Rapid Assessment by the Regional Bureau for Africa, UNDP

The impact of the war in

Ukraine on sustainable
development in Africa

May 2022
THE IMPACT OF THE
WAR IN UKRAINE ON SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA
Rapid Assessment by the Regional Bureau for Africa, UNDP
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The war in Ukraine comes at a time when African The crisis appears to be a harbinger of a Cold War
countries are still struggling to recover from the redux, which could undermine democratization across
destabilizing effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic, Africa and fuel political instability. A global geo-political
which caused deep economic regression, significant realignment could also retard economic development
loss of productivity, worsening inequalities, planetary through the adoption of economic policies and
pressures, and in some cases security challenges. It is ideologies that are not pro-poor, planet-friendly and
threatening to derail development progress in African equitable. Indirectly, economic stress could trigger
countries, pushing the 2030 Sustainable Development violent protests and unconstitutional transfers of
Goals and the aspirations of the African Union’s Agenda political power.
2063 further out of reach.1
Moreover, there appears to be a threat to
The direct impacts of the crisis in Africa include trade multilateralism, which could hamper the ability of
disruption, food and fuel price spikes, macroeconomic development partners to provide consistent support
instability, and security challenges. The crisis pushed that would put African countries back on track to attain
the price of a barrel of Brent oil above the $100 shared global development aspirations. Weakened
dollar mark for the first time since 2014. At the same multilateralism would unravel significant development
time, food grain prices continued to rise even higher progress attained over the past decades and roll
as supply disruptions from Russia and Ukraine (actual back gains made in fighting COVID-19 globally. This is
and anticipated) rocked global markets. Food and fuel why the development community, including bilateral
account for over one-third of the consumer price index in and multilateral partners, must redouble their efforts
most African countries. The pass-through of consequent to provide adequate and timely support across the
inflation will be swift and hard-hitting, especially for continent.
vulnerable groups like women and children.
Priority actions to protect development gains in Africa
There are also indirect impacts of the crisis to consider, would be:
which include imported inflation, difficult energy
1. Prioritize immediate efforts to expand the fiscal
transitions, and a potential geopolitical realignment.
space in African countries and stabilize African
To fully diversify, Europe will have to search for new
economies via enhanced bilateral assistance,
providers to fill the remaining two thirds gap. Africa’s
innovative multilateral initiatives (including the
gas producers, like Algeria, Libya and Nigeria, are well
expeditious re-channeling of new sources of funds
positioned to fill this gap. But there are two immediate
such as the Special Drawing Rights), increased
consequences of the increase in the global demand for
liquidity (e.g. through access to central bank
oil and gas. First, it could undermine progress towards
swaps or access to IMF emergency windows) and
ensuring a just transition to sustainable energy sources
debt relief (e.g. addressing the slow pace of the
which are much more environmentally friendly. Second,
Common Framework that has only started working
it could limit the continent’s access to natural gas in the
with Chad and Zambia on their respective credit
near-term as African countries export their gas supplies
committees).
to Europe.
2. Strengthen resilience to global shocks by
The impact of the war could push Africa into serious
reducing Africa’s dependency on food and fuel
debt distress, making countries less likely to meet
imports, accelerating access to energy based on
their debt obligations. It could also increase inequality
a just transition, de-risking critical investments
because high food and fuel prices typically hit the
in technology and infrastructure, and promoting
most vulnerable households hardest. Reduced access
innovative approaches to entrepreneurship.
to electricity and cooking fuel would make more
households multidimensionally poor, while shrinking 3. Foster structural economic transformation in Africa
budgets may trigger households to dispose of their by intensifying support to regional integration and
assets, thus reducing their ability to cushion themselves economic diversification, and mobilizing resources
from future shocks. Overall, these indirect effects would to fill strategic infrastructure, health and education
constrain overall economic activity and could trigger gaps.
social tensions and unrest.

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1. https://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-impact-war-ukraine-food-energy-and-finance-systems
 CONTENTS
Executive summary i
Introduction 1
Prosperity:
The impact of the war on economic growth in 2
Africa

People:
The human impacts of the crisis on poverty and 9
hunger in Africa

Peace:
Geopolitical impacts on security and governance 14
in Africa

Critical time for action 18

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INTRODUCTION

This note analyses the impact of the war in to withstand the immediate impacts and
Ukraine on Africa’s progress towards the take steps to invest in critical capacities
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). that would build longer-term resilience.
It focuses on three pillars of the SDGs: Energy, trade, commodity prices, financial
People, Prosperity, and Peace. While most flows and food prices constitute the major
African countries are still dealing with the direct effects, while the indirect effects
COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine can occur through inflation and reduced
is imposing additional development, demand for Africa’s exports.
governance and security challenges
across the continent. We consider the Specifically, the direct effects include
direct and indirect implications of the war higher food and fuel prices, disrupted
on Africa, the policy measures that national trade, fiscal tightening, widening
governments are adopting as mitigation inequalities, and governance pressures.
measures, and how international Imported inflation is the major indirect
institutions, including UNDP, can better effect, while waning multilateralism and
support African countries, as they strive security threats may also occur.

