1 1 1

Ex. 1 : If A and B are two events such that P (A) = 2 and P (B) = 4. Also P (A and B) = 8 . Find P (A or B).

Soln. :
1 1
Given : P (A) = , P (B) =
2 4
1
P (A and B) = P (A ∩ B) =
8

 P (A or B) = P (A ∪ B)

= P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B)
1 1 1 5
= + – =
2 4 8 8

Ex. 2 : Find the probability that a card drawn is a king or queen from
a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
Soln. :
Here n (S) = 52
Total king cards are A.
4
Probability of card drawn is king is P (king) =
52

Total queen cards are 4.

Probability of card drawn is queen is,

4
P (queen) =
52

Drawing king or queen both are mutually exclusive.

 By Addition Theorem,

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
4 4 8 2
= + = =
52 52 52 13

Ex. 3 : A number is selected from first 30 natural numbers. What is the

probability that it will be divisible by 3 or 4. Here n (S) = 30
Soln. :

Let A be the event that number is divisible by 3

 A = {3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30}

 n(A) = 10
n (A) 10
P (A) = =
n (S) 30

Let B be the event that the number is divisible by 4.

 B = {4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24, 28}
 n (B) = 7
n (B) 7
 P (B) = =
n (S) 30
A ∩ B = {12, 24}
 n (A ∩ B) = 2
2
 P (A ∩ B) =
30
  The probability that the number will be divisible by 3 or 4 is given by,

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B)
10 7 2 15 1
= + – = =
30 30 30 30 2

Ex. 1 : Two cards are drawn from a pack of 52 cards.

Find the probability that both with be face card or red card.
Soln. :
Two cards drawn from a pack of 52 cards in 52C2 ways.

 n(S) = 52
C2

Let A be the event that both cards draw are face card.

There are total 12 face card in a pack of 52 cards. (3 each from 4 shits)
 n (A) = 12
C2
12
C2 66
 P (A) = 52 
C2 1326

Let B be the event that both cards drawn are red card.

Total red card in a pack are 26 (13 Heart and 13 diamond)

 n (B) = 26
C2
26
C2 325
 P (B) = 52 =
C2 1326

A and B are not mutually exclusive as there are 6 red face cards.
 n (A ∩ B) = 6
C2
6
C2 15
P (A ∩ B) = 52 =
C2 1326

 P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B)
66 325 15 376
= + - =
1326 1326 1326 1326

Ex. 5 : A box contains 20 tickets bearing numbers 1 to 20.

Three tickets are drawn one by one without replacement.
Find the probability that they are drawn in order (i) even, odd, even.
(ii) even, even, odd.
Soln. : Out of 20 there are 10 even and 10 odd number
without replacement leads to dependent event.
10
Probability of drawing first even number ticket out of 20 is,
20
Probability of drawing second odd (is independent of drawing even card)
10
out of 19 cards is,
19
9
Probability of drawing third even card out of 18 cards is,
18
 Probability that the card drawn in order even, odd, even is,
 10 10 9
P (even, odd, even) =   = 0.1316
20 19 18
10
2. Probability of drawing first even card is, probability of drawing second even card (without replacement) out
20
9
of 19 is, .
19
10
Probability of drawing third odd card out of 18 is .
18
10 9 10
 P (even, even, odd) =   = 0.1316
20 19 18

Ex. 6 : A bag contains 4 yellow, 5 green and 6 orange marbles. If 2 marbles are drawn
One by one without replacement. Find the probability that both marbles are green.
Soln. :
n (S) = 4 yellow + 5 green + 6 orange = 15 marbles
Let A be the event of drawing first green marble
5
 P (A) =
15

Since we are not replacing the marble.

Let B be the event of drawing second green marble (depends on event A)

4
 P (B  A) =
14

 The probability that both marbles are green is,

P (A ∩ B) = P (A)  P (B  A)
5 4
 = 0.09524
15 14

Ex. 7 : 70% of children in class likes maths and 35% like both Maths and English.
What is the percentage who like Maths also like English.
Soln. :
70% of children like Maths.
70
 P (Maths) = = 0.7
100
35% likes both Maths and English
 P (Maths and English) = 35% = 0.35
To find the probability of children who like Maths also like English depends on probability of Maths
P (Maths and English)
 P (English / Maths) =
P (Maths)
0.35
= = 50 %
0.7

Exercise 6.1

1. A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability of getting a queen or a heart or a red card.
2. A and B are two candidates seeking job. The probability that A getting selected is 0.5 and the probability that
both A and B getting selected is 0.3. Find the probability of B getting selected.
3. An urn contains 20 red and 10 blue balls. Two balls are drawn one after other without replacement. What is
probability that both the balls drawn are red ?
4. A coin is tossed two times. The toss resulted in one head and one tail. What is the probability that is the first
throw resulted in a tail.

