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Math4E-Lecture-4.3-Probability

The document explains the fundamentals of probability, including definitions of sample space, events, and various types of probabilities such as independent and dependent events. It provides examples to illustrate how to calculate probabilities for single and repeated events, as well as the concepts of mutually exclusive events, intersections, and unions. Additionally, it discusses the mathematical formulas used to determine probabilities in different scenarios.

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Atasha Jelaine Bitome
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6 views14 pages

Math4E-Lecture-4.3-Probability

The document explains the fundamentals of probability, including definitions of sample space, events, and various types of probabilities such as independent and dependent events. It provides examples to illustrate how to calculate probabilities for single and repeated events, as well as the concepts of mutually exclusive events, intersections, and unions. Additionally, it discusses the mathematical formulas used to determine probabilities in different scenarios.

Uploaded by

Atasha Jelaine Bitome
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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PROBABILITY

Probability is the ratio of successful events to


the total number of events.
Notation Used
Symbol Meaning
S A sample space of permissible random
outcomes
n(S) The number of elements in S
E A set of specified outcomes in S
n(E) The number of elements in E
p(E) The probability that E will happen, or
more briefly, the probability of E
Example:

Find the probability that a 5 will turn up in


one throw of a die.
S = 1,2,3,4,5,6
E= 5

Using these symbols,


𝑛𝐸 1
p(E) = =
𝑛𝑆 6
Probability of success + Probability of Failure = 1

1. Probability in Single Event. If an event can


happen in h ways, it can fail in f ways are likely
equal, then in a single trial the probability will
happen is given by,
ℎ 8 8
𝑝= = =
ℎ + 𝑓 8 + 2 10
And the probability that it will fail is given by,

𝑓 2 2
𝑞= = =
ℎ+𝑓 8+2 10
Complement
 The event that A does not occur, denoted as A', is called
the complement of event A.

Intersection
 The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by
A ∩ B, is the event containing all elements that are
common to A and B.

Union
 The union of the two events A and B, denoted by A∪B,
is the event containing all the elements that belong to A
or B or both.
A. Mutually Exclusive Events:
If not more than one of them can happen in a
given trial or events that have no outcomes in
common are said to be disjoint or mutually
exclusive.

If E1 and E2 are any two events, mutually


exclusive or not, with probabilities p(E1) and
p(E2), then the probability of E1 or E2 is,

p(E1 ∪ E2) = p(E1) + p(E2) – p(E1 ∩ E2)


Example:
If 1 card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards, find the
probability that it will be red or an ace.
Solution:
E1 – set of red cards E2 – set of Aces
n(E1) = n(reds) = 26 n(E2) = n(ace) = 4
n(E1 ∩ E2) = n(reds ∩ Aces) =2 (the red Ace of heart and red
Ace of diamond)
26 4
p(E1) = p(E2) =
52 52

2
p(E1 ∩ E2) =
52

p(E1 ∪ E2) = p(E1) + p(E2) – p(E1 ∩ E2)


26 4 2 7
= + − =
52 52 52 13
Example:
If the probability of marrying Marilyn is ½ for
Leo and 1/3 for Ed, what is the probability
that one of them will marry her?

Solution:
p(E1 ∪ E2) = p(E1) + p(E2)
1 1 5
= + =
2 3 6
B. Independent Events:
 If the probability of the occurrence of event E1
does not affect the probability of the occurrence
of event E2, then the events are independent.

 If the probability of the event E1 occurring is


p(E1) and the probability of an independent
event E2 occurring is p(E2), then the
probability that both will occur is,

p(E1 ∩ E2) = p(E1) p(E2)


Example:
1. A bag contains 6 white marshmallows and 4
green marshmallows. A marshmallow is
drawn from the bag and replaced, and then a
second marshmallow is withdrawn. Find the
probability that the first marshmallow is
white and the second is green.
Solution:
6 4
p(E1) = p(E2) =
10 10

6 4 6
p(E1 ∩ E2) = p(E1) p(E2) = =
10 10 25
C. Dependent Events:
 If the probability of the occurrence of event E1
affect the probability of the occurrence of event
E2, then the events are independent.

 If the probability of the event E1 occurring is


p(E1) and if after E has occurred, the probability of
the second event E2 occurring is p(E2/E1), then
the probability that both will occur is,

p(E1 ∩ E2) = p(E1) p(E2/E1)

Note: E2/E1 indicates that E2 happens after E1


occurred
Example:
 From the previous sample problem, if one
marshmallow is withdrawn and not replaced
before the second marshmallow is
withdrawn, find the probability that both
will be white.
6 5
p(E1) = p(E2/E1) = white
10 9
marshmallow is not replaced
p(E1 ∩ E2) = p(E1) p(E2/E1)
6 5 1
= =
10 9 3
D. Repeated Events:
 If p is the probability that an event will
occur in one trial, then the probability that
it will occur exactly r times in n trial is,

𝑟
𝑛𝐶𝑟(𝑝 )(1 − 𝑝) 𝑛−𝑟

Where
n = no. of trial
r = no. of desired successful outcome
p1 = probability of a successful
outcome in a trial
Example:
 A bag contains 4 white socks and 5 blue socks.
The sacks are drawn from the bag one at a time
and are replaced after each drawing. What is the
probability of drawing exactly 3 blue socks in 5
trials?
Solution:
In one trial, p(blue) = 5/9
𝑛𝐶𝑟(𝑝𝑟 )(1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑟
5 3 5 5−3 5! 5 3 5 2
5𝐶3( ) (1 − ) = ( ) (1 − )
9 9 3!2! 9 9
= 20000/59049 = 0.339

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