Probability Theory I

LECTURE 1

1 Counting Rules Used in Probability

1.1 What this lecture is all About
In this lecture, you will learn how to use some common symbols and notation
used to describe different expressions and mathematical operations such as sum-
mation, multiplication, etc. You will also learn counting rules that are used to
calculate probabilities of events.
By the end of this lecture, you should be able to:
1. express sums using the summation notation;
2. express products using the product notation;
3. define a random experiment;

4. express factorial products using the factorial;

5. compute and distinguish between permutations and combinations;
6. state the Binomial Theorem.

1.2 Summation Notation

Many problems in probability are solved by summing
P different numbers. It is
convenient for this purpose to use the notation for the summation operation.
The lower and upper limits of the summation are indicated at the bottom and
top of the summation sign, respectively. An indexing variable such as i, j, k or
n may be used to indicate the items or numbers that are being summed.

1.2.1 Example
Express each of the following sums using the summation sign.
(i) 1 + 2 + 3
1 1 1
(ii) 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + ...

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1.2.2 Solution
Required to express in summation notation.
P3
(i) 1 + 2 + 3 = i=1 i
P∞
(ii) 1 + 12 + 14 + 18 + . . . = j=0 21j

1.2.3 Activity
P
Express the following sums using the notation.
1 1 1
(i) 1 − 2 + 4 − 8 + ...
1 1 1
(ii) (1)(2) + (2)(3) + (3)(4) + ...
1 1 1
(iii) (1)(2) − (2)(3) + (3)(4) − ...

(iv) 13 + 23 + 33 + . . . + 103
(v) sin(π) + sin(2π) + sin(3π) + . . . + sin(100π)

1.3 Product Notation

In someQcases, summation and multiplication are used in conjunction. The
symbol is used for multiplication or product.

1.3.1 Example
Express each of the following products using the product sign.
(i) 12 = (3)(4)
(ii) 48 = (3)(4)(4)

1.3.2 Solution
Q4
(i) 12 = (3)(4) = j=3 j
Q3
(ii) 48 = (3)(4)(4) = j=1 xj where x1 = 3, x2 = 4, and x3 = 4.

1.3.3 Activity
Express each of the following products using the product sign.
(i) 1(2)(3)(4 . . . n)
(ii) 12 13 41 15 . . . 101

(iii) 1 × − 12 × 14 × − 18 × . . . × − 128
1

1 1 1 9
(iv) (1)(2) × (2)(3) × (3)(4) × ... × 10

2
 (v) 13 × 23 × 33 × . . . × 63
(vi) sin(π) × sin(2π) × sin(3π) × . . . × sin(100π)

1.4 Random Experiments

In order to make meaningful conclusions about a system, we must first observe,
i.e., conduct an experiment on the system. An important concept in probability
is that of an experiment.

1.4.1 Definition
A random experiment is any repeatable operation or procedure whose outcome
cannot be predicted with certainty.
It is important to note that the above definition of an experiment includes,
and is much broader than the one used in the experimental sciences such as
Physics, Chemistry, Biology, etc., where the basic idea is that if an experiment
is repeated any number of times under identical or nearly identical conditions,
then the same results must be obtained. However, some experiments can yield
significantly different results if repeated under essentially identical conditions.

1.4.2 Activity
1. Suppose that you want to toss a coin 10 times. Can you tell in advance
the number of heads that you will get? Why or why not?
2. Describe at least one experiment which is not random. Justify your an-
swer.
The next section presents some basic principles of counting which will be
used to calculate various probabilities.

1.5 Basic Principles of Counting

The computation of the probability of an event often requires enumeration or
counting of the number of different ways that the event can occur. Such enu-
meration can be tedious. To facilitate the counting process, one can use basic
principles of counting. The mathematical theory of counting is Combinato-
rial Analysis. This section contains counting principles that are often used in
probability.

1.6 The Fundamental Principle of Counting

1.6.1 Proposition
Suppose that two experiments are performed. If the first experiment can result
in any one of n1 possible outcomes and for each outcome of experiment 1, there
are n2 possible outcomes of experiment 2, then there are altogether n1 × n2
possible outcomes of the two experiments.

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1.6.2 Example
Suppose that in an election for the posts of president and deputy president,
there are 5 candidates for presidency and 2 candidates for the post of deputy
president. Suppose also that only one candidate can be elected for each post.
In how many different ways can the two posts be filled?

1.6.3 Solution
From the above basic principle of counting, the two posts can be filled in 5×2 =
10 different ways.
The above fundamental principle of counting can easily be generalized to
more than two experiments. That is, if there are r experiments, each having
ni , i = 1, 2, . . . , r possible outcomes, then there are altogether n1 × n2 × . . . × nr
possible outcomes of the r experiments.

1.6.4 Example
A steering committee for the BSc General Degree in Mathematics and Statistics
consists of 2 chairmen of departments, 1 coordinator, 2 secretaries, and 2 ex-
officio members. Suppose that a sub-committee of 4 members consisting of 1
member from each group is to be chosen. How many different sub-committees
are possible?

1.6.5 Solution
From the generalized version of the basic principle of counting, it follows that
there are 2 × 1 × 2 × 2 = 8 possible sub-committees.

1.6.6 Activity
How many two-letter words consisting of a consonant and a vowel can be formed?

1.7 Factorial Notation

1.7.1 Definition
Let n be a positive integer. Then the number n!, read n factorial, is defined by:

n! = n(n − 1)(n − 2) . . . 1 (1.1)

Thus 2! = 2(1) = 2, 3! = 3(2)(1) = 6. By convention, 0! = 1.

