Does Information and Communication Technology Impede Environmental Degradation Fresh Insights From Non-Parametric Approaches
Does Information and Communication Technology Impede Environmental Degradation Fresh Insights From Non-Parametric Approaches
ARROW@TU Dublin
2022
Mehmet Altuntas
Nisantasi University, Turkey
Recommended Citation
Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, Ephraim Bonah Agyekum, Mehmet Altuntaş, Sadriddin Khudoyqulov, Hossam
M. Zawbaa, Salah Kamel, Does information and communication technology impede environmental
degradation? fresh insights from non-parametric approaches, Heliyon, Volume 8, Issue 3, 2022, e09108,
ISSN 2405-8440, DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09108.
This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the School of Computer Science at ARROW@TU Dublin. It
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Heliyon
journal homepage: www.cell.com/heliyon
Research article
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Although ICT has played a critical role in the socio-economic growth of human cultures, it has also brought with it
Information and communication technology significant environmental risks. Nevertheless, scholars remain divided on this topic; some believe that ICT has had
CO2 emissions a positive influence on the quality of the environment, while others believe that ICT has created major envi-
Quantile-on-Quantile regression
ronmental issues. Hence, this research is another effort to assess the effects of ICT on CO2 emissions in the top 10
Granger causality in quantiles
ICT nations (Denmark, Japan, Luxemburg, South Korea, Netherlands, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and
the United Kingdom) using a dataset from the period between 1986Q1 and 2019Q4. All prior studies have
established symmetric association between ICT and CO2. As a result, we applied the novel non-parametric ap-
proaches (quantile-on-quantile regression and Granger causality in quantile) to assess this association. The
findings from the QQR uncovered that in the majority of the quantiles, for Denmark, Japan, Luxemburg, Neth-
erland, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom and Switzerland, the effect of ICT on CO2 emissions is negative, while
in the majority of the quantiles, the effect of ICT on CO2 emissions is positive for the Netherlands, South Korea,
and Iceland. Furthermore, we applied the novel Granger causality in the quantiles approach and the outcomes
provided evidence of bidirectional causality between CO2 emissions and ICT in all the selected nations. The study
proposes that sustainable ICT should be used to improve carbon reduction and energy savings potential by
optimizing other industries, including managing and monitoring energy usage.
1. Introduction et al., 2021; Adebayo et al., 2022; AbdulKareem et al., 2022). Due to
harsh weather, droughts, rising sea levels and other health issues,
Climate change and global warming have been among the most growing carbon emissions (CO2) and other greenhouse gas (GHG)
contentious problems among governments, scientific institutions and emissions represent huge challenges to the future of humanity (Abdouli
policymakers since the early 21st century (Awosusi et al., 2022; Chatti and Hammami, 2017; Adeshola et al., 2021; Adebayo and Kirikkaleli,
et al., 2019; Miao et al., 2022; Obumneke et al., 2022). Environmental 2021). As a result, scholars and environmentalists are attempting to
degradation remains an impediment to the model of sustainable eco- investigate factors that, on the one hand, contribute to the reduction of
nomic growth because it brings a plethora of environmental challenges, CO2 while still fostering global economic expansion. Information and
including energy dependence, deforestation, climate change, air pollu- Communication Technology (ICT) is one such factor that has completely
tion and pure water scarcity, all of which have been viewed as major revolutionized human civilization. Moreover, ICT has made a significant
threats since the 1960s (Akadiri et al., 2021; Fareed et al., 2021; Shan contribution to both emerging and developed nations’ growth (Chatti,
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (H.M. Zawbaa).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09108
Received 15 December 2021; Received in revised form 4 February 2022; Accepted 9 March 2022
2405-8440/© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
T.S. Adebayo et al. Heliyon 8 (2022) e09108
2021; Palvia et al., 2018; Güng€ or et al., 2021; Kirikkaleli and Adebayo, Furthermore, the debate of whether ICT growth is a factor affecting CO2
2021). emissions is supported in this study, due to the growing global integra-
Although the importance of ICT in fostering economic expansion tion in developed economies, where communication technologies are
cannot be exaggerated given its extensive use in advanced nations, its expediting the distribution of information.
role in harming the environment is contentious (Danish et al., 2020; In addition, in most past studies, the scholars have utilized Panel data
Palvia et al., 2018). ICT footprints are becoming more potent, and as a that has the issue of aggregation bias and gives prejudiced outcomes. To
result, the consumption of energy due to ICT use has increased at a rapid circumvent this issue, we have utilized the time series data, which offer
rate of 7% per year over the previous few decades (Chaabouni and Saidi, results of each nation individually. The current paper is driven by the
2017). By 2012, the global energy usage due to ICT-related products had debate surrounding the impact of ICT on CO2 emissions, with the aim of
increased to 4.7%, an increase of 3.9% compared to 2007 (Chatti, 2021). assessing the effect of ICT on CO2 emissions in the top 10 ICT countries.
Resultantly, by 2012, the overall contribution of the ICT industry to The primary intention of the research is to contribute to the ongoing body
global CO2 emissions had reached 2% (Greenpeace International Gree- of studies in three areas:
peace, 2014). The ICT industry's share of CO2 emissions is rising because
the production of ICT-related components pollutes the ecosystem, while a. This research assesses the ICT-CO2 emissions nexus by applying the
on the other hand, increased usage of the internet, computers, mobile quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach proposed by Sim and Zhou
phones, and other devices has augmented the demand for energy, which (2015). The distinctiveness of the QQR approach lies in its capacity to
is a major contributor to the degradation of the environment (Ahmed and amalgamate the fundamentals of non-parametric estimation and
Le, 2021). analysis of quantile regression. In addition, the QQR method shows
The majority of research on the influence of ICTs on environmental the effectiveness of recognizing the due interrelationship between the
issues has investigated the impact from the lens of energy usage. One line variables across different quantiles of the distribution.
