ECONOMIC DATA

The economist intelligence unit:

Vietnam's economy will continue to grow throughout the duration of the pandemic, but
the pace of real GDP growth will return to trend only gradually over 2021-23. This
will be largely the result of a slow recovery in external demand to pre-pandemic levels
in major markets (including for tourism services, which will lag the recovery in goods
exports). It will also reflect elevated levels of unemployment and under-
employment. Although unemployment will fall to near pre-crisis levels by early 2022, a
trend of significantly lower investment in the domestic private sector will persist into
the latter part of that year. Nonetheless, overall gross fixed investment growth will be
strong in 2021 on account of a recovery in foreign direct investment (FDI), mainly into
export-oriented manufacturing.

GDP in 2022, at the age of the report was on 410. 6, after being continually increasing
and growing. Comparing this data which the one analyzed in 2024, according to the
World Bank, there have been again an increasing of the GDP, but in a slower trending.

Which was the process of democratization of that country?

How covid affected to institutions? Had there been changes?

We must deliver an analysis based on frameworks, which are those ideas that help
us analyze, those elements which determine that an event happens. We must study
that events and how they have changed the political environment in that country,
so the deliverable would be an analysis.

Vietnam cuantitative data, based on the World Bank data:

36.1 in the GINI inequality. No clear tendency, very irregular.

GDP: 433.702 millones USD

Densidad de Población: 320.89/km² (42nd) (world population review
2024).

Population: 99.5 millones de habitantes (Fondo de Población de NNUU

2022).

Renta per Cápita: 4.178 USD (Banco Mundial, 2023).

Esperanza de vida: 75,2 (IDH 20203).

Tasa de Natalidad: 15.49 nacimientos / 1.000 habitantes (Banco

Mundial, 2023).

Alfabetización: 91,1% (Banco Mundial 2023).

According to the freedom house, Vietnam has 19 points over 100. It is

classified as a not free country. In political rights there is a mark of 4
points over 40. In civil liberties there is a mark of 15 points over 60.

How have been the evolution in terms of transparency, participation,

social and political rights

Which is the country with most trade with Vietnam?

The USA, there have been a normalization of diplomatic relations in

1995. U.S.-Vietnam relations have become increasingly cooperative
and comprehensive, evolving into a flourishing partnership that spans
political, economic, security, and people-to-people ties. The United
States and Vietnam have concluded a trade and investment
framework agreement; they also have signed textile, air transport,
customs, and maritime agreements. U.S.-Vietnam bilateral trade has
grown from $451 million in 1995 to nearly $124 billion in 2023.

According to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international

trade: 109 billion of exports to United States from Vietnam. Only 11.4
billion of exports of USA to Vietnam.
Relation with USA:
https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-vietnam/#:~:text=Bilateral
%20Economic%20Relations&text=The%20United%20States%20and
%20Vietnam%20have%20concluded%20a%20trade%20and,nearly
%20%24124%20billion%20in%202023.

How is the relation with France?

Who is the president?

Cuong Long.

How much time has been the president in the power?

Since October 2024. Vietnam and France have officially upgraded

their relations to a "comprehensive strategic partnership", Vietnam's
highest level, during a visit by Vietnamese President To Lam to Paris.

What is its recent political discourse?

It is important to make a timeline.

Year of approval of the constitution, economic capacity determining

the right to vote, when did women access voting and how was the
process. When the capacity to vote was acquired by the whole

In 1946 was stablished the first democratic Constitution for the

country. Under this Constitution, legislative authority was vested in
the National Assembly, which was the highest institution in the
country.

The current Constitution was adopted by the 13th National Assembly in 2013.
This constitution institutionalizes basic viewpoints of the Communist Party of
Viet Nam on economic and political reforms, socialist goals, socialist democracy
and citizens’ freedom rights.

Women right to vote, according to the global data on national parliament, was
recognized in 1946 after the independence from the French colonial rule and
approval of the first constitution.

In 1946, the first universal suffrage general election was held to elect
the National Assembly, the supreme organ of power of the new
Vietnam. In the latest constitution, it is stablished the following:

Article 27 states:
The citizen shall, upon reaching the age of eighteen, have the right to
vote, and upon reaching the age of twenty-one, have the right to
stand for election to the National Assembly and the People’s Councils.
The practice of these rights is provided by the statute.

Ethnographic research is to analyze how it is structured (role of men, role of women,

black and white people, etc.) Also, we should analyze the discourse analysis of some
decisions made by the government of the country.
TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL: CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS INDEX
2024.

