Research Thursday January 16 20:10:16 2025 Page 1

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Statistics/Data analysis

User: Văn Chí Vĩ

Project: Public Capital Productivity

name: <unnamed>
log: D:\dữ liệu Gasoline.smcl
log type: smcl
opened on: 16 Jan 2025, 20:00:48

1 . import excel "D:\dữ liệu mảng\drive-download-20250107T124910Z-001\Data\Produc_MrU_Updated.xlsx", sheet("Sheet1"

(12 vars, 818 obs)

2 . xtreg P_CAP HWY WATER UTIL PC GSP EMP UNEMP, fe

must specify panelvar; use xtset
r(459);

3 . xtset STATE_NUM YR

Panel variable: STATE_NUM (unbalanced)

Time variable: YR, 1970 to 1986
Delta: 1 unit

4 . xtreg P_CAP HWY WATER UTIL PC GSP EMP UNEMP, fe

Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 816

Group variable: STATE_NUM Number of groups = 48

R-squared: Obs per group:

Within = 1.0000 min = 17
Between = 1.0000 avg = 17.0
Overall = 1.0000 max = 17

F(7,761) = 2.54e+13
corr(u_i, Xb) = 0.9206 Prob > F = 0.0000

P_CAP Coefficient Std. err. t P>|t| [95% conf. interval]

HWY .9999992 4.40e-07 2.3e+06 0.000 .9999983 1

WATER .9999999 4.87e-07 2.1e+06 0.000 .9999989 1.000001
UTIL 1 2.44e-07 4.1e+06 0.000 .9999996 1.000001
PC 8.81e-08 5.31e-08 1.66 0.098 -1.62e-08 1.92e-07
GSP 6.88e-08 8.74e-08 0.79 0.431 -1.03e-07 2.40e-07
EMP -5.29e-06 3.72e-06 -1.42 0.156 -.0000126 2.02e-06
UNEMP .0000738 .0001467 0.50 0.615 -.0002143 .0003618
_cons .0071172 .0032839 2.17 0.031 .0006705 .0135638

sigma_u .00758147
sigma_e .00616657
rho .60183779 (fraction of variance due to u_i)

F test that all u_i=0: F(47, 761) = 1.13 Prob > F = 0.2529

5 . xtreg P_CAP HWY WATER UTIL PC GSP EMP UNEMP, be

Between regression (regression on group means) Number of obs = 816

Group variable: STATE_NUM Number of groups = 48

R-squared: Obs per group:

Within = 1.0000 min = 17
Between = 1.0000 avg = 17.0
Overall = 1.0000 max = 17

F(7,40) = .
sd(u_i + avg(e_i.)) = 0 Prob > F = .
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P_CAP Coefficient Std. err. t P>|t| [95% conf. interval]

HWY 1 . . . . .
WATER 1 . . . . .
UTIL 1 . . . . .
PC 2.25e-08 . . . . .
GSP -5.71e-08 . . . . .
EMP 6.09e-07 . . . . .
UNEMP -.0002464 . . . . .
_cons .00081 . . . . .

6 . reg P_CAP HWY WATER UTIL PC GSP EMP UNEMP i.STATE_NUM

Source SS df MS Number of obs = 816

F(54, 761) > 99999.00
Model 6.2898e+11 54 1.1648e+10 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual .028938223 761 .000038027 R-squared = 1.0000
Adj R-squared = 1.0000
Total 6.2898e+11 815 771750480 Root MSE = .00617

P_CAP Coefficient Std. err. t P>|t| [95% conf. interval]

HWY .9999992 4.40e-07 2.3e+06 0.000 .9999983 1

WATER .9999999 4.87e-07 2.1e+06 0.000 .9999989 1.000001
UTIL 1 2.44e-07 4.1e+06 0.000 .9999996 1.000001
PC 8.81e-08 5.31e-08 1.66 0.098 -1.62e-08 1.92e-07
GSP 6.88e-08 8.74e-08 0.79 0.431 -1.03e-07 2.40e-07
EMP -5.29e-06 3.72e-06 -1.42 0.156 -.0000126 2.02e-06
UNEMP .0000738 .0001467 0.50 0.615 -.0002143 .0003619