of research found that ICT has a positive influence on environmental b. Moreover, the results gathered from the current paper will offer an
contamination due to the increased consumption of energy as a result of inclusive illustration of the critical ICT–CO2 emissions interrelation-
the development of a wide range of ICT-linked products and their ship that traditional approaches are unable to detect. This will aid in
widespread use (Asongu, 2018; Avom et al., 2020; Lee and Brahmasrene, capturing the nature of the asymmetric interrelationship between the
2014; Raheem et al., 2020). Other studies have examined the positive quantiles of ICT and CO2, which traditional linear estimation methods
influence of ICT on environmental quality as a result of the greater usage fail to do, while also providing a broader clarification of the inter-
of ICTs, which improves the efficiency of the energy sector and thus re- connectedness and associations between ICT and CO2. To the best of
duces CO2 and other GHG emissions (Chatti, 2021; Irawan, 2014; Liu the authors' understanding, this is the first paper to apply the QQR
et al., 2021; Purewal and Haini, 2021; Usman et al., 2021; Wang and Xu, approach to assess the interconnection between ICT and CO2 emis-
2021). As a result, we can infer that ICT products have an impact on CO2 sions. Thus, the current paper fills the gap in the literature.
emissions; nevertheless, it is not yet known whether the path of this effect c. Finally, we utilize the innovative Granger causality in quantiles
is positive or negative. Thus, using the top 10 ICT nations, we assessed developed by Troster et al. (2018), which explores the causal inter-
the effect of ICT on CO2 emissions. In all of the nations studied, mobile relationship in all quantiles. We can distinguish between the causa-
usage is increasing at a faster rate (See Figure 1). These nations (South tion impacting the tails of the distribution and the median by using
Korea, Netherlands, Iceland, Norway, United Kingdom, Denmark, Swe- this technique. In addition, the Troster et al. (2018) methodology is
den, Japan, Switzerland and Luxemburg) are top ICT users and are reliable over a variety of quantiles, and it emphasizes the non-linear
developed nations. The goal of picking this nation is to guide these na- condition in a QR model.
tions’ pollution reduction initiatives. These nations make a major
contribution to global economic output. As a result, it is worthwhile to The remaining sections are organized as follows: Section 2 presents a
explore the impact of ICT on CO2 emissions in these nations. synopsis of past studies, which is followed by the data and methods in
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
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T.S. Adebayo et al. Heliyon 8 (2022) e09108
Section 3. The findings and discussion are presented in Section 4 and ICT combined with a high income enhances the environment. In the case
Section 5 concludes the research. of Africa, Asongu & Le Roux (2017) found that ICT, as defined by internet
and mobile and mobile usage, increases CO2; however, ICT also aids in
2. Literature review reducing the negative ecological consequences of FDI and trade. Using
the GMM approach, Asongu (2018) gave a similar perspective in the
ICT is widely mentioned as a critical component of socio-economic same region. The outcomes corroborated prior research that showed that
growth. ICT can play a critical role in terms of health, education, growing ICT increases CO2 emissions, although mobile phones and trade
culture, income disparity, poverty alleviation, employment, living lower CO2. Similarly, Avom et al. (2020) found that ICT increases
standards, trade, consumption of energy, and economic expansion emissions in the SSA area both indirectly and directly via energy usage.
(Faisal et al., 2020). ICT is also projected to have a positive influence The research of Lee and Brahmasrene (2014), which examined panel data
on governmental responsiveness and openness, healthcare and educa- from the period between 1991 and 2009 for the ASEAN area, provided
tion options, cultural inventiveness, and the social integration of na- evidence supporting the theory that ICT has a detrimental effect on the
tions with diverse cultural origins. Government agencies, investors, environment. Nonetheless, their analysis had several flaws, including the
foreign and international agencies, public and private enterprises, use of first-generation unit root methodologies, outdated data, as well as
non-governmental organizations, and political groups are all involved cointegration and long-run approaches that did not account for CD and
in the economic and social growth of any nation. Modernization theory homogeneity. ICT boosts emissions in the G7 nations, but trade decreases
(Grossman and Krueger, 1991), social development theory (Hakkio and emissions and the interplay of FDI and ICT also mitigates CO2 (Raheem
Rush, 1991), and economic development theory (Hakkio and Rush, et al., 2020).
1991) are some of the concepts that explain the development process Considering the aforementioned research, it is clear that ICT is a two-
(Haseeb et al., 2019). Social traditions, health, social contacts, and the edged sword that can be positive or negative and its impacts vary
growth of fashion, education and trends are all examples of social depending on the amount of ICT penetration in a nation, the methodol-
development (Houghton, 2010). Economic development, on the other ogy utilized, and the timeframe studied. Moreover, there is no research in
hand, includes jobs creation, improved standards of living, and sig- the literature in the context of the top 10 ICT countries. While there is no
nificant economic expansion (Güng€ or et al., 2021). Although both agreement on the interrelationship between ICT and CO2, the following
theories suggest that ICT has played a very important role in economic hypothesis is drafted:
and social growth, they differ in terms of the nature of such
Hypothesis 1. ICT will reduce carbon emissions, thereby improving
contributions.
