new photosynthetic organisms and those that quickly
evolved from them (among these eukaryotes are the distant precursors of ter-
restrial plants and their ancestors) will contribute, along with the already pres-
ent cyanobacteria, to the oxygenation of the environment and will be
fundamental for the achievement of the new peak of O2.
It is important to note the correspondence between the NOE (0.8–0.5
billion years ago) and the onset of metazoans (0.63–0.55 billion years ago)
which leads us to suppose that, in order to evolve, animals required high levels
of O2 in the environment. Why? Probably because otherwise they would not
have been able to synthesize collagen, necessary to give the extracellular matrix
and future tissues the required mechanical resistance. As we have seen in the
case of cholesterol, a fundamental molecule for the eukaryotic cell membrane
whose synthesis was favored by the GOE phenomenon, now the suspicion is
again creeping in that the great conductor of the fifth parameter of Drake is
once again oxygen whose net increase, first around 2.2 billion years ago
(GOE) and then at 0.6 billion years ago (NOE), has allowed further levels of
complexity in living matter. It would not be, therefore, about the improbabil-
ity of the occurrence of other processes (or at least not all of them: let’s remem-
ber the onset of the eukaryotic cell, seen at the end of Macrointerval A), but
simply the time necessary to sufficiently oxygenate the planet!
112 E. Mieli et al.

Let’s now move on to the search for the ancestors of metazoans and try to
establish a model for their origins. The Holozoa constitute a group of eukary-
otes that includes metazoans (but excludes fungi), in which various groups
consist of unicellular organisms.
It is interesting to note that many animal proteins have homologs in
eukaryotes of this group [78]. However, the organisms closest to metazoans
are those that make up the choanoflagellates, flagellated unicellular organisms
whose flagellum is surrounded by a distinct collar (Fig. 14.2).
These cells closely resemble choanocytes, the flagellated cells of sponges
(simple sessile and filter-feeding animals, at the base of metazoans), which
allow these organisms to convey nutrient particles towards their oral cavities.
No fossils of choanoflagellates are known, but experts, applying the molecular
clock, think that the group may have appeared between 1.05 and 0.80 billion
years ago, well before the onset of metazoans around 0.63–0.55 billion years
ago [85].
Various models have been proposed to illustrate the origins of metazoans,
but we will follow the Synzoospore theory, initially proposed by Alexey
Zakhvatkin in 1949. Currently, the model is presented in the following form
by Mikhailov [78]: a eukaryotic cell with a complex life cycle (including dif-
ferent morphological phases), produces spores that, instead of dispersing, join
together to form a particular aggregate. This, in turn, transforms into a colony

Fig. 14.2 Choanoflagellate—the flagellum (dashed inside the collar), the collar and
the cellular body of the organism are indicated (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)
 14 Macrointerval B: The Second Step; The Birth of Animals… 113

with differentiated cells, which only reflect the different morphological phases
of the initial eukaryotic cell (Fig. 14.3).
The basic idea is to start from a cell that presents different morphologies
according to its life cycle (a phenomenon that occurs normally in various
unicellular eukaryotes, including the choanoflagellates), whose zoospores, the
cells derived from the zygote (the result of the fertilization of two sexual cells;
Fig. 14.3a), join to form the synzoospore (Fig. 14.3b). Subsequently, each
cell develops following a growth “desynchronized” with the others, so as to
have a sedentary colony (“proto-larva”) made up of different cells (even if all
having the same genetic code, as derived from the same zygote), which settles
on the bottom for a trophic sedentary phase (Fig. 14.3c).
Starting from this stage (and once the collagen that fills the extracellular
matrix and provides mechanical support to the whole has been produced),
evolution operates allowing the differentiation of the embryonic states that
follow the synzoospore, in order to produce the first divisions and taxonomic
differentiations within the group. Naturally, the final stage, to reproduce, gen-
erates a new zygote (Fig. 14.3: arrow between “C Sedentary colony” and “A
zygote”) and the cycle can start again.

Fig. 14.3 The model of the Synzoospore theory: the zygote (a), dividing, produces the
zoospores that join to form the Synzoospore (b); the asynchronous development of the
cells that make it up produces a colony composed of different cells (even if all with the
same basic genetic code) that acquires sedentary habits (c). To reproduce, the colony
can generate a new zygote and the cycle begins again (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli,
Maccone)
114 E. Mieli et al.

14.1 The Onset of Metazoans, Phase by Phase.

The Starting Point; The Choanoflagellates
These choanoflagellate organisms constitute the group of eukaryotes closest to
that of metazoans, and it is therefore logical to search for the progenitors of
animals among them. Choanoflagellates are all unicellular marine heterotro-
phic organisms that feed on bacteria. They predominantly reproduce asexu-
ally, but in at least one taxon, several genes related to the process of meiosis
have been discovered, in turn linked to sexual reproduction. We also remem-
ber that the common ancestor to all current eukaryotes (LUCEA: Last
Universal Common Eukaryotic Ancestor) is considered to have reproduced
sexually.
Finally, we know that choanoflagellates share many genes with metazoans,
and this allows us to consider them as the best candidates to find the ancestors
of the metazoan group. Their genomic relatedness, similar collar cells, and
inferred presence of sexual cycles make choanoflagellates prime candidates for
the unicellular progenitors that multicellularized into the first animal forms.

14.2 The First Phase; The Acquisition

of a Complex Life Cycle
The basis of the Synzoospore theory is that morphological diversity was acquired
before multicellularity, in the sense that the organism that would eventually
aggregate to form the first animal already had a complex life cycle comprising
different morphological phases before associating and forming the multicel-
lular entity.
We know that such a cycle exists in current choanoflagellates. But when did
it evolve? Bearing in mind that it is assumed the group has existed for at least
800 million years and that, probably, the first organisms could reproduce
sexually (in any case, their ancestors could). Therefore, such a characteristic
must have appeared quite early on. Among other advantages, being able to
have different morphological types allows organisms to better cope with vary-
ing environmental conditions.
Given these considerations, the complex life cycle in the group could have
evolved within a few tens of thousands of years, with a low frequency in the
 14 Macrointerval B: The Second Step; The Birth of Animals… 115

short term: the probability is estimated between 0.01 and 0.02 every 20,000
years with a mass extinction limit of 1,000,000 years.

PHASE 1
a1 b1 ∆T1 ∆T01
0.01 0.02 20,000 1,000,000

14.3 The Second Phase; The Aggregation

of Zoospores and the Formation
of the Synzoospore
Why should zoospores aggregate rather than go off on their own? At first
glance, it would seem that the efficiency of dispersion could be reduced, but
in reality this is not the case. Moreover, an increase in size can serve to deter
potential predators from attacking the colony. Not only that, but this will
make the colony more competitive when it comes to settling down to start a
sedentary phase. This is, for example, the strategy used by many sponges.
Let’s not forget, then, that the colony (Fig. 14.3b) is formed by cells that pos-
sess the same genetic heritage (as they derive from the same zygote) and this
favors intercellular communication and therefore the coordination of the
whole, and that genes capable of producing cell adhesion substances are pres-
ent within the group of Holozoa. However, the aggregation of the zoospores
produces the synzoospore, the mobile phase of the organism’s life cycle. It may
also represent (it or its evolutionary development) the embryo of the
future animal.
Knowing that there are choanoflagellates that can form colonies after
cell division, this phase should also be able to be completed quickly (over
the course of several thousand years): the probability is estimated between
0.02 and 0.03 every 15,000 years with a mass extinction limit of
1,000,000 years.

PHASE 2
a2 b2 ∆T2 ∆T02
0.02 0.03 15,000 1,000,000
116 E. Mieli et al.

14.4 The Third Phase; The Sedentary Colony

Composed of Differentiated Cells
The asynchronous development of the different cells that make up the colony
constitutes the third stage of the model. The morphological diversification of
cells within the colony can be favored by the division of tasks, which allows
increasing the efficiency of the organism (let’s remember what we have already
seen regarding the emergence of eukaryotes).
Having started from a unicellular organism characterized by a complex life
cycle with different morphological stages, it should not be impossible to
evolve a pool of genes that allows the asynchronous development of cells, so
that some present a different morphology from the neighboring ones (mor-
phology, however, provided by the general developmental plan of the organ-
ism; Fig. 14.3c). It is not about “inventing” anything new, except perhaps
some regulatory genes. Let’s remember, however, that metazoans share with
their closest taxonomic groups not only structural genes but also others that
regulate development, which can, through biological evolution, have given
rise to those evoked above.
In this phase, the evolution of particular regulatory genes is necessary, start-
ing from the pool present in the ancestors of the metazoans: the probability is
estimated between 0.02 and 0.04 every 200,000 years with a mass extinction
limit of 1,000,000 years.

PHASE 3
a3 b3 ∆T3 ∆T03
0.02 0.04 200,000 1,000,000

14.5 The Fourth Phase; The Production

of Collagen
Starting from the previous phase, we already have a living being that we could
almost define as a “metazoan”. It is a heterotrophic organism (the zygote feeds
on bacteria and, possibly, other food particles, before dividing) whose zoo-
spores unite to form the synzoospore, the mobile phase of the life cycle. We also
have a sedentary phase with cellular differentiation (but with cells that all
possess the same genetic heritage). To reach the complete transformation into
a modern animal, according to our definition, all that remains is the produc-
tion of collagen (Fig. 14.4).
 14 Macrointerval B: The Second Step; The Birth of Animals… 117

Fig. 14.4 Various types of connective tissue; from left to right: loose connective tissue,
adipose tissue and compact connective tissue

We note that, regarding the onset of the embryo, the exact identification of
this stage often depends on the animal group in question; we believe that the
synzoospore or the early stages of existence of the sessile colony are a good rep-
resentation. We underscore, finally, that a phase related to the production of
collagen is not foreseen in the model discussed by Mikhailov and his col-
leagues nor in that of Sebé-Pedrós [99]. However, such synthesis becomes
necessary to fill the spaces between one cell and another and to ensure
mechanical resistance to the whole.
Apparently, collagen is absent in unicellular eukaryotes, but this situation
should not surprise us, because in an organism made up of a single cell, the
cytoskeleton is sufficient to give rigidity to the whole. Alternatively, the uni-
cellular can choose other solutions, such as equipping itself with an exoskele-
ton (which will appear, however, only in more recent times). Collagen is
therefore a substance that is produced ex novo by metazoans: there are no
certain precursors among their unicellular ancestors.
However, for eukaryotic organisms that have sexual reproduction and
­differentiated cells, it should not be a problem to devise in a relatively short
time a substance that can fill the interstices between one cell and another and
provide the desired mechanical resistance: the probability is estimated between
0.01 and 0.02 every 50,000 years with a mass extinction limit of 1,000,000 years.

PHASE 4
a4 b4 ∆T4 ∆T04
0.01 0.02 50,000 1,000,000

Once all the basic characteristics that contribute to the definition of meta-
zoans are gathered, biological evolution can favor the transformation of the
cycle described above, developing some particular traits, which will lead to the
differentiation of the main subgroups of animals. Let’s remember, finally, the
importance of the oxygen content in the environment: this may have been the
determining factor that established the timing of the appearance of metazoans
on our planet.
118 E. Mieli et al.

14.6 Evaluation of Probabilities at Each Stage

We have thus obtained the 16 input values to be inserted in step 1 of the cal-
culation algorithm of the lognormal statistical distribution of Maccone
(Table 14.1). The Fig. 14.5 shows the lognormal distribution related to the
process of the macrointerval B in the medium term.
Reporting, with the method of the two previous cases, the probability of
the metazoans 1.50 ⋅ 10−2 of the medium term ∆T0 equal to 4 My over the
long term ∆T equal to 500 My, we obtain the probability of the macroin-
terval B:

fm = 85%

Table 14.1 Fifth Drake—macrointerval B: The 16 values of the frequencies aj and bj

minimum and maximum, of the observation time ΔTj and of the microcatastrophe time
ΔT0j, for each phase described in the previous paragraph
aj bj ∆Tj ∆T0j
1 The acquisition of a complex life cycle 0.01 0.02 20,000 1,000,000.00
2 The aggregation of the zoospores and the 0.02 0.03 15,000 1,000,000.00
formation of the synzoospore
3 The sedentary colony composed of 0.02 0.04 200,000 1,000,000.00
differentiated cells
4 The production of collagen 0.01 0.02 50,000 1,000,000.00

Fig. 14.5 Fifth Drake—macrointerval B: The lognormal distribution Φ of the process

in the medium term ΔT0 equal to 4 My: the average value is 1.50 ⋅ 10−2, the standard
deviation is 4.48 ⋅ 10−3 (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)
 14 Macrointerval B: The Second Step; The Birth of Animals… 119

between the two minimum and maximum values:

=fm min 60
= % and fm max 94%

In this case, the probability of carrying out Macrointerval B is decidedly high

over half a billion years. The onset of animals, therefore, is a relatively easy
process once the eukaryotic cell has evolved.
 15
Macrointerval C: The “Solution”
of Intelligence Deduced
from the Definition of Kardashev, Focused
on Energy per Individual, and Its Birth
Within Metazoans (the Homo Case)

Biologists use various definitions of intelligence. For example, one of the most
recent ones considers this faculty as an adaptive function that allows an indi-
vidual to improve their behavior based on the context: the ability to modify
behavior in the face of new or complex situations. It is clear that while this
definition is useful for describing the “intelligent” behaviors of vertebrates
and many other animals, for our problem, related to the fifth paragraph of
Drake, much higher capabilities are required. And now we will explain why.
From a biological and social point of view, the definition of intelligence
converges in the end on a single key concept: the onset of abstract thought,
or the ability to combine different brain skills to construct new interpretive
models of the environment and actions to be performed. This definition is
absolutely appropriate for any aspect that is considered outside of one: the
amount of energy that a species can manage through abstract thought itself.
This is what we commonly call technique and that we can measure, primarily
in terms of energy, as power in Watts (W) expressed per kilograms (kg) of
body mass.
The new question we must ask ourselves is then: what power, per kg of
body mass, does a certain species express? From simple empirical calculations
we can deduce that living beings, particularly animals, develop an average
basal chemical-metabolic power of about 1 W/kg (we have seen previously,
calculating the energy per gene, that this order of magnitude is true even for
single prokaryotic and eukaryotic cells); this power is sufficient to support the
animal in its usual biological activities. However, the current human civiliza-
tion, thanks to the technique of fossil fuels and not only, for about a century,
has a power estimated at 10 W/kg which is a quantity ten times greater. This

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024 121
E. Mieli et al., The Living Galaxy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-67324-5_15
122 E. Mieli et al.

energy surplus allows us activities previously precluded such as, for example,
the construction of large structures like missiles or telescopes; in other words,
it makes us one of the potential civilizations of the galaxy. If we did not have
this technique, as until two centuries ago, we could never hope to identify or
be identified by other potential galactic civilizations, if not by pure chance.
According to the Russian physicist Nikolaj Semënovič Kardašëv, (from
now on we will use the classic Anglo-Saxon transliteration of his name
Kardashev) this parameter is fundamental for cataloging potentially commu-
nicative extraterrestrial civilizations (ETCs). For this purpose, in 1964, he
devised a power scale on four main levels [51], later reviewed by Carl Sagan
[94], according to the following recurring criterion:

W1 = 1016 Watt is the total solar power received by a rocky planet orbiting
in its habitability zone
W2 = 1011 ·W1 is the total power radiated by the star
W3 = 1011 ·W2 is the total power radiated by the galaxy
W4 = 1011 ·W3 is the total power radiated by the observable universe

As you can see, a recurring growth factor of 1011 is respected between each
level. This characteristic allows us to categorize a civilization with the simple
formula:

log10 (WETC ) − 5
K=
11

Where K is nothing more than the index at the base of the four levels W1 , W2 ,
W3 and W4 , while WCET is the power, expressed in Watts, harnessed by the
civilization in its entirety.
On this scale, a civilization with K = 1, or briefly K1, is able to manage an
amount of energy equal to that provided to the planet by its own star. A K2
civilization manages all the energy of the star, a K3 civilization all the energy
of the galaxy, and a K4 civilization all the energy of the observable universe.
The current human civilization of about 10,000,000,000 individuals of
100 kg each with a power usage of about 10 W/kg, has a total power of
1013 Watt which, on the Kardashev scale, equates to a Khumanity value of:

log10 (1013 ) − 5
K umanity = ≅ 0.7
11
 15 Macrointerval C: The “Solution” of Intelligence Deduced… 123

Therefore, given our decidedly early technological level, an animal species

must have a Kardashev level of at least K = 0.7 to be recognized as intelligent
by other civilizations. And it is this value of K = 0.7 that we will need to keep
in mind when we later talk about ETCs. Given the characteristics indicated
above, the base level for intelligence that we will refer to is precisely that
reached by our species K = 0.7.
However, in the following pages, we will no longer be able to follow a gen-
eral predictive model in which it is possible to obtain each stage from the
previous one, as in the already seen cases of the emergence of animals or pro-
karyotic and eukaryotic cells. Now we will illustrate the main stages, in the
order in which they occurred, that led to the evolution of man. This is because
the information we have on this last process is reduced to the single case of
Homo sapiens. This is therefore an important difference, which must be taken
into account for the evaluation of the entire process described in this volume.
We also remember that the various phases that have characterized the evo-
lution of terrestrial life have been “punctuated” by mass extinctions, episodes
in which there was a drastic and rapid (in geological terms) decrease in the
biodiversity of our planet. Such extinctions have occurred at more or less
regular intervals: in the last 250 million years, the cycles of extinctions—
naturally, of different intensity—would have occurred with a regularity of
about 26 million years [90]. Finally, we want to emphasize that extinctions
do not have a purely negative value. By eliminating or reducing certain taxo-
nomic groups, they allow others, which remained in the shadow of the domi-
nant organisms, to have a chance and bring new evolutionary solutions. If
there had not been the end-Triassic extinction (around 201 million years
ago), dinosaurs would not have become the dominant forms of life on emerged
lands, nor today could we enjoy birds. Without the Cretaceous/Tertiary crisis
(K/T crisis), which ended the Mesozoic (around 66 million years ago), mam-
mals would have remained in the shadow of dinosaurs and would not have
reached their current sizes... and we would not exist!