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PROSPERITY:
The impact of the war on economic growth in Africa

Diagram 1: Direct and indirect economic channels

Oil price effects INDIRECT EFFECTS

Longer term growth Impact on growth

opportunities for gas-rich Heightens the risks of a debt crisis in
countries Africa
Costly imports Acceleration of inflation
Slow recovery in the Financial markets volatility will not be
tourism sector The war in Ukraine favorable to Africa
Reduced supply of energy Transformation of energy consumption
from Russia structure

DIRECT EFFECTS

1.1 Impacts on economic growth However, African countries will need to

improve the management of these windfall
Direct Effects gains. The current practice of forward sale
of oil and significant mandatory payments
Oil price effects will determine the net gains. For Africa's
hydrocarbon exporters, the increase in oil
The war has led to an increase in energy prices is both a gain and a loss. While exports,
and food prices. Russia is the third largest foreign exchange earnings/reserves, and
oil producer, and the price of Brent oil has government revenue are likely to increase,
increased by 25% since the onset of the this could be offset by the increased cost of
war. Oil-producing countries such as Angola, refined petroleum imports - emphasizing the
Nigeria, South Sudan, Congo, and Gabon urgency in value addition and industrialization
stand to benefit from increased demand on the continent. Furthermore, the practice
and higher global oil prices, as European of subsidizing petrol, diesel and kerosene
countries search for alternative energy will further worsen their fiscal and financial
sources. This could have a positive effect positions.
on their growth prospects, fiscal balances,
current account positions, and reserves.

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Longer term growth opportunities for gas-rich as petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, kerosene, and
African countries lubricating oil increase. Most African countries
are particularly vulnerable, especially
African countries can benefit from increased because of their over-dependence on limited
demand as European countries gradually sources and their lack of competitiveness in
reduce their dependence on Russian global markets.
gas. Several countries, including Algeria,
Tanzania, Senegal, Nigeria, and Mozambique The diamond market exposed
have significant reserves of offshore and
non-offshore gas. Tanzania, for instance, Countries where Russian companies
anticipates USD 30 billion in foreign mine diamonds will also be affected. With
investment to kick-start the construction sanctions already imposed on the diamond
of offshore liquefied natural gas projects industry in Russia, there is fear that diamonds
in 2023, while Senegal aims to exploit the from Namibia could be viewed as “blood
40 trillion cubic feet of natural gas that was diamonds.” The isolation of Russia from the
discovered between 2014 and 2017. Algeria, international community and the anticipated
Niger and Nigeria have already signed a shrinkage of investment from Russia may
13-billion-dollar agreement to develop the also affect the Angolan diamond sector.
Trans-Saharan gas pipeline.
Tourism sector
The United States has announced its
potential to supply Europe with an additional The war in Ukraine risks delaying the recovery
15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural of Africa's tourism sector, especially in Small
gas (LNG) in 2022, which represents 10% of Island Developing States (SIDS) (Figure 1). If
the gas that the 27 EU members buy from the war persists, it will slow down the growth
Russia. In the medium term, this figure could in these economies that heavily depend on
rise to 50 billion cubic meters per year and the tourism sector. For instance, Russia and
allow Europeans to do without a third of their Ukraine are the 6th largest tourist markets
Russian imports. Europe will still have to for Mauritius. To mitigate this, Mauritius is
search for new providers to fill the remaining re-engineering its tourism by expanding its
two-thirds gap which Africa is well positioned niche markets beyond Europe. Russia also
to fill. accounts for the largest tourism market for
Seychelles, with 20.7% of total tourist arrivals
Costly oil imports in January and February. With tourism
contributing to approximately 25% of GDP,
The war is already driving up oil prices at the Mauritius is expected to face a significant
pump, with adverse effects on transportation shortfall in revenue. It may have to account
costs and households’ budgets. This trend for this shortfall by borrowing, amidst its high
is likely to continue in the short-term, as the expenditure on social protection and other
prices of refined petroleum products such development programmes.

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Number of international tourist arrivals Figure 1: Countries are yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels of international tourist arrivals

10,000,000 2019
2020
8,000,000 2021

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000

0
South Africa Mauritius Cabo Verde Madagascar Seychelles Kenya Ethiopia

Source: UNWTO

Indirect Effects inflation will reduce consumption, lower

global growth and, in turn, the demand for
The impact on growth African exports. Additionally, production
shocks are likely to affect economic growth
The Russia-Ukraine crisis could jeopardize due to increased energy and transport
the continent's prospects for economic costs. Businesses will bear the cost of
recovery through indirect channels such as rising energy prices and could experience
disruption in energy supplies, inflationary severe difficulties. The rise in fuel prices also
pressures and increased savings. Recent increases transport costs for manufacturers.
estimates show that global demand could Ghana imports 60% of its iron ore and
decrease by 3%, while global inflation steel from Ukraine, 25% of its wheat from
increases by 4%. Given historical trends, Russia, and 17.6% of fertilizer from Russia.
African exports are forecast to grow by 4.1% Tanker delivery costs, for instance, doubled
in 2022, as opposed to 8.3% if the war did between February 23 and March 3, 2022.
not occur. As depicted in Figure 2, increased In Sierra Leone, the increase in the price of