the quality of the environment
Over the years, significant scholars established that ICT plays a
crucial role in abating deterioration of the environment. For example,
3. Data and methodology
the research of Irawan (2014) found that ICT abates the deterioration of
the environment. Similarly, Usman et al. (2021) assessed the ICT-CO2
3.1. Data
interconnection in selected Asian nations using a dataset from 1990 to
2018. The investigators utilized the ARDL approach, and their empirical
In order to capture the effect of information communication tech-
outcomes unveiled that ICT plays a crucial role in enhancing the quality
nology (ICT) on CO2 emissions (CO2), we utilized the top 10 ICT nations1
of the environment. Likewise, using STIRPAT and spatial econometric
(South Korea, Iceland, Switzerland, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway,
models, the research Sun and Kim (2021) using datasets between 2000
Luxembourg, Japan and Sweden). The dataset for this empirical analysis
and 2017 reported that ICT mitigates CO2 in China. Moreover, the
spanned between 1986Q1 and 2019Q4. The data for ICT for the inves-
research of Purewal and Haini (2021) on the ICT-CO2 nexus in ASEAN
tigated countries are not available before 1985, which limits our study
economies using data from 1996 to 2019 disclosed that an upsurge in
timeframe to the period between 1986 and 2019. The dataset for ICT was
ICT in the selected nations contributes to a decrease in deterioration of
obtained from the database of the World Bank, while CO2 data was
the environment. Furthermore, using data from 1995–2018, Wang and
gathered from the database of British Petroleum. ICT and CO2 are
Xu (2021) explored the association between internet usage and CO2 in
measured as mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) and CO2
70 countries and their outcome disclosed that the decrease in CO2
metric tons per capita, respectively. Table 1 reports the descriptive sta-
emissions in the selected 70 nations is due to an increase in internet
tistics for ICT and CO2 for all the top 10 ICT nations. Figure 2 presents the
usage. Likewise, Liu et al. (2021) scrutinized the ICT-CO2 interconnec-
analysis flow.
tedness in 33 Asian nations from 2000 to 2015, and the research finding
concludes that a decrease in CO2 is attributed to an upsurge in ICT in
the 70 nations selected. Likewise, the research of Ahmed and Le (2021) 3.2. Methodology
on the association between ICT and CO2 in 6 ASEAN nations using
CUP-FM long-run estimator disclosed that ICT lower CO2. Moreover, In this research, in order to assess the effect of information commu-
using GMM, Chatti Chatti (2020) used a dataset between 2002 and nication technology (ICT) on CO2 emissions (CO2) in the top 10 ICT
2014 for 43 countries to assess the nexus between ICT and environ- nations, we applied non-parametric approaches (quantile-on-quantile
mental quality and their finding disclosed that ICT enhances the quality regression and Granger quantile causality). Furthermore, the QQR
of the environment. Moreover, the research of N'dri et al. (2021) in approach includes the advantages of both non-parametric and quantile
developing countries revealed that a surge in ICT enhances the quality regression methods (Alola et al., 2021; Sharif et al., 2021). It regresses
of the environment. Likewise, the study of Ramzan et al. (2022) re- the ICT quantiles on CO2 to assess the model's asymmetry and spatial
ported that ICT could predict CO2. Similarly, the study of Chatti and features over time (Sharif et al., 2020). We employed the quantile
Majeed (2021) reported that ICT plays a vital role in enhancing the Granger causality test provided by (Troster et al., 2018) to detect the
quality of the environment in 46 nations using a dataset between 1998 asymmetric causal interrelationship between variables under examina-
and 2016. Kim (2021) assessed the association between CO2 and ICT in tion over the specified bandwidth parameter h ¼ 0.05 as a complement to
South Korea using a dataset from 1990 to 2016 and the empirical the QQR technique. The Quantile Granger causality and QQR techniques
outcome disclosed that ICT does not have a substantial influence on are briefly discussed in this section.
CO2.
On the flip side, some studies established a positive ICT-CO2 associ-
ation. For instance, in a panel of rising nations, Danish et al. (2018) found 1
https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/publications/mi
that ICT damages the environment. They did imply, nevertheless, that sr2017/MISR2017_Volume2.pdf.
3
T.S. Adebayo et al. Heliyon 8 (2022) e09108
CO2 Emissions
3.3. Quantile-on-quantile regression Furthermore, standard regression, as explained and advocated by Stone
(1977) and Cleveland (1979), consolidates the dimension of the feature
As previously stated, the current investigation adopts the Quantile-on in order to match a linear regression framework, hence reducing pre-
Quantile (QQ) approach in accordance with the description and guide- dictive capacity. On the contrary, whenever the quantiles of a parameter
lines provided by (Sim and Zhou 2015). This approach, also known as the are evaluated to the quantiles of another variable, as permitted by the QQ
modification of the conventional quantile regression approach, allows for approach, the predictive potential improves as more variance among the
the evaluation of the impacts of the quantile of one parameter over the components is addressed. According to the study's goal, the
other. Furthermore, it is a blend of two processes: first, quantile regres- non-parametric QQR analysis is depicted as follows:
sion, in which the approach examines the influence of a parameter on the
quantiles of another parameter, while the second, as to do with the CO2t ¼ βθ ICT t þ εθt (1)
estimating in a non-parametric process. The quantile regression analysis,
introduced by Bassett and Koenker (1978) is an improved extension of Where: ICT and CO2 stands for information communication technology
classic OLS-based regression analysis wherein the estimate of one vari- and carbon emission while t stands for time. Moreover, θ indicates the
able is paled in comparison to the estimate of another parameter, conditional distribution of CO2 in the qth quantile, and Ɛ indicates the
although the Quantile regression can clarify more fluctuation of the error term of the quantile wherein the conditional qth is exactly zero.
quantiles and thus allows statisticians to anticipate with minimal errors. Finally, βθ depicts a function that is unknown due to inadequate of
4
T.S. Adebayo et al. Heliyon 8 (2022) e09108
knowledge on the association between CO2 and ICT. The QQ approach is Furthermore, if the bandwidth is set to a little amount, it will result in
based on the aggregate behavior of the constructs when assessing the more variation, whilst setting it to a big value would result in prejudice.
association between two variables. Also, in a situation where there are As a result, the values that fall between variance and biasness must be
any disturbances in ICT, either favorable or unfavorable, they will have a chosen while determining the bandwidth. Following the suggestions by
proportional impact on CO2. For instance, the pattern of disruptions in Sim and Zhou (2015), the current investigation used the bandwidth
ICT can be either favorable or unfavorable, and in such a case, the CO2 parameter value of h ¼ 0.05.
may respond properly or asymmetrically. Furthermore, because βθ is
uncertain, the estimated first-order Taylor advanced function is indicated 3.4. Granger causality in quantiles
in Eq. (2).