VIETNAM (40) illustrates how systemic corruption, extending from lower level to
high-ranking public officials, drives environmental destruction and forest degradation.
Bribes and kickbacks to senior Vietnamese officials, alongside customs and border
personnel, have facilitated the smuggling of illegally harvested Cambodian timber into
Vietnam and laundering of it into the legal market.

POLITICAL DATA:

Also we should analyze the democratization process

The form of the State is a one-party rule.

The cabinet is constitutionally responsible to the Quoc Hoi (the National Assembly),
which is elected for a five-year term.

The 500-member unicameral National Assembly meets biannually and typically serves a
five-year term. Its chairwoman is Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan. The assembly formally
appoints the president, the prime minister and the cabinet

Centrally controlled provinces and municipalities are divided into towns, districts and
villages, which have a degree of democratic accountability via elected people's councils.

AT LEAST 6 DIFFERENT ARTICLES TO DO THE ESSAY. CONNECT THE

ARTICLES TO OUR COUNTRY. READ THE REQUIREMENTS

ANALYZE THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT.

ANALYZE THE POLITICAL SYSTEM WHICH CAN BE PARLAMENTARIAN,

PRESIDENTIAL OR SEMI-PRESIDENTIAL.
WE SHOULD KNOW ABOUT THE POWERS OF THE LEGISLATIVE, HOW THEY
WERE ELECTED, HOW THE ELECTIONS WERE HELD. IT HAS THE
INSTITUTION BUT THERE IS NOT A DEMOCRACY BECAUSE THERE IS ONLY
ONE PARTY.

FOR DEMOCRATIZATION: WE SHOULD USE THE ARTICLES FOR THE

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK.

What is the stage of democratization?

We should look to the indexes, in order to obtain data from the country. This data
should be compared with the articles on Canvas. The result of that is the essay.
Then, we should analyse the common and the different parts of the countries of the
group. Also, we can find in LIBRARY ON CANVAS other information that should
be valuable. There are there, several articles about our countries. We should make
up our bibliography.

If we are going to cite Machiavelli but hadn’t read it, we should put. Machiavelli, as
cited in…(the book or article)

Only 1 camera: The National Assembly of Vietnam

They are elected by the people, through universal suffrage. all candidates must be vetted
and approved by the Vietnam Fatherland Front, which is controlled by the Communist
Party of Vietnam (CPV).

The camera is in charge of three main functions: to legislate, to decide on important

national issues, to exercise supreme supervision over all activities of the State.

We should analyze the accountability and transparency of institutions, and how that is
related to democracy, in this case non-democracy. Also, we can put into relation the
evolution of the GDP (how was previously and how is now). Also, the gini index and
how that is related with non-democracies. ALL THIS DATA MUST BE PUT INTO
RELATION WITH DE-DEMOCRATIZATION. ALSO, WE MUST PUT THE
POLITICAL SYSTEM (PRESIDENTIAL, SEMI-PRESIDENTIAL AND
PARLAMENTARY) INTO RELATION WITH NONDEMOCRACIES. (JUAN LINZ
PERILS)

ALSO ANALYSIS OF CIVIL SOCIETY

ANNUAL REVIEW OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

How independent

The dissident role on the creation of democracies. Institutions, democratization,

disidents in each country. Who are the gods of democracy? Disidents in totalitarian
regimes and democratic regimes.Who are the ones fighting for democracy?

JOHN MCCORMICK PAGE 207

Role of political elites, the polarization of the political context and the lack of
commitment of political elites into democracies.

TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS

BOOK:

We should be analyzing the language, the timeline, the people, the institutions and the
events.
Which is the language (colloquial or not colloquial) that the authors uses when
explaining the events?

Who is the author? Was she born in the country? ---- direct source, how much the author
is expressing her opinion? How are they referring to whom? How does the author refers
to Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge?

It is a common people history. There is not a elite biography, so it would be tougher to

identify the elements.

How is the period or timeline justified?

Not only the time, but what is the author using to explain the events (explica lo que pasa
mediante eventos que han ocurrido en su familia, en su país, en su ciudad) que capítulos
emplea y porque cambia de los capítulos
We should identify why she changes the chapter, because is going to be because of
people, institutions, or events. This would tell us which criteria is she using for telling
the story. So, we should identify the decision of the author, why did she used this
events, this institutions and these people? We should go deeper on the book.

How is the way people talk to each other in dictatorships?

The important in the timeline is the break, that tells us what the author considers that is
important.

Use Britannica to know about the timeline of the events. This will allow us to
differentiate the view of the author and the view of historians. WHAT HAPPENED
BEFORE THOSE 4 YEARS. WHO ARE THE KHMER ROUGE? WHY IS THIS
HAPPENING.