Figure 2: Macroeconomic transmission channels of global economic impacts to Africa

Rise of oil prices Decline in Reduction in

Inflation Decline in Decline in aggregate demand
Raw materials consumer consumption growth
power index for African
Food prices products

Reduction in
Decline in Decline in aggregate demand
Economic sanctions & Increase in savings
consumption growth for African
The war in Ukraine products

Reduction in
Increase in transport costs Increase in Business Production Reduction in aggregate demand
production cost closures reduction growth for African
Energy costs
products

Source: Authors’ elaboration

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Figure 3: Economic growth trends for selected major African economies

8.0

6.0 Kenya
Ghana
4.0
Nigeria
GDP growth rate %

2.0
South Africa

-
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
(2.0)

(4.0)

(6.0)

(8.0)
Source: IMF (World Economic Outlook)

fuel (20%) has increased the cost of local the capacity of Small and Medium Sized
transport by 50%. Some African regions, such Enterprises (SMEs) to borrow.
as West Africa are already facing additional
challenges such as uncertainties relating to Some African countries, including Zambia
COVID-19 and insecurity. and Nigeria, are undergoing post-COVID-19
debt negotiations with the IMF and will have
The war will heighten the risks of a debt crisis to find alternative resources to stabilize their
debt positions.
Most African countries were implementing
protective social policies to support An acceleration of inflation will have major
vulnerable populations during the COVID-19 destabilizing effects
pandemic. The current inflationary spiral
triggered by the crisis in Russia and Ukraine Increased inflation constitutes a key
is likely to make countries, which were macroeconomic risk.
already near debt distress, less able to make
timely debt service obligations. The destabilization of global supply chains
and production processes has already
Additionally, as the war affects inflation and triggered an increase in prices which has led
economic activity, global interest rates are to renewed attention to inflation. Increased
likely to rise. This could worsen Africa’s debt inflation due to higher global prices of
position, particularly in countries whose energy, food and raw materials is likely to
debt repayments are due in 2022 and reduce households' consumption, income
2023. Moreover, an increase in domestic and savings. This will also have an effect on
interest rates will have a negative effect on public expenditures as governments try to
both domestic debt service payments and support populations by maintaining energy

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prices at an affordable level. Tanzania, Ghana, depreciation, a drop in equity market prices,
Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe have already and an increase in risk premiums for bonds.
announced significant fuel price increases. This could affect resource mobilization,
Figure 4 shows that retail prices have outflow of foreign direct investment and the
remained stable in recent weeks despite what issuance of international bonds by African
is by definition an oil shock, but it is difficult countries. Tensions in the international
to imagine this trend holding up without even financial markets will also affect development
more governmental interventions and price financing and hinder progress toward the
controls going forward. SDGs.

Financial market volatility will not be favorable In the longer-term, as the crisis continues
to Africa and affects European countries and the
U.S., African countries may receive less
The crisis has already caused disruptions in remittances if the host economies of their
financial markets. An increase in risk aversion migrants struggle to recover. Fewer Africans
among investors could trigger capital outflows (approximately 50,000) live in Russia
from African countries, leading to currency compared to other western countries and
remittances from Russia are typically low.

Figure 4: Gasoline prices at the pump for selected African countries between January and March 2022

2.6

2.4
Zimbabwe

2.2

2
Gasoline Prices (Litre, USD)

1.8

1.6
South Africa
1.4
Lesotho
1.2 Zambia

1 Sierra Leone

0.8

0.6
24-Jan 7-Feb 21-Feb 28-Feb 7-Mar 14-Mar 28-Mar

Source: Global Petrol Prices

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1.2 Affordable and clean energy on petrol and diesel to power their machines
have had to raise prices of goods and
services even as consumers grapple with
Direct effects lower purchasing power.