6.2 Partition of a Sample Space

The events A1, A2, …. An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.

i.e A1 ∩ A2 ∩ …. ∩ An = 
and A1 ∪ A2 ∪ …. ∪ An = S

then A1, A2, …. An are called partition of sample space S.

6.2.1 Theorem of Total Probability

Let A1, A2, …. An be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and B is another event

associated with S, then

n

P (B) =  P (Ai) P (B  Ai)

i=1

Proof : A1, A2, …. An are mutually exclusive

 A1 B, A2 B, …. An B are mutually exclusive such that B = A1 B ∪ A2 B ∪ …. ∪ AnB

 
n n
 P (B) = P   Ai B =  P (Ai B)
i = 1  i=1
[∵ Ai B are mutually exclusive]
n
=  P (Ai)  P (B  Ai)
i=1
n
 P (B) =  P (Ai)  P (B  Ai)
i=1

6.2.2 Bay’s Theorem of Conditional Probability

Bay’s theorem provides another way to calculating conditional probability.

Specifically, one conditional probability can be calculated by using the other conditional probability.

Bay’s Theorem
Let A1, A2, …. An be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and B is another event
associated with Ai then
P (Ai)  P (B | Ai)
P (Ai  B) = n ,
 P (Ai)  P (B | Ai)
i=1

i = 1, 2, = …. n
Ex. 1 : An urn contains 4 white and 6 black balls and another urn contains 3 white
and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random from the first urn and placed in the second
urn and then 1 ball is drawn at random from second urn. What is the probability that the ball
drawn is white ?
Soln. :

Solution : Two balls drawn from the first urn at random that may be both white, one white and

one black or both black.

Let A1 be the event that both balls drawn are white.
Let A2 be the event that one ball is white and other is black and
let A3 be the event that both balls drawn are black.
4
C2 6
Then P (A1) = 10 = ,
C2 45

4  6 24
P (A2) = 10 =
C2 45
6
C2 15
P (A3) = 10 =
C2 45

Let B be the event of drawing a white ball from the second urn after transfer
 P (B  A1) = P (drawing a white ball  second urn contains 5 white and 5 black balls)
5
=
10

P (B  A2) = P (drawing a white ball  second urn contains 4 white

4
and 5 black balls)= and
10
P (B  A3) = P (drawing a white ball  second urn contains 3 white and 7 black balls)
3
=
10
By total probability theorem,
3
P (B) =  P (Ai) P (B  Ai)
i=1

= P (A1) P (B  A1) + P (A2) P (B  A2)

+ P (A3) P (B  A3)

= = 0.38

Ex. 2 : Two cards are drawn at random from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
What is the probability that the second card is an ace.
Soln. : The first card draw may or may not be Ace.
 Let A1 be the event that the first card drawn is a Ace.
Let A2 be the event that the first card drawn is not a Ace.
4 48
 P (A1) = and P (A2) =
52 52
Let B be the event that the second card drawn is Ace.
3 4
 P (B  A1) = and P (B  A2) =
51 51
 By total probability theorem ;
2
P (B) =  P (Ai) P (B  Ai)
i=1

= P (A1) P (B  A1) + P (A2) P (B  A2)

4 3 48 4
=  + 
52 51 52 51
204
= = 0.07692
2652

Ex. 3 : A football team wins 60% of its games when it scores the first goal, and 10% of its
games when the opposing teams scores first. If the team scores the first goal about 30%
of time, what is the probability that team wins a game.
Soln. :
Let A1 be the event that first team scores first goal
30 3
 P (A1) = 30% = =
100 10
Let A2 be the event that second team scores first goal,
70 7
 P (A2) = 70% = =
100 10

Let B be the event that the team wins.

60
 P (B  A1) = 60% = =
100
6
10
10 1
And P (B  A2) = 10% = =
100 10
 By total probability theorem,
P (B) = P (A1) P (B  A1) + P (A2) P (B  A2)
3 6 7 1 25
=  +  =
10 10 10 10 100
1
= = 0.25
4

Ex. 4 : A bag contains 5 ball and it is not known how many of them are white.
Two balls are drawn at random from the bag and both were white. What is the chance that all
the balls in the bag are white ?
Soln. :

2 balls drawn are white out of 5.