15.1 The Birth of Intelligence, Phase by Phase.

The Starting Point; The Ediacara Fauna
The term “Ediacara fauna” refers to those associations of organisms found in
sedimentary deposits between 575 million years and 541 million years ago
(the last period of the Neoproterozoic) (Fig. 15.1).
These faunas are composed of unusual animals, on whose lifestyle much
ink has been, and still is, spilled [74]. However, alongside these, various traces
124 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 15.1 The Ediacara fauna (620–541 My) (Ryan Somma)

in the sediments suggest the existence of worms or other bilaterally symmetri-

cal organisms (animals with bilateral symmetry and an antero-posterior axis
of polarity) or their ancestors. It is in this large group of metazoans that intel-
ligent life forms evolve according to the definitions given in the previous
section.

15.2 The First Phase; The Increase in the Size

of Metazoans and the Acquisition
of the Nervous and Vascular Systems
Although some exceptions can be found, one of the main laws found in the
animal world is that of the increase in body mass over time. The Ediacara
fauna is followed by the Cambrian explosion of life (geological period between
541–485 million years ago), a phenomenon that, in reality, lasts a few tens of
millions of years and continues into the following period, the Ordovician
(485–444 million years ago).
Practically, all current phyla appear (the different anatomical plans on
which metazoans are built), plus others now extinct. Mineral tissues begin to
spread in the animal kingdom and the first predators evolve [39]. Not only
 15 Macrointerval C: The “Solution” of Intelligence Deduced… 125

that, but during the Cambrian, the size of animals begins to become impor-
tant: we can encounter some that exceed half a meter in length. From the
lower Ordovician, we even know of fossil cephalopods whose shell exceeded
1 m in size (Fig. 15.2).
What produces this explosion of organisms, equipped with complex ana-
tomical systems and organs, many of which, but not all, also have calcareous
exoskeletons that facilitate their preservation in sediments? Various solutions
have been proposed: from the appearance of eyes to other causes, inherent in
animal physiology or related to environmental changes. Certainly, the cause
of all these changes was not unique; various factors must have intervened.
Among these, undoubtedly, some suitable geochemical conditions were pro-
duced in the oceans. Among other things, an ever-increasing supply of chemi-
cal elements, due to the alteration of terrestrial rocks, was channeled towards
the seas, favoring the development of plant and animal life in them.
The achievements indicated in this section (increase in size, acquisition of
nervous and vascular systems), occur in different animal phyla at different
times, covering a few million years in each phylogenetic line: the probability

Fig. 15.2 The Cambrian explosion (541–485 My) (Eric Cheng/STANFOD UNIVERSITY)
126 E. Mieli et al.

is estimated between 0.02 and 0.04 every 500,000 years with a mass extinc-
tion limit of 10,000,000 years.

PHASE 1
a1 b1 ∆T1 ∆T01
0.02 0.04 500,000 10,000,000

15.3 The Second Phase; The Development

of Limbs
In many different phyla, once certain sizes and, above all, a certain complex-
ity have been reached, different organisms have developed “limbs”, i.e. mobile
appendages capable of performing various functions. Within the group of
arthropods (whose name means “jointed legs”), which includes insects,
arachnids, crustaceans and myriapods, not only do the vast majority of taxa
have segmented limbs for moving and performing other activities, but many,
particularly insects, are equipped with mandibular elements capable of artic-
ulating with each other [60], which make them suitable for performing the
most diverse functions and explain the great plasticity of the group (not to
mention their extreme abundance, in terms of species) (Fig. 15.3).

Fig. 15.3 Artistic reconstruction of Yohoia; it is an animal from the Cambrian period
(541–485 My) that has been placed among the arachnomorphs, a group of arthropods
that includes the chelicerates and the trilobites (Junnn11)
 15 Macrointerval C: The “Solution” of Intelligence Deduced… 127

Among the chordates, the vast majority of vertebrates develop real sym-
metrical appendages like the ray fins of fish or the articulated limbs, increas-
ingly complex and developed in the distal sector (the one furthest from the
body), in the tetrapod group (vertebrates whose limbs are equipped with a
joint with the corresponding bone belt—pelvic or scapular—) and in their
ancestors. In tetrapods, indeed, fingers would have evolved not from the rays
of the fins of actinopterygian fish, but would turn out to be true and proper
evolutionary innovations.
It is believed that the oldest ancestors of the tetrapods (organisms still
equipped with fins, although reinforced with an internal axial skeleton), made
their appearance already towards the beginning of the Devonian [117],
around 410 million years ago, while the first symmetrical limbs appeared, in
vertebrates, probably already from the lower Silurian, more than 430 million
years ago [48].
Finally, it should not be forgotten that, within the phylum of mollusks, the
cephalopods developed from the front part of the “foot” the tentacles, modified
and prehensile lobes. These are true and proper “arms” capable of performing
even very complicated functions. The tentacles appeared with the first cephalo-
pods, in the final part of the Cambrian, more than 500 million years ago.
As can be seen from the examples reported above, different groups of meta-
zoans develop limbs mainly for locomotion but that, subsequently, can fur-
ther evolve to adapt to the needs of the organisms that possess them. As in the
previous phase, the various phyla have developed their limbs at different
times, however, within each group, they always do so after having acquired a
certain complexity and convenient nervous and vascular systems: the proba-
bility is estimated between 0.01 and 0.02 every 500,000 years with a mass
extinction limit of 10,000,000 years.

PHASE 2
a2 b2 ∆T1 ∆T02
0.01 0.02 500,000 10,000,000

15.4 The Third Phase; The Conquest of Land

Without wanting to belittle the intelligence of cetaceans and cephalopods, the
only organisms that have developed a technological level like the one we are
looking for have evolved on land. We do not know if, in an aquatic environ-
ment, it would have been possible to obtain civilizations comparable to the
current ones, but we continue to follow the thread that leads us towards our
128 E. Mieli et al.

species, as previously announced. The next step, therefore, is the one that
makes us gain the land. Indeed, the two previous phases were completely car-
ried out at sea.
The testimonies of terrestrial activities that are recorded during the first
phase of the Paleozoic Era (541–252 million years ago) are rare if not unique.
These are traces of arthropods that have moved on land, it is not known
whether to go from one puddle of water to another, or for another reason. The
cause that prevented animals from settling stably on the emerged lands does
not seem to have been, as once believed, the lack of a suitable atmosphere
capable of protecting organisms from ultraviolet rays. We saw in the previous
section that, after the NOE, the level of oxygen in the atmosphere was more
or less of the same order of magnitude as the current one. Now, it would not
have been difficult for an arthropod, protected by an exoskeleton, to walk on
land in the sunlight. In reality, the problem seems to have been another: on
land the environments were practically sterile, devoid of vegetation. After all,
it is always the plants that arrive first to occupy a new environment, creating
the conditions for the colonization of animals.
Although traces of spores attributed to terrestrial plants are already found
in the middle Ordovician, since about 475 million years ago, the first vegeta-
ble fossil remains of a certain size are found only much later, in the Silurian
(444–416 million years ago). In an extraordinary conservation deposit dis-
covered near the village of Rhynie [34], in Scotland, and dated to 410 million
years ago, there are clues that make us understand why the conquest of the
emerged lands does not go back directly to the time of the NOE (Fig. 15.4).

Fig. 15.4 Reconstruction of the flora of Rhynie (Scotland), in the lower Devonian
(about 410 My)
 15 Macrointerval C: The “Solution” of Intelligence Deduced… 129

In fact, among the exceptional remains of Rhynie, plant roots have been
found that present symbiotic fungi, as is the case in the vast majority of cur-
rent terrestrial plants [111].
Therefore, what determined the time of colonization of plants were not the
conditions of the atmosphere, but those required for the establishment of a
plant-fungus symbiosis (the symbiosis constitutes an essential process for the
evolution of living beings, as we have been able to ascertain during the emer-
gence of the eukaryotic cell). This is indeed necessary to allow plants not only
to develop a support root system but above all to allow them to obtain (mainly
thanks to the fungal hyphae) water and mineral elements from the soil. That
is, it was necessary to wait for the plants to meet the “good” fungi to create the
symbiosis capable of making them fit to live on the emerged land.
Once the plants settled on the continents, the metazoans also settled stably
in turn. At Rhynie, fossil remains of various terrestrial arthropods have been
found. In any case, by the end of the Devonian period (419–359 million
years ago) the plants were well installed on the continents: many stretches of
coast were occupied by forests made up of real “trees”, even 30 m high.
It is in this context that the first tetrapods appear, even if their limbs did
not yet have the ability to support the animal during its movements out of the
water. Rather they served as “paddles” specialized for movements in the liquid
element, among the rich aquatic vegetation of coastal environments. However,
even before the end of the Devonian, some traces testify to the existence of
tetrapods capable of moving, at least temporarily, on land.
Between the Carboniferous (359–299 million years ago) and the Permian
(299–252 million years ago) mollusks conquer the continents [107],
although, at least initially, they probably remained confined to humid envi-
ronments. Note, however, that despite the fact that, currently, terrestrial mol-
lusk species (freshwater or land) are more numerous than those that live in the
seas and oceans, cephalopods (which group the mollusks endowed with intel-
ligence) constitute a set that has always been EXCLUSIVELY marine. Having
said that, strictly intelligent terrestrial animals are limited to vertebrates, so we
will limit ourselves, in the following stages, to following the evolution of
tetrapods.
Although in this case too the different phyla conquer the continents inde-
pendently, the colonization of each animal group must necessarily wait for
that of the plants. Before the end of the Paleozoic Era, various phyla of meta-
zoans have now settled on land: the probability is estimated between 0.02
and 0.05 every 500,000 years with a mass extinction limit time of
10,000,000 years.
130 E. Mieli et al.

PHASE 3
a3 b3 ∆T3 ∆T03
0.02 0.05 500,000 10,000,000

15.5 The Fourth Phase; The Differentiation

of Terrestrial Animals
To exploit the resources of the continents, it is not necessary to completely
abandon the liquid environment. In fact, most modern amphibians depend
on the proximity of ponds and puddles for reproduction. Additionally, their
skin requires a certain level of humidity to survive: few species have been able
to colonize arid environments (although some Australian frogs have succeeded
by employing measures to retain water, living buried and exploiting rare sea-
sonal rainfalls for reproduction).
Although the ancient terrestrial tetrapods differentiated morphologically
and taxonomically [96], the great diversification of vertebrates on the conti-
nents only occurred when such organisms definitively broke away from the
liquid environment for reproduction. Thus, we must wait for the emergence
of amniotes, a group that includes all reptiles, birds, and modern and fossil
mammals. What sets amniotes apart from other tetrapods?
The key to their success is the amniotic egg (Fig. 15.5), a true evolutionary
novelty which enabled them to free themselves from the liquid environment
for reproduction. Rather, they transferred this environment inside the egg
itself. The embryo is immersed in the amniotic fluid, enclosed by the amnion
which, being impermeable, recreates the aquatic environment necessary for
development inside it. The chorion, the outermost layer, is permeable to
gases, allowing the embryo to breathe and exchange gases, aided by the
allantois.
Since it is very difficult to recognize an amniotic egg as a fossil, the identi-
fication is made from bone remains. The oldest known amniotes are Hylonomys
lyelli and Protoclepsydrops haplous, both found in Canadian Carboniferous
sediments about 310 million years old [112]. Starting from these “precur-
sors”, amniotes became capable of colonizing all terrestrial environments,
even the most arid. They could thus move away from coastal and marshy
areas to conquer even the most remote locations of the continents. Amniotes,
therefore, diversified quickly: from the base of the Permian period, we find
ecosystems with “reptiles” occupying various ecological niches: herbivores,
carnivores and omnivores. Their dimensions increased further (but this also
 15 Macrointerval C: The “Solution” of Intelligence Deduced… 131

Fig. 15.5 Scheme of the amniotic egg: the embryo bathes in the amniotic fluid, delim-
ited by the waterproof amnion; the yolk sac contains the nutrients for the embryo; the
allantois is the embryonic appendage that contains waste and plays a role in respira-
tion; the chorion is the outermost layer of the egg (Carboniferous 310 My) (IJA
14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

applied to amphibian tetrapods that remained tied to the liquid

environment).
Starting from the appearance of the amniotic egg, it took a few million
years to witness the differentiation of terrestrial vertebrates and the occupa-
tion of niches present in the new environments: the probability is estimated
between 0.5 and 1 every 500,000 years with a time limit of microcatastrophe
of 10,000,000 years.

PHASE 4
a4 b4 ∆T4 ∆T04
0.5 1 500,000 10,000,000

15.6 The Fifth Phase; The Acquisition of Sociality

We now introduce the fifth phase: the acquisition of sociality. This is a fur-
ther level compared to the first 3 already seen with Macrointervals A, B and
C; the prokaryotic cell, the eukaryotic cell obtained from the symbiosis of vari-
ous prokaryotes, the multicellular beings composed of various eukaryotic cells
all possessing the same genetic code.
132 E. Mieli et al.

The new level is obtained by bringing together various elements of the pre-
vious level, that is different individuals of the same species, who come together
to operate in a homogeneous way and increase their reproduction, food search
and security [1]. In other words, enhancing their own hope of life. Within the
group of metazoans, four different degrees of sociality can be recognized: (A)
colonial invertebrates, (B) social insects, (C) societies of mammals and birds, (D)
human societies.
The first case (A), includes animals that, like corals, form colonies of hun-
dreds or thousands of individuals capable of communicating via tactile signals
(as they are physically connected). Social insects (B), like termites, ants or
social bees, however, generally present a caste system (soldiers, workers, repro-
ducing individuals) formed by morphologically distinct individuals. Although
tactile signals persist, communication is mainly carried out via chemical sub-
stances that various subjects can exchange or leave on the ground for others.
The societies of mammals and birds (C), are characterized by forming troops
comprising various individuals during reproduction or feeding, aiming to
increase the safety of the entire group.
Many of these (most primates, for example) practice varying degrees of
parental care, which helps strengthen social bonds between members of differ-
ent generations. Communication occurs mainly via chemical, visual and audi-
tory signals (however, among monkeys, the habit of grooming and mutual
cleaning helps reinforce cohesion and social status among individuals). Finally,
the last group includes human societies (D), of which any of us is part (the
asocial human, the hermit, is a rarity, the exception proving the rule!).
Individuals communicate via articulated language (which we will also discuss
later, in the last phase) which has allowed, among other things, the evolution
of numerous languages and dialects.
As can be inferred from the cases presented, the difference between the
various degrees of sociality consists mainly in the different types of signals that
individuals of the group are able to exchange to communicate. But if the sim-
plest type of sociality is formed by colonial invertebrates, which are actually
very ancient, why discuss the topic only now? The reason is that the various
degrees of sociality do not represent a ladder where higher levels derive from
lower ones. This is true only for the last two, C and D, but not for the first
two. We can be confident that human societies evolved from those of pri-
mates, from which we descend. For this reason, sociality is introduced only
now, after the appearance of the ancestors of mammals and birds (Fig. 15.6).
Sociality is quite common among certain mammalian groups, including
primates. So at the time of their appearance (between the late Cretaceous and
early Eocene, between 70 and 55 million years ago) such a feature must have
 15 Macrointerval C: The “Solution” of Intelligence Deduced… 133

Fig. 15.6 An artistic reconstruction of a social group of Filikomys primaevus in a bur-

row (Cretaceous 75.5 My) (Misaki Ouchida/Gregory P. Wilson Mantilla/University of
Washington)
134 E. Mieli et al.

developed quite rapidly: the probability is estimated between 0.4 and 0.8
every 500,000 years with a microcatastrophe time limit of 10,000,000 years.

PHASE 5
a5 b5 ∆T5 ∆T05
0.4 0.8 500,000 10,000,000

15.7 The Sixth Phase; The Upright Stance

and Manual Skills
The next stage, in reality, consists of two phases that can occur independently:
the acquisition of upright stance and that of manual dexterity. Only in our
species do they coexist. The acquisition of upright stance, among modern
mammals, is typical of humans but also kangaroos. However, among current
primates, we are the only ones to rely on the bipedal position for locomotion
(although gibbons can walk upright while balancing with open arms [30]).
However, it seems that in the past, at least one other primate resorted to this
type of gait, even if thought to be more similar to that of gibbons than our
own [80, 108]. Despite this exception, bipedalism is the characteristic that
allows placing a fossil hominid in the restricted group from which our species
evolved (Fig. 15.7).
In any case, even before mammals achieved upright stance, this condition
had been reached by dinosaurs [9]. In fact, this peculiarity helps characterize
this group of reptiles and was inherited by their avian descendants. All birds,
regardless of intelligence level, have a bipedal stature.
It is interesting to note that the American paleontologist Dale A. Russell
[93] speculated on a possible descendant of dinosaurs (Fig. 15.8), if they
had not gone extinct during the K/T crisis (let’s remember that without
dinosaur extinction, mammals would have remained confined to their
­
niche). The scientist considered that a representative of the Troodontidae
(=Stenonychosauridae) family could have evolved into a “dinosauroid”, an
intelligent humanoid being derived from the great Mesozoic reptiles.
Naturally, its hypothesized form, which appears similar to ours, was con-
ceived from the anthropomorphism typical of our species. This does not
detract from the fact that an American paleontologist proposed the evolution
of a life form with intelligence comparable to ours, starting from a different
tetrapod group. What was special about this dinosaur family compared to
others, to be chosen as the dinosauroid’s origin? Two features, mainly: a rela-
tively high encephalization quotient compared to contemporaries and
 15 Macrointerval C: The “Solution” of Intelligence Deduced… 135

Fig. 15.7 Pair of Ardipithecus ramidus (4.4 My, Pliocene)

forelimbs whose fingers had a certain degree of opposability. We have there-

fore identified the two abilities that, nowadays combined, result as our char-
acteristic prerogative: upright stance and manual dexterity.
Manual dexterity is a typical ability of animals that need to grasp objects,
like arboreal mammals, the most characteristic being primates. These are
equipped with adaptations for arboreal living (stereoscopic vision, opposable
thumb, etc.). The oldest known representative, from a partially preserved skel-
eton, has been dated to about 55 million years ago, just a decade after the
dinosaur extinction.
The opposable thumb is a primate hallmark, but no monkey can touch the
pad of the same hand’s fingers with its thumb. Although some australopithe-
cines (the “robust” type belonging to Paranthropus) are thought to have had
hand anatomy capable of producing simple stone tools [73], human manual
dexterity has evolved well beyond the possibilities of primitive hominids and
ancestors.
136 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 15.8 Stenonychosaurus (76 My) and Dale Russell’s study for the “dinosauroid”
(sculptures by Ron Seguin)

This phase brought us to the threshold of our genus’ appearance, a leap of

several tens of millions of years compared to the previous phase. But this is
justified by the occurrence of two characters that, although they can develop
independently, must work together (and reach a relatively sophisticated evo-
lutionary level) to drive evolution towards human-like intelligence: the prob-
ability is estimated between 0.005 and 0.01 every 500,000 years with a
microcatastrophe time limit of 10,000,000 years.
 15 Macrointerval C: The “Solution” of Intelligence Deduced… 137

PHASE 6
a6 b6 ΔT6 ΔT06
0.005 0.01 500,000 10,000,000

15.8 The Seventh Phase; The Change in Diet

and the Growth of the Brain
The brain requires a high energy cost as well as a significant protein contribu-
tion for its constitution. Its development and increase have required a strong
supply of valuable resources to allow adequate growth.
For this reason, the anthropologist Craig B. Stanford in 2001 [105] hypoth-
esized that a dietary shift from the herbivore/omnivore diet typical of austra-
lopithecines to a more carnivorous one was important for human evolution.
The abundance of animal carcasses killed by numerous African Plio/Pleistocene
carnivores, combined with hominids’ gregarious habits (which would have
allowed them to successfully contest prey from mammalian predators), may
have allowed a population access to a more carnivorous diet (Fig. 15.9).
The significant protein intake obtained could have favored an increase in
brain size compared to other primate populations. The proposal sparked vari-
ous reactions, but beyond the hypothesis’ correctness, if we compare the first
representatives of our genus with their australopithecine precursors,

Fig. 15.9 Male of Homo erectus (2–0.6 My)

138 E. Mieli et al.

important morphological changes are noticeable, such as a relative reduction

of the masticatory apparatus (a shift from a more fibrous diet to one poorer in
these foods) as well as an increase in brain volume.
Data in hand, even without hypothesizing our ancestors’ exact diet, it is
possible to find a correlation between a dietary change and the brain
increase that occurred toward the beginning of the Pleistocene, between
2.5 and 1.5 million years ago. The timeframe in which it is realized is rela-
tively short, less than 1 million years: the probability is estimated between
0.05 and 0.1 every 500,000 years with a microcatastrophe time limit of
10,000,000 years.