The war is a threat to the commitments made In the medium term, African governments
at COP26 in Glasgow. To cope with the must reform their agricultural and energy
COVID-19 pandemic, G20 countries spent at sectors to attract more investments and
least USD 14 trillion on health-care systems, ensure greater food and energy security
wages, and welfare. Only 6% (about USD for their population. This will be necessary
860 billion) was allocated to areas that will for addressing existing challenges, as
cut emissions; including making buildings well as enhancing the efficiency and good
more energy efficient, electronic vehicles governance of public and semi-public
and installing renewables. As the prospect of companies operating in these sectors.
economic recession looms, the promises of
COP26 could be pushed into the background
in order to deal with the energy shocks as 1.3 Rebuilding the prosperity
Europe strives to reduce its dependence pillar
on Russia. Thus, options like the reopening
of coal-fired power plants and increasing Three main areas of action could be
hydrocarbon imports to Europe are being considered to mitigate the impact of the
considered. crisis on the Prosperity pillar:
Indirect effects • Support countries in redirecting resources
to those most vulnerable to food and fuel
Due to the current inflation, most low-income price shocks. This would be critical in
households are currently in a situation preventing further increases in hunger
of energy poverty, or have no access to and poverty rates as a result of the pass-
electricity. To reduce their energy costs, through inflation effects of the war. In the
millions of poor households rely on firewood medium term, African countries should
and charcoal for cooking and heating. adopt a holistic approach to overall
Purchasing power is falling due to the rise in macroeconomic management along
food prices. with efficient governance and regulatory
frameworks for countries at risk of critical
In Africa’s industrial sector, the rise in natural
destabilization by the inflation crisis.
gas prices poses a problem for companies
that use this fuel to manufacture chemicals or • Strengthen support for the acceleration
fertilizers. This has added to costs incurred of implementing SDG7. Efforts could be
by many businesses who depend on self- directed to facilitate the development
generation of electricity, as power from the of 300GW of renewable power in Africa
national grid remains unreliable. Particularly by 2030, improve accessibility, ensure
manufacturers, retail outlets and small affordability and reduce persistent energy
businesses in the informal sector who rely inequalities. This will imply supporting

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countries to modernize their grid and Nations system, Member States, private
strengthen their technical capacity sector and civil society to increase energy
through knowledge and technical access.
assistance.
• Africa's development partners could
These efforts to scale existing solutions provide technical and analytical assistance
could eventually provide access to clean to the countries that will be more heavily
and affordable energy to an additional hit on issues ranging from energy supply,
500 million people, focusing on the most food security, foreign exchange reserves,
vulnerable communities. UNDP's energy trade, fiscal sustainability, financial risk
compact can support African countries monitoring, and subsidy reforms to
to mobilize partners within the United strengthening macroprudential policies.

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PEOPLE:
The human impacts of the crisis on poverty and hunger in
Africa

The war in Ukraine could have devastating economic consequences on the continent,
including increased hunger and poverty, given the continent's high dependency on food
imports, rising global food prices, and low agricultural productivity.

Diagram 2: Direct and indirect human channels

INDIRECT EFFECTS
Reduced supply of food to
countries → risk of further
hunger
Lower fertilizer supply →
reduced agricultural Higher global food prices
productivity also increase hunger and
The war in Ukraine poverty
Lower GDP → increased
poverty

DIRECT EFFECTS

2.1 Impacts on poverty in Africa Second, the war could widen inequality
because high food and fuel prices hit the
most vulnerable households. Increased
Direct effects poverty and inequality would not only reduce
overall economic activity but could also
The war in Ukraine can increase poverty in trigger social tensions and unrest.
Africa through three main channels. First,
most households devote a relatively high Third, due to increased oil prices, the war
share of their expenditure to food relative could deprive households of basic amenities
to other countries. This suggests that rather such as electricity and cooking fuel, and thus
than focusing on sustainability, electricity, and increase multidimensional poverty on the
economic transformation, most households continent. To protect themselves from these
are preoccupied with survival. adverse effects, households may result to

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disposing of their assets, which would make 2.2 Impacts on hunger in Africa
them vulnerable to other shocks.
Direct effects
Countries that are highly dependent on food
and fuel imports are the most vulnerable to Decreased food supply from Ukraine and
increases in poverty. Fuel imports in countries Russia will increase hunger
such as Tanzania, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso
account for more than 20% of total imports In 2020, African countries imported USD 4
while food imports account for around 35- billion worth of agricultural products from
40% of imports in Benin, the Gambia and Russia, 90% of which was wheat. Russia and
Comoros. Countries such as Senegal are Ukraine account for 30% of global wheat
highly dependent on both food and fuel production and 80% of sunflower oil. African
imports, and are particularly susceptible to countries are particularly vulnerable due to
an increase in poverty levels. their heavy reliance on imports from Russia
and Ukraine (Figure 5). Egypt is the world’s
Indirect effects largest importer of wheat, with 80% of its
wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. It also
The indirect effects of the crisis on poverty spends USD 955 million on wheat subsidies.
could also result from worsening global Other countries that import significant
economic conditions. As global commodity amounts of wheat from Russia include Benin,
prices and fuel inflation increase, consumption Cabo Verde, Mauritania, Senegal, Guinea,
expenditures will decline. This would lower Sierra Leone, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon,
global growth and, in turn, reduce aggregate Ivory Coast, Mali, and Liberia. Some regions,
demand for African exports. like West Africa, are less dependent on food
Weaker demand for African exports will imports from Russia and Ukraine (accounting
likely slow down economic growth in many for only 1.7% of total calories consumed in this
countries, further reducing people’s incomes sub-region).
and straining public resources for poverty This direct effect on food prices and hunger
reduction measures. Although it is challenging could also have spillover effects, as some
to quantify the effects of the war on poverty land-locked African countries rely on
in Africa at this point, recent evidence from neighboring countries that are tied to the
external shocks in the Economic Community Russia-Ukraine markets. For instance, South
of West African States (ECOWAS) suggests Sudan is highly dependent on imported food
that the COVID-19 pandemic increased supplies from Uganda and Kenya. Between
extreme poverty in West Africa by 3%. 2012-2019, it imported about USD 253 million
(48% of total imports) from Uganda and USD
30 million (30% of total imports) from Kenya.
Rising food prices, notably cereal (wheat
and maize) in source markets will negatively
affect domestic prices in South Sudan2, thus