The present research contributes to the literature on the ICT and CO2
βθ ðICTt Þ βθ ðICT t Þ þ βθ' ðICT t ÞðICT t ICT t Þ: (2) nexus by applying the novel Granger causality in the quantiles approach
proposed by Troster et al. (2018). According to Granger (1969), if Xi
Where: βθ' indicates the partial derivative of βθ ðICTt Þ in relation of ICTt
cannot forecast Zi, it means that Xi does not cause series Zi. Assume
that is referred to as the marginal influence, which denotes the standard
regression analysis' slope. Also, it is observed in Eq. (2) that the indicators vector ðM i ¼ M Z X e X
i ; M i Þ 2 R ; e ¼ o þ q; with M i is the previous evi-
0
were indexed doubly, i.e., βθ ðICT t Þ and and βθ' ðICT t Þ in relation to θ and dence set of X i M Xi ¼ ðX i1; ……X iq; Þ 2Rq . Besides, Ho hypothesis is
τ. However, the function of θ and ICT t are βθ ðICT t Þ and βθ' ðICT t Þ. How- depicted as follows:
ever, ICT t is a function of t, that reveals that βθ ðICT t Þ and βθ' ðICT t Þ can be X ↛Z
Z
Z
H o : F Z Z M i ;M x
i ¼ F Z Z M i for all X 2 R; (6)
expressed as Eq. (3):
βθ ðICTt Þ βθ ðθ; τÞ þ β1 ðθ; τÞðICT t ICT t Þ: (3) F Z ð:M Zi ; M i Þ is regarded as the conditional scattering function of Zi
x
In addition, by substituting Eq. (2) for into Eq. (1), the subsequent The research of Troster (2018) was followed in assessing the Dt test,
equation is displayed in Eq. (4): which identifies the framework of QA () for all π2Γ⊂[0,1], upon
Granger causality null hypothesis. The same can be defined below:
CO2t ¼ β0 ðθ; τ Þ þ β1 ðθ; τ ÞðICT t ICT τ Þ þ μθt (4)
|fflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflffl{zfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflfflffl}
Z ∂ðπ Þ ¼ λ1ðπ Þ þ λ2ðπ ÞZ
ð*Þ QARð1Þ : m1 M i i1 þ μt ψ 1
x ðπ Þ (7)
In Eq. (4) (*) indicates the qth provisional quantile of CO2. The pro-
Where the values ∂ðπÞ ¼ λ1ðπÞ; λ2ðπÞand μt re-assessed by the probability
visional quantile differs from the ordinary conditional quantile in that the
of supreme in quantiles grid space that is equal, and ψ1 X ð:Þ is the
variables are indexed doubly, i.e., β0 and β1 in regards of q and t,
opposing of a normal orthodox dispersal function. By evaluating the QAF
respectively, and it reflects the qth quantile of CO2 with the tth quantile
model in Eq. (7) with the lagged parameter to another parameter, we can
of ICT. There is a potential of a discrepancy in variables between the qth
further adjust the causality sign between the variables. Eq. (8) presents
quantile of CO2 and the tth quantile of ICT. Furthermore, a linear rela-
the QAR (1):
tionship between parameters is expected at all times. As a result, Eq. (3)
analyzes the model's aggregate interconnections depending upon that Z
Q Zπ ¼ Z i M i ;M x
i ¼ λ1ðπÞ þ λ2ðπÞZ i1 þ ηðπÞX i1 þ μtψ1
X (8)
distribution-based reliance of the researched variables. Furthermore, in
Eq. (4), ICTt and ICT t should be substituted by their computed equiva-
dt . As a result, the evaluations from the localized linear
dt and ICT 4. Findings and discussion
lents, ICT
regression analysis of the variables β0 and β1 , which are evaluated by β0
The current research commenced by assessing the stationarity attri-
and β1 that may be computed as the minimization issue illustrated in Eq.
bute of the variables of investigation (ICT and CO2). In doing so, we
(5):
applied both PP and ADF unit toot tests to catch ICT and CO2 stationarity
n
X dt Þ τ features. The ADF and PP outcomes are depicted in Table 2 and the
dτ Þ L M n ð ICT
Minδ0 δ1 σ ∅ ½CO2t δ0 δ1 ð ICT
dt ICT outcomes unveiled that all the variables are I (1) variables. Furthermore,
t¼1
h
we check the nonlinearity characteristics of ICT and CO2 in the selected
(5) nations using the BDS test initiated by Broock et al. (1996). Table 3 re-
ports the BDS result with the outcomes suggesting that all the variables
Where: σ ∅ indicates the loss of the quantile, which is explained as
are non-linear. This outcome corroborates the Jarque-Bera outcomes in
σ ∅ ðuÞ ¼ uðθ 1ðu < 0ÞÞ; L (*) is the kernel function and the kernel
Table 2. Based on this understanding, using linear approaches such as
parameter bandwidth is indicated as h. The Gaussian kernel is employed
CCR, DOLS, FMOLS, ARDL, POLS, VECM and many more will produce
in this research to determine the weight of the neighborhood observa-
misleading results. Therefore, the current research utilized
tions of CO2t, which is among the most commonly adopted, prominent,
non-parametric approaches (quantile-on-quantile and Granger causality
and discussed kernel functions, due to its ease of computation and pro-
in quantiles) to assess the interconnectedness between ICT and CO2 in the
cessing. The advantage of this kernel is that it is symmetrical as it reaches
selected nations.