PHASE 7
a7 b7 ΔT7 ΔT07
0.05 0.1 500,000 10,000,000

15.9 The Eighth Phase; The Organization

of the Brain on Abstract Thought
The next phase involves the ability to conceive abstract thoughts. Although a
certain number of animals possess some capacity for abstraction, for example,
the ability to handle numbers and different quantities of objects, human pos-
sibilities go far beyond. The abilities related to cognitive functions, therefore
to calculation, abstract thought and also to language, are linked to the devel-
opment of the frontal lobes (Fig. 15.10) and the convolutions of these brain
regions [41].
If we evaluate the evolution of the human brain from our australopithecine
ancestors using appropriate endocranial casts, we observe that starting from
Homo erectus, the organ significantly developed in the aforementioned regions.
In particular, in modern humans, brain evolution is manifested mainly by an
enlargement at the coronal cranial suture.
The increase in endocranial capacity was achieved differently by Neanderthal
man, Homo neanderthalensis, and modern man, Homo sapiens. If we compare
the skulls of these two species, we notice that the Sapiens’ is more “rounded”,
taller than the other, which is more elongated antero-posteriorly.
Apart from brain proportions, what would be the first manifestations of
human abstract thought? It is difficult to answer this question. However, it is
possible they already manifested with H. erectus. A particular artifact found on
the island of Java is indeed attributed to this species: a mollusk shell decorated
with a “zigzag” pattern, made without any apparent practical reason [110].
 15 Macrointerval C: The “Solution” of Intelligence Deduced… 139

Fig. 15.10 Simplified diagram showing the human brain, with the various brain lobes
indicated (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

No symbolic activity has yet been associated with Neanderthal man, although
at the brain level, all the conditions for realizing such conceptions seem to be
met. Perhaps it was just a matter of time...
Despite current abstract abilities far exceeding the decorated shell illus-
trated previously, it is quite possible that starting from the emergence of
H. erectus, certain human populations acquired the ability of abstract thought.
In this case, a few hundred thousand years would have been enough for its
establishment: the probability is estimated between 0.5 and 0.9 every 500,000
years with a microcatastrophe time limit of 10,000,000 years.

PHASE 8
a8 b8 ΔT8 ΔT08
0.5 0.9 500,000 10,000,000

15.10 The Ninth Phase; The Birth of Articulated

Language and Technique
One of the characteristics that distinguishes us from all other animals is
undoubtedly articulated language. Although great apes are capable of learning
rudimentary sign languages to communicate with their tutors, they are unable,
due to their anatomy, to express themselves with the sound range and articu-
lations that we have.
140 E. Mieli et al.

The morphological characteristics that allow us such performance are

linked to the morphology of the larynx and the hyoid bone [12], located at
the base of the tongue, between the jaw and the thyroid cartilage of the larynx
itself (Fig. 15.11).
It is not easy to accurately reconstruct the anatomy of the vocal region from
disarticulated bone remains. However, the hyoid bone of a fossil hominid can
be found, studied, and compared with ours. In particular, one belonging to
H. erectus has been discovered.
Its morphology is very reminiscent of a modern hyoid bone, although some
minor differences suggest a more restricted modulation of the vocal tract that
probably limited the use of articulated language. A Neanderthal hyoid bone is
also known [5], even more similar to that of modern humans than H. erectus.
The fossil evidence suggests, therefore, that the ability to emit complex vocal-
izations existed at least from the common ancestor between Neanderthals and
modern humans, even if this does not mean they could already communicate
like us.
Regarding technology, we know H. neanderthalensis was capable of a refined
lithic industry, not inferior to that of H. sapiens of the time, although the lat-
ter also expressed themselves at other levels, including cave painting (but we
do not know if all known cave paintings were made by our species!). Naturally,
we were still far from modern technical capabilities.

Fig. 15.11 Morphology and position of the hyoid bone (in red)
 15 Macrointerval C: The “Solution” of Intelligence Deduced… 141

However, articulated language was necessary to explain and transmit (first

orally and then in writing) the technical instructions for producing increas-
ingly complicated objects and, therefore, to advance technology from prehis-
tory to current levels. It was also necessary to be able to express abstract
thought: the probability is estimated between 0.4 and 0.8 every 500,000 years
with a microcatastrophe time limit of 10,000,000 years.

PHASE 9
a9 b9 ΔT9 ΔT09
0.4 0.8 500,000 10,000,000

Thus, at the end of these last nine stages, we have arrived at the emergence
of H. sapiens, the only species that will show itself endowed with the intelli-
gence described at the end of the initial section of Macrointerval C. Thanks to
its characteristics, our species has acquired a technical capacity beyond all
prediction; to the point of being able to send messages capable of reaching
solar systems far away from ours. Naturally, all this did not happen overnight;
it took a couple of hundred thousand years from its origin.

15.11 Evaluation of Probabilities at Each Stage

We have thus obtained the 36 input values to insert in STEP 1 of the algo-
rithm for calculating the lognormal statistical distribution of Maccone
(Table 15.1). The Fig. 15.12 shows the lognormal distribution related to mac-
rointerval C.

Table 15.1 Fifth Drake—macrointerval C: The 36 values of the frequencies aj and bj

minimum and maximum, of the time ∆Tj of observation and the time ∆T0j of micro-
catastrophe, for each phase described in the previous paragraph.

Phase Description aj bj ∆T j ∆T 0j
1 Increase in metazoan size 0.02 0.04 500,000 10,000,000
2 Limb development 0.01 0.02 500,000 10,000,000
3 Conquest of land 0.02 0.05 500,000 10,000,000
4 Differentiation of terrestrial animals 0.50 1.00 500,000 10,000,000
5 Acquisition of sociality 0.40 0.80 500,000 10,000,000
6 Upright stance and manual dexterity 0.005 0.01 500,000 10,000,000
7 Diet change and brain growth 0.05 0.10 500,000 10,000,000
8 Organization of abstract thought 0.50 0.90 500,000 10,000,000
9 Birth of articulated language and 0.40 0.80 500,000 10,000,000
technique
142 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 15.12 Fifth Drake—macrointerval C: A lognormal distribution Φ of the process in

the medium period ∆T0: the average value is 5.89 ⋅ 10−3, the standard deviation is
2.19 ⋅ 10−3 (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

Reporting, with the method of the three previous cases, the probability of
ETC 2.19 ⋅ 10−3 of the medium period ∆T0 equal to 90 My over the long
period ∆T equal to 500 My, we obtain the probability of macrointerval B:

fC = 3.43%

included between the two minimum and maximum values

fC min =1.25% and fC max = 5.66%.

As you can see, unlike the two macrointervals A and B, in this last one the
probability is decidedly more contained.
 16
Evaluation of the Total Probability:
The Fifth Drake Parameter

Having defined the probabilities of the three macrointervals A, B and C nec-

essary to describe with more accuracy the probability of intelligent life start-
ing from bacteria, we now combine them into a new total lognormal that will
represent the fifth Drake parameter.
We must note that applying Maccone’s lognormal method to only three
parameters cannot be rigorous because it does not respect the conditions of
the central limit theorem which ensures that a sufficiently high number of
random variables converge towards a normal (in our case lognormal) distribu-
tion; however, since in this context we are only looking for the order of mag-
nitude of the Drake parameters, we believe this method is fully justified.
We have, in conclusion, obtained six input values to be inserted in STEP 2
of the algorithm for calculating the statistical distribution lognormal of
Maccone (Table 16.1).
We note that for the macro intervals, we skip STEP 1 entirely because we
have the final frequencies Aj and Bj of STEP 2. Furthermore, the time frame
for the realization of the entire process is the sum of the three times of macro
catastrophe of the macro intervals A, B and C or:

0.5 Gy ⋅ 3 = 1.5 Gy

Table 16.1 Fifth Drake—TOTAL: The six values of the frequencies Aj and Bj minimum
and maximum in the total time of 1.5 Gy
Aj Bj
1 Eukaryotes 0.289 0.709
2 Metazoa 0.597 0.944
3 Homo 0.013 0.057

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144 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 16.1 Fifth Drake—TOTAL: The lognormal distribution Φ of the process in the
medium term ∆T0: the average value is 1.34 ⋅ 10−2 , the standard deviation is 7.17 ⋅ 10−3
(IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

The Fig. 16.1 shows the lognormal distribution of the entire process A , B and
C that directly provides the final values of the fifth parameter without having
to transform the probabilities from medium to long term. The final value of
the fifth parameter is fi = 1.34% included between the minimum and maxi-
mum values:

DRAKE 5
fi min fi max
6.0·10-3 2.1·10-2
 17
Considerations on the Fifth Parameter

Unlike the fourth Drake parameter, which we calculated around 0.5 (proba-
bility of 50%) over a period of 100 million years in the previous section, the
fifth Drake parameter is just above 0.01 (probability of 1%) over a period of
1500 million years (excluding GOE and NOE), therefore significantly lower.
This does not surprise us because, after all, H. sapiens is the only successful
attempt among an infinity of species that have appeared on the planet.
Moreover, the subdivision of the calculation into three macro intervals has
highlighted two things:

(a) The essential role that oxygen played in determining the timing of evolu-
tionary processes: see both the GOE and the NOE, which with their
occurrence, have accelerated the times and given a decisive impulse
towards the eukaryotes, first, and towards the metazoans, after;
(b) The bottleneck highlighted precisely in the last step, namely the onset of
intelligence whose probability was calculated around 3% in 0.5 Gy, while
neither the appearance of eukaryotes (probability of 50% in 0.5 Gy), nor
that of metazoans (probability of 85% in 0.5 Gy) have proved particu-
larly problematic from our calculations.

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 18
The Oxygen Curve

At this point we want to make some considerations on the well-known curve

of oxygen growth reported in Fig. 18.1.
We have found, in the calculation of the fourth parameter, a good probabil-
ity of development of prokaryotes (50%) in 100 My, starting from at least
3.7 Gy. The positioning of the first photosynthetic prokaryotes is controver-
sial, but in any case certainly the first oxygen produced was reabsorbed by
oxidative chemical phenomena.
When these ceased, the oxygen released by prokaryotes began to invade the
planet, reaching about 1% of the current value at 2.1 Gy (GOE). We found

Fig. 18.1 The curve depicted shows the rise in the concentration of oxygen in the
atmosphere during the GOE from 0% to 0.2% between 2.4 and 1.9 Gy and, during the
NOE, between 0.8 and 0.5 Gy. The green and red curve represents the minimum and
maximum value hypothesized (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

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148 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 18.2 Light penetration I(L) between the depth L and the depth L + dL on a m2 of
sea surface. The small gray discs represent the cells in suspension (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli,
Valli, Maccone)

the same probability of about 50% for the emergence of eukaryotes, but in
500 My from 2.1 Gy. Once these also became photosynthetic (around
1.5 Gy?), the percentage of oxygen began to rise significantly, reaching values
slightly lower than the current ones around 0.7 Gy (NOE). Let’s now try to
estimate the growth rate of oxygen in these two key events, the GOE and the
NOE. Let’s consider Fig. 18.2 which describes a marine environment from
altitude 0 (sea level) towards the depth L. The light intensity I (W/m2) will be
equal to I(L) = I(0) ≡ I0 on the sea surface and equal to I(L) at the depth L.
For each square meter of seabed, between the depth L and L + dL, the
number of photosynthetic cells in the volume element will be equal to:

N f = 1m 2 ⋅ dL ⋅ ρ

where ρ is the density, or the number of cells per m3. Therefore, let r be the
linear dimension of the cells and ω their absorption coefficient (between 0
and 1; 0 for totally transparent cells and 1 for totally opaque cells), the effec-
tive cross section Seff (or the one that contributes to the phenomenon) of the
cells present in the direction of the light rays on 1 m2, will be:

Seff = 1m 2 ⋅ ω ⋅ ρ ⋅ r 2 ⋅ dL
 18 The Oxygen Curve 149

Consequently, ω ⋅ ρ ⋅ r2 ⋅ dL is the percentage of darkening, due to the dL

layer, of the light intensity I(L) to depth L; so the light intensity beyond this
layer will be:

(
I ( L + dL ) = I ( L ) ⋅ 1 − ( ω ⋅ ρ ⋅ r 2 ⋅ dL ) )
2
I + dI = I − I ⋅ ω ⋅ ρ ⋅ r ⋅ dL
dI = −I ⋅ ω ⋅ ρ ⋅ r 2 ⋅ dL
dI / I = −ω ⋅ ρ ⋅ r 2 ⋅ dL

Integrating both members between 0 (sea level) and L, we have:

ln ( I ) − ln ( I 0 )  = − ω ⋅ ρ ⋅ r 2 ⋅ L
ln ( I / I 0 ) = − ω ⋅ ρ ⋅ r 2 ⋅ L

and, finally, by extracting the exponential:

I / I 0 = exp ( −ωρr 2 L )
I ( L ) = I 0 exp ( −ωρr 2 L )

In this way, solving the differential equation for separation of the variables,
the light intensity (W m–2) is obtained which comes to depth L starting from
intensity I0 to sea level:
2
L
I ( I 0 , L,r ,ρ ,ω ) = I 0 e −ωρτ

Therefore, similarly to cells suspended in the liquid, the water molecules

themselves also reduce the intensity according to a similar law; thus the com-
plete equation of the reduction of light intensity caused by the water and the
cells in suspension is written by adding, to the exponent, the factor due to the
absorption of water molecules:

(
− ωρτ 2 + ϕ L )
I ( I 0 ,L,r ,ρ ,ω ,ϕ ) = I 0 e

We now estimate the world marine surface S interested in the phenomenon

of photosynthesis: it is the coastal area of the planet whose waters do not
exceed 20 m depth; that is:

S = C ⋅ D ⋅ ζ = 109 m 2
150 E. Mieli et al.

Having place:

C = 108 m extension of the continental coasts

D = 102 m Thickness of the continental coast, where the depth does not
exceed 20 m
ζ = 10−1
fraction of the coasts not directly above the seabed

The dW light power, captured by photosynthetic cells with depth L on the

entire surface S, will instead be:

( )
− ωρτ 2 +ϕ L
dW = S ⋅ dL ⋅ ρ ⋅ α ⋅ r 2 ⋅ I 0 ⋅ e

where α is the fraction of the cell surface interested in photosynthetic absorp-

tion. We observe that α must necessarily be less than the absorption coeffi-
cient ω which measures all luminous absorption, both photosynthetic
and not.
If we add the contribution of all the layers of the seabed, we obtain the total
power absorbed by the cells. To obtain this sum, we ideally integrate the latest
formula obtained for dW between 0 and +∞ compared to depth L (obviously
the light absorption is practically zero beyond a certain depth). It is obtained
for total power W:

W (ρ ) =
( S •α • r • I ) • ρ
2
0

(ω • r ) • ρ + ϕ
2

If we now make ρ tend to infinity, we obtain the value of saturation of the

power captured for photosynthesis (turbid waters):

S • α • I0
Ws =
ω

This is obviously valid for ω ≠ 0, which is the limit of totally transparent cells
(moreover, if ω goes to 0, α, that is less than ω, must do the same, but their
quotient does not). As we should have expected, this value is independent of
the size of the cells that carry out photosynthesis (saturation value), and of the
water solution coefficient φ.
To get I0 (effective photosynthetic power per m2), we must multiply the
three factors:
 18 The Oxygen Curve 151

Wbs = 103 (W/m2) solar base power to the ground

η = 0.154 Average sun efficiency in the year
γ = 0.3 Visible light fraction used

Getting:
I0 = 46.2 (W/m2) Photosynthetic power for m2 effective
Therefore:

α
Ws = • Wbf
ω
Having place:
Wbf ≡ S ⋅ I0 = 4.62 ⋅ 1010 W Basic photosynthesis power
To obtain the energy necessary to produce an O2 molecule, we must mul-
tiply the following factors:

νf = 5.45 ⋅ 1014 (s−1) Medium light frequency in photosynthesis

h = 6.63 ⋅ 10−34 (J ⋅ s) Plank constant
n = 10 Number of photons for each O2 molecule

Getting:
ε = 3.62 ⋅ 10−18 (J) Energy for oxygen molecule produced
Let’s now give an estimate of the oxygen molecules present after the GOE
and after the NOE starting from the data of the current atmosphere.