2. While increasing prices will negatively affect urban consumers, rural producers could actually benefit, although rural producers
would feel the increased cost of imported fertilizers and both groups would be affected by higher energy (and thus transport) costs.
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Figure 5: Wheat and maize imports by origin

Wheat import by origin (%), 2020 Maize import by origin (%), 2020

Benin 100
Madagascar 33.0 67.0
Egypt 86.0 14.0

Congo 76.7 23.3

Egypt 26.2 73.8
Cabo Verde 70.0 30.0

Tanzania 69.6 30.4

Morocco 9.6 90.4
Togo 61.0 39.0

DRC 59.9 40.1 Seychelles 7.8 92.2

Namibia 59.9 40.1

Madagascar 54.2 45.8 DRC 7.8 92.2

Senegal 50.8 49.2

Russia/Ukraine Rest of the World

Source: UN Comtrade

increasing inflation, food insecurity and In addition to the rising costs, many African
humanitarian needs (estimated at USD 1.5 countries are struggling to access supplies
billion or 30% of GDP). of fertilizers. Figure 6 illustrates Kenya’s
monthly fertilizer imports from 2020 to March
Indirect effects 2022. Imports since the start of the war in
Ukraine are significantly below Q1 figures
Higher global prices of fertilizer would reduce during the two preceding years. Agricultural
agricultural productivity in Africa, putting yields will be well below average this year.
further pressure on food supply This scenario is likely to play out in most
African countries.
The war has led to a 21% increase in the
price of fertilizers. Russia is a major source Higher global food prices would make Africa’s
of the ingredients used to produce fertilizers, food imports more expensive, also pushing
accounting for 24% of world exports of up hunger
ammonia and 40% of world exports of
ammonium nitrate. In Africa, several countries The price of milling wheat exceeded its
have initiated fertilizer subsidy schemes historic high following the onset of the war
to protect farmers against rising fertilizer in Ukraine, to a new record of 351.25 Euros.
prices. These costs, which are anticipated Similarly, the prices of other commodities
to increase, will further put pressure on the such as corn and wheat have also increased.
limited fiscal space in many African countries. These price increases are likely to be

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Figure 6: Total fertilizer imports in Kenya by year

120000

100000
Total Imported in M/T

80000

2020
60000
2021
2022
40000

20000

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Kenya Revenue Authority

transmitted to African countries through Countries such as Congo and Sierra Leone
commodity markets. In addition, scarcity are at high risk of food insecurity since they
and price spikes could result in hoarding, rely on the external sector to a large extent.
speculation and hedging, which could further Countries like Mozambique and Angola are
increase food prices. facing moderate risk with less dependency
on food imports.
Countries that import a higher share of
food typically tend to have higher rates of Furthermore, rising oil prices will also increase
undernourishment. In times of economic competition and demand for sugar cane/beet
downturns – such as global recession, (for ethanol production) – which is one of
conflict, or financial crisis – this dependence Nigeria’s top imported agricultural products.
on external supply of food (and global food As a result, Nigeria’s sugar industries and
prices) undermines countries’ ability to feed products made with sugar could suffer from
their citizens. higher prices, which will likely be passed on
to consumers.

Figure 7: Food prices and insecurity

Food Prices Prevalence of moderate or

Food imports
Country (year on year change %, 3-month severe food insecurity in the
(% of merchandise imports)
moving average) population (%)
Angola 19.3 73.5
Botswana 7.2 12.7 50.8
Burkina Faso 14.3 11.6 47.9
Congo, Rep. 31.3 88.3
Gambia, The 10 28.8 56
Guinea 15.2 26.6 74.1
Lesotho 7.4 28.1 49.7
Madagascar 8 20.2
Mozambique 12.2 19.7 71.1
Sierra Leone 19.4 32.3 83.9
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Source: World Bank/IMF
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2.3 African countries’ responses scope to support African countries in reducing