ARTICLE 3

Framework: This article conceptualizes and analyses democratic resilience as a two-

stage process – either by avoiding the onset of autocratization altogether or, once it has
started by avoiding a full breakdown.

A set Resilience Has Weakened Since the End of the Cold War.
While democracies were resilient in the 20th century, autocratization has surged since
1993. 61% of autocratization episodes have occurred after 1993, indicating increased
vulnerability among modern democracies.
The findings suggest that the post-Cold War democratic expansion failed to build
sufficiently strong institutions, making newer democracies more prone to decline.

Which is the research question?

Which is what distinguishes democracies that prevail against a global wave of

authorization from those that do not?

How does, methodology speaking, respond to the research question?

It uses ERT datasets and electoral democracy index. It uses this datasets when
democratic breakdown occurred or was averted. Taking into consideration that:
Breakdown occurs if a country (a) becomes a closed auto- cracy as defined by the
Regimes of the World classification (b) becomes an electoral autocracy for at least one
election, or (c) becomes an electoral autocracy for at least five years.

Methodologically speaking, it combines an onset model as well as a

selection model, and focus on four of the main factors identified in
these two literatures: insti- tutional constraints on the executive,
economic factors, neighbouring regimes, and previous democratic
experience. So, it uses a part of data related to this four factors.

From where is the data?

ERT (EPISODES OF REGIME TRANSFORMATION) dataset, V-dem dataset,

Madisson Project, electoral democracy index (EDI)

Which are the conclusions?

CONCLUSIONS ABOUT DEMOCRATIC RESILIENCE OVER A PERIOD OF TIME

This section offers a panoramic overview of global trends in democratic resilience from
1900 to 2019. We report on three main findings: First, democracies have been highly
resilient to onset of autocratization, but second, this resilience is now substantially
weaker in the period after the Cold War. Third, fatality rates are very high once auto-
cratization has started.

This article conceptualizes and analyses democratic resilience as a two-stage process –

either by avoiding the onset of autocratization altogether or, once it has started by
avoiding a full breakdown.

CONCLUSION 1: resilience to the onset of autocratization among

democracies is high. There have been only 96 cases of episodes of
autocratization in 70 demo- cratic countries over the 120 years of
available data. Democracies are resilient over 90% of the time.

CONCLUSION 2: Once democracies “select in” to autocratization,

breakdown resilience is weaker. The global fatality rate is 77% – only
19 of the 84 completed epi- sodes managed to change the course and
avert breakdown.

CONCLUSION 3: We find corroboration for claims that view the

judiciary as the “last bulwark” against democratic breakdown. Judicial
constraints are positively and significantly associated with resilience
to the onset of autocratization and to democratic breakdown once
autocratization has begun.

CONCLUSION 4: We find that higher level of economic development is

associated with a greater onset resilience but has zero influence on
avoiding breakdown once an episode has begun.

CONCLUSION 5: For breakdown resilience, what seems to matter more

is having democratic neighbours and longer previous democratic
experiences.

1. **What is democratic resilience, and why is it important?**

2. **What are the two stages of democratic resilience, and how
do they differ?**
3. **What does the study say about the current global trend of
democracy? Are more democracies failing now than before?**
4. **What is the main argument of the article?**

---

### **🔹 Methodology & Data Questions**

5. **What dataset does the study use, and how does it measure
democratic resilience?**
AUTHORITARIAN REGIME

Hannah Arendt defined authoritarianism and totalitarianism. Totalitarian regimes are

based on ideologies. Ideology is the reason of every decision process.

The elements of authoritarian are: the absence of change in power (there is no election
so there is no turnover, also there is a theft of public office, there have been also an
historical dominance of authoritarianism.

Totalitarian regimes use overall, repression as an instrument and also propaganda and
ideology to control the citizens. The tools of the state are used by the dictator. Some
examples are North Korea, the Khmer Rouge, etc. Inside authoritarian regimes, can be a
monarchy, a single party regime, a military regime, etc. There is no checks and
balances, there is no contrapower to the dictator, also a loyalty network built up by
killing people or by clientelism. In single party regimes, the party controls the
institutions, the ones at the political party are those who are on the top of institutions.

The way of mantainig power in these regimes is by repression. Repression means

targeted violence. There is also co-optation of the elites, of the opposition and of the
citizens. The economic performance

PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM

Most of the parliamentary system are the outcome of a shift of power

LEGISLATIVE POWER

It may vary between a presidential and a parliamentary system.

BOOK DATA

p.57
p.59
pg.60

pg.62--- Change from April to July.

Pg. 69
Pg.73
Pg. 77