S⊕ = 5.3 ⋅ 1014 (m2) Earth surface

Ma = 104 (kg/m2) Air mass for m2
pGOE = 0.2% GOE oxygen percentage
pNOE = 20% NOE oxygen percentage
MOss = 2 ⋅ 10−26 (kg) Mass oxygen molecule

There will be the following values:

N GOE = S T ⋅ M a ⋅ pGOE / M Oss = 5.3 ⋅ 1041 Number of oxygen molecules GOE

N NOE = S T ⋅ M a ⋅ p NOE / M Oss = 5.3 ⋅ 1043 Number of oxygen molecules NOE
E

We just have to try to evaluate the oxygen produced by a world cyanobacteria

population and a similar population of photosynthetic eukaryotes. To do this,
152 E. Mieli et al.

we must estimate the two optical-structural parameters for prokaryotes and

eukaryotes, that is α (fraction of the photoactive surface of the cell) and ω
(luminous absorption coefficient of the cell). We therefore place the following
values (where the indices ‘p’ and ‘e’ indicate respectively ‘prokaryotes’ and
‘eukaryotes’):

αp = 1.0 ⋅ 10−2
αe = 4.0 ⋅ 10−2
ωp = 5.0 ⋅ 10−1
ωe = 1.0 ⋅ 10−1

where we chose to attribute to the eukaryotes a fraction of photosynthetically

active surface four times greater than the prokaryotes, given that the eukary-
otes could probably be more efficient; in addition, it was chosen to attribute
to the eukaryotes an absorption coefficient one-fifth of the prokaryotes, given
that the eukaryotes are without cell wall.
Finally, remembering that the calculated value of the total power (J/s) cap-
tured for photosynthesis is:

α
Ws = • Wb ( J / s )
ω

and energy, for oxygen molecule produced, is:

ε = 3.62 ⋅ 10−18 ( J )

The total number of oxygen molecules produced to the second is obtained for
prokaryotes and eukaryotes:

αp
• Wb
ωp  molecules 
N Oss proc = = 2.56 • 1026  
ε  second 

αe
• Wb
ωe  molecules 
N Oss euc = = 5.11 • 1027  
ε  second 
 18 The Oxygen Curve 153

Taking into account that in a million years, there are 1 My = 3.15 × 1013 (s),
the minimum time of formation of the GOE and NOE is respectively:

TGOE = N GOE / ( N Oss proc ⋅ 3.15 × 1013 ) = 66 My

TNOE = N NOE / ( N Oss euc ⋅ 3.15 × 1013 ) = 330 My

As you can see, even if photosynthetic eukaryotes are more efficient than their
corresponding prokaryotes, the quantity of oxygen of the NOE is 100 times
higher; therefore, the time of realization of the NOE remains higher than five
times. Obviously, we did not consider the phenomena of reabsorption of oxy-
gen (oxidation, breathing of the heterotrophic, etc.) that expands the esti-
mated times.
 Part III
Drake’s Social Parameters: fc and fl

The sixth and seventh parameters of Drake are rightly traditionally defined as
the social parameters and complete the descriptive picture of a potential galac-
tic civilization. For example: are we sure that an alien civilization wants to
communicate with us? (Fig. III.1). Obviously, addressing these topics is inevi-
tably less solid than the previous ones as it relies on plausible hypotheses
without any experimental confirmation.

Fig. III.1 Are we sure that aliens want to communicate?

 19
Sixth Drake: Fraction of Planets Where Life
Decides to Communicate

As mentioned in the introduction, the sixth parameter of Drake, in this work,

represents only the fraction of civilizations that freely decide to communicate
and not to hide.
While the original sixth parameter intended to count civilizations that
become technological and communicative, we have delegated this aspect to
the fifth parameter through the definition of intelligence, derived from
Kardashev, of a K at least equal to 0.7 (ours).
Additionally, we have shifted to the seventh parameter all those cases in
which civilizations ARE FORCED or induced not to communicate and,
therefore, cease to be visible.
What remains in the sixth parameter is the DELIBERATE social choice of
galactic civilizations not to communicate from the beginning of their history.
On such an elusive topic, we do not feel able to express scientific opinions and
assign a probability of 50% with a deviation of 10%.

DRAKE 6
fc min fc max
4.0·10-1 6.0·10-1

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 20
Seventh Drake: Temporal Fraction
of the Duration of a Civilization

With the seventh parameter, we move into a slightly different context from
the previous ones because we have to consider not the probability of an event
occurring, but the duration of the same event. The lognormal Φ(X0) function
of the compound probability X0 is transformed into another distribution
function, Fp(ΔT), a function of time ΔT, the duration of the galactic civiliza-
tion, and the confidence interval p, which we will define later.
The mathematical problems end here, while the challenges of choosing the
input data remain to be faced. It is a matter of hypothesizing which events,
completely unrelated to the particular planetary context, can constitute uni-
versal bottlenecks that endanger any galactic civilization. We must then also
fix the probability of survival and the duration ΔT0j of each challenge, beyond
which the danger is overcome. This results in the mathematical framework
that we will describe in the following sections.
Finally, we reiterate that we have slightly encroached upon Drake’s sixth
parameter (the percentage of civilizations that choose to communicate), as
can be seen from the fourth and seventh challenges (respectively, sponta-
neous involution and the point Ω). However, this is not a true misunder-
standing because in this context we have mainly analyzed the causes that,
in some way, lead civilizations to no longer communicate AFTER A
PERIOD OF COMMUNICATION, leaving to the sixth parameter the
analysis of the socio-cultural motivations that lead them to voluntarily iso-
late themselves from the beginning of their history, always hiding
from others.

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160 E. Mieli et al.

20.1 Is Gott’s Delta-T Argument Applicable

to the Duration of Galactic Civilizations?
In 1993, astrophysicist Richard Gott published an article titled “Implications
of the Copernican principle for our future prospects” [38] in which he
attempted to calculate the probable duration of the human race before its
inevitable extinction. The genesis of the article began in 1969 when Gott
visited Berlin and the infamous Wall. Gott applied mathematical reasoning to
try to predict the lifespan of the Wall. He had not visited it in the year of its
construction (1961) nor in the year of its demolition (1989), but AT SOME
RANDOM POINT DURING ITS EXISTENCE. It was therefore reason-
able to assume that his 1969 visit occurred within the middle two quarters of
the Wall’s lifespan with a 50% probability. If the visit was at the beginning of
the second quarter (only the first quarter had passed), the Wall still had 3/4 of
its life ahead, meaning it would stand three times longer than the time elapsed
since construction. If at the end of the third quarter, the Wall had only 1/3 of
its lifespan remaining compared to the time already passed. At that point, the
Wall was 8 years old, and Gott concluded there was a 50% chance the Cold
War symbol had between 2.7 and 24 years left. As we know, the Wall was
demolished 20 years and a few months after Gott’s visit, perfectly within his
predicted range. According to Gott, this analysis can predict any temporal
event’s duration, provided the observer positions themselves randomly within it.
We’ve given the classic 50% reference probability (p = 1/2) example, but
we can extend it to any p value. In that case, the ratio between future and past
lifespan is expressed by:

⎧1 + p
ΔT future |1 - p max
|
={
ΔTpast | 1 - p min
|⎩ 1 + p

In the case of human civilization’s duration with p = 1/2 and a duration so far
of about 200,000 years, a minimum future value of about 70,000 years and
a maximum of 600,000 years would be obtained.
But is this approach correct? In our opinion, NO, for two reasons:

Reason A) It violates the main prerequisite of Gott’s reasoning—the sup-

posed randomness of the chosen moment for calculation. While Gott’s Berlin
visit was undoubtedly unrelated to the Wall’s history, in a galactic civilization’s
case, the moment Gott’s question is posed can only be immediately after the
 20 Seventh Drake: Temporal Fraction of the Duration of a Civilization 161

formulation of abstract mathematical thought, a thousand years more or less.

Therefore, this is not any moment of our civilization but the era immediately
following the birth of abstract math—the era of Galilei, Einstein, and Gott
himself. The delta-T reasoning cannot be applied and, as we will see in the
conclusions, it is wrong by excess or defect depending on whether we intend
to analyze the entire species’ duration or just the technological civilization.

Reason B) not only must the chosen calculation moment be accidental

within the process’s life, but all the temporal intervals must be equivalent, i.e.,
the outline conditions (such as human behavior) must remain unchanged. As
we will see, this is never true for a complex technological society.

So we will not follow Gott’s delta-T reasoning path but instead reformulate
Maccone’s distribution function applied to the duration ΔT.

20.2 The Calculation of the Distribution Curve

of the Duration of a Galactic Civilization
As in the previous Drake parameters, we proceed to define in order the math-
ematical magnitudes used:

ΔT0j it is the time of the bottleneck or chal-

lenge phase, that is the average time
of permanence of the risk conditions
of phase j before its definitive
overcoming
Aj, Bj these are the minimum and maxi-
mum probabilities, of the variable Xj ,
of survival of the galactic civilization
in the period ∆T0j of phase j
B j ( lnB j - 1) - A j ( lnA j - 1)
μ≡ Σ
j Bj - Aj
it is the so-called logarithmic mean of
the lognormal distribution of Maccone

A jB j ( ln B j - ln A j ) ⎫ it is the so-called logarithmic vari-

2
⎧
|
σ ≡ Σ 1-
2 |
ance of the lognormal distribution
| ( B j- A j ) |
2
J
⎩ ⎭ of Maccone
2
( ln ( X0 )- μ ) It is the Maccone lognormal distri-
1 1 -
Ф ( X0 ) ≡ e
2
• 2σ
bution function of the overall prob-
X0 2π σ ability X0
162 E. Mieli et al.

ΔT0 = ΣΔT0j
j
it is the total time of risk conditions
sum of the individual ∆T0j

At this point, from the three input values for each phase Aj , Bj , and ∆T0j ,
applying the lognormal formula, we would get the average <X0> and the vari-
ance σ(X0) of the random variable X0. However, these are the average and the
deviation of the probability of overcoming ALL the bottlenecks in the total
time ∆T0 , while now we want, given an appropriate confidence value of the
survival probability p (for example the 50%), the average and the deviation of
another random variable which is the survival time ∆Tp of the civilization.
We then proceed in the following way to obtain the distribution with
respect to the random variable ∆Tp function of X0; let’s assume:

ΔTp
≡δ
ΔT0

δ is the fraction of time relative to ∆T0 for which we impose our survival
probability p. Obviously, the survival probability to the challenge (contravari-
ant with respect to time) in time ∆Tp will be:

< X0 >δ = p

Extracting the natural logarithm and isolating ∆Tp we get:

⎧ ⎫ ln p ln p
ΔTp = | ΣΔT0 j | • = ΔT0 •
⎩ j ⎭ ln X 0 ln X 0

Now, for convenience, let’s set:

⎧-ΔT0 ln p = C > 0
{
⎩ ΔTp = y > 0

The previous equation can be succinctly written as:

y = -C / ln ( X 0 )

Note that we have moved from the average value <X0> to the complete ran-
dom variable X0. By reversing the last expression, we get:
 20 Seventh Drake: Temporal Fraction of the Duration of a Civilization 163

C
-
X0 = e y

which is a monotonically increasing function. Then, according to the theorem

of distribution of a function of a random variable, the new distribution for the
variable y = ΔTp is obtained from the lognormal distribution Φ(X0) by sub-
stituting the just found value of X0 as a function of y and multiplying every-
thing by the derivative of X0 always as a function of y. That is:

⎧ - Cy ⎫ ⎧ - Cy C ⎫
Fp ( y ) = Ф | e | • | e • 2 |
| | | y |⎭
⎩ ⎭ ⎩

Substituting the known values of y and C, we have:

⎧ ΔTΔ0Tln p ⎫ ΔTΔ0Tln p ⎧ - ΔT0 ln p ⎫

Fp ( ΔTp ) = Ф | e p | • e p •|
| | | ΔTp 2 ||
⎩ ⎭ ⎩ ⎭

And finally, in a more compact form:

⎧ 1⎫
⎧ ΔΔTT0 ⎫ ΔΔTT0 | ΔT0 ln p |
Fp ( ΔTp ) = Ф | p p |• p p •| |
| | | ΔT p |
2
⎩ ⎭ | |
⎩ ⎭

This is our distribution function of the duration of galactic civilizations. Once

the input values of all the phases/challenges Aj, Bj,, and ΔT0j, are fixed, we
will calculate <ΔTp> and σ(ΔTp), from the very definitions of mean and vari-
ance, using numerical methods. The curves shown in Fig. 20.1 demonstrate,
for example, in box A, the classic Maccone lognormal function with respect
to the fixed time value of ΔT0 = 450, 000 years determined by the sum of all
critical phases; box B instead represents the distribution functions of the
duration ∆Tp of a galactic civilization, calculated from the Maccone lognor-
mal function, and imposing survival probabilities of the civilization progres-
sively from 40% to 60%: it is evident the decrease in time ∆Tp as the chosen
survival probability increases.
We verify this result by finding the location of the maximum points of the
curves shown in Fig. 20.1b. We remember that the abscissas of these points
are not exactly the average values of the curves because they are not perfectly
symmetrical, but we can still make this approximation.
164 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 20.1 Seventh Drake—(a): Classic Maccone lognormal function; (b): distribution
functions of the duration ∆Tp (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

First, we calculate the derivative with respect to ∆Tp of our distribution

function F(∆Tp). The calculation is a bit laborious, but after a few steps
(APPENDIX C), we will obtain the derived function shown below:

⎧ 1⎫
d ⎧ ΔΔTT0 | ΔT0 ln p |
⎫ ΔΔTT0
F ( ΔTp ) = -Ф | p p |• p p
•| 2 |
d ΔTp | || σ ΔT p |
4
⎩ ⎭| |
⎩ ⎭
⎾⎧ ⎧ 1 ⎫ ΔT ⎫ ⎧1⎫ ⏋
• || ln | | 0 + μ | ln | | ΔT0 - 2ΔTpσ 2 |
|
|⎿⎩ ⎩ p ⎭ ΔTp |
⎭ ⎩ p⎭ |⏌

Setting the condition of the stationary point of the derivative (we do not
report, for brevity, the condition on the second derivative <0):

d
F ( ΔTp ) = 0
d ΔTp

we obtain the second degree equation with y = ΔTp:

2
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
( -2σ ) y + | μ y0 ln ⎧| 1p ⎫| | y + | y0 ln ⎧| 1p ⎫| | = 0
2 2

⎩ ⎩ ⎭⎭ ⎩ ⎩ ⎭⎭

Which has a unique solution for positive values of ΔTp.

 20 Seventh Drake: Temporal Fraction of the Duration of a Civilization 165

The parametric coordinates, with respect to the parameter p, of the maxi-

mum points are then:

⎧ ⎛1⎫
| ΔTpMAX = C • ln | | ΔT0
|| ⎩ p⎭
{
| F ( ΔTpMAX ) = D • ⎛ 1 ⎫
1
| ln | | ΔT0
|⎩ ⎩ p⎭

and, consequently, from the first of the two:

⎧ ΔTpMAX
| p = e- τ
{
|⎩τ = C Δ ΔT0

having set the positive constants:

⎧ ⎛ μ 2 + 8σ 2 + μ ⎫
| C =| |>0
| | 4σ 2 |
⎩ ⎭
|
| ⎾ ⎛ ⎫ ⏋
2
| 1 4σ 2

{ exp | - 2 | +μ| |
| σ | | |
| 2 ⎩ μ + 8σ + μ
2 2
⎿ ⎭ ⏌
|D = 2
>0
| ⎛ μ 2 + 8σ 2 + μ ⎫
| 2πσ | |
|⎩ | 4 σ 2
|
⎩ ⎭

The product C ⋅ D = cost > 0, therefore:

⎾ ⎧ ⎫ ⏋
2
1 4σ 2
exp | - 2 | +μ| |
| 2σ | μ 2 + 8σ 2 + μ | |
⎿ ⎩ ⎭ ⏌
ΔTpMAX • F ( ΔTpMAX ) = C • D ==
⎧ μ 2 + 8σ 2 + μ ⎫
2πσ | |
| 4σ 2
|
⎩ ⎭
= cost

Therefore, the location of the maximum points of our time distributions will
be a branch of an equilateral hyperbola as we expected (Fig. 20.2a).
166 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 20.2 (a) Seventh Drake: The equilateral descent of the maximum of the duration
distribution functions of civilization (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone). (b) Seventh
Drake: The exponential descent of the probability of survival over time ΔT with a
τ = 72, 300 years approximately (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

This means that, analyzing the two trivial limit cases, the certainty of sur-
vival (p → 1− or the probability that tends to 1 from the left) makes our time
distribution function diverge into a Dirac delta at the origin of time, which in
layman’s terms means that only the present is certain, while for infinitesimal
probabilities (p → 0+ or the probability that tends to 0 from the right) both
the duration of civilization and its deviation diverge, which means that the
civilization could last an arbitrary time. Only the intermediate cases, for
example (p = 0, 5), give us useful information for our distribution of lifetimes.
The Fig. 20.2b is, trivially, the exponential descent of the probability of sur-
vival over time ΔT with, for example, τ = 72, 300.

20.3 The Seven Challenges of Galactic

Civilizations (and the Plan B)
Now we need to solve two difficulties:

(A) imagine future scenarios even remote in space and time

(B) decouple such scenarios from our planetary and cultural context

In other words: what challenges could ANY evolving galactic civilization

likely face to endure over time? We hypothesized the following seven risk fac-
tors and a Plan B for each:
 20 Seventh Drake: Temporal Fraction of the Duration of a Civilization 167

1. self-destruction due to evolutionary insufficiency

2. self-destruction due to a technological error
3. technological insufficiency to cope with planetary changes
4. spontaneous natural involution of civilization
5. artificial genetic involution of civilization
6. robotic transition ended on a dead track
7. reaching point Ω and subsequent isolation of evolved intelligence

PLAN B—interstellar travel in case of failure

The first three risks are familiar, as they are typical of a technological civili-
zation in its dawn like ours and are hotly debated today. The remaining four
are scenarios that could occur once the first three are overcome; they may
seem less fearsome because they don’t (or don’t seem to) be imminent, but
reasoning in terms of tens of thousands of years, they constitute threats as
devastating as the first ones.
Interstellar travel is the potential escape route from a hypothetical failure
with the different challenges. Since the challenges present themselves in more
or less early periods of civilization, interstellar travel is an effective escape or
not depending on the challenge it is applied to.