to the soaring food and energy poverty and hunger, which had already been
prices on the rise due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, in order to have long-term impacts,
African countries differ in terms of their these responses must address structural
response to rising energy and food prices. vulnerabilities such as narrow production
Prior to the current crisis, some countries and export bases, limited intra-continental
(such as Ethiopia, Nigeria and South trade, and endemic food and fuel insecurity.
Africa) had already introduced domestic
UNDP's new Strategic Offer in Africa
price controls and export restrictions. The
articulates a theory of change that addresses
challenge is that such measures guarantee
long-standing structural issues, focuses on
food security of local populations, but at the
building longer term resilience, and puts
expense of local food producers who wish to
countries and communities back on track to
benefit from higher prices. Some countries,
attain the SDGs.
such as Benin, have introduced measures
to ban the exportation of imported products. Thus, priority actions would include:
Other countries, such as Malawi, Zambia, and
Uganda, allow domestic prices to fluctuate, • Accelerating agricultural productivity
but provide targeted cash transfers to the through modernization. Using technology
most vulnerable segments of the population, and incentives to leverage Africa’s
especially women in remote areas. uncultivated arable landmass is critical for
enhancing food security, especially for
African countries are exploring avenues the traditionally marginalized population.
for additional resources to replenish and The goal should be to lower the share of
secure their food stocks, support vulnerable food and fertilizer imports from foreign
populations and cope with rising energy markets.3
and food prices through subsidies, as well
as deal with the rise in internal and external • Prioritizing social protection mechanisms
interest rates to contain inflation. Fiscal space such as temporary basic income. The
is needed to support the most vulnerable aim is to revisit the obstacles of the
households and to help offset rising costs of extension of social protection in Africa in
living. order to engender a reconsideration of
social protection policy. Social protection
2.4 Rebuilding the people pillar systems should be a mixture of social
assistance and social insurance, catering
The national policy responses described for differentiated demographics and
above are limited by public budgets. There is income levels.

3. However, this expansion of the agricultural area should be directed in such a way as to not negatively affect critical ecosystems
such as tropical forests. Importantly, considering generally low yield levels on the continent, a substantial increase of food production
could be achieved not by bringing more area under cultivation but by increasing per-hectare yields, for example through the wider
use of irrigation and, generally speaking, more investment into agricultural supply chains.

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PEACE:
Geopolitical impacts on security and governance in Africa

The consequences of the Russia-Ukraine crisis could transcend economic and social
outcomes. The wider implications could include weakened commitments to democratization,
the resumption of proxy conflicts, undermining of multilateralism, and worsening state-society
relationships across Africa.

Diagram 3: Direct and indirect geopolitical channels

INDIRECT EFFECTS

Geopolitical realignment
Reduction of arms sales Violent demonstrations
Weakening of support for Recycling of small arms
democracy and
multilateralism The war in Ukraine Border disputes for gas deposits

DIRECT EFFECTS

3.1 Stability, peace, and security Figure 8: Voting results of African countries for the
resolution on aggression against Ukraine
risks
Support

Direct effects 28

Geopolitical realignment
Against Against
Voting patterns for the United Nations
1 Support
Russia-Ukraine resolution reveal a possible
return to Cold War-type strategic alliances Abstained

that could re-define geo-political realities Absent Absent

on the continent (Figure 8). This highlights 8
the sensitivity of the crisis for some African
countries, perhaps due to the fear of
Abstained
17
14 Source: United Nations
 T H E I M PA C T O F T H E WA R I N U K R A I N E O N S U S TA I N A B L E D E V E LO P M E N T I N A F R I C A

retaliation (disinformation campaigns, Weakening of support for democracy

election-meddling schemes among others),
significant economic dependence, new African countries’ voting patterns in the UN
Russian diplomatic and military engagements resolution on the Russian invasion of Ukraine
(especially in Mali, the Central African also raise some concerns regarding the
Republic, Sudan, and Madagascar), pressure possibility of a return of authoritarianism on
to accommodate domestic public opinion on the continent, and a weakening of democracy.
Russia, or the need for countries to preserve Between 2000 and 2021, 21 coups d’état
their neutrality and non-alignment due to occurred in 14 African countries. Meanwhile,
ideological factors. a growing trend towards constitutional
revisions has resulted in 16 African countries
Reduction in arms sales eliminating or modifying presidential term
limits (13 of them did so in the past six years).
Over the period 2014-2019, Russia supplied While elections (local, parliamentary, or
49% of the weapons sold to Africa. It also presidential) are scheduled to be held in 17
accounted for 20% of arms sales between African countries in 2022, the crisis in Russia
2011-2020. Countries such as Algeria, Egypt, and Ukraine offers an opportunity for forced
Sudan, Angola, and Nigeria are the major transitions, which could trigger electoral
importers of Russian arms. Russia also crises.
supplies arms to countries such as Nigeria,
that face difficulties in purchasing arms Indirect effects
from the United States due to human rights
concerns. In the short term, rising food and energy
prices could lead to violent demonstrations
if governments fail to introduce measures to
Figure 9: Arms exports from Russia in million USD shield the population from the effects of rising
(2010 – 2021) prices. For instance, demonstrations took
place on March 14, 2022 in Sudan to protest
soaring food and fuel prices. The Arab Spring
Algeria Egypt is a stark reminder of what is at stake. Food
7925 4366 and fuel price increases precipitated protests
that led to violent socio political upheavals
Sudan
313
across North Africa between 2010 and 2012.
Nigeria
The fragility of some African states may raise
249
Ethiopia
123
fears of destabilization if price dynamics and
their repercussions are not addressed.
Uganda