1.7.2 Activity
Find:
(i) 3!
(ii) 4!

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(iii) 10!

1.8 Permutations, Ordered Samples

1.8.1 Definition
A permutation of n objects taken r at a time is an ordered selection or arrange-
ment of r objects out of n objects. For example, there are 2 permutations of
the numbers 1, 2, namely 1, 2 and 2, 1. In our work, we shall be concerned
mostly with the number of possible permutations rather than the permutations
themselves.

1.8.2 Proposition
The total number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time, denoted by
nPr , is given by:
n!
nPr = = n(n − 1) . . . (n − r + 1).
(n − r)!
Note that if r = n, then nPn = n!.

1.8.3 Example
How many different ordered arrangements of the letters a, b, c are possible in
each of the following cases?
(i) Taking 3 items at a time?
(ii) Taking 2 items at a time?

1.8.4 Solution
(i) There are 3P3 = 3! = 6 permutations. These are {abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, cba}.
3!
(ii) There are 3P2 = (3−2)! = 6 different ways. These are {ab, ba, ac, ca, bc, cb}.

1.8.5 Proposition
If there are n objects, of which n1 are of the same type (i.e., alike or indis-
tinguishable), n2 are of a second type, and nr are of the r-th type, then there
are:
n!
n1 !n2 ! . . . nr !
different ways of permuting the objects.

1.8.6 Example
How many different permutations (ordered arrangements) of the letters of the
word MISSISSIPPI are possible?

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1.8.7 Solution
The word MISSISSIPPI has a total of 11 letters consisting of 1 M , 4 I’s, 4 S’s,
and 2 P ’s. Therefore, there are:
11!
= 34650
1!4!4!2!
permutations of the letters.
In a permutation, we are interested in determining the number of ordered
arrangements of n objects taken r at a time. In this case, {a, b} is considered
to be a different permutation from {b, a}.

1.8.8 Activity
1. Find:
4!
(i) 4P3 = (4−3)!

(ii) 8P2
(iii) 5P1

(iv) 100P90
2. How many different ordered arrangements of the letters a, b, c, d, e are possible
taking 4 at a time?

1.9 Combinations, Unordered Samples

1.9.1 Definition
A combination of n objects taken r at a time is an unordered selection of r
objects from a total of n objects. For example, there are 3 possible combinations
of the letters {a, b, c} taking 2 letters at a time, namely {a, b}, {a, c}, {b, c}.

1.9.2 Proposition
The number of
combinations of r objects selected from a total of n objects,
denoted by nr or nCr , is given by:
 
n n!
= (1.2)
r r!(n − r)!

1.9.3 Example
A committee of 3 is to be formed from a group of 10 people. How many different
committees are possible?

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1.9.4 Solution
There are:  
10 10 10! 10 × 9 × 8
C3 = = = = 120
3 3!7! 3×2×1
possible committees.

1.9.5 Activity
(a) Evaluate:
(i) 4r

(ii) 9 C7
(iii) 83

10
(iv) C8
100


(v) 90

(b) In how many ways can a committee of 6 be formed from a group of 15

people?

1.10 Remark
The numbers nr are often called Binomial coefficients because they arise as

coefficients in a theorem called the Binomial Theorem.

1.11 1.6 Binomial Theorem

1.11.1 Theorem
Let a and b be real numbers and n be a positive integer. Then:
      n  
n n−1 n n−2 2 n n X n j n−j
(x+y)n = xn + x y+ x y +. . .+ y = x y (1.3)
1 2 n j=0
j

1.11.2 Example
Find the binomial expansion of:
(i) (1 + x)2
(ii) (a + b)3

1.11.3 Solution
(i) (1 + x)2 = 20 x0 + 21 x1 + 22 x2 = 1 + 2x + x2

(ii) (a + b)3 = 30 a3 b0 + 31 a2 b1 + 32 a1 b2 + 33 b3 = a3 + 3a2 b + 3ab2 + b3

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1.11.4 Activity
Find the binomial expansion of:
(i) (1 − x)2

(ii) (2 + x)3
(iii) (2 − 3x)5
(iv) (5 + 0.4x)10

1.12 Summary of the Lecture

In this Lecture, you have learned the mathematical notation used to express
sums andPproducts in a compact
Q form. In particular, you have learned how to
use the notation and the notation. You have also learned different rules
of counting that are frequently used in probability. These include the Basic
Principles of Counting, rules for computing Permutations and Combinations.
You have been introduced to an important theorem called the Binomial Theo-
rem, which forms the basis of an important probability distribution called the
Binomial distribution that you will learn later in this module.

1.13 Exercise
1 Evaluate:
3
X
i2
i=1

2 Find in terms of n, the product:

n
Y K
cr , where 0 < r < 1
k=1

3 A woman has 3 skirts and 2 blouses. In how many ways can the woman
choose a skirt and a blouse to wear?

4 How many different 7-place car license numbers are possible if the first 6
places are to be occupied by numbers and the last one by a letter?
5 A committee of 5 is to be formed from a group of 7 men and 5 women.
How many different committees consisting of 3 men and 2 women are
possible?

6 A police department in Harare consists of 10 officers. If the department

policy is to have 5 officers on patrol, 2 officers working full-time at a sta-
tion, and 3 officers on reserve at the station, how many different divisions
of the 10 officers are possible?

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 7 Find the binomial expansion of (1 + x)4 .
8 Find the coefficient of x7 in the binomial expansion of (1 − 2x)10 .
9 Show that the number of all possible subsets of the set {1, . . . , n} is 2n .

10 Let 0 ≤ p ≤ 1. Prove that:

n  
X n
py (1 − p)n−y = 1.
y=0
y