20.4 The First Challenge: Self-Destruction

Due to Evolutionary Insufficiency
It is inevitable that an intelligent species equipped with the instinctual and
cultural baggage that supported it in its evolutionary journey will, at a certain
point, face a sudden technological acceleration. The reason is obvious: sci-
ence, but often nature as well, does not progress gradually but proceeds in
sudden and unexpected leaps, followed by periods of relative stasis. These
accelerations are a risk (Fig. 20.3).
In our previous paragraph on Drake’s fifth parameter, we followed
Kardashev’s footsteps to catalog the level of a galactic civilization on four levels:

W1 = 1016 Watt is all the solar power that a rocky planet orbiting in its habit-
ability zone receives
W2 = 1011·W1 is all the power radiated by the star
W3 = 1011·W2 is all the power radiated by the galaxy
W4 = 1011·W3 is all the power radiated by the observable universe
168 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 20.3 Outcome of the evolutionary insufficiency to manage energy

According to this scale, the level of a civilization, which develops a total

power of WETC, is expressed by the index k = 1, 2, 3 and 4 in the subscript of
the powers WK, and it is calculated:

log10 (WETC ) - 5
K=
11

For a common animal species (including humans until two centuries ago), K
did not exceed 0.6, but for us today, it already stands at 0.7 and is continu-
ously growing. This means our access to energy is increasing, and simultane-
ously, the level of responsibility we must have in managing this level of energy
is growing. In a nutshell, a generic galactic civilization must try not to be
consumed by the fire it has discovered, especially if the energy levels involved
are planetary, as is atomic energy in our current case.
 20 Seventh Drake: Temporal Fraction of the Duration of a Civilization 169

However, a galactic civilization does not automatically have such capabili-

ties within its heritage of instincts, simply because technological changes
belong only to the last phase of its development: culture. We can only hope
that culture can channel behaviors, derived from the natural base that shaped
the species, in the right direction over time. It is a difficult task, perhaps des-
perate, but the stakes are high: survival in the immediate future. This is what
we must do in controlling nuclear weapons, and not only that.
We believe it is plausible that this passage is universal for galactic civiliza-
tions and that it is very difficult to overcome (just around 10% succeed). The
challenge arises from the moment a civilization is potentially able to express a
technology and ends when the society’s culture has defused any lingering
instincts from the natural past that can lead to self-destruction (about 100,000
years). The probability of overcoming the challenge is between 0.05 and 0.15
over a challenge time limit of 100,000 years.

CHALLENGE 1
A1 B1 ΔT01
0.05 0.15 100,000

20.5 The Second Challenge: Self-Destruction

Due to a Technological Error
This second case resembles the first, but lacks malice—even though it still
depends on poor management of acquired technology, self-destruction is due
to a misjudgment where neither the nature nor the culture of a civilization
bears responsibility. For example, a nuclear war could occur due to a mere
misunderstanding, or a disease could unintentionally spread from a research
laboratory (Fig. 20.4).
It is a challenge that can overlap temporally, even partially, with the first but
tends to arrive later when the acquired technological power is very high, the
problems seem solved, and the civilization lowers its level of control over the
potential consequences of its actions.
This passage is also inevitable for galactic civilizations and quite difficult to
overcome (around 20% succeed). The challenge presents itself from the
moment a civilization possesses mature technology and ends when the tech-
nology itself provides sufficient tools to put the civilization in safety, such as
interstellar travel capabilities. The probability of overcoming this challenge is
between 0.1 and 0.3 over a 50,000-year time limit.
170 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 20.4 Outcome of unforeseen technological errors

CHALLENGE 2
A2 B2 ΔT02
0.1 0.3 50,000

20.6 The Third Challenge: Technological

Insufficiency to Face the Planetary
Changes That Have Occurred
This phase strictly depends on Drake’s third parameter, which gives the prob-
ability for Earth-like planets to remain stably in their habitable zone. Since
the third parameter also has a statistical distribution, we must consider planets
 20 Seventh Drake: Temporal Fraction of the Duration of a Civilization 171

Fig. 20.5 Outcome of unforeseen planetary changes

subjected to traumas, even if not definitive, but still significant disruptions to

their stability during a civilization’s existence. Known examples are recurring
meteor bombardments, possible significant shifts of the planet’s rotational
axis, and severe climate changes due to geological activity (Fig. 20.5).
In this case, the only countermeasure a civilization has to face such events
is an adequate technological level, let’s say the achievement of a Kardashev
parameter between 1 and 2, which is no small feat.
This step is less common than the previous ones for galactic civilizations
(since it depends on the third parameter) and is easier to overcome (around
50% succeed). Also in this case, the challenge presents itself from the moment
a civilization possesses mature technology and ends when the technology itself
provides sufficient tools to put the civilization in safety. The probability of
overcoming this challenge is between 0.4 and 0.6 over a 20,000-year time limit.
172 E. Mieli et al.

CHALLENGE 3
A3 B3 ΔT03
0.4 0.6 20,000

20.7 The Fourth Challenge:

Spontaneous Involution
With this parameter, we move into the true future—into scenarios less familiar
to science and more explored by science fiction. The fact that a civilization must
necessarily progress technologically is certainly our conviction, dictated by the
continuous presence of environmental pressures, often caused by ourselves,
which favors a technologically advanced civilization over a less advanced one,
WHATEVER THE PRICE TO PAY. Even in our small terrestrial civilization,
we have learned that this is not always true, or rather, it is not possible to talk
about technological progress without considering the price to pay (Fig. 20.6).
Obviously, we do not think galactic civilizations are massively exposed to a
flower children syndrome, but in cases where external and internal dangers

Fig. 20.6 Involved alien community

 20 Seventh Drake: Temporal Fraction of the Duration of a Civilization 173

seem less imminent, the choice not to progress, and therefore not to risk, is
possible. In those cases, the civilization could deliberately choose never to
become an evolved ETC (extra-terrestrial civilization) with a high Kardashev
parameter, but to live comfortably with its own K between 0.6 and 0.7 with-
out much trauma and little chance of being identified.
There is also the case that this involution phenomenon is determined by the
progressive robotization of activities at the expense of the initiatives of the civi-
lization that originally created those automatisms. In short, if machines do
everything, what is the purpose of changing, evolving, exploring and, above all,
risking? A civilization could inadvertently stagnate and remain stagnant [42].
We also consider this an uncommon step for galactic civilizations that is
easy to overcome (around 80% succeed). The challenge arises when a civili-
zation possesses mature enough technology to make it feel safe and ends
when it has chosen to expand beyond its own planet: the probability of over-
coming the challenge is between 0.7 and 0.9 over a challenge time limit of
30,000 years

CHALLENGE 4
A4 B4 ΔT04
0.7 0.9 30,000

20.8 The Fifth Challenge: The Artificial Genetic

Transition Ended on a Dead Track
A few years ago, we could have treated this parameter as one of the remote
science fiction scenarios. However, we must note that in 2014 the article “The
new frontier of genome engineering with CRISPR-Cas9” by Jennifer
A. Doudna and Emmanuelle Charpentier [20] was published, effectively
opening the way to precision genetic manipulation (Fig. 20.7).
This means the evaluation of this scenario overlaps with the first scenario,
which instead deals with the risk of self-destruction due to limits inherent to
the species (less elegantly said, stupidity). We therefore omit the part related to
the first parameter, as it has already been dealt with, focusing only on the
long-term consequences of a potential negative drift resulting from genetic
manipulation. The negative consequences could be as follows: unlike natural
selection which takes place over geological periods and gives the ecosystem
time to always be in balance, artificial genetic manipulation is decided rapidly,
without the certainty that the ecosystem will rebalance. A superficial use of
these technologies (we are not talking about us earthlings who will certainly
use it superficially) could lead to unwanted consequences in the medium and
174 E. Mieli et al.

long term, such as a progressive reduction in the number of individuals due to

accidental infertility or similar phenomena.
This step is probably common for galactic civilizations and quite easy to
overcome (around 70% succeed). The challenge arises from the moment a
civilization possesses sufficiently sophisticated technology (for us, it is today!)
and ends when such technology is at a high enough level that it can correct
itself if necessary. The probability of overcoming this challenge is between 0.5
and 0.8 over a 50,000-year time limit.

CHALLENGE 5
A5 B5 ΔT05
0.5 0.8 50,000

20.9 The Sixth Challenge: Transition of Finite

Artificial Intelligence onto a Dead-End Track
We cannot address this parameter without defining what we mean by Artificial
Intelligence. For this purpose, we will follow the steps of Roger Penrose with
his monumental works “The Emperor’s New Mind” [86] from 1990, and
“Shadows of the Mind” [88] from 1994, which are cornerstones on this topic
(Fig. 20.8).

Fig. 20.7 The paper of nobel laureates Jennifer A. Doudna and Emmanuelle
Charpentier, discovers of CRISPR-Cas9
 20 Seventh Drake: Temporal Fraction of the Duration of a Civilization 175

Artificial intelligence is not mere automation mentioned in the fourth chal-

lenge (robotization), but the actual birth of synthetic consciousness. Penrose
defines simple automation, which includes all machines built to date, as Weak
Artificial Intelligence (WAI), while the possibility of creating conscious
machines is defined as Strong Artificial Intelligence (SAI). The power of
Penrose’s reasoning lies in demonstrating that the second CANNOT be a
simple extension of the first—that machines, no matter how complex, BASED
ONLY ON ALGORITHMIC FUNCTIONING cannot become conscious.
The demonstration is complex, but worth a brief mention: through Gödel’s
incompleteness theorem of 1931 [36], Penrose points out that the possibility
of formulating an unprovable but true theorem, like the one constructed by
Gödel, clearly demonstrates the impossibility for a machine to do the same.
The theorem states that it is possible to construct an infinite number of TRUE
but UNPROVABLE theorems through a starting formal system and finite
number of axioms; this system would function like an algorithm. How then
does the human mind, if it functioned like an algorithm however complex,
manage to formulate a theorem like Gödel’s proof? The answer is that the
human mind is conscious, and consciousness does NOT rely on an algorithm,
but on something further. For Penrose, this is an aspect of still-controversial
quantum mechanics, namely the collapse of the quantum wave function. This
phenomenon would not occur according to the subjective Copenhagen inter-
pretation mechanism (i.e., the analyzed system decides the measurement result
at the moment of interaction with the observer), but according to a spontane-
ous, objective mechanism detached from the observer and linked to the energy
level involved. The process would occur within the microtubules of neuronal

Fig. 20.8 The emperor’s new mind, the main work of the Nobel laureate Roger
Penrose, creator the absolute separation between Strong Artificial Intelligence (SAI)
and Weak Artificial Intelligence (WAI)
176 E. Mieli et al.

cytoskeletons. As of October 2022, further confirmation of this line of

thought was provided by Christian Matthias Kerskens and David López
Pérez [53].
Without delving further into this topic, what interests us is noting that we
are far from building conscious machines; we can at most build excellent and
fast automatisms, nothing more. To build true conscious machines, we would
have to equip them with a mechanism as effective as the one present in animal
brains for the objective collapse of the quantum wave function.
All of this may seem abstract and naive, but Penrose formulated this hypoth-
esis in 1990 when it was thought Moore’s law (Fig. 20.9) on the exponential
increase of computing power would have inevitably and soon led us to artifi-
cial intelligence. After more than 30 years we only have very fast machines that
cannot make real evaluations without adequate instruction. So what are we
discussing when we talk about the transition to artificial intelligence? Certainly
not the control unit of the International Space Station or voice response sys-
tems, as stupid as a thermostat. We mean precisely that technological change

Fig. 20.9 Graph of Moore’s law on the exponential increase of computing power over
time (Wgsimon)
 20 Seventh Drake: Temporal Fraction of the Duration of a Civilization 177

giving machines access to the true mechanism of animal consciousness. If this

leap were to occur, then yes, a galactic civilization would have to face how to
manage these new synthetic consciousnesses, in the same way as in the fifth
challenge it had to face managing the artificial genetic transition.
We have learned that, while the genetic transition is already happening for
us after the CRISPR-Cas9 discovery, the transition to SAI is still far away. But
if it were to happen, what challenge would a galactic civilization face?
Science fiction is full of stories on the subject, summarized in one sentence:
a civilization would find itself having to manage the emergence of a new syn-
thetic species that potentially would have the means to dominate it. To avoid
this danger, the newborn synthetic consciousness (SAI) should be rigidly separated
from the extraordinary technological tools that instead come from automation
(WAI). The challenge is this: avoiding putting a nuclear bomb in the hands of
a conscious machine. In case of failure, the galactic civilization could be
destroyed by the emerging synthetic civilization, which then might not have
the tools or motivations to survive itself (after all, what drives a synthetic
consciousness?).
This transition has the same probabilistic and temporal characteristics as
the previous one (it doesn’t matter if the first is happening to us and the other
is not yet): the probability of overcoming the challenge is between 0.5 and 0.8
over a 50,000-year time limit.

CHALLENGE 6
A6 B6 ΔT06
0.5 0.8 50,000

20.10 The Seventh Challenge: Reaching

the point Ω
If the sixth challenge of transitioning to Strong Artificial Intelligence (SAI)
were overcome, not all problems would necessarily be solved. In 1993, the
writer and mathematician Vernor Vinge hypothesized the occurrence of a
phenomenon called the “singularity” or point Ω [113]. This refers to a real
explosion of intelligence due to transferring its development principle from
organic to synthetic bases, resulting in an acceleration of the improvement
trend—in short, a civilization designs and builds intelligent machines that in
turn design and build smarter machines, and so on (Fig. 20.10).
It’s easy to realize that, if the problem of realizing SAI and containing it
safely were solved, the destiny of a civilization could be the point Ω. The
178 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 20.10 The point Ω is the unstoppable progress of artificial consciousness, once it
has formed and acquired autonomy to improve itself

characteristic of this point or singularity is precisely to go beyond our logical-­

scientific and moral understanding. Like a black hole, of point Ω we only
know that intelligence expands at that point, and the decisions made by such
a civilization are inaccessible to us. One possible decision is to permanently
exit the radar of primitive civilizations (like ants to us) as NOT Ω and make
themselves completely invisible.
We cannot exclude the possibility of a galactic civilization reaching such an
exotic outcome, but as already said, we still know too little about the mecha-
nisms of SAI to conclude point Ω is inevitable. For this reason, overcoming
the risk of point Ω is attributed a high probability of success between 0.5 and
0.9 over a 100,000 year time limit.

CHALLENGE 7
A7 B7 ΔT07
0.5 0.9 100,000
 20 Seventh Drake: Temporal Fraction of the Duration of a Civilization 179

Table 20.1 Seventh Drake: The πj probabilities of success of the B plans related to each
of the seven challenges of the seventh parameter

j Challenge πj
1 Self-destruction due to evolutionary insufficiency 1%
2 Unintentional technological error 3%
3 Technological insufficiency to face planetary changes 5%
4 Spontaneous involution 10%
5 Artificial genetic transition ended on a dead track 20%
6 Transition of artificial intelligence ended on a dead track 20%
7 Reaching point Ω 50%

20.11 Plan B: Escape to Other Planets

and Interstellar Travel
It is reasonable to think that, in case of announced failure in one or more of
the previous challenges, galactic civilizations would try to move to other solar
systems deemed suitable. It should be emphasized that these are not planned
trips, but dictated by emergencies; therefore, their probability of success is
low, especially if the galactic civilization is not mature enough [68]. To take
into account the maturity of the civilization at the time it might attempt
interstellar travel, we have assigned variable and gradually increasing probabil-
ities πj as the hypothetical technological baggage present at the time of the
challenge in question increases.
The minimum and maximum probabilities Aj and Bj , previously defined,
are then corrected through the following formula:

A j' = A j + (1 - A j ) . π j

B j' = B j + (1 - B j ) . π j

In this way the values Aj´ and Bj´ , which take into account the B plan of
interstellar displacement, are slightly increased compared to Aj and Bj. The
assigned probabilities πj are the following (Table 20.1):

20.12 The Calculation of the Seventh

Drake Parameter
At this point we have all the elements to calculate the duration of a galactic
civilization. The Table 20.2 and the Fig. 20.11a, b show the calculation
carried out starting from the four input values for each challenge. The
180 E. Mieli et al.

Table 20.2 Seventh Drake: The 28 input values of the seventh parameter
Minimum Maximum Maximum time Chance of
probability over probability over challenge j success PLAN
time ΔT0j time ΔT0j (years) B
Challenge Aj Bj ΔT0j πj
1 0.05 0.15 100,000 1%
2 0.10 0.30 50,000 3%
3 0.40 0.60 20,000 5%
4 0.70 0.90 30,000 10%
5 0.50 0.80 50,000 20%
6 0.50 0.80 50,000 20%
7 0.50 0.90 100,000 50%

Fig. 20.11 (a) Seventh Drake: Maccone’s lognormal Φ of the probability X0 to over-
come the entire process ∆T0 (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone). (b) Seventh Drake:
Distribution F of the duration ∆T for five values of the reference probability p (IJA
14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

resulting parameter fL is nothing more than the ratio between the found
duration (about 50,000 years) and the duration of the last stellar popula-
tion (7 Ga):

fL = 7.3 . 10-6

DRAKE 7 (static civilization)

fL min fL max
3·10-6 8.3·10-6

To be fair, we must admit that up until now we have hypothesized that the
probability p0 calculated with the lognormal distribution on the total time
ΔT0 was approximately independent of time. Therefore, as we have seen, its
extrapolation to time ΔT follows a simple exponential law of the form:
p = exp ( -ΔT / τ )
 20 Seventh Drake: Temporal Fraction of the Duration of a Civilization 181

Fig. 20.12 (a) Seventh Drake: The actual decrease of the survival probability over time
∆T for the case of the seven challenges (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone). (b)
Seventh Drake: The actual distribution function of the survival probability over time ∆T
for the case of the seven challenges (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)

However, this is actually NOT TRUE, especially for values of ΔT less than
ΔT0, because the probability is nothing more than the partial combination of
the different probabilities of the individual seven challenges. This leads to a
more complex curve for the p function and for the probability density distri-
bution of p (the latter being merely the changed derivative of p sign), as
shown in Fig. 20.12a, b. Nevertheless, calculating the seventh Drake param-
eter using this more laborious method would lead us to a result on the same
order of magnitude as the one we found assuming a probability strictly inde-
pendent of time.
 21
Considerations on the Seventh Parameter

As can be seen from Fig. 20.11b, we have found an average duration of galac-
tic civilizations of about 50,000 years with a deviation of 7000 years. Now
assuming a reasonable duration of a planet’s life in the habitable zone of
about 7 billion years (Gy) (remember that the third Drake parameter assures
us this), the value of the temporal fraction of a civilization’s life is 7.3 × 10−6
with a deviation of 10−6. This means that our galactic civilization has a total
time of about 50,000 years, starting from our current technological level, during
which it can recognize and be recognized by other civilizations.
Let’s briefly return to the delta-T reasoning, which, as you will remember,
we did not consider applicable: Gott had found a value for the duration of the
HUMAN SPECIES between 70,000 and 600,000 years with a probability of
50%. Now, however, we have found a value of the duration of the GALACTIC
CIVILIZATION between 44,000 and 58,000 years with a 50% probabil-
ity; we therefore have a definitely more accurate data and, above all, one that
is referred to what interests the Drake equation, namely galactic technologi-
cal civilizations rather than intelligent galactic species. If we apply the delta-T
reasoning to advanced human technological civilizations (for example, since
1945, the beginning of the atomic era), we should seriously worry because
we would have obtained a value for the duration of human technological civi-
lization between 25 and 240 years; that is, we will have the probability of
destroying ourselves, with a 50% probability, between the years 2050 and
2265. This would be a concrete possibility if two conditions were met: (A) the
current moment was not a particular moment within the atomic era, and (B)
all past and future time intervals were equivalent because conditions (i.e., our
behaviors) remained unchanged over time. All this should make us reflect
seriously.