611
In the longer-term, the war could create
unregulated secondary markets in Africa that
recycle small arms, and this could serve as
Angola
501 important sources of arms and weapons for
terrorists and separatist movements. Peace
and security could be undermined due to
increased demand for oil and gas production
Source: SIPRI Trend Indicator
Values (TIVs)
in fragile regions or countries through the

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resurgence of militarized local protests - The apparent withdrawal of Russia's private

e.g., Niger Delta. Also, border disputes for military companies could be a window of
gas deposits - e.g., Kenya-Somalia, Kenya- opportunity to craft peace in these regions.
Uganda, Nigeria-Cameroon — could also be
reignited as prices and demand increase.
3.3 Rebuilding the peace pillar
3.2 Different crisis contexts Three main intervention areas can be
across African regions considered:

In recent years, Russia has intensified the • Strengthening partnerships with regional
presence of its private military companies organizations
(the Wagner Group and the RBS group) in
Africa. Its military involvement in conflicts This war poses some risks to African
in Africa has had far reaching implications. countries to secure political stability, peace,
The Mali case shows how Russian influence and democratic governance. To respond
could complicate global and regional peace to African people’s aspirations for peace
initiatives, such as the France and European and security, the development community
Union engagement with Takuba forces. As must strengthen its support to regional
the war in Ukraine continues, and the Russian mechanisms for peace resolution. Bilateral
government calls for its private military agencies and multilateral partners must
companies to join the battle in Ukraine (in CAR broaden and deepen their cooperation
in particular, where a reduction of mercenaries with the AU and sub-regional organizations
has been noted since the beginning of the (ECOWAS, etc.) to promote peace processes,
war in Ukraine), redeployments of troops safeguard upcoming elections, and facilitate
from African countries could take place (in conflict resolution initiatives.
Mali in particular).
• Strengthening state building, governance,
In the Horn of Africa, pre-existing conflict, and political inclusion
especially in Somalia, and the recent
Africa's development partners must support
escalation of violence in Ethiopia, is an
Africa’s people, its governments, and
opportunity for intervention by Russia,
institutions as they seek to effectively address
including its ties with Eritrea. In the Central
persistent inequalities, weak governance,
African Republic, the conflict remains
and violent conflict. These efforts should
resistant to a sustainable political solution
be directed to support African countries
in the face of armed groups violating the
to develop new tools and partnerships to
Khartoum Peace Agreement signed in 2019.
address the threats (violent protests, election-
The Russian presence with a private military
related violence, and violent extremism) to
company (Wagner Group) - providing an
their stability and peace.
estimated 1,200-2,000 personnel, weapons,
and military instructors - is seen as part of the
problem as it is strengthening the case for a
military solution rather than for a peace deal.

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• Focusing on urban fragility populations are concentrated are fertile

ground for the development of violent
Africa's rapid urbanization raises great extremism, which feeds on the poverty and
hopes for the continent's ability to leverage frustrations of people, especially the youth.
it to transform the population boom into a
demographic dividend. Africa’s cities are A specific focus is needed on the inclusion of
growing by an estimated 15 to 18 million populations from urban suburbs in accessing
people each year. However, this rapid public services, policy-decision making
urbanization is also a driver of the fragility processes, political representation, and
in some African states. The urban suburbs targeted programmes for youth and women’s
where the majority of the migrating rural economic and social empowerment.

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CRITICAL TIME FOR ACTION

The war in Ukraine is having dire financial, Africa and the continent will not be well placed
economic, humanitarian and security to build forward faster, stronger, smarter,
consequences in Europe. As most European more sustainably, and more equitably.
countries emerge from the COVID-19
pandemic, they are faced with a new Speaking towards the end of World War
emergency with fresh and urgent priorities. II, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill
Dealing with the crisis and rebuilding Ukraine is reported to have challenged the world
could divert attention and development not to let a crisis be wasted, emphasizing
assistance. If this happens, the world stands the transformative role that new alliances
to lose significant development gains across could play in reshaping global security and

Figure 10: Post-pandemic scenarios for Africa

Female poverty headcount Improved access to sanitation

(Number of people) (Percent)
100
350,000,000

300,000,000 80

250,000,000
60
200,000,000

150,000,000 40

100,000,000
20
50,000,000

0
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Secondary education gross completion rate Poverty <$1.90 per day