zero, and the distant samples are assigned minimal weights. In this cur-
After the nonlinearity characteristics have been established, we pro-
rent research, the previously stated weights and the distance between the
ceed to assess the non-linear cointegration between ICT and CO2 in the
d t are negatively proportionate and are
function's distributions of FGLO top 10 ICT nations. In doing so, we use the quantile cointegration sug-
P
n
symbolized as Fnd ðICTt Þ ¼ 1n dk > ICT
Ið ICT dt ; wherein the reward of gestion by Xiao (2009) to catch the long-run interconnectedness between
k1 ICT and CO2. Table 4 reports the quantile cointegration outcomes and the
the stochastic process that will come to terms with the quantile ICTt is outcome disclosed that the null hypothesis of “no cointegration” is
symbolized by t. Moreover, choosing bandwidth is critical when utilizing rejected for all the top 10 ICT nations. Thus, in long-run evidence of
non-parametric approaches. This is because it controls the smoothing of cointegration is supported in South Korea, the United Kingdom, Sweden,
the computed results by determining the magnitude whereby the Iceland, Japan, Norway, Luxemburg, Denmark, Netherland, and
neighborhood estimates fluctuate around the specified position. Switzerland.
5
T.S. Adebayo et al. Heliyon 8 (2022) e09108
ICT CO2
ADF PP ADF PP
Note: 1%, 5% and 10% level of significance are denoted by *, ** and *** respectively.
Denmark Japan Iceland Luxemburg Netherland Norway South Korea Sweden Switzerland UK
Information and Communication Technology (ICT)
M2 49.785* 48.947* 48.947* 47.080* 47.972* 45.055* 49.734* 49.744* 39.647* 47.371*
M3 53.240* 52.383* 52.383* 50.149* 51.388* 48.333* 52.991* 53.429* 41.714* 50.808*
M4 57.644* 56.760* 56.761* 54.037* 55.759* 52.468* 57.215* 58.126* 44.533* 55.172*
M5 64.097* 63.132* 63.130* 59.718* 62.124* 58.469* 63.404* 64.916* 48.870* 61.499*
M6 73.001* 71.987* 71.987* 67.495* 70.860* 66.575* 71.910* 74.216* 55.003* 70.170*
Carbon Emissions (CO2)
M2 36.011* 31.418* 31.418* 34.671* 40.126* 45.486* 42.126* 39.647* 49.558* 32.754*
M3 37.544* 33.175* 33.175* 36.411* 41.386* 48.098* 44.704* 41.719* 53.146* 34.419*
M4 39.723* 35.448* 35.448* 38.581* 43.416* 51.585* 47.948* 44.533* 57.734* 36.758*
M5 43.244* 38.764* 38.764* 41.887* 46.958* 56.909* 52.763* 48.870* 64.409* 40.377*
M6 48.424* 43.414* 43.414* 46.491* 52.059* 64.330* 59.432* 55.003* 73.574* 45.617*
Model Coefficient Supτ jVπ ðτÞj CV1 CV5 CV10 The current research assessed the effect of ICT on CO2 emissions after
Denmark β 7841.97 4729.57 3898.76 2771.59 the long-run cointegration between ICT and CO2 had been established. In
CO2t Vs ICTt α 716.166 418.524 324.792 101.987 doing so, we used the novel quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR)
Japan β 3286.58 2899.14 2015.44 1839.67 approach initiated by Sim and Zhou (2015). Figure 3 shows the effect of
CO2t Vs ICTt α 425.797 290.112 192.391 108.943 ICT on CO2. Figure 3a presents the influence of ICT on CO2 in Denmark.
Iceland β 3276.185 2181.316 1147.878 896.265 In all quantiles (0.1–0.95), we observed that ICT has a significant and
CO2t Vs ICTt α 342.724 229.026 187.467 103.475 negative effect on CO2 in Denmark in all quantiles (0.1–0.95) of both ICT
Luxemburg β 8455.78 5145.71 4798.92 2114.56 and CO2; however, in the quantiles of (0.10–0.30 and 0.45–0.65) of CO2
CO2t Vs ICTt α 779.996 437.565 389.475 151.308
and all tails (0.1–0.95) of ICT, the effect of ICT on CO2 is negative and
Netherland β 9294.67 7437.56 4924.2 2140.58
weak. In summary, we observe a negative ICT-CO2 interconnection in all
CO2t Vs ICTt tails (0.1–0.95) of both ICT and CO2. The influence of ICT on CO2 in
α 864.225 569.866 245.119 164.957
Iceland is reported in Figure 3b. In all quantiles (0.1–0.95) of both ICT
Norway β 4313.07 3251.43 2487.18 1585.43
CO2t Vs ICTt and CO2, we observe a positive ICT-CO2 interconnection suggesting that
α 401.132 294.056 149.856 1063.028
in all quantiles (0.1–0.95), the positive effect of ICT on CO2 is dominant.
South Korea β 9127.132 7360.05 5614.38 3171.36
However, in the extreme tail (0.75–0.95) of CO2 and the higher tail
CO2t Vs ICTt α 884.933 642.264 426.440 218.022
(0.70–0.95) of ICT, the positive effect of ICT on CO2 is observed.
Sweden β 4515.06 3491.764 2746.51 1896.34
Generally, the positive effect of ICT on CO2 is observed in all tails
CO2t Vs ICTt α 506.058 437.608 297.454 137.868 (0.1–0.95) of both ICT and CO2.