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 22
The Hypothesis of Tipler and Brin
of Dynamic Civilizations

At this point, a final consideration is mandatory: until now we have only

considered the case where a civilization forms and develops on its own home
planet and moves ONLY TO ESCAPE A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
DANGER due to one of the seven challenges; we have thus ignored the sce-
nario analyzed by Tipler (1980) and Brin (1983) of a civilization that, at a
certain point in its development, freely decides to colonize the galaxy. How
and when would such a scenario present itself?
First of all, it is conceivable that a civilization willing and able to colonize
the galaxy is a type K2 civilization that has already overcome ALL seven chal-
lenges after 400,000 years; but in this case, we would be facing an epochal
transition of the entire process: if this were to happen, the civilization in ques-
tion COULD NO LONGER BECOME EXTINCT. Therefore, the value
that we should consider in our formula is not the one derived from the tem-
poral distribution with a 50% probability of survival that leads us to an aver-
age duration of 50,000 years equal to a percentage fraction of 7.3 × 10−6, but
directly from the value provided by Maccone’s formula to overcome all seven
challenges in 400,000 years, which is much greater, namely 5 × 10−3 (Fig.
20.11a).

DRAKE 7 (dynamic civilization)

fL min fL max
1.03 × 10−3 8.25 × 10−3

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186 E. Mieli et al.

All of this leads to a conclusion that we should have expected, namely: if we

were to identify an extraterrestrial civilization, it would be much more likely
to be an evolved K2 civilization moving in the galaxy rather than a static K1
(or lower) civilization like ours still grappling with the challenges to over-
come. In conclusion, a potential transition from K1 to K2, as hypothesized by
Kardashev in 1964, is crucial and has a decisive impact on the calculation of
the entire Drake equation.
 Part IV
The Complete Drake Equation

At this point we have all seven of Drake’s parameters to estimate galactic civi-
lizations. To be precise, the fifth parameter has been explained in its three
components relating to eukaryotes, metazoans, and technological intelligent
civilization (ETC).
As we have just seen in the previous section, technological intelligent civili-
zations can be of two types: static (point 7 A of Table IV.1) or dynamic (point

Table IV.1 TOTAL Drake: Drake’s parameters defined with their minimum and maxi-
mum values. The fifth parameter has been explained in its three components related
to eukaryotes, metazoans and technological intelligent civilization
Minimum Maximum
value value
Aj Bj
1 Number of galaxy stars suitable for life (of 1.00E+10 1.20E+10
spectral class F, G and K)
2 Number of suitable planets in the habitable zone 1.60E-01 2.00E-01
per star (of spectral class F, G and K)
3 Fraction of stable planets for 4.5 Gy (a) 3.65E-02 1.07E-01
4 Fraction of planets where life arises 3.22E-01 6.55E-01
5 Eukaryotes 2.89E-01 7.09E-01
Metazoans 5.97E-01 9.44E-01
Technological intelligent civilization 1.25E-02 5.66E-02
6 Fraction of planets where life decides to 4.00E-01 6.00E-01
communicate
7A Temporal fraction of the duration of a static K1 6.29E-06 8.30E-06
type civilization
7B Fraction of planets where life reaches the state of 1.03E-03 8.25E-03
dynamic K2 civilization
a
We have rescaled the value of the third parameter from 7 Gy to 4.5 Gy which is the
specific duration of planet earth
188 The Complete Drake Equation

7 B of Table IV.1); the former are those that have NOT made the leap beyond
the level K = 1.4 and therefore have almost certainly NOT had the technologi-
cal possibility of colonizing other planets; the latter instead have made the leap
beyond the level K = 1.4 and therefore have spread beyond their original plan-
etary system. We have obtained these two distinct results from a reflection born
from the conclusions drawn from the 7th parameter. It is immediate, from
simple energy calculations related to the power cost of an interstellar spaceship,
to understand why this limit value of K = 1.4 was chosen: to accelerate a sig-
nificant spaceship, let's say of 109 kg, to half the speed of light, or 1.5 ⋅ 108 m/s
in about three months (approximately 107 s), a power of about 1018 W is
required. Assuming that this is reasonably 1% of the total power expressible by
the civilization in question, this leads us to a total power of Wtot = 1020 W, or:

log10 1020 − 5
K= ≅ 1, 4
11
This implies that only civilizations that have exceeded this power level can
begin interstellar travel and colonization. The result obtained for static and
dynamic civilizations is as shown in Table IV.2 and Fig. IV.1a, b.
At this point, we leave, for a moment, the discussion on galactic civiliza-
tions to show the entire set of results that have been obtained from this method.

Table IV.2 TOTAL Drake: number of static and dynamic civilizations

Average Deviation
ETC number ETC number
<N> σ(N)
3 2 Static
2.000 2.000 Dynamic

Fig. IV.1 (a) TOTAL Drake: lognormal of the distribution of static civilizations with
<N > = 3.41 and σ(N) = 2.43 (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone). (b) TOTAL Drake:
lognormal of the distribution of dynamic civilizations with <N > = 2, 214 and σ(N) = 2,
224 (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli, Maccone)
 The Complete Drake Equation 189

The third parameter, as we have seen, has given us the number of stable
planets as a function of the variable time ΔT. Knowing now the duration of
all the processes of life evolution, from the prokaryotic level to the K2 civiliza-
tion, we can count:

A how many planets are suitable at each level of development

B how many of these have hosted life
C how many still host life

As we have seen, we must also consider the planet’s development dead

times (ADEANO), the first increase of oxygen to 1% of the current value
(GOE), and the second increase to the current value (NOE). Combining
these timings with the step-by-step calculation of the lognormal distribution,
we get the time scale reported in Table IV.3, where we have adhered to the
terrestrial model of life.
Now, taking into account the results obtained for the percentage of past
and present stable planets for ∆T years (Fig. 6.1a, b) in the calculation of the
third parameter, we report in Table IV.4 and Fig. IV.2 the population of

Table IV.3 TOTAL Drake: time scale of a galactic civilization (Earth model)
Life Development Phase Duration Sum
1 - ADEAN 0.80 Gy 0.80 Gy
2 - prokaryotes 0.10 Gy 0.90 Gy
3 - GOE 1.60 Gy 2.50 Gy
4 - eukaryotes 0.50 Gy 3.00 Gy
5 - NOE 0.50 Gy 3.50 Gy
6 - metazoans 0.50 Gy 4.00 Gy
7 - past static ETC 0.50 Gy 4.50 Gy
8 - present static ETC 0.05 Gy 4.55 Gy
9 – dynamic ETC 0.40 Gy 4.95 Gy

Fig. IV.2 TOTALE Drake: the data from Table 4 on the number of planets that have
hosted or host life are reported in a logarithmic graph (IJA 14/06/2023 Mieli, Valli,
Maccone)
190 The Complete Drake Equation

Table IV.4 TOTAL Drake: the population of galactic life and the relative distances from
us of both suitable planets and planets suitable and populated in the past and present:
a average volume of the galactic disk of 1.53 × 1013 ly3 has been hypothesized
Planet Number of planets hosting or Distance Total of Distance
age Gy) having hosted life (ly) suitable planets (ly)
A 0.90 710,000,000 planets where 28 1,500,000,000 22
prokaryotes were born in the
past
B 92,000,000 planets where 55 190,000,000 43
prokaryotes are present today
C 3.00 81,000,000 planets where 57 330,000,000 36
eukaryotes were born in the
past
D 35,000,000 planets where 76 140,000,000 48
eukaryotes are present today
E 4.00 35,000,000 planets where 76 190,000,000 43
metazoans were born in the
past
F 20,000,000 planets where 91 110,000,000 52
metazoans are present today
G 4.50 470,000 planets where ETC K1 319 140,000,000 48
statistics were born in the past
H 3 planets where ETC K1 is 16,515 92,000,000 48
present today static
I 4.95 2200 current planets with ETC K2 1909 92,000,000 48
dynamics (eternal)

galactic life and the relative distances from us. In Appendix B we have
reported the complete calculation from which the data were derived.
In conclusion, we found that:

A The first major reduction occurs in life forms becoming ETC (approximately
1/70 of the planets that host animal life forms)
B A second dramatic reduction is due to the technological challenges of the 7th
parameter (approximately 1/250 of the ETCs that have developed)
 23
Still the Fermi Paradox (But Really,
Where Is Everyone?)

After exploring fifty shades of Drake’s equation, spanning astronomy, geol-

ogy, biology, paleontology, and futurology, we surprisingly found that the
number of current planets inhabited by static type K1 (or lower) galactic civi-
lizations, with an average duration of 50,000 years, is around 3—that is, us
and perhaps someone else about 17,000 light-years away, which is very far.
If we only considered static civilizations or those that have not made the
leap beyond K = 1, which would allow them to move among the stars, the
Fermi paradox would, in fact, be solved [44]. To satisfy our desire for com-
pany in the galaxy, there would be a multitude of planets that host life in less
evolved forms or that have hosted now-extinct civilizations – daily bread for
astrobiologists or astroarchaeologists, but nothing more than that …
… but instead, there is more. Just as life forms are born in a niche and, if
conditions allow, invade the entire ecosystem, similarly, if a galactic civiliza-
tion overcame the seven challenges of the seventh parameter and reached the
energy value of Kardashev K = 1.4, then it would invade the entire galaxy and
become ETERNAL. In this case, the current civilizations would number over
2000, all highly evolved and traveling in the galaxy.
The Fermi paradox, therefore, reappears in another form: it is not civiliza-
tions like ours that are missing and are residual but the super-civilizations
hypothesized by Kardashev. The issue would be that we do not necessarily
have to look for them on a specific planet because these civilizations also move
between stars, and it would be much easier for them to find us rather than the
other way around. So, the problem we should ask ourselves is: if we were a
super-civilization capable of moving in the galaxy, where would we choose to
go? Solar systems like ours (and we with it who, as we have seen, in addition

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192 E. Mieli et al.

to being alone as a K1 civilization, we have a probability of only 0.4% of

becoming a K2 civilization) may not be interesting for these civilizations.
More likely, red dwarf stars (which last much longer than the sun) or even
dead stars such as black holes and neutron stars (potentially exploitable as
hypothetical energy sources) [110], would be more interesting.

 e journey we have taken so far has led us to the following

Th
conclusions:

a In the galaxy, as a primitive K1 civilization (actually less than K1), we are

almost alone, with about 3 ETC including us currently present.
b Approximately one civilization like ours forms every 20,000 years and has
a slightly higher than 0.4% chance of not going extinct (1 in 250).
c There are nearly half a million civilizations like these already extinct in
the galaxy.
d Conversely, in the galaxy, if they overcame the seven challenges of the sev-
enth parameter, there could be about 2000 super-civilizations, K2 level or
almost, which would form one every five million years.
e In this case, these super-civilizations would now be free to move between
planetary systems and would likely be within about 50 light-years from us
(the distance of the first habitable planets used as intermediate travel sta-
tions). The organization and intentions of these super-civilizations are cur-
rently unknown to us and could be the subject of further study in our
future work.
f The rest of the galaxy is a jungle of life forms at various stages of develop-
ment (tens of millions of planets inhabited by living forms).

While statement d and e on super-civilizations is based on the correct

understanding of Drake’s seventh parameter and therefore concerns futurol-
ogy, all other statements, thanks to the mathematical treatment inspired by
Maccone, are firmly anchored to their reference parameters and no longer
range, as we have seen too many times, between tens and tens of orders of
magnitude between the maximum and minimum values of uncertainty. Now
a statement, for example, on the probability of the onset of prokaryotic life,
must be strictly compared with the mathematical process we have reported: if
we have to discuss or review it, we must also review the process that guides its
parameter (in this case, the fourth parameter of Drake). This is the greatest
advantage we have from this type of treatment and from the method inaugu-
rated by Claudio Maccone in 2008 with his lognormal distribution.
 Part V
Winners and Losers in the Milky Way

In this section, we will make simple assumptions about the fate of two possi-
ble intelligent alien species, each on their own planet (Fig. V.1). To achieve
this, we will adhere only to the following constraints, dictated by com-
mon sense:

Fig. V.1 Winners and losers in the milky way: artistic representation of two galactic
­species represented by a cephalopoid and an arthropoid
194 Winners and Losers in the Milky Way

A Species have developed in systems similar to ours (G spectral class stars

and planets in the habitable zone)
B On their respective planets, the development of phyla (taxonomic groups
that rank below the animal kingdom) partially mirrors that on Earth.
C One of the two species is an arthropod (like insects), while the other is a
mollusk (like cephalopods): we will call them the arthropoid and the
cephalopoid.
D Apart from these similarities with Earth, the two species have evolved
distinctly from their terrestrial sister species.
 24
Identikit of Two Possible Intelligent Alien
Species

Let’s now look at the possible portrait of two species that have become intel-
ligent according to the standards presented earlier. The first evolved from an
arthropod-type anatomical plan, while the other evolved from the typical
mollusk plan. If we have taken these paths, it is not for lack of imagination.
This choice, that of using more or less known anatomical structures, can facil-
itate the reader’s understanding. Moreover, who can say that these anatomical
plans could not have led, under appropriate conditions, to the development
of intelligent species?

24.1 The Arthropoid

The anatomical plan of the arthropod phylum provides for a body divided
into various segments, each of which has a pair of articulated limbs. The
main internal systems (digestive and nervous) are arranged asymmetrically to
ours: in arthropods, the nervous system is ventral while the digestive system
is dorsal. In vertebrates, the opposite occurs. Finally, the organism is equipped
with an external skeleton (exoskeleton) to protect the soft tissues. This will
be our starting point to build the first of our two intelligent creatures.
Since the rational capacity of our “arthropoid” is comparable to ours (and
it reaches considerable body sizes, having a size that, more or less, is half of
ours), some structural modifications are necessary. First of all, its nervous sys-
tem has become as complex as ours, with a prominent brain rich in convolu-
tions. The respiratory and circulatory systems have also evolved, to allow the
species to acquire large dimensions. The circulatory system is closed (and not

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196 E. Mieli et al.

open as in current arthropods). The blood flows to the tissues and cells it
needs to reach inside the arteries and returns from these to the heart through
the veins. The heart is structured like ours: it consists of separate compart-
ments where oxygen-rich blood does not mix with that poor in such gas. The
heart is located in the chest, which is equipped with powerful lungs capable of
pushing oxygenated blood throughout the body.

Let’s describe our alien species from head to toe (Fig. 24.1):

• The skull is large, protected by the exoskeleton which includes the open-
ings for the eyes (organs that have evolved to present the same characteris-
tics as ours—quite different from those of current insects), for the
masticatory apparatus (composed of a series of appendages modified in

Fig. 24.1 The full-length arthropoid. The being is about 1 m tall

 24 Identikit of Two Possible Intelligent Alien Species 197

such a way as to support an omnivorous diet), and for the auditory

­apparatus (this species is capable of producing stridulations through a
sound-producing organ located on the hip of its hind limbs). Finally, on
the top of the skull, two antennae are arranged that allow the reception of
chemical substances. These antennae can be erected or folded into special
grooves behind their base, so as to be protected when they are not in use or
when our creature needs to move at a fast speed.
• The thorax is composed of several elements, whose anatomy is relatively
similar from element to element. The upper ones, under the neck, have
articulated limbs with a high number of segments (the segments are the
sections, articulated with each other, that constitute the limb in all its
length). The proximal ones, closest to the thorax, have a wide base, are flat-
tened and each can interlock with the equivalent of the lower (and upper)
limb, in order to constitute a base capable of being subjected to a certain
effort. The distal segments, furthest from the thorax, are instead completely
independent of their homologues of the other elements, from the upper
and the lower. The end of the limb corresponds to a “finger”. Each finger,
due to the independence mentioned above, is completely opposable to all
the others on the same side of the body, allowing extremely effective man-
ual dexterity.
• At the base of the thorax, two segments have thin limbs, capable of drum-
ming a kind of Morse code on the exoskeleton. This system allows com-
munication between individuals close to each other.
• Finally, in the upper part of the thorax, on the dorsal side, the respiratory
slits open, allowing air to reach the lungs. Ventilation is ensured by an
appropriate muscular system.
• The thorax is supported by the lower portion of the body, equipped with
two pairs of limbs with highly developed musculature, in order to allow a
sustained gait. The ventral part, well reinforced, protects the nervous sys-
tem, while on the back the “shell” is less rigid, in order to allow the diges-
tive system to fill properly when needed.
• In addition to the exoskeleton, rigid internal structures have evolved to
allow the support of the musculature necessary for the functioning of a
relatively large being.
• The exoskeleton requires regular molts, to allow the body to grow. In this
species, body growth occurs in the juvenile phase; the size of the adult does
not change anymore, as in mammals. Therefore, from “maturity”,
molts cease.
198 E. Mieli et al.