STATE_NUM
2 -.0024968 .0024481 -1.02 0.308 -.0073027 .0023091
3 -.0046006 .002506 -1.84 0.067 -.0095201 .0003189
4 .0295557 .0146443 2.02 0.044 .0008077 .0583037
5 -.0021084 .0024621 -0.86 0.392 -.0069417 .0027249
6 -.0000683 .0025637 -0.03 0.979 -.0051011 .0049645
7 -.0041925 .0029804 -1.41 0.160 -.0100433 .0016582
8 .0086485 .0038777 2.23 0.026 .0010363 .0162608
9 .0040499 .0025228 1.61 0.109 -.0009026 .0090025
10 -.0057367 .0028149 -2.04 0.042 -.0112626 -.0002108
11 .0157085 .0067942 2.31 0.021 .0023709 .0290461
12 .0048358 .0022514 2.15 0.032 .0004161 .0092556
13 .0040235 .0025447 1.58 0.114 -.000972 .0090191
14 -.0017954 .0023528 -0.76 0.446 -.0064142 .0028234
15 .0038558 .0026681 1.45 0.149 -.001382 .0090935
16 -.0037039 .004282 -0.86 0.387 -.0121099 .0047021
17 -.0058886 .0028462 -2.07 0.039 -.011476 -.0003013
18 .0044073 .0028969 1.52 0.129 -.0012795 .0100942
19 .0061352 .0037816 1.62 0.105 -.0012883 .0135588
20 .0106576 .0049418 2.16 0.031 .0009565 .0203588
21 .0064887 .0027509 2.36 0.019 .0010883 .011889
22 -.0020573 .0022561 -0.91 0.362 -.0064862 .0023716
23 .0045916 .0025255 1.82 0.069 -.0003662 .0095494
24 -.0041949 .0026284 -1.60 0.111 -.0093547 .000965
25 .001534 .0025719 0.60 0.551 -.003515 .006583
26 -.0027173 .0029264 -0.93 0.353 -.0084621 .0030276
27 -.0028677 .0028449 -1.01 0.314 -.0084525 .0027171
28 .0057977 .0036334 1.60 0.111 -.001335 .0129304
29 -.0053937 .0027155 -1.99 0.047 -.0107245 -.0000629
30 .0233541 .0134924 1.73 0.084 -.0031326 .0498407
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31 .0029385 .002704 1.09 0.278 -.0023697 .0082466

32 -.0042025 .0027716 -1.52 0.130 -.0096433 .0012383
33 .0143991 .0064216 2.24 0.025 .0017929 .0270052
34 -.0044314 .0024808 -1.79 0.074 -.0093015 .0004387
35 -.0027709 .002318 -1.20 0.232 -.0073213 .0017794
36 .0174974 .006429 2.72 0.007 .0048766 .0301181
37 -.0017467 .0029824 -0.59 0.558 -.0076015 .004108
38 -.0011254 .0025571 -0.44 0.660 -.0061453 .0038944
39 -.0016159 .0026715 -0.60 0.545 -.0068603 .0036286
40 .0038143 .0023968 1.59 0.112 -.0008908 .0085194
41 .0063556 .0093297 0.68 0.496 -.0119594 .0246707
42 -.0017176 .0026205 -0.66 0.512 -.0068619 .0034267
43 -.0017173 .0029443 -0.58 0.560 -.0074973 .0040627
44 .005272 .0034352 1.53 0.125 -.0014716 .0120155
45 .0006572 .0030905 0.21 0.832 -.0054096 .006724
46 .0003874 .002379 0.16 0.871 -.0042828 .0050575
47 .0040326 .0026573 1.52 0.130 -.001184 .0092492
48 -.0049861 .0029132 -1.71 0.087 -.010705 .0007327

_cons .0046825 .0030273 1.55 0.122 -.0012604 .0106254

7 .

b) Các kết quả hồi quy B (hệ số giữa các biến nguyên nhân) giữa các mô hình FEM và LSDV có sự giống nhau,
nhưng tuy vậy trong các kết quả F giữa 2 mô hình này, cách lấy khoảng cách có sự khác nhau nhất định. Mô hình
BEM lại cho thấy sự khác nhau trong kết quả hồi quy B ( các biến nguyên nhân) so với 2 mô hình còn lại.
c) Các tiểu bang có p-value < 5%, thì có tác động cố định của các tiểu bang lên năng suất vốn công (GSP), thông qua
các tác động cố định là: tổng vốn công (vốn làm đường cao tốc, vốn tiện ích nước, vốn tiện ích), vốn tư nhân, tỷ lệ
việc làm, thất nghiệp.