 The bag may have 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 white balls.

Let A1 be the event that bag contains 2 white balls

Let A2 be the event that bag contains 3 white balls Let A3 be the event that bag contains 4

white balls and A4 be the event that bag contains 5 white balls.

As number of white balls in the bag are not known and all events A1, A2, A3, A4

Equally likely
 1
 Let P (A1)=P (A2) = P (A3) = P (A4) =
4

Let B be the event that 2 white balls are drawn

2
C2 1
 P (B  A1) = 5 =
C2 10
3
C2 3
P (B  A2) = 5 =
C2 10
4
C2 3
P (B  A3) = 5 =
C2 5
5
C2
P (B  A4) = 5 =1
C2

 By Bay’s Theorem
P (A4)  P (B  A4)
P (A4 | B) = 4

 P (Ai)  P (B  Ai)
i=1
1
1
4 1
= = = 0.5
11
+ + 1
3 3 2
4 10 10 5 
+

Ex. 5 : A certain test for a particular cancer is known to be 95% accurate. A person
submits the test and the result is positive. Suppose that the person comes from the
population of 100,000 where 2000 people suffers from the disease. What is the probability that
the person under test has that particular cancer?
Soln. :
Let A1 be the event that the person has cancer and let A2 be the event that the person does not have cancer.
2000 2
 P (A1) = = = 0.02
100000 100
And P (A2) = 1 – 0.02 = 0.98

Let B be the event that test is positive when a person has a cancer.
P (B  A1) = 0.95

P (B  A2) = 0.05

 By Bay’s theorem,
P (A1) P (B | B1)
P (A1  B) =
P (A1) P (B | A1) + P (A2) P (B | A2)
0.02  0.95
=
0.02  0.95 + 0.98  0.05

= 0.279

Ex. 6 : Among 4 coins there is one false coin with ‘head’ on both sides. A coin is chosen
at random and tossed 4 times. If ‘Head’ appears all the 4 times. What is the probability that
the false coin has been chosen.
Soln. :
Let A1 be the event that the coin chosen is true coin.
 and let A2 be the event that false coin is chosen
3 1
 P (A1) = and P (A2) =
4 4

Let B be the event that head appears in all 4 tosses

1 1 1 1 1
 P (B  A1) =    =
2 2 2 2 16
and P (B  A2) = 1

 By Bay’s theorem,
P (A2)  P (B | A2)
P (A2  B) =
P (A1) P (B | A1) + P (A2) P (B | A2)
1
1
4 16
= = = 0.8421
3 1 1 19
 + 1
4 16 4

Ex. 7 : A man speaks truth 3 times out of 5. When a die is thrown, he states that the number
obtained is 5. What is the probability that the number obtained is actually 5.
Soln. :
Let A1 be the event that the number 5 is obtained and let A 2 be the event that number 5 does not obtained.
1
 P (A1) =
6
1 5
and P (A2) = 1 – =
6 6
Let B be the event that man states that the number obtained is 5.
2
 P (B  A1) =
3
1
And P (B  A2) =
3
 By using Bay’s theorem,
P (A1)  P (B | A1)
P (A1  B) =
P (A1) P (B | A1) + P (A2) P (B | A2)
1 2

6 3
=
1 2 5 1
 + 
6 3 6 3
2
= = 0.2857
7

Ex. 8 : In a bolt foctory, machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 35%, 25% and 40% of the total out of
which 10%, 5% and 4% are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random and found to be defective. Find the
probability that is was manufactured by a machine A.
Soln. : Let A1, A2, A3 be the events that the bolt is manufactured by machine A, B and C respectively.
35
 P (A1) = 35% = = 0.35
100
25
P (A2) = 25% = = 0.25
100
40
and P (A3) =40% = = 0.4
100
Let B be the even that the bolt is defective
 10
then P (B  A1) = 10% = = 0.1
100
5
P (B  A2) = 5% = = 0.05
100
4
and P (B  A3) = 4% = = 0.04
100
 By Bay’s Theorem,
P (A1)  P (B | A1)
P (A1  B) =
P (A1) P (B | A1) + P (A2) P (B | A2) + P (A3) P (B | A3)
0.35  0.1
=
0.35  0.1 + 0.25  0.05 + 0.4  0.04

= 0.5512