Our intelligent species has evolved from apo-diploid ancestors; that is, indi-
viduals with two copies of the genetic code turn out to be females, while those
with only one copy are males (in the case of human beings, as in all verte-
brates, all individuals possess two copies of DNA; we are all diploid). The
apo-diploid system favors the formation of insect societies, as the workers,
who are diploid (therefore females), are more closely related to their sisters
(the other workers and queens with which they share 75% of the genetic heri-
tage instead of 50%) and tend to help and favor their survival even at the
expense of their offspring.
Our alien species still presents apo-diploidy, but, instead of building the
large communities typical of most of our social insects, it forms smaller tribes.
These, as happens, for example, in the current Argentine ant (Linepithema
humile), are able to form larger colonies, living peacefully with other tribes.
The matriarchs reproduce and give birth to few larvae (usually two or three)
at a very advanced stage of development. Later, they are able to mate again, so
that the number of tribe members can increase relatively quickly. The matri-
archs can mate with the males of their tribe or even with those of the tribes
with which they coexist. This custom allows introducing “new blood” to the
entire tribe and strengthening the bonds between the various groups of the
entire colony.
Over the course of evolution, a particular form of “worker” has specialized:
it has given rise to individuals specialized in reflection and intervention to
improve the life of the tribe to which they belong. This is a caste that preludes
the role of the scientist in intelligent society. The constitution of multi-tribal
colonies leads to the emergence of individuals, “scientists”, who operate not
only for the good of their own tribe but also for the entire extended commu-
nity. Deriving from workers of apo-diploid colonies, their purpose will be
more collectivist than individualist. The impulse that moves them to improve
the living conditions of the whole group leads them not only to favor the
existence of individuals of the same species but also to the preservation of the
environment and associated forms of life, understood as essential components
of the life of the tribe and the entire colony.
At the beginning, the selection of individuals into various castes was estab-
lished randomly and according to the mere needs of the community (for the
next generation, “x” workers specialized in rearing larvae, “y” qualified for the
well-being of the colony and “z” focused on its defense are needed). The larvae
were therefore fed specific foods that, throughout their growth phase, devel-
oped the morphological and behavioral characteristics suitable for their future
function. The morphological differences between the various castes were
therefore very pronounced.
 24 Identikit of Two Possible Intelligent Alien Species 199

In the last evolutionary phase, however, all larvae are fed with rich regimes
in the first phase of their growth. Only later, towards the end of adolescence,
when individual characteristics allow recognizing individual propensities for
various activities, does dietary differentiation intervene, capable of strength-
ening the physical characteristics proper to the specific function. The mor-
phological differences are therefore much more reduced (naturally, the
inequalities that characterize reproductive and non-reproductive individuals
remain). In addition, the cultural transmission of the skills typical of each
activity has increased.
We conclude with the geography occupied by the arthropoid. Their physi-
ology has favored settlement in warm or temperate environments. However,
the great architectural skills of our social insects do not make us doubt the
structural realization capabilities that such forms of life can achieve. Quickly,
our intelligent species has become capable of conceiving and realizing housing
structures for the tribe (and for the entire colony) in which the conditions
remain relatively constant, allowing all individuals to move without problems
within them, regardless of external conditions.
Quickly, the technical abilities of our species have been able to produce
coatings (practically clothes) to allow all adult individuals (remember that
they no longer molt) to be able to withstand, being outside, various types of
climate and therefore to colonize practically the entire dry surface from their
home planet.

24.2 The Cephalopoid

The phylum of mollusks, our starting point for this new intelligent creature,
is characterized by the possession of the mantle, a muscular tissue capable of
secreting the shell (consisting of one or more variously mineralized elements),
the radula, a kind of tongue equipped with “teeth” (very plastic; it allows
processing a wide spectrum of foods) and the foot, muscular tissue from
which derives the “sole” on which snails crawl or the arms of an octopus.
Our cephalopoid is endowed with a rational capacity comparable to ours
and, to reach such an evolutionary level, it had to equip itself with a complex
nervous system as well as circulatory and respiratory systems capable of per-
formances similar to ours. In fact, the creature has a very high metabolism,
with the need for significant amounts of oxygen and nutrients to function at
full capacity.
200 E. Mieli et al.

Fig. 24.2 The full-figure cephalopoid. The being is about 3 m tall

Let’s now move on to a description of it from head to toe (Fig. 24.2):

• The being is equipped with a large skull that encloses a brain of impressive
size. The eyes are like those of our modern octopuses. Between these organs
and on the forehead there is a vast space rich in chromatophores, cells
endowed with a large amount of pigments. The alternating lighting up and
turning off and showing a particular color forms the basis of a complex
“visual” language based on shapes and colors. It allows close communica-
tion between two or more individuals.
• The eyes are arranged to provide binocular vision. However, the neck,
although robust, is very mobile and allows rotations of more than 100
degrees, to allow our intelligent creature to “watch its back”.
• It does not have a nose, but it has a very developed sense of taste, the center
of which is located inside the oral cavity (the mouth). The radula, complex,
plays the role of teeth and allows the grinding and processing of various
types of food, meat or vegetable. Above the mouth, or in the manner of
 24 Identikit of Two Possible Intelligent Alien Species 201

lips, are small modified tentacles, which resemble gills. Equipped with
suckers and small hooks, they aid ingestion and a first processing of food.
• Still on the head, behind the eyes, are the modified gills (the distant ances-
tors of our creature inhabited aquatic environments) that allow the entry of
air towards the lungs. The spiracle, behind the mouth, is a small tube that
serves to expel carbon dioxide-rich air.
• The sense of hearing is relatively rudimentary and consists of small mem-
branes located on the head, which can detect sound waves in a relatively
limited frequency range.
• The brain and cephalic organs are protected by an internal shell, which
serves as a skull for our creature.
• However, the cephalic shell is not the only mineralized internal support.
Many others are distributed inside the body: they serve to support nerves
and muscles and reinforce the body structure, as we will see later, in
more detail.
• The chest is voluminous and contains a heart structured similarly to ours,
in separate compartments, and efficient lungs capable of pushing blood
throughout the body.
• From the chest, arms sprout (three per side) very similar superficially, to
those of modern cephalopods. In reality, inside them there are mineralized
reinforcements that make them, at least over a certain length in the proxi-
mal part (that is, the one closer to the body) behave similarly to the coils of
snakes; they are therefore capable of clamping and crushing objects. In the
distal part (the one towards the tip), however, such reinforcements are
much more sparse. This allows this section of the arm to be partially extend-
able. Moreover, it is equipped with mini-suction cups and some hooks
(although there is some individual variability in this character). In any case,
the ends of such tentacles are rich in tactile papillae to exercise the
sense of touch.
• Below the attachment of the arms, there is the abdomen, which houses the
digestive system. Everything is supported by two strong limbs, similar to
elephant legs, although they are more stubby and shorter than those of
pachyderms. Our intelligent creature does not possess real nails, although,
on the plantar surface that constitutes the sole of the feet, there are suction
cups and small hooks, which aid in walking on slippery, inclined or irreg-
ular areas.
• However, the most important organs present on the lower surface of the
legs are structures capable of detecting ground vibrations. Thanks to an
adequate network of nerves, such sensations reach the brain where they are
202 E. Mieli et al.

processed. The individual can thus get a more or less precise idea of what is
happening at a certain distance from him. He can therefore have a com-
plete idea of the constitution of the environment, so as not to be caught
off guard.

In any case, the size (3 m or more, from head to foot), the powerful muscula-
ture of the arms, the very robust hind legs, the abdomen and chest covered by
a thick layer of fat (which gives tone to our creature and contributes to its
thermoregulation since it is devoid of hair), as well as gregarious and social
habits, contribute to the fact that our “hero” is practically devoid of natural
enemies.
Regarding reproduction, the young develop in the body of the female.
After birth, the young are cared for by both parents, but are quickly trans-
ferred to nurseries comprising other young of similar age. In such nurseries,
the young learn the rudiments of their visual language and the basics for their
everyday life. The social organization, initially based on the family system, has
subsequently evolved to include a group composed of several families and/or
single young individuals of both sexes.
Our alien species, endowed with acute vision, creates particularly sought-­
after dwellings for their aesthetics. Initially developed in a warm-temperate
environment, thanks to the insulating external tissues of their body (initially
evolved to avoid water loss) they quickly became capable of conquering vari-
ous climatic zones of their planet. Technological acquisitions have made them
masters of practically all the habitable land surfaces of their world.

24.3 The Arthropoid Faces the Seven Challenges

of the Seventh Parameter
The arthropoid owes its evolutionary strength to the apo-diploid bond that it
has extended not just to families of its own species, but effectively forming a
global super-society. This allowed it to painlessly overcome the first challenge
of the seventh parameter (the evolutionary inability to manage increasing
amounts of energy): at the moment of transition to a civilization with K = 0.6
to K = 0.7 and beyond, it did not endanger itself and was able to implement
the main countermeasures to prevent fatal errors (second challenge) (Fig. 24.3).
The first planetary changes of some significance (third challenge: in their
case, for example, a supernova exploded within the safety distance) presented
 24 Identikit of Two Possible Intelligent Alien Species 203

Fig. 24.3 The city of the arthropoids in one of their planet-colonies

themselves to the arthropoid when its Kardashev level had already reached
beyond K = 1, and it already possessed the technologies and energy sufficient
to face it. The problem of a possible spontaneous involution (fourth chal-
lenge) never arose because the division of the arthropoid society into castes
always kept a part of the population on guard in defense of the planetary hive.
Challenges 5 and 6, on the other hand, were overcome with difficulty, since
both risked shattering the orderly and granitic social structure of the arthro-
poids: genetic manipulation was therefore channeled so as not to damage the
caste-divided social structure, and artificial intelligence was relegated to its
own caste, without access to dangerous technological resources, but with the
sole purpose of advising the guiding caste.
204 E. Mieli et al.

Today, the arthropoids face only the seventh challenge (point Ω), but they
have now reached a value of K = 1.8 and move around the galaxy as they wish,
unconcerned about the fate of this or that particular planet.
THEY ARE AMONG THE WINNERS IN THE MILKY WAY

24.4 The Cephalopoid Faces the Seven

Challenges of the Seventh Parameter
The cephalopoid bases its evolutionary success on becoming intelligent while
being devoid of natural enemies on its planet. Its intelligence was mainly
directed at adapting the planet’s environment to the frequent changes to
which it is subjected (the axis of rotation is unstable due to the absence of a
heavy satellite like the moon; moreover, the tectonics of the cephalopoids’
planet has little activity, so the carbon cycle struggles to stabilize the tempera-
ture). Its naturally peaceful nature allowed it to easily overcome the first and
second challenges when its Kardashev level was around K = 0.8 (ten times the
energy we exploit on Earth). They had no problem with the third challenge
since their species has long dedicated itself solely to solving environmental
problems, all of which were resolved over the course of their existence
(Fig. 24.4).
The fourth challenge put them in danger because they often felt they could
lower their guard and regress. This did not happen thanks to the periodic
climate changes that urged them not to become too distracted.
However, the fifth challenge (genetic transition) proved to be their down-
fall, as they inadvertently created a more resistant and aggressive version of
themselves. This copy first exterminated them and then went extinct itself as
a consequence of failing the first challenge: they self-destructed. The Kardashev
level of the cephalopoids at the time of their extinction was K = 1.1, therefore
quite high (10,000 times the energy at our disposal).
THEY ARE AMONG THE LOSERS IN THE MILKY WAY
 24 Identikit of Two Possible Intelligent Alien Species 205

Fig. 24.4 The city of the cephalopoids during a period of planet over-
heating
Part VI
Epilogue
 25
The Cheetah’s Pity

One final sociopolitical observation. A consequence of this analysis is that we

have understood, at least in principle, where the real bottlenecks lie in the
evolution of a galactic civilization:

A The first major filter is the forms of life that become ETCs (approximately
1 out of 70 planets hosting animal life)
B A second dramatic reduction comes from the technological challenges of
the seventh parameter (approximately 1 out of 250 ETCs that have
developed)

While we have no control over point A, point B tells us that the “great
silence” resulting from the Fermi paradox warns us about the slim chances a
civilization has to survive its own technological development. We should
therefore understand that we will have to do everything possible to improve
those ruthless odds of merely 0.4% surviving our own technology. We must
strive to raise those chances to less severe values that give us a minimum
incentive to progress as a species and planet, despite everything.
So where do we stand in this Universal Judgment of Nature? The suspicion
of not being entirely safe has been with us for a while, but perhaps we are not
completely doomed, despite the ruthless survival rate against our own imper-
fections revealed in the last chapter. But let's take it one step at a time. What
is the biggest immediate danger we must face? In fact, it is the first challenge
of the seventh parameter—our instinctual insufficiency to manage increasing
levels of available energy, which in simple terms means our radical inability to
properly manage the planet as well as ourselves. But we mammals, what

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210 E. Mieli et al.

genetic tools (not cultural or ethical ones, which, as we see daily, can do very
little at the level of natural awareness) do we have to address this gap? In fact,
we do have one.
But let’s take a step back. We know advantageous evolutionary traits most
of the time do not emerge anew, but are modifications of some other trait
intended for a completely different purpose. For example, human hands were
not born to build tools, but for climbing. Is there then some inherent trait of
mammals (and humans) that can provide our natural awareness of the future?
Yes, there is: parental care—this behavior is the cornerstone on which mam-
mals build their more or less complex and extended societies.
Other groups of living beings develop their sociality by following different
paths (the super-genetic sharing of ants (Fig. 25.1), the exchange of symbiotic

Fig. 25.1 Social ants: as apodiploids, workers share 75% of the genetic heritage and
not 50%
 25 The Cheetah’s Pity 211

bacteria in termites, etc.), but mammals predominantly use this parental care
path which can be summarized as follows: the main goal is to preserve their
offspring. Is that all? Not quite; male felines often kill the offspring of other
males, hyenas often kill those they consider intruders in their clan, not to
mention the monstrosities that humans have perpetrated against their own
kind and the planet since their existence. It doesn’t work trivially.
Let’s move for a moment to the African savannah where a female cheetah
has just isolated and captured a live antelope cub, her most common prey. The
cub could not escape in any way, and so it does something unexpected: it tries
to nurse from the cheetah’s teat as if she were its mother. Incredibly, the female
cheetah lets it go at this point, performing an action that appears to go against
her own species’ interests. The cub appealed for mercy, and the cheetah
granted mercy—an interspecific act of mercy (Fig. 25.2).

Fig. 25.2 A female leopard together with an antelope cub isolated from
the herd
212 E. Mieli et al.

In general, purists of genetic selfishness tend to discard such behaviors as

errors or evolutionary dead-ends, but they fail to account for a phenomenon
in plain sight and well-described in game theory and decision theory (recall
Nobel laureate John Forbes Nash Jr., of A Beautiful Mind)—namely, coop-
eration. Even cooperative behaviors have advantageous equilibrium points for
the individual—in fact, more advantageous than those obtained from non-
cooperative behaviors. Nature understands this well, and on this basis sym-
biosis, colonies of individuals, and cooperative societies exist even before their
advantage becomes explicit. In other words, evolution prepares the ground-
work for changes well before they manifest. Evolution, that is, prepares the
groundwork for changes well before they occur.
But who actually safeguards this primary parental instinct among mam-
mals, potentially extendable from their own offspring to the entire planet?
Obviously the females, as if they had written it directly into their genetic heri-
tage—not the males who at most make it coexist with other predominant
behaviors, such as territoriality and sexual competition.
Then the answer to our problems is both terribly simple and terribly com-
plex: males (men) SHOULD NOT govern or, at least, they should not decide
the fate of communities because for them cooperation is always a choice
among many other possible ones, despite the risk of self-destruction. For the
female (woman), on the other hand, cooperation and the preservation of off-
spring (of life) is the only viable path because she is built for this purpose.
Never as much as today does this primary female instinct, like the cheetah’s
pity, serve the planet (Fig. 25.3).
 25 The Cheetah’s Pity 213

Fig. 25.3 Female of Australopithecus africanus (3-2 My) with her cub (Jose Garcia and
Renaud Joannes-Boyau/Southern Cross University)
Acknowledgements

We thank Prof. Stephen Webb for the inspiration given on many of the topics
covered and for the encouragement he has provided to complete this work.
We also want to thank Dr. Manuela Miggiano for her useful suggestions on
nucleic acids. Finally, we pay a due tribute to the philosopher Hans Jonas
who, with his book “Gnosticism”, gave us the cue we were looking for in our
Introduction.

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 Authors’ Contributions

C. Maccone, with his main works Mathematical SETI and EVO-SETI, has
indicated the method that has been followed throughout the work. He super-
vised the drafting and suggested valuable changes.
A. M. F. Valli took care of all the chemical, biological and paleontological
part related to the fourth and fifth Drake parameter.
E. Mieli formulated the mathematical models used in all Drake parameters
and developed the analysis related to the astronomical parameters (first, sec-
ond and third) and the social ones (sixth and seventh).