Switzerland β 2647.69 1649.71 1274.19 807.178 Figure 3c presents the effect of ICT on CO2 in Japan. In the lower tail
CO2t Vs ICTt α 240.777 173.827 101.513 82.2206 (0.10–0.40) of both ICT and CO2, we observe a negative ICT-CO2 asso-
UK β 4844.45 3833.91 2705.85 1239.31 ciation; however, from 0.50-0.60, a positive interconnectedness between
CO2t Vs ICTt α 434.874 297.177 191.267 107.888 ICT and CO2 can be observed. Furthermore, in the upper tails (0.65–0.80)
6
T.S. Adebayo et al. Heliyon 8 (2022) e09108
7
T.S. Adebayo et al. Heliyon 8 (2022) e09108
of both ICT and CO2, the influence of ICT on CO2 is negative and weak. In that the relationship between ICT and CO2 has broad heterogeneity and
summary, the negative effect of ICT on CO2 is negative and weak. variance across the selected nations, requiring individual attention when
Figure 3d presents the effect of ICT on CO2 in Luxemburg. In the lower, formulating environmental and ICT policies in the top ICT nations.
middle and upper tails (0.1–0.95) of the combination of both ICT and
CO2, the negative influence of ICT on CO2 is evident, although the 4.3. Granger causality in quantile outcomes
negative effect decreases as we move to the higher tail. In summary, we
conclude that the influence of ICT on CO2 is negative across all quantiles The present research applied the novel Granger causality in quantiles
(0.1–0.95). The effect of ICT on CO2 for the Netherlands is presented in suggested by Troster (Troster et al., 2018) to capture the causality be-
Figure 3e. In the lower and middle quantiles (0.1–0.65) of CO2 and ICT, tween ICT and CO2 in the top 10 ICT economies. The outcomes of the
the negative and weak effect of ICT on CO2 is evident; however, in the causality are reported in Table 5. For Denmark, at a 5% level of signifi-
higher quantile (0.70–0.90), the effect of ICT on CO2 is positive and cance in quantiles (0.05–0.20 and 0.50–0.80), ICT Granger cause CO2. On
weak. the flip side, there is causality running from CO2 to ICT in quantiles
Figure 3f shows the effect of ICT on CO2 in Norway. In the extreme (0.2–0.3, 0.80 and 0.90). Thus, bidirectional causality between ICT and
tails (0.1–0.40) and (0.70–0.90), the effect of ICT on CO2 is negative; CO2 is affirmed. For Iceland, ICT Granger cause CO2 in quantiles (0.20,
however, in the middle quantiles (0.40–0.65) of CO2 and ICT, the effect 0.50–0.70, 0.80 and 0.90). On the other hand, CO2 Granger cause ICT in
of ICT on CO2 is weak and positive. Figure 4g discloses the effect of ICT quantiles (0.10, 0.20, and 0.50–0.80). In summary, feedback causality
on CO2 in South Korea. In the lower and middle tails (0.1–0.60) of both between ICT and CO2 is affirmed in Iceland.
CO2 and ICT, a positive and weak effect of ICT on CO2 is evident; how- For Japan, at a 5% level of significance Granger causality from ICT to
ever, in quantiles (0.70–0.80) of CO2 and all quantiles (0.1–0.95) of ICT, CO2 is confirmed in quantiles (0.05–0.30, 0.60–0.70 and 0.95). On the
we observe a weak and negative effect of ICT on CO2. Furthermore, in the flip side, there is no support for causality from CO2 to ICT considering all
extreme tail (0.85–0.95) of CO2 emissions and the lower and middle tails quantiles and each quantile. Therefore, there is one-way causality from
(0.1–0.65) of ICT, the influence of ICT on CO2 is weak and positive. ICT to CO2 for Japan. For Luxemburg, at a significance level of 5%, there
Figure 3h shows the influence of ICT on CO2 in Sweden. In the lower and is causality from ICT to CO2 in quantiles (0.10, 0.70 and 0.95). On the flip
middle tails (0.1–0.60), the positive and insignificant influence of ICT on side, no support for causality from CO2 to ICT at a 5% level of signifi-
CO2 is dominant; however, in the extreme tails (0.80–0.95), the negative cance. Therefore, for Iceland, there is unidirectional causality from ICT to
effect of ICT on CO2 is observed. Thus, in the majority of the quantiles, CO2. For the Netherlands, ICT Granger cause CO2 in quantiles
the positive influence of ICT on CO2 is dominant. (0.20–0.30, and 0.8–0.90). In addition, no support for causality from CO2
The influence of ICT on CO2 emissions in Switzerland is depicted in to ICT. Therefore, unidirectional causality is affirmed in the case of the
Figure 3i. In all the quantiles (0.1–0.95), the influence of ICT on CO2 is Netherlands.
negative and significant; however, in the higher tails (0.65–0.95) of CO2 For Norway, in quantiles (0.1–0.2, and 0.6–0.80), ICT Granger cause
and all quantiles (0.1–0.95) of ICT, the negative influence of ICT on CO2 CO2 at a 5% significance level. On the other hand, CO2 Granger cause ICT
is more pronounced. This illustrates that ICT influences CO2 negatively in in quantiles (0.2, 0.6–0.80). Therefore, a feedback causality is established
the majority of the quantiles. Lastly, Figure 3j presents the effect of ICT between ICT and CO2 for the case of Norway. For South Korea, ICT
on CO2 in United Kingdom. In all quantiles (0.1–0.95) of both CO2 and Granger cause CO2 in quantiles (0.4–0.70). On the other hand, CO2
ICT, the negative effect of ICT on CO2 is dominant, suggesting that ICT Granger cause ICT in quantiles (0.10 and 0.60–0.70). Therefore, there is
lessens CO2 in the United Kingdom. evidence of two-way causality at the majority of the quantile for South
Korea. For Sweden, ICT Granger CO2 in quantiles (0.20, 0.40 and
0.60–0.70). On the flipside, CO2 Granger cause ICT in quantiles (0.10,
4.2. Robustness check outcomes for QQR approach
0.30, 0.7 and 0.95) at a 5% level of significance. Therefore, feedback
causal interconnectedness between CO2 and ICT is established for South
The present research checks the validity of the quantile-on-quantile
Korea.
