Climate Change and Adaptation

Geoff Tooley
Senior Manager: Catchment Management
 Durban’s climate future

• Higher temperatures
• Generally wetter and more variability in rainfall
• Increased storm intensity

IMPACTS: Increased flooding and reduced water quality

MUNICIPAL ADAPTATION PLANS – WATER SECTOR - FLOODING

ETHEKWINI MUNICIPALITY
MUNICIPAL ADAPTATION PLANS – WATER SECTOR - FLOODING

•General Circulation Models (GCMs)

are coarse and have difficulties in
simulating individual convective
rainfall events.
•Output from multiple GCMs is used
in order to obtain a more
representative perspective from
that of any one single climate
model.
•The GCMs were downscaled to a
regional model by the Climate
Systems Analysis Group (CSAG) at
the University of Cape Town.
•The regional model was then used
to produce climatic and hydrological
output for each of the 5 838
hydrologically interlinked Quinary
Catchments that make up South
Africa

ETHEKWINI MUNICIPALITY
MUNICIPAL ADAPTATION PLANS – WATER SECTOR - FLOODING

flowrates

Increasing development

0
Tc

Time
ETHEKWINI MUNICIPALITY
MUNICIPAL ADAPTATION PLANS – WATER SECTOR - FLOODING

flowrates

Climate change

0
Tc

Time
ETHEKWINI MUNICIPALITY
MUNICIPAL ADAPTATION PLANS – WATER SECTOR - FLOODING

RECOMMENDATIONS

•In evaluating design rainfall of both short duration (5 minutes to 24 hours) and
longer duration (1, 2 and either 3 or 7 days) there was often little spatial
coherence/uniformity in the ratio changes, but based on the evidence
presented one recommendation would be to increase design rainfalls currently
applied by ~ 15 %, and in the case that design streamflows should be used
directly, these should be increased by 20 %.
•It is further recommended that results from the design streamflow analysis
presented in this study not be used directly, but rather to adjust the design
rainfall in the hydraulic models currently used by the Metro’s engineers because
these models explicitly or implicitly also account for local topography, channel
characteristics as well as for present and projected land uses.

ETHEKWINI MUNICIPALITY
 2009
MUNICIPAL ADAPTATION PLANS – WATER SECTOR - FLOODING
• W9 -Protect and restore riparian vegetation so as to protect integrity
of river banks and retain biological buffers against flooding.
Implementation plan (including policy framework Outcome
for addressing issue)
Initiate a 'Working for Rivers' programme on a Reed beds and wetlands retained. Ecosystem
catchment by catchment basis services secured
Reduced risk of flooding to residential and
public property.

Responsible Parties Resource Availability Funding Source National and Provicial

Support
Coastal and None at present eThekwini Municipality Provincial support at
Stormwater Catchment EPWP government present through
Management program “working for water”
program
The Challenge

Alien Vegetation and Solid Waste

 Summary of the problem
• Alien vegetation grows faster with shallow root system that crowds out
slower growing deep rooted indigenous plants – increased
temperatures due to climate change will accelerate this growth.
• Alien vegetation with the shallow root system is easily pulled out of the
riverbanks during a flood.
• The exposed riverbanks are more easily eroded. – greater volumes of
silt, larger trees are undermined and form part of the flotsam in the
river, sewers and infrastructure along the river are more easily
undermined.
• Alien vegetation and trees form the primary blockage which collects all
the solid waste in the flow. – Most of the solid waste would travel
through the culverts without causing a blockage.
• The blockage causes the overtopping and the associated damage to
road and service infrastructure.
• Climate change induced rainfall intensity increases will increase the
frequency of these events
 SIHLANZIMVELO
(We care for our environment)
• 105 co-ops
• +/- 800 workers
• 525 km of stream
• R43 million per annum
• Removing Solid waste
• Removing Alien
vegetation
• Reporting sewer leaks
• Vegetable gardens
Before

After

2011 to present
 R1.9 billion
avoided
damage to
The Case for municipal
culverts
City-wide
Transformative R7.5 billion
public &
Riverine Additional
green private
R12 to
R24 billion
economy
investment in societal
Management opportunitie
s over 20 benefits
years
R1 spent = R1.80 to
R3.40 municipal &
societal benefits (incl.
coastal)
> 9000
jobs
The Tested Solution – Separated Debris Walls and Culvert capacity Upgrades

Completed Debris Walls

Mugabe Road -moving the blockage upstream.

The Tested Solution – Separated Debris Walls

Debris Walls after first storm

Mugabe Road -moving the blockage upstream.

 FEWS
Information Dissemination and Management

FEWS Models
Rain and river - Hydraulic
observations
- Import
- Process
Radar rainfall - Store
- Prepare Product Partner
Global rainfall - Manage generation agencies
forecasts - Validate

Public
Implementation started 2014 Archiving
 FEWS process
• SAWS provides 3 Day Forecast every 12 hours
• The FEWS system runs the river hydraulic models every 12 hours
• The FEWS system then highlights if any critical point alert level is likely to be
exceeded.
• The Coastal, Stormwater and Catchment Management(CSCM) team then
monitors the forecasts and informs Disaster management through a Whatsapp
group of any alerts shown by the system.
• CSCM also liaises with the South African Weather Service (SAWS) team and
assesses other global forecast models.
• Disaster Management then instructs communications on public
announcements on the back of SAWS warnings.
• CSCM monitors the real time Rain Gauges, Level gauges and the SAWS
radar to assess the severity of the storm and its directions.
• This information is fed via a Whatsapp group to Disaster Management who
informs communities.
HYDRAULIC MODELS
Palmiet River
 Quarry Road Settlement
Communication plan
Whatsapp grp
• UKZN
FEWS Team
• NGOs
• City officials
Community
members

Community
Communnity members
Disaster Leaders
Management Whatsapp grp Community
members
 Quarry Road Settlement

Pinetown Rain
Gauge Palmiet Stream Gauge

Palmiet River
Monitoring Tools

Radar

Pinetown Rain Gauge

Palmiet Stream Gauge

Proactive Interventions (Eliminate the stormwater problems before they happen)
Spatial Plans - Floodlines

eThekwini Northern Spatial eThekwini Umkomaas

Development Plan Local Area Plan
The South African Guidelines for Sustainable
Systems www.wsud.co.za

WRC Report No. 1826/1/13

 Adaptation
• Understand the possible climate impacts
• Responding to present development and risks
– Sihlanzimvelo – management of our ecological infrastructure to
ensure resilience
– Debris Walls
– Design of Repairs
– FEWS (Forecast Early Warning System)
• Responding to the future development
– Sw bylaws and policies
– Floodlines used in development control include climate forecasts
– Stormwater management plans for new developments to include
climate impacts.- Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems
– Design of new infrastructure to include for climate predicted
impacts
 Geoff Tooley
Coastal Stormwater and Catchment
Management Department, eThekwini
Municipality
[email protected]

Thank You +27 31 311 7271

+27 83 469 8060