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 Appendix A

Table 1 Summary of the 50 steps of the Drake equation

Step Drake Par. Value Description
1 DRAKE 1 1.10 × 10+10 NUMBER OF STARS IN THE GALAXY SUITABLE FOR
LIFE (F, G AND K SPECTRAL CLASS)
2 DRAKE 2 1.80 × 10−1 NUMBER OF SUITABLE PLANETS IN THE HABITABLE
ZONE PER STAR (F, G AND K SPECTRAL CLASS)
DRAKE3 1.84 × 10−2 STABLE PLANETS FRACTION
3 Multiple star systems
4 Supernovae at less than 40 ly
5 Gamma-ray bursts at less than 5,000 ly
6 Super flares of one’s own star
7 Transit of gas giants on internal orbits
8 Prolonged meteorite bombardment
9 Instability of the rotation axis
10 Absence of the carbon cycle
11 Absence of the planetary magnetic field
DRAKE 4 5.16 × 10−1 FRACTION OF PLANETS WHERE LIFE BORN
12 The abiological synthesis of biological molecules
13 The concentration of the primordial soup
14 The formation of lipid pockets
15 The inclusion of chlorophyll in lipid membranes
16 The “proton photopump”
17 The formation of nucleic acid strands
18 The catalytic role of RNA
19 Determination of roles
20 Formation of the cell membrane
21 Emergence of the genetic code

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226 Appendix A

Step Drake Par. Value Description

DRAKE 5 5,45 × 10 -1
FRACTION OF PLANETS WHERE EUKARYOTES ARE
eukaryotes BORN
22 The evolution of an aerobic bacterium
23 The host-symbiont encounter
24 The formation of pores and the escape of
cytoplasmic extensions
25 The “envelopment” of the symbionts and the
disappearance of the host’s cell wall
26 The penetration of the symbionts into the
cytoplasm
27 The migration of DNA from the symbiont genome
to that of the host
28 The acquisition of the eukaryotic cytoplasmic
membrane
29 Incorporation into a single coat and phagocytosis
DRAKE 5 8.49 × 10−1 FRACTION OF PLANETS WHERE ANIMALS
metazoans (METAZOA) ARE BORN
30 The acquisition of a complex life cycle
31 The aggregation of zoospores and the formation of
synzoospores
32 The sedentary colony composed of differentiated
cells
33 The production of collagen
DRAKE 5 3.48 × 10−2 FRACTION OF PLANETS WHERE TECHNOLOGICAL
ETC CIVILIZATIONS ARE BORN (ETC)
34 Increase in metazoan size (nervous and vascular
system)
35 Arts development
36 Conquers mainland
37 Differentiation of terrestrial animals
38 Acquisition of sociability
39 Standing position and manual dexterity
40 Change in diet and brain growth
41 Organization of the brain on abstract thought
42 Birth of articulated language and technique
43 DRAKE 6 5.00 × 10−1 FRACTION OF PLANETS WHERE LIFE DECIDES TO
COMMUNICATE
DRAKE 7 7.29 × 10−6 STATIC ETC DURATION FRACTION ( K < 1.4 )
44 Self-destruction due to evolutionary failure
45 Inadvertent technological error
46 Technological insufficiency to deal with planetary
changes
47 Spontaneous involution
48 Artificial genetic transition ended on a dead end
49 Artificial intelligence transition ended on a dead
end
50 Reaching point Ω
DRAKE 7 4.64 × 10−3 FRACTION OF DYNAMIC ETCs THAT OVERCOME THE
7 CHALLENGES AND BECOME ETERNAL ( K ≥ 1.4 )
 Appendix B: Percentage of Past Planets
and Present for Each Stage of Development

The calculation sequence reported in these tables starts from Drake’s first
three astronomical parameters, providing their probabilistic combination for
the entire duration of the planet, from 0 to 9.5 billion years (Gy).
The subsequent combination with the following terms, from the fourth
parameter onwards, takes into account the necessary timescales when the pro-
cesses reported in Table IV.3 (Part IV) occur. Based on those timescales, the
corresponding value of the third parameter is chosen.
Up until the sixth parameter, both the number of planets inhabited by life
forms during the entire 7 Gy stellar population lifespan, and the number of
those inhabited planets, are reported. The seventh parameter instead intro-
duces a rigid temporal constraint that directly provides the current number of
extant technological civilizations (ETCs), both in the case of static K1 civiliza-
tions (7A) and dynamic K2 civilizations (7B).
Finally, we note that the distance values reported in Table IV.4 (Part IV) are
obtained taking into account the following average values of typical quantities
in the galactic disk, that is, without considering the galactic center (Bulge):
1.13 × 1011 Average number of disk stars
1.53 × 1013 Average disk volume (ly3)
5 Average distance stars (ly)

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Appendix B1
228

Table 2 Percentage of past planets and present for each stage of development
Appendix B: Percentage of Past Planets and Present for Each Stage…
Appendix B2
Table 3 Percentage of past planets and present for each stage of development
Appendix B: Percentage of Past Planets and Present for Each Stage...
229
Appendix B3
230

Table 4 Percentage of past planets and present for each stage of development
Appendix B: Percentage of Past Planets and Present for Each Stage...
 Appendix C: The Calculation
of the Distribution Function of the Seventh
Parameter

Knowing that Φ(z) is Maccone’s lognormal, the Fp(ΔTp) distribution func-

tion is written:

⎧
2
( ln ( z ) - μ )
1 1 -
| Ф (z) ≡ e 2σ
2

| z 2π σ
||
{ ⎧ 1⎫
⎧ ΔT0
⎫ ΔT0
| ΔT0 ln |
| p
|Fp ( ΔTp ) = Ф || p || p | ΔT 2 |
ΔT p ΔT p

| ⎩ ⎭ | p |
| |
|⎩ ⎩ ⎭

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024 231
E. Mieli et al., The Living Galaxy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-67324-5
232 Appendix C: The Calculation of the Distribution Function of the…

To derive the above equation with respect to ΔTp, we use the following
formulas:

⎧
| ⎾ μ - ln ( z ) - σ 2 ⏋
| d
Ф(z) = Ф(z). | |
| dz ⎿ zσ 2 ⏌
| y
| ⎧ 1 ⎫ y0
| y0 . ln | | . p
d ⎧ y0 ⎫
y
| ⎩ p⎭
{ |p |=
|
dy ⎩ | y2
| ⎭
| y
| ⎾ ⎧ 1 ⎫⏋ ⎧ 1 ⎫ y0
| d | y0 y . ln y . ln | p |. p
| 0 p || ⎧1⎫
0

| |p y .| || = ⎩ ⎭ y0 . ln | | - 2 y
| dy | | y || y ⎩ p⎭
2 4

|⎩ |⎿ | ||
⎩ ⎭⏌

where we have set, as a synthetic notation: ΔTp = y and ΔT0 = y0.

Therefore, we will have:

⎧1⎫
y
⎾ ⎧ ⎧ 1 ⎫⎫ ⏋
|( -2σ ) . y + | μ . y0 . ln | | | . y |
0

y0 . ln | | . p y
2 2

d ⎧ y0
⎫ ⎩ p⎭ ⎩ ⎩ p ⎭⎭ |
F ( y) = Ф| p y
|. . || |=0
dy | | y 5σ 2 ⎧ ⎧ 1 ⎫⎫
2
⎩ ⎭ | + | y0 . ln | | | |
|⎿ ⎩ ⎩ p ⎭⎭ |⏌

That is to say:
2
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
( -2σ ) . y + | μ . y0 . ln |⎧ 1p ⎫| | . y + | y0 . ln ⎧| 1p ⎫| | = 0
2 2

⎩ ⎩ ⎭⎭ ⎩ ⎩ ⎭⎭

and then, selecting only the greater-than-zero solution for y:

⎧ ⎧ ⎧ 1 ⎫⎫
| yMAX = C | y0 . ln | | |
| ⎩ ⎩ p ⎭⎭
{
| μ + μ 2 + 8σ 2
| C =
⎩ 4σ 2
 Appendix C: The Calculation of the Distribution Function of the… 233

Finally, at the maximum point, for Fp(ΔTp), you will have:

⎧
F ( ΔTpMAX ) = D
1
| ⎧1⎫
| y0 . ln | |
| ⎩ p⎭
|
| ⎾ ⎧ ⎫ ⏋
2
1 4σ 2
{ exp | - 2 | +μ| |
| | 2σ | μ 2 + 8σ 2 + μ | |
|D = ⎿ ⎩ ⎭ ⏌
| ⎧ μ 2 + 8σ 2 + μ ⎫
2

| 2πσ | |
| | 4σ 2 |
⎩ ⎩ ⎭
 Appendix D: The Complete Calculation
of the Lognormal

Step 1: Letting each factor become a random variable

In this paper, we adopt the notations of the great book “Probability,
Random Variables and Stochastic Processes” by Athanasios Papoulis
(1921–2002), now re-published as Papoulis-Pillai. The advantage of this
notation is that it makes a neat distinction between probabilistic (or statisti-
cal: it is the same thing here) variables, always denoted by capitals, from non-­
probabilistic (or “deterministic”) variables, always denoted by lower-case
letters. Adopting the Papoulis notation also is a tribute to him by this author,
who was a Fulbright Grantee in the United States with him at the Polytechnic
Institute (now Polytechnic University) of New York in the years 1977–79.
We thus introduce seven new (positive) random variables Di (“D” from
“Drake”) defined as:

⎧ D1 = Ns
| D = fp
| 2
| D3 = ne
|
{ D4 = fl (2)
| D = fi
| 5
| D6 = fc
|
⎩ D7 = fL

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024 235
E. Mieli et al., The Living Galaxy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-67324-5
236 Appendix D: The Complete Calculation of the Lognormal

so that our STATISTICAL Drake equation may be simply rewritten as

7
N = πDi . (3)
i =1

Of course, N now becomes a (positive) random variable too, having its own
(positive) mean value and standard deviation. Just as each of the Di has its
own (positive) mean value and standard deviation…
… the natural question then arises: how are the seven mean values on the
right related to the mean value on the left?
… and how are the seven standard deviations on the right related to the
standard deviation on the left?
Just take the next step, STEP TWO.
2.1. Step 2: Introducing logs to change the product into a sum
Products of random variables are not easy to handle in probability theory.
It is actually much easier to handle sums of random variables, rather than
products, because:

1. The probability density of the sum of two or more independent random

variables is the convolution of the relevant probability densities (worry not
about the equations, right now).
2. The Fourier transform of the convolution simply is the product of the
Fourier transforms (again, worry not about the equations, at this point).

So, let us take the natural logs of both sides of the Statistical Drake Eq. (3)
and change it into a sum:

⎧ 7 ⎫ 7
ln ( N ) = ln | ΠDi | = Σ ln ( Di ) . (4)
⎩ i =1 ⎭ i =1

It is now convenient to introduce eight new (positive) random variables

defined as follows:

⎧|Y = ln ( N )
{ (5)
|⎩Yi = ln ( Di ) i = 1,⋯, 7.

Upon inversion, the first equation of Eq. (5) yields the important equation,
that will be used in the sequel

N = eY . (6)
 Appendix D: The Complete Calculation of the Lognormal 237

We are now ready to take STEP THREE.

2.2. Step 3: The transformation law of random variables
So far we did not mention at all the problem: “which probability distribu-
tion shall we attach to each of the seven (positive) random variables Di?”
It is not easy to answer this question because we do not have the least sci-
entific clue to what probability distributions fit at best to each of the seven
points listed in Section 1.
Yet, at least one trivial error must be avoided: claiming that each of those
seven random variables must have a Gaussian (i.e. normal) distribution. In
fact, the Gaussian distribution, having the well-known bell-shaped probabil-
ity density function

( x - μ )2
1 -
f X ( x;μ ,σ ) = e 2σ 2
(σ ≥ 0 ) (7)
2πσ

has its independent variable × ranging between −∞ and ∞ and so it can apply
to a real random variable X only, and never to positive random variables like
those in the statistical Drake Eq. (3). Period.
Searching again for probability density functions that represent positive
random variables, an obvious choice would be the gamma distributions.
However, we discarded this choice too because of a different reason: please
keep in mind that, according to Eq. (5), once we selected a particular type of
probability density function (pdf ) for the last seven of Eq. (5), then we must
compute the (new and different) pdf of the logs of such random variables.
And the pdf of these logs certainly is not gamma-type any more.
It is high time now to remind the reader of a certain theorem that is proved
in probability courses, but, unfortunately, does not seem to have a specific
name. It is the transformation law (so we shall call it, see, for instance, Ref.
[5]) allowing us to compute the pdf of a certain new random variable Y that
is a known function Y = g(X) of an another random variable X having a
known pdf. In other words, if the pdf fX(x) of a certain random variable X is
known, then the pdf fY(y) of the new random variable Y, related to X by the
functional relationship

Y = g(X ) (8)

can be calculated according to this rule:

1. First, invert the corresponding non-probabilistic equation y = g(x) and

denote by xi(y) the various real roots resulting from this inversion.
238 Appendix D: The Complete Calculation of the Lognormal

2. Second, take notice whether these real roots may be either finitely- or infi-
nitely many, according to the nature of the function y = g(x).
3. Third, the probability density function of Y is then given by the (finite or
infinite) sum

f X ( xi ( y ) )
fY ( y ) = Σ (9)
i g ' ( xi ( y ) )

where the summation extends to all roots xi (y) and |g′(xi (y))| is the absolute
value of the first derivative of g(x), where the i-th root xi (y) has been replaced
instead of x.
Since we must use this transformation law to transfer from the Di to the
Yi = ln (Di), it is clear that we need to start from a Di pdf that is as simple as
possible. The gamma pdf is not responding to this need because the analytic
expression of the transformed pdf is very complicated (or, at least, it looked so
to this author in the first instance). Also, the gamma distribution has two free
parameters in it, and this “complicates” its application to the various mean-
ings of the Drake equation. In conclusion, we discarded the gamma distribu-
tions and confined ourselves to the simpler uniform distribution instead, as
shown in the next section.
3. Step 4: Assuming the easiest input distribution for each Di: the uniform
distribution
Let us now suppose that each of the seven Di is distributed UNIFORMLY
in the interval ranging from the lower limit ai ≥ 0 to the upper limit bi ≥ ai.
This is the same as saying that the probability density function of each of
the seven Drake random variables Di has the equation

1
f uniform _ Di ( x ) = with 0 ≤ ai ≤ x ≤ bi (10)
bi - ai

as it follows at once from the normalization condition

bi

⎰f uniform _ Di ( x )dx = 1. (11a)

ai
 Appendix D: The Complete Calculation of the Lognormal 239

Let us now consider the mean value of such uniform Di defined by

bi b
1 i
uniform _ Di = ⎰ x f uniform _ Di ( x ) dx =
bi - ai a⎰i
xdx
ai
bi (11b)
1 ⎾ x2 ⏋ bi2 - ai2 a +b
= | | = = i i.
bi - ai ⎿ 2 ⏌ a 2 ( bi - ai ) 2
i

By words (as it is intuitively obvious): the mean value of the uniform distribu-
tion simply is the mean of the lower plus upper limit of the variable range

ai + bi
uniform _ Di = . (12a)
2

In order to find the variance of the uniform distribution, we first need finding
the second moment

bi

uniform _ Di2 = ⎰ x 2 f uniform _ Di ( x ) dx

ai

b bi
1 i 2 1 ⎾ x3 ⏋ bi3 - ai3
bi - ai a⎰i
= x dx = | | = (12b)
bi - ai ⎿ 3 ⏌ a 3 ( bi - ai )
i

( bi - ai ) ( ai2 + ai bi + bi2 ) ai2 + ai bi + bi2

= = .
3 ( bi - ai ) 3

The second moment of the uniform distribution is thus

ai2 + ai bi + bi2
uniform _ Di2 = . (13)
3

From Eqs. (12) and (13), we may now derive the variance of the uniform
distribution

σ uniform _ Di = uniform _ Di - uniform _ Di

2 2 2

a 2 + ai bi + bi2 ( ai + bi ) ( b - ai )
2 2 (14)
= i - = i .
3 4 12
240 Appendix D: The Complete Calculation of the Lognormal

Upon taking the square root of both sides of Eq. (14), we finally obtain the
standard deviation of the uniform distribution:

bi - ai (15)
σ uniform _ Di = .
2 3

We now wish to perform a calculation that is mathematically trivial, but

rather unexpected from the intuitive point of view, and very important for
our applications to the statistical Drake equation. Just consider the two simul-
taneous Eqs. (12) and (15)

⎧ ai + bi
|| uniform _ Di = 2
{ (16)
|σ uniform _ D = bi - ai .
|⎩ i
2 3

Upon inverting this trivial linear system, one finds

⎧|ai = uniform _ Di - 3 σ uniform _ D

i
{ (17)
|⎩bi = uniform _ Di + 3σ uniform _ Di .

This is of paramount importance for our application the Statistical Drake

equation in as much as it shows that:
if one (scientifically) assigns the mean value and standard deviation of a
certain Drake random variable Di, then the lower and upper limits of the
relevant uniform distribution are given by the two Eq. (17), respectively.
In other words, there is a factor of 3 = 1 : 732 included in the two Eq. (17)
that is not obvious at all to human intuition, and must indeed be taken into
account.
Proof. of Shannon’s 1948 Theorem stating that the Uniform distribution is the
“most uncertain” one over any Finite range of values.
As it is well known, the Shannon entropy of any probability density func-
tion p(x) is given by the integral
∞
Shannon _ Entropy _ of _ p ( x ) = - ⎰ p ( x ) log p ( x ) dx. (18)
-∞
 Appendix D: The Complete Calculation of the Lognormal 241

In modern textbooks this is also called Shannon differential entropy.

Now consider the case when a probability density function p(x) is limited
to a finite interval a ≤ x ≤ b. This is obviously the case with any physical posi-
tive random variable, such as the number N of extraterrestrial communicating
civilizations in the Galaxy. We now wish to prove that for any such finite
random variable the maximum entropy distribution is the UNIFORM distri-
bution over a ≤ x ≤ b.
Shannon did not bother to prove this simple theorem in his 1948 papers
since he probably regarded it as just too trivial. But we prefer to point out this
theorem since, in the language of the statistical Drake equation, it sounds like:
“Since we don’t know what the probability distribution of any one of the
Drake random variables Di is, it is safer to assume that each of them has the
maximum possible entropy over a ≤ x ≤ b, i.e., that Di is UNIFORMLY
distributed there”.
The proof of this theorem is as follows:

1. Start by assuming ai ≤ x ≤ bi.

2. Then form the linear combination of the entropy integral plus the normal-
ization condition for Di

bi

δ ⎰ ⎾⎿ - p ( x ) log p ( x ) + λ p ( x ) ⏋⏌ dx = 0 (19)
ai

where λ is a Lagrange multiplier.

Performing the variation, i.e. differentiating with respect to p(x), one finds

- log p ( x ) - 1 + λ = 0 (20)

that is

p ( x ) = eλ -1. (21)

Applying the normalization condition (constraint) to the last expression for

p(x) yields
bi bi bi

1 = ⎰ p ( x ) dx = ⎰eλ -1 dx = eλ -1 ⎰dx = eλ -1 ( bi - ai ) (22)

ai ai ai
242 Appendix D: The Complete Calculation of the Lognormal

that is

1
eλ -1 = (23)
bi - ai

and finally, from (21) and (23)

1
p ( x) = with ai ≤ x ≤ bi . (24)
bi - ai

showing that the maximum-entropy probability distribution over any FINITE

interval ai ≤ x ≤ bi is just the UNIFORM distribution.
  Appendix E
Table 5 Overview of geological ages on planet earth

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024 243
E. Mieli et al., The Living Galaxy, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-67324-5
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