(QQR) by applying the quantile regression (QR). The QR model is
For Switzerland, at all quantiles (0.05–0.40 and 0.80–0.95), at a 5%
based on predicting the θth quantile of ICT on CO2. As a corollary, the
level of significance Granger causality from ICT to CO2 is confirmed.
standard QQ method's parameters are simply indexed by θ. The QQR
Furthermore, no support of causality was found from CO2 to ICT. Lastly,
approach, on the flipside, examines the ICT θth quantile on the CO2 τth
For the United Kingdom, at quantiles (0.05–0.20, 0.40–0.70 and 0.95),
quantile. As a result, the characteristics of the QQR method are indexed
ICT Granger CO2 at 5% significance level. Furthermore, support was
by both and, providing more extensive information than the standard QR
established for causality running from CO2 to ICT. Therefore, on-way
method. As a result, we can simply retrieve the estimates of the classic QR
causality was established running from CO2 to ICT.
method from the QQR method. The QR technique parameters, which are
indexed by θ, can be obtained by taking the simple average of the QQR
estimation parameters along τ. The slope coefficient of the QR model, 4.4. Discussion of findings
represented by γ1(θ), which assesses the influence of ICT on CO2 distri-
butions, can be computed as follows: This section presents a discussion of the findings based on the
methodologies applied. The outcomes of the BDS test validate the use of
1 Xc non-parametric approaches (quantile-on-quantile regression and Granger
γ1 c
β1 ðθÞ ¼ β ðθ; τÞ (9)
S τ 1 causality in quantiles). The outcomes of the QQR disclosed that in the
majority of the quantiles, ICT exerts a negative effect on CO2 for
Where: the quantiles number S ¼ 19 and τ ¼ ½0:05; 0:10; …:; 0:95 is Denmark, Japan, Luxemburg, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the
considered. United Kingdom. This implies that in Denmark, Japan, Luxemburg,
Figure 4 (a-j) backs up our previous QQR method results (see Fig- Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, ICT abates CO2
ures 3 (a-j)). According to the graphs, the slope coefficients average es- emissions. This finding indicates that the use of ICT significantly im-
timates of QQR regression estimations behave similarly to regular QR proves the quality of the environment. As a result, the use of smart
assessment. In a nutshell, these outcomes confirm the QQR technique's electric products, smart grids and home automation technologies not
outcomes. Our empirical findings, as revealed in Figures 4 (a-j), indicate only saves energy but also improves the quality of the environment. The
8
T.S. Adebayo et al. Heliyon 8 (2022) e09108
4a. 4b.
Coefficients
Coefficients
4c. 4d.
Coefficients
Coefficients
4e. 4f.
4g. 4h.
4i. 4j.
Figure 4. (a–j): Comparison of QQR and QR estimates for the impact of ICT on CO2 emissions.
9
T.S. Adebayo et al. Heliyon 8 (2022) e09108
Country Quantiles
0.05 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95
Denmark ICT → CO2 0.082 0.003* 0.003* 0.745 0.328 0.002* 0.010* 0.010* 0.030* 0.316 0.694
CO2 → ICT 0.449 0.194 0.010* 0.020* 0.143 0.551 0.010* 0.051 0.010* 0.010* 0.214
Iceland ICT → CO2 0.010* 0.388 0.010* 0.214 0.010* 0.051 0.347 0.031* 0.010* 0.327 0.010*
CO2 → ICT 0.010* 0.571 0.010* 0.310* 0.531 0.010* 0.010* 0.010* 0.010* 0.153 0.276
Japan ICT → CO2 0.010* 0.010* 0.010* 0.041* 0.122 0.224 0.010* 0.010* 0.327 0.102 0.041*
CO2 → ICT 0.469 0.426 0.589 0.738 0.867 0.133 0.221 0.113 0.412 0.469 0.194
Luxemburg ICT → CO2 0.357 0.020* 0.051 0.031* 0.184 0.592 0.112 0.010* 0.327 0.102 0.041*
CO2 → ICT 0.245 0.469 0.441 0.052 0.061 0.224 0.026* 0.310 0.721 0.121 0.194
Netherland ICT → CO2 0.201 0.422 0.010* 0.010* 0.053 0.764 0.274 0.020* 0.010* 0.041* 0.271
CO2 → ICT 0.214 0.112 0.051 0.031* 0.184 0.592 0.112 0.232 0.327 0.102* 0.051
Norway ICT → CO2 0.204 0.010* 0.010* 0.065 0.310 0.010* 0.010* 0.010* 0.020* 0.541 0.449
CO2 → ICT 0.041 0.051 0.010* 0.520 0.102 0.061 0.092 0.071 0.010* 0.173 0.408
South Korea ICT → CO2 0.551 0.480 0.516 0.120 0.010* 0.010* 0.010* 0.010* 0.143 0.888 0.520
CO2 → ICT 0.112 0.010* 0.410 0.310 0.531 0.980 0.010* 0.010* 0.582 0.728 0.745
Sweden ICT → CO2 0.045* 0.469 0.010* 0.010* 0.041* 0.224 0.010* 0.010* 0.010* 0.010* 0.194
CO2 → ICT 0.357 0.010* 0.051 0.031* 0.184 0.592 0.112 0.010* 0.327 0.102 0.041*
Switzerland ICT → CO2 0.010* 0.010* 0.010* 0.010* 0.010* 0.112 0.537 0.164 0.010* 0.010* 0.010*
CO2 → ICT 0.081 0.121 0.110* 0.263 0.091 0.643 0.384 0.051 0.650 0.544 0.546
United Kingdom ICT → CO2 0.011* 0.010* 0.010 0.054 0.656 0.021* 0.041* 0.011* 0.172 0.269 0.010*
CO2 → ICT 0.251 0.269 0.310 0.432 0.925 0.172 0.066 0.551 0.062 0.073 0.194
Table 5 unveils the sub-sampling p-values of the DT test. The log-difference of CO2 emissions in a quarter is depicted by ΔCO2t, and the log difference of ICT is illustrated
by ΔICTt. * stands for significance level of 5%. The dismissal of the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level is illustrated by *.