(Percent of population)
(Percent)
50
70

60
40

50
30
40

30
20
20

10 10

0
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

SDG Push scenario High damage scenario COVID baseline scenario

18 Source: UNDP Data Futures

 T H E I M PA C T O F T H E WA R I N U K R A I N E O N S U S TA I N A B L E D E V E LO P M E N T I N A F R I C A

economic relations. His admonition led, in urgently step up their efforts to boost their
part, to the creation of the United Nations. financial support to African countries. For
In like manner, the double-whammy of the instance, advanced economies could re-
war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic channel a share of their Special Drawing
presents Africa with a unique opportunity to Rights (SDRs) resources to Africa. This could
re-chart its development trajectory. UNDP’s be a potential additional source of resources
influential publication, “Leaving No one for countries, cushion against food and oil
Behind: Impact of COVID 19 on the Sustainable shocks, and support debt repayment.
Development Goals” posits four post-
pandemic scenarios for Africa — no COVID, This could help provide short-term financial
COVID, high-damage COVID, and SDG Push. safety nets to prevent further increases in
The SDG Push scenario entails targeted hunger and poverty in Africa, and also finance
investments in green growth, governance, some of the long-term transformational
social protection and technology that changes needed to enhance food and fuel
would reposition and reshape Africa’s SDG security.
attainment trajectory. Under this scenario,
some 100 million Africans will be lifted from It is imperative for the entire development
extreme poverty by 2030, and 234 million by community to commit to closing the USD 2.5
2050. trillion per annum funding gap to achieve
the SDGs by developing countries. New
Moving ahead in Africa in the wake of partnerships and sources of development
the war in Ukraine will require a Big Push. financing are required to meet the rising
A collaborative and coordinated multi- needs of future development in Africa.
year effort is needed to compensate for
the losses, open new opportunities, de- There is an urgent need to provide
risk green transitions, bridge yawning programmatic advice to support domestic
inequalities, mainstream technology, bolster resource mobilization in order to raise the tax-
regional trade, revitalize manufacturing, and GDP ratio from the current 17.5% to more than
consolidate inclusive governance. Three 24% by expanding tax bases and advocating
immediate priorities include: for reduction of unnecessary tax waivers and
incentives that are detrimental to revenue
generation and local SMEs development.
4.1 Intensifying efforts to reframe More should be done to engage the
development finance international and domestic private sector
in transformative sustainable financing
Both COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have mechanisms including impact investment
laid bare the vulnerability of many African engagements, blended financing, public
countries to the financial transmission of private partnerships and International
external shocks. Financial Institutions (IFIs).

Both regional development banks, as well Existing public sustainable financing

as the Bretton-Woods institutions, need to facilities, such as the Global Fund, Global

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Environment Facility, Green Climate Fund, contributed about USD 15 billion in the
and Clean Development Mechanism could form of taxes. Digital technologies can
be transformative tools for development stimulate innovation, economic growth,
financing. and job creation in critical sectors
of the economy by allowing better
interconnection of African markets with
4.2 Resilience in African the rest of the world. They can also
economies increase market access and financing
for the marginalized population, usually
Development actors have a key role to play excluded by the formal financial system.
in enabling Africa to transform its natural Thirdly, digital technologies also help
resource wealth, by taking advantage of leapfrog energy efficiency, create smart
blue-carbon markets, and green financing grids and are the basis for delivering
mechanisms. Furthermore, carbon neutral energy as a service.
risk-sensitive investment, de-risking, impact
investment, environmentally sustainable • Intensifying support to regional
projects, and sustainable energy investment integration and economic diversification:
are among the critical areas where efforts The African Continental Free Trade Area
could contribute to orienting sustainable (AfCFTA) provides a platform to raise
investment in Africa. This would go a long Africa’s low productivity, accelerate
way towards building resilience to global industrialization and promote higher
shocks. investment in the continent. Even when
African countries do produce some of
the food and fuel they need, much of it is
4.3 Economic transformation will often exported, following patterns of trade
be the key driver of change for established in colonial times. Furthermore,
as the 2021 AfCFTA Secretariat/UNDP
Africa Africa Futures Report on value chains
has shown, 8 out of 10 value-chains that
It is critical for Africa's development partners
could benefit from regional integration
to reorient global efforts toward supporting
rely on natural commodities. These
African countries in accelerating the
chains hold opportunities for increased
transformation of their economies. Three
value-added higher up the production
levers could accelerate Africa’s economic
ladder. Together, these efforts can make
transformation:
Africa both more prosperous and less
• Harnessing digital technologies and vulnerable to external shocks such as
promoting free and fair competition will pandemics and conflicts.
be fundamental in revitalizing African
• Mobilize the resources to fill in
economies. In 2020, mobile technologies
the infrastructure gaps (roads,
and services generated USD 130 billion
energy, water, health, education,
of economic value-added in sub-Saharan
etc.) that are constraining Africa’s
Africa, equivalent to 8% of GDP, and
development. Strategic investments in

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infrastructure, energy, transport, and hinder rather than accelerate progress

telecommunications are needed to on SDG 7 and SDG 13.
transform the promise of a free trade
area in the continent into a reality for all Understanding and analysing the full
Africans, regardless of gender, affiliation, mineral supply chain for low-carbon
location, religion or ethnicity. technologies are critical to effectively
realize climate ambitions. African
• Revisit the role of the African countries stand at the beginning of
continent as a supplier for critical minerals’ supply chains, and developing
raw materials. Deploying renewable sustainable resource management
energy technologies without taking into strategies now may offer double wins,
account the mineral demand risks and helping both boost economic growth to
the additional carbon emissions from reduce climate and environmental risks
upstream and end of life activities may (and in return have an impact on exports).

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Regional Bureau for Africa