research showed that ICT could aid in the reduction of air pollution such on the environment. In addition, the usage and installation of ICT
as e-news and reading online books instead of printed versions, using equipment consume more energy. As a result of this rapid growth in the
electronic mail instead of paper mail, utilizing food services online ICT sector, more energy is used, which is the primary source of CO2
instead of hotels, shopping online instead of using physical markets, as emissions. Previous studies by Salahuddin et al. (2018), Palvia et al.
well as online learning and online conferences instead of attending (2018), and Moyer & Hughes (2012) assessed the interconnectedness
school. As a result, it can reduce fuel usage while also indirectly lowering between CO2 emissions and ICT and found that ICT use affects energy
pollution levels. In addition, the widespread use of ICT in daily life aids in consumption, which subsequently increases CO2 emissions.
energy conservation, such as the efficient use of smartphones, laptops, Moreover, regarding the findings from the Granger causality in
and other small ICT devices. As a result, the governments of Denmark, quantiles, ICT can significantly predict CO2 for all the selected nations.
Japan, Luxemburg, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Thus, policymakers in Denmark, Japan, Luxemburg, Norway, Sweden,
Kingdom must devote more resources to delivering smart technology to South Korea, Netherlands, Iceland, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom
the general public and raising knowledge about the use of ICT tools. The should be cautious regarding the importance of ICT since it can increase
study of Chatti (2021) for 43 nations from 2002 to 2014 reported a (decrease) CO2. Thus, policymakers in these nations should formulate
similar result. Furthermore, the research of Ben Lahouel et al. (2021) that policies towards the effective utilization of ICT.
used a dataset between 1970 and 2018 for Tunisia reported similar
findings by establishing a negative ICT-CO2 interconnectedness. 5. Conclusion and policy direction
Conversely, for the case of South Korea, Netherlands, and Iceland, in
the majority of the quantiles, the effect of ICT on CO2 is positive, sug- 5.1. Conclusion
gesting that in these nations, an upsurge in ICT contributes to the
degradation of the environment. Surprisingly, the actual findings have ICT has had an impact on the quality of the environment, much like
revealed the fallacy of the theory that ICT may improve the quality of the all other modern technologies. Nevertheless, there is a debate among
environment. In addition, this implies that excessive use of the Internet scholars and environmentalists as to whether ICT contributes to the
by users is damaging the environment with a significant amount of CO2 degradation of the environment by consuming large amounts of energy
emissions caused by electricity consumption. In the literature, this and transmitting toxic materials during production or whether it signif-
problem has been documented, with the outcomes indicating both an icantly mitigates CO2 emissions by minimizing the consumption of en-
indirect and direct impact on CO2. According to Irawan (2014), the usage ergy as a result of its efficient and smart role, particularly in the energy
of ICT has a negative impact on the environment as a result of GHG sector and more broadly in society. Therefore, the present study assesses
emissions. According to Palvia et al. (2018)Palvia et al. (2018), increased the effect of ICT on CO2 emissions in the top 10 ICT nations (Denmark,
usage of the internet would result in an upsurge in electricity demand, Japan, Luxemburg, South Korea, Netherlands, Iceland, Norway, Sweden,
resulting in higher emissions. Despite the fact that ICT is required to Switzerland, and the United Kingdom). The current paper utilizes non-
implement environmental rules, its use is unregulated (Sun and Kim, parametric approaches (such as quantile-on-quantile regression and
2021). Furthermore, worldwide ICT usage, including computer equip- Granger causality in quantiles) to assess this interconnectedness. The
ment, generates 2% of global GHG emissions by utilizing more than 3.9 outcomes of the BDS test for all the nations under investigation affirm the
percent of global power (Malmodin et al., 2010). This suggests that ICT utilization of non-parametric approaches. Furthermore, the outcomes of
has a favorable impact on GHG emissions. Although ICT plays an the quantile-on-quantile (QQR) revealed interesting findings. Firstly, we
important role in social and economic progress, it also has harmful effects observed that for the case of Denmark, Japan, Luxemburg, Norway,
10
T.S. Adebayo et al. Heliyon 8 (2022) e09108
Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, ICT abates CO2 emis- Ephraim Bonah Agyekum, Hossam M. Zawbaa and Salah Kamel:
sions. This implies that the utilization of ICT in these nations enhances Analyzed and interpreted the data; Wrote the paper.
the quality of the environment. Secondly, for the case of South Korea, the Mehmet Altuntaş and Sadriddin Khudoyqulov: Performed the exper-
Netherlands, and Iceland, in the majority of the quantiles, the effect of iments; Contributed reagents, materials, analysis tools or data; Wrote the
ICT on CO2 emissions is positive, suggesting that in these nations, an paper.
upsurge in ICT contributes to the degradation of the environment.
Moreover, the outcomes of the Granger causality in the quantiles Funding statement
approach unveiled that ICT and CO2 can predict each other for the ma-
jority of the countries. Hossam M. Zawbaa was supported by the European Union's Horizon
2020 research and Enterprise Ireland for their support under the Marie
5.2. Policy suggestions Skłodowska-Curie (grant agreement No. 847402).
Based on the outcomes obtained, several policy suggestions are pro- Data availability statement
posed. The results not only add to the current body of knowledge, but
they also demand special consideration from policymakers in the coun- Data will be made available on request.
tries involved. Firstly, Denmark, Japan, Luxemburg, Norway, Sweden,
Switzerland, and the United Kingdom should encourage the development Declaration of interests statement
of the ICT industry in the low-carbon economy. Sustainable ICT should be
adopted to guarantee that ICT equipment is used in an environmentally The authors declare no conflict of interest.
responsible manner and that the ICT sector continues to grow in the long
run in Denmark, Japan, Luxemburg, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and
Additional information
the United Kingdom. Furthermore, sustainable ICT should also be used to
improve carbon reduction and energy savings potential by optimizing
No additional information is available for this paper.
other industries, including managing and monitoring energy usage in
